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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 21, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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strength, where the demand is, in their various markets beyond that, it's a similar story. >> i'm a little surprised the shares are taking the north america news in stride >> north american news margins are okay they're clearly executing all right. just on the actual top line for north america, not quite there >> mike, thank you that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," it's crypto stock mania. it seems like any company that mentions the word "blockchain" heads for the moon and the bitcoin bug is fired up tonight as it sinks for the second day in a row. shares of nike are volatile in the after hours session the conference call is under way
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as we speak. first, we start off with breaking news on alphabet. the parent company of google let's get to josh lipton for all the details. >> reporter: melissa, big breaking news here on alphabet which is just now announcing that as of its next regular board meeting, eric schmidt will be transitioning he'll be stepping down from his position as alphabet's executive chairman, instead becoming what is described here as a technical adviser to the company importantly, he will continue to serve on the board schmidt saying here in a statement, melissa, "in recent years i've been spending a lot of time my time on science and technology issues and philanthropy and i plan to expand that work." of course back in 2001, google's founders brought in schmidt to help scale the business, a company that now does more than $75 billion a year in annual revenue. schmidt himself worth an
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estimated $14 billion. i'm told this transition has been talked about for about a year it will be interesting to see who now steps into schmidt's role as executive chairman of course there are a number of potential candidates you would think one could be john hennessey who has been a member of alphabet's board since 2004 again, the news here, eric schmidt stepping down as alphabet's executive chairman, instead now going to serve as a technical adviser to the company, melissa, back to you. >> josh, thanks, josh lipton in san francisco. what does this mean for alphabet, car en >> i don't think a lot when you think about it, sergey brin and larry page are 44 now >> they're adults. >> they're grownups, right >> they're over the hill >> they've had some management shifts when they split into alphabet, and you had ruth po out there who was an excellent transition i don't think this will have a lasting effect >> i think we've already seen some transitions near the top there already. i think they've been very well
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denied obviously also when you brought ruth por in, this was seen as a major positive a place that at times in the past has been seen as less transparent has been getting more transparent i think if anything, google has a chance to increase the multiple based on what's potentially good news here >> it's a knee-jerk reaction, when you see a headline, you could see something sell off tomorrow you could see a traction to the selloff. i would be a buyer on that dip i think it is a nonevent, to everything that tim and karen just said. i think it's really plug and play at this point i'm not sure how much day to day he has right now anyway. so i would be a buyer on the dip. >> the much bigger issue is what are they going to do with their cash, right? that has the ability to move the stock much more. >> we've been waiting for a long time >> ruth por started in '10, '11-ish. >> it's 2 1/2 years ago. >> that being said, if she
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stepped down, that's a much bigger story than this maybe there will be a sell i still think the valuation in the stock is reasonable. i think it goes higher a familiar theme in the markets, euphoria. the dow surging as tax cuts are in the books companies start sharing the wealth, dishing out bonuses, wage increases to employees, which makes it a great time to be living in america consumer stocks tied to american spending, while already soaring in the past month, names like macy's, nordstrom, restaurant stocks, are all surging. as the tax cuts sink in, could you put any on the consumer in 2018 makes sense, guy >> if people feel good about things, business optimism is through the roof, confidence is through the roof >> rocky 2, 3, or 4 is that? >> i think it was 3.
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it's a lousy song. >> it's rocky 4. >> you don't think i knew that anyway >> and the picture was ruth porat. >> i apologize to everybody at home >> anyway. consumer stocks are doing good, they're spending money >> whether they should be spending or not spending doesn't matter they will spend money. what does it mean? we've talked about the retailers for a while. tim has been on macy's the retail story to me, we're smack in the middle. nordstrom's earnings has been basically straight up. macy's has had a great run target has been a great story since july 13th. a lot of these retailers still work whether or not the consumer is euphoric, living in america, living in scandinavia. >> wherever they're spending their money. should we believe the consumer will feel something for this sector to benefit?
