people's pockets >> to increase their savings and wealth, they are better off economically over their lifetime >> bob, it has been a pleasure having you >> good to see you >> we'll see you all a little bit. >> make sure you join us back here on monday >> i am doing "squawk alley" later. >> "squawk on the street" starts right now. ♪ good friday morning, i am carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stocks exchange. futures of course are already lower on trade news and the prospect of escalation of a u.s./china trade war stocks are nearly two years. wages did climb 2.7.

our road map with futures pointing to a later open the u.s. economy created the fewest jobs in six months in march. >> is this a start of a trade war. president trump considers $100 billion in new tariffs. amazon is under attack from the white house, the president says he'll take a serious look at policy changes related to ecommerce giant. let's get to the jobs number non farm jobs below 100,000. >> unemployment rate holds at 41 participation rate comes down, a tenth. 62.9 there is discussions of bad weather and march consensus, maybe a late cycle number. >> i am going with the former. i think march, we had a lot of

different comments about retailers and restaurants saying listen, don't expect good numbers because march is so odd in terms of weather. two things that i notice and obviously besides the fact that wage gate were minimum >> yes >> when you listen to lenor, if you want to know the key number, it is no longer the unemployment number take look at construction down and to me that's weather and retail could that be toys r' us ? >> 12 months average goes to 188 and compares to 195 and 250 going back four years. i mean you know, it is where we are. it is 90 months of jobs

creation >> we are a strong country february's numbers were revised up >> i think we are not talking enough about the weather when you talk about and when i deal with companies, they all say the same thing remember when you look at those comparisons report, don't forget march was weaker because of the weather and who am i to say otherwise? >> this is one weird weather pattern. >> but is business a decent number for the market? >> i think it is >> trade is taking the bulk of concern right now. >> this is right >> does jay powell gets lucky with 100 billion >> no, i don't think so. >> how did he pick 100 billion and why not 150 billion. >> it is not a firm number

it is an urge to consider a number up to that. >> electronics is 150 billion. machinery is 112 and after that you start to go to furniture at 34 we have enough we can use tariffs because we have so many toys. >> tariffs and toys, most of that stuff ends up in a landfill 18 months. >> absolutely. >> who are the analog. we slap it on electronics, who's that >> apple we slap it on machinery, who's that > those are the ones i am worried about. >> you are saying their response to what they're going to do. >> they're fwoigoing to run out pretty quickly >> 115 >> we are at risk because what's left is pretty much everything -- >> what about something like

macao. i was having conversations about that this morning. you got two big gaming companies which really are chinese companies, macao that license is up >> macao is easy yeah, you can start macao. >> it is just a lot of ways to respond. >> what does that do >> maybe the numbers i told you they're all about the 200-day. >> now, people laugh go back to a couple of years when the chinese markets were breaking >> yes i remember that. >> everyone laughed when it was 200 days they went to the 200 days. these guys are saavy, i think that trump must have hate it

we beat them and we mebeat them and truly jeff bezos is not saying that. he's quiet >> he's quiet. that's the right strategy when you are in his position. >> we should go to cayla tausche right now. >> the president has been on the record on some radio interviews, proposing these tariffs on chinese goods. cayla tausche is going to wrap it up for us >> good morning, a surprising announcement by the president instructing robert to study additional $100 billion in tariffs. if $150 billion of chinese exports were in fact targeted with tariffs, that's roughly 1/3 of what china exports to the u.s. on an an ynual basis yesterday in a tape interview that was recorded around 4:00 eastern time, we should note

that the president was speaking to "the bernie and sid show." he anticipated of what he would do and what would happen to the market and the overall economy if in fact this escalation helicopters. here is the president. >> i am not saying there will not be a little pain the markets gone up 42% so we may lose a little bit of it. we are going to have a much stronger country when we are finished that's what i am all about we have to do things other people would not do. we may take a head and you know ultimately we are going to be much stronger for it but it is something we have to do. >> the president's statement yesterday, he directed the department of agriculture to alea alleviate some of the harm that'll come to the farm and agriculture kmu agriculture community in the united states. we heard the press secretary say

there could be short term paying in the market but it would result in the long-term success. the press secretary and the president seems to contradict that, larry kudlow the president's economic adviser who's trying to outline this fact that the tariffs won't go into effect for several months and still being studied and there is a chance they don't come to pass the president is a free trader he says that to me and publicly. he wants to solve this with the least amount of pain but it seems at this point, the white house is figuring out how much pain the economy can withstand and how much the white house is willing to endure to try to put more heat on china at this point. carl >> cayla, thank you for that we'll talk to you a lot more today. what do you think when the president says hey, we are up 40% and we can withstand a

little more pain >> he's got a real poll and he does not need the averages there is a deal i believe before he came in which china is not a free trader and take china off the table. they have been crushing us for years and we are going to come in hard and shut down the chinese and there is going to be a lot of pain and there will be gain i just think you got to, yes, we are not going after canada we are not going after europe as municipal as i would think >> that was your original thought. the europeans care away a lot. i am not a free trader i think that larry has to start thinking of china separately when you talk to peter navarro, what you get is we lost the war against china. now, it is world war ii where we

are coming in, guys, we just gave earnings per share big boost with the corporate tax reform now people have to take eps pain and that's, you know, why i switch to mostly domestic stocks >> what represents a domestic stock these days >> apple is not a domestic stock. >> apple bee's. >> apple bee's you switch you like apple and now you like apple bees because they're not over there >> it is not just trade, you got tech regulations and credit spreads and qt up to 90 billion and a quarter. we are getting comments from scott myers. >> i don't think it is a great situation for the market yesterday if you ask me and i said who knows for dying brands.

