thanks for watching, everybody "fast money" begins right now. >> now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. gene, you don't need that red phone right now, put it down tonight on fast," bitcoin is bouncing back, trading just below 16 k as we speak if you think you missed a rally, think again. ari paul, the man who sees bitcoin hitting 50,000, yes, 50,000, will be here to tell us how soon it could happen and why he's so bullish. plus retail stocks surging after holiday spending nhit new record high. first we start with apple's lump of coal for investors the stock sinking more than 2% on reports that the tech giant could cut its sales forecast for the new iphone x and spark a chip massacre, names like

micron, qualcomm, all following. these have been some of the hottest trades of the year is this the beginning of a bigger pullback or should you buy this dip dan? >> it's a tough one. obviously we had micron's earnings a week and a half ago they beat and got higher they were talking about nand pricing and dram this is a headwind for apple's margins, they're a big customer of apple for me, you have to think about this apple announcement, we see this every quarter whether it's hush hush, whisper whisper, they're not going to have the builds they did on this high end phone that's going to possibly affect their asps. last quarter expectations were not particularly high because people knew the iphone x would be pushed out later into the calendar q4 and all of a sudden they gave this massive guide for units in this quarter, 85 million. i think at the end of the day you have a stock trading at 170, i think back then it was 160

if they were to come in line and guide, you know, down a little bit, i don't think it's the end of the world i don't think it changes the story a whole heck of a lot. >> you've covered apple for a very long time as an analyst the taiwan economic daily, they report this, and they don't have any specific sources, and yet people in the market really took this very seriously. why? >> i'm actually surprised, given the context of this. so every year, there's some noise. but there's a ritual around going into an iphone cycle you'll hear about these massive builds i want to give a quick context to how those builds and then they get cut they have those big builds because they want to keep their suppliers at task and make sure they produce a ton of inventory, then they dial that back this is normal operating, i'm surprised it's getting the

traction it has. these 30 million units they're expecting for the iphone x for the march quarter, if apple does that, that will be double the number of iphone x's that the market is expecting. there is a positive side to asps in the news. >> it's great having you on the desk the question you have to ask is, there's going to be catch-up quarters in q2 and q3, essentially probably the march quarter, at least the june quarter, where we wouldn't have seen that in other refresh cycles i think you can impute this to taiwan semi and other chip makers too, they're getting hit on this news is this ultimately a positive for apple, the fact that there was slowness out of the gate and now it's more of a smooth run? >> it's a normal operating procedure. it probably is a positive. what's most important is that they still can't keep these in supply just now, as of yesterday, 97%

of the stores in the u.s. have iphone x that's basically tripled over the past few weeks if there was a demand issue, then we wouldn't have a supply issue. >> you would know if there's a demand issue this quarter is going to be really important to see -- you know, listen, the fact that they freed up supply as soon as they did i think is really surprising to me, if we get a sense for the mix, because the plus was going to be a big seller, we knew that at the end of the day they raised prices on all these phones this was a massive uptick, either 1,000 or 1,150. it should be great for asps if they hit the 30 million number >> a funny thing happened on the way to the forum vis-à-vis the parthenon. the pullback on apple is a gift. very little spillover into tech more broadly, triple q's down 50 basis point, the biggest stock down 2.7%.

very little spillover into the semi apple-centric chip stocks were hit the hardest, yes smh closes on the highs of the day, still down 1%, i'm okay with that. taiwan, the epicenter of this story, down 1% this is a high beta market a lot of sort of storm here, a lot of noise, but not a lot of signal the stock didn't even break below its 50-day moving average. >> youguys are all bulls >> i have to take some issue here let's talk about micron, a huge supplier to apple. down more than 10% from its highs. it gapped up after those earnings and then got creamed, okay taiwan semi is down 10% from a month ago, 52-week high. >> come on >> it could be the hottest sector, the hottest trade in tech over the last two years is starting to roll >> smh goes up 33% andpulls back 8 on a classic seasonal

run. you don't have to be bullish, but -- >> a rotation out of technology. >> this is where it would start. >> you heard it out of micron. dram and nand, you're seeing a rebuild of inventories we saw a drawdown of inventories in the last six months you just think you can overreact. >> what if the presumption is thatthis can start or make the rotation out of technology snowball there's already this thought in the market -- >> i'm not sure that's a bad thing. >> maybe it's not a bad thing. >> you've seen the action in energy, we'll get to the surge off the bottom tech has held up extremely well, i think, given this aggressive move into energy and more cyclical factors we talk about seiasonality.