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>> i think this whole sector was thrown out, and the ones that have performed well will continue to outperform the sector was definitely slammed, hit, every type of derogatory comment you could make darden restaurants as far as the size of the market cap they have, they're an "a" rated operator i continue to buy this one specifically >> think about what the retailers had to deal with in the previous nine to 12 months certainly the border adjustment tax was a big deal for a lot of these guys as we've gotten into the downgrades in the sector, the amazon death and destruction, you got to a place where perceptions in the sector were so low, any retail analysts you read, anyone doing staples or even consumer discretionary. we have a quarter of pretty solid results under our belt steve mentioned this, the comps are terrible for these guys, meaning it's great for these guys most importantly, as a group, they had effective tax rates of 35 to 39%.
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and any analyst that's doing their stuff is upgrading these guys probably 20% on eps, i think you stay with that and the momentum shift. >> that's what he had when he came to macy's, kohl's, nordstrom's. the benefit was somewhere around 20% or so, so there's a double benefit on the tax side in terms of the rate and the tax side in terms of the consumer with more money in their pockets, potentially. >> yes the sector has been crushed, as we said. i'm curious to see whether people spend this money all at once and we have a very good first quarter or end of the christmas season, or do they end up saving it i know you're a saver. >> always. >> so i think we will see a lot more of these, maybe they're not $1,000 checks. >> isn't that okay either way, she still feels better about what she has in the bank, she'll make a larger purchase going forward even if she is a saver how about under armour, a 38%
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effective tax rate and it's demolished, down 45%, take a look at that >> some people get $1,000 check bonuses. some people start seeing it in their payroll come february. some people see it over the course of the year in terms of their wage increases >> i think from a consumption perspective, this entire tax bill on some level is very front loaded i think what we're getting right now is really a consumption pull if i'm the federal reserve right now, i am nervous in my 2% pce boots. i think we've just run a match on an economy that was already at 3%, where rates were already starting to make a move, where ultimately you've had business confidence levels, we're at a cycle low. i could say this every night because i don't change my tune i think unemployment is now an issue. i don't think there are a lot of manufacturing jobs that can be filled right now i think we are maxed out i think the fed is going to be moving faster than slow. >> totally agree about the match.
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banks will seeinterest rates higher i think it's going to happen i think -- i'm sort of getting worried about this rally, even though -- i mean, the psychology of it is great, right? everybody is really pumped up about it today the market was up a lot, vix hardly moved >> that's an extra layer, everyone now with the bonuses. this is an intended consequence. >> the psychology changes. >> last night i think was a shocker when you start to see all these companies start ripping through, because all of us thought we had sort of a handle on it i don't know if we knew how quick these bonuses and the capex was going to come in i thought it was going to be another quarter. >> a lot of economists were modeling the impact on gdp, they're not factoring in the secondary and tertiary effects of capex when at&t spends extra in capex, they're not factoring in the jobs associated with that capex. >> keep going with that.
