welcome to "street signs." >> i'm joanna brasky >> and i'm willem marx airbus edges out the playmaker says the a330 is finished unless emirates agrees to buy more. >> rally ended in europe

a chinese equity spooks investors away from hikes in asia since the best start since 2003 and there are greater worries of an spd rebellion and signs of a division between a deal with angela merkel conservatives. good morning, everyone it's monday. it's martin luther king jr. so the u.s. out for today the hanover from asia was a little mixed we did have a strong session in top topix. different picture in china, we'll get into some of those stories in just a little bit as you can see the hanover is grim when it comes to the stocks, the market is opening 10% weaker let's get to individual indices.

the number one story in uk this morning is the yen inside administration according to the reports from the bbc there are three banks that have sizable exposure you can see the ftse 100 is trading in the red this morning. in fact, that say theme across the board. you can see every single european index is trading in the red. i did want to alert you to dax as well. with the talks taking place, but the picture is quite grim. media leading the charge up 6% beverage is up .2% to the downside, health care lagging, and 0.6%. and telecoms, and but the main

story. >> and back to you >> after failing to secure additional support.the british construction company employs 43,000 people and has issued three different profit warnings over the past year the first came in july 2017 it coincided with the executive in chief richard howuzen joining us on the phone, lait laith thalo laugf. should we be concerned about banks exposed? >> yes any of the banks that have lent

money to carilion have to take a writedown on the debt. it depends a certain extent what the main assets of carillion could be sold for. obviously, there are contracts that they are involved in and property as well so there may be some recovery. but what we might see that actually it does have an impact on some banks' balance sheets. if you look at the banks we're talking, the likes of banks like hsbs, you might not actually notice it in reporting season. but it will have some small impact on these banks. >> where has the company made its biggest mistakes, do you think? >> big mistake, really, there are a number of contracts that were mispriced and misjudged so the problem surfaced last year when it turned out that,

you know, the company had to write down 800 million pounds because a number of projects were running late and overbudget and in an industry where margins are very thin, you know, if you get it wrong, it goes very, very wrong. and that was the problem and that, obviously, combined with the level of bet has meant that the company is not now in the position it needed 300 million or so. it sold to continue trading. and the banks that had previously lent money to it were not willing to throw good money after that >> can you tell us whether this is a sector-specific issue or whether this is something specific to carillion, i just want if other companies in the sector are suffering from a similar type of situation? >> yeah, the sector as a whole is subject to this risk. that's because the same margins

are thin and also the kind of projects that we're talking about are very lonengthy in nature and subject to delays. there's always that risk there i guess it's a question that any industry, if you're overcompetitive, you end up making losses because you're not writing a profitable business. so, i think that risk is there it's interesting if you look across what's happening in the stock market today there's quite a few construction markets rising on the news of carillion's decline because i guess the assumption is they will pick up that work >> and per simmsimmon is up with unpaid bills with the middle east, with the wells cup

construction, ongoing issue between qatar and the boards of carillion. do you have a view on how that particular contract is going to pay out? >> well, we don't know, obviously, we're in the very early stages of carillion's administration there are will be different stakeholders and how they go about sourcing the contracts out. in terms of the asset, i mean, there are creditors, of course, suppliers, work in the pension scheme, of course. in terms of the contract it means, of course, there's a lot of detail in those contracts that will probably determine how they play out. for instance, carillion is involved in a lot of joint ventures with other companies. and it may be that those companies do have contingencies in place which account for the

kind of administration in the event they happen, they therefore step into the breach on certain terms >> senior analyst here joining us carlisle is ready to make a takeover offer for the embattled british firm gkm shares in the company had a record high last friday after it rejected a 7 billion pound bid gkn said it was undervaluing its business shareholders will hold a meeting to discuss the deal. i want to talk a little bit about chinese markets. a bit of a roller coaster session. while today, new record highs, that quickly changed in the afternoon session. as you can see, the zen zen ended 8% lower hang seng suffering.