>> one other piece out there, we know our best estimate is that things are going well right now for apple, despite the news today. i think that's probably indicative of the broader semi market if you fast forward six, nine months from now, we'll be talking about 2019 i'm more concerned about the multiples on some of these chip stocks at the end of next year as we start thinking about -- because whenever you have a big year, you naturally have a pullback in the growth rate. to me, that's one of the bigg bigger -- >> but your presumption is that in 2018 these stocks will continue to run. >> exactly in the first half. when things are doing great in the middle of 2018, that's when multiples start to -- >> is that your -- >> sorry to cut you off, mel, but to me it's all about the multiple where are you next year on earnings, eps? >> $12 you can put a 16 multiple on that, you get to about a trillion dollar company. >> that's the high end of the multiple >> so 10% from here. guys, here's the thing

if there was ever going to be a cyclical stock, they introduced a thousand dollar phone and they don't have the demand -- i'm just saying, i'm not wish-casting >> but we're not sure about that >> we'll know in a few weeks >> it wasn't a smooth launch it's not because of demand he just said that. >> we don't know what are we talking about? we don't know. the iphone x demand has not been great, okay? so if we see that in their guidance for the march quarter, then that's it, in my opinion, they totally miscalculated on a market where 85% of the market share is android and the average selling price is maybe a third of apple's average selling prices so to me, if they can't have a hit in this high end product in this quarter and the next one, that may be it >> this gets back to a company that has no innovation and it's all about one refresh, when that's not what people have been talking about for the last six months they've been talking about 23% growth in services, they've been

talking about asps that are growing higher if anything, gross margins are going higher >> he's year was the lowest in two years. >> that's the call i mean, the call is -- their asp, they're holding it. they're not giving it up and then there are places like india and china which are turned around >> meantime the stock is headed to $300 billion in market cap. the bears have been calling a cyclical stock they've missed out on $400 billion in market cap. i think 2018 will be another great example of that. >> it wasn't just apple, the rest of the tech space taking a hit as well. rich ross has three names, head over to the plasma, rich there he goes. sauntering away. >> do we have to invite him back >> not necessarily >> we've made our list, we checked it twice microsoft still comes out on top. we talk about the strength the relative strength versus the market some of the weakness you saw microsoft is holding like a rock

look at the short term trend, the next move coming out of this pattern is higher. as we discussed last week on this very show, it's the power of this base that makes us really bullish here. this is an 18-year base here, absolutely and on a relatively basis, look at this. you've just started to break out versus the s&p first time in 17 years, taking out those old highs. there's really a lot to like about microsoft. so now we're going to look at vmware, we'll stay in the software space, maybe not a household name but it should be. $70 billion in market cap. an equally bullish base, albeit shorter, talking about a five-year breakout base here to a new all-time high. just like a microsoft, what we like about the stock is this relatively strength breakout you see a stock that had been underperforming the market for the better part of the last four years. so now we emerge, both relatively and absolutely, as you saw, just before microsoft and vmware in the software space, two great buys the big boy here, facebook

what i like about facebook is the stock hasn't done very much, okay for the last five months going back to july, the stock is not underowned but underappreciated, underloved i like that, going into one of the strongest periods of seasonality for tech and big tech more broadly. we go higher there's three great ways to play technology, microsoft and vmware in the software space and facebook in the faang space. >> if you weren't on the desk i might not invite you back. >> he's going to be homeless what's he going to do? come on back >> tim, your pick of the three >> i like facebook facebook has priced in a lot of challenging news the headwinds coming out of europe obviously the stuff in terms of privacy is a big deal here i think they've also let the market know they're going to spend a ton to control some of the factors in their business, including the media side of it, that have gotten a little away from them.