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>> right the fear of the risk of higher rates. >> and the knee-jerk reaction. >> the risk of higher rates, they need to be higher on the back end, not the front end, that's the real problem. although you've seen them moving -- >> seen that in the past few years -- days, excuse me >> it's not commensurate in my opinion with what it should be doing. tlt was up today, whether that means anything or not, i don't know >> i think this is what you're talking about, we've been mentioning this because these moves have been extraordinary. 31% in 12 sessions u.s. steel, 32% in roughly 25 sessions what you're seeing is an expectation that clearly companies now who have been saying this forever, so give ceos credit, if they're actually going to follow through on what they were threatening to do, if we ever saw a change in policy, we've gotten it. these guys are fired up you. i'll say this again, this was a corporate tax, this was a tax cut for corporate america. when they start cutting checks like it's monopoly money for employees, you know it's been
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very good for corporate america. and i think in that regard you actually will see stimulative effects that will be a concern for rates. >> will the market euphoria continue into next year? our next guest boosted his 2018 price target today let's welcome chris harvey, head of strategy at wells fargo securities boosted it to what, chris? >> $28.64. >> that's not that bullish what's holding you back? >> if we can't get -- i hear everybody, everyone is they enthusiastic we can't get that enthusiastic there's so much good news. these are all the things we know about. taxes, we know about that. c car, we know about that. deregulation what's the next trick? things are priced pretty expensively. i hear the secondary and tertiary effect. i'm just not seeing it >> if everything is priced, why is it whenever a company says, oh, the eps impact on tax, a buck to a buck 25, and delta rose on it, fedex rose on it,
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obviously it wasn't priced in. >> yes so when i think about taxes, i think long term and short term in the short term, a lot of these companies just won the lottery, now they're sitting on a windfall, that's fantastic the big question is what are they going to do with the money? who is the good allocators of value? that's what we're looking at and that's what's going to cause these stocks to take another -- >> who are the value creators in your view? >> the companies that have better roics, better runs on capital. if you look at the cable companies, some of the media companies, even some companies, the food asxand beverage compans that had been left for dead, though know how to create value. that's where we're finding the opportunity. >> when you have that model, you said 2860? >> 2863. >> to put a fine point on it what are you assuming for interest rates for the year?
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>> we're assuming a flat interest rate but we put a little fudge factor in there there's a hundred basis points where it can swing at the end of the day, what we've seen over the years is the curve flattens we can argue about whether the rates are going higher one of the issues that's keeping me back is every time we have a tightening cycle, the curving flattens eps peaks, ism peaks what you see is multiples compress there's a lot of good news out there. but in the second half i think next year, you're going to have m&a, it's going to be a very good market but in the second half it's about deceleration there's more accommodation, we'll get away from some of the taxes and then you're going to have volatility start to normalize, right and in that kind of environment you should have lower multiples. >> in tells me of the sectors that you like who are good creators of value out there, is it historical return on capital rates? i don't think of electric
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utilities as a great creator of value in the markets that's the truth >> in that regard, what we're looking at, we're looking at media. we're looking at cable we're looking at some of the food and beverage. i sit right next to marcy riverker, our media cable analyst, she's looking at the comcasts of the world, the disneys. those are high quality companies, companies that know how to create value. we look at disney, she says there's still good opportunity out there but it's very selective. >> chris, you look back at this, and the technology space has blown away whether it's year to date, going back six months, going back five years. it's blown away everything out there. so to melissa's point, when you have utilities up there, but the technology space has blown away everything, why are you afraid of technology? is it just valuations? >> we're neutral on technology we want to move away from higher
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activity we're looking for the contrarian approach we think you want to rotate. what we'll see in technology, you'll see some business spending everybody thinks there's this massive rotation i don't see that i see a much more selective environment. some of these tech companies will do very well. >> chris, good to see you, happy new year chris harvey guy, do you like those sectors, do you think they're creators of value? >> we talk about interest rates. this is interesting. i'm sort of ambivalent about it, but i'll say this. if you're a bond bear, you're getting some wind to your back, because the xlu has absolutely rolled over. if you look at the move in xlu over the last week and a half, swung from 57 to 52. that's a good sign if you think rates are going higher 51, you have to draw a line in the sand next year if it holds there, i think there's a real opportunity for, again, those ten-year yields to go right back to 2 1/4
