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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  February 9, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EST

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we still have to have a settling out period. >> we might get more commentary about the impact of tax reform then retail earnings as we get further on. >> and the fed will be here in march, before you know it. >> let's not get ahead of ourselves. have a great weekend everyone that does it for the "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. ♪ "fast money" starts right now with breaking news on what has been incredible and historic week for the market. the dow in a number of daily wild swings traveling more than 20,000 points this week with two 1,000 point drops. at one point we were in correction territoryand at the lows today the dow swung in a $ thousand point range yet again and closed up. is this a sign we are closer to the enof the selling
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if we are, are you inclined to put money to work is is now the time to do it. >> guy adami. >> welcome scott i love when you are back with us on a friday. >> thank you very much. >> the short is, i don't think the worst is over. let me say this, if you have been looking for a tradeable bottom steve can tell you where we bounced off of the s&p today and he will be spot on trough to peak moved 100 s&p handles. vix closed lower you talked about it in the green room this felt like one of those days where a tradeable bottom is in what does that halloween. >> again, i don't think the worst is over but if nothing else today as given you a road map for how to trade certain stocks goldman sachs trade down to $239 and change use that as sort of a low if you want to get out on the downside. the best names, including apple. the we versal was lower, trade off an important level and vix was low. >> that was off the record in the green room but whatever. >> i didn't say anything
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what did i say >> bk? >> the reversal happened today when the dollar started to weaken, too. i think that's another clue going forward. you need to see a weaker dollar here the worst case scenario for the equity markets in the long run are higher rates and higher dollar that's what you don't want to see. today you actually saw the dollar start to dive and then 20 or 30 minutes later you saw the s&p 500 start to bottom so i think you can use that as your tradeable bottom. i'm with guy on this at least the risk reward to step in here, you know where your stop is. that's today's low whatever stock you are involved in >> you don't know what caused the selloff? was it the ten-year or risk parity. >> all of it. >> how do you know when it ends, though if you don't know when it ends. >> the problem is that two days ago when we had the market rally you saw this bottom where you said everybody thinks it is great again. then the market collapsed. >> do you feel like because of the action today we either found the bottom or we are finding it
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soon the s&p breaches the 200 day moving average >> bounces hard off of that. >> i think it's positive that we research that low in the 200 day that we traded off 12% everyone was talking about how exentended we were above the moving averages. i don't know if it's done feet when are you going to know >> next week now all of a sudden the risk parity guys ratchet up, we start rallying and in the hilgd of the day they tell the market off and we break crucial levels again. >> let's say we can make an educated assumption and say we think rates moving higher caused it some of the vix parity and some of the vix products may have accentuated it but it's fear of raise rising rates >> friday the payroll number came out and spooked the market from an inflation perspective. here's the deal.
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this was an absolute delevera deleveraging from the standpoint of the asset classes which shouldn't be considered an asset class. vix shouldn't be an asset class. they were complacent they shorted the vix and it became a ticking time bomb we had pain over the last days hedge funds, sell 25 or 50 of this derisking. derisking because they are being forced to right now. they gave up everything -- >> [ overlapping speakers >> no. no here's the thing in times like this, you don't know when it's done. you will have volatility when -- >> you never do. >> listen it is a gift from my perspective because you look at it and say we shook out all the weak hands all the weak investors are basically schicken out of the market you have had derisking you are now having readjustment of models and that takes a period of time. >> hang on we have been in this business for years, for a lifetime. was this a different selloff than we've ever seen before? it looked programityic and
