♪ >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street."

i'm carl kiquintanilla and melis lee. we turn to black friday and all things retail. we might get records for the s&p and the nasdaq at least at the open euro at the six-week high against the dollar having the best run since july. europe is up and oil is the other story, that's a two and a half year high and that opec meeting next week. our roadmap begins with the season for shopping. retailers have focused on the holiday shortened day. >> macy's hoping the post thanksgiving spending free will end a three-year sale slump. >> a massive data breach made public on tuesday and now reports the new ceo has known about the hack for months. it is black friday, the official start of the holiday shopping season many shoppers already got a head start. by last night consumers had spend $1.5 billion online. consumer spending up nearly 17%

year on year until 5:00 p.m. last night according to adobe analystics which tracks online transactions at the top 100 retailers. i think the headline in the journal today on front page is shoppers flock to phones we're going to talk all morning long about the implications for store traffic and real estate and sales in general. >> yeah, you're waiting for a turkey to cook in the kitchen and you've got your phone there. sometimes it's just wait and see. >> should be called cyber thursday, thanksgiving is now cyber thurg for shopping, right. >> in terms of marvegts, remarke remarkets, retailers have taken into consideration this is a better than expected sales season, up 8% in the past two weeks alone. we have a bit of a run into this black friday season. >> it's an interesting moment because you had the peak panic for retail apocalypse after amazon whole foods into july then you're up big depending on subsector up 20% and now there's a season the season might be good enough and

consumers in a good mood, there's enough to go around in a sense for everybody. >> although, is this true after thanksgiving -- >> stocks don't do well in december typically. >> it's into the date best time to own. >> then after, then july into the first quarter -- january, sorry. >> thanksgiving shoppers getting an early start macy's opened at 5:00. here's more from jeff gannette, i watched you cut the ribbon with al roker, what a great perk in your line of work i wonder your take on what adobe is telling us about the jump of people shopping on their phone ahead of black friday. is that going to be evident to you and the way in which you track foot traffic

>> you know, we had a good start to the fourth quarter and black friday was very strong online as well as the traffic that came into our stores last night and that are here today in our stores so good start to the whole black friday shopping season >> does it feel though like less of a crush in the store itself >> you know, actually, depending on where it is in the country, so we're blessed right now with cold weather so in the northern part of the country and in certainly here in the northeast, the traffic in our stores is slightly better than last year >> jeff, i'm wondering how committed you are at macy's to maintaining price discipline when it comes to promotion we always see this big surge over black friday and shoppers tend to wait and now bargains are going to come. so they wait until the 40% signs come up on a permanent basis are you committed to remaining disciplined or willing to bank roll discounts in order to bring shoppers in?

>> you know, i think this fournl quarter was very planned we didn't have any carry over from all of our third quarter inventory. it was in really good place. when you look at all of the promotions they were planned we start the planning process for black friday and all of our holiday values a year out. and so we're in good place and the promotions have beeratid and great values planneded great to see them show up last night and online in response to the great values we have we're in a good place with that. >> you and others in the industry talk about trying to change the in-store experience, would there be a noticeable difference in how space is used and how things look in your stores across the country this season versus last or is that just sort of a broader ongoing project? >> no, it's a broader ongoing project but certainly differences this year versus last year.

we have a lot more lease options that we have in our stores so if you're here in herald store and done with beta and samsung experience lens crafters is taking up space in our stores, big service customers expect and we'll continue to build on this. we have opportunities to be more productive in our stores and we're constantly looking for next thing to bring in either new categories we're going to own or a new lease partnership that we'll bring in with partners. expect we'll get more interesting in years to come but definitely made inroads and we're a best destination with a better experience this year than last year. >> speaking of making stores more productive, times did a piece a few days ago about the value of your real estate, exceeding your market cap and the suggestion that there's room to develop at least upper floors of some of your flagship properties how far along are you in that and is the street -- do they

understand your intentions where you want to take that? >> yes, i'd say we've been pretty clear about how we look at our real estate portfolio and the individual assets we've been monday tiesing, the brookfield deal for the 50 properties and the flagship properties that you're mentioning. if you look what we did with seattle, some of the upper floors -- we monetized those and currently looking at and been clear about state street and working on that. in herald square, this is a complicated property we're looking at every inch of this floor to make sure that we're monetizing it froeptly for shareholders nothing is off the table but it's a complicated project and we're going to make sure we're doing it right. >> a way to bring traffic in might be a partnership of some sort when you look at what amazon has done with kohl's for instance, we just talked to the kohl's ceo last week, in the experimental stage still but the traffic has come up because people are coming into the store to return

amazon goods could something like that be attractive to you? do you look at that and say that's something we could do too? >> what i'd say is that we're looking at all of those opportunities. one of the reasons we've been so bullish about buy online pick up in store, with the robust online demand is for that exact reason. customers love the experience when they come into a building and being able to see things when they are picking up something they ordered online but we're looking at other partners and opportunities to bring new traffic into the building is on the table >> have you talked to amazon >> i'm not going to comment on that >> when are you going to know typically in this season if you've gotten it right, if the mix is right, if the quarter is pacing the way you expected with the planned promotions >> what i'd say is we have a

very strong start to the fourth quarter. we're four weeks in and we have five big weeks ahead of us that's a marathon for us so what we're really focused on making happy customers and earning a dollar every single day. what we look at is obviously how the registers are ringing and how the customers are experiencing the brand and what they are saying about it and what our associates and management is telling us about are we getting it right. if the final day we've got a big quarter ahead of us. you saw we affirmed guidance at the end of the third quarter four weeks in, strong start, five weeks to go we want to make that customer happy and earn a dollar every single day >> i want to get your take on categories as well, the journal has a statistic this morning that last year discounts at this stage were 6% deeper than they are now across 17 categories, you said they'll be less promotion. does that number sound about right and are there certain categories where pricing power is especially strong

>> you know what i'd say, let me talk about how we're doing when you look at the cold weather categories, we've had a strong start on that those generally carry higher unit retails, if you look at coach and sweaters and boots, those are strong categories that carry higher averaging of retail the entire fragrance category, we're the largest purveyor of frig rans, very strong start in the fourth quarter big, big brands that are winning there. if you look at the tech categories which carry higher averaging at retail. the apple watch and then look at our values and all of our great fashion product we work with our manufacturing partners a year in advance, all of that is trending well when we've got a built in product that they are responding with their pocketbook, i'm saying aurs higher than last year right now >> jeff, your dividend yield is more than 7% right now, 7.3% to be exact

some people might look at that as a sign of distress, are you committed to maintaining this dividend as is >> yes, we are -- our board of directors looks at this regularly. we just confirmed that going forward with the current guidance and on the dividend, going forward so we're going to continue to review it but we're committed right now. >> so then this quarter, the way this quarter goes for you in terms of cash flow and things is not necessarily kind of make or break either for the dividend or for your outlook for this year >> so we look at our capital structure, first thing to make sure we have enough capital to fund the business. then we look at our dividend we're committed to our dividend and making sure we're within our -- when you look at our leverage ratios, getting back to our historic levels you're going to see apply down debt there versus necessarily buying back stock. expect that to continue into the new year >> in three weeks what product

are we going to be talking about in terms of shortages and cult fascination and something that parents or adults want and simply can't find? >> you know what i'd say, a lot of the tech products, you're seeing that. some of the home products that have technology built into them, there's some interesting items that we're selling out of in our stores a lot of that we can get back into some of it will be a reduced supply of it it comes down to what fashion and other gift she wants and ma macy's, we spend a lot of time with merchants and creating the best possible values and fashions so we feel we're in good shape going into the balance of the holiday season the month of november has been strong so far but five weeks to go we've got to earn our dollar every day. >> and people want to buy apparel, jeff, that has traditionally or recently been the category that has seen softness across the retail industry, people don't want to buy sweaters anymore