the fact that this stock is holding this ground, that is bullish. >> another big advantage that they're going to have is they haven't monetized messenger yet. they've hinted that's going to be coming. analysts have been putting concepts around that that should be possible over the next couple of years >> what do you think payments >> messaging in general. >> paypal is a massive lever for this company to pull when they bought whatsapp a few years ago, they said they wouldn't put ads on it and they haven't done anything to monetize it. >> would they put ads on the app? >> there's a lot of ways to do it, deals with retailers, that sort of stuff. to me it sounds like payments is the way forward. with facebook, you just mentioned it, you just said the street knows they'll be spending more 2018 eps is expected to be up 11%. people have already worked in,

you know, higher costs >> 30% sales growth. to me it may start looking cheap if people see other levers for them to pull >> i'm glad you mentioned the cashout. what are the odds that facebook or apple does something with blockchain or crypto in the next year and what does that do to the multiple we've seen what it does to long island iced tea multiple >> apple is not going to do anything in crypto in the next year, it isn't part of their culture. they'll let someone else lead and be the pioneer there >> facebook? >> i think it might work with a third party to do it >> would you be happy as an investor if they announced something? >> look, i think showing an awareness of how payments are being made and how the world is being disrupted or certainly disinteredi disentdi disintermediated facebook is trading at a premium. >> when you listen to paypal

talk about venmo, they talk about it as a social media network. >> i think their silence speaks volumes here the fact that we're not rushing into the market on this nascent technology that's really yet to be proven outside an historic run on the stock charts here as it pertains to the stock chart itself, you're moving sideways here. that's bringing expectations down as you go into a period of very strong seasonality, you want to buy large cap tech stocks like facebook when the stock is consolidating in sideways fashion. coming up, the hedge fund manager who has just bid a cool million bucks that bitcoin will rise you won't want to miss that. energy stocks leading the market today are any of the traders buying this move? we'll find out later, tim has the hot hand. we're talking about a pitch out of the park. now he's doubling down on one stock that's already up, 80%

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this month this as crude oil has surged more than 2% today, hitting a high of $60 a barrel, the highest level since june of 2015 is energy setting up for a 2018 rally? we've seen one already >> the 2017 rally. this isn't about saying who is right or who's wrong what i'm saying about energy is so many people avoided this for a lot of different reasons, which included i don't need to own it, i've been hurt before, blah, blah, blah you saw this with a couple of key names, especially anadarko, late summer, they started giving money back to investors, they started investing for equity shareholders, not debt shareholders that changed the tone. midstream right now looks very interesting. oil services and midstream looking the most interesting this is storage, transportation, pipelines, mlps. these are the names to me that are trading at massive discounts relative to their histories.

this is the time to buy them >> mr. technician here >> the underlying commodity looks good that's not the problem with energy you have a bullish multiyear base of support. you've touched $60 today for the first time in two years. you take out that 200-week moving average, for the first time in three years. crude, if it were a stock, you would buy it oil field services are down 20%, seen s&p energy down 3%. the strongest names have been integrateds, refiners. you keep buying those. e&p, you like those. oil field services, halliburton, that's a group that still has some wood to chop here it should come around. a lot of things should happen. >> you guys are all bullish. how much does this have to do with positioning when people came in bullish this year and pretty bearish on oil in general? >> it's totally about fundamentals some of it is positioning, because people have been so negative think about where we've gone, where inventories have gone.

we've gone into possibly -- we've at least taken out the massive supply >> the sector being underowned, does that super charge what exists in terms of the fundamental story? does that work here? more people will have to push into it. >> yes but i think we now need to look across the entire space. if you want to look at resources, commodities, it's not just oil that's doing this copper is at 3 1/2 year highs. people have to believe this isn't just about a weaker dollar or just a supply story that suddenly changed you have a demand side of the equation you have a lack of investment, a lack of a path of investment in all these sectors, which means it's putting upward pressure on spot do you think the weaker dollar is going to be sideways this year then you stay with these trades. >> to get a trade out of it, you can get that based on sentiment and positioning. it gets washed out, you get a nice year-end surge. to get the big long only money

involved, to make energy overweight again, you'll need to see fundamentals come through. we've seen signs of it but you'll need so tea people put billions behind it i like what we see into the new year >> rich is a bridge builder, bridging the divide. >> i will just tell you guys, when i look at this crude chart for the last 20 months or so, it's traded at 40 to the downside, now getting back to 60, that looks like the best trade in the space it looks like it's poised for an epic breakout. how do you play that in the equity market, tim >> i would go eog, cbx, and an apache those are great. retail seeing its best holiday season in years. that has a number of names surging. should you trust the retail resurgery he is nore sur

resurgery -- resurgence? i'll explain wondering how high bitcoin can go one hedge fund manager is betting it could hit $50,000 next year. he'll be here to tell us why plus tim is bringing the heat, pitching one stock that's up 80% this year he says it has even more room to run, when "fast money" returns across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online. i used to have more hair. i used to have more color. and... i used to have cancer. i beat it. i did. not alone.

