>> twitter's quarter was better too. you're coming into health care and it's a big one being jpmorgan in january. it's still beaten up >> thanks to all of you. here's what's on the power lunch menu bitcoin mania. a wild ride for the crypto currency we give you crash course that's not a pun, on how they work social butterflies we'll break down a new report on where people are posting what they are avoiding the wildfires continue to rage on in california. the fifth biggest fire in the state's history. we're live with the latest and a look at the economic impact. power lunch starts right now

disney and merck are your dow leaders. we could get a deal this week for disney to buy much of fox's movies and tv assets a good day for some energy names like chesapeake, newfield and haliburton u.s. employers posted fewer job openings nearly six million jobs were available and total hires rose 4.4 prz.

brook field properties $14.8 billion offer. brookfield is considering a new offer. ge announcing its power division will reduce count by 12,000 we begin this hour with bitcoin moving higher today after this weekend's roll out of futures trading. bob joining us with more >> important thing is it's finally trading. take a look at where the coin is right now. 17,000 area. the important thing we've got it out. this is the futures contract we're talking about. opening 15,000 it's trading at a premium to the underlying cash. not a lot of people are allowing it let's review what a futures contract is. what do we do when we get a futures contract it's an agreement to buy or sell a commodity or financial

instrument at a predetermined price and number two, at a very specific time in the future. let's take a look at the bitcoin. when you buy a bitcoin contract, you get one bitcoin. let's look at the current price. you can buy with leverage. the margin is 44%. you have to put up 44% do the math on that. that's $7800 you have to put up and you own one bitcoin. what happens if the close on january 17th, the price is 18,000, you're in the money because you bought lower and you're getting it back at a higher price. good news. however, if it's at say $17,000, you lose it's very simple this is a zero sum game. important thing now, it's very small. keep this all this perspective right now we have 3400 contracts that are trading value is about 50 million.

that's small look at the overall market here. the u.s. bond market is 38 trillion dollar. i know we're interested in this and excited about it it really is very small right now. back to you. listen up bitcoin buyers the man responsible for taking down the so called wolf of wall street is setting his sights on bitcoin. he's been described as a street's worst nightmare does that mean there's a reason to worry bitcoin is up today. do you think it's because going on the cme, going on the cboe legitimizes it

>> i don't think it does i think this is a function of its new, it's innovative and see where it's going i think it will take some time >> do you have a view on it one way or the other positive or negative >> i don't that's not my job to do that i'm here to protect investors and make sure if they have misunderstandings or problems. innovation out runs regulation right now there's very little regulation in this entire area we're waiting to see what happens. right now this is the mania phase of it. it's almost like tulip mania without the tulips

it depends on their security it depends on their ability to protect it at this point there's always a risk out there you're dealing with something that is not a real commodity i hate it when they show these bitcoins there ain't no bitcoin you don't see that >> we'll talk to the graphics department >> why haven't we seen out right regulation or government intervinte intervention yet if we did, is it negative for bitcoin. >> it's not. innovation and technology always out run regulation regulators got to understand what the innovation is coming up with we're still trying to get educated money transmission, we're looking at it from a money transmission point of view that doesn't cover the entire bitcoin space. security s a whole other aspect. >> what do you make of the huge margins at the moment of the

various different bitcoin offerings and futures markets will be making >> there's very little control over that. you haven't seen the market actually adjust to this new phenomenon you don't have the short sellers yet. they're not there yet. i don't know what the long term aspects are going to be. you're on this mania curve at some point in time there's got to be a leveling of it >> you mentioned mania point. when i post about bitcoin i'm either a genius or a stupid idiot. isn't there something about it of what's happening with bitcoin that you've seen before in other

markets. this is not something a guy making $100,000 a year and two kids in college ought to be investigating. >> there's worst reports we've had reports that people are using their credit card to buy bitcoins >> we have seen mortgages being taken out to buy bitcoin >> you have? >> sure. people borrow money. >> to buy -- >> holy smokes >> what i got this morning in e-mail, i got a guy who says to me, guaranteed $13,000 profit

buy bitcoin right now in one day. >> he said that to a regulator >> it was an e-mail. >> spam. >> he's the one guy you should leave off. >> the bottom line is people don't understand what it is. when we have failures like the one we had last week, especially the old one, people call me up and said, how do i make an fdic claim against the bank that lost my bitcoin i get those calls. those are very little education out there on this. the fwguys controlling a lot of supply, know very little they have probably selling if i were to guess. i think the original folks in there are probably already out >> really interesting interview. thank you very much >> thank you >> you got to tune in to fast money tonight for their block chain blockbuster.

they have special guests all week from the hype of bitcoin to the hurry up and wait, there's no shortage of on wall street. how should investors be setting the table looking ahead into 2018 let's braing in chairman researh partners does it make it likely more recommended? >> i would never recommend it to my clients i'm in the stupid idiot. my clients are constitutional investo investors. they are not retail. even more so, it would be difficult to recommend it to other people if you want to speculate on it, that's your business >> it does open it up to some

institutional investors. the fact we rallied overnight is a small hurdle >> the cash or the bitcoins themselves are not regulated at all. you have some regulation in the futures. you have some in options there's no regulation of the underlying asset it makes me nervous. >> it gets really ugly if you ask any kind of provocative question we've seen this over and over. i mean, when you look at this, is there a broader market implication. do you think, this reminds me of pets.com and that ended so badly. >> it does which doesn't mean it can't go up a lot more i wouldn't recommend it to anyone >> are you worried about the rest of the market do you see activity happening? >> i'm not bob showed some of the data on this it's still relative lly small

it's $250 billion. compared to a $21 trillion stock market there's also not a lot of leverage >> you had to make one, there's a billion people in world that have a checking account. it could add up to a much high r price than now >> looks like we're about to switch from monetary policy to fiscal policy. what does that mean for the economy and markets? >> i think it's great news because i think that there are a lot of unattended consequences that we have seen from having the central banks largely fixedd

i think it's a much better, much healthier environment you'll be in i think you'll have a real business cycle in some ways they have reenforced lower inflation by keeping a lot of companies in business that wouldn't ordinarily be in business. the bad news, if there is bad news, is real business cycle means you have a recession you have more volatility you have more action it also, i think is much healthier for the economy as a whole. >> even if this tax form only leads to buy backs, is that still good for the economy >> it's not -- the real test to whether this is good longer term, there's no question in any mind this will be good in the short term, the next year or two. it really depends on whether you get capital spending that's been one of the most c

conspicuous and factors of the economy that's opinion most conspicuous by its absence having the fed be so involved has created a lot of incentives to financial engineering, to issue bonds and buy back stocks. it's good for shareholders but not the average person >> thank you so much for joining us >> thank you we have a news alert in the bond market. ten-year note up for auction how much demand is there to lend money to the u.s. government >> we gave three year notes this morning a b minus for this re-open ten-year note auction. the amount $20 billion i gave it a c minus. the yields was 2.384 on indirect, 64 prz happe% is te