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>> karen was mentioning she thinks things feel a little too good from a trader's perspective, i sold 25% of my u.s. steel position it's had such an extraordinary run. even sold off some altria, which was more sympathetic to the utilities move, also revalued after this whole fda scare you face some stuff in emerging markets, i sold some turkey butts in russia, russia rallies. >> karen >> i'm eyeing more puts, because they're more expensive i'm long google, long facebook i'm long the big three banks, those are big positions. i want to stay with them but i am nervous, and you don't think if rates move, it's good for the banks. coming up, tim seymour will break down how you can harvest tax gains until the end of the year and how to sell the big winners. is the sec about to crack down on crypto stock scams
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money. check out the xle, for emergency, surging and rebounding after being one of the worst performing sectors all year one of the biggest winners, hess, schlumberger, all jumping. is this the start of a breakout? >> you have breakouts, you've now had a breakout in the oih, names like halliburton a couple of days ago. you've got probably 53, 54 bucks in halliburton, i believe. think about what happened in late year where anadarko started giving money back to investors there was a change in religion in the emp space you add in this tax cut especially for the refiners which are heavily taxed, i would go into e&p. some of these charts, especially
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in oil services, look very interesting. >> you have not liked energy >> i have not. and for the last two days you start to see them outperform in the energy world so you have rotation, to tim's point. you have the tax policy. and then you have infrastructure, which is only going to be a tailwind for -- >> are you now a believer in energy as >> in services i'm still a little skeptical because it's taken so long to really take hold schlumberger, halliburton, i would rather go there, services versus e&p >> shoutout to rich ross >> i was going to say. rich ross, when there was more than nine people on the desk last night exxon is still in a bear market. it's down trend. but back in august, we said the stock keeps holding, 76, 76, 76, and it's been off to the races ever since i still think exxon is in a bear market it could go up to 89 exxon still goes higher from
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here >> how is golar doing? >> it's been well, tim has been all over energy for the whole ride i, like a lot other people, underweight energy, golar is the biggest energy bet by a lot. i'm feeling underweight energy, i guess a lot of other people are as well. it bodes well. >> because we've had stability in the oil price, we've had some sense that the capex has stabilized xle, this didn't just happen, it's up 17% since august >> i know you don't want to go long here, but the five-year is only up 2% it's a big beta play, i'm pushing back on a long term performance. it's definitely got a big beta play but xle has not performed for five years i'm not saying -- i'm really not trying to be combative, i'm not saying it can't perform now. i'm saying put it in perspective, it hasn't performed
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in five years. this is not a knock on you >> he's just saying he hasn't been in it for five years, he doesn't care about thefive-yea performance. >> i'm just saying it hasn't performed. >> anyway. moving on. shares of nike volatile in the after hours session, we'll bring you the latest details of the conference call now under way. i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide here's what else is coming up on fast >> this organic market looks pretty close to you. >> if your phone appears to be moving slower, that's because it is that may not be a bad thing for the stock. we'll explain. plus -- >> you're on a cold streak >> there's simple fix for that put bitcoin in yr oucompany's name it's a growing scam on wall street we're naming names, right after this break the moment a fish is t from the water, it's a race against time. and keeping it in the right conditions is the best way to get that fish to your plate safely.
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welcome back to "fast money. crypto mania rages on. and a growing number of microcap companies have soared by taking advantage of retail investors. bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange to break down the moves in some of those names bob? >> reporter: it's like 2000 all over again the bitcoin craze seems to be reaching some kind of new phase. take a company and announce they're doing something bitcoin-related and hope it turns into gold. you've got for example a company called key capital corporation this is a financial services company listed on the pink sheets, announced it had started a fin tech division with a specific focus on pursuing blockchain and cryptocurrency opportunities. it goes from 20 cents to over $3 you have digital power corporation, engaged in power systems, announcing it has launched a new business division dedicate to go the mining of cryptocurrencies that goes from 60 cents to over $4
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another financial technology company, longfin, went from $5 to over 140, now back to 40 and change after saying it was acquiring a company which says it's a microlending company based on blockchain. long island iced tea company, a beverage company, announced today it's changing its name from long island iced tea corporation to long blockchain corporation and that it would focus on the exploration of and investment in opportunities that leverage the benefits of blockchain technology. a beverage company the stock is up 180% or so bear in mind we're not talking about companies that have made major medical break throuthrougs we're not talking about curing cancer we're talking about tiny companies that announce they have some bitcoin connection and the stock starts moving. you get the point here buyer beware back to you, melissa >> thank you, bob pisani the reaction to long island iced tea, it actually does manufacture and distribute iced tea.
