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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 15, 2017 5:00pm-5:30pm EST

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but, you know, the problem is it's always people like stan druckenmiller who made their fortune off the carried interest >> it gives them more credibility. >> it does i believe there's a lot of things until the tax plan including keeping the carried interest that hopefully do not set us up for, you know, pitch forks and burning torches a year or two from now. >> thank you for your responses. send it over "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square tonight on "fast," bitcoin futures on the cboe taking the market by storm this week as wall street gets ready for it to come to the next exchange. the cme on sunday. just moments ago, td ameritrade announced they will allow bitcoin futures on monday. the future is kelly will tell y everything you need to know.
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we've got something bigger in store for next week. meantime track how much money you're making by the minute with the bitcoin bug via coinbase right now on your screen the other big story this week, disney closing its deal to buy parts of fox michael burns is here to weigh in on the media mayhem could his company be the next target first, what all the wall street is waiting for, tax cuts. we're moments away from the release of the tax bill. let's check in with eamon javers in d.c. for the latest >> reporter: hi, melissa the big reveal coming up at 5:30, people waiting to see whether particular measures got in or out of the final bill, released at 5:30 eastern time. there were major developments today including two key senators who came off the fence and said they're going to vote yes. that's marco rubio who apparently got much of what he wanted or at least enough of
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what he wanted on the child tax credit, and senator bob corker who was the only no vote in the senate last time around, he's a yes this time around, he says. that indicates that the white house should be feeling pretty good about all this. and in fact the white house is feeling good about all this, sarah huckabee sanders putting out a statement thanking president corker, saying the president great appreciates the senator's phone call, he is part of that entrepreneurial spirit in this country. jobs and growth will follow at a very high level. the white house enthused by the progress they've seen so far today. it looks like, melissa, they will have the votes in the united states senate to pass this bill. of course it's not over until the voting actually happens. that will begin on tuesday, likely with the house of representatives going first.
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remember, once this bill is conferenced, both the house and senate have to pass it again so the house will vote first on tuesday, then the senate the expectation is the republicans have the votes here. one possible hiccup to watch, though, is senator john mccain his health has not been good this week. he's been in the hospital. that's one potential issue that could arise. any number of other issues could arise. but people are starting to use words like "all wrapped up" and "clinched" to describe the republicans on the vote for the tax bill >> eamon javers in d.c., thanks a lot. the euphoria is starting to seep into the market from tax cuts. all three major indices closing at record highs. could we see dow 25,000 before the 25th, tim? >> i'll tell you what, i know steve loves mariah carey >> who doesn't >> if you think about what happened this week, which will probably be crowned in a few
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minutes, you had enormous retail sales numbers, gdp in japan which is very high, a european pmi composite which was the best in seven years you've had data, data, data to support gdp upgrades and now we have this frankly if you think about the implications for this sector by sector, banks look the best. consumer discretionary looks probably the best to benefit on an eps basis from a corporate tax cut. but there's a lot of revisions that are going to now come through from the street, a lot of folks were waiting around for this, they had to, and here we are. >> revisions, high earnings, already looking gool >> you look at it and say etf mode right now, you can buy anything and it's going to get that benefit as this starts to work in, you look at the individual deduction. you say to yourself, what's going to fall to the bottom line for individual companies what are cfos doing now that's creative and how does this tax rate actually affect your business and their company also think about this. there's going to be certain -- a
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lot of competitive pressures there will be price cuts to compete that may not show up in this when you look at whatever% tax cut, there's price cuts that are going to be competitive sort of pressures that are not going to -- >> what do you mean by price cuts >> you look at companies like macy's, they're u.s.-centric >> you're saying they're going to cut prices further because they have a lower tax rate >> no. we have a lower tax rate, that will allow them to cut prices to compete more that could be a very interesting thing. along the line you'll see company by company investigation on this stuff. >> it will bankroll promotions >> absolutely. >> you could almost buy anything, i agree with that part of it. i think you can almost buy anything, with the exception of energy energy today was the red, was the lone laggard, the red zone and there's nothing that seems to have the ability to rally the stock. you watch oil, everybody keeps watching oil
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saudia ar aamco, oil looks okay but the underlying subsector seems like it can't get out of its own way. retail, we had this debate the last time, retail has been so much factored in on the negative side, it can't help but lift into year end. you had options expiration going on today, at the end of the day they came to buy large cap tech and financials tim was talking about tax policy and everybody waiting to price it in, there's no way to price it in truly until you get the nuts and bolts of it guys cannot get in front of this because they know no matter how you slice it, it's a boon for any corporation. >> i agree with that, steve. to a point how can you not price in right now banks, which have a falling regulatory environment for them anyway gdp is going higher on the back of this. it's universally good for banks. >> the tax rates they're going