a lot of that on the back of the ten-year bond yield move it came up in q4 of last year. as the government continues to push on the leveraging measures we've seen that corporate bond space. chinese yield is above that 4% mark and up 50 bases points in the last 15 months and that is continuing to bite when it comes to the overall index. what's interesting here the zen zen composite which tends to be the most equivalent to the russell 2000 the smaller caps have suffered more than shanghai and hang seng definitely the future for equity trading. and whether or not the bonds move higher could impact the equity output from here. while that's been going on in china, the s&p has seen its

strongest start of the year since 2003 climbing 4.2% in the first nine trading days of 2018 giet despite going up in stock, equity still a best bet. >> for the listeners, even at 50 years old, the majority of those assets should be in equities no question, we've had a dramatic runup in equities and yet over a 30 or 40-year period of time, even at this entry level, i believe you'll do better in equities than bonds. >> we want to bring in richard champion, the executive chief officer. to join in the discussion, interesting thing about s&p, up 4.5% already to date some analysts have factored up 5% upside for all of 2018. so, boom, we've hit it already. >> first of all, if analysts had seen that 4.5% from last year

they would still have 5% what we expect to see a bit more volatility this year than last year, particularly what with what we're seeing with interest rates rising with economic growth being so robust we might get the number in hikes >> how many more increases do you expect this year, the fed has said they may go as much as three or four and the market is skeptical? >> the market is still pretty skeptical, the fed has said three. we wouldn't be surprised if we saw more than that our core position is we think there will be three, but we think the risks are we may go up to four. >> what are the other risks for 2018, are we talking things like inflation? >> the key remains inflation it's been very subdued we saw recent inflation numbers from europe which look pretty

good, indeed from the states as well that's the lion that hasn't roared yet in this recovery, this expansion if we do see high irinflatinflae could see interest rates going up higher than expect. most value classes aren't set for that scenario. >> when you hear about companies like wells fargo, at&t, most recently walmart even though they announced the layoffs, does that make you more confident that we're going to see inflationary pressures, particularly wage inflationary pressures? >> i think that is the case. we've really seen very few signs of wage inflation. you have to look hard in the numbers to try to find it in the best qualified area of the market seeing the more widespread moves, the passing of tax reform to consumers does mean for us that we could see that payroll inflation coming through >> over the weekend, president trump had a conversation, and

they talked about china and nafta. is trade protection something else they're worried about >> that's the second of the threats. given that trump has only managed to get tax reform through and we've got the midterms coming up he may go after this trade agenda, more aggressively than he has to date, even though he's extracted or renegotiating that already. and that could act as a trigger to volatility and equity markets. >> i just wonder how you play it then you do think there's upside from here, obviously there are risk it's, potential globalization risks. what sort of markets get compose exposure to them >> first of all, we want to be in, but not fully inload we're late in the cycle. the expectations are reasonably high, the earnings are coming

through. given the strength of the economy and the fact that earnings are coming through, we do want exposure we want to be moderate in his exposure and to be comfortable with things we've done so well, that may be technology and some defensive areas and financial to us, at this stage we like a good bet. >> financials since 20 07, it's been a bit of trade because of tax reform do you wonder if it may be too much consensus >> no we're not worried. we think that the gently rising bond deals, so long as the bond curve remains quite steep that financials remain a good place to be. >> if you happen to have views on anything we said or he said

so far, don't hesitate to e-mail us @streetsigns cnbc.com you can direct me directly @willem marx for production of the a380 hangs in the balance find out more about that, after this break your friend @just_marea. you like her. she's really good at social media. she buys stocks in companies that "stand for something." you like her. she's always up on the latest trends. she got in early on the whole goat yoga thing. and her sunsets are always #nofilter. you like her. but you'd like her better if you made more money than she does. don't get mad at @just_marea. get eátrade. having mplaque psoriasise is not always easy.

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welcome back to "street signs. the head of sales at airbus john leahy, he says the company will shut down production at its a380 superjumbo jets if it fails to strike a fresh deal with the emirates the announcement came after the company announced year end tally 1,109 aircraft that puts us ahead of boeing we're joined on the phone by marc pha value, he's

in paris, marc, we talked about the airbus numbers since december, that's some achievement. but does that really matter? >> well, i believe that the deals that were made in 2017 were great, because they were really above what they were targeting. and the orders that they registered in 2017 are clearly remarkable, because they are really bold, what they were expecting for this year. and bold what boeing made for 2017, which is a great achievement for airbus this year >> marc, airbus has paid more than 100 billion euros now to an old missile contract with taiwan they're under investigation of a chief executive, amongst others in austria