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and it's based on long island. it's a very straightforward business here. now all of a sudden it's long blockchain and it's the best thing since sliced bread >> there are other things headquartered. >> lake success. >> make your own inferences. >> that looked like an april fool's video, the long island iced tea >> i thought it was a joke, when they said long island iced tea >> to add to the joke, long island iced tea is not just iced tea from long island that's a drink with every liquor in the world in it to get you hammered and plunge you off a cliff. you do the math. >> obviously investors can't believe in a name here >> it's not just the investors it's the algorithms that write anything with blockchain in it it's not as if 90% of the people are sitting like like zombies reading blockchain it's the computers analyzing anything with blockchain in it
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and they buy it up the number of companies looking to cash in on cryptocurrencies is up the sec halted trading in shares of one company on monday here to weigh in is a man who himself was formerly the chair of the sec, harvey pitt, a pleasure to have you with us >> great to be with you all. >> we were just talking about one example that came up, long island iced tea which is now long blockchain, and subsequently soared. should the sec step in on something like this or is this simply buyer beware? >> the buyer beware theory was thrown out in the 1930s when the federal securities laws were adopted. so there will need to be some protection the sec has already warned companies and the public with respect to this. earlier this week, they stopped trading, in -- i think the
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company was called munchy, which was trying to go public with a new currency and they have brought an enforcement action already so i think that there is activity on the horizon, and also fsoc has said regulators have to be wary of new developments i think we're basically in line for some serious regulatory responses to all of this and that will be forthcoming after the first of the year. >> i want to ask you about what went on a cryptocurrency exchange in recent days, coinbase in case you didn't know, they announced they're going to add another cryptocurrency to their platform, bitcoin cash that cryptocurrency soared in advance of the actual addition of it to the platform. the sec is investigating whether there's insider trading, someone
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who may have capitalized it, harvey can we sacall that insider trading? who would the insiders be for a cryptocurrency doesn't insider trading usually refer to material non-public information as it concerns stocks or their securities >> well, you're right about what insider trading relates to but many of these cryptocurrency offerings are the offerings of securities and they fit within the securities laws. and that was the point the sec has made rather forcefully but there absolutely can be insider trading, when people have advanced knowledge of the offering of these interests, and take advantage of the offering long before it occurs. i think there's enough authority for the sec to do what it needs to do when it gets the facts that support an action >> so far, coinbase has said it's going to launch its own
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investigation into this. could the sec step in? we haven't heard from the sec on specific issues so far does that mean it's off the table? >> no, i think the sec tries to preserve the confidentiality of its investigations until there's a real need for publicity and a conclusion that wrongdoing has occurred the problem we're seeing here is that people are investing in things that they don't understand and they also are making investment judgments not based on the merits of what's being offered but rather because everyone else is investing in it, and the price seems to be going up that's a real problem, because there's a lack of education and knowledge on the part of many of the people who are actually doing the investing. >> should be an interesting next year or so in the enforcement world. harvey, thanks so much for joining us, we appreciate your insights harvey pitt, the former chairman of the sec
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would it be a good thing or a bad thing if the sec stepped in and said we're going to investigate bitcoin after what happened with bitcoin cash >> we even heard this last night from roger ver, there's a belief in the crypto community that nothing bad has happened on some level, and -- >> it's not a crime. >> it's not a crime. and i think from a regulatory perspective, especially protecting the individual investor out there, a shot across the bow is not a bad thing. it needs to be done in a rational and well-targeted way but if a company is listing a name or changing their business and it's truly fraud and misrepresentation, i mean, there's a lot the sec can do there and i think they should go after them >> steve said something interesting, at the end of the day it is people that are buying this, because it's our money, collective money but the machines are in fact in charge of this that's what's driving this thing. that's a much bigger problem potentially than even what we're