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welcome back to "fast money. it was another wild, wild weekend for bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency seeing huge swings over the last few days. if today is an indication, the bitcoin boom is still very much intact seema mody is breaking it down >> reporter: melissa, after losing one fourth its value last

week, it rebounded over the weekend although still trading below it's recent peak of $20,000. there are concerns that coinbase is experiencing a backlog of outgoing transactions for bitcoin and ether. despite the recent volatility in those concerns around coinbase, bitcoin still up over 1500% this year and its market cap has risen over $250 billion. as trading operators launch new bitcoin products, a broader range of investors are showing interest in bitcoin. and per google trends, interest has been rising throughout the year in nations like south africa and australia melissa, back to you >> seema, thanks so much dan, you've dabbled in this. >> coinbase

probably 50 times this weekend we had that massive 30% selloff in just a couple of days the fact that it's found a level and stabilized is really important. we were talking about what mike novogratz was saying -- >> is it really stabilized or stabilized for bitcoin >> it found a home, it's not moving it bounced back. >> 50% move to me in a week is not stabilized had of when we talk about this theme about bitcoin, what gets missed in all of this, in looking at the value of it, is retailers. imagine a retailer accepting a bitcoin and it's up 30% or down 40% the next day when you talk about the adoption, you have to put -- >> no one's really talking about it as a currency right now there's no argument for currency to be made at the moment >> even as a stored value, if it's fluctuating, what retailer in their right mind will accept this

>> no retailer >> bitcoin has been around for ten years and it hasn't necessarily been a solution on payments, right? granted, some of this is adoption, a lot of this is what gene is talking about. but ultimately this is a new asset class. there's a lot of different reasons people believe in it without get to go the theting t people believe there is a limited amount of supply bitcoin is one of the ones where people can rattle off how many coins are out there, blah, blah, blah the relaality is this is what people are investing in. >> people are investing in it today. but wait until you have a pullback i'm not suggesting this is not the future of value transfer i believe in it. but i think that this is a bubble, and i think that as soon as it starts -- the momentum starts to go the other way, the searches on google will continue to skyrocket but it's going to be about people trying to get out. despite bitcoin's massive move, our next guest says it could search as high as $50,000 by the end of 2018

ari paul joins now from stamford, connecticut. thanks for being with us >> thank you for having me >> when did you place this bet >> it was a little over a week ago. frankly, i think it's not quite as interesting as people make it out to be. it was 50,000 strike calls that expire end of next year, december of 2018 and as anyone who is familiar with options, buying an out of the money call is not a bet that something will happen. it's a bet that something could happen you're getting good odds and it gives you a chance to participate with minimum risk. >> if bitcoin does not hit $50,000 bit end of the year, this is worthless, but if bitcoin rises above, then you have the right to buy a certain number of bitcoin at a certain price? >> correct this call costs $3600. if bitcoin settles anywhere below 50,000 next year, it will expire worthless but if bitcoin goes to $100,000, it pays 30 to 1. it's bet, to use option jargon,

on fat tails this is a hypervolatile asset. bitcoin is up more than 1400% this year, as you noted earlier. it falls 30% every other month it's a hypervolatile asset these calls are a bet that if it's volatile to the upside, we could easily see $50,000 next year >> for the viewer, it's important to remember that this is not a high conviction bet when you say you're adding leverage to an already pretty convictive near the money bet. explain that, it's like a lotto ticket on something you're already convicted on when you have near the money participation. >> that's interesting. i wouldn't recommend for most people to buy these options. for me it's the opposite of that for an individual, buying bitcoin is kind of like owning a call an individual a year ago risks $900 that was their maximum risk. they ended up making, you know, well over 15 times their money so it acted like a call. and i actually think that bitcoin still remains a call