>> yes, she does want to buy apparel. there is -- there's obviously a lot of competition for apparel both online and in stores. but when we get our values right and get the right fashion for our customer, she responds well, again, as i said also, when you look at apparel, particularly during the fourth quarter when it is cold outside, that really helps our overall apparel business she comes in because she needs a coat but will buy other things, buys that sweater but also buy gifts for herself or people on her list so apparel is still a big driver of traffic and she's still out there transacting. >> jeff, crazy day for you and shoppers, we appreciate you setting some time aside for us we'll see you soon >> thanks much >> jeff gennette of macy's. >> when we come back, a look at the best deals for company performance and look at the premarket, a week to go for the

month of november, dow and s&p are on track for the eighth consecutive up month more "squawk on the street" in a minute [ keyboard clacking ] [ click ] [ keyboard clacking ] [ clacking continues ] good questions lead to good answers. our advisors can help you find both. talk to one today and see why we're bullish on the future. yours. talk to one today and see why we're bullish on the future. i'm here to talk to you about how at&t gives you more. and so am i. like how when you buy the amazing new iphone 8 you get another one on us. see we give you more phones and more spokespeople. are you guys doing a spokesperson thing right now? yes. awesome, can i be in it? well, it's kind of like a two-phone deal. so two spokespeople. got it. k.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." up to 60% of the consumers are expected to shop this black friday courtney reagan joins us live from woodbridge, new jersey. >> reporter: i'm out here with 115 million americans may be shopping this black friday yes, thanksgiving has changed the timing of what we see over this weekend with shoppers going out at night for those big box deals. shopping online but today still expected to be retail's biggest day ever the year. traffic at this mall is beginning to pick up but there certainly were early deal seekers and we spoke to them >> we got up at like 5:30 in the morning and headed here as soon as it opened and the sales are amazing. >> reporter: a few stores but for the most part we found really good prices and sales and they had pretty good stock. >> we got really great deals you've got to get here early, a lot end at noon. >> it's nice to see exactly what you're buying, he especially wh'

on sale. >> reporter: the mall of america was closed again on thanksgiving day. it didn't open the doors until this morning i spoke to eddie of keybank, he says the traffic is starting to pick up. and kohl's and jc penny were open all night long and walmart and best buy kicked off door buster deals later in the evening last night shoppers are lining up, it's an annual tradition and based on mobile searches for local retailers, the top three near me retailers this year, best buy followed by target and then walmart. which looks very different from the near me searches last year that was macy's first then walmart then home depot. now so far on thanksgiving and black friday the top viewed items online across retailers according to price blink include amazon echo dot, instant pot cooker, apple ipod and google home mini and amazon fire tv

based on transactions, what's interesting there across all of the big box retailers too, walmart and targets of the world, shoppers are up 5% on thanksgiving day and transactions increased by 26%. that sort of goes to show you they are very targeted and shoppers know exactly what they want and in and off those sites pretty quickly back over to you guys. >> thank you, courtney reagan in woodbridge, new jersey williams sonoma has been rebounding after that earnings release. the ceo lauraalber discussed the numbers and push into august meanted reality with the launch of a new app >> we've been working with them for three years building a lot of models for our websites so you can see around a product and spin and sofa and see beyond it and imagine it in different settings but having them as part of our company, allows them both to see

the needs of a retailer from the inside-out and for us to see all of the capabilities of this technology and really improving the shopping experience. we think that this proprietary technology will help us revolutionize the shopping experience. >> joining us now, retail analyst at j.p. morgan and covers williams sonoma and host of other retailers. >> good morning. >> just a quick question on the augmented reality, a lot of the universe, wayfair, home depot people want to use the technology. >> it's really interesting, they take a picture of your room and take all of the furniture and coverings out and then they have millions of items scanned in that you can place that and see that in a 3-d setting. the home furnishing space is becoming much more competitive we double downgraded to a sell

post earnings. and we think they have very rerelevant brands but it's becoming very kpelt tif. home depot cfo talked about amazon making a big effort and spending more on advertising, it's becoming more competitive to be in that space. >> i want to go to the list courtney had mentioned in terms of the items that people are looking up they are all technology, all sort of electronics items and then you pair with that, the launch of the iphone 10 and iphone 8 is that going to take away from sales of soft goods? >> it's always an electronics christmas, past few years it's been 4k large set tvs and this year best buy is being aggressive on the samsum galaxy 8 and switch, some stores already sold out it's been a nice cold november and you're getting good sell through on apparel and you lap the election which caused a

disinterruption. >> the better sentiment and traffic patterns and weather, does that put a big dent inthe structural questions we've been asking all year? >> yes, i think it does. >> it does >> the consumer is better than they were six or 12 months ago you've seen nice acceleration and lifting retail retailers have invested if you look at the annual holiday shopping survey, target used to be 6% more expensive than amazon now they are only two. in line on price and baby and beauty, walmart, you get cheaper in toys. then the other thing is, think about walmart's vision 35 and over, free ship, on more than 2 million items walmart is saying you don't have to pay $99 a year for your amazon prime membership, spend more than 35 on a transaction and we'll give it to you for free. >> chris, thank you. >> when we return on this black friday, the batle for your buck,

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of the world a lot of kids on the floor today as some families bring in their children on this short trading session. black friday adds a nice feel to the trading floor i've got to say. it's a lot more fun. >> festive. >> yes. >> in terms of the markets, we're talking retail all morning, mike but big questions about the things working versus not and the setup for next week, which includes powell's confirmation and opec meeting, a yellen testimony. >> i mean, the market has obviously sort of recovered from that little would bel last week, high yield it was kind of a false alarm and i think you kind of plowed into the stuff already working like the big tech stocks, even though nobody sayswhy they are working that's where the growth is we're going to go there. but i do think right now we're at an interesting moment of somewhere between take it off the table it's been a good year and they always work through december. >> the fear of missing out rally that has taken a grip on

technology when you see the top eight technologies add $1.5 trillion in market cap year to date, you wonder how much better is this going to get >> let's get to the opening bell and the s&p. >> there's the bell at the big board down here it's american express highlighting its eighth annual small business saturday tomorrow at the nasdaq it's youth inc., helping youth serving non-profits in new york city one dynamic that is turning is oil. awfully close to 59 today. that's going back to 2015 levels, we have this outage at key stone, which is lasted longer than some thought and then these reports that opec may have a framework for a deal regarding production. >> the dollar has remained kind of restrained. everyone thought still range bound, maybe 55 was something like going to be tough to get beyond in a lasting way but they are working. the stocks themselves not

necessarily moving dollar for dollar with crude. but it's definitely part of the everything rallying type backdrop we've had oil and bonds remain firm and stocks of course. >> energy stocks are pretty much at the cross section of this notion of do you rotate out of best performing technology and into an under performer like energy stocks. we've seen the energy etf rally since about august levels but the key question here, oil approaches these levels, are american frackers going to come back online and drill, drill, drill and effectively defeat any sort of extension that opec could put in place what's interesting at the opec meeting, the energy trader is going to give a briefing about the american shale industry. that will be an interesting dynamic next week at the opec meeting. basically shale producers are the swing producers these days. >> right. >> you know, even along with that, energy stocks have never actually looked very cheap

i mean the earnings were so depressed for such a long period of time. it's tough for mathematical value guy to say, okay, now they are cheap. >> once again ge will lead the dow, it's happened for a couple of days now as it's back in 18.25 and so teva pharmaceuticals is getting attention over the holiday for these reports from a financial news website that i've never heard of but still saying they are going to cut nearly a quarter of the workforce in israel. >> yes. >> it was an israeli report and that's where the historic home is and the stock is responding, new ceo, seems it's a pretty major stream lining effort. >> it's not entirely a surprise. all sorts of commentary not just from generic news makers but said on the past in earnings calls that the pricing environment is and will remain difficult for generic drug makers in particular we're watching that one. we're also watching deere.