>> we are going to end up, coming into earnings season and we'll get decent numbers and everybody is going to focus on the fundamentals and say the multiple declines. we got good numbers, is that a strong possibility >> yes, that is but i think that you have to switch your emphasis i happen to like the company caterpillar. caterpillar has serious, serious problems if the chinese government wants to make caterpillar a serious problem. caterpillar deserves a much higher multiple. he wants little tougher talk with china he does not want a 25% of tax on

a pair of footwear get ready. >> i am ready. >> let me just run the manny chiroco. >> we a opposed to the tariffs the way to do it is to target those industries that those abuses are going on. it is not one of those >> nobody thinks their industry should be targeted >> jaime dimon should be art full in his letter i felt with deregulation that it was kind of a pro-trump. you know i want to walk that back i want to walk that back after doing some further investigation. everyone wants the chinese to pay. no one wants them to pay from

nervous. that's the big problem >> it is you got to come up with a way to have shares sacrificed for ultimate gains and that's not easy to do let's make the company with pesticide pays the president look at what he says, now it is time and it is not if you are lo long -- it is never time it is always time for appeasement. i am into navarro camp >> it does sound like it we have been losing -- we decided to sacrifice workers on capital in order to have those >> the question is whether you think we should have stayed, for example, with ttp and gone after china as a team where you get 11 players, 40% of global economy

rather than trying to do this alone? >> i would haveliked that. >> i don't like to be the lone gun. you recognize you are one of the great beneficiaries of globalization because you are a hedge fund manager >> why because my brione suit >> partly. >> it is easy to talk about the losers >> who ultimately had to work for the chinese in the '80s. >> but i think to david's point. you love boeing because you got to sell them a trillion dollars a plan >> it would be foolish not to take your planes there is demand and you cannot cut-off your nose. boeing have the planes they

need >> well, they do want to build up their own industry. they'll steal things i am not arguing with you on your point there are ways -- >> it has been a problem >> we did a piece of the whole program and maybe you did not see it >> i didn't see it >> oh, you did it. >> that was many years ago >> i remember it was like yesterday, like the way you attacked amazon. you are the for runner of what's been happening in twitterer you -- you >> thanks for nothing, beneficiary of globalization beneficiary of documentation >> who got information of amazon i bet you he knows the post. >> i won't tell you. >> treasury secretary mnuchin is going to be on "power lunch" at 1:00 we'll watch for that and the news on tariffs and a lot more when we return going after amazon again, the

president says it is time to take a look at policy changes related to the company a lot more on the jobs number. 200 points swings for eight of the last nine days back in a moment we've been helping you prepare and invest for retirement since day one. why would we leave now? because i'm retired now. so? we're voya. we stay with you to and through retirement... with solutions to help provide income throughout. so you'll still be here to help me make smart choices? well, with your finances that is. we had nothing to do with that, uh, tie. or the suit. or the shirt. voya. helping you to and through retirement. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your retail business. so that... if your customer needs shoes. ...& he's got wide feet. ...& with edge-to-edge intelligence, you've got near real time inventory updates... ...& he'll find the same shoes in your store that he found online...

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yesterday the president said again, amazon has an unfair business advantage and he'll take a look at policy to address on that issue. he accused amazon not paying enough sales tax and not on a level plainfield gary cohn during his tenure, to debunk his concerns they we were -- >> yes, that it was definitely probability. here again, we were talking about the break about is it the negotiations and negotiatornego? if the president comes out they can be better negotiators, but no, he takes on --

>> what's disturbing for many people thaink about this of the coverage from the washington post which is owned by jeff bezos and separate from amazon and at least according to everybody at the washington post which has no editorial control what so ever i can confirm if that's the case as far as i am aware as well the president does not believe that and there is a worry among some when you go down this road of the most powerful person in the country attacking a corporation because he does not like certain things they say about him. it does not set a good tone. if you want to under take an investigation of amazon's competitive practices using the rule of law and the doj to go about doing that and see what happens, many people say fine, there may be a case to be made

>> we'll hear more about this month. >> remember, amazon pays sales tax whether it has some one domiciles or not it is an attachment. does anyone do third party i think all third party should be charged there was a key thing he said on air force one, he said he was going to study it. >> okay, maybe he'll bring you in for tutorial. >> game on >> we'll get cramer's mad dash and opening bell in a little bit and take a look at the market, 103,000 below the 185 consensus. back in a minute [fbi agent] you're a brave man, mr. stevens. your testimony will save lives. mr. stevens? this is your new name. this is your new house. and a perfectly inconspicuous suv.

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time for "mad dash." inside pharmaceutical. >> what a different market we live in. incyte, cancer drug, the results did not meet the end point for me metatastic melanona. a l people felt it is going to be the second drug that they have once they add a second drug then people say it is a pharmaceutical company i think incyte is a very good

company. look at celgene. down 200 points. this is a very, very much more negative reaction than i thought. i think it stays at 70 i know from the healthcare conference, the long knives are out there. >> we got opening bell coming up rit teghafr this stay with us right here on "squawk on the street.