7% dealers take 34.4. it will finish up with 30-year bonds. at this point in time, what do we learn the short end have better demand than the long end. it's hard to handicap the way things align when you go into year end back to you. >> thanks. is facebook no longer cool for teenagers? how many people besides the president are still usiing twitter? we have the statscome iing up what if the house and the senate can't reach a dl?ea a warning coming up right here

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welcome back rbc with a new report out on social media usage today the results show more people are using social media twitter can'ts to get low engagement and satisfaction scores and young people don't seem that interested in facebook good to have you here. >> hey >> we told people the good news. use is on the rise there's specific spots where you're worried facebook, notable drop in 13 to

18-year-olds >> we run this three times every six months we clearly see a fade in usage of facebook. i think most people would feel that's happening the advantage that facebook has is what may have turned out to be one of the best acquisitions is the rice of se of instagram. it's really been kind of teen and millennial hedge for facebook we clearly see it slipping a bit. offset by the instagram rise >> do we assume those people won't evolve to facebookas the get older like maybe facebook is for older people and once they are older, they will use it? >> that's probably a reasonable interpretation i guess we'll talk about that this five years and figure out whether that's what's happening.

people like utilities. there's no emotional attachment but you'll use it to keep in character wi contact with the extended families and friends >> surely the headline is 91% of people already have a facebook account. that's a mature business, isn't it >> in the u.s. it is you have over 2.2 billion people worldwide. it's really three-fourths of everybody who doesn't speak chinese are on facebook. the question is then can they ramp up engagement that's why we looked at things like facebook messenger. that's the play for facebook in the u.s. going forward it's more engagement and better monitorization of that >> why are people still so confused by twitter? >> i think there's a user

interface challenge that's slowly has been improved i think the company is making the content more relevant. i think they have made the sign on process easier. you had a people tried twitter and just didn't find the value out of it that they really wanted it's realtime news source that's great for us cnbc junkies. there's a large swath of the population that's more interested if news from their friends and family rather than realtime news, financial or whatever it is there's a more limited value proposition. there's more snapchat users than twitter users. >> is it unfair to characterize twitter as social.

twitter is a news feed it's not a social media. it's a news distribution platform >> you're dead on. the problem then is the revenue model. that's the same. it's advertising across these platforms and so the question is how valuable is that audience and how good are the targeting tools. the real problem that a twitter and snap chat faces are the two public companies that are in this space and competing for tl dollars. it's very hard to draw anything but experimental budgets away from those there's caution on both of those names. >> did any of this data make you change your position on twitter, facebook and snap? >> no. we think the valuation is the

most attractive. it's our number one pick it's what we wanted twitter to do doesn't mean it can't work out for twitter long time. snap is going through that change,000 we'll see whether the user interface clicks >> which is most exposed to the potential threat of regulation >> actually, google but then probably facebook just given the size >> great stuff thanks for joining us. next, we're going to go live to california for a report on the recoinngosfis ntui to spread scary story. stay with power lunch. oh, not so fast, carl. ♪ oh no. schwab, again? index investing for that low? that's three times less than fidelity...

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ncht here is your cnbc update. a homemade explosive strapped to man inspired by the islamic state group detonated near time square injurying the suspect. the exproelosion triggered a massive emergency response by police and firefighters above

and below the ground the u.n. security council meeting to discuss human rights abuses in north korea. u.s. ambassador to the u.n. defended that decision >> not only should we do this today but we should be doij this more often with other countries. we have seen this in venezuela, syria. these are things if we truly care about prevention, human rights has to be at the heart of it philadelphia eagles quarterback suffered a torn acl. he will miss the rest of the season it major blow to the team wish him well. that's the news update this hour back to you. thank you very much. wildfires in california continuing to spread strong winds making the situation worse. jane is live outside of los angeles with more on this very

scary situation. >> good news no wind. the fog may look like smoke. there's a huge mansion up there underneath the flames. down here at the high school where i am is where some of the 6400 personnel from 12 states are meeting to stage for the day. it also happens to be right next door to a power substation they are keeping a close eye on that this is the fifth largest fire in california modern history it's only 15% contained down there on the south eastern edge. the fire alone has destroyed 800 structures damaged almost 200 others. 18,000 homes remain at a threat. we've had so many fires this year that fire budgets are blown out completely since july cal fire, the state

has spent a half billion tlars we're supposed to be in the rainy season but we haven't had rain for 250 days in this area residents who haven't been told to leave have been told to get ready to >> it's people that are important. then you go back to i've lived here so long and it's comfortable and it's going to take those years to recover emotionally and then physically. it's really a roller coaster of emotio emotions >> reporter: that's mario cordona who had to evacuate yesterday with his family.

there are many, many multi-million dollar estates high pressure rob lowe said he had to evacuate. ellen degeneres said she had to evacuate her pets. guys >> thank you very much for that. let's check back in with the markets. among big movers, twitter is having a nice ta 24% just past three months retail after pressure. conn's dollar tree and michael kors down. consumer staples are down. here's some good news for

you on a busy monday just released report says optimism record high fueled in part by the expectation of tax reform remember, there's no deal yet p house and senate committees will try to come together oen a full bill don't forget about other hurdles including the possibility of a government shut down and the still con tetentious negotiation jay -- >> you just lined up a whole bushel full of problems. >> let's empty the bushel now. what struck me is not just the level of optimism. last year the level was 64.3% of your constituents. it's now 94.6 to what do you attribute a 30% jump in optimism in a 12-month period

