yours. good morning, it is 11:00 a.m. on the senate floor where a vote that could end the government shutdown is an hour away it's 11:00 a.m. on wall street "squawk alley" is live ♪

good monday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i'm with courtney reagan and jon fortt at post nine we want to get you to latest or the latest on our government shutdown we have more information on what the next hour could bring. >> it's going to be a busy one republicans and the senate are meeting behind closed doors and that follows a meeting on the democratic side that took place last hour. they're holding the cards close to their vest ahead of that key 12:00 vote they're going to be taking up a bill short term bill to funneled the government they failed on friday except for two key differences. its a week shorter, only goes to february 8th instead of the 16th it carries a pledge from the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell to bring a bipartisan immigration deal to the floor for a vote if one is inked that is a significant difference that has taken place over the last few days. senator susan collins, the republican from maine, told reporters earlier this morning though that she had concerns

like many other centrist senators from both sides of the aisle that the assurances if possible needed to be stronger >> i think it will be helpful if the language were a little bit stronger because the level of tension is so high but you have to remember that initially the majority leader was not talking about this issue. so he has moved. >> so the issue she brings up at the end there is going to be key as we see how this vote plays out. we heard from multiple aides on the republican side that republicans feel like they have made significant compromises in even pledging to bring this bipartisan immigration deal and not just republicans but senator mcconnell specifically they believe the ball is in the democrats' court to do something and move toward them so we'll see where this ends up

and what the democrats decide to do in just about an hour carl >> kayla, we'll be coming back to you kayla tausche she's on the hill. we're joined by liz ann saunders and current american action forum president douglas holtz-eaken joins us let's start with the framework that kayla brought us. does it feel like that might work >> yeah. that looks promising the basic issue has been how do you handle the negotiations over the immigration issue? it doesn't seem sensible to have those negotiations with the government shut. but the democrats want an assurance that those negotiations have an end point if they're going to continue without having any laef wrath fr leverage from the shutdown you can't really vote until you get an agreement there has never been an agreement. we'll see if that transpiers as well >> at what point does the shutdown become a market issue, the markets seem to be shrugging

it off it is a matter of days a matter of poll showing whether it's perceived as being one party's fault or the other >> it can be a matter of days. you do have to shave off gdp the longer it goes but if you look at the history of shutdowns back to the 1970s, actually the market has done fairly well during the shutdown. and maybe there's an interesting irony that the fact that actually the selloff if you get one tends to happen after washington gets back to work following a shutdown but it, you know, it could wreak havoc with the actual incoming data which might be a factor for the market more so than an actual impact on the economy >> that's true it's hard to get government data doug, what about the impact with the irs and the tax reform that we're going through right now if your corporate executive and you have questions do you have anyone to reach out to call. >> i think this is a big issue

for a couple of days they have flexibility of using their ability to reallocate funds, to keep folks working on both implementing and answering questions about the new tax law. that can't last forever. and they do need to get some funding into those agencies where they have a big ticket agenda and a big stake in getting it done. i think that's something republicans ares cou cognizant . >> earnings season is cloudy because of so much uncertainty related to the tax law i think earnings estimates for companies that have issued tax rate burden guidance are going up faster than those that have not. and now we got the irs going to be slower to give guidance on at least repatation could this muddy earnings season or not >> i think it probably does. i think the earnings season in terms of the impact on tax reform was already set to be a little bit muddy

i think some companies are a little more comfortable talking about it at this point some still have questions. and they want to be careful before they express that to analysts you have seen a bump up to expectations for calendar year 2018 to the tune of 4% so in october this thompson reuters data, 11%. you're now up to 15% i think the question becomes does the expectations bar get set higher than the reality of what's going to unfold we don't have an answer to that question yet as i think about things that possibly could cause some volatility that, could be one of them >> doug, what do you make of -- >> i want to echo -- if i kosco, i want to echo something i think the possibility of not getting the fourth quarter gdp data on thursday is actually a big problem. there's a question of how much genuine acceleration took place late last year both in profitability and in underlying gdp growth you can't really interpret where we are right now without having a better read on that. that could be a big issue. >> doug, i wonder what you make

