a new year, a new investment playbook what you should be doing with your money in 2018. president trump returns to washington we'll tell you what is on his agenda. and crisis in iran we'll tell you what lies ated. it's january 2, 2018, "worldwide exchange" begins now good morning i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen >> happy new year to you and

happy new year to all our viewers. let's look at markets this morning. coming off a bright session in asia, less bright in europe. we're mixed here the nasdaq slightly lower. the dow and s&p slightly higher. we had a selloff to the end of trade last week, last year as well and that meant that week to date we had slight declines in the u.s., but clearly still gains for the month, the quarter and the year consumer discretionary, the best sector for the quarter and tech the best sector for the year ten-year treasury, saw lower yields close to 2.5% on the ten-year but ended very close to 2.4 again, which is where we are now. 2.43%. >> let's look around the world starting in asia and see where equities ended up. you can see mostly higher for china. the hang seng higher by 2% shanghai up by 1.3%.

the kospi higher by a half percent. better than expected data that we got out of china. that's helping a bit here. the nikkei was just slightly lower for that session that's despite what we heard out of north korea with some of the sabre rattling and the talk of it being a nuclear power from kim jong-un, though he did acknowledge he is open to dialogue with south korea. we'll see if that happens. so far markets shrugging that off, paying more attention to the data let's look at europe after a mostly lower session on friday for european equities. we are again lower here. the dax down more than a percent. the italian ftse also down by a percent as well in the early going. auto stocks were under pressure to begin >> that's despite the strongest manufacturing data we've seen since records began in 1997. 60.6 was the reading for manufacturing pmi.

very strong print there. china's manufacturing pmi, 51.6. not nearly resounding as the eurozone number. oil prices, wti above $60. 60.3 just slipping a bit. look at the dollar, the broad index last year lost 10% so significant decline as we knew through the course of last year it did pick up pace again at the end of december. despite the passage of the tax bill, the final week or so of trade did see a negative move for the dollar it's continued today the euro back above 1.20 1.207. up half a percent. the dollar slipping against the major currencies this morning. gold prices finished the year above 1,300. did return 14% for the year as a whole. most of that happening the first half of the year decent run towards the end of the year

bitcoin to round things off for you, it's around the 14,000 mark, 13,800 level. the first full week of 2018 -- i shouldn't say full week since we're starting on tuesday, but we have a week full of economic data tomorrow the ism manufacturing index, auto sales and minutes from the fed meeting thursday, the employment report. on friday, the ism services index for the u.s. bp expects a positive impact from its future post-tax earnings from the u.s. due to the new tax law. it says lowering of the tax law will require re-evaluation it is slipping 0.3% in london trade. deutsche bank ceo john cryan says the company will resume

normal bonuses and some people will get pay bonuses as you can see, deutsche bank, not reacting too much, down 0.2% it did need to get back to paying bonuses this year or potentially face the departure of various employees after zero bonuses last year. apple says $29 replacement batteries for old iphones are available now. supplies may be limited. last week apple said the replacement batteries would not be ready until late january. apple offered the batteries after saying they slowed down older phones hyundai and kia motors say they sold a quarter million vehicles last year, which missed targets. they expect softer demand in the u.s. and china this year shares down 4% the starz and encore

channels have done dark on some cable networks in the new york area altice serves about 5 million cable subscribers in the new york area and midwest. shares are unchanged disney is dominant at the box office again "star wars" was the top film over the new year's weekend with an estimated 68$68.4 million. the movie made 5$533 million domestically becoming the top-grossing film of 2017. it topped $1 billion worldwide disney had 3 of the top 5 world grossing films last year have you seen it >> i haven't have you >> no but i haven't seen many of the "star wars" movies >> i was waiting for crowds to die down computer glitch at u.s. customs is creating travel headaches nationwide kate rogers has the details of