>> this is the highest number we have seen. we had a record high then and it just continued really strong numbers. we can invest more, hire more and provide better pay and benefits for our workers that's good news for manufacturers. they are excited about the possibilities ahead. tax reform is right front and center of that optimism. >> it seems like red and blue are on opposite sides of the fe field. we know what's out there why do you think they're so able to put the d.c. fighting to the side and just carry on and hire people and do america's

business >> that's a gate question. i think it all boils down to manufacturers are real people in the real world they are simply trying to make things work. they provide solutions they are problem solvers and they want to make things that we cannot only sell here in this country but we can sell across the world. they care about the manufacturing worker that's good for manufacturing workers. >> a lot of americans will hear that very well regarded economist like larry summers written repeatedly about how

badly he thinks things are going. thousands will die as a consequence of this tax bill he has another one out today about a sugar high that the economy is on. what would you say to that >> i would say that thousands of people will be enfit from th-- t from this tax reform legislation. that's really what we're focused on you couple that with tax reform legislation and assuming we get it right and we had that 20% corporate rate in a similar competitive rate for pass throughs and assuming we get the territorial system in and interest deductibility and get rid of that silly amp thing they were talk about for a while. if we get it right, we'll grow this economy couple that with regulatory reform reducing the burdens on manufacturers who are simply

trying to do the right thing and make ends meet and hire new people i think there's no end in sight how we can grow this economy >> unemployment already fairly low by any historical comparis n comparison does this lead to more hiring or does it lead to higher wages how does it play out this terms of market? >> i think it's yes and yes. three fifths say they want to hire new workers over half say they want to provide better paying benefits right now we have 350,000 jobs in manufacturing that are open as we improve conditions for the manufacturing sectors, there's more investment made in the united states. there's going to be more opportunities. we predict there could be two million jobs open by the year 2025 what we're seeing is we're in need for higher skills up skilling the jobs that really constitute modern manufacturing. a lot of that has to do with

technology it involves robotics and artificial intelligence. there's still a need for those traditional jobs that people think about. we're kpietsed about the possibility. we want to make sure folks are trained to do the jobs of future >> i want to ask about a guy that's well known to our audience that's former new jersey congressman scott garrett. he's being nominated to head up the export, import bank. you think he's a terrible idea you have a campaign saying anybody but garrett. he's a republican, by the way. what is your issue with scott garrett? >> for manufacturers, everything that we do is about policy it's not about politics. now he wants to run it

>> few republicans will say that's picking winners and losers that's about supporting one sector of the economy over another one. there's a lot of strong policy work by conservatives who say the export, import bank should not exist. >> unfortunately, they are not looking at reality the reality is 95 countries around the world have their own export, import bank. if we do what mr. garrett has h advocated and shut down the bank, we lose opportunities for our manufacturers that will be taken by manufacturers in those 95 other countries why would we want to throw literally tens of thousands of manufacturing workers out of their jobs because of a silly political football in that's not what we're about this this

country. >> we got another topic we want to get to related to this. >> carlos was on squawk box. he voiced concerns about the future of nafta. listen to this and respond >> i think all the signs are that the list is truly willing to walk away people feel that the demands on the table are so strong that the u.s. wants to walk away. nafta could go away. >> how will potential changes or elimination of nafta impact american manufacturers >> i don't think any manufacturer wants to see the elimination of nafta our executive committee came in to speak to ross

i don't think there is an interest in eliminating nafta. what i think there's an interest in doing is ensuring that the deal is right for all three countries and not lopsided we don't like this five year, sunset rule. we think there has to be some sort of dispute settlement resolution device in the agreement. look, i think when they're talking about content whether it's north american or american content, there are changes that can be made. those conversations are going on right now. i'm optimistic that we will see a new and renewed nafta that all three parties can agree to because t right for american manufacturer and right for american manufacturing workers >> all right

>> thank you we got to go >> larry is a great friend we have -- >> we have to go larry, is very pro-free trade. his intel from the white house is he's worried about it following up, we'll get the latest from the white house on tax reform kevin hassett will join us at 2:30 p.m. eastern time you do not want to miss that shares are of bluebird bio are flying high. spark is not sparking. they are plummeting. we're going to go live to the big lelt care tomorrow atlanta. the stock is higher by more than 2.5% power lunch is back after this e? oh yeah sure... ok, like what? but i thought we were supposed to be talking about investing for retirement?

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meg is live at the conference where this news is stemming from and joining us now >> a lot of news here. really the big theme is sort of an emerging new way of treating disease both cancer and blood diseases in one time treatments. bluebird is up on multiple presentations it has here at the conference one in sickle cell disease take a listen to what nick, the ceo of bluebird told us today about that >> transform the ability to help patients that are really considering hospice and how to get their affairs in order >> on the flip side we're seeing a big decline with spark

therapeuti therapeutics investors are responding well to continuing the theme, we have a guest joining us john, thank you for being here >> thank you >> you have a different approach instead of going to gene therapy one time treatment route, you have more traditional drugs that are on the market. we feel good about the products. we got really focused on these two products very, very novel way ahead of their time.