a top performer on wednesday after a very strong forecast deutsche bank is out today upgrading deere to a buy rate ig remember though, it's north america. it's a forecast for construction machinery up 69% expected next year and so that's really confirming this run that we've seen in the shares year to date. >> the ag stocks have kind of played along with it. >> definitely. >> a bunch of targets have been out the last week or so for year end 18 i had to laugh because they are as closes to 3,000 as you can get without putting a three in the number 2950, 2900 at ubs, 2850 at goldman. somebody wants to quite put the magic number on there. >> it could be because -- they converge around 10 to 12%, maybe get up to 15%. it's sort of the round number bashfulness combined with do we really want to build another 15% on top of 16 this year i think the strategies have been

very restrained aend kind of measured in the whole thing, which is not to say they are going to turn bearish reat the right time but they are not saying it's up and away from here in a big way is somewhat telling. >> and some of those who tried to get an off-ramp mid-year -- >> it's been very hard everyone seems to be playing the game of market is expensive, rolling for a long time. we're due for something you uglier than we've seen this year but bull markets have an overshoot to we'll play that. >> retail will play today. macy's is leading the s&p, up better than 3% kohl's along with oil names are going to help out. interesting comments from gennette about categories that are seeing decent pricing power. >> apparel we asked specifically about apparel and women's apparel. that has been a sore spot across the board all year long. the shopper comes in and wants

to buy that sweater and picks up other things i thought some of the other things about macy's, i felt he was very committed to monetization and making maximum use of the real estate and commitment to the dividend is key. when you have a dividend over 7%, you think that's a dividend in danger. how much longer is a retailer going to be able to keep a dividend of 7% he seemed very committed to that dividend, which is going to be a lot of -- very important for a lot of macy's investors willing to be in the stock and wait for the turn in retail but want to get paid to wait >> committed to the dividend but also with a rationale for basically capital spending is in our criminaontrol then we'll get to covering the dividend and maybe hold off on buy back it's a little bit more specific than ge saying it's a top priority to maintain the dividend weeks before you cut the dividend. >> exactly. >> speaking of buy backs, slowest pace in five years for corporate buybacks

running at a half trillion dollar run rate, takes you back to 20 -- 2012 or so. are prices so high that we bought as much as -- >> that phase was active for a while. corporate balance sheets are pretty leveraged, also the market has stopped rewarding the heavy buyback stocks in a consistent way if you look at the etfs, it stopped working. if investors aren't demanding it and look at the merrill lynch survey, what should we do more of and investors -- they are not asking for more buybacks investment in the business and maybe debt paid out. >> you have to wonder if this is wait and see also to see if there's tax policy that will reward them for investing and allow them to expense that capital expenditures >> or if they think they are going to have a tide of repatriated money coming back you can use to pay down or

something. it's interesting that the market has done just fine -- the market has plowed through, it's only qe, only zero% interest rates and buybacks and fang. it hasn't been only all of those things, a bull market feeds on whatever story is in play at any moment. >> right. >> dow is up 40, really quick. even though some retailers are working, others are not, cignet is down and footlocker and airlines on the back of the higher oil number. let's get to dominic chu on the floor. >> what else is moving right now is all of the kids around here it's family day. we'll get to that in a second. they are kind of gathering around me right now. as for the markets, you mentioned a lot of themes that traders will be looking at so far we have the dow up 40 points or so in terms of the overall movements, we're still holding near record highs, not too bad if you look at the -- sector movers out there, we'll keep an eye on technology because it has

been such an outperformer, consumer staples and discretionary some of the big winners in relative trading. retail and telecom maybe the laggards there, it has been one of the big ones this year. a lot of people are still watching, a little of that with the high yield side. we'll start with what's happening with small capitalization stocks. we have small cap stocks doing some underperforming so far but trying to play catch-up over the last few days or so. we caught up in terms of relative performance you can see the s&p and russell in line in terms of at least the month to date gains and dow jones industrial average overall. we have seen performance pickup in the dow transportation just in the last maybe couple of weeks or so. maybe that gap gets closed a little bit another possible leading indicator. on the junk bond side of things, we did see that sell-off in junk bonds. it didn't really materialize into much but a certain part of

the marketplace, traders are watching of the consumer staples one more sector to watch it has been a real lagguard so far this year but it has been one of the better persecute foremaners this month in terms of overall at least performance from that sector names like kellogg, who mel, campbell doing decently. for u.s. here on the floor, all of the attention is on the kids because this is a huge day for families out here. everyone likes to bring their kids in. you want to wave we love cnbc and everything. >> hello world i. >> just got a couple of seconds but i want to ask them how they feel about things. holiday shopping, what do you want for christmas >> i don't know yet. >> how about you >> i don't really know yet. >> it doesn't seem -- >> what about you, christmas what do you want

>> i don't know. >> sky landers, there you go we've got one there. what do you want >> no idea. >> how about you >> clothes >> all right, so we have a lot of people undecided so far with regard to what they want for christmas. i don't know what i want for christmas either but my list is fw going to be pretly long. all of these guys having fun back over to you for the rest of the opening bell side of things in the 9:00 hour until then he'll maybe take a lot more polls and questions with regard to what the hot toys will be. >> dom, the lack of a must have i hope is not read as a bearish signal. >> no, but remember, adobe says billion and a half worth of online goods sold through 5:00 thanksgiving night a lot of people are spending these guys are going to do their part for sure. >> dom, thanks let's get to bertha coombs as well over at the nasdaq. >> hey, carl, as we continue our record run, the nasdaq 100 and

composite both inking records yet again today. dom was talking about sectors, the chip sector today kind of flat as we start however, chips have now been up 11 weeks in a row. as i looked through, i didn't see a span winning span that long ever actually going back to even the red hot late '90s and one of the interesting things, we also saw this week, the philadelphia sunemiconductor inx take out the all time closing eye. up 47% year to date. some of the big winners this week overall that has been the big theme here, along with amazon, also today putting in a new record as amazonstretches into all sorts of different sectors, now beyond retail as well i will tell you, i don't know about the kids but i already bought one of the things on my list and had to buy it through alexa, through voice, that's how they gave you the first discount