that airline passengers returning to the u.s. from their new years holiday faced complicated and unpredictable moments when they arrived at some of the nation's airports last night. there was a computer problem that created several hours of long lines at immigration checkpoints at airports across the country. the agency says the outage began at about 7:30 p.m. eastern and was resolved at about 9:30 p.m a cpb spokeswoman released a statement saying all airports are currently back online, which is good news the spokeswoman said during the disruption the agency had access to national security related databases, and this allowed cpb officers to screen travellers as quickly as possible while maintaining the highest levels of security. at this time there's no indication that the service disruption was malicious in nature it's unclear what caused the computer glitch. back over to you >> thank you very much for that. still ahead on "worldwide

exchange," anti-government protests turn deadly in iran the latest on the developing story. and as we kick off the new year a look back at the biggest dow winners of 2017. boeing, caterpillar, visa and apple with double digit returns. we're back after this break. i love taking care of my mom. it wasn't easy at first. she learned how to better communicate her needs. and you learned how to not ignore yours.

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welcome back to "worldwide

exchange." i'm courtney reagan. in the early going, things look slightly mixed the dow jones indicating to open about 17 points higher the s&p 500 higher by a point. the nasdaq opening lower by 9 points we saw a markedly down day on friday, however after a strong year with the dow, s&p and nasdaq seeing the best year since 2013 let's look at what's going on in the bond market with the ten-year treasury note by in large, most of the euro saw records for the ten-year and five-year yield. this morning the price of bonds ticking down a little bit across the board from the two-year to the 30-year treasury the new year brings new financial regulations in the eu. will frid you have to explain this why does this matter >> mifid ii which comes in tomorrow, and, you know, it's a huge, huge piece of legislation.

1.7 million paragraphs i don't want to oversimplify it. the main point is from now on asset managers have to pay hard dollars, cash, for research from brokers, rather than in the past they paid soft dollars, it's come out of the commissions they paid for trading the big implication of that is likely consolidation on both sides whether you talk about asset management or brokers or investment bankers going forward. so on the investment bankers side of thing, on the brokers side, they're now going to have to charge money for specific research we'll get a market price for the research which used to be thrown in under the radar that means less research done in total. so apple has 40 different analysts covering it will we still be left with 40 when there's a specific dollar amount on their head on the buy side, on the asset management side people will have to pay specific money in the p & l for the research in terms of

bundling it in in terms of client fees. so people think that the unintended consequence on both sides could be consolidation but we don't know. it comes into play tomorrow. >> why are they doing this >> the original incentive, which started seven years ago this process, it was transparency for clients. if you're investing your money with an asset manager previously the eu didn't feel like you fully understood what you were paying for so they wanted to split out the bits so the cost for research going forward has to come out. it's a big piece of legislation. people are not sure if the industry is ready. we'll see how it spreads around the world. clearly everything is so global, this is the most stringent in this area, so does it filter out to the u.s. and other areas. >> very interesting. big thing to watch. still ahead, we'll bring you the big agenda items in washington as lawmakers return to work. first, here's the national

weather forecast from nbc's michelle grossman. good morning we are suffering once again through frigidaire today we have windchill warnings, windchill advisories for most of the nation where you see that dark pink, that's the windchill warnings and advisories the cold frigidaire coming down from canada. the jet stream so far south allowing the cold air to reach the southern states. freeze warnings in many spots. 6 below zero in chicago. once you factor in the winds, it feels colder than that 15 in atlanta. 27 in new orleans. things are not improving tomorrow we'll wake up to frigidaire once again. 1 below zero in minneapolis. 1 in indianapolis and philadelphia finally above single digits at 13. more "worldwide exchange" when we come back jimmy's gotten used to his whole room smelling like sweaty odors.

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hey, need fast try cool mint zantac. it releases a cooling sensation in your mouth and throat. zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. try cool mint zantac. no pill relieves heartburn faster. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get you up to speed on the market action. the dow and s&p slightly higher. the nasdaq a bit lower we had a selloff at end of trade last week, so down a half percent or so for the day, down about the same for the week. sharply higher for the month, the quarter and the year. we are following the developing story out of iran where anti-government protests have turned deadly let's get to matt bradley live in london for us with the