of the trump administration's start to 2018. on the one hand we have the changes in tax law that so many were looking forward to. on the other hand, we have the shutdown which some see as being part of the follow-through to the president's comments in private meetings on immigration. stability wise, predictability wise, how are they doing in 2018 >> i think if you step back and look at the larger arc, the important thing is running on the tax code and the reform they got and the strengthst dme go o economy. they want to talk about those things they're not. i think is not a step that's in the longer term interest and they ought to find a way to make a graceful exit and get back to the business >> at what point if you're an investor and following along with the political headlines should you begin to get worried? we talked a little bit in the beginning about how there is some productivity shaved off gdp. although if we don't get the gdp number that, is hard to tell at what point should you begin

to be a little concerned about what you're seeing and how impacts your investments >> you know, it's hard to sachlt we' say. we had shutdown that's went two and three weeks. that doesn't mean it's going to be the same situation at this point. in terms of just general partisan conflict which is obviously high, interestly if you look at a formal measure of that, the philly fed has partisan conflict index. you look at various stages where it's been and the history of the data the best performance for the market is actually come when partisan conflict is highest it may tie in to sent. as a contrarian indicator. so if anything, it may actually help to bring off the boil some of the sentiment indicators that have started to show real excessive optimism that may not be a bad thing, maybe preventing the kind of meltup scenario that is unfolding until last week. >> yeah. the bull-bearish spreads we saw were remarkable. we'll see about that

liz anne, doug, we appreciate it we'll see you soon and now to the store, a store on the other side of the country. amazon's new cashier free amazon go stores opening in seattle our diedra bosa is there >> this comes after a year's delay. there was a the lo of interest from media and locals alike. the line stretched back half of this block everyone got in. we were one of the first customers. it works like this you simply walk in, you scan your amazon go app as you enter. take bhafr you want off the shelves and then just walk out it's pretty simple for the customer on the back end, amazon is ugz t using the technology you pick up or put back and it charges you afterward. but, jon, as you said, in my case, it did not charge me for everything i bought six items, cookies,

water bottle, snap peas. i also got this yogurt when i got the receipt, this was not on it. so i don't know if that's considered shoplifting i did tell the amazon folks that are around here, they said it's fine i can have it. it does raise some really important questions about the technology remember, the opening of this store was delayed for about a year reportedly due to some tech nick logical glitches. that's what makes this store so ground breaking. it could be a real game changer for the grocery and retail industry so we'll be here throughout the day. i talked to other customers. everyone else seems to be charged for everything they picked up. if you look up at the ceiling inside the store, you see it is filled with cameras and sensors, all of this technology but did it not record me picking up this yogurt and if that's happening on a big bigger basis, remember that they have 500 whole food stores that could be a lot of money lost amazon says they're focused on this one store and don't have

plans to rollout the technology to whole foods you can see it would be a huge game changer for the entire industry if they were to roll it out on a larger scale. first, we'll have to see if it actually works guys >> yeah. thanks it could be a margin killer, couldn't it? >> definitely. >> a big portion of the biggest portion, i think, of walmart's business is grocery. >> it is >> the margins are thin to begin w you can't afford to be giving away three, four dollar things of yogurt. >> i would imagine they would really have to amp up the security on things like meat and baby form lashgs razors if those are the things -- those are the things that unfortunately are shoplifted the most. some of those have higher price point. they say they don't have plans to roll it out come on. why else are they doing this just for fun >> it is interesting to see who can copy this even if they wanteded to at this point. >> oh, yeah. imagine how much time and effort and energy went into all of the things trying to figure out the

pattern of shoppers in the store and how quickly i would just be curious how quickly it can sort of take into account when i take the water bottle off the shelf, change mind and put it back. what if i put it in the wrong place. how does it account for that that is interesting. and the fact she was able to grab an item she didn't pay for. >> apple tried to self she can yoult at apple stores years back you were supposed to be able to use your phone for some reason, they don't encourage people to do that anymore. i don't know what happened they have real people hand willing new the store. >> yeah. it's such a durous experiment. if we go there or if we don't. some consumers may feel uncomfortable with it, not having a person there to check them out >> i do. i like having my receipt making sure everybody knows everything is paid for >> yep >> who is there to take my coupon it's we have any? >> sure. >> i don't know. anyway all right. shares of twitter are slipping on reports that they offered the ceo job to twitter's coo terms have not been solidified

an announcement is likely in the next few days. last year the ceo mike cagney resigned over reports of sexual harassment a lot of interesting thoughts here, right, to go to sofi perhaps ahead an ipo, taking i take a big ceo job >> joanne bradford still there, i'm surprised there is not more conversation about her being a potential ceo. and one wonders whether this is pressure on twitter to consider who the next ceo of twitter might be >> right something we talked about for a long time. >> when we come back this morning, a lot more on the stalemate in washington means for your markets and money plus, $20 billion in drug industry deals announced today a lot of it catch. a lot of moves on the move directv has been rated number one in customer satisfaction over cable for 17 years running. but some people still like cable. just like some people like pre-shaken sodas. having their seat kicked on an airplane.