on those amazon fire sticks, which was very interesting to buy that as i was cooking on wednesday night. but amazon is not the best performer even as you see big gains for the year as far as retailers here on the nasdaq bucking the trend. a really small cap retailer conn's they have more than doubled and pets med express and bringing up the rear in the top five retailers, five below up 47%. really bucking the trend in the industry overall back to you. >> thank you very much bertha coombs. she mentioned chips, we're watching qualcomm, there's a report on wednesday that broadcom could raise the bid for qualcomm remember hock tan allowed the bid, the board effectively said it was under valued the company significantly. we're waiting to see if this komsz to fruition. we're seeing a bit of a bid for qualcomm shareshigher by .7%

rick santelli is at the cme in chicago. >> good morning, melissa lee it's always fascinating. whenever you see a perfect parallel shift on the curve, most likely that means markets hit some sort of equilibrium would match that requirement yes. we have parallel shift twos through 30s if you look at 24 hour of tens you can see the slight move higher, one week of 10s with the place marker considering the markets were closed gives a pretty good idea we're somewhat treading water and 2.33 never far from view we've gone over what that is sometimes things are pretty easy the low yield and high yield, 2 to the 2.04 and 2 pts 63 the average 2.33, right on the nose look at one year of 10-year bunds, they did trade yesterday and drifted a bit. they popped back that basis point and a half they gave away at the xens of no arbitrage with u.s. markets but all of the

action continues to be in the dollar wow, you talk about breath taking move over the last several sessions, look at one week of the dollar index if you really want to get a good glimpse, open it up to the third week in september. it has been nine weeks since the 25th of september, the dollar index has settled at this level below 93 and finally, what's the beneficiary of that weakness the euro versus the dollar if you look at the september start you can clearly see one high was at 2036 it certainly looks as though the euro dollar is aiming for that despite all of the odds regarding the coalition political issues of the merkel administration carl, melissa lee and mike, back to you >> thank you, rick. it is a battle of bricks versus clicks and come up it later, kathwari will join us.

we see retailers leading the charts the dow up 35 points and s&p up by five and nasdaq up by 11. "squawk on the street" will be right back [vo] when it comes to investing, looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this

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welcome back, this black friday more consumers are expected to shop online than in a physical store deirdre is breaking down electronics deals for amazon versus best buy. >> reporter: good morning, we're in front of a best buy, it opens back up in an hour's time and the line is just starting to fill up. there's maybe 10 to 12 people in line it is filling up quickly while it's been closed we've been digging through deals online and best buy's website and comparing them to what's on offer from amazon. here's what we found so far. let me run through a few of them a 55-inch samsung 4kl.e.d. tv, it is exact same price on best buy's website as well as amazon.com to the penny. $897.99, the 65 and 75-inch models same price.

but here's the rub, best buy is offering actually a quicker delivery, it deliver it three days sooner than amazon can, even if you are a prime member amazon's own devices too, kindle's echo, fire tvs, exact same price as they are on best buy's. a 13-inch macbook air is nearly $200 cheaper at best buy than it is on amazon -- a third party merchant on amazon does have it on offer at that higher price and will deliver it as early as november if you're wondering why all of these people as we are are lined up outside when all of the deals are available online, we spoke to the earliest people to get here we spoke to someone, one of the first guys in line who simply wasn't comfortable with online shopping we found the same deal for him online he considered going back and ordering from his couch. we spoke to another guy who said he simply wanted a computer

right now, not later. >> i need something now. that's probably the only reason to be at outside the stores anymore. >> guys, more and more folks are preferring to from the comfort of their own homes or they're becoming more comfortable buying things online so we're seeing the numbers shift. this year for the first time ever, consumers are expected to spend more money joan online than they are physical stores. back over to you >> deerd ra, thanks fwor that. you know what i'm struck by? we never showed the video, the live picture of the door opening. >> everyone storming in, yes >> unless becky and andrew got the to it earlier today. >> maybe it just doesn't happen any more >> that's what i'm saying. >> fewer engineered shortages at the stores, maybe. >> or why not at 5:00 in the morning when you can go online >>. >> exactly

>> there's a lot more competition. jcpenney, even though it stopped selling electronics, for the past ten years, they've got a -- this is a samsung 55 inch class uhd ultra high def l.e.d. smart tv for $497.99. so they are the entering the fray, too, even from players who are not in electronics any more. >> the deflation in tvs is unbelievable, right? you see those categories .tvs are always at the bottom >> it does raise the question, are the consumers the net winner what is the value you're giving jcpenney to order that thing, right? >> when we come back, new details on uber's breach, when he found out about it and who he told first g ta uppotss uple of in a weeto cole new records in the s&p at 2 6/01 what powers the digital world. communication.

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some new details on uber's massive data breach. the company says it discussed the breach with potential

investor sofbank before it went public on tuesday. uber says it had the duty to disclose the breach to a potential investor even though the information was preliminary and incomplete kosrowshihi learn of the breach more than two months before he discovered it. some reports suggest he wanted to have it investigated fully before he disclosed it, but certainly raising more questions about transparency >> i think it's easy to throw your hands up in the air and say, another thing at uber but at the same time, to be fair, these sorts of breaches, you want to know what the details are before you go ahead and tell the public there. you don't want to create panic you want to get a good grip on what the information is. wouldn't it have been worse if he came out and said i don't know what the details is i know we've been hacked >> presumably when you know the information is no longer out there in play and the idea was that it was erased, it was deleted, then it's about the protocol of saying who was

impacted let's quantify thises as opposed to, as you say, rushing out there. >> companies still trying to figure out where that line is as far as knowledge and exposier. >> i would think private america would want to figure out where that line is before the government steps in. monday at 9:00 a.m. eastern time, we're going to sit down with the ceo of u.p.s. david abney as the holiday season gets under way. a lot of questions for him ahead of, obviously, a big crush in terms of shipping. meanwhile, s&p 500 up 2,601 and the dow up 36 points "squawk on the street" bk a mentacin

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good questions lead to good answers. our advisors can help you find both. talk to one today and see why we're bullish on the future. yours. ♪ ♪ good black friday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla, melissa lee and dave markets are doing okay at the open, up about 40 on the dow, 5 on the s&p oil, of course, getting some

two-year highs under its belt, close to 59. beginning with the super bowl of shopping under way, a shopping check. >> plus a casualty of the rally, the markets hitting record highs once again today, which might explain what we're seeing in corporate buybacks and betting on nostalgia the founder of a company profiting on throwback toys but say with us in just a bit. >> courtney reagan is at the woodbridge mall in new jersey this morning hey, court >> good morning, carl. this is my favorite day of the whole year, so it's really fun to be in a mall today. though i will say the trends we've seen over the years are changing a little. thanksgiving night, that's when you're seeing the families and the dedicated mom thes out there buying for the whole family. now you're seeing more of the younger crowds come, some pleasure shopping i will admit from some of the bags we've seen we got some new numbers from macy's

they're saying they sold 200,000 coats and expect to sell a million by the end of year fragrance selling out pretty early. just got off the phone with susan anderson she's been checking some of the apparel players. she thinks traffic is a little lower in some of those stores because this year they're offering identical promotions online but she did note she's seen some pretty strong crowds and shopping bags in america eagle and pink and victoria secret as well as lulu lemon i'll say, between, i think pink is probably the most abundant shopping bag i've seen here, which goes hand in hand with some of the younger shoppers we've seen we know amazon is taking a big bite out of shopping across every day of the year. they said for u.s. mobile, thanksgiving day orders, those were up 50% this year over last year but a lot of the shoppers we