latest good morning to you. >> there's been a massive escalation in iran over the past two days the death toll has risen to above 20, that's along with one member of the security forces killed over the weekend. that's the first fatality among police and soldiers who have been deployed and that's likely to get a reaction from the government this has been going on since last thursday and appears to be getting worse. it started as protests over iran's economic decline and since then mushroomed into anger against this very religious regime itself and the clerics who back it. that's unprecedented it's about dashed hopes and expectations the iranian economy wasn't doing particularly well under u.s. sanctions, but when that was

lifted under the iranian nuclear deal, people in iran expected the economy to make strides, but it didn't. the employment rate hovers a little over 12%, it's much higher than that for the mostly youthful population. about half the population is under 30 in some parts of the country, nearly half of young people are out of work and inflation is soaring to about 10% while this does not necessarily represent a significant economic downturn, it's a reflection of dashed hopes and the failure to deliver for the iranian public they were hoping president rouhani, a religiously moderate reformer would make changes. president rouhani has defended the right of protests to come out into the street. but part of the problem is that the economic austerity plan that president rouhani himself imposed on the iranian public cut a lot of the subsidies on which many of the iranian public

rely that makes this demonstration so differented from the protests in the past, like the 2009 green movement the genesis of the protest was not in tehran but in the north and other places outside of the capital where it's a much poorer situation. so we're seeing a blow back from these people, not the educated elite so much in the major cities so if these protests pick up more steam and protesters react with growing anger to government repression, then president rouhani may find it's too late to make major economic policy changes. >> that was an excellent perspective in terms of how serious these were to iran's own perspective, but what about the arab spring earlier in the decade which did lead to the overthrow of certain governments. are we slightly close do that type of situation in iran? >> as i mentioned, that makes this so unique here.

over the past couple of weeks we've seen the economic protests morph into anti-regime protests and go further to start targeting the religious clerics, the ayatollahs, the mullahs who form the backbone of this government that's an interesting difference here in the middle east during the arab spring, we saw secular regimes, secular you a toregimsg trying to allow more freedom, and here in iran we're seeing the opposite, we're seeing a clerical religious regime defending itself against an uprising whose grievances have turned from economic to more political and seeing in some of these images, seeing protesters burning images of the ayatollah, of ayatollah hamini, and that is

unprecedented. we did not see that in the green movement back in 2009. >> matt bradley, thank you very much for that. south korea is offering to hold high-ranking government talks with north korea next week yesterday north korean president kim jong-un said he was open to negotiations but added his country would continue to work on mass producing nuclear warheads >> it's interesting to see how people framed this there was the mention of a nuclear button on his desk, so that was grabbing the headlines. but he uses that rhetoric any way. so you could pram this moframe positively saying if they are willing to talk to south korea as soon as this month, that could be more positive. president trump back at the white house this morning following a two-week working vacation in florida. let's get to tracie potts with more on the president's return to walk. good morning >> good morning, everyone. he's back and he's focusing

forward ending the year big on tax reform now the white house says he's looking ahead to welfare reform, immigration and national security >> we'll have a great year fantastic 2018 we're off to a good start. >> reporter: president trump and republican leaders meet at camp david next weekend to discuss this year's agenda replacing the affordable care act, welfare reform, immigration, infrastructure and national security including nuclear threats from north korea and iran >> the iranians are watching us and north korea. north korea is watching us in iran 2018 will be a year of opportunity and extreme danger >> reporter: back home democrats have their own agenda. >> we have to worry about pensions, health care. >> the dreamers. >> reporter: protection for young immigrants brought here illegally as children runs out in march to keep them here, republicans want money for a border wall >> we have to do this together

we can have smart solutions to border security. >> reporter: republicans may also revisit tax reform. >> i think we'll see a real push to make the tax cuts for individuals permanent. i think you'll see a vote on that in the first 30 days of the new year. >> reporter: another year of big challenges clouded by the russia investigation and another budget deadline in less than three weeks. now, meeting that deadline, getting a budget in place, avoiding a government shutdown, it could get a bit tougher this week because there are two democrats coming into the senate tomorrow one replacing a democrat, al franken. the other boosting the minority just little bit. that is doug jones out of alabama. >> thank you very much for that. recreational marijuana is officially legal in california retail cannabis shops opening their doors for the first time yesterday launching what many expect to be the largest market

