tv Fast Money CNBC December 8, 2017 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
5:00 pm
>> california. >> california. >> we're already bracing for the worst any. >> "star wars" on friday night, that's exciting. >> that will be exciting >> thank you,guys, have a lovely weekend >> happy friday, pleasure to be here, thanks for having me >> kelly's back on monday, as a matter of fact that's it for "closing bell. thanks for joining us. "fast money" begins right now. have a good weekend. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. tonight honoron "fast," the bule getting more bullish john stoltus will be here to tell us how high he thinks stocks are going plus wall street braces for the launch of bitcoin futures over the weekend we'll tell you everything you need to get ready. biotech having its best day since august a major event this weekend could send the group even higher
5:01 pm
we will explain. first we start off with a record day for the markets the dow soaring triple digits closing at a record high the s&p 500 joining in on the party as well. nasdaq a bit behind, making a comeback today after a tough month for the composite. it looks like the perfect recipe for a rally. big jobs number this morning, president trump signed the bill to avert a government shutdown and it's full speed ahead on tax cuts do you just keep buying 'til the end of the year and maybe even beyond, guy? >> we've been saying that all along. one of the things we've said earlier this week, despite the fact that the market seemed volatile, the volatility index continued to go lower, down 5% one day, 5% the next day today it closed at 9.5%, the lowest level we've seen in quite some time. despite the warning signs, the vix doesn't care to answer your question, some exogenous event is out there, i don't see it as we get closer to closer to christmas, this thing will
5:02 pm
continue to grind higher >> a couple of things that could have thrown the market off track, we all know them. tax policy, if for whatever reason there's another hurdle, that could send the market lower. debt ceiling, i think everyone has learned not to sell the market on that if you're a large cap tech, amt was the major thing, the 800-pound gorilla in the room. that's not in the tax policy those stocks roared back, we've seen them. baba was down 14%. it ran up from there you start to see all these different plays. >> we had a little camera thing going on there anyway >> it felt like we were in the fun house, which is kind of what this market felt like. >> you had your stomach turned inside out large cap tech took a beating but rallied back >> people were feeling some sense of jubilation over the fact that three or four days ago when things were pulling back, people said, oh, is this the big one. the big one was a function of things going parabolic look at transports, small caps,
5:03 pm
retail, financials, and then the nasdaq on the other side was pulling back what's happened here is simply you had things have a chance to cool off indicators have come back to moderation today brought it back to global growth look at gdp numbers out of japan, around the world, payroll numbers are devoid of inflation pressure you've got goldilocks in the u.s. right now manufacturing employment is at 2.7% why are we crying so hard about getting manufacturing jobs in this country people right now are running into skilled labor shortages and manufacturing jobs and yet that seems to be the mantra i don't agree with that. i do agree the jobs market is in a very good place without inflation and that's what the market is doing today. global markets outperform. >> global markets outperform look, in general i think you don't just blindly buy this tape and think it's going to be rally to the end of the year be selective, look at the names
5:04 pm
in your portfolio and say, i want to own to the end of the year, add to the weakness. i look at the consumer discretionary space, that's a tradeable sector >> when you say don't buy blindly, you can almost buy everything with the exception of energy retail has bounced back dramatically macy's, tim's been long -- >> you believe that bounce >> yes the worst is out of the way right now. everyone has -- >> the worst is not out of the way in macy's, it's still in a secular design their business model is struck >> amazon was going to crush everybody. only 12% of sales are online >> what's changed in macy's business model >> it's all factored in. hang on one second if only 12% are online sales, granted amazon is 50% online look at what ups said. they can't deal with the swell of orders. do you think all of those orders were amazon? some of these guys are going to hit it out of the park
5:05 pm
some of these guys' business models are catching up some of it is so beaten up -- >> it will be a long 15 days until christmas. how many days? >> 16. >> are you counting? >> i am. >> you have your christmas outfit on early. >> festive here. >> very nice >> you like macy's >> i obviously agree with steve's point. dave's point is a fair one is their business in secular decline? you could make a strong argument that this is the no the mat thes of three years ago the balance sheet wasn't anywhere near as bad as people thought. they were paying 6% dividend it's not the reason to buy the stock. stocks run a big amount. macy's came into this holiday season in a very different place as did a lot of other retailers. that's steve's point ultimately they've had a year to adjust to amazon they've had multiple years only in the last six months have we seen a couple of these guys