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so you can head into retirement with confidence. talk with your advisor about shield annuities from brighthouse financial established by metlife. you are watching cnbc, "squawk on the street. opening bell is in two-minutes below estimates. wage is not bad. did i think it was good or bad wages. >> well, i think, if you are jay powell, you can say we are sticking by our three, we are fine you average the two, february is strong i am always amazed by the way wages. you know a lot of that is ecommerce. a lot of that is people in

retail the only place i know tha that -- there is a good piece today in the journal about four in indiana i adore them they don't have enough employees there. everyone is afraid to train a lot of truck drivers because of -- >> autonomous driving trucks >> so you train them and they're out of work again? >> it is probably going to be a little while >> it is the big area of debate. is it five years or ten years or three years? >> he really hates nvidia. is it my dog that he hates that i named nvidia or is it the stock? i think the dog bit him. he's out everyday. i am surprised he's not joining the president with some tweets

let's get to the opening bell and the s&p at the bottom of your screen at the big board it is ufc celebrating its 25th anniversary honoring the contributions of scottish americans. all right, so we'll watch all of this you mentioned powell, we'll hear from him at 1:30 in chicago. bill gross is out saying only seeing one or two hikes this year >> i cannot see that when you go over things that dimon talked about, -- >> the ten-year could or should trade a four >> yeah, you better believe that we are going to get the three hikes at a thoughtful letter that was a big take away for me in terms of where. he thinks we are going

could be four. if we are going to go to four. they're going to to two. they got a bunch of hikes ahead. >> the follow on there is they got record level of corporate debt and if cash flow stabilizes or declines, what does that do to equity or balance sheet >> in approximately ten days we'll get some quart erers realy amazing. why did i say something that's so contrary to the earnings which will be very good except for the company in the end if the chinese target them. >> another morning where every dow component read seems like the uniformity of the index is striking. nike is leading the dow down 230. >> it is just the etf. >> i watch mcdonald's, that

stock is sneaking up that's a good gauge of worldwide commerce and i also watched starbuc starbucks. we have to look at companies like starbucks it took off 58 and 60. >> that's the concern, it widens out to things that you would not expect >> that's the spin out control scenario any u.s. base business that does an enormous amount of work over there. >> it is not impossible to imagine and i brought up wynn earlier which we should point out it is up by the way, not that much on the story of back channel wynn it is amazing. steve wynn does not have anything to do with that company and does not own the share, gone >> is that incredible?

>> ran by a young guy and this question is does it interest mgm. it is a little while back february 20th. murren did say her not focused on m&a i would say about that strategy, we see rapidly free cash going we are going to stay the coarse. >> that's with him not that long ago and regulatory questions, big regulatory questions involving china there and the larger issue did you want a company where license has to be renewed. it is 2022 that's not far away. the chinese has to say okay, we are renewing your license. i don't have anything to report

on in this vieenvironment, you imae it is not. >> jim murren is one of my favorite analysts. he's not just saying something and blowing it off i got an idea though if you were a hedge fund and you are like really worried about china, don't you go short yum china. yum has been owned by china of a higher price earning multiples than yum china that's extraordinary europe is doing great. by the way, taco bell. they lost to chipotle. remember when chipotle used to go on and said tahey had eight

different ingredients. >> to your point of domestic names, campbell is number one, hershey and clorox >> clorox is no china. >> i mean it is just -- that's the new portfolio. that's what people are doing and the problem is of course, everyone of those companies is earning -- well, general mills is earning challenge campbell says they're doing some sort of accelerant trying to get the company going. col clorox had a great quarter >> even though you are talking about it is being higher than facebook >> much more >> how about clorox and shorting coca-cola and don't drink the clorox >> don't drink the clorox. it is a good piece of advice >> their wipes turn out to be

huge i use clorox constant. have you ever bleached anything? >> we are getting rid of microbes that we may need that make us more resilience and eliminating bacteria too much. it kills everything and it is not good for you >> i covered a train wreck once with clorox which is bleach. it was a terrible tragedy. i walked near the clouds and i was blind for days that stuff is powerful is what i am saying. it kills a lot of things >> jay >> newel brands. >> it kills newel brands >> no, we have not talked about

it >> even carl changed the board. remember martin franklin came out and it was apart of their thing. >> i thought he was happy. >> oh, i am not interested anymore. >> he was happy. >> this team is no longer apart of the fight even with the new board in place, newell, they already have eight directors. >> newell, they sell a lot for toys r' us . that was bad the problem there is earnings. >> yeah. >> yeah, mike polk, he's got it down three times when martin says we got the director and we'll sell a lot

more to fix the balance sheet which by the way is not a great balance sheet. >> i have not heard from jeff smith for star board in terms of what the plan is >> jim, our buddy writes the half-life of trade scare is getting shorter and shorter. would we see more good cop action today from mnuchin? >> i wish i were not mnuchin and kudlow i have to come out and say negotiations yeah, the president did not like that the chinese made fun of him and said they got the best of him. he goes to 100 and maybe settles in the middle. >> what do the chinese do? are we going to have another leg down when the chinese comes back with another 75 billion? it is not about earnings anymore. the navarro win is about taking some pain in order to have gain.

the pain is going to be felt by shareholders you heard him? it is not that many. >> wish he could quantify a little bit that would make things easier. >> i feel that when i go over machinery, and electronics are really hard. i have another trade all right we are going to give them all unit unit united rentals and all domestic and earth moving >> infrastructure play verses cat. >> go ahead, make my day short yum and go long yum. >> what about like shipping containers is there a short there some where? >> that's really interesting >> who makes those things? >> go along u-haul there is going to be shipping containers going back and forth.