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two deals were announced today totaling $20 billion last year saw 12 public deals in biotech for a combined value of about $50 billion. today's deals for $11.6 billion and cellgene for $9 billion, those are boosting biotech stocks and investors hopes for more deals the etfs both up to day, 2% for

the nasdaq biotech etf and 4% for the xbi the sharesst buyers of the companies are not doing as well. particularly sanofi. investors question the valuation it's paying for bioverative. still the match making speculation has begun. big pharma and biotech have a lot of cash to spend from gilead and amgen to pfizer and merck. baird research breaking out overseas versus u.s. cash in light of the tax overhaul here many signaled greater spending many investors expect and hope more deals who are the most likely targets? rbc took a survey last month and the results fall into the pattern we see frequently in biotech deals. companies that make drugs for cancer it could mean $2 billion and $10 billion. there is clovis oncology, kooma

biotech, blue bird bio, a cancer and rare diseases and novexis with a focus on rare diseases. a lot of speculation going on in biotech. people are hoping that 2018 is a big dearly year. >> also, meg, just on your beat, there had been some reports that there would be interruptions to flu monitoring you're saying not true >> no. it sounds like the flu is going to continue the federal flu monitoring the reports getting from states and counties there was some concern as the severe flu season goes on we wouldn't have the cdc monitoring it but they are continuing with the activities even as other things are not going on. >> all right good to know thank you, meg meg terrell at h.g we'll have b of a's moynihan and schwartzman and bridge water's ray dalio and a lot more that starts tomorrow on "squawk alley.

facebook's announced plans to rank new sources by trustworthiness in an effort to battle misinformation. theres a lot of controversy around this and other measures that it and alphabet are taking, private search engine duck duck go ceo tweeted, "promoting trustworthy news sources is a reasonable idea. relying solely on crowd sourcing to determine trust, though, on making trust scores individualized are both poor implementations that will create more negative unintended consequences." he joins us now at post nine g gabriel, good morning. of course you have a duck in this fight to modify a common phrase duck duck go makes money through ads in search and sometimes when people buy something, say, i search for a 4k tv and buy one, you get a cut. is that right? >> yeah.

it's maj you need to track people to make money in search we just base it on the key word you type in. you type in car, you get a car ad all this tracking that's going on add facebook and making the internet creepy, we don't need to do that we stick to web search. >> they are making kind of thousands of times more money than you are so perhaps you can make more money if you track people. >> not really in web search. really, all this kind of creepiness that people are feeling now is because of these huge data profiles that google and facebook are making on people and there really is for two purposes not really on google search, the use for the ads that follow you around are hyper targeted. they're at best annoying and worst, causing political upheavel like the russian election and they're using it to bias results on their own sites to kind of like make you click on things they think you're likely to click on like a filter bubble and filtering out things you don't think you click on duckduckgo is an an alternative.

>> so it's direct to consumer. what do i buy essentially? >> we hope you should be able to get a simple and seamless solution that can block all this hidden tracking going on the internet you can go to private search like duckduckgo and click off to say a news site and block all that hidden facebook and google tracking going on. >> so if your new year's resolution is to fix fiscal cliff and you had this news issue, fake news, misleading prop ganlda, h propaganda, how would you do it? >> i'm skeptical that facebook is going to fix itself the reason is that core business model of hyper targeted advertising that you said they're making all this money off of, to really curve either of the problems, you have to lower that amount of targeting >> so if you were mark zuckerberg, what would do you? >> i would -- so, the government should and i hope mark zuckerberg will do this too is stop combining things like instagram data with facebook