they're looking to settle significantly, relates to that same deal in germany they're under investigation in uk and france when it comes to use of middlemen on the aircraft side this kind of corporate issue seems to be widespread and longstandi longstanding is that something they can deal with should investors be worried about it >> well, i was quite worried about this airbus. but the good thing about they are solving them quite quickly and with quite low amounts so, i believe in the short term and long term, it should give more validity to it. the economcompany. and it should also improve inside the company and the governance is also trying to set -- to get airbus

past this situation. >> marc, i have a question for the net orders for the year, they've looked at 1,000 planes, 75% were done in december. that's very, very backloaded to the last month of the year does that imply they may have had to do a lot of these sales at a discount? and if so, how deep of a discount you can expect? >> well, the rush that they make in december is quite usual for airbus they did the same in 2016. and while i believe that theyological have to deal with this in t the future as well in 2017, they've had issues with engine, we engine deliveries so, they had to postpone some deliveries and this might also happen in the future so, while at least what they

achieved to deliver, above what they planned, and there are some more to come, because some more a320 are waiting for output and the engine so, it's quite a good situation for others >> marc, you cover aerospace and defense. you're in paris. we have seen this compensation deal with taiwan related to the company airbus, we've seen those involved in payments to taiwan the defense industry notoriously lacking in transparency. we're seeing that with more recent deals as well is that ever going to change >> it is clear that at airbus, they are trying to improve the situation. but, you know, in this business, it's a lot of about

relationships with governments and it is hard to tell that it will -- it will stop in the future this might very well be, a situation that we will never end. >> that is marc laubel, an expect analyst at alpha. and we've seen citi bank report its stocks and others to report later in the week wells fargo and jpmorgan posted on friday. one of the keys that the u.s. is looking for the recent tax overall. rate hikes will also be another consideration. falling trading revenue is also a concern. richard champion, the deputy

chief officer is still with us actually, this ties into what we were just talking about about financials as a sector, the highest since 2007 many people are bullish going into this year you do like financials >> yes, i do >> do you have a preference for retail banks versus investment banks? >> i actually prefer retail over investment banks at the moment rising rates will give them those kicker as margins improve and positioning is actually better for banks >> do you draw a distinction between u.s. and european banks at this sector and why >> we do, we believe that the europe is lagging at the moment. but more opportunities in the european banks than the u.s. we still like the u.s.

financials but we prefer the european financials. more generally, we like value own growth in this stage as well >> can you tell us about specific names you're looking at in the european sectors? >> the bank sector, ing and pnpb >> money is still cheap. which sectors do you expect to see consolidation? >> i think it's very much spread across the market. there are opportunities. we saw an opportunistic bid for the uk i think you're liking to see look for underperforming companies in general but from a secular point of view, in the long run, european banks again could see some sort of consolidation if we see the political moves we've seening from germany and france come to fruition >> do you think that opens up

the sector to more conciliation then >> it's a very, very long-term thing, that kind of conciliation the fact that the european banks still remain pretty much national banks there's some exceptions but many remain national banks. when you think of what they did before the financial crisis, we may see more of that in the years to come. >> with the financials, you can't ignore u.s. financials and not talk about rising interest rates. how do you feel, do you expect that towards the end of the year, ecb might start preparing for markets with higher yields? >> i think that's exactly it, it's about talking the talk at the moment for ecb, rather than actually walking the walk. i think we'll see more talk about withdrawal of qe >> richard, thank you for giving us your views on financials and equity markets that was richard champion,

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm willem marx. >> and i'm joanna breseczky. the government steps in save government contracts airbus edges out order 2017. and the european plane makers said the 380 is finished and a selloff in chinese equity splits investors away from record highs in asia after u.s. stocks logged the best start to the year since 2003 and worries grow amid an spd

rebelli rebellion, after the party reaches a deal with angela merkel conservatives >> right it is monday morning. it's martin luther king day. the u.s. is out today. do you know what monday is >> does have it anything to do with the weather >> it's scientifically proven, today is the most depressing day of the year. so, tomorrow will be better. >> yes, that's right >> next, let's take a look at how european markets are faring this morning yes, in line with the monday morning theme, it's wet across the board. all trading equal. xetra dax and ftse 100 the main story for ftse 100 is the yen entered in administration with over 1.5 billion sterling worth of debt