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talking about here if it's just machines moving -- >> because you see "blockchain" being added. >> that to me is a bigger concern, people foolishly gambling on things they shouldn't. >> what difference does it make, though, people foolishly -- >> i would think it's worse if individuals are foolishly gambling than machines >> if machines are left to their own devices, to me that's worse. >> foolishly gambling, you know, that happens in every arena in the world. >> and it's in the eye of the beholder >> fraud should not be happening. foolish gambling will go on until the end of time. you can't protect people from themselves if they're going to gamble you need to protect them from fraud. ahead, shares of nike volatile in the after hours session. we'll tell you what it is that has traders buying the stock plus traders are piling into one hot tech stock that's up more than 100% this year we'll give you the name anted ll what has them so bullish
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welcome back to "fast money. apple in the spotlight today after the tech giant admitted to slowing down the performance in its older iphone models which could be forcing some consumers to upgrade
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what we suspected all along, josh, you're in san francisco with the details tell us. >> reporter: melissa, apple says the central issue here has to do with battery technology, right that lithium ion batteries do decline over time. that means as they get older, these batteries will have a tougher time handling a phone's power demands and they can shutdown unexpectedly at that point. obviously that's not good news apple came up with a solution, it added a feature to ios last year, so iphones with older batteries are throttled at specific times to make sure they don't get overwhelmed and shut down apple saying in a statement, "our goal is to deliver the best experience for customers which includes overall performance and prolonging the life of their devices. in other words, whatapple is saying is, it's not trying t force you to buy new phones by crippling old ones, on the contrary apple is saying it's actually trying to make them last longer. technology analysts did argue today that apple's actions are defensible specifically that the company is saddled with this
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very real technical challenge, battery performance does degrade over time. but the man who highlighted this issue, john poole, was on cnbc this morning saying that apple in his opinion should have been more transparent with the solution it came up with >> i think if apple had been very clear in the messaging, either by providing alerts on the phone or something like that, they could have sort of avoided a lot of this sort of planned obsolescence theories that like to bounce around every time a new iphone or ios version comes out. >> reporter: there is a potential fix, a battery replacement from apple will run you 79 bucks, or free under apple care >> thank you, josh lipton in san francisco. is apple doing the right thing here or could this be the makings of an iphone-gate kind of situation >> i don't think it's an iphone -- it's something we've suspected. you've said it yourself, we have known it all along >> it starts to die when there's a new one out.
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>> a week later, my phone doesn't work anymore, i'm due for a new phone anyway, we all play the game. they're clearly getting ahead of something, i don't know if some story was going to break that required them to come out with this >> it makes you wonder, how did this come out, was it apple unilaterally saying, by the way, we're doing this great thing for you, we knew it all along but today we feel like telling you about it it does make you wonder. i think they've already got you, as guy said. >> i think apple, if there was such thing as an apple-gate, i would question all of humanity what i'm saying is, the loyalty to apple, to the ecosystem, now into the services revenue, is why you can continue to buy apple. the most brand loyalty of any company out there. and if people assume they're there to help them, not hurt them, good for them for the perception, i think it's largely true >> that response was written by a team of lawyers. and i think they have tremendous wiggle room with that response
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that you can play it from both sides. so i think it's a neutral for the stock. once again, we all knew this was going on i don't think it really hits the stock. i think it was prevalent, we all understood it. sticking with tech, one trader is betting on more games ahead for one of apple's big chip suppliers mike khouw is in austin to break it down. >> reporter: micron technologies has been one of the busiest single stock options we've seen over the last couple of weeks. bullish bets were outnumbers bearish ones by two to one a large sail of april 45 puts, 10,000 of those for an average price of $4.35, a bullish bet that remain above that $45 strike price by at least the $4.35 that they collected, nearly 10% of the stock price. incidentally, this is an interesting trade. when you have options premiums this elevated, you want to sell those premiums and take advantage of it. >> absolutely. guy, who do you think of micron?