>> how much of a threat do you see gene therapy some people are using the word rur. how much of a disruption would that be? >> it's interesting to listening to your remarks just previously. we're working on gene therapy. we believe long term it's going to ultimately have a big impact on the market. that's ten plus years out in the future in the meantime you're seeing companies trying to prove through some of the issues which is great they are trying to reit and you see the ability from patient to patient. it causes these stock prices to move back and forth. we're working on some other products >> speaking sort of more

broadly, one area where investors have focused is potential tax overhaul you have a 35% corporate tax rate, which is higher than what a lot of bio teches pay. how much would tax reform affect your business? >> we're a fully integrated company. we have a commercial organization we have revenues that have been growing. our revenues are up 30 plus percent year over year we pay taxes we're paying a high rate relative to other companies. we're positive about the tax progress >> the other big political issue for your industry is drug prices

how do you look at how much the system can bear. >> when we think about the prices that we have today, if you look at the use of our drugs, they are expensiveexpense but we're investing in innovation and over time you see c consumption and health products improve but often with a company like ours, our work is putting 20% of that right back into research so we're talking about sickle cell disease and we're doing gene editing work for sickle sell and betathal and we'll be in sickle cell soon so that research is very important to us and at some point i'd like to talk to you about the work that we're doing as well. >> john cox, thanks for being here. >> thank you very much >> back over to you. >> meg, thank you very much for

that coming up in march of 2018, cnbc will be hosting its first every health care conference it's being called healthy returns and we'll focus on the crossroads of health innovation and investment this will feature investors and entrepreneurs about the business of health care on wednesday, march 28th, 2018 is the date in new york city. for more information and to get tickets, go to cnbc.com. let's go to dominic chu. what have you got? >> we're seeing performance leadership coming from the nasdaq composite outperforming the other indices as well. in the past week, it's up 1.5% versus the broader s & p up two-thirds of 1% it's something traders are keeping a close eye on, michelle back over to you. >> dom, thank you.

pretalk is next. plus, bitcoin futures trading. it's finally here. what does it mean for the crypto currency will it make it more legit

all right. time for street talk , our dail dive into the street talk calls. >> automate particular data, expecting stronger bookings in 2018 because 2017 was rough due to uncertainty about what was going to happen with the affordable care act. also, given tax reform, thinks a adp add another 13% to the corporate tax rate. >> also tax-related, discover financial, barclays boost it to 93 from 73 they say cheap stocks getting cheaper with tax reform likely to pass and even moves higher lately analysts see more to come.

and more households will have more to spend at 93 target on dfs. 25% upside >> yeah. 74 bucks all right. thir

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here's what's topping your second hour of "power. is bitcoin more mainstream than you think or should you still be wary we'll debate plus, the white house's counsel economic adviser kevin hasset is here we'll talk taxes and whether a trillion dollar infrastructure plan is on the way. and the nfl inking a big deal with verizon but it's not what you think you can watch on any carrier the second hour of "power lunch" kicks off right now. let's take a look at stocks. they are marketedly higher

within tech, apple and netease and apple are at the top celgene among the top market performers tyson foods and kimberly-clark and mccormick all down apple and walt disney is at the top of the dow. according to a new report, household stock holdings are at the highest ever 36.3% of their money was put in stocks apple is buying song recognizing company shazam for an undisclosed amount that figures out which song is playing right now. and the new york yankees announce that they have traded the national league mvp john carlos stanton >> do you think you could have

shazam that music and it would say "power lunch" music? >> i don't know. i bet it's registered somewhere. >> it's that good, we don't want anyone ripping it off. >> no. >> as bitcoin begins to trade, it may make the currency feel like a more traditional asset to investors but there's a long way to go before it can be called close to stable. dom chu is here with more. >> we only have one day of trading in the books but let's look at bitcoin futures currently how they stack up to more stable futures markets. for bitcoin future, as traded around 3600 contracts today, one futures contract equals one bitcoin. that's around $64.5 million in terms of total volume. we know it's only one day and, yes, we know -- let's jump ahead to the nonapples to apples

comparison but we put it in size and scope against other relative trades in futures markets. let's go to cold on average it trades about 500,000 contracts a day. each contract is 100 ounces of gold which means that on a daily basis we trade around $62.5 billion in gold for comex. another one, big, big one, wti crude, trading around 2.5 million contracts a day. each of those contracts, a huge amount of oil totalling about $145 billion in total size and, again, we know it's not apples to apples but it spoo he cans to the bitcoin future still has a long way to go from being close to the other established futures contracts. >> dom, thank you for that stick around for this conversation coming up will futures trading make bitcoin a more valuable asset? let's bring in the ceo of cboe vest and two things we've just been

discussing, although it's part of cboe, you don't directly represent the futures in the last 12 hours? >> that's right. thanks for having me it's great to be here. i present the asset management of cboe and not the cbo. >> we should be calling it cbo, not cboe >> that's correct. >> you spent six years at barclays capital a well place to discuss this first question, then, now that we are having a formal futures exchange exposed to insurance institutional investors and expose it, how encouraging is it that the price has risen in the last 24 hours? >> i think it's encouraging but you can't read too much into it. it's a lower volume day compared to the millions in the stock market but generally speaking the launch of the futures is a resounding to the space and i

think, also, it has the potential to dampen the liquidity that bitcoin has seen. and i think in the long run it's good for bitcoin >> how big of a step legitimacy is this step that we've seen in the last 24 hours in terms of the scale of where you'd like it to get that it's gone through that vote of confidence, you know, based on comparison to complicated products you've helped develop in the first place and maybe people were skeptical of them to begin with but lost it to the test of time? >> yeah. so it is a watershed event in this space and i think in a couple of ways first, bitcoin has had this cloud of, you know, unregulated marketplace and now you have a future, an instrument which is regulated and second aspect, which is not to be undermined, is it's hard to hold bitcoin to

any secure fashion there's no mainstream brokerage firm so for the investment community to have a future, which fits into the operational plumbing of the industry, is paramount as far as the scale and volumes go i think as a first day, this is an alarming success if you compare it to some of the markets that dominic was talking about and go back to the first day of that product, i think from that measure it's a great start. >> you no he what they have in common they have etfs and etps. when can we expect to see etfs certain parties have been trying for a while and have been rejected by regulators >> that's avery interesting question so we've -- there's no explicit guidance by the regulator, you know, that this is going to be the aspect that will take it

into a product but if you read into the comments that they have made with regard to the existing applications, some of which have been denied, it has a stronger promise akin to some of the things that you talked about, oil-based etp. >> you know what i can't figure out, if we're going to look back on these last couple of weeks when we cover bitcoin and is it going to be katie couric asking what is in the internet or is it going to be akin to cdo squares where people were trading all kinds of things that we all could not understand. >> right. >> people claimed that they did but obviously didn't and it's really just a big thing that is going to blow up what is it >> i think it's a strong fundamental use case for bitcoin which is as a value of the currency now, of course, the investment

