hey there. we are live at the nasdaq marketplace on this expiration friday the guys are getting ready behind me. while they are doing that here's what's coming up on the show. >> it's got to be the shoes. >> shoes. >> shoes. >> actually it's the high level executive depart oous weighing on nike shares we will tell you what it could mean for the stock when it reports earnings next week. plus -- ♪ another one bites the dust. >> pretty much sums up what's going on with bitcoin. that crushed a number of bitcoin stocks, except one we will give you the name and

tell you why traders are excited and -- ♪ tonight i'm going to party like it's 1999. >> and one major tech name from 1999 looks poised for a breakout next week. we will tell you how to profit it's time to risk less and make more the action begins right now. >> let's get right to it nike shares were under pressure today of a two top executives left the company amidst an investigation for inappropriate workplace behavior this. comes as the stock had been on somewhat of a tear up 15% over the past year. one of the best performing dow stocks this year with problems in the c suite and earnings next week should you short the stock? >> i don't know if you short it on an outright basis but i think the news today is interesting. i think we have got to become comfortable with these sorts of announcements meaning i don't think the stocks are sold off hard because of this type of thing. they said that parker was going

to stay on past 2020 to kind of serve as a buffer here the way i'm looking at it is looking at how it acted over the last six months. it's up from the 52 week lows. implied earnings are 5%, which seems hefty but that's how it moved. i want to focus on the premium valuation, the failure at the prior high from late last month and the he po tension for a lot of good news to be in the stock. to me, i think you have a potential for a failure at the one year highs we have one year chart this is what caught my eye and why i'm targeting a move back to 6 0. look at that there it seals to be a great support level. seems to be on the up trend from the october lows right now, if you look out to april expiration you could buy the april 65-60 put spread

paying $1 for that allege at '05 your risk is $1 you break even i like the risk reward here. i think there is good news in the stock. i don't think there is a lot of things that are going to take it up over that breakout level. >> there is two critical reasons why i like the structure that you have chosen and the strikes that you have chosen for one thing we often talk approximate how much stocks moves on earnings. that's sort of a one day look. if you look at how nike has typically behaved for the one month that follows earnings you are looking at maybe a six or a seven percent move look at strikes he has chosen you are basically targeting that move to the downside the other thing is why do you want to did a spread going into a catalyst in this case you do see slightly elevated options premiums. options will deday a little bit each day if you look at the 65 strike that you are buying that's going to decay, about 3.10 a day when you are selling it it's

decaying 1.80. that's setting off a lot of the rental expense of owning options each day i like it. >> let's look at the first chart dan had up the issue of where the stock is in relation to where it has been in the long term chart, nike rallied back to its highs of 2015 n. principle a normal condition is after rallying to a prior high you on ten with it, meaning you back enfill. the stock has been doing this now for the better part of three months recall no. after contending with the high you either exceed it it will be the earnings that do it or back away from it. but it is a perfect setup or a very dynamic moment. now is it 50/50 making your bet it's going to be earnings? the one thing that gives me pause about being underweight or shorted, retail is very poor, and nike is holding up very well relative to retail big moments coming i am a inclined to bet up but it's know going to be casual whatever happens. >> the question is would i be short this stock right now

giving what i know about the space in general adidas had a massive rally after. i like the risk order. iske aring $1. i probably have a 45% probability in a week or so of being basically unchanged on this trade if you look at kind of the deltas that are in this option structure here if i get the direction right so to me i have five weeks for this thing to play out here. as long as it doesn't go the opposite way on a big gap higher i'm in the game. >> let's move on here. not just nike is reporting next week other big names including oracle, general mills, fedex, micron chart master says one of those stocks could break out >> all tech all the time let's talk about an old line tech. if we have got this analysis right it's about to break out. oracle versus its sector, one year chart, we know what it is, of course. oracle is the laggard. having basically underperformed its peers by 50% so to speak, or

its peers doubling it. a longer term chart. that's one year. the next chart shows us over four or five there it is. same circumstance, right you have got this lag. i want to show where you the lag started. look at the longer term chart. now we are up to where it really started to get juicy basically, oracle kept up until about right here i want to zero in on this moment and see if indeed oracle has catch up or pop potential. several ways to draw the lines this is a five year chart. one way to draw the lines would be this. a cup and handle and that usually is resolved but an up. next way to draw the lines is a wedge. that usually is resolved up. one more way to draw the lines after breaking out from well defined top, often after

breaking out you check back to the top, pivot, and start to go again. so now hold your eye on that classic line right there and look at the long term chart going back to the dot com era. here it is look at this it literally was a check back right to the highs, the breakout what a setup a classic break out to all time highs. i love it. i want to be long oracle going into its earnings. these charts speak for themselves. >> i love it, he says. wow, mike, how are you frayeding oracle >> we could talk about the fundamentals all day this is an options show, though, and we are going into a notable catalyst and he was taking a technical set up let's look at how the stock typically trades on earnings like nike you are going to see 5 to 6% moves on average what is interesting is that when i was looking earlier today you could buy the calls for 1.45