>> yes, that's a challenge business >> how about starbucks and dunkin's donuts? >> starbucks is growth and dunkin's is domestic >> you are going down a dangerous road when you indicate the chinese are going to win >> i am saying there will be hedge funds during every one of those trades and if you get a settlement, you will get crushed. >> robert frost. >> yes >> that'll make all the difference proctor is in the green. dow is down 146. let's get to bob pisani. >> happy friday everybody. we are down of course on president trump's trade war. we are up since the wage report came out, the jobs report came out. jobs were below expectations wage growth is not significant,

reducing the chance to fed my hike rate. take a look at the sectors and a little of a defensive tone consumer staples were the only group early on semiwhatted a rough week, we are down 3% as a group for the week. micron has been a big downside $35 initiating, materials and nvidia is down a couple of percent this week. the market seems eager despite what's going on for the president to move on from the trade war dispute. the big companies that are the poster child that put up this week's and some of the dow m movers boeing is positive and caterpillar is down 1% intel is down 4% and walmart is down 2%. so there seems to be some efforts to try to figure out

some bottom big industrials right now. i stuck with the market trying to move on here under the idea and maybe they are hypnotizing themselves that the trade negotiations -- we are seeing analysts comments of this counts of what is being said this morning. that's from isi. i am not paraphrasing. it is directly from their report here more from mr. powell this is the best growth and earnings that we are going to see in 2011. that's for the first quart eequ. the numbers are going up and not down that's a significant change that we have seen revenue at 7%. it is not people that are out. revenues are going here. we are seeing the first reports, the first stuff that's coming out. 23 companies reported for the

first quarter, these are the companies that have quarters end in february and not in march it includes a lot of big names these are off the chart numbers, 27% is from earnings scout and revenues are 11.5% these are way above expectations i don't think it is going to continue when you factor in hundreds of companies from the s&p. these early numbers are encouraging overall here one of this things i have been pointing out is that as the price have been coming down. earnings numbers are not coming out but multiples have gotten cheaper in the s&p 18.5 and today is 16.8 that's an issue. jim was talking about caterpillar and it is multiple 18.3 in the beginning of february and down to 16.3 today. the markets taking down a little bit, that means it is cheaper and more attractive. 160 points

back to you. >> let's get to the bond report as well, checking in with rick santelli >> what a morning. 265. that could have been further from the truth we did have a positive vision last month but we'll talk more later about the specifics. look at fed fund futures, i picked december. look at the end of the year, you get a nice macro vision. remember, you can do percentages, there is a lot of way to do it you notice the way it rallied up a little bit it gives you an insight into that market. if you look at it one week, it just brought us back to where we were and that's important. look at the next chart you know we talked about the creep of the rate and the creep of the dollar.

it seems to happen every time we roll in the unemployment report. the 10-yr as we led up to it but then it gave some back where we go back in the 280 range that we camp out for 22 straight trading sessions. if we don't, we obviously going to helicoptcontinue to potentia taper. if we close at 280 or higher, i think it will be significant and depicting of the selling bias on the long end and a little more curve steepening look at the shanghai composite on top of the dow jones industrials average for five years. t if you had to pick one to be long is the u.s. look at how it changed dramatically starting to separate right around 2016 i wonder what happened in 2016 the dollar moves higher and it

shows it comes back down and fails again right above 90.5 >> david and jim back to you. >> when we come back, the ceo of the national retail federation, matt shay will join us and allan patricof will join us on "squawk on the street. more in a minute where can investors seek predictable income in an uncertain world? pgim sees alpha in real assets. like agriculture to feed the world. and energy to fuel its growth. real estate such as e-commerce warehouses. and private debt to finance transportation and infrastructure. building blocks of strategies to pursue consistent returns over time

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♪ facebook shares are lower this morning she talked about whether facebook users could opt out of target based advertising. s this is what she told samantha guthrie. >> we have different forms of opt out. we don't have an opt out at the highest level. that would be a paid product >> all right, that would be a

paid product she went onto say mark zuckerberg is preparing to apologize in front of the house and it is possible there are other breaches, that's why they are doing this audit >> i thought it was material in terms of saying that there's been some more hurt for earnings and yet yesterday in her interview on bloomberg, the stock went up 1.50 during the interview. i still think that the apology and then an independent audit are the way out of this. may i remark it's very early today, but we got a weaker employment number, we got a bombastic china, the art of war ver us the art of the deal, and the stock market is doing okay again it's early it's early but what the heck. what the heck. other than insight, i see all the stocks coming back >> yeah. facebook is up. >> what do you make of that? >> i don't know. i mean it's fairly cheap based on its expected earnings and