interest in bitcoin has outpaced the fundamental interest and at some point i do see a correction before they catch up but, no, fundmentally the use case of the technology to use as a currency or as a digital gold is very promising. >> in terms of ultimate legitimacy and outright endorsement, many people point to whether a government would support bitcoin out there. where do you stand on that and if they started using their own cryptcurrency, would that lead to existing ones like bitcoin to collapse in value? >> yeah, that's a great question you know, having a limited amount of bitcoin out there and potentially being used as a store of value makes it akin to gold which is not government control. so there is promise despite no

government assistance and then there are other currencies which are coming up. so i'd say, yes, so many different applications that this technology can power and as a result, there are so many different currencies which can make a good investment case. >> okay. we'll have to leave it there thank you for joining us of cbo vest. not cboe. the nfl and verizon struck a multi-year deal to allow users to stream on their phone julia boorstin explains. julia? >> verizon will pay $2.5 billion to the nfl over the next two years. verizon is not getting exclusive access to nfl games for its moe mobile subscribers but it is paying more because any carrier can watch on verizon's platforms and they are hoping to grow ad

revenue and streaming from phones to any mobile device. and for the nfl, with declining tv ratings, it hopes to reach a broader audience through verizon. >> we want to make sure that whatever we do is complementary with our network partners. we think this is reaching consumers that are not actually watching on television they are looking to watch on other devices and we want to make sure that we are there. that's part of the changing television landscape and media landscape that we need to be in those places. >> the nfl's growing value is part of a larger trend, both traditional media platforms and now amazon and facebook look to secure the rare content that fans want to watch in realtime the new report projects that the north american sports industry would grow over 3% annually to nearly $79 billion by the year 2 2021 media rights are by far the

faster growing part of this business we'll see how much growth comes from the network deals coming up for the renewal. guys back over to you. on "power lunch," wildfires continue to rage the fifth largest in california's state history we'll take you there for the latest kevin hasset sits down with us to talk the fate of nafta. plus, don't ring the bell yet. why brick and mortar retail may not be down for the count. all of that and much more here on "power lunch.

rosy picture of economic growth. let's get more details on this and bring in ylan mui from washington. >> this is their attempt to back that up. the report projects gdp will average 2.9% over the decade which translates to an additional $1.8 trillion in value. the treasury says there will be a net gain of 300 billion at the end of the decade. now, this is way more optimistic than just about every other $400

billion over the decade and today the tax policy center, their out with their own dine kna dynamic analysis that shows a gain of just $186 billion. and the treasury page is one page long and the tax bill is 479 pages long they say growth will be higher due to infrastructure spending and regulatory as well as welfare reform and most of those have not happened just yet chuck schumer called this estimate, quote, one page of fake math. dems have called for treasury's internal watchdog to look at how the analysis is compiled and when treasury's estimate comes as the conference committee holds its first public meeting on wednesday i'm not sure it's going to make the fiscal hawks, like bob corker, any better back over to you. >> ylan, thank you very much. speaking of taxes, coming

up, an interview you can't afford to miss we'll be joined by kevin hassett, chairman of the u.s. council. >> how should you be prepping your portfolio to get the biggest benefit? let's bring in chief investment strategist and viceçchairman d head of the investment group guys, it's good to have you here. >> thanks for having us. >> i want to start with bitcoin. i don't want to ask if you believe it in, none of that, but what i want to know is what do you think of the willingness of so many people to get involved in the speculation of bitcoin right now when we have taxi drivers, uber drivers, grandparents asking us about it. does it feel like one of the things that can sometimes happen the later stages of a rally? >> yeah, it does look, it's -- right now it's a fad. a fad sometimes turns into permanent things but right now

so much heat is being laid on bitcoin. there are wild swings in volatility it's not a room store value right now. i think right now it's popular interest driving demand function in a market that no one really fully understands what is driving prices other than overwhelming demand. >> does it make you worry about the broader market in terms of how much is left in this rally >> well, i don't know -- bitcoin is a relatively small thing in the scope of things so i think it's an interesting small thing and, yeah, we are worried about the fact that we are, you know, in the ninth year of this economic recovery and unemployment is at a very low level, asset values are very high and the federal reserve is likely to raise rates again this week they are going to raise rates three more times next year that starts putting recession in 2019 in play and that's something to be thinking about

than maybe bitcoin. >> charlie, this is my way to ask are we late in the rally how much more can we get does bitcoin tell you that speculation is so rift it's one of the things that happens at the end of a rally, ala pets.com >> yeah, i think they're separate enough that we don't have to worry about it i'd be looking at more about how amazon has behaved as in evidence of a late rally in tech stocks so that's more concern than bitcoin. bitcoin is small i agree with eric, it doesn't have a big impact on the stock market overall >> are we at the late stages of a rally? is it almost over? >> charlie, go ahead. >> i would say no. we've got all of the indications that we can go higher. the economy is going to be better than people think i think you can see how the stock market reacts to the tax cuts i think it's an 80% probability that it's going to get passed.

earnings have to come up and when that happens it's hard for the stock market to underperform. >> so how do we make money in to 18, charlie? >> you rotate into the areas that haven't perform ed as well and value stocks have really trailed these high-tech amazons and facebooks of the world so what's going to do well next year, we're going to have more inflation than people think. a tighter labor market, economies around the world growing. we just had wages up 2.5%. that doesn't sound like much but it's a big upward trend. we're going to have more inflation. stocks that benefit from more inflation are going to do better. >> what about internationally, eric are you still bullish on that? i guess one can point to an improving economic picture but those markets are up very strongly year to date, too >> they are. but they are farther behind than the economic cycle and farther behind in the monetary policy cycle and their valuations are better so even though they've gone up, they are still cheaper than u.s.

stocks so we really think that what's going to win in 2018 is going to look a lot like what is won this year u.s. stocks have done very well. emerging better still. from a u.s. investor perspective. so we think that trend is likely to continue. we think the bulls are going to be enforced for the first half of the year at least the economy is going to expand and earnings better than expected that should fuel positive momentum in the first half of the year the second half, it will likely rotate towards higher recessionary risk beginning to poke up and concerns about when that next recession is going to hit. >> air rec and charlie, thank you. we'll have to leave it there. straight ahead, thousands of californians are under evacuation orders as wildfires grow to 230,000 acres. we'll take you there live. and amazon's second hq is being welcomed with open arms but wormers, not so much that story is ahead on "power lunch" o.