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to see, whether it's a hybrid account, internationals, s&p, or russell, you didn't know whether you were going to get a blended tax rate or a u.s.-centric tax rate either way you slice it, this has become softer, more hawkish, for companies going forward, more bullish >> as much as bk is hardwired to be a contrarian, i actually have to agree with everybody. it's going to be very hard to get a selloff in this market last week i was worried that the economic news had topped out at least on a sentiments factor it looks like it's getting better so where do you want to be you want to continue to be in the banks, continue to like goldman sachs. they're going to do well in this environment. you probably want to hedge your portfolio, ibt, i know it's not the best product out there, but you have to expect that rates are going to go a little higher in this environment. if rates go higher, that's probably a drag on stocks at some point, not next week. that's your hedge there. also yesterday we talked about buying the iwm on that dip i still think you can do it on
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this momentum. >> on the iwm, i at times have used this as a short proxy one of the things you have to do, and this is something i've done with the iwm, assess what's changed. what's changed here is we really do have tangible tax reform that i think a lot of people, i sat on this desk couple of months ago and said i don't think they're getting anything done by year end when you think about the investment, if you see surveys this week, cfos were basically saying we're now about to reinvest in our business and spend capex. that's normally helpful to small businesses in many cases those are the guys that are going to be doing that work >> so you can still buy it, iwm? >> i think you can i would rather be in financials and discretionary. >> steve, what did you do today? >> i discretiona discretionaries. >> why they will benefit from the tax plan >> burlington stores has the fundamentals that support the
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strength here, will continue to move taxes, no taxes, new taxes, they'll continue to move the fundamentals are spork the story here macy's business is completely still in secular decline in my opinion. the tax bump is going to help them >> what would you say the macy's brand, not to get lost in the weeds here, but it went to the middle 7s, do you think it's worth more than 7 or not >> no. it's very simple >> is it 20, $20 billion -- >> i don't know. i don't know the answer to that. but i will tell you that i think the stock is really at the point where it should be sold. i don't think there's a lot more juice in the upside. >> quickly, what you did you do up today >> bitcoin >> what's that >> oh, you mean in stocks? >> in stocks bitcoin later. >> i put my money where my mouth is, goldman sachs, off the 255 level, that's where you want to be lions gate on the attack, stock soaring from its 52-week
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lows the vice chairman of lions gate, michael burns, joins us after the break. and bitcoin futures from the cme starting this weekend. and a dow stock is about to take off, we'll tell you the name and how high it cou gldo.
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welcome back to "fast money. on the heels of the disney/fox deal, what a week it has been for the stock. john malone doubled down on the stock that could be part of the next wave of consolidation let's get to julia boorstin for that story >> reporter: hello, melissa, that's right, john malone modern doubled his holdings of discovery, 330,000 shares. this is a move he hinted at on cnbc a few weeks ago >> we also look at it and say outside the u.s., they grew almost 10% ebitda this year. i don't see anything negative going on outside the u.s inside the u.s., i think they grew 5% this year. better than any of their peers, right?
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so i look at it, you know, and to me, it looks cheap. >> will you buy more >> well, i would possibly by more >> reporter: discovery is in the midst of its own merger, completing its acquisition of scripps. the shares were down 20% since the sale was announced in july the stock was up on the news of malone the company, which also owns animal plant, food network and own, has been struggling and recently partnered with viacom and others to launch a sports-free bundle called philo. analysts are spect about a potential new wave of media consolidation, especially among the smaller public media companies, such as lions gate and discovery. discovery could be a target because of its international strength, the kind of content that appeals to a different number of passionate audiences
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from diy fans to oprah winfrey's dedicated fan base when i talked to david zaldof, he predicted consolidation and did not rule out selling discovery. >> thank you very much, julia boorstin our next guest is michael burns, vice chairman of lions gate, welcome, good to see you >> melissa, nice to see you again. as i promised, i'm here before the end of the year. >> you're good on your word, michael, as always i want to ask you about why this deal would be good for you james murdoch was talking about scale, and studio, the share of box office, grows to 20% you're at about 9% or so do they have any advantage by having that scale? >> i think the deal is good for us it certainly validates content for sure i think lionsgate thrives in
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chaos. we're in a place where you'll see collegnsolidation out there. from a competitor standpoint, you have one last competitor in the marketplace. so i think those three things are all good for us. >> getting back to the scale, do they have advantage by having 20% share of the box office or does that not matter on the studio side of things? >> i don't think it matters. bob iger, who i am a giant fan of, and kevin mayer, if they still to the plans they've orchestrated over the years, they're about big brands if i were going to guess, and again, i don't have a crystal ball, john malone is the only guy i know with a crystal ball, i would guess they'll stick to big franchises, the movies they can promote in theme parks i think the movies will have
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fewer big, wide releases than the two as separate companies. >> when it comes to how disney can launch an ott offering, how does that impact lionsgate in terms of your content, not just from the movie side but on the tv side as well? >> don't forget, i've beaten it to death, but we're a benevolent arms dealer. it will strengthen hulu, hulu will become a bigger buyer that's why we have 45 shows on 90 different platforms it will be good for us to have strength for hulu. we're providing content for amazon, we have a show we'll be launching soon, you'll see the first episode when they announce the date with youtube red. we have stepup we have a show already on hulu and obviously we've got a couple of big hits on netflix, we're a big supplier to showtime so it goes on and on