data facebook is also combining credit card data so the off line purchases with the online purchases. that's how they're making the huge data profiles the core result is to stop combining all that data. >> that's not going to happen. >> that's why i'm skeptical. without the government stepping in with some regulation, for example, the ftc could be more aggressive at blocking these acquisitions that strengthen the data monopolies. >> are humans viable alternative to al toal to al gore ridges? >> the crowd sourcing as we have seen has created unintended consequences you need to point to a nonprofit body of journalist that's could identify trustworthy news sources. >> then you have to identify the trustworthy journalists, they have to be the ones that is part of this committee. but what if you're a consumer and okay giving up data because you get something in return? that's what a the love consumers

say. we're in this world. this is not going to change. as long as i no he that i'm getting some ben filefit, it's . >> people don't realize how much tracking and monitoring is going on and the negative consequences like the filter bubble and so 24% of americans we found last year are now taking significant actions to curb this negative practices and protect their privacy online it's become a mainstream issue >> 76% are not >> yeah. >> from duckduckgo, that is one measure that people can take switching search engines thank you for joining us >> thank you >> europe is going to close in a few moments. seema mody is at post nine >> it's a win for german chancellor afrpg chancellor angela merkel she is close to joining into talks. she's been leading without a proper government since september. european financials in focus today, ubs reporting earnings

down by $3 billion write down. they're raising the dividend up 8% from last year. speaking of banks, take a look at barclay's moving higher. if t is reporting that hedge funneled tiger global has invested more than $1 billion in the british bank that is a 2.5% stake barclay's struggled to turn around the stock is down about 8% over the past one year. french pharma ferm sanofi buying a biotech company for $11.6 billion. we have seen $170 billion of across border deals between the united states and european companies in 2017. guys, back to you. >> thank you very much when we come back, about 30 minutes to go until that senate vote that could end the shutdown stanford university director of domestic policy lanhee chen joins us to weigh n and the s&p 500 on the track for the best january since 1997 the dow is just about flat a this point "squawk alley" back right after this

hello, everyone. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. japan has spotted a north korean ship obtaining oil in defiance of united nation's sanctions a patrol plane spotted the tanker on saturday saddled up to another tanker with a registry in the dominican republic. tokyo officials conducting a missile attack drill to prepare that city for the possibility of a north korean strike. 350 people participated.

and when the alarm sounded, they took cover in underground locationors buildings. it is the first such drill to take place in that city. iran's state television says the navy kicked off the two day annual drill near the straits. a third of all oil traded by sea passed through that waterway and it has been the scene of previous confrontations between the u.s. and iran. a new swedish study tracking 50,000 men from their late neten to early 06's saying drinking alcohol at a young age can liver problems later in life those who consume two or more drinks a day have the highest risk its no the clear if that same risk exists in women that's our news update this hour back downtown to "squawk alley." courtney, back to you. >> thank you very much, sue. appreciate it. the senate expected to hold a vote in 30 minutes from now. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell putting forward a continuing resolution that is said to include assurances on immigration that may find

bipartisan support we'll have to wait and see though, of course. joining us now is lanhee chen. he is research fellow. lanhee, thank you for joining us we'll know 30 minutes from now, got knot going to ask you to handicap it, but if this is a cr, are we going to go through this all over again in two weeks and then two weeks more after that i mean, don't we really need a long term solution here? >> courtney, this is the cycle we're in you're absolutely right. even if they are able to get the votes necessary to push this out until the eighth of february, we're going to have another discussion right before the eighth of february about keeping the government open. because remember, what senate majority leader mitch mcconnell said is he'll proceed to discussion on immigration only if the government is open. so if the government shuts down again because the democrats don't feel there is sufficient assurance, we'll be right back here again this is noi what to run a budget it noes way to run the federal government >> the longer that this drags on, if you are a democrat and you were initially willing to

compromise, do you become less or more inclined to compromise the longer it goes on if the blame gets shifted to the democratic party >> i think that is exactly dynamic that democrats have to be concerned about for right now, the american public might look at this and say, look, republicans seem to be in charge of the white house, the senate and the house why can't they get it done the longer this goes on, it's going to be clear the reason why the government remains shut down is because democrats want to have a discussion about immigration. and the longer that goes on, that dynamic is going to be problematic particularly for more moderate democrats or democrats who are up for re-election this year. already we saw democrats like heidi highcamp of north dakota come over to vote for the l.a. cr or to express support for the last cr. the question is going to be how many more democrats start to cave because the long they are goes, i do think the more difficult it is for them >> lanhee, this immigration mess has to get figured out in february though, right it's not as if they have a lot