switching to foreign exchange, more roles for the u.s. dollar it was down 1% again on friday you can see across the board, anything versus u.s. dollar is implying that the dollar will continue this mode of weakness so, euro dollar is an interesting one. we have broken higher. this was teetering below 1.20 a week ago and broken through new high levels analysts say now we're through the 1.22 mark that paves the way for 1.26 dollar yen that currency is down 1.4% and interesting in the past, a stronger dollar yen would have been associate with a good performance in the nikkei. but recently, we've seen th correlation breaking down as the yen strengthens, the uk has

continued to do well and the big story, of course, is cable. look at that currency. up at 1.3760 this is through the highs that we saw on the brexit referendum time and trading at around 1.3660 analysts are saying, 1.3830 is the one to watch paving the way for that as that currency continues to move hi higher ford has announced $11 billion investment in electric vehicles by 2022 the automaker had previously said it would spend $4.5 on the electric vehicles over the next five years moving away from sedans and internal combustion engine the ceo jim hackett told phil

lebeau that they focus on technology >> the technology that's in these vehicles and adaptive systems is really changing the design of what people are going to drive in the future plus, as i talked about last week at ces, we have the prospect of the ambient environment getting much smarter. this is the internet of things the marriage of smart parking and smart car is going to have people save time finding a parking space in the future. >> but you've heard the critics, the critics have said we don't see a concrete offer from ford some of the competitors saying we're doing x wevehicle, and fo seems to be searching, if you will when do you see those concrete products come into fruition, another year, two years, how far down the road? >> well, we're really active this quarter, we're announcing a test

we're not telling yet for the vehicle. you know about signing up with companies in the industry. you know about one, domino's pizza. we believe, phil, the markets for the future are both moving people and moving goods. it's not clear which one is going to be the biggest. for ford strategy, it's to have a platform to do both. >> are you telling those fans of ford be patient here, you're going to see some offerings. you're not going to see a big to-do? you'll see a little here and there? >> i don't think we're actually behind i think what has happened in the computer industry the drama of what the science can do has people believing in the magic that isn't fully realized yet. there's nobody at the level of performance that i expect we'll be at when we're there so i don't feel like we're behind at all. it's so good it doesn't need a driver >> which then brings under the

question, when do you get recognized for those efforts from an investor standpoint? a lot of other industries, they're getting rewarded, at least the per session ception ig rewarded when does that kick in for ford? >> yeah, that's coming we've made a huge investment in what is deep learning. this is something in the last three years that is brand-new. when you talk about machine learning, hedeep learning is something more intense ford's got a really good handle on it. you're going to seal revenue come with some of these partnerships that's started. >> when does that happen, the next year, two years? i'm not asking for financial guidance, but when do investors say i see it rolling >> one reason i don't want to put the number out there, or the date that's, frankly, going to come as i'm confident that the products and markets allow

let me give you a quick example, if any of us put a vehicle in one of he's ride-hailing companies today it has to bork in a geo fit space it can't navigate out of a very narrow place the revenue is going to be de minimis early. i'm saying ford has nothing to worry about in terms of lagging there. our technology is exceptional. >> now, cnbc jay gray is in detroit, michigan, nice and early for jay. jay, i have to ask you this $11 billion investment from ford that is a sizable amount that's a big increase from the original $5.4 they pledged in electric vehicles is this all about the race for electric vehicles to possess and produce the most efficient electric vehicle car, is that the buzzword at the auto joe

>> reporter: yeah, juwana, i would expect that's the full case but it's just a general push for technology, a big deal in the industry not only with the autonomous cars you were just talking about, the driverless cars, but making the traditional cars more like your cell phone and laptop experience with apps and other keyboard industries on the dash which are more user friendly, if you will just something that drivers can be more in tune with and connect with ore that's a lot of what you're hearing with this year's show. all of that talk about high tech i want to tell you what perhaps a showstopper will be. pick-up trucks pickup trucks a big deal, driving the industry, several reveals as far as the trucks are concerned at this year's show. in fact, they're bringing back the midsize or smaller pickup trucks those are really the big sellers