for legalized recreational marijuana. tonight cnbc's "the profit" is dive nooing into the big businef pot. >> it took me a half hour driving on six miles of unmarked dirt roads hi there >> hi. >> at the end, tom and karen hessler's 40 acre farm >> honestly, if i had to describe your land to somebody, i couldn't it's like a fairytale book it's so beautiful and so removed. how long you have lived up here? >> since 1971. >> i don't want to make you feel older, but that's before i was born >> karen is the nurse with the green thumb. tom is an artist originally from new york, they came up here to get away from it all. literally. so when you left, you said i'm moving to california, i'm going to grow marijuana. >> no. we came to be self-sufficient and for tom do his artwork >> we raise our own food, make

our own electricity. >> this farm is their life's work they built the house by hand raised two kids here and helped put humbolt county on the map. >> we started this industry. there was nobody growing weed. there was nobody here. every piece of land was for sale >> you could have bought the whole mountain for 100 bucks >> 36,000 for the whole valley everything you see >> that's not today. >> no. >> today it would be 36 million. >> yeah. what did you pay for your land >> 9,000 >> for all 40 acres? >> 40 plus acres this was the poorest county in the united states when we came here logging was gone fishing was wiped out. this was a depressed area. >> so is the depression of this area the reason that cannabis came to be >> yes >> very interesting. so don't miss the premiere of

"the profit" tonight at 10:00 p.m. still ahead on "worldwide exchange," a round up of the top headlines, a check in of the global markets. and takinge ining the pulsef retail who won and who lost during the holiday shopping season. as we go to break a look at the best performing markets of 2017. "worldwide exchange" will be right back

making money in the new year, what you should be doing with your investments as we kick off 2018. the winners and losers, which retailers came out on top this holiday shopping season. and a look at some of the crazy new laws going into effect this year. it's tuesday, january 2, 2018. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning a warm welcome back to "worldwide exchange. i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm court couney reagan in f sara eisen great to be with you >> great to have you with us let's check in on the global markets as we kick off this brand-new year futures now are mixed. however we are many, many hours from the opening bell. a lot can happen the dow higher by 22 points if it were open right now the s&p getting stronger throughout the last hour, higher by 2 1/2

points the nasdaq down by 6 points. a check on the ten-year treasury note, we have had a decent run for most of the bond market. right now, 2.431 >> a strong session in asia. chinese manufacturing pmi in expansion territory. slightly lower than last month 51.6 the reading there a strong session, pretty much across the board japan flat hong kong and shanghai higher. european trade, despite strong pmis for the broader eurozone, 60.6 the strongest reading since the survey came into being in 1997 so, very strong picture there. but not for the equity markets which start the year lower looking at the broader markets. let's start with oil

we see oil prices ticking a touch lower. wti hanging on with that 60 handle $60.36 brent is lower, but at 66.80 actually a nice run that we saw on friday for wti as well as for brent. so some interesting moves there with wti higher for seven sessions out of eight. if we end lower today, that could break a bit of the streak. look at what's going on with the dollar, seeing weakness around the world when compared to the other currencies the euro is stronger against the dollar 1.2074 and the pound stronger against the dollar, 1.355. look at the price of gold. we talk a lot about bitcoin. look at gold actually on friday up about 1%, the highest level since the end of september tacking on a bit more of a gain this morning at 1,313.

we have to look at price of bitcoin also we've been watching this closely for the last several months. on most of the bitcoin exchanges, we're seeing it lower by 5%, hanging around the 13,700 mark the first week of 2018 is full of economic data. tomorrow we'll get the ism manufacturing index, december auto sales and minutes from the fed meeting. on thursday, the adp employment report on friday, the december jobs report and the ism services index. holiday shopping season is officially all wrapped up. who won at mall and online joining us is stacey widlitz, a cnbc contributor it's great to have you some of the early indications show all in all a strong season. we know not everybody won. so who, if you were to have to parse them out, who were the winners and who were the losers?