those are going to break even to the upside if oracle is above 359.5 by expiration. if you think about the fact it could move 5 or 6% one way or the other. you are talking about a 2.50, 2.75 move. you are getting a free option on a hook that's going to last until april 20th if it goes higher you could sell this option if it is profit or roll it into a call spread as ban dairy does in these types of trades right now this is a favorable price we are seeing on one month options. >> mike worked into something we talk about all the time. the qulid above. that's the at the money straddle he is big the at the money call. the implied above is 6%. he needs a 3% break even we talk about this in new events all the time it's important you need a lot of things -- just to break even you need direction, magnitude of the room

and the timing right these are ones where you take these inputs, his chart they do look good. but mike is defining his risk. it seams like a good risk/reward in in terms of technique versus methodology it is the same principle as what we were talking about with nike. as you get to a former high the reason you back and fill as this stock is because there is memory at the former high people have been made whole and they sold into the move. we will see as oracle has already done, now it should be free sailing our research has indicated maybe 70 to 80% of the stock's movement throughout the year can be attributed to their four quarterly earnings reports right? so if there is ever a time when you really need to think about whether the options are fairly priced -- and i think they certainly are in this case, this

is it. going into earnings as a catalyst and this is a stock that the street loves which could cut both ways of course you know so i like the stock fundamentally. they are in the right businesses if for some reason it dame disappointing -- we saw this in the last four quarters a down move of 7%. >> but their cloud sales had not hit expectations and that's what investors are keyed on here. to me it dose back to defining your risk in an even where you need to get a lot of things right just to break even the risk reward makes sense here. >> for everything "options action," check out our website while you are there, sign up for our super cool newsletter. dan reads it every night before bed. what are you waiting for here's what's coming up next. >> don't be a -- >> actually, maybe you should. because shares of square are surging. and it has nothing to do with bitcoin. we'll explain. plus, calling all options

action fans. reach into your pocket grab your phone, and tweet us your question at "options action." if the it's nice we will answer it on air when "options action" returns. >> logical well, it's earnings season once again. >> announcer: "options action" is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.

two,that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum -- just to help you improve your skills. boom! that's lesson one. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. welcome back to "options action," bitcoin tanking this year and taking down a number of cryptocurrencies with it except for one let's go to dom chu. >> you foip and "options action" folks certainly puny tonight i do get knocked down but i get up again that's me. bitcoin has been heading lower

as of laid those small and micro cap stocks that tried to ride the wave by butting blockchain in their name or changing their business plans haven't fared all that well. they went up riot blockchain, that up side parabola is righting itself down ward a stock that hit a high of 76 bucks a share is now trading around 8 bucks a share long fin whose ceo came on "fast money" and tried to talk his stock down, a stock that went public at $5 a share got up to $143 a share on blockchain optimism, now it's closer to $50. even overstock.com rode that crypto wave higher and lost half of its value since hitting a high in january. the one stand out has been square it is working on working elements of crypto into its platform but some argue square goes

beyond a crypto play bitcoin assets falling, that's having an effect on assets elsewhere in the market. except for some. >> dom mentioned square has been on fire, up more than 200% in the past year alone. if you missed the rally, relax professor michael -- mike khouw has a lesson. >> selling a put spread limits risk secondly, this is a trade where you are collecting premiums, it's putting time on your side finally, this depends also more on the strikes and expirations you choose you get a higher probability of profit. let's take a look here we can see as melissa was referring to, the stock had an enormous move. to get from and start buying the stock right at this level you can see it has come a long way

awfully quickly. what goes up could potentially go down. we are going to try to participate to the upside get time working on our side without taking all of that downside risk specifically what i was looking at was the april 55-50 put spread you could collect $2 by selling it for $3.50 but the put against it for 1.30. that's how you are limiting your risk that's 40% of the distance fweens these strikes we were talking about earlier if you see an identical catalyst you might want to own options. in this case their next earnings are going to be reported on may 2an. these options expire before them which is another reason why we like this trade. that's the biggest and most important near term catalyst that we see. we get to collect some profits before that happens. >> i like that you shorten out the money option it has a 50% chance of being profitable or losing money, that sort of thing.