5:06 pm
make inroads >> walmart >> on tax and the fact that it's been beaten up on valuations, not a stock i want to invest in, i stay away from it. technology, i still want to play the game, buy stocks on weakness that have a growth trajectory. >> the first quarter, by the way, you're going to see a lot of positive data coming out of retail and even less bad is going to be enough to keep the sector going i'm not saying this is something i want to own for three and five years. but you can't deny that when you look at these charts, they have been beaten up so badly that when you see these things, they're not fliers anymore they've been the laggards, they've rallied. you know what hasn't rallied, energy >> i think that captures the question a lot of investors have right now with the s&p and dow at closing record highs. do you buy laggards in the market or do you buy what has been working >> the laggards in the market for the last couple of weeks have been technology you were gallivanting monday and
5:07 pm
tuesday, you weren't here. >> gallivanting? >> the implications is she was just whimsically -- >> i was watching what was going on >> were you watching the "fast money" >> the "fast money." >> micron, we said on monday it basically recaptured the entire rally back down to levels when it reported, 38 1/2. we said risk/reward for micron works well, steve nodded his head in accord, and look what's done ever since. there are stocks that have underperformed for the last month or so that are doing well again. in case you thought it couldn't get any better than this, let's bring in the chief investment strategist with oppenheimer asset management he's got an s&p target of 3,000, the highest target on the street welcome, john. >> thanks a lot. >> is that scary, to be the highest on the street? >> not really. we have been second highest on
5:08 pm
the street but at 3,000, just today we closed above 2,650, which was our revised target from last july, and our earlier target from last december was 2,450 from this year we've got 2450, 2650, knocking on woods, folks, let's hope we get to 3,000 we think that 3,000 is realistic, based on improving fundamentals more things are getting better than getting worse there's plenty of challenges >> what needs to go right in order to get to 3,000? does tax need to pass? what are the elements? >> what really needs to keep moving along is we need to keep inflation in check modest growth of inflation modest wage growth a federal reserve that remains very sensitive to the needs of the economy. >> is sensitive three rate hikes next year? >> three rate hikes will be what i'm looking for.
5:09 pm
i think we have another one of these three-hike years >> what's your biggest concern to your target, the biggest risk >> i would say the biggest risk would be if all of a sudden you've got a sense of the fed that they thought inflation was moving ahead of itself, and they had to increase the pace of the normalization. whether it was raising rates at a quicker pace in terms of the increments they were making or in the spatial relationship of when they -- just think of it, we've only hiked four times in two years. the last fed cycle by two years, we had hiked 17 times and raised the fed funds rate by 425 basis points from 1% to 5.25% a very different picture things have evolved in a different direction. >> john, this isn't a wiseguy question you just said sensitive to the needs of the economy do you mean sensitive to the needs of the market? >> i think i mean sensitive to
5:10 pm
the needs of the economy the fed's role and its mandate just happens to work well for the market, because the market likes an economy that's good enough to generate revenue growth and earnings growth >> fair enough and i don't mean to double up this question, i never do this, but last year janet yellen said she was going to go on this course and the market sold off significantly and they backed off because the market had a significant pullback so that's why i asked the question >> no, i think in this particular case, we've got new leadership coming in at the fed, although i think janet yellen did a terrific job what we have here right now is we've got new leadership, but thank goodness, it's not john taylor, and with jerome powell, we might continue on in a fairly dovish pattern but with a realistic approach to the need for normalization because the fed has to prepare, at some point down the road we will have risk of recession and probably will have a recession, but i'm not looking for that next year >> how much of that 3,000 is post tax bill and how much is
5:11 pm
domestic where tax rates were 38 to 39% >> it's actually not really including a real kick from tax reform we were surprised when tax reform made it through the senate we really thought those five senators were going to hold back they didn't, you only had corker, i think, held back the vote they got that. moving forward on it but i think the market is really -- the market is feeling good about itself because it has a business-friendly administration in the white house. but it recognizes the difficulties in terms of different constituencies, powerful vested interest groups that can dislodge a really effective tax reform it likes 2 to 2.5% growth that appears sustainable right now for the foreseeable future not forever, but looking out 12 to 18 months >> john, thank you what did you do today? >> i stayed long, thank god, all of my tech exposure, i stayed