today you're risking 15,000. over the next few years it could well be 50,000 or 100,000. not saying it will, but it could. i manage a cryptocurrency portfolio and i'm trying to give investors access to the upside i'm also focused on risk management these calls are a way for me to capture that upside exposure while actually owning less bitcoin. these calls let me capture upside while reducing my downside risk. >> you purchase these calls on ledger apps? >> that's right. >> there are a lot of crypto hedge fund managers probably looking to do the same thing and hedge their portfolio. what sort of effect longer term do you see as more liquidity in options comes about for bitcoin? >> so liquidity, as we know, is very powerful. there's a massive liquidity discount for many assets, when a stock gets added to the s&p 500, it tends to rally. bitcoin was trading about a billion dollars day a globally just five months ago now we're seeing $14 billion a

day. this is just the beginning, cboe and cme futures just launched, ledger options just launched, exchange traded notes are coming outside of woodwork all over the world. >> does this dampen the volatility at all? what's the longer term impact? >> very short term, my guess is that it will dampen the volatility as you have more market makers. right now there's very little market making. most people are momentum traders on this. as market makers come in, it will dampen the short term volatility but i don't think it will dampen the month to month or year to year volatility there is no clear intrinsic value. not to say there is no value, i think there's tremendous value, but there's no set number at which warren buffett comes in and starts buying a ton or starts liquidating >> this is rich ross here.

i applaud your moxie here, this is sort of the texas hedge, your long crypto and long calls to manage your risk other than that, in terms of defining that risk, how are you hedging this extremely volatile underlying asset other than buying those big upside calls? >> so the calls let me have lower data i'm able to own less cryptocurrency as a whole while providing my investors with that optionality, with that payoff if bitcoin goes to $100,000 but if bitcoin falls by 80%, get to lose less because i own less cryptocurrency these calls give me access to the upside with less exposure. investors with us specifically are trying to take this bet. they want exposure to cryptocurrency and they're deciding how much risk they want to take. they're deciding if that's 2% of the portfolio or 10% or 20%. my mandate is to capture the short term alpha in this market and provide some exposure to the upside >> last question, ari. 50,000 by the end of next year, if that's not your call, what is

your call for bitcoin? and what's your favorite cryptocurrency at this point in terms of upside? >> my call is for extreme volatility with upside potential, which was what makes a very attractive call in terms of favorite cryptocurrency, it's hard to pick one but one that i think has very real fundamental value is manero, a privacy focused cryptocurrency with strong engineering. >> isn't that the one used by criminals? >> everything is used by criminals, including the u.s. dollar and the euro. >> that's true thank you for joining us, ari paul, fascinating stuff. this is right up your alley, dan. >> hopefully we'll be doing it on "options action." when you think about a $3600 call one year out on a $50,000 strike, that is still 7% of the 50,000 strike. the probability of making money on that is very low, okay? so to me, i think there's a lot of people who own this volatile

cryptocurrency who would rather sell those calls to actually take in some premium against this volatile asset. >> one other sellry poi rsummar. he talked about the reason he put this trade on is because of the volatility this isn't necessarily a bullish statement about near term crypto, i'm a believer long term, but this is a bullish statement on volatility. >> ultimately, what i think ari is doing is trying to employ a number of risk management methods or portfolio management techniques >> right >> that ultimately is the question i have for anybody that's managing a fund in crypto what's the skill set, what's the track record that either entitles you or gives you an edge in the space. that's what we're all about to learn. ahead, retail stocks on fire after holiday sales. some of these names may have run too far, too fast. we'll break it down. tim's had the hot hand one of his recent fast pitch ideas surging more than 25%. can he do it again stick around to find out

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welcome back to "fast money. retailers are feeling the christmas cheer this year with holiday spending hitting a new record high. kate rogers is live in the thick of it at one of our nation's largest shopping malls, hi,

kate >> reporter: melissa, good to see you. we'll kick it off with amazon, saying it had its biggest and best holiday season ever they said customers bought tens of millions of alexa-enabled devices around the globe more than 4 million people trialed their amazon prime subscription service we also got new data from mastercard out this morning. they said that overall, sales from november 1st through christmas eve grew by 5% that is the best case since 2011 e-commerce sales grew 18% during that same time period. and to dig into those numbers a little more, electronics grew 7.5% that's the best case in ten years. jewelry grew by more than 6% home improvement and items for the home, that grew by around 5% this holiday season. and overall, the nrf says sales were set to grow by around 4% up