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robotic. >> it was very different than any other that we have had that being said you never know when the bottom is you don't know that that's trading. and by the time you realize what caused it and how it happened and when it's rallying the rally is over. it's all about risk reward. >> did anybody buy today. >> yes, i bought yesterday and today. i bought stocks i have been watching for six months or a year. >> like what >> intel it's trading at $43. it is a screaming by am i wrong for a dollar or two, maybe. but over the long story it's going to work. micron, the airlines are a buy industrials, utx, honeywell, boeing, that has come in from really high levels i think we are setting up here for a pick your spot we are in adult swim, kids out of the pool and you better know what you are doing when you are trading stocks if you buy stocks that you have watched and have done the work on, it is a sale they are on sale right now. >> who else bought >> i don't think the worst is
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over i have reasons that i think this happened doesn't matter why i think it happened and i don't think the deleveraging and close to being over i think the derivatives at some of the banks are ridiculous. but i will say this. this is the first time since last friday that the market give us a signal at least or something to trade off of in terms of a downside. you know, you are going to get those along the way. i still think there is pain ahead. however, you did get in the short-term a decent trade. >> the market is now the cheapest it has been since trump was elected president. >> right. >> right. >> if you thought it was too expensive before now it's back to when donald trump was elected. >> and intrarates are higher it is the trade-off of what you are going to pay for stocks based on the interest rate what's we are going through, the adjustment period. remember what'sing on here we have a good economy it's not like the economy fell apart over the last week what happened was people mispriced bonds. mispriced volatility and now we have that adjustment
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period to me, i think, listen, it felt different. there was exacerbation by some of the vix products that had things sell off. again, i think it's all about risk reward. the bounce today give me a place that you can start -- >> it sounds to me like you are not ready to jump into the market. >> i am long in the market that in fact -- if i'm still long in the market, then i am bullish on the market still. >> sure. >> but if i do see these levels get taken out i will start to trim. >> you didn't buy anything today. >> i bought rite aid for me. but it was a flyer i'm owning i made a sale and bought rite aid. for me it's floiks, nvidia amazon those are the things that will jump the most. >> the s&p bounced off key technical level today. that could be a bullish sign for more let's go to carter wolfe, aka the chart master, who is with the chart. hey carter >> here with the chart let's try to figure it out together what we know is it is a little bit of a reciprocal move from
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the strength that preceded it, which is to say obviously this was the best january in 21 years, up 5.6% which of course is this wonderful thing. but what we also know is that we had this reciprocal february let's look at it so best january in 21 years. but now we are sitting here with the fifth worst february since the inception of the s&p in 1928 down 7.2%. so where from here there are a lot of reference points some technical, some so-called fundamental. what we know is as of now we have drawn done 11.84% from friday, two weeks ago to right here friday february 9th almost 12% sort of remember that number and put this in context. there have been, in the history of the s&p, and you look at all 5%-plus corrections. 1920 to present. there have been 217 of these things remarkably, we are right in
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line, mean decline, median decline, and again, here we are now. this has happened, again, 217 times, and as of now it is light in line with precedent let's look at the charts here's the chart with no drawings, no judgments by me and then here's a chart with 200 day moving average all that the moving average is -- here's the next chart -- is an automated trend line before computers people had to draw lines i originally did that myself, and now we automate the process by using a moving average. we come down to this line, come down to this line and while we undercut it a little bit today we seem to have bounced there. the presumption is that this is a decent reference point to out some money work if one is not fully invested and that from here we have sort of set our goal post. that's what i'm thinking, that this high and the low will be in effect for a while, and that we're likely to vacillate and
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back end fill the. if you were putting money to work on the low today for instance you are up almost 3% from the plunge low. >> bring him in. >> absolutely. >> bring him in. >> it's friday we won't want to make him feel bad going into the weekend you >> can't make carter feel bad. >> is it enough to test the 200 day one time we could easily test it again. >> sure. the intraday low today was the same low as tuesday. we had this mini double bottom in the futures and in the s&p. often you do revisit a level having plunged to it but in terms of technical, to have a tail, plunge low and close on the high. the reality is that you have a ka pit you laer to type of behavior that gives way to big i think the goal posts have been set. >> when you broke it, even for a couple of handle inside the s&p, how important is that that we broke it or that just an