>> hi. yes, we saw those numbers, the government numbers have been incredibly strong. almost 6% year over year for retail sales and department stores were better in november decelerated slightly in december but across the board the consumer is feeling good the tax impact is certainly having a feel-good help. saving rates are at their lowest in a decade. don't forget everything is not all roses into 2018. there is still deflation out there. there's still deflation in apparel. there's even deflation in categories like beauty so there's still margin pressure out there. so into 2018 you want to be careful with this recent 20% in the retail index >> i think that's interesting when we talk about margins when you look at everything consumers want they want free shipping, fast shipping, talking about same-day

delivery that's not inexpensive to deliver. if you're an investor in retail, what should you be expecting when looking at margins if you're hitting on all cylinders with consumers that will come at a cost >> it sure will. we talked about years ago it was about free shipping. that hurt margins. it's not just about free shipping anymore, now it's about free returns, it's about click and collect. and it's about even same-day delivery you look at macy's,walmart, target, they're all going to same-day delivery. that comes at a cost to margins. in addition, the shift to online is a lower-margin business there's certain categories, particularly apparel and the teen space that will still be under a lot of pressure in 2018. >> talk to us about walmart, which had a strong year. can it repeat that strong year and what can we learn from what

they've been through with other stocks in a similar position >> walmart has done an incredible job in the past year and a half they've become a real competitor to amazon. the stock is trading at 21 times here and reflects that what i'm looking at is target. target has entered the investment phase that really is reminiscent of what walmart did two years ago. they're trading at a mid teen multiple if they can sort of get their act together and executed on click and collect, i would point out they were the latest available for click and collect the day before christmas, and that's a big deal. if they can executed and get that traffic in the store to return items or pick up online items and convert the customer to buy other things and manage store labor well, they're a huge winner and the next walmart potentially. >> we can talk about stocks going into 2018 now that we are

sitting here in 2018 consumer discretionary saw the best quarter the past quarter since 2013 a lot of those stocks were under pressure and saw a decent run up so you think fairly valued now what would you caution investors if they're looking at buying retail stocks? >> we've seen this 20% run since the q3 less bad earnings numbers here a lot of that is the feel-good tax impact but you have to acknowledge that the numbers out there have been a lot better i think as you go into 2018, you still want to be cautious on department stores. they had a nice run. even if you look at a nordstrom, even the rack has been decelerating that's a higher real estate cost division there you have to watch out. then again you look at stocks like lululemon that had this massive run but what are they doing? they're reaching out to the

slightly larger size consumer. updating their systems, so now they remember when you walk in the store what you bought last time and what size you are companies like that doing real things to make a difference in business i think you can still own here >> just pay attention to fundamentals and watch each individual company as always thank you very much, stacey widlitz. >> happy new year. >> thanks for joining us the new year means new laws going into effect. some of them are wild and wacky. kate rogers is here with the details. hi again >> good to see you guys again. kicking it off in illinois where the well-being of pets will be considered in court divorce cases. the court can allocate joint or sole ownership of pets in part based on their welfare service animals are exempt from that one in theprairie state, cools c chs can no longer be expelled from

pre-k, parental permission will be needed that in pennsylvania a permit for using consumer fire works is being removed, but many don't bother getting permits to begin with to use fireworks. good news for people liking to get wild on social media in vermont employers will be prohibited from requiring that applicants disclose their social media account information or access accounts in front of employers. and marijuana becomes legal for recreational use in california, and drivers and passengers will not be ability le to ingest whi the road, just like alcohol. and minimum wage workers are

ringing in the new year with some nice raises >> the pet one grabs attention i would have thought previously they're included in divorce settlements any way, aren't they >> i think a lot of times they are. if you have a prenup, i'm thinking of high net worth people, they would include their pets illinois they'll now take into consideration who the pet will be happier with, taken better care of. i'm obsessed with my dog i can appreciate that. >> that's hilarious. >> people spend billions of dollars on pets every year all around the world makes sense. >> great stuff thank you very much. moving on to the top trending stories, more than 300 hollywood women are launching an initiative to fight sexual harassment and gender pay disparity. it's called times up and advocates for change from movie sets, to farm fields and boardrooms alike it is being backed by some