of time to play with >> they don't. so, you know, march fifth is the absolute deadline by which the president said that the executive relief would end so certainly this does have to be dealt with in the month of february the question is will daca end up going as part of a larger deal on immigration this is such an attractive issue. you think about all the different times that the congress has tried to deal with immigration reform each time they failed. there's a reason why this is really hard. democrats feel like if they can push the issue against the government shutdown, they'll get more leverage. but i'm not so sure about that strategy politically in the long run. >> they certainly weren't complaining when the executive order was signed under the obama administration this is part of a swing in the pendulum from what some saw as executive overreach in the last term, right? >> well, right and, look this is an issue that i think all sides, democrats and republicans, immigration advocates and more hard line

immigration folks have always felt the right way to deal with these questions, whether it's the folks that were brought here illegally as children or more broadly the people who are in the u.s. as undocumented imgrarni immigrants the best waive to deal with this is with a permanent solution that deals with the broader questions around immigration reform, border security, the way to deal with how to admit people to the united states based on skills or otherwise. those are the kinds of questions that have to be dealt with so everyone agrees we need a long term legislative fix but members of congress, politics, this gets very, very challenging. and that's why we're right back here again talking about a short term two-week funding solution in return for promise to talk about just the daca piece of immigration. >> and is daca potentially more challenging because president trump himself between different tweets and reports of private meetings has sort of straddled both sides of this issue republicans and democrats may not be exactly sure where he stands when it really comes down to the line on daca. >> right

and this is the argument shuck schumer and the democrats have made negotiating with the president is like negotiating with jell-o. it's very difficult to determine where he is. i do think the process overall would benefit from some greater clarity around where the president stands i do think he said at various points he wants to find a solution for daca and he also said he wants a harder line position on immigration generally. so i do think clarity would be good but given where we are right now, the bigger problem, courtney, is trust there is no trust between the white house and democrats on the hill there is not even a whole lot of trust between republicans and democrats on the hill and that really makes this even harder to resolve. >> politics aside, lanhee, what is the smartest economic argument you've been hearing that relates to immigration in terms of our own national demographics, ability to fill tech jobs, ability to fill service jobs and how should that fit into this conversation we hope to have soon? >> i wish we were talking about the economic argument. that is the right argument to be

having i think there's a couple of elements here. first of all, there are temporary and seasonal needs our economy has that we have to figure out a way to accommodate. that is primarily looking at lower skilled labor. but that's an area certainly where there is a need. then we talk about temporary high-tech, the sort of h 1 b category there i think a the love american companies believe they need more flexibility and more room and then more broadly, do we want an immigration system that is tied to skills which is what the president is arguing for broadly? or do we want one that is more tied to family ties and to other sort of traditional legacy items that have brought people to the united states? it's going to be a balance of all those different issues the economics are quite clear. immigration and a robust system of legal immigration is so important to our economy it's so important to economic growth it would really be additive to the kind of growth we're seeing as a result, i believe, of tax reform and regulatory reform >> so much to consider really. appreciate you being here with

us, lanhee chen >> sticking with the shutdown, there is another sector feeling the impact, energy jackie deangelos joins us. >> the energy patch son several levels from the market perspective, investors rely on government data provided by the eai to make decisions. now previous shutdowns have impacted the release of that data and the delays impacted decisions of traders, hedge funds and the like we reached out to the eia. they said in a statement that eia is continuing normal data collection and publication schedules until further notice they will be able to operate for a short period of time during the lapse in appropriations. there appears to be no impact but a prolonged shutdown could change the circumstances from an energy company perspective, one of the concerns is that the issuance of federal oil and gas drilling permits may be delayed as well those come from the department of interior. that is the bureau of land management on its website, it says in the

event that congress is unable to enact appropriations or a continuing resolution, essentially all activities of the blm will be halted with the exception of law enforcement, emergency response functions and operations necessary to prevent a safety risk to life property and esources so oil and gas permits not included there meantime, oil prices are bouncing around today. around that flat line. a little higher at this point. over $36 a barrel. there is still support bolstered by the imf today, raising the global growth forecast and incorporating the perceived benefits of the new tax plan as well everybody is taking a wait and see approach here. if this is prolonged, it could be more of a problem for the energy patch >> thank you for that. as we go to break this morning, check on xerox shares are up on news that carl icahn pushing the company to explore options including a sale you're looking at a live shot of the senate floor where a vote is about to get undery wain the next 20 minutes or so. stay with us nah. not gonna happen.