spoke to here at this mall, they're sticking to the physical stores >> i'm going to look at websites, but i think i'm going to get most of my shopping done in stores. i like them better >> sales are better. and it's nice to see exactly what you're buying, especially if it's on sale. >> it's more fun, i don't know, to be there in person and to try everything and try it on >> i like to see what i'm getting and see if it fits me properly instead of getting it online >> some folks are shoppingon line catch point is watching a lot of retail websites for us h&m's website was down for an hour yesterday and down again at 4:30 a.m. this morning that does appear to be fixed, but clearly some issues there. it's not always a clear black friday for everybody, but we'll keep you up to date at the new york stock exchange. >> courtney reagan on an important day on the retail beat we addressed some of the most

worrisome retail trends and that, of course, is excessive promotions >> the promotions have bee rationalized we have less promotion than last year it was great to see the crowds show up last night and is online all day yesterday responding to all the great values that we have we're in a good place with that. joining us this morning, dan identifie ives and ed yuruma ed, are you seeing at the mall that promotions are not quite as deep this season >> we are seeing that. we're seeing promotions much more control we're seeing them target around specific products and we're seeing the consumer really respond to what the consumers are focused on this year >> how about you, dan? make sense to you? >> it makes sense. fundamentally, we're seeing the shift as you're seeing to ecommerce is just a trend that's really continuing. we've seen traffic last night,

this morning, up specifically at best buy, up double digits overall, it's amazon stealinging the show on the e-commerce side. >> there was a note that the price differential between amazon sites and walmart and target is only 2%, but that differential had once been 6% so amazon would really have the benefit. in this environment where we have these retailers coming out and saying, we want that share, we're willing to spend to get that share, does amazon have that edge still? >> it's a great point. and what we're seeing is in terms of prime members, they're going to spend between 20% and 25% more this year versus last year we estimate about 49% of all e-commerce spending is going to be amazon versus 38% a year ago. so they continue to have that ring fence around the consumer on e-commerce. we are seeing walmart start to go make traction, no doubt they've had massive success.

but we believe it's a big enough sandbox where walmart and especially amazon continue the benefit. >> and when it comes to the traditional retailers that you cover, are there online efforts, whether it's pick up, in store or whatever they're attempting to do to grab a piece of that business, is it mostly considered self-sufficient on it own? in other words, is it table stakes do they have to do this? and is it a net reduction in the economics of the business? >> look, absolutely, ron the consumer is deciding where they want to shop. if it's on e-comm, the retailer has to meet them there if it's buy and pick up in store, they have to offer those capabilities we think apparel is particularly strong this year and that's one area where amazon doesn't have the lead that they have in places like electronics. so this could be the one holiday where on a relative basis, we could see other win withers other than amazon. >> such as >> you know, it looked like pink, which is "l" brands was very strong.

gap has had i think pretty strong results we saw lots of bags at urban outfitters this morning. so i think this strong apparel trend could be playing into a lot of their hands >> gap is strong because, i mean, ed, i started getting the e-mails for 40% off of everything a couple days ago so you've got to wonder, strong at what price, which is i guess the eternal question for the retail sector. is the consumer so trandz? i'm trained. i'll see what's out there and i'll think, the retailers are going to bring the prices down because that's what they always do >> certainly the consumer is trained to wait for some of these promos, but we're seeing more 50 off this year versus 50 off plus 10 off. on the margin, it does seem like some of those promotions are lower than they were last year >> dan, is there a chance that that 50% share from amazon and e-commerce, could that become a ceiling at some point? yeah i think you start to hit a ceiling when you get to 50%, especially with what walmart has

done, target, as well, retailers, if they start to get their act together i think this year is a year from the share perspective. prime is the key tease why you go into any whole foods, the big focus is that cross opportunity and who knows if next year if amazon gets into health care, you start going to a cvs, next thing you know, you get to be a prime member, that's the key. the prime member spends two times more than a nonprime member >> so the discussion we've had this morning already is if walmart continues to get this right, that's the camel peeking under the tent, is does the value of a prime membership need to be cut, right what would drive amazon to say, we're going to cut the cost by a quarter? >> yeah partnership mean, look, price elasticity is an important thing here you can get more services, but ultimately, we could see over the next year some more promotions around price cuts they know they have to get them in the cocoon of a prime member. once they're outside,

bentonville is lined and walmart has done a significant job and we saw it last night and this morning. >> walmart hit a hundred on friday, just for a moment it settled back a little bit. how much has the streak taken into account, the obvious hard work they've done? >> look, i think the street is starting to recognize the improvement. in the stores last night at walmart, you can see the benefits of their e-commerce strategy paying off, but most importantly, the stores are cleaner, the process is morer orderly, inventory levels were good this is a compounding benefit that they're going to get. so we think that walmart is one of the winners this holiday. >> you know, ed, on black friday, we always talk about the retailers who are winning. they're ones that are going to be losers this holiday season where it might be make or break and you've got the list of the usual candidates sears down 9.7% claires needs to pay off or refinance $ .3 billion in debt by 2019.

let's say these the guys go away in some way. are there winners in your universe >> certainly less capacity will help the players longer term you know, someone like a nordstrom could be a winner, someone like an acimo which owns a broad base of apparel could be a winner but this dislocation process will be dramatic for the retail industry over the next couple of months as we digest the holiday season and the ramifications of it >> dan, do you see amazon's appetite for a more physical change ramping next year or is that just the one off? >> i think it's one off. i think they're going to toe the line there i think specifically depending on where they go with health care but it's one where they know that slippery slope if they go down that and that differentiates them. you look at companies like stitch fix and some of these niche boutique models, smaes something we're expecting more in retail as you see the survey work we've done. >> finally, ed, on store

closures, you saw some numbers this morning, 6,000 store closures this year alone there are 65,000 fewer retail jobs than they were in january of this year do you think we're going to surpass those numbers in '18 >> yeah. it's likely. store closures is something that's going to continue we're seeing those more marginal retailers, which of which you called out continue to underperform but over time, that plays into the stronger retailers, those that made the investments in retail and it's going to be a disruptive time, but overall, we think we'll end up with a healthier environment longer term. >> it's good to have you with us, ed, from the mall of america and dan, thanks for your time. great to be here this week gotta love that shopping music really puts you in the mood, huh? when he come back, forget the malls. there's another place we're heading and we'll tell you why expectations are high for auto sales today. as we head to break, check out

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tarlth slashing prices to beat out the competition this black friday morgan brennen is live in target in jersey city to break down the details. >> that's right. so in addition to electronics, toys have been among the most popular purchases by shoppers at target so far.

so here at this jersey city location, which opened its doors at 6:00 p.m. on thanksgiving last night, folks were scooping up plush, oversized teddy bears last night which apparently priced at $10 a bear were selling for 600 a minute across the company's locations last night. other top sellers, hatchamoles, hasbro's ner the f brand many of those are available online and that is key because a recent consumer survey by jeffries found that amazon is poised to by the top seller of toys this year that really turns up the heat for retailers like walmart and target target in particular is in focus right now. it's been carrying out a major three-year, with $7 billion capital investment strategy. part of that strategy is to pump up its online presence, but also to revamp stores and lure more shoppers and boost financial returns with the launching of a dozen new private label brands, as well. and keeping with the kids' theme, one of those brands is

cat and jack that is a children's clothing line that has pulled in more than $2 billion in just over a year so its stock down is about 20% for 2017 some of the big box rivals, like walmart and best buy all of this is in focus right now. the toys, the private label clothing, like cat and jack, but also electronics, which, guys, we are going to get into and talk more in detail about in the next hour. back over to you doesn't look busy, morgan. >> it is i will tell you, it's -- there's pockets. there's been a steady stream of people since this store opened up it closed overnight, reopened at 6:00 a.m. this morning it's been a steady stream of people, some traffic particularly in the electronics section. that's where some of the biggest deals are happening in store right now and that had a area has been full of lines all morning. >> morgan, thanks. as we go to break this morning, take a look at shares of rovio, the finland basemaker

of angry birds missing expectations for quarterly sales and profits. stocks down more than 1% take a look at black friday at the mall of america in minnesota as we watch retail all morning long dow is up 41 points. be right back. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.