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overshoot for you? >> that's nothing, you are talking about fractions within the context of a huge number which is the aggregate. >> sometimes you say if you break that, grasso, you talk about the technicals, if you break those key levels okay then you could go down to x and test that. >> right. >> the fact that we bounced above it. >> that's important. >> is the wholly more bullish signal. >> buyers stood up, came in at the lows versus closing on the low. that's what we did the week prior. closed on the friday low and came in and puked monday. >> what sectors look the best technical. >> i'm in the favored growth i'm not into the cyclical trade. it's idiosyncratic growth. if you look at the relative performance of adobe, amazon, what have you, as they are coming down they are outperforming the market on a day to day basis. >> if we get this bounce, this is the low, what do they look
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for on the way up? what do they look for as the signal of okay maybe i want to lighten up here? >> there are kirious things like you will talk about, double tops and all that stuff if you ricochet back to a prior high you inherently get to a higher level people who bought at a high only to be treated to a disaster and when they get back, they take their money back and then those people who bought the low, today, and it ricochets back, and it hits the high, oh, my god i have got to collect this >> thank. >> he is going to be back here in 18 minutes. >> you are saying have a good weekend. he is doing "options action" with you >> chill out over there. i'll see you in a little bit mel is gone. he thinks he's the host. >> i don't think anything. you said have a good weekend he's coming back. >> we are still on we are still on. still ahead, energy is the worst performing sector this
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week down 8%. but there is one name in the group that may well have found a bottom we will tell you what it is. plus, ceos coming to the rescue jumping in to buy stocks at a bargain. and brian kelly is back from cancun where he was at quote bitcoin conference and he says there is one crypto catalyst nt ekexwe which everyone is missing. he will plain. more fast is after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. what do you do when everybody is panicking? put your money where your mouth is that's what jp morgan's ceo did two years ago when stocks were tanking. will other ceos step up this year dom chu has the details. >> the last time we've seen a pullback, may 20, 2015 to 2016 of the between then record highs and the bottom the s&p fell around 15%. for now that's bigger thattan the pullback we've seen since
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january 26th record highs. a lot of the factors went into the market bottoming out that day. one of the more notable calls came from the ceo of jp morgan chase himself mr. jamie dimon. in a regulatory filing he bought half a million shares of his own company's stock at the time it amounted to around a $27 million bet. jp morgan hit a high of $117 and change on january 29th we are currently at $110 a share right now. doubling his invested capital on that one trade we are two years away from that call on this latest downdraft, the question is, will a big company's ceo step up and make the same kind of valuation call on the their stock that diamond did? it could be a psychological for those worried about valuations or whether it's too late to get
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in on the bull market run. will we look back and see if we end up calling our next bout om by another name of another big ceo. back to you. >> i'll ask you, grasso, you are in earnings period it's not like you can come out and buy your stock during the diamond bottom it wound a blackout period. a lot of people think buybacks are going to be a significant part of the story this year. >> ultimately, the tax cuts. you have to see how they have to spend the money. it is a windfall for at love the companies. it is a tail wind. are they going to be m and a, media expensing or buying back stocks. >> why does it have to be or. >> it could be all three but buying back your to be is frowned upon as there is no other option for you than to do it. >> one of the thing i have said in the past, bonuses to employees and raising minimum wage and doing all of that in some respects in some respects
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could be cover for when you do the buyback you are not getting hammered because you have looked of a your employees at least somewhat and you intent to do it more i don't think buy backs are going to be a negatively looked at thing this time around. i don't. >> i don't either. i think they are going to be looked at as a new norm -- not the new norm but a normal. i say in general i look at the companies that reported revenue thus far and look at the growth we have seen in revenue growth it's tremendous. if it was just buy backs orchestrating the earnings growth, that's one thing we are seeing top line growth as well custom is super positive in a lot of the companies, that coupled with stock buy backs is a home run. >> you need somebody like a buffet to come put and and buy and say there is still value in the market that's question, is at these rates what's the value buffet comes in and makes a splashy purchase and we will call it the buffett bottom.