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coming up on the halftime report, we're live in washington the senate votes on the shutdown that happening right as we come on the air plus, an kaindicator followed b insiders that hit a new level and making a lot of people rethink the stock strategies we'll talk about that. the home imeprovement stock one analyst says is the way you should improve your portfolio. that crucial vote taking place will be down there live.

>> it's going to be an eventful show we'll see you soon let's get to chicago, get the santelli exchange. good morning, rick >> good morning, carl. like to welcome my guest mark scowsen. thank you for taking the time. >> my pleasure, rick good to be with you. >> all right at the end of the week we're going to take our first look at fourth quarter gdp and there is a good possibility we're going to be putting three quarters back to back to back all with a three handle in the form of three 3% that's like standard definition television you like watching much higher definition you like to look at go insteld -- stead of gdp and gross output is brighter colors. explain and explain what that release was this past friday >> yeah, my pleasure gross output is really a measure of the total spending at all levels of the economy and not just final spending. gdp is the bottom line but the top line of national income

accounting is gross output gdp does not include the supply chain. so the statistics came out on friday for third quarter g.o. and it was up 2.7%, slightly less than gdp but certainly better than second quarter momentum is growing for growing a growing economy. there is no evidence of a recession. however, the fact that g.o., the supply chain is growing slower than gdp is a little bit perplexing we'll see if that trend continues. but with the tax cut -- mark, has that ever occurred in the past >> oh, yeah. >> has that ever run at a discount and give us any clues >> it's a little bit risky that you could be headed into a little bit of trouble, especially if both of them are declining and if g.o. is declining faflter than gdp, that's a sign rev session. but i don't see that happening

we see an expansion going on but it's a good indicator that the fed will probably not raise interest rates as much as we expect because the supply chain, the b-to-b spending is not rising as rapidly. if it's rising faster than gdp that, is risky >> so you don't have a good message for savers that are still after a decade looking to try to parlay some type of investment accruing based on thee low rates let's switch gears a bit the votes coming up for a resolution for a spending resolution with regard to the budget here's my thought. this is just -- looking at the markets, all three major indices are avoiding paying much attention to this. the market in general doesn't seem to be paying much attention to this. of course, it could go awry and maybe the markets will take notice but ultimately, this is the ineptitude of congress showing its ineptitude off to the whole

world. they -- their job is to take care of these issues they haven't been able to. they're thrown into a measure with the time clock when they haven't been able to solve immigration issues for decades what are your final thoughts >> well, look, the majority of the republicans is razor thin and the result is we're back to gridlock thank goodness we got the land mark tax cut major in there. that's what is driving this economy higher they're ignoring this, you know, this really isn't much to be concerned about. government is not working too well remember the famous line by tucker, no man's life, liberty or property is safe while the legislature is in session. so by them getting all involved in this, maybe there's a silver lining there but i do think immigration reform is really important i hope they get that through >> listen, we're out of time, mark we all hope it's out of time there is human casualty or there is moral issues here i wish they could take care of

their business, make some hard decisions instead of always reaching for the band-aid box when things get tough. mark skousen, thank you for your time jon fortt, back to you. >> thank you, rick as we head to break, a little check on bitcoin right now over at coin desk. trading around 10,600 level. and you can see they're doing about the same on the bitstamp in over ten minutes, the senate is going to vote on a short term funding bill that could end the shutdown we're live in washington then when "squawk alley" retus.rn see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation?

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. we are minutes way from a senate vote that could end the government shut down our team of d.c. reporters is in washington watching the action and reporting. john, let's start with you, how much of this is going to come down to whether the democrats trust mitch mcconnell to bring an immigration bill for a vote during february? >> some. and democrats are going to have to take a leap of faith. but it feels as if they may be prepared to do that in this vote at noon. you've got more democrats giving indications that they want to accept the offer that mitch mcconnell has made for an open and fair debate, amendment