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come of the california wildfires are now a week old the brave firefighters are struggling to contain them in one blaze exploding overnight as high winds expand as the thomas fire. it covers a stunning 230,000 acres making this fire the fifth biggest in california history. jane wells is live in california with the latest. jane >> reporter: i'm going to tell you, brian, what is happening with this fire right now as we're in carpentria. as it comes down on this side, it moves much more slowly. it's called the backing fire the part that is ashy right now, that was burning as of an hour ago. as it comes down into carpinteria, we've got 6400 firefighters here from 12 states on the lines as well as 27

helicopters but we've only see a few so far because they can only fly when they can see where they're going. now, the thomas fire jumped more than 50,000 acres just in one day. it's the only fire still rages in so cal. it's bigger than chicago and boston combined. in montecito, the homes are currently threatened residents like kelsey woke up to see dozens of fire trucks staging across the street from her home this morning. >> pretty scary. the 1 and 2 are closed and we have to show i.d. to get into our residence. so, yeah >> reporter: do you feel better having them here >> yeah. it's definitely encouraged to be protected by a line of these hardworking firemen so it's been

great. >> as we see the helicopter go back to get more water, this is very expensive and let alone it will cost the hundreds of homeowners and their insurance companies. this fire is just -- just this fire is $34 million for the firefighting agencies. and there are still other fires being wrapped up, including the one in bel air guys, fire department officials are having trouble because people are getting up there on the streets to take selfies. they are saying, please, stop it brian? >> yeah, please stop very dangerous as well jane wells, thank you very much. all right. straight ahead, a big interview from d.c. that you cannot afford to miss. the chair of the council of economic advisers kevin hassett will talk tax reform andheer wel get an infrastructure bill as well. don't go away. "power lunch" returns right after this

hello, everyone. i'm sue herera here's your news update at this hour transgender people can enlist in the military beginning january 1st despite president trump's opposition the new policy reflects growing legal pressure on the issue and the difficult hurdles the federal government would have in enforcing any ban.

palestinian protesters gathering outside u.s. buildings in jerusalem to demonstrate against the u.s.' decision to recognize jerusalem as the israeli capital. it's the fifth straight day of demonstrations saudi arabia says it will allow movie theaters to open in the country next year for the first time in 35 years it's the latest social push by the country's young crown prince he was also behind lifting a ban on women driving and bringing back concerts and other forms of entertainment. and questions are being raised today on how the houston texans let quarterback tom savage back in the game after a really hard hit left him on the ground with his hands shaking. coach bill o'brien says savage was cleared to go back in after the initial hit but then after he was rechecked, he was pulled from the game. and the nfl says it's looking into whether or not the proper protocols were followed. back to you. >> thank you, sue. let's get a check on the markets as well.

major indiceses trading at this hour dow is up 15 basis points and nasdaq leading the charge up around half a percent. energy tech are your top sectors. sim man tech, apple and ea energy is higher due to names like chesapeake, range resources and newfield exploration investors are checking up on bitcoin. it's up around 12% 16,473 let's check the oil market which is closing for the day and go to jackie d. at the commodity desk >> crude is rising just under 58 after the close with a gain of 1% oil, of course, continues in this most recent range close to $60 but not quite that high two events to watch this week both on wednesday, the ei inventory report technically, will u.s. production set another weekly record and also opec's

monthly report is out that day the production on which players are really cutting their production numbers michelle >> thank you, jackie american manufacturers are more upbeat with plans to hire and spend big if tax reform passes millions of family and keeping american competitive to the rest of the world, with us now is kevin hassett. good to have you here, kevin. >> it's great to be here >> so treasury put out a one-page assessment of the tax bill moving through with the senate it's gotten a lot of pushback from a lot of quarters where they argue that they are going to raise $1.8 trillion in increased tax revenue. do you want to defend that number >> it's absolutely defendable. it's something that treasury secretary steve mnuchin has said all along. it will add about a percent a year over the next decade.

that was clear in the budget documents last spring and in the memo that the treasury put out and if you assume that you get that kind of growth, usually for an extra dollar gdp, you get 20% of revenue it's looking at math and the normal effect of those three policies. >> i don't know if you saw larry summers today. he says that the economy faces a comedown from its sugar high and said thousands would die as a result of this >> yeah, that's right. so maybe it's like a diabetic sugar high but the fact is that larry has a view that is earnestly held about what makes the world tick and we tried that in the last eight years and it didn't really work i think it's time to reassess and think about what we can do to get the economy regoing again. as we've adopted the president's vision of deregulation and tax cuts and then next year

infrastructure, we've seen markets rejoice and the company head back to normal. we're in a new new normal and we're back to 3% and that's at odds with everything that the obama administration economists were telling us. i'm not accused of being partisan but i think it's being disapprove enby the data. i can ask you, how much do we need before we throw away the hypothesis that they gave us before the last election we're never going to have 3% again, right >> 3% is not great it's good. >> yeah. >> but it is good. >> sure. >> i want to change. the most-read article over the weekend was, i guess, a screw-up in the tax bill which would create 100% tax rate on some people that are independently employed and high earners. i assume somebody's going to fix that >> they are working on all of these things in conference and so just go aside from that

specific provision because that's something that we're not getting out in front of the conference on. what happens is sometimes there's a tax benefit and then you lose it if your income goes above a certain level and if you don't phase it out, you can have an extra dollar of income and your marginal tax rate for a moment is above 100% and as they scrub the thing and move it towards the final bill, they are looking for things like that to make sure that they are smooth i haven't spoken specifically with the members of congress on that topic but i would guess it would fall into the kind of fix that they are working on right now. >> would the tax reform proposals that you guys are going through at the moment, would they have a better effect if they had come earlier >> no, i don't think so. in fact, i think it's the reverse. this is precisely the right time to have the tax reform that we're pursing. what happens in economic history is that wages start to go up as you get close to full employment