5:12 pm
long my housing exposure, which never took really a hit. and i am still 99% allocated in the market there's not a whole lot of room. when i make my next move, it will be for sale, not to buy anything >> biotech just getting in front of the jpmorgan in january, the cowan conference in march. i continue to buy stocks there >> i like to call. gilead has held a 200 "a" after thrashing around at the bottom i think the fundamentals are there. emerging in the last couple of days i've been add to go the infrastructure trades, the reflation trades coming up, bitcoin is about to make a huge splash as futures trading begins this weekend. we'll tell you how to get in on the crypto craze boeing is hitting fresh all time highs today if you missed the run, don't worry. we'll tell you how to buy it for less than five bucks and later, small caps sinking this week but the chart master sees something in the
5:14 pm
directv has been rated number one in customer satisfaction over cable for 17 years running. but some people still like cable. just like some people like wet grocery bags. getting a bad haircut. overcrowded trains. turnstiles that don't turn. and spilling coffee on themselves. but for everyone else, there's directv. for #1 rated customer satisfaction over cable, switch to directv. and for a limited time get a $100 reward card. call 1-800-directv
5:16 pm
days away from the cboe launching bitcoin futures on sunday the cme is set to follow on december 17th. a number of online brokers are set to trade bitcoin futures on their platforms. bob pisani has more from the nyse >> reporter: hi, melissa we're getting closer to finally trading bitcoin futures. trading starts on sunday night there will be three initial one-month contracts. january, february, and march each contract is just one bitcoin. the contracts are traded and settled in cash. you'll be required to post a margin of 40%. that's up from 30% just a few days ago if it you want to trade bitcoin futures, check with your broker. but be forewarned. a lot of them seem to be sitting out this initial round of trading. so for example interactive brokers is one of the few firms that will allow trading on its platform but with margins of 50%. ceo thomas peterffy said on
5:17 pm
"fast money" yesterday that there will be no naked shorting. e*trade, schwab, fidelity, they're taking a wait and see attitude traders will be looking at several issues when trading begins in earnest on monday. first, with such limited initial participation, what kind of volume will we be seeing second and more importantly, what's the bid/ask spread? and what's the depth of the book that market make verrs have cre? how many different bids and offers will there be at different price levels will this make bitcoin more respectable? it's not clear, but it will make parts of the bitcoin market more transparent and it will go a long way toward extending some regulation to part of that market back to you, melissa >> thank you, bob pisani with the latest from the new york stock exchange what do you think will happen? bob makes a good point in terms of bid/ask spreads and how many participants will be on each
5:18 pm
side of the trade. we don't know that yet >> i talked to brian kelly about it, nobody knows better than he would, and he says it will be a nothing hamburger. >> meaning much ado about nothing? >> a what burger they just said it in my ear. we talked about it last night, interactive brokers going from 45 to 60 >> bitcoin stock or not. >> i said it absolutely is, despite what mr. peterffy said they better trade a gazillion bitcoin contracts, otherwise they'll be in trouble. >> i'm sitting at home wanting to trade bitcoin futures what are some of the caveats >> i think the american public sitting at home trading futures in general, the risks involved in that are so much greater than people understand. i think the general investors really don't understand. brian is right when he says a
5:19 pm
nothing burger people won't step into this risk trade as people -- >> professionals >> professionals, absolutely >> we talked about that, that most funds say they want to stay clear of it and now trading in the futures market on bona fide exchanges, they might feel a sense of security. you might get an incremental buyer or player that wouldn't ordinarily be involved >> can i say one thing i think what it told you, i said that last night to brian, and i acted on it, to me you saw the move on bitcoin into bitcoin futures. i think the same thing will happen with ethereum the top two or three, it won't just be bitcoin trading in futures, especially if this is universally accepting that crypto is here to say. i got long in ethereum last night. >> wow >> i haven't changed my life position because of this i would argue we've had our futures moment with bitcoin already. still ahead, biotech is surging and there's something happening this weekend that could send the stocks even higher we'll explain.
5:20 pm
i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide here's what else is coming up on "fast. look, up in the sky. it's a bird, it's a plane. >> it's boeing the stock surging to fresh all-time highs if you missed the run, don't worry. we'll tell you how to buy it for less plus america has gone crazy for crypto currencies. and all next week, "fast money" is taking you inside the world of bitcoin how to buy it, how to sell it, how to be a crypto bullar. the biggest names in the world of digital currency, on "fast money" all next week for your heart...