powerful hollywood women there's a new american girl doll and she's reaching for the stars. mattel is teaming up with nasa for the latest american girl dog. she is a creative and confident girl who wants to be the first person to touch down on mars i'm blanking on the name of the movie, but the movie that came out last year based on the true story of the women math mathmeticians. excellent. the american doll reminds me of that big news for fans of cryptocurrency and the green bay packers alike. this house which is connected to the parking lot of the packers' playing field is the first to be sold on the blockchain in the u.s., using blockchain

the home is owned by chris murphy he is selling the packer house for $1 million despite it being assessed at 264,000, he wants to use the sale as a way to promote blockchain technology. >> so interesting. >> we have seen a house or two sold with bitcoin already, but -- >> i know diana olick did a story about paying rent in bitcoin. >> once or two transactions so far. >> the whole lambeau field packer nation is so interesting. right in the middle of a neighborhood. the bills are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 and they're looking to celebrate after securing a win in miami. the bills needed the bengals to beat the ravens to advance to the postseason, which they did in a show of gratitude, the bills tweeted out to the bangles, the people of the city of buffalo and bills fans thank you. very cool for the bills.

now to sports on the field college football national title game is set after the two some my final games were played last night. alabama took on clemson in the sugar bowl this time it was all alabama the crimson tide rolled over clemson beating the tigers 24-6. at the rose bowl, oklahoma and georgia went to double overtime. this was a game of all games after blocking a field goal, georgia ran it in for the winning score. georgia beats oklahoma 54-48 the highest scoring game in rose bowl history the bulldogs will take on alabama next monday for the national championship. the game is in atlanta, about an hour from georgia's campus fans were so excited their team reached the title game that stub hub's website crashed that was an awesome game, the oklahoma/georgia game. i didn't stay up for the other one. i'm an ohio state fan.

alabama took our spot, i didn't want them to continued on. a little bitter. ngog lie >>ext monday night the final. coming up, paying the price for shopping online. today's must reads are ahead as we gear up for the new trading year a look at 2017's dow losers

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm wilfred frost alongside courtney reagan. time for our top stories mine is in "the financial times. europe begins the countdown to day of the mifid

it's following weeks and months of individual mifid ii related articles, which comes into play tomorrow across the eu and has implications for the u.s it says the gigantic piece of eu legislation more than seven years in the making and containing 1.7 million paragraphs of rules will affect every corner of the financial services system from banks to brokers, stock exchange operators to retail investors. as we discussed earlier, a big piece of financial legislation, having implications for asset managers and banks in the itself this is a good summary of some of those potential consequences. >> has anyone put out timelines for when you may see the consolidation you suggested earlier? >> the consolidation would be a secondary effect if it raises the costs t will affect the smaller players more. i don't think we know how long that will take it comes into play tomorrow, these rules. so we'll see the shake out

happen quickly and see how it all plays out. >> my pick is in the "new york times. states pay the price when you buy online there's a brief urging the supreme court to reconsider its views on collecting tax for online transactions. he writes state and local governments will lose about $34 billion ofenue in 2018 because of the physical presence requirement. a number that will rise by 2022. in 1992, in e-commerce's infancy, the loss was 700 million to $3 billion he's saying, look, the law we use as the precedent doesn't really apply anymore things have changed markedly since 1992 i can't say i disagree with him. south dakota asked the supreme court to reconsider a decision involving retailers like wayfair

and overstock saying you sell goods to folks in our state, you don't have a physical presence, you shouldn't be required to collect sales tax. still ahead, investing on the new year, we'll tell you where to put your money as 2018 kicks off. we're back in a couple minutes some air fresheners are so overwhelming, they can... send you and your family running.