and they start to go up because of capital formation and one reason that we haven't had the wage growth is it's being chased overseas by our inadequate tax code so by having a tax reform now, we're saying, hey, america is open for business again. start giving us the capital that is deepening productivity. right now exactly at this moment, in order to get the wage growth that we should get in the cycle, we need to bring the capital home and that's something that this tax bill does. >> what about the national debt if some of these calculations are wrong about how much money is going to be generated on a positive side of growth? is there a level of national debt that you would consider that you don't want to hit over the next 12 to 24 months that would suggest that this bill was perhaps a little too expensive >> well, that's a question for congress but remember, what happens is that we put plants here, invested in new plant marichine

and over time gdp will be a heck of a lot higher. so i would expect that in the first year, for example, if we have a capital spending boom and everybody is expensing it, there's not going to be a big increase incorporate tax expense but the capacity will be online and cea put out a report that we estimate out ten years are 3 to 5% higher on gdp and if we're 5% higher, that's a heck of a lot more revenue. >> kevin, there's a guy named john arnold that until zuckerberg was the richest debts of the u.s. government are just debts of the american people the tax cut adds 8,000 of debt per household to get a tax cut of about 35,000 over ten years for average family of four do you agree with that line of thinking is this a new republican way of believing that deficits don't necessarily matter as much as they used to

>> i think deficits absolutely matter but we have to be realistic about what kind of revenue we're going to get and so right now we have the highest tax in the world and the joint tax committee tells us you're going to lose revenue if you cut your corporate rate. imagine if we look at how much activity was moved offshore last year and how many inversions there were last year think about what it would look like if we didn't change anything and i reject to you that this big tax reform is going to cost us a lot of money. but if we saw deficits were krin he is dramatically from the current baseline, i'm sure congress and the president would think about what they're going to do about that we don't expect that that's a realistic scenario think about what the baseline is we have the lowest revenue of anybody on the corporate side and that's with the highest rate and so i think that having those arguments in the corporate tax space is what we should be doing. so therefore a tweet about how

much we're going to lose if we cut the corporate tax rate to 20 it's not relative to the competition. >> larry kudlow who you know well, he's worried that the president is going to pull out of nafta very worried about it. is he? >> there are active negotiations going on you should have bob on to talk about the state of those >> would it be bad if he did that >> people have said over and over, that i've talked to, that the negotiations are making progress and everybody is hopeful that they will reach a positive income outcome. >> will it be bad if the u.s. pulls out of nafta >> nafta has caused some harm and some good and everybody is hopeful that it will end well. >> we going to get a trillion dollar infrastructure plan snl dispinted so far. >> i think the president was right to prioritize tax reform and if you look at how close it is to the end zone, we'll have a

tax bill hopefully in the next week or two and then it's important to move on to our next priorities which are going to be welfare rerm form fixing that at the beginning was the right judgment of the president. >> are you very confident that it happens in the next week or two, before christmas? >> i'm not a political analyst i'm just an economist. from what i'm hearing about the conference, there's a heck of a lot of progress being made and the house and senate are splitting their differences as well and that a tax bill signed and ready for them by christmas, which, by the way, means that the irs can then start to work on changing the withholding tables and everybody will see their tax cut early next year because it will change their take home pay. >> kevin, if you were still at aei, you'd be forced to be thinking about bitcoin do you think there should be regulation >> you know, that is something that i have not in any way

emersed myself in but i'm very impressed by what's happened to the price of bitcoin and it's not something that makes me want to rush out and buy it a heck of a lot of things would make you nervous if you jumped in precisely now but i haven't done any analysis or anything like that. >> thank you, kevin. and 183 days to go until christmas. which retailers are feeling jolly and which are blue and why the brick and mortar may have been greatly exaggerated we're back in a couple of minutes.

it's a small finger...a worm! like, a dagger? a tiny sword? bread...breadstick? a matchstick! a lamppost! coin slot! no? uhhh... 10 seconds. a stick! a walking stick! eiffel tower, mount kilimanjaro! (ding) time! sorry, it's a tandem bicycle. what? what?!

as long as sloths are slow, you can count on geico saving folks money. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. well, it'sonce again.eason >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing.

>>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade. why this investor is a big-time bitcoin believer. that's tomorrow on "squawk box." you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. welcome back amazon still mulling over where to put their second headquarters a new survey shows that workers think it's a good thing if amazon comes to their town but would they want to work there? that's a different story hey, kate. >> that's right. >> over 200 proposals and a surveymonkey shows that they are supportive of calling amazon home to hq 75% said it would be a good

thing for their area and 38% they would want to work for the giant. 18% said they definitely want to work for amazon. 51% said possibly and 28% said definitely not amazon pr amazon prime subscribers were more supportive with having the hq nearby. 62% said it would be a good thing. in another survey of small business owners in september, 35% of small business owners said amazon was good for small bids while 42% said it was a bad thing and 8% said their business competes with amazon for customers. this quarter's version of the small business survey found that confidence among small business owners is unchanged at 57 indicating that small business owners are more optimistic than pessimistic about the direction that their business will head in the next 12 months and president trump's approval rating has headed higher all thanks that tax reform will soon come to

pass >> a little surprised that people don't want it there did they dig into why? >> no. it would be a good boost in the economy but people aren't too keen on that >> can i give a much needed shoutout to the post office? they get trampled on all the time they were delivering amazon packages yesterday, sunday, in the snow in my neighborhood, busting their homes. they never get a shoutout, so, thank you. i guess that shows where we're ordering from. a strong black friday weekend kicked off this year's holiday shopping season now with 13 days until christmas. is the momentum still strong let's bring in jim fallon. it's interesting, jim, because you can talk about online and it's always going to grow because it came from zero and it's still relatively in its early stages 90% of retail is it still down offline.