revenue growth and we had zuckerberg say the other day he hasn't seen any fallout from the platform. >> it sells at a lower multiple than clorox. one of the tells micron down 1.75 they put out a piece saying we're reiterating our $100 target don't worry about flash being weaker this was one of the bullish pieces by david. you met with david, the new ceo, very forthcoming from micron, and this piece reiterating the $100. >> they see it as a double >> yeah. that's what i said. >> do the math, a double. >> that's what i said. >> made sure i heard you right. >> this piece is turning it around people were saying wait a second, flash is weak. now micron, the leader on the downside is up i caution, don't be be too negative although it's early i want to emphasize it's early and still trying to get a line on the navarro versus kudlow

camp and there are definitely camps there. a couple camps. >> yes, there are. >> right. >> warring camps could be warring factions. >> that -- let's just say different factions. >> got it. >> because i'm a diplomat. >> to jim's point we are well off the initial lows of the session. dow down 71, proctor, pfizer, exxon, are in the green. we'll get stop trading in a minute of your manufacturing business. and so this won't happen. because you've made sure this sensor and this machine are integrated. ...& she can talk to him & yes... atta, boy. some people assign genders to machines. and you can be sure you won't have any problems... except for the daily theft of your danish. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & this shipment will be delivered...

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still yes! xfinity delivers gig speed to more homes than anyone. now you can get it, too. welcome to the party. let's get to jim and stop trading. >> i'm saying the stock to watch in the dow is mcdonald's why? steve didn't just do all day breakfast. remember, he sold in january of 2017 a controlling stake in china to a stake -- to a chinese conglomerate and was that smart or what? the stock acts the best of the dow stocks that i follow bob pisani with a list of what's good mcdonald's, they don't need -- they're not levered to china watch that if it keeps going higher that's people saying i have to be in something. >> china was a tough slog against kfc.

>> yes. >> easterbrook cut his losses. wow. that's a smart trade. >> jim, what's on "mad" tonight? >> smart trade, david. stay focussed. >> a company at home which is a first time for me, home decor is -- that's what works. home companies, david. >> home companies. >> dying brands. >> where is all that furniture come from? >> i have to ask that. >> i bet i know. >> west elm. >> we are a block away to have what it looked like in the dining room. no maybe china is involved. >> i'm saying. >> yeah. >> we'll see you tonight. >> wow >> what a great week. >> i'm just fired up i have to tell you i'm suggesting mcdonald's versus restaurants, again, you do yum

china. >> yum china who would have thought that yum china -- >> flashbacks to being a hedge fund manager. >> throw a phone >> are you going to throw a phone? >> yum china >> it was the keyboard and the letters that used to fly. >> i told you to short yum china. >> the letters used to get stuck in my hair now i've taken care of that issue. >> we love you we'll see you tonight. >> wow love you guys. >> 6:00 p.m. eastern when we return, goldman will talk about the jobs report and what it means for the fed when we come back eries to homes than anyone else in the country, we never forget... that your business is our business the united states postal service. priority: you

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good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl with sara and david at the new york stock exchange. market down 95 off the initial lows what a busy morning between the jobs number and some of the fears of escalating trade wars our road map begins with a trade war and take you live to beijing as china responds to the trade rep's threat of an additional $100 billion in tariffs. >> and then the u.s. economy adding 103,000 jobs in the month of march closer look at the jobs report this hour with goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius. >> and finally the vix is up

more than 70% at the start of the year as markets continue to bounce around a lot. why guggenheim's ceo says a recession is on the way. first let's get to wrap up some of the trade news we've gotten over the last 18 hours. kayla tausche is in washington for us on that good morning once again, kayla. >> good morning, carl. this back and forth between the u.s. and china has been going on for months it began in january with the u.s. tariffs on solar panels and washing machines but it has escalated with the president's bombshell statement last night that he has instructed u.s. cr to study $100 billion of tariffs he said, but we understand this to be tariffs on $100 billion on imports. a few moments ago the president's economic adviser larry kudlow said detailed negotiations with china have not begun yet and there is no timetable but he believes the president and ambassador lighthizer are thinking about submitting a list to the chinese of what they want in this

situation. none of that has happened yet. that is key as the tit-for-tat between the u.s. and china, the two foremost economic super powers continue to battle over trade. china's commerce ministry in a statement last night said that they would continue to fight this as the u.s. continues to threaten retaliation, saying china will fight back until the end, at all costs. we'll fight firmly against it with new comprehensive action which we're still waiting to see what that means. despite kudlow saying this week that the president wants the least amount of pain, yesterday in a taped interview with a wabc morning show, the president said there will be some pain. listen >> i'm not saying there won't be a little pain, but the market has gone up 40%, 42%, so we might lose a little bit of it. we'll have a much stronger country when we're finished and that's what i'm all about. we have to do things that other people wouldn't do so we may take a hit and you

know what, ultimately we're going to be much stronger for it it's something we had to do. >> republican lawmakers will be back in washington early next week, many of them do not like how the president has been taking this situation and escalating this situation so we'll see whether they decide to challenge the president on things next week carl >> yeah. in an election year, midterm elections, that will be interesting. dooerp into the chinese reaction to eunice in beijing for more on china's response eunice >> thanks so much, sara. it's a friday night and a national public holiday here in china and yet, the commerce ministry scrambled together a last-minute press briefing for this topic i can't tell you how unusual it is, and i think that it really goes to show just how seriously the chinese are taking this response the commerce ministry just a couple minutes ago said that china is well prepared if the u.s. releases its new list of