process, on immigration. in return for their reopening the government and having a three-week extension of government funding now what democrats have as a back stop is that after three weeks, they don't have to go along with an additional extension. so this is not certain democrats i believe are still meeting. that was the gist of a text i got a few minutes ago. but i do believe that the democratic position is softening after mitch mcconnell added to his concession last night by saying this would be an open and fair amendment process >> we have been paying a lot of attention to the back and forth on the hill. there is discussion on with which it has been removed from the negotiations, what do we know about that? >> we know the president didn't have any events on his public schedule there was a meeting with intelligence advisors at 11:00 this morning other than that, we don't know what president has been doing

behind the scenes. i talked with sarah huckabee sanders saying he has been talking with his own staff so mark short and the like i asked sarah if she thought they had the votes here for the noon vote. she said she was hopeful but it doesn't feel like a white house that feels entirely confident they have the votes in hand. they are watching a fluid situation as we all are. the president off camera and off stage here politically but working the phones behind the scenes >> we've ahad a weekend and i'm wondering which party feels like they did the best job pinning it on the other over the weekend? is this a trump shut down or schumer shut down? >> i think you have to wait until the poll numbers look at this situation in hindsight and see which party took it more on the chin certainly schumer shut down has a certain ring to it and elit racing is something that republicans caught on to very quickly last week.

but to john's point, if it is the democrats that might be softening here, certainly republicans are digging their heels in and hardening their stance they feel like mitch mcconnell offered a significant olive branch in being willing to open this immigration debate. an ush u he hadn't entertained before this weekend but is now fully at the table and that's as far as they will willing to do. number two in the senate saying he won't make any more assurances and that's pretty much it. we will see if they do in fact come to the table when the vote is under way >> john, you've been writing about differences between this run and shut down in 2013 in which you argue parties were arguing over much broader principles, right? >> yes and the difference between 2011 and 2013 is you have republicans making asks for demands of the

democratic president that there was no chance that he would actually meet orsustain in the long run on obamacare. he wasn't going to sign that in terms of 2011 they did get deep spending cuts but republicans themselves haven't been willing to accept the cuts what democrats are doing in this case is demanding that republicans deliver on something that they themselves say that they are for as well ultimately that's not likely to happen unless the president gets behind a deal on daca and other immigration issues, which are tied in with it. and that in turn would be the key to getting paul ryan to put it on the house floor. but that is the difference democrats are asking for something that republicans say that they are for as well. and they believe that puts them in a somewhat stronger position. in terms for the blame for the shut down, president, because of his weak public standing and because of his reputation for chaos governance, i think he is likely more than congressional

republicans or congressional democrats to take the blame for this but as kay la said, we will have to wait and see what the polling looks like in a few days >> kayla, you reported earlier that february 8 is the date we are looking at this takes us not very far are we doing this all over again on february 8 or february 9? >> we very well could be john raised the point that one of the democrats' positions is they could hold the government hostage again, use this as an issue for leverage in three weeks if they don't get what mitch mcconnell has promised but there is another variable that is going to be looming then and that is the debt limit remember, the treasury has been using extraordinary since december when the debt ceiling was triggered. it was only suspended for three months from september to december and that's going to come into play again that is an issue in which

republicans are deeply divided they are grappling have short term bills including debt ceiling suspensions or extensions or raises in the past that could come into play in february or march again. that is not own tireentirely ofe table and could get stickier in the future >> there is suggestion there is room for optimism about the next few minutes. guys, we have to stick around it find out we'll be right back with more on what to expect on e thvote, expected moments away. dow is up 10 points. back in a minute

investors paying close attention as we await the vote on the he is nsenate floor our sister network reporting the 60 votes are there but of course you never know until they are actually cast markets keeping their cards close to the vest. if we can get this off of the table for now and worry about it in a few weeks we can go back to looking forward to netflix tonight at q4 number possess >> that's right. a number of small stocks moving today. roku up nearly 5%. and squair, re, up 5% and tripl

the last 12 months >> best buy, walmart, home depot, lowes and estee lauder. >> j & j, rverizon, dow components heading our way let's get over to the judge and a half >> carl, thanks so much. i'm scott. we begin with breaking news that could end the government shut down in its third day moments away in the senate right now to california d.c. kayla is standing by on capitol hill it is now reported there is enough votes to reopen government >> outside the democratic caucus meeting just wrapped up ahead of the vote at noon the vote likely delayed or not held if votes were not there but the fact they are talking about this vote happening at noon is the first glimmer of hope you can see that they might