but if it does nothing at all, just sits, he is collecting as that option dei kas and he is short out the move it's going lower and you get a quick move higher you are able to take it off for a quick profit i like the trade idea. >> as charts go of course it's pair. bollic the issue is does it haas forever. we know that caterpillar was parabolic, mcdonald. these are stocks that are up surely if you are long, taking profits is the -- >> can i make one point. we started the segment by talking crypto stocks. square is not a crypto stock they announced some users are able to buy bitcoin on it and a lot of analysts think it is a 30, $40 million revenue opportunity this year, if you are buy square because you think it is a crypto stock you are buying for the wrong reasons i want to be clear about that. >> even if this starts to run

out of gas are we expecting a sharp selloff or do you expect to it trade side ways. >> that's why that's so smart. because if you think about it there are very few ends that are straight up and straight down. that only comes in a biotech why you get force imagine your or an act of god >> a primary event. >> it's more of a stall, you start the age and you stall. it wouldn't be like that. >> the options market is implying there is probably a 65% probability that the stock is going to close above $53 by april expiration that's the chances that you either break even, make some money, or make all of the money. certainly better than a coin toss. >> do you think most investors are in square because of the crypto because they tried to talk that down on their last earnings call they are clear about it. >> i think they are smart. they have a cash app it is amazing and growing like

wildfire why wouldn't you have it so you can kind of investment in cryptocurrency they don't want to be known for at that that one thing that's important look howe bitcoin has done this year and look at how square has done totally uncorrelated to me the market is telling you it's not a crypto stock. i am a just saying don't buy it because you think it is a crypto stock. boeing posted its worst week in more than two years, is boeing as incredible run done? the traders will weigh in. plus, got a question for one of our traders? of course you do send us a tweet @options apgs action if it's not mean or laced with profanities we might adre it later in the show don't go anywhere. option actions back after this >> announcer: options action is sponsored by think or swim by td ameritrade eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that.

that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

so lionel, what does 24/5 mean to you?rade well, it means i can trade after the market closes. it's true. so all... evening long. ooh, so close. yes, but also all... night through its entirety. come on, all... the time from sunset to sunrise. right. but you can trade... from, from... from darkness to light. ♪ you're not gonna say it are you? welcome back to "options action." time the look back at some of our open trade two weeks ago carter said boeing's amazing run was done.

>> one of the principles of trend work is when you are in treup trend up check back check back versus when you are in a down trend you will throw back to trend. we have gone longer than anywhere in the history of boeing without a check back to trend. i want to make the bet that this current 7% plus minus sell hof is the beginning of something more. >> i was looking at the may put spread sell the 290s against it for 630. >> and they were right boeing shares fell nearly 7% in the past week. its worst week in more than two years. now what mike. >> first of all i mean the trade is up modestly i would say at this point obviously we were targeting a shaper move down and we are giving ourselves more time for that to play out my inclination actually is to stay in a bearish put. the puts that we bought, the 335s are now in the money.

one thing you could do and i would do myself if you are in this trade is sell the 335s, roll down maybe to the 330s so you are at least looking at an out of the money put spread. but we have until may that's going to capture earnings. we have present of reasons to stay in the trade. >> if you put the context of the sell off into the preceding move we have sold off fatherly nothing. it's the beginning of the trouble. >> does it -- >> this thing has lost almost $20 billion in market cap. when you think about the market cap gained by steel and aluminum stock it's de minimus to what this one has lost. to me, i wonder, carder the, does it give you more conviction

that you will see 300 in the near term. >> always. and while i don't look at fundamentals or funnimentals as i call them, it shows up in the chart. in other words, good trends don't last >> a short break and more "options action. rting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.

two,that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't?

coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum -- just to help you improve your skills. boom! that's lesson one. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. welcome back to "options action." breaking news on qualcomm. let's get to jackie deangelis in the newsroom. >> we are hearing in a press release that dr. paul jacobs, former ceo and current board member of qualcomm will not be renominated because of the notification to the board that he has decide to explore the possibility of -- >> is this a possibility. >> when you look at qualcomm's balance sheet, their licensing

issues with apple that that are likely to be shored up in the future this is a cheap stock especially when we've seen the money in m&a in the semiconductor place. at some point they are going to be in play i don't know what it is. intel, broadcom can't do it. but at some point they are probably going to be -- >> when we touched on of the last week. it was trading ten times eb ebitda they have got a lot of cash flow somebody could make a run at them. >> and laggard that has turned the corner >> time to take some of your twitter. how do you calculate probabilities of underlying prices based on options price for example, the 63% chance of square above 53 by april. >> hopefully the brokerage platform can give you those probabilities. but you want to look at the delta of the option action, a back of the napkin probability

to see what that stock is going to be at that level or beyond it by expiration. >> final call. >> buy oracle. >> mike. >> put spreads in square. >> dan. >> i like the april 65, 60 put spreads. >> our time has expired. i'm melia lesse. for more options action, go to our website. don't go anywhere, though. "mad money" with jim cramer is up next. >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer if i had to sum up this market in whole