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>> on december 1st, steve was sitting to my right, we said, you know what, it's round trip, the move from earnings, it went from 38 to 50, back to 38, risk/reward sets up well that's what happened, the stock was obviously down today, but in terms of risk/reward right now, the quarter suggests their pricing is still intact, margins still strong you can count on micron right here >> for more "options action" -- mike, thank you, by the way -- check out the full show tomorrow, 5:30 eastern time. ahead, the nike conference call is under way. we'll tell what you the ceo said about the quarter, that's next want to get the most out of your tax cuts? who doesn't? tim seymour will break down how to manage your portfolio in a tax-efficient way. [vo] when it comes to investing,
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when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. we've gone an earnings alert on nike. eric chemi is in the newsroom. >> reporter: q&a just began just about a minute ago north america and asia were worse than estimates, that's a big takeaway the company wanted to talk about how they're relying more on their direct to consumers business, not retailers in general. here's what ceo mark parker had
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to say about that a few minutes ago. >> while the athletic marketplace continues to shift, we're very confident in the factors of our business that we control. through our consumer direct offense, we're identifying which consumer opportunities have the most upside, and we're overindexing in those areas to fuel growth. >> notice how he talked about the factors they can control because a lot of the factors they can't control have not been working well for them. what they're focused on is connected wearables, things like the nike app, to give them more information about their customers so they can figure out individually what each person wants. the company talked about extending their pilot that sells directly, nike goods directly from nike on amazon. they also mentioned they'll launch a pilot with stitchfix in women's wear next year if you're trying to buy some jordan shoes, they'll work harder to keep them coveted and special, they could be harder to find, to drive demand, which has
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been hurting them in the north american marketplace >> eric, thank you, eric chemi in the newsroom. nike shares down about a percent right now. since the analyst meeting, nike shares had a pretty good boost, they're optimistic about the new stuff that was coming out, the turn they were seeing in the business do you rethink that? >> no. not at all i think they are very much in charge of what they can control. and i do think that 28% move also tells you where you got within this sector people were painting nike with a brush that they were now a retailer and they were treating them like they were foot locker. it was absurd. in october nike had 51 bucks and the sentiment couldn't have been worse. now people like the stock. this is how the street works chris was on earlier talking about companies that create value. the question is, at 24 times, is this company that's growing at roughly 13, 14 times worth, 24 times when it was growing at 24 times, which it was three or four years ago >> you mentioned under armour.
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>> everything that tim says could be 100% accurate but when you look at the rotation -- everything tim says is 100% accurate having said that, you can see the shift right now happening. you have under armour which is down 45% year to date. nike is up 27% year to date. nike is overbought on rsi. you could see funds come into -- i would rather be a buyer of under armour >> one thing i want to point out, nike outperformed adidas by 44%. this is how people trade them, they trade them as pairs that pair may be overdone the other way. two months ago there were people on this desk saying adidas was the best company in the world and it's gone the other way. >> i think -- i mean, nike had a couple of things to say, none of which were good for foot locker. north america being soft is one. the direct to customer is another. it does make you wonder, if north america is soft for nike, is it also soft for under armour
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as well. i don't know >> the tax rate issue. i'm going with an effective tax rate 38% going down to 21 >> guy >> i said nike was going to push up to 68 1/2, 69, from its all-time high in 2015. it didn't get that close tim mentions valuation i think this quarter forces people to look at valuation. earnings were down 9% year over year that is without question true. so that's not necessarily a good thing on the back of the run the stock has had. so i'm going to have to reevaluate and see how it trades tomorrow maybe that 68 1/2 was too optimistic ahead, tax cuts are coming how should you manage your portfolio? our very own tim seymour will our very own tim seymour will breadok wn the tax cut playbook. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him?
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td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.
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wifiso if you can't live without it...t it. why aren't you using this guy? it makes your wifi awesomely fast. no... still nope. now we're talking! it gets you wifi here, here, and here. it even lets you take a time out. no! no! yes! yes, indeed. amazing speed, coverage and control. all with an xfi gateway. find your awesome, and change the way you wifi. welcome back to "fast money. america is getting a tax cut how do you decide what to sell or not to sell for tax purposes in your portfolio? tim is at the plasma for the more you know. >> thank you, lovely music here are three points in my tax
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playbook it's independent of this big tax bill we've had, but as a trader, fundamentals over taxes. however you're valuing a company, whether it's a dcf or target pricing relative to multiples, relatively to a company's history, if you think fundamentally this is a great company i want to own and the price is nowhere near where it's going, i'm not trading on a tax basis even if it's year end and i've had tax gains fundamentals to me always trump tax efficiency i haven't run strategies, there are people that do that. second, short term versus long term investors what type are you? what part of your portfolio does this stock belong in a lot of people are trading positions very actively that frankly they want short term capital gains because they want gains, they're not interested in being tax efficient.