$100 billion of products, we will immediately fight back without any hesitation we won't rule out any option now in terms of the comprehensive measures that the chinese could possibly take of the -- the commerce ministry spokesperson kept his cards very close to his chest, but what was also interesting, something that came up, is something that kayla had mentioned that has been coming out of the trump administration because the commerce ministry spokesperson was also asked what behind the scenes discussions have been taking place between the chinese and the u.s., and the commerce ministry spokesperson said china has noticed similar information about negotiations from various american officials, but this is not what has happened. he says, recently u.s. and chinese economic and trade officials haven't had any negotiations on trade issues and when he was asked again what

will the chinese do if the u.s. decides to -- upgrade this certain -- escalate this situation, he said, we have a planned detailed action in place. obviously, china taking this very, very seriously and something else that we've been seeing is in the state press, the state press basically projecting the idea that china has higher tolerance to -- for a trade war and to survive a trade war and on social media, we are seeing the top trending topic is trade war, the second one is china is not afraid, and also, somewhat disturbing trend that we're starting to see here, is that there have been some calls now for boycotts, some people are saying those who comment, using an iphone here, it's time to support domestic brands another person writes, boycotting american products starting from today, no iphones

and no american cars these, again, are just comments that are going on social media, but the reason why it's interesting is because in china we've often see government-sponsored anti-japanese or american campaigns in order to fuel this type of sentiment. i think that is going to be the next step. will you see companies, american companies, that produce locally, even potentially getting caught up in this -- in this type of potential for a trade war? carl >> eunice, that's going to be something to watch for sure. thanks to you. eunice yoon in beijing tonight. sounding the alarm with a recession call, guggenheim told brian sullivan in a chat this morning on "world wide exchange." >> i think for the next year, even with the current tariff tantrum that we're in, that equities will continue to go up

as we have the stock buybacks and increase free cash flow but ultimately when the chickens come home to roost and we have a recession, we're going to see a lot of pressure on equities, especially as defaults rise, and i think once we reach a peak that we'll probably see a 40% retracement in equities. >> joining us for more on that jpmorgan's chief global strategist, david kelly and bank of a michele meyer with us as well happy fry. good to see you both michele, to scott's point about rising costs of service and record levels of corporate debt, cash flows that stabilize and then start to decline after a short-term boost from tax cuts, are you looking past all that to where he is? >> you know, i think that there's a big debate as to whether or not we're just seeing short-term stimulus, a fiscal sugar high, where near term data will look strong, versus a scenario where we have a structural change in the economy, productivity is stronger, the labor force is expanding at a stronger rate and

to me the jury is still out. you are seeing some hints that long-term growth could benefit and the labor force data has been looking stronger of late. business investment is improving. you could make a case we could have a higher trend growth rate but at this point it's too early to have a strong conviction view and i think you're also hearing the same thing from the fed. look at what the fed did in the sep in the last meeting while there was conversation about productivity improving they did not change their trend growth estimates. >> david, where are you leaning and in light of the jobs number today, do you see it as a classically late cycle number? >> first of all, the jobs number today is like snowfall in april. it's, you know, unpleasant but where probably not a harbinger of things to come. as i do think the payroll numbers will improve over the next few months. there is a message here which is that we are out of easily employable workers in the housing market, sometimes

the realtors say sales were weak because there was no inventory not a lot of inventory of great workers to hire still unemployed and may be slowing down job growth i still think the economy is growing steadily i don't think we're going to lift off to 3% growth in the long run a year of about 3%s growth and 2% growth and as for a recession, some day we'll have a recession but right now i don't think that equities are overvalued that tax cut helped with valuations and we will see that in the earnings season over the next few weeks i'm no that worried for a correction at this point but gains from here should be relatively slow. >> what about trade, the fundamental data is prooepetty decent does any matter if we're barreling towards a trade war with the second biggest economy in the world >> you're right. that's a risk factor and presumably one that has been growing so you know when we're forecasting the economy at the beginning of the year we're

thinking about the underlining stories, the story of fiscal stimulus and growth and ism surveys reaching new cyclical highs, consumers seeing a benefit from the different dynamics but then on top of that the potential risk of an escalation in trade tensions and you have a very different dynamic. i mean, i think to monitor how this could play out in real time, you want to look at financial conditions you want to look at potential confidence shocks. do you see some of the risk factors show up where businesses become concerned about their ability to expand with the risk factor that's presumably looming. >> right isn't that the real worry here, david. we know we're going to get nice prints here in the next few weeks, but sort of the unanswerable question of how this is all affecting corporate behavior, right, and treasurers who have to manage a cycle long order book. >> we have a corporate tax cut

but uncertainty tax hike what trade wars could, it's a terrible thing economists don't believe in tariffs. they don't work. a trade war with the chinese is a particularly stupid way to approach things because guess what, xi jinping does not have midterm elections. when they say they can hold out and fight us out of this they're right because they don't care what pain they have to suffer and we do. so we will ultimately have to back down and try and come to a compromise the dollar is too high our budget deficit is too big. we have a trade deficit. hopefully we'll get back to that in the meantime i regard these -- this trade tension and these trade talks as something that can distract companies, cause uncertainty and it's very negative. >> you mention the trade deficit and overall deficit. it's only doing one thing going up the overall deficit. i don't know where we will end this year but given the tax cuts and the budget that was just passed it's going to be a very large number