from last year to a total on the high end of $682 billion adobe says that e-commerce sales accounted for about $100 billion or so of that. if you take a look at the retailers today, the standouts with jcpenney, macy's, and kohl's, closing higher 5% on the day. >> thank you, kate rogers at the mall tim, what are your picks, holdings, macy's is doing quite well >> macy's is fantastic the story is not only where expectations and perceptions were, but they're running the inventory in a very different way. i think they've taken advantage of some opportunities in their capital markets to improve their balance sheets to me, people made a big deal out of saying, they always do this this time of year they don't always do this. xrt has traded lower three of the last four years, essentially from black friday through the end of the first quarter or when they announced fourth quarter eps. again, i think this is a trade, you stay in a lot of these

names. having said all that, these guys don't necessarily get back to the former multiple until we see a very different game and you can take some profits here >> did you say xrt was the worst chart in the world a couple of times? >> i was wrong a lot of these retailers were at the lows in the summer, i thought it got way overdone, but i got off that trade a little too early, september, october, something like that. i'll just say this we had very easy comparison year over year. we had very poor sentiment we know a lot of these balance sheets were impaired maybe they did better with inventory. it's a less promotional period consumer confidence is better. i've said it a couple of times over the last few months, these stocks, we'll see amazon -- >> this is a tax bill that will totally help most of these guys are paying effective tax rates of 39% these were all things beating these guys over the head a year

ago. >> i'm a tech guy. when i hear people getting interested in traditional brick and mortar retail, i want to add perspective, because tech is the future in the next year, my prediction is target gets acquired by amazon >> by amazon >> by amazon and it really kind of puts together this duopoly of walmart versus amazon. when i look at that 5% growth for traditional retailers, amazon is going to be at 26% you can talk about the little things i will add just one little teaser in terms of how e-commerce is going to evolve, how the pace of ecustome-commer increase it's nice to have the one and two-hour delivery from amazon, but certain people will need more you'll start to see the human element that e-commerce companies will adopt >> which is why they go to target why amazon to target >> amazon -- target adds an important demographic.

they'll take that, similar to whole foods, and morph that to online amazon is probably not going to be an enjoy customer but all e-commerce can be powered by a more personalized service. i'm negative on traditional brook and mortar >> you've said this could be the time for retail, and i would agree with that, the ducks are getting in a row here. however, from a technical standpoint in many places, it might be the time but it's not the chase. there's charts i would focus on. look at kohl's, a 62% surge, just like we saw 2016 going into 2017 that was the top, the best time to sell it don't chase kohl's here, this is not the place to do it next we have foot locker, okay 72% surge from the low what have we done? resistance to the 200-day moving average. please don't chase foot locker here dan, we've got something combs, something blue, something

borrowed on the short side, and something tiffany. a beautiful breakout this is a stock that could trade 135. within retail you still have to be discretion ary. >> no way this administration lets amazon/"the washington post" buy target >> i think alibaba should buy target if they want to enter the u.s. retail matter >> the same reason they bought whole foods. >> doesn't the amazon multiple have to be brick and mortar multipled even a little bit? >> no. if one of the reasons they can continue to fuel this low market growth -- >> a couple of things. let's be clear about this. tiffany is a takeover target these guys get a lot of benefit from the dollar and from taxes but again, talking about retail now, people are getting fired up

after 20, 30% moves, is what we're saying on the desk you have to be careful on a lot of these names ahead, elon musk taking to twitter about his next big idea, a pickup truck is it about to pick up the stock price? plus tim is warming up to pitch a stock he's calling a screaming buy. it's already up 80% in 2017. find out what when he delivers his fast pitch

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welcome back to "fast money. just one month ago, tim stepped up to the plate to pitch u.s. steel. >> i want to draw a trend. because you can make an argument that this trend has been impact the entire time. as sloppy as that line looks, the bottom line is we've challenged a lot of directional in here. it's held above the 200. it's held above the 100. this is a channel that's very interesting. go buy this now. >> nice charting, tim. despite his charting, the up trend has stayed intact. the stock has gone down 24% since then >> dan and i had a combat that night, he was right, the stock needed to get above the trend line and my line was sloppy enough to hide it all. the bottom line is i've stayed long in u.s. steel if you look at where steel demand is, the fact that we're preventing a lot of dumping in this country this is a poster child for what trump is trying to do.