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you may have long term positions where you may be sitting right here on the edge of a holding period which could give you a long term capital gain and that's something that at least is worth thinking about in the context of what you're trading. finally, as we think about what has kind of happened maybe in a broader sense in this tax bill, who benefits, who loses. but bring it back to traditional fund management. it's tax harvesting. that's when you're generating losses to offset gains and basically think about a chase where you've got, you know, a company that really maybe this year it's a better time to take the losses. there are a lot of people who think it might be next year. let's go to a chart here i want to talk about citi group not only because of the company but because of the sector they're in we spend a lot of time on this show talking about it. you've had a big move but only a little bit of a move on a revaluation. i think you stay long on
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citibank i think regulations get better on them and gdp goes higher. >> should we invite tim over come on, tim we're just joking. >> can i just say, the level of effort he put in his checkmarks is off the charts. >> well-checked. >> i was trying to add a little more interactivity to the plasma >> karen, how do you approach it you do do this in your own portfolio. >> yes, quite a bit. tim's first point is really the most important why do you want to be in it? it's got to be -- that has to override any tax shift but when you have a big tax shift like this, i do try to sell things that are losers. if i want to buy them back, you can wait 31 days, you do get the tax loss, you can buy them back and start over i'm very mindful of how old my positions are. i want to wait for them to become long term, it's such a
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benefit. we talk about trading -- >> what is the threshold, just about? is it a matter of years? >> 365 days. >> a year, it becomes a long term holding >> 366, i believe, it becomes a long term holding, you're in a much better tax position one thing you don't want to do is age your losers that's a bad thing to do you want the bigger loss having a bigger tax shield. >> karen, it seems to me you're also contradicting yourself with that whole thing about, if you want to save something, go a little bit longer and get that long term gain and buy it back in 31 days or in this case harvest it >> yes i don't want to get too wonky. you can sell long calls against it that don't do anything to your holding period. >> i like it >> what would you think about selling? >> the fact that she says age your losers -- [ laughter ] >> i love the laugh track. >> on that note,e' gngo nal trades ♪
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the moment a fish is pulled out from the water, it's a race against time. and keeping it in the right conditions is the best way to get that fish to your plate safely. bacteria can multiply to high enough levels that even cooking it will not destroy all of them. it's definitely the most important thing in my business.
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how fresh is the fish? where it comes from? how it gets here. the more i know, the better. sometimes the product arrives and the cold chain has been interrupted, and we need to be able to identify where in the cold chain that occurred. we took our world class network and we developed devices to track environmental conditions. this device allows people to understand what's happening not only with the location of that asset, but also if it's too hot, if it's too cold, if it's been dropped... it's completely unique. we ship fish, beef, poultry, vaccines, insulin. this is about monitoring and protecting everything we ship. i catch all this amazing, beautiful fish and then once it's out of my hands, i have no control over what happens to it. if you have a sensor that can keep track of your product, it keeps everybody kind of honest that way.
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it's really all about the network. you are looking at trillions of transactions a year. not too many companies in the world can even scale to that type of volume. who knew a tiny sensor could help keep the food chain safe? food has to be fresh. it's that simple. time for the final trade tim seymour. >> i think nike's numbers are not something you should be trading on today great long term company. >> the rest of the world will be doing well eem, long right here >> olin corp., oln >> rangers, we're going to
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throttle them. >> that's how you started the show we'll end the show with micron, mu >> all right i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job isn't just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. do you know the defining feature of this market it's that we don't have enough shares

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