any concerns there about the borrowing needs of our country as we move forward in this year, not to mention this increased tension with china and the idea that perhaps they don't participate as aggressively as they have in the past? >> well, i think they may still hold that over us that they could, you know -- they own a trillion dollars of our debt and they don't have to that could cause a problem in the long run generally i think long-term rates will move up but the problem is that the years around the deficits will increase our foreign debt we will have, you know, something like $18 trillion of foreign debt within the next ten years and we're going to have to service that and that's money going overseas we're living beyond our means today that means we will have to live beneath our means in the future and if we live beyond our means we're producing more -- or consuming more than producing of course we will run a trade deficit. we have to fix our fiscal house if we want to fix our trade deficit. >> goldman has a note out this morning asking what happens if china runs out of u.s. goods to put tariffs on and talk about

some of their debt holdings. currency depreciation is on the list and then limited access for u.s. services you know, u.s. offerings in the services sector, which is separate from goods. how seriously do you take any of those? >> i mean, i think these are all risk factors at this point so the idea that it's retaliation, we make a move, they make a move, at some point it could escalate to the extent that you have to start thinking about these other dynamics in terms of reserve balances and exchange rate impacts. i think the market kind of has a sense of that and it's still at this point considered more of an outlier story, a risk factor certainly it's something that they're monitoring and as we see these headlines you can have this gut reaction where the market sees as a risk off and settles down as you hear about negotiations but there is still so much unsersty for us as economists it's hard to pencil

any of this into our baseline forecast at this point. >> yeah. strategists were happy to fill out the numbers on tax reform and the impact on cash flow. still scratching their heads to some degree on this one. michele and david, thanks, guys. appreciate it. for more on today's jobs report we're joined by our senior economic reporter steve liesman. >> what do they say, payback is a -- i can't say it but you know what i mean. the strong jobs number in february, north of 300,000, and then some effect from strong storms in march leading to a disappointing jobs report that is not really disappointed most economists as you heard. jeffrey saying, quote, essentially payback without adding any expletive after that. it should prove temporary with tax cuts kicking in and more than strong enough to keep the fed tightening the numbers they're talking about, 103 against an estimate of 178 february was revised up and stands at 326. do the average at home, right

around 200,000 average hourly earnings a tick more than expected, 0.3% the unemployment rate at 4.1%. labor force participation rate 62.9 goods producing and you can see when you look at both columns that's payback 15,000 in march versus 106,000 in february. minus 4.4 in retail and go through the numbers all the way down negative or weak on the left, really strong on the right this is really just seen more as payback as you scroll through the numbers. the jobs gains in manufacturing. the market fully priced for a rate hike in june and another one in december. what you see, though, very low probabilities of a third hike this year. sara, so far at least. >> we'll monitor comments from chairman powell this afternoon. >> and mr. mnuchin. >> on "power lunch". >> thanks. >> coming up more on trump's

trade policy and tariffs as the national retail federation ceo says we're in a, quote, dangerous spiral more "squawk on the street" right after this break you know what's awesome? gig-speed internet.

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and so i think as we look at this, it's the uncertainty that's getting created here.

that's not good for consumers either. >> retail is in a world of hurt as we've been reporting on for the past few years, if these go through does that have the potential to put your industry into recession >> well, i think what we've seen in the retail industry is a massive amount of transformation and disruption the retail industry grew at 4.5% we had the best holiday season we've had since 2006 before the recession. much of that was driven by the momentum in the economy and the positive signals coming out of washington and the tax reform and the regulatory reform so we would like to see that momentum continue into the rest of 2018 and one of the ways to do that is to get back on to the original playbook that the president and the administration and the congress were running. let's go do infrastructure reform, let's do work force development, let's do some of the other things that need to

happen to keep the momentum going so the retail industry is in a very healthy place. there are isolated examples of companies that aren't healthy and you've talked about those before a lot have to do with bad private equity deals overvalued. but on balance we're seeing a lot of growth and a lot of important transformation i think we're well positioned to add jobs and grow the retail industry as long as we continue with the sorts of smart policies out of washington last fall. increased taxes in the form of tariffs are not good policies for washington or for consumers. >> matthew, finally, amazon, which has come under attack regarding their contract with the post office and "the washington post" but also this idea from the white house that they have hurt mom and pop retailers, do you believe amazon is a net job creator >> well, i think on balance they're definitely a job creator. you look at the things they've done to encourage the development of small businesses, the supply chain, the jobs they've created directly and

indirectly i think somewhat ironically, we and the president and amazon are all in greelts agreements on on and that is we ought to fix the internet sales tax issue and the inequity between brick and mortar and retail sellers. we're all in favor of a solution and a proposal floating around in congress that ought to get moved forward. the supreme court is looking at this so, you know, again, the part of the retail industry they are a big contributor to the economy along with many members like walmart and kroger and target and mcdonald's and many small companies, they're all poised and prepared to grow and they want to grow and invest but as long as we're talking about tariffs and the uncertainty created by what might happen to consumers businesses won't invest and all that money from the tax bill last year that was going to be poured back into the economy people will hold back on some of that until they see how the scenario plays out >> it will be very interesting to get commentary and guidance from earnings which kick off in earnest next week. we'll leave it there

thank you very much from the national federation of retail. >> coming up, gold mman sachs chief economist will join us on set. it's a job day and jan will be here and talk jobs with him, back in a moment