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>> i think he is waiting like the rest of us to see where interest rates are going to go. >> maybe or ge, right, maybe he comes in and buys that, a convertible note. >> smart guy. >> buffet or brian >> i'll let you answer. >> b, and buying bitcoin it bottomed. >> to me it looked like bitcoin bottomed. >> we think you are smart. >> in a week of unprecedented volatility, you know what was flat do you know what was flat. >> bitcoin, bitcoin futures. >> bk knows bitcoin. >> i do. >> he is our crypto exert. says there is one catalyst next week that could take it higher you are watching "fast money." meantime, here's what else is coming up on fast. >> my fellow americans, our long national nightmare is over. >> that's what investors are hoping is the case with the market but if the nightmare continues, we will show you how you can still buy portfolio protection for close to nothing. plus, calling all shoppers,
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we are whack bitcoin holding above $8,000 today. crypto investors have their eyes on a few events next week that could give the cryptocurrency a boost. bk is at the plasma with a little crypto plasma. >> we have got a couple of thing next week that i think people need to look at. first of all, the regulatory process. this week we had a home run grand slam from the s.e.c. and cftc on what the regulations are going to be here basically they said there are rules out there.
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we are not going to stifel innovation that process could go huge for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies secondarily, and i think this could be the fuel for the catalyst next week, wyoming. not that they note on crypto positive bills but they are introducing some crypto positive bills, stuff where tokens will be exempt from certain rules make it easier for innovation to happen that's a big one to watch. then there is a conference next week in dallas texas usually around the conferences you get quite a about it of news coming out generally positive the conference i was just at, people were positive it was painful but nobody stopped investing. let's see where we are technically. obviously, a big drop down here. last week i highlighted $7900. we did a dead count bounce off of that. now 5900 that to me looked like
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a capitulation move. that is the support resistance area just before we had the huge run up when bitcoin futures were announced and everybody was starting to get into it. for my eye, i think this one hold i think you are safe risk reward wise to start putting money back into bitcoin here. >> david >> i agree with brian. i think the regulatory stuff is important. i think it's important to get the institutional investor into the game we saw deleveraging. i think ethereum is the one the own here. >> grasso? >> the one thing that i own in this space is overstock. i own it because of its blockchain bk would agree, this is the way i play it. i don't bet on a coin. i bet on blockchain, the thing that's definitively not going to away. >> it is time now for the final trade. >> it is right let the record. >> to, you are first. >> twitter, had an incredible week i'm long in the name.
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it popped aggressively if it holds above 30 it's still good to get back in the you got out. >> first profit ever. >> yeah. snap chat, just to take the other side i am a seller of snap chat here. 17 times forward sales this is a stock that is -- they are jamming add loads to their user base. i don't think that's good. too expensive, sell it. >> bk? >> for me in this environment. i want to look for somebody or something that's going to do well in a high volatility environment. people have been lamenting low volatility, goldman sachs should do well here nice bounce for them >> are you ready for -- >> they are going to challenge you. smart show, carter, mike, dan. >> this one issing go to be epic. >> i can't wait. i'm going the watch it and prudential felons. >> mike flew all the way in for this one. >> boy his arms are -- pru >> pru. >> good financials, pru gets you done have a good weekend. >> you too, scott.
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>> "fast money" is off the next two weeks for special coverage of the winter olympics don't worry, head over to our twitter at cnbc "fast money" and we will keep you updated meantime, stay tuned for full coverage of everybody's favorite winter olympic sport, curling, right here on cnbc "options action" after this quick break. cfa institute. directv has been rated #1 in customer satisfaction over cable for 17 years running. but some people still like cable. just like some people like banging their head on a low ceiling. drinking spoiled milk. camping in poison ivy. getting a papercut. and having their arm trapped in a vending machine. but for everyone else, there's directv. for #1 rated customer satisfaction over cable, switch to directv and get a $200 reward card.
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. breaking news. you are watching "options action" on what has been a roller coaster week for stocks the dow bouncing in and out of correction territory and erasing all of its gains this year index tanking as much as 1600 points at the lows on monday it was the biggest point drop ever the dow traveling 22,000 points this week, with major intraday swings all week and closing out today higher by more than 300 points the hardest hit, energy, exxon plunging

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