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companies in the s&p 500 are on pace to spend the least on buybacks in five years, at least. firnls are estimated to allocate about $500 billion this year in repurchase programs. that's about $125 billion per quarter and that pace is down from a quarterly average of 142 billion since 2014 so i would say in the last couple of years, this activity has become less fevered and i was going to point out, too, that the buyback heavy stocks, the ones in the etf meant to play the buyback trend are meant to perform in market today that's versus 15% or 16% in the s&p. >> i feel like in the last year or so, there's a real aware ps of buyback scenarios

people are really -- they're getting wise to this >> and, of course, a lot of companies that, you know, borrowed a lot of starbucks just last week. interesting case with starbucks, it seems to me it's a mature company. maybe makes sense to do a little bit of it. good morning to you both good to have you here. nandini, i wonder how you set up going into the final month of this year. we've had this rally in risk assets, obviously. it's been global it's been a core across equity and corporate bonds. it's been one of the calmest years in memory. does that mean maybe you rebalance away and look for an opportunity to do that or do you feel as if this environment can carry forward for a while? >> yes, it's a great question as

investors grapple with the last year, what to look for in 2018 we're very much still pro secretaries, thinking the cyclical upswing in global economic data, consumer confidence, all of that ticking up where it should be a support for equity egg going forward now, there are some sectors highly valued as markets have hit record highs over the past few months and those are the ones that are more cautious on an index basis broadly, pro risk and liking the equity market fundamentals we've been seeing. >> and what would be some of those sectors you might want to back off on a little bit >> sure. some of the specific companies that have very high valuations in certain sectors, for example, in the tech sector in the u.s. that have more potential to fall as things get a bit more harry, we also prefer, actually, rather than not preferring, we prefer fms in the europe sector staying away from some of the more or less cyclical sectors, the ones that are also not exposed to the consumer upswing b in europe and in the u.s. and in emerging

markets. we like the new stock sort of the e-commerce, the things that dial into financials, technology, very much supported by the middle class consumption rise in emerging markets and actually even across the world globally so anything cyclical that plays with the broader technology and financial themes are in our favor. >> kevin, what do you think? just kind of ride it through the end of this year and beyond or how are you positioned here? >> well, we're overweight equities in the portfolios that we manage. and what we're looking at is a market that has moved very strongly through what's the sweet spot for the economy we've got this low inflation, but positive growth environment. and this is exactly what equity valuations love. so we've seen multiples rise they've been rising throughout the year along with earnings and that's a very positive thing. i would say, though, however, going forward, there is less meat on the bone for the investor in equities and i think it's important to note that the short end of the

yield curve has been rising as the fed has been raising interest rates and the increase in multi the manies over the last year or two really puts downward pressure on the expected return from equities from here. so we see less benefit for taking on risk, but we'll stay with the trade as long as the data looks good. is he moment, the data looks good so there's no rope to get off this train but we need to be cognizant that risk still exists. >> so the flattening of the yield curve, kevin, concerns you. do you see it inverted >> well, not yet, no the curve is not inverted. eventually the -- >> do you see it inverting >> well, it could. if we continue to move through this period of weakness of a year and a half ago globally to now noninflationary growth, really the sweet spot i'm talking about. but if we continue to push

higher and the fed is forced to raise interest rates aggressively which we don't see at this point, but it could happen, then yes, you could see another inverted yield curve and maybe the end of a -- this phase of the bull market, anyway >> yeah. and andini, we have had some cell side calls in the past week or two goldman comes to mind who say that they're going to have to tap the accelerator a little bit more the coming year on rates. i wonder, your take on that? and i also wonder, german political uncertainty, why is the market giving that such a broad pass >> sure. so i'll tackle the fed question first. we are -- our call is for one rate hike in december, as is pretty much hiked in across the board. we expect 2 to 3 more interest rate hikes that can go up to 3 to 40 if inflation does pick we're very much aware that the fed is on this policy utilization path germany has been a big news here over the course of the week.

but we're seeing markets haven't taken that as a hint to stop prices, the general european stock market does seem to be rebounding, and i think the message here is yes, coalition hasn't been reached by angela merkel and the other political parties, but the other political parties are still pro europe broadly. and that big risk for european politics is the anti-europe sentiment, which actually in the german case isn't necessarily at play we look actually towards bigger risks than italy, for example, where euro skepticism is on the rise and this week is a lesson that the stock market, particularly in germany, is relying on fundamentals and we're seeing good earnings growth over the course of this week >> joust to scan the horizon elsewhere across the world, china's market had a bit of a hiccup maybe there's concern there with interest rates rising, government yields hitting 4% would that be a direction where you think there's a jolt coming at some point? >> yeah. across the world, we are pro

risk we like equity markets the biggest longer term risk in the horizon would be a u.s. recession, bringing things the down in the developed world certainly. but china is another one we keep a very close eye on. how is the debt performing are the nonperforming loans reducing is growth supported by consumption? this week, you know, there is some news out of there it's not a reason to reduce exposure to china or reduce or favor of emerging markets. but we are watching that and how china manages the debt situation and.perhaps as policy might change going forward, if they step up and do something different, that could have impacts on global bond markets, certainly. >> kevin, you know, we are talking about the yield curve and you said if the fed had to hike aggressively, we could see an inversion of the yield term janet yellen made some interesting comments last week saying she expects inflation to tick up over the next couple of

years, but she's not certain about that we have jerome coming in next week who could have the same view or perhaps a different view what do you perceive for fed rate hikes next year >> we're not as aggressive as the other guests we would see maybe two or three rate increases coming over the next -- in 2018. but that's conditioned upon continuation of the good data flow that we're seeing that said, the changes at the fed, the introduction of new the leadership there looks more continuous with the -- with what we've seen before. so there's no real break there and there has been a significant record of the fed missing in terms -- or i should say inflation missing the feds' target so consequently, it's a little bit too soon to say, well, you know, all of a sudden, now we're going to see this big breakout of inflation. it's something that needs to be watched, but we're not convinced that you're going to have a big breakout of inflation here subsequently, we're not

expecting the fed to move very aggressively on interest rates in 2018. yeah all right. we'll see if we get any clues at those hearings next week on j powell's nomination. kevin, nandini, thanks for your time this morning. when we come back, why closet '80s toys may be the best selling of the holiday season. we'll talk to the c he o behind that company in a moment every day, on every street, in every town, across america. small businesses show their love to you. with some friendly advice, a genuine smile and a warm welcome they make your town... well, your town. that's why american express is proud to be the founding partner of small business saturday. a day where you get to return that love, because shopping small makes a big difference. so, tomorrow get up, get out, and shop small. allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities.