5:21 pm
5:22 pm
right in the heart of the was in his financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. welcome back to "fast money. biotech jumping 2% today, having its best day since august 31st let's get to meg terrell back at headquarters for all the details, hi, meg >> reporter: hey, melissa. first, the credible week that sage therapeutics has been having, the stock up 70% yesterday and still more today after the company reported positive results of its experimental drug for depression investors are betting the tax
5:23 pm
overhaul that gets done could drive m&a in this space which has been slower this year than expected and momentum from a big research conference in atlanta. it often leads to major biotech moves. investors are watching gene therapy which offers the hope for one-time potentially curative treatments for blood diseases pay attention to spark therapeutics, biomarin and bluebi bluebird bio investors are watching a new method to use cells to fight cancer an important stock to watch, celgene, having a tough time lately, down 25% in the last three months as the company suffered a pipeline setback and lowered its forecast celgene will hold a closely watched investor event this could be a volatile meeting for biotech stocks bluebird bio, one year it gained
5:24 pm
as much as 70% another, it fell by 7% celgene on the whole generally has a negative week after ash conference on monday on "fast money" we'll have the ceo of juneau therapeutics we're looking forward to that one, mel >> in terms on the potential outcomes out of ash, what are we watching for >> reporter: bluebird is what i hear most people talking about we saw 70% in one year, i'm not sure people are expecting that big a move, but it's expected to be a big mover next week >> meg terrell, thanks, off to atlanta now to ash what do you make of these stocks >> expectations going into ash are extremely high we saw a lot of repositioning today as well. we saw short covering. you can't be short some of these stocks now, with jpmorgan coming up, a conference in january. we've got the cowen conference in march you're looking at a sector right now that investors say, i can't be short these names, it's too difficult, they've been beaten
5:25 pm
down too much in certain instances and they're starting to move higher this could be a sector in my opinion that really outperforms next year. >> do i need to be long the sector at this point we say there's tremendous seasonality going on, you stick with what's working. why biotech? >> in the case of the top four or five names in the ibb, which is 35% of that index, you have some fantastic balance sheets. you have companies that in some sense have an overhang based on m&a activity it's not because these companies aren't executing in their space. when you see a celgene make the move it had, a lot of people, these things take the elevator down, they don't step down that concerns people >> juneau is interesting for sure the good news about celgene is it held in 2016 at its level the bad news is they have self-inflicted wounds. they have to prove themselves going forward.
5:26 pm
>> i'm in specialty pharma,valet when i bought it at 12 initially, i was playing for a $30 price tag, not for 14 and 15 i'm still long it. >> is it a new high today? >> it's a 13-month high. valeant, part of a balance sheet repair the core businesses are coming back >> apparently there's a winter storm coming winter storm benji is making its way across the deep south, causing havoc from texas to tennessee. to keep you warm during storm benji, our traders have picked four stocks to heat up your portfolio. >> that's crazy. anyway, apc, the energy company has started to turn their game around, giving cash back to investors. follow this stock. >> oled, a name i want to continue to own through '18.
5:27 pm
this is a long term play >> it has to have something to do with heat >> it's hot. >> grasso. >> vf corp., look at the brands they have, they'll keep you warm >> dunkin' brands get you done, mel. >> nice. that does it for us at "fast money. see you back here at 5:00 on monday don't move, "options action" starts after this break.
5:28 pm
♪ what a feeling >> flash dance on at schwab. oh really? thank you clients? well jd power did just rank them highest in investor satisfaction with full service brokerage firms... again. and online equity trades are only $4.95... i mean you can't have low cost and be full service. it's impossible. it's like having your cake and eating it too. ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs. how am i going to explain this? if you don't like their answer,
5:29 pm
ask again at schwab. schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. we are the driven... the dedicated... the overachievers. we know our best investment is in ourselves. we don't take no for an answer. we fight for what we want. even for the things that were once a given. going to college... buying a home... and not being in debt for it for the rest of our lives. but we're only as strong as our community. who inspires and pushes us to go further than we could ever go alone. sofi. get there sooner. and i am a senior public safety my namspecialist for pg&e. my job is to help educate our first responders on how to deal with natural gas and electric emergencies. everyday when we go to work
5:30 pm
we want everyone to work safely and come home safely. i live right here in auburn, i absolutely love this community. once i moved here i didn't want to live anywhere else. i love that people in this community are willing to come together to make a difference for other people's lives. together, we're building a better california. we're live at the nasdaq market site on a friday afternoon. the guys are getting ready behind me, while they do that, here's what's coming up on the show >> i'm the king of the world >> boeing is having its best rally in decades we have a way to buy it for less than five dollars. plus -- >> you're killing me, smalls small caps have been lagging the market if history is any indication, it could be your best bet into year end. and later --
93 Views
IN COLLECTIONS
CNBC Television Archive Television Archive News Search ServiceUploaded by TV Archive on