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again, another strengthened buyer is good for us >> let's switch gears. at&t/time warner, are you for or against the deal >> there are some issues there we have been -- we have obviously been approached by the regulators and we've given our view we don't want to put them in a position where they've got the incentive to hurt places like -- or other channels like starz when they fold in hbo in an ownership position so we're more than an interested party. >> so you're against it? >> against -- >> a deal going through. >> i guess what i would say is what's most important to us is to make sure that we, if approved, are treated fairly if we're not going to be treated fairly, then of course we would be against it. >> will you be part of the case that the justice department is
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putting together >> you know, it's funny, i've been given a lot of warnings about not talking about whether we're a potential witness and all of that. so i can't say right now >> okay. michael, we'll have to leave it there. always great to speak with you, have a great new year if we don't speak with you >> merry christmas to everybody. if you haven't gotten to see "wonder," go see it. >> i'll try, michael, thanks a lot. michael burns, vice chairman of lionsgate. >> michael is a big fan of the show, glad he kept his promise he's underscored a couple of things content is now maybe king again. the starz/hulu deal i think gives these guys -- he said he was a benevolent arms dealer these are products that people can use on their tv shows. it's massively outperformed the sector we're moments away from the release of the all-important tax bill we'll head down to d.c. for the very latest and how to trade it. i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide meantime here's what else is
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welcome back to "fast money. a news alert on procter & gamble, let's get to bertha coombs >> reporter: that shareholder vote from last october has finally been certified, melissa, and p&g says that it will award a seat to nelson peltz they say that under the certified count, the results were very close, particularly between sedillo and peltz, who received almost 50% of shares voted. as a result, they say they are going to give mr. peltz a board seat starting next march 1st, 2018 they've had numerous discussions with him regarding that.
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they've agreed not to take on excessive leverage or substantial reduce r&d spending or advocate for a breakup of the company. that note coming from david taylor, the board chair. back to you. >> thank you very much, bertha coombs so a certified victory for nelson peltz at this point, grasso >> as you said, the operative word is certified victory. it's up 9% to date, etf is up 11%. there's still room to climb higher and probably for the whole entire staples space td ameritrade, one of the largest online brokers, announcing in the last hour that they will listed cboe listed bitcoin futures starting monday as cme is gearing up to offer its own bitcoin futures on sunday how will the cme's product differ from the cboe offering? bk is at the plasma. >> what's going to be the
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difference between these cme trades more futures products i would expect heavier volume on this secondly, bigger contract size it's five bitcoin versus one bitcoin. this will likely be more of an institutional product at this point. you're going to have bigger ticket sizes in there. and finally, i would expect an increased volatility remember last weekend, everybody thought that bitcoin was going to sell off because the futures were coming and global macro funds were going to sell it short? exact opposite happened. it ripped up 20% i would expect underlying volatility in the spot market this weekend so now, you want to trade this let's go to the tape and let's go to the -- we will go to the tape and we're going to look at how we're going to trade the futures, okay? so last week, i talked about the one contract size. here's bitcoin here. you've seen that we have this rip up here. we're kind of in the range right now, right so $17.55. you want to buy the futures
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about 17, 600, let's say it's sunday night, you always want to have a stop when you're dealing with futures we'll put our stop at 17,300 that's 200 points. by contracts, $1,000 my target is still up above 2100 let's call it 2160 for easy math that's 4,000 points times 5, that's 20,000. if you want to trade one contract, you can make 20,000 on the upside, lose 1,000 on the downside remember, that's a pretty tight stop there you might get stopped out quickly. this is going to be volatile there's our profits and losses you make some nights profits but always have your stop in >> this is the kind of trade where you can't put this in and walk away from your computer and that's that. >> this is the deep end of the pool i have to make it clear. you need to make sure you have a stop in futures because they can get away from you. you're using leverage. it's a five-bitcoin contract this is the deep end of the
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pool >> we're worried about the cboe's launch, this is going to be a much heavy volume because the cme is a bigger player should we be more worried on monday about what happens? >> look, i think one player to the mix is only a good thing you're actually going to start to see a little more institutional volume i don't think you're going to see necessarily anything that dramatic than what we've seen. but it's interesting how every time you get a new essentially vehicle or conduit or proxy play for bitcoin, you get a nice bounce in it, which to me means you want to be playing for the next one of those, not for bitcoin. time for the final trade tim? >> we talk about industrial names, airlines have a run go latin america, copa airlines. >> match is a stock i would own for the long haul. >> i talked about financials, rates going up, they'll do well. silicon valley bank, a little smaller bank, one we don't always talk about. not only do you get the bank trade, you also get some of the innovation going on in silicon
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valley >> do you remember when you said avis budget was a double $35. i said it's going to 70 bucks. trading at $44 now, getting there, chug-a-choo-choo. st catch us back on monday, 5:00 eaern. we're expecting the final details of the tax bill in a few minutes. "options action" will be all over it. just like some people like wet grocery bags. getting a bad haircut. overcrowded trains. turnstiles that don't turn. and spilling coffee on themselves. but for everyone else, there's directv. for #1 rated customer satisfaction over cable, switch to directv. and for a limited time get a $100 reward card. call 1-800-directv you myour joints...thing for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you...
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