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here is your krn news jum update at this hour. out of egypt, at least 235 people have been killed in a mosque attack. security officials are reporting militants in four offroad vehicles bombed the mosque and opened fire on worshippers it happened in a volatile region a suicide bomber on a motorcycle in pakistan killed a high-ranking police officer and guard. officials report there that the attack wounded six others.

no group has claimed immediate responsibility argentina has announced it's accelerating the search for a submarine lost in the south atlantic that subdisappeared nine days ago with 44 crew members on board. the country's navy said an explosion happened near the time and place where the subwent missing. and a dramatic rescue, a good samaritan and three police officers rescued a woman trying to climb on to the platform just seconds before the train came through. we don't know why she was on the platform or on those tracks to begin with that's a cnbc news update for you this hour. back to you guys >> lucky person. contessa brewer, reporting this year's e-commerce sales up 1.5 billion. that's up 17% from last year but within those numbers, retailers are winning. twice, good to have you with us. >> thank you >> let's two with that question.

who is winning so far? he know it's early >> well, the black friday shoppers ghost at the malls and wentz across the street shopping at best buy, walmart and target. they had the biggest line among the retailers. what's interesting is we found out that one thing retailers did really good this year is that 43% of e-mails were increased this year. so the retailers did a good job in letting consumers know about the discountses going into black friday yet, the discounts weren't too great. the discounts were on average 40% and the national average discount has been 37.3% over the last two months. so as you can see, there was much more of a discount for black friday michael, this year we have major launches of new phones from apple at staggering price points, $1,000 for the iphone x. when we think about retail sales, is that going to be impacted by consumption elsewhere, spending elsewhere? >> i think the one thing that we're going to see is not only in consumer electronics and

things like the apple, we're seeing a transition of people wanting to have experiences. it's not so much about what i own, but it's what i do. it's about the instagramble moment or the snapble moment and i think we're going to see a shifting to those experience and tickets and those types of things that people experience as opposed to just buying >> what's the most effective use you've seen of that? >> the most effective use of marketing for that >> of building that kind of moment >> what we're seeing nearly in the stores is the ability to bring the services to the stores right now, we don't see retailers building those moments as well as they should, but i think that's going to make the difference for consumers coming to store build an experience, give me a reason to come but where we see it coming is outside of the stores where people can consume such as services, such as dry bar and hand massage and give me that gift that i can enjoy as opposed to just another piece of clothing >> aside from the iphone, is there any kind of competitive

gift that people are going of to really go for this year? it doesn't seem like it. >> you know what's interesting is that retailers are using a new strat by and i saw it very vivid today in the malls. when you walk into the victoria secret, the bras were heavily discounted, but other intimates were sold at full price. so the lines were big, with women carrying on average two bras but they were carrying sleepwear where they were paying full price and there were a lot of in lineals in the mall. when i asked them why they were there, they said they were there with the experience. they were there with their friends and they were there to actually enjoy the experience of shopping >> courtney spoke to those teenage girls in the mall there. they all had the phone >> exactly you close enough stores and i guess retail becomes quaint and you go there and you want to see what it's all about because you haven't grown up going to the mall we have the vintage toy guy on next do you think the cold weather is masking weakness that

we might otherwise have seen >> yes the cold weather wam in just in time for the holiday season. we're expecting to see an increase in the amount of coats being sold in the holiday season >> even this morning, macy's was talking coats, sweaters and fleeces, right >> everybody had a sweater in their hand, even at gap, which had 50% discount, yes. those are the ticket items that need to be sold if you're in the apparel business you're going to get more margin, birth bang for the buck if you can push the coats and the cashmeres. >> even if it's 50% off? >> even if it's 50% off. that's built into the price. >> the retailers discounting last are going to be the discount stores like walmart they're going into the holiday season more confident with their inventory. about 43% of their inventory was discounted last year that has dropped to 25% this year on average, their discount last year was 18% and that's dropped to 10% we're seeing they're going more confident into the holiday season, that they have selected

the items that consumers want. does that mean the week before christmas, there will be shortages? honestly, it seems like we're front loading a lot of the season >> retailers would rather short it rather than having massive inventory levels that they have to discount and hurt margins however, the retailers that might go through that are the department stores. about 60% of their inventory is still sold on sale and that amount is just big, over 50% discount it just makes you question how long can they survive, you know, hurting these margins. >> 60% sold -- >> yes >> on sale >> that is slightly down from last year. last year it was 66% but it still is a huge amount for macy's and lord and taylor >> it doesn't sound like things are getting much better or the department stores. >> i think the department stores are just going through the evolution that they've been going through for years. they're trying to find that place for themselves in the market now it's been built around private labels going forward, they're going to have to get back to when they used to incubate brands, give

brands an opportunity, a field to play in that they can then draw the consumers back in right now, it is about their private label and differentiating on those and they'll continue to discount on those to make it happen. >> so example there would be jcpenney/sephora, something like that >> that's a great partnership. it's a big draw. it's a great experience. it gives them a branned name that attracts people to their the brands what we see is more what nordstrom did with lenovo as being a wholesale partner. now it's a walmart acquisition, going to give them the traction with the more upper demographic that they need >> so when you say private brands, it's not necessarily macy's in-house apparel. it's another brand from the outside they're helping to incubate >> they're going to have to incubate to be successful. that was the role of the stores back in the '70s

create that passion, bring in new designers, discover the new ralph lawuren and give them a place to discovery who they. >> and what about toys is it purely on price at this point? >> there hasn't been a must have toy yet, but star wars toys always seem to be a favorite going into the holiday season. >> and toys have -- the last jedi is, what, three weeks away? >> exactly >> toys have shifted to the gaming platform. i think we'll see some virtual reality systems coming out to give a boost there > >> overall, nrf says 4%. does that sound like they're undershooting? >> thompson reuters is looking at a 1% growth for the holiday season that is twice as strong at last yooef year's 0.8%. holiday spending is expected to be modest.

>> we're bullish on the 4% i think we're going to see the volume retailers are going to do to make the volume i think we have to watch margins because we're starting to see the shift to more goods being shipped jan online and those shipping costs come right out of the margins. >> especially as u.p.s. says it's going to charge more around the peak shipping time it's going to cost more if you're buying on a black friday to get that package delivered to your house >> and instead of coming to the store and pick it up on your own, it's coming from three or four different locations each one of them has a $3 to $5 surcharge on it to get it delivered to your house. >> that's where the amazon/kohl's relationship makes sense. and while you're there, why not shop a little bit more at kohl's it's made to entice, to increase that traffic at both ends. >> thanks so much. good to see you. >> thank you speaking of shipping, wednesday -- well, monday we're going to talk to the head of u.p.s. wednesday at 11:00 a.m., we'll speak exclusively with the ceo

of amazon web services, andy jassy. doesn't talk a lot, but when he does, you want to take paengz. when we come back, forget the malls, phil lebeau is live at a chevy dealership. what do you have coming up for you, i have a big, red bow a lot of people are putting these on the hood of a car and driving off the lot. how big is black friday in the auto dealership business we'll tell you when "squawk on the street" returns.