>> yes. >> what's going to be hot this year from a physical store perspective? >> physical stores, you're going to see, of course, walmart is doing very, very well. >> have they found the magic sauce to compete against amazon? >> they are finding it i wouldn't say they found it >> they are mixing it? >> they are getting the ingredients together let's put it that way. and then you also see some of the beauty change to sephora and ulta and particularly american eagle is doing well and williams-sonoma is doing well because of the home goods and those who were challenged, still the department stores are challenged you're seeing j. crew challenged and dress barn. >> many would say j. crew lost their way fashionwise. that aside, let's go to beauty really quickly is beauty non-amazonable you want to test it and -- >> amazon does sell some beauty but the prestige brands are reluctant to go on am sdplazon t

it's trying desperately to get those brands on to the platform. ulta, for example, you're able to get your hair done and manicures and that kind of thing. >> what's the next thing in fashion? the last big thing that really changed the way women in particular dressed was apple leisure. >> which was still hot. >> you don't see as many women walking down the street in -- >> because the denim market responded and so you're seeing a lot more stretch denim coming through. so to your point, as every woman had a pair of leggings in her closet, denim started making a comeback the sneaker market is still booming, both men and women. and i can't see that ending. you're going to see a constant casualization of the way people dress. >> i hate that i mean, don't you want to put on a suit don't you want to put on a suit every day? >> yes, some days.

most days. but you may very well see, some anecdotal evidence that the younger generation is, again, reacting back and teenagers are wanting to startto dress up again. it's cyclical. >> i spoke to the banks he owes last week who are were encouraging about the overall level of consumer spending we haven't had results from the retailers yet. to what extent do you think that boost in top line will deliver or is it discount delivered and -- >> the margins are going to be tough to deliver because you're already seeing 35, 40, 50% off signs. now, a lot of those promotions are planned but this fourth quarter is one you never really make. >> and could we dispel a spareable rumor, fake news we always hear black friday is the busiest shopping day of the year it's the saturday before christmas. >> right. >> because everybody procrastinates >> right. >> is it fair to say right now, we have 13 days, we don't know how it's going to shape up >> we don't know for certainty it's probably going to be one of the best christmases in a while

and the forecast of 3.5 to 4% growth look like they are pretty accurate some say up to 6% in which case that would take us back to a level not seen since 2010. >> i haven't bought a single christmas gift yet >> saturday before not sunday. >> you don't buy anything for anybody, you're already done shopping congratulati congratulations. >> still one or two people. >> wilf says happy christmas. >> he does he also wakes up in a suit. >> touche. >> and swims in one. everything airline stocks are taking off. get it this busy travel season. will they continue to store or is this just a holiday bump? we're going to debate it straight ahead right here on "power lunch." but they're not what people really invest in. what people really invest in, is what they hope to get out of life. but helping them get there takes a pure focus. because when you invest their money without distraction, hidden agenda or competing interests,

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time you for "trading nation," let's trade the airline stocks, southwest, american, delta, posted pretty big gains in the past month. is it still worth your money now? ari wall with oppenheimer. eddie with adviser shares. eddie, what do you think big run in the airlines. time to sell or time to buy? >> i think they had a big run in the past month i still think they have some room to go i mean, if you look, there are two big reasons.

one is they came off a really strong thanksgiving holiday that looks like we're going to ramp up for a strong christmas season also i think that will carry into next year and the other reason is we see that the fare wars are beginning to wane i think the best name in the sector is delta right now. >> okay. delta, your pick ari, as a group, how does it look >> as a group, they look okay. i like the transports here they're breaking higher. airline subset more of a mixed bag. i think you want to be selective when you buy them. our top idea for exposure is southwest airlines sticker luv here's why we love it. it's probably the only airline that is both able to rally through its 2015 high, it broke out, and it's also on a summertime fullback in the industry it held that support as well so just as far as characteristics of an up trend, southwest has them versus some of the others. so the stock has had a nice near-term run. it's pushing up to its $64 prior

high there's resistance here. longer term, you're playing to a breakout to new high. >> he loves, loves, southwest airlines thank you very much. for more with t"trading nation"o the interweb "check please" is next. >> now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and word from our sponsor. >> one way to manage a winning trade is place a trailing stop order when your target price has been reached a trailing stop order is an order type that automatically moves your stop loss higher as a stock moves up, but when the stock starts moving down, the ght veiter remains at the hieslel was dragged to, keeping you in control of your trade. ♪

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>> so the ugly christmas sweater, and cryptocurrencies come together in one you can now get a cryptocurrency sweater. for $59.99 and they are ugly. there's the bitcoin cryptocurrency ugly sweater. there's also an ethereum, it comes if blue and light coin comes in -- >> they're not $17 is,000 but they're expensive. >> $59.99 for one of these is pretty pricey. considering how ugly >> i'm surprised particularly at cnbc for the office sweater competition. i think it's a price worth paying given how much we talk about it. >> pretty ugly is a great oxymor oxymoron someone suggests cryptocurrency is also one. why is it in pittsburgh penguins colors as well >> oh, interesting.

speaking of cryptocurrencies, we were talking earlier, we had our great guest, joe, who said some people were taking out mortgages to buy bitcoin one of our sharp-eyed viewers, thank you, tweeted this to me. a google ad, buy bitcoin with your ira now, i don't know if that's a -- if bitcoin is going to go up or down, guys, but i would say if your retirement fund needs to be there when you're 65, 70, you need it there, a speculative cryptocurrency may not always be your best bet for -- i'm not saying they're not good investors, but for your retirement money, be careful >> it could allow you to retire within the next week as well. >> correct or never >> or never. there we go. i picked the golden globe nominations, they came out earlier today and singled out a couple in particular, so jessica chastain 2345inamed for best acs for "molly's game," very, very

good film. and gary for playing winston chur chur churchill in "the darkest hour." it's that season, going to be talking about movies a lot. >> always tremendous. >> always tremendous, playing churchill. there's been a couple depictions of churchill this one's awesome. >> you one the would be the exp. you're our inhouse englishman. >> i'm not sure about that. >> we're not sure you're english? >> "closing bell" starts now hi, everybody, happy monday. welcome to the "closing bell," i'm kelly ef en vans at the newk stock exchange. >> i'm scott wapner if for bill griffeth the ceo tells us his side of the story in an exclusive interview coming up. . and apple makes it official. confirming its a ing a