on valuation and cash deals is why i own it, not because i'm expecting anything else. >> head over to the plasma and give us your next pitch. >> u.s. still was a stock that was down i'm talking about melco. this is a stock that's had a huge run and has a lot more to go here's why the vip and premium trends in the sector are going higher. we know what's going on in vegas. most people are trying to get exposure to macaw. they're probably 70% macau in wynn despite what people think about big brother in china, i think we've gotten a lot of the macro issues final, the discount to the other plays that i think people are

very comfortable playing is massive. a discount to wynn in las vegas is something that ultimately is exactly what we want to do and something we want to follow. if i look at this chart, this is where you should have concern, if anything. this is an 85% move. that is not necessarily where i care about the chart i care when i look back kind of to where we were in 2015 and back through the peak days of all the gamers in asia this is a stock that has a lot of room to run but on multiple it's a stock you can stay very long with a lot of momentum behind it. >> tim, sales are supposed to decelerate next year obviously this is a story, the company is very levered. is there something going on here like have you gotten the move? not too dissimilar with what we were talking about with a lot of these retailers that look like they may be overshot to the downside, now they've had peak sales. >> no, their balance sheet gets better they just completed capex on a tower project next to their

casino in macau. i like sales growth in 2018. >> time is to vote are you buying tim's pitch on a melco resorts? >> "a" for the pick. you want to be a buyer of melco. >> gene? >> i'm also a buyer, you had me at best way to play macau, i love that place. >> i'm a buyer also. tim is technically so bad, but his fundamentals are fantastic >> fair. >> technically so bad. >> fair. >> ouch. did tim's pitch make you want to take a gamble on the stock vote right now on our poll at cnbcfastmoney on twitter elon musk is hinting a new idea is in the pelipine. stick around to see if our traders think the stock is a buy.

tesla ceo elon musk saying he's dying to make a pickup truck. shares are down nearly 10

percent in just the past three months the pickup truck would come after the model "y" which would be a crossover what do you think, gene? >> this is a big deal. it adds 15% to the addressable market for tesla more important, this shows how well positioned the company is to the next transition to ev i can't stress this enough, the big bear case on tesla right now is production. this manufacturing hell they're going through. when they're talking about doing the truck, what he's saying is i need to figure out the manufacturing issues and then we'll get to the pickup truck. ima i just want to point out that anybody who is bearish on tesla, car manufacturers will are to go through the same sea change. >> except they have to find a place to produce these new vehicles they don't have the production capacity currently to add a "y" and a pickup truck meantime they're burning cash. >> as far asthe production ability, they have enough production space right now to manufacture essentially a million cars a year. so they did about 50,000 last

year they can ramp this and get investors more calm. as far as the cash is concerned, as long as they keep positioning themselves for ev and autonomy, investors are going to back them they're not going to have a problem. it's going to be a great story as people get pins and needles about it i'm a big believer in tesla. i think the story has a lot of upside >> what's with the stock recently >> recently the stock has done a whole lot of nothing, recently being the last seven or eight months it hasn't been a great year. it hasn't been a disaster either absent a break below the high end of that range. on the pullback, let's call it 280. the dow around 318 you can use a 280 stop, not super tight for traders, but the chart's not broken if anything it's a continuation pattern, a countertrend channel, and the stock can move higher. >> one tesla trader is betting on a come back break it down. >> i think it's really important

to remember this stock subpoena 50%. it's actually been really good, down about 17, 18% from its 52-week high call volume was two times puts the activity looked like 4 or 5,000 of the january 330, 345 call spreads were bought for close to 4 bucks not a great risk/reward. what's next? earnings are not until february but we know we'll get deliverie next week. this is a new long position for that if we look at the chart, 300 is the level it just bounced off of >> i'll warn people about that number, that important number that dan talked about that comes out next week. people will focus on model 3 i wouldn't be surprised if there's a miss on that number. i don't think that changes the trajectory >> "options action,"ul fl show on friday afternoon at 5:30 eastern time

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>> tesla don't overthink it they have a bold position for the future in autonomy and electric vehicles. >> smh, semis, you sell them i think it sees 95 soon. i'm melissa lee. have a great night "mad money" is up next i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cray america. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach. call me or tweet me. every night i come out here and tell you what happened during the day, why it happened and what you can do with the information.