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down to the very server. it keeps your insights from prying eyes, so they're used by no one else but you. it. is. the cloud. the ibm cloud. the cloud that's designed for your data. ai ready. secure to the core. the ibm cloud is the cloud for business. yours. let's get to the cme group, check in with rick santelli and get the santelli exchange. good morning, rick good morning, carl i like to welcome my last guest of the week after the thanksgiving holiday sean, thanks forting the time. >> thank you, rig. good to see you. >> i like talking currencies with you it's been a very bad week for the dollar as a matter of fact, just thinking we said last week was slightly above 103 and here we

are struggle, a 92 handle, the crb at 92 and that close to a nine-month high, what do you see with respect to the dollar weakness >> well, i think actually maybe it's more euro strength at the moment is the fact that europe looks like it's not going to fall off the face of the earth as people were talking about a couple of years ago. you have to remember, in the last 2 or 223456 years, you've seen the euro at 1.40. you've seen it down at 105 and now we're back in the kind of 120 area. so you've seen a great deal of volatility when it was at 105, it was bad for the u.s when it was at 140, it was bad for europe we think we're in the 20 range, you know, why not look at that as a place for it to become more stable why not have a blah sdwa accord

or something like that where europe and the u.s. say, look, we're going to put guardrails on this and we'll intervene at that point to buy the other's currency we think that would be great and especially for trade the euro and the dollar are the two big currencies in the world. they dominate world economic flows. >> sean, you've never impressed me as the type of person to uger for move government involvement to slow down the volatility in government exchange. that seem like it's packed with the the devil, doesn't it? >> until 45 years or so, it was understood that you needed so

far fixed exchange rates they knew that it would create tremendous speculation and capital market speculation which would eventually dwarf any positive mechanism and instead it would become a speculation game and that is what happened. when the dollar swings by large margins against the other big currencies in the world like the euro or the japanese yen, it destabilizes everyone and creates crisis after crisis. >> we're just about out of time and i wish i could continue with this because i understand that foreign exchange volatility can negate many things, even some of the positives to tax issues as they bark on reform there. but in the end, i'm a market guy. we're going to have you back and debate other possibilities to

slow that volatility thank you for being my guest today. mike santolli, back to you >> rick, thank you very much as we go to break, you don't want to miss this one. coming up monday at 11:30 a.m. eastern, ken griffin is going to join us. and when we come back after a break, classic toys making a comeback this holiday season we'll speak to the co-founder of the company brgi tse tinngheoys back to life "squawk on the street" will be right back double digits.tfolio dy it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. i'm all about my bed. this mattress is dangerously comfortable. when i get in, i

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♪ ♪ black friday now one of the busiest days of the year for auto dealers, and this year's expected to be a strong one that could set up the auto industry for potentially robust year end sales. phillebeau joins us live at a chevy dealership hey, phil. >> they opened the doors here at 8:00 and there were a couple of people who walked in we're not talking about the long lines at malls or big box retailers, but it's been busy all morning and will likely continue throughout the day. how important is today not only for this dealership, but dealerships around the country consider this, black friday and really this weekend, one of the

top five busiest days of the year for auto dealers. they also are offering greater incentives, especially as we approach the end of the month. and this is the beginning of the year-end sales push, especially when you look at the luxury brands they typically are targeting that last six weeks of the year starting from now through new years, going to the end of the year, mercedes leads over bmw and lexus and for the industry overall, guys, we're looking at a third straight year with auto sales topping 17 million most believe it's going to be around 17.2, maybe 17.3 for all of 2017. as we take a look at shares of bmw, i mentioned the luxury auto brands really target the last six weeks of the year. that's when you see a lot of the incentives, but make no mistake, not just the luxury names, it's the mass market brands, as well. chevy pushing big promotions for black friday, as well as the end of the year, and that's what we're seeing today people coming in

they may not buy today, but they'll be in here this churns the traffic this weekend and dealers love it, because it gets people coming into the showroom. >> all right, phil, thank you. phil lebeau in illinois for us some classic '80s toys are making a comeback this holiday season with a few key updates. wicked cool toys is a company taking the toys back on the market, equipping them with bluetooth and designing free mobile apps. for more we're joined by the co-president and partner thank you for being with us. >> thank you pleasure to be here. >> what do you think is behind the interest in these vintage toys because the kids growing up with these toys now have kids of their own? >> that's exactly right. life is a handoff. so you have multigenerational appeal and it makes a terrific time to bring back some of the most appealing and momentous brands of all time >> so one of those brands, perhaps, is the teddy, which we've been should go i want to address the elephant in the room first with this toy.

it looks kind of scary with those eyes that sort of pixelate there. what's new about this teddy? >> completely understand as an adult after you've been influenced by the chucky movies for 30 years it's easy to see yourself scared by digital eyes, but teddy ruxpin sold over 7 million units and that handoff is occurring today kids today are excited and interested in the digital eyes, bluetooth activity to an ipad or smart device where you can read stories and it's an educational, fun, exciting toy. >> are the licensing costs on some of these old classics expensive, or are the people who hold those rights just grateful that someone is interested in selling them again >> there's a range, if you could imagine. if you go to the toy store right now and look at the top ten

brands you find a lot of consistency year to year teddy ruxpin was off the market for quite some time, so for that brand it was a reasonable deal for all sides, how about that? cabbage patch kids has been on the shelf for 35 straight years, since 1982, and pokemon is one of the largest, if not the largest kids brand in the world, so we're in a situation where there's a great deal of variability in terms of the deals to be had out there in the marketplace. >> jeremy, i've actually seen an informal version of this at work basically, my dad from the basement kept stuff from my brothers and me, give it to our kids sort of a fascination with it. i wonder if there are certain '80s or earlier toys that seem not to travel well into today. >> oh, absolutely. i'd prefer not to mention them, because i'd like to be sued only once in my life, but, yes, that is true. >> what kinds of things might not work any kind of rule to that

>> no, you know, ultimately if you as a parent were interested, basic play patterns and themes tend not to change much over time they tend to deliver to new kids in every single generation, so from trolls, to star wars, to pokemon, to teddy ruxpin, cabbage patch kids you see consistency in the play pattern and themes kids embrace. >> that's evident to any dad who shows kids their star wars toys and say careful with that. >> yeah. >> absolutely. >> get your own teddy ruxpin jeremy, thanks so much jeremy with wicked cool toys very cool. all right. let's take a check on the bond markets here and see where we stand on this black friday weekend. we are a shortened holiday week today, so if we could take a check here >> dow being led originally by ge at the open, but now visa and goldman. who knows about volume today and

patterns a little bit strange on shortened trading sessions >> black friday trade without having to actually choose a winner also it just works so well just as one of those big platform growth stocks. >> be careful the smaller cap sales where volume is thin there could be a lot of volatility in a lot of the smaller cap stocks on the spectrum >> also midday softening in crude, which is settling back from the 59 level. when we come back this morning, it is not just clothing sales we're keeping an eye on, we'll talk to the ceo of ethan allen obviously, filling the home with whether it's building supplies or furniture is a huge tmehe "squawk alley" is coming up next don't go away.

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among the leaders. that does it for this hour of "squawk on the street. now back downtown for the start of "squawk alley." >> jackie, thanks. good morning, it is 8:00 a.m. where the doors are just opening at the best buy in san francisco. it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ adob