here, if there's any dropoff in the industry, an industry that has shown sales over 17 million units for the last three years the strongest three-year stretch they've ever had it's sedan sales sedan sales are dropping off significantly. analysts tell us the drivers are switching to the suv marketplace. a marketplace, jomana, that is expanding right now. they're amazing. >> jay gray live at the detroit auto show from nbc news. it's interesting that electric vehicles, still a buzzword there, but the focus is still very much on the pickup troubles as well. >> staying in the u.s. for a long time, i would expect. speaking with the car theme, volkswagen has seen a rise in the figures for 2017 the figure 4.2% for the year

up to 6.2% >> now volkswagen says it plans to investment $3.3 billion in north america over the next three years. the german carmaker is hoping to express new interest in the american market. they will roll out a four-door as part of that effort our cnbc colleague phil lebeau sat down also with vw's passenger car's chair, at the show to ask him about the initiative to rebuild after the scandal? >> i think we have a long way to go it will take months or years to recover the confidence of our customers. i think we're working hard to show that we are diligent. that we are committed to this. i think we have a good product cadence to come when it comes to

bumper-to-bumper warranty. we're focusing more on the necessities of the american customer, when it comes to the look of the car, the interior. so, we're doing a lot really to get back to a position as volume use for here in america. this will be a long way, long journey. probably will take us ten years. >> really, another ten years until you feel like we have come back to where we want to be? >> well, we have a long way to go we gained a little market share in 2017. we were around 2%. but we need 5% to really be a volume manufacturer here it's a position that we maintain i think we have the capabilities if you listen to the american customer, if you take america serious, i think it can be achieved >> did this strength of this auto marker overjaall surprise you? from the standpoint, you've been in this business a long time this is one of the longest runs

we've had of growing or sustained sales? >> well, you know, america remains really the big car market of the world. americans love cars. now many families have two or three cars >> that's right. >> you wouldn't find such conditions in many places of the world. and i don't see alternatives to cars and all want to keep that fleet of cars fresh to technology. i think the car market could stay a little bit longer, at those highs. we don't expect a huge growth from where we are, but i think the market could be sustainable. >> final question, as a company, you guys have said, look autonomous, like every automaker is the future. and we will be there how far into the future before we see volkswagen out with a truly self-driving car in the mass market? >> yeah. you know, we don't go the way think the car without the steering wheel, you know, it

will be a revolutionary pause. the car will take over in certain drive sections, in traffic jams, probably on the open highways. and you will have to take over in more complicated positions. those cars will come to market starting in '21, '22 until we really see the driverless cars no steering wheel, we think it will take longer >> that what the chairman of volkswagen passenger car division talking to our colleague phil lebeau in dedetroit. switching from german industry to german politician where senior members of politics have said they oppose the parliament deal struck with angela merkel's cdu. hoping to convince colleagues not to approve grand coalition

talks with them. leaders on both sides alreadial agreed on a blueprint, you may remember, our colleague joins us down the line from frankfurt annette, who are the leaders and how influential are they >> reporter: actually, they're quite influential, you can say it's more or less the left circle inside the social democrats who are opposing any grand coalition or also opposing the results that we have seen from last week we have for example, the leader of hesson, in frankfurt is in. opposing those results also the vice chairman of the associate democrats opposing what we have reached in berlin early on friday last week. so, there are a couple of really strong voices out there saying

this is not good enough. at the same time, we, of course have others like a very prominent figure inside the social democrats who are saying all of these critics should just shut up because they have reached a good compromise with a lot of parties so, you see it's a lot of infighting inside the social democrats and they don't have a lot of party discipline, traditionally. and that shows its best right now. what happens during the course of this week, they're trying to convince everybody that this is actually a good result and there are also a lot of topics they have been promoting inside the reached agreement, so far. and that on sunday, the delegates should actually vote in favor of a grand coalition. in order to be able to move on but whether this is going to happen or not, we don't know one of the harshest critics is the young socialists, so to say,

the group of young local social democrats. their leaders say, what happens on sunday is completely open nobody really knows what's going to happen. so far, the recent opinion poll, saying those who actually voted in favor of democrats, they want to have a grand coalition. it really is a kind of moving mix here in germany, when it comes to what's going to happen with forming a government. sunday will be a big day, whether the social democrats vote in favor of a grand coalition or not >> no doubt. thanks very much for bringing us the latest from germany. all eyes will be on that key vote on sunday commenting on the conversation you can tweet us @streetsigns, you can tweet us separately.