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for them and for you. find articles, tips and tools from experts and others who have been in your place. the caregiving resource center at aarp.org/caregiving. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." joe kernen joins us with a look at what's coming up on "squawk box. how are you? >> very well they always talk about how the first day, the first week goes, as the first week goes, january goes after that big gain in the averages last year it will be interesting. people are talking about the age of not just the bull market but the age of the economic expansion. but cross currents with all this

money that corporations are obviously going to be dealing with it's interesting one of your domicile companies, british petroleum has to take a charge you saw that if you look into the details of why they're taking the charge, it's interesting because they have all these losses during bad times, these tax deferred losses that used to be worth a lot of money when you pay 35% taxes. if your future taxes are 21%, the losses you offset gains with are not worth as much because it's a tax at 21 so in some perverse way what they have on their books is less valuable because there's lower tacks. who needs all that weird accounting i think it's cleaner it will end up being better for the companies. >> but their statement makes that clear like a lot of the u.s. banks >> how old is harry? >> probably about 33 or 34 >> how old are you now you're like 32, aren't you

>> 32. >> have you watched the crown? >> i've seen a few >> becky is watching the crown wilf is not a fan, i don't think. >> i'm a big fan haven't watched series two yet >> was all that stuff really happening? >> i haven't watched series two. >> >> fiphillip, man -- >> he's better later in the season >> anything going on with you? you know, harry is 33. cashing in you got anything going on? i know it's none of my business, but -- >> don't flo know if he wants to discuss that on television >> 2018, any chances of a major announcement >> chances of a wedding a small. i'll make sure you get a save the date >> any interested parties? >> i'm not the person to ask that you have to ask others joe, i'll leave it there >> it will be like this every

day of 2018 so you know. let's get a check in on the futures board here which is mixed. dow and s&p slightly higher. the nasdaq slightly lower. the chief economist from the america americas joins us now. let's talk about the great returns we saw last year, and the fact that we have great returns around the rest of the world. to what extent was the u.s. economic performance buoyed by the rest of the world and will that continue this year? the u.s. benefited from growth that could be nearing 3% when the fourth quart ser all said and done you had a friendly fed and a pro business administration. a lot of regulations were cut. there was some anticipation of corporate tax reform that drove the u.s if you look at the overseas

markets, they performed better that was due to the fact that the u.s. was doing better, that pulled the global economy up china improved a bit we also know that in europe, for example, they're behind the u.s. in terms of where the business cycle is to me it was synchronize the global growth and accommodative monetary policy. >> when you look forward to 2018, both for the u.s. and globally what are your expectations for economic expansion? we have had economic expansion for a number of years. can it continue and at what rate >> yes so the thing about -- one thing that macro economists generally agree on, business cycles don't die of old age, they die from imbalances right now i expect the economy to grow at 3%. i do expect more volatility. last year was such an unusually quiet year in terms of rate volatility, equity volatility.

so i think you'll have a busier year in terms of market movement my guess is that it will still be a good year for investing unless you think there's a recession on the horizon, history is clear that u.s. equities still perform quite well what are some of the key imbalances you would look out for that could change your view on that? >> my biggest fear -- the one imbalance is inflation i don't see a lot of inflation now. my fear is that if the economy performs as well as i believe it will this year, you'll get some people on the fed that will want to hike rates pore than what's price ed into the market, whichi basically one to two hikes at most then markets correct financial conditions tighten, and that slows the economy my guess is that ultimately the fed won't go aggressively. i only expect two hikes. that would be the fear, as we come off this extraordinary peer of accommodations, markets get

rattled. >> joe, thank you very much. >> thank you very much. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squk x"awbo is coming up next g for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. prevagen. the name to remember.

good morning protesters in iran reportedly attacking police stations. we have the latest from tehran and the move on oil prices. president trump returns to d.c. we'll tell you what's on his agenda and get your portfolio ready for the new year we'll talk strategy ahead of the first trading session of 2018. it's tuesday, january 2, 2018. it's an all s.e.c. championship. i don't know if that's happened before "squawk box" begins now.

♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning, everyone happy new year, welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site at times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour you will see at this point it looks like the futures for the s&p are slightly above fair value. up about 3.5 points. dow is up by 21 points the nasdaq under by 5.5 points overnight in asia, the nikkei was closed for a bank holiday. the hang seng was up by almost 2% shanghai composite up by 1.25% in europe at this early hour, you will see that at least at this point there are red arrows across the board the dax is down by almost 0.8% the cac is off by 0.9% the