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welcome back to "street signs. u.s. president donald trump says he's open to making a deal to protect immigrants brought to the country as children illegally. trump said he is, quote, ready, willing and able to make a deal to save recipients of daca, the deferred action for childhood arrivals this comes after a report that he reportedly used a derogatory term last week trump had this response to a reporter asking him if he's a racist >> no, i am not a racist i am the least racist person you ever heard that, i can tell you. >> the federal communications commission said hawaii lacked, quote, reasonable safe guards. the warning went out to the

entire island state and understandably caused widespread panic. the governor of hawaii apologized for the error saying a staffman had pressed the wrong button hawaii's alert system as tensions simmer over the use of nuclear weapons. >> you can imagine how terrifying >> terrifying. chinese stock markets fell at the end of the toe with the shanghai composite happening an 11-day winning streak. the zen zen index closed lower with banking and stocks saw gains but those were offset by resources and industrial shares. joining us on the line, the managing director of frontier strategy group martin martina, i have to ask you about this, there's been a lot of talk about the chinese bond deals moving up 50 spaces, people

getting nervous about that in context to u.s. treasuries, it isn't that big of a move so why are they worried about that? >> i think it's really striking a balance between making sure there's nudge lienough liquidit financial situation and then starting to tackle that financial risk which is very considerable and one of the concerns in terms of future outlook for chinese growth and of course for companies within the chinese economy as well. they've highlighted three key economic battles for 2018, curbing poe solution acurb curbing pollution and reducing poverty. but in concern with how sustainable is this growth, while at the same time, we're expecting to see much more tightening within the financial system, combined with efforts by the chinese central bank to also

ensure there's enough liquidity in the system. >> so, in most respects, it's considered to be a managed leveraging it doesn't going to have much of an impact on growth trajectory speaking of growth, this week, we will get the chinese numbers. the expectation is that the numbers will jump a little bit what have you pencilled in for the gdp and other numbers coming up thursday? >> great question, we're expecting as you said a softer landing for the chinese economy. and we're expecting that average will dumb from 6.4%. and down from 6.48 and making sure that growth is actually quite high was a key political priority but at this point, the focus of the government really is about making sure the self-lining in the chinese economies will manage and focus on the quality of

growth, rather than just pure growth numbers so, what we're watching is not just the numbers but also the target gdp growth for the year if we see that going down a little bit, that's a positive sign that the government is not willing to boost growth at any cost we know that cost of translating to risk at this stage, but is really focused on making sure that risk is reduced within the economy. >> towards the end of the year, president xi laid out a vision whereby he imagined china to be one of the superpowers also from a political context. how much of that is contingent to chinese markets being opened up to international investors here >> yeah, i think them being open to foreign investment is still a priority for the chinese government but of course there are more strings attached now but that also has to come with trying to support and stimulate the private sector within china which actually accounts for most of the employment in the economy. it ultimately should take more

of that growth burden that enterprises have been driving over the past few years. so they're trying to strike a balance between making sure that foreign investment actually supports their internal priorities but, of course, they're not looking in any shape or form to deter foreign investors from being in that market it just comes with more strings attached and more conditions in the economy and the market is large enough that they can actually push their way around. >> thank you very much we're going to have to leave it there. that was the managing director of research at frontier strategy group. just a quick recap, what's happening with carillion, the company's shares have been reduced. with immediate eck aftffect aftt failed to secure support we've had statements from the government, the group will continue, that will be thanks to its joint venture partners

involved in the back for a number of profit areas for carillion, the company employs 43,000 people. the party here in the uk saying those jobs should be a major priority for the company >> that's right. 45,000 people globally 20,000 people in the uk. those are very big numbers but we said it's martin luther king day so there are no u.s. markets trading. but let's take a quick look at european markets you can see across the board, it's a grim day, xetra dax leading, down almost 0.3%. ftse down 0.1% >> i'm willem marx, "worldwide exchange" isomg nt. cinupex u l. he's one of those guys who always smells good. his 5 o'clock shadow is always at 5 o'clock. you like him. your mom says he's done really well for himself.

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