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taking a look at how a potential trade war with china could affect the agricultural industry. >> trade jitters in the market and more focus on how much the agriculture industry will be affected by a possibly escalating trade war with the likes of china one of the more notable exchange traded funds that traders and investors use to take a look at the business agra outlook is the etf, that ticker moo get it as of yesterday's close the fund had around $875 million in assets the total expense ratio a little over a half a percent. 57 stocks make up this fund. you got farms, food and plant science companies, et cetera, all of them in the portfolio the top holdings are farm equipment maker deere and vertlizer maker and --

fertilizer maker and mun sato that rounds out the top three. tyson is number six. each has around an 8% weighting in the fund. tyson about 5% american farmers will be a part of the discussion as trade threats loom from china. given the billions of dollars worth of everything from soybeans to pork that u.s. exports to china the moo etf around flat for the year but 15% gainer over the last 12 months however some may want to pay attention to the trading volumes around this particular etf it only trades around 87,000 shares on average a day so not a huge amount of liquidity and not necessarily the most active of funds but a big one to look at if you're in the agra business view in terms of your market outlook there. >> most of our viewers understand what you mean welcome back good to see you. >> good to be back. >> let's get to courtney regan for a news update. >> good morning. here's what's happening at this hour british doctors say former russian spy sergey skripal is no longer in critical condition, a

month after he was poisoned with a nerve agent. yesterday british police announced his daughter yulia was conscious and in stable condition. russia has denied responsibility for poisoning either of them a gaza official says a palestinian man has been killed and 40 injured in protests on the gaza/israeli border. protesters burning tires prompting israeli troops to fire tear gas and live fire. pakistan's prime minister arriving in afghanistan for a day-long visit in an effort to ease strained relations between the two neighbors and revive a push for peace talks with the taliban. he is welcomed by the afghan president. sergio garcia in serious danger of missing the cut at the masters after a dangerous disastrous 8 over par 13 on the 15th hole on thursday. the defending masters champ hit five balls into the water. it ties the highest score ever

in the history of the masters. i had like a 16 on a hole before that's your news update at this hour back over to you. >> man, that's why it's the masters. a tough course thanks, courtney when we come back the dow, s&p and nasdaq set to snap three-day win streaks. stocks have whipsawed through the session. l talk to jan hatzius about the jobs numbers as well with the dow down 189

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with david faber and carl one hour into the trading session and let's take a look at where we stand on stocks triple digit decline for the dow but off lows we saw overnight on futures. dow down 202, s&p 500 off 0.6% boeing and goldman sachs are the biggest losers right now in the

dow. trade tensions front and center. it is jobs day and for more on the impact of today's jobs report and to talk about tariffs we're joined by goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius. always nice to see you. >> good to be here. >> you got the wage number right, but looks like you were overly optimistic on the jobs front. are you seeing any evidence that the trade tensions and unsert environment will impact hiring decisions? >> not at these numbers. the weather impact looks bigger than expected. we thought that might take about 100,000 off from this number relative to the number that ended up taking off probably something more like 150,000 relative to the positive im pact in march and then it was also somewhat weaker in other areas, so it's definitely weaker than expected report. household survey also a little weaker, household employment was

down, unemployment rate edged down, didn't round down to 4.0 having said that i think the labor market is quite strong if you look at the last three months we still are basically getting 200,000 new jobs per month on average and that probably washes out a lot of the weather effect so if you look beyond just the single print, i think the labor market is making a lot of headway. >> every month we ask whether participation can go to the upside, can it >> i don't think so. i think we've been in an environment for the last four and a half years where participation has gone basically sideways because the positive structure, the positive cyclical effect from a stronger economy, stronger labor market, have been offset by the negative structural effect predominantly population aging i think we're still in that environment. my expectations for 2018 would be that we, you know, go sideways, with some ups and downs, right now we're actually towards the top end of the

range, so i think there's probably still a little downside, just in the very near term, for the participation rate and then also for the unemployment rate for that reason it doesn't mean we're going to, you know, break out of that channel to the downside but i think in the short term is the reason to expect lower numbers. >> does that mean overall job creation slows the average comes down >> that would be my expectation as you go into late 2018 and 2019 i don't see any signs of that in the data at the moment again, 200,000 almost exactly on average over the last three months, that's basically somewhat stronger than we've seen most of 2017. as we go into next year if the unemployment rate comes down again, which i think it will, then we're going to have more -- a harder time adding jobs because we'll be down at really low levels probably beyond full employment with a little more upward pressure on wages and

prices and then the fed will want things to slow down. >> let's talk trade. the president is tweeting about china. we know that china plans to launch a complaint with the wto. president trump just tweeting moments ago, china, which is a great economic power, is considered a developing nation within the world trade organization and they therefore get tremendous perks and advantages especially over the u.s. does anybody think this was fair we were badly represented. the wto is unfair to the united states just more heated rhetoric. how is this going to play out for the economy? >> i think there's a lot of uncertainty, obviously, because we're looking at negotiating positions at the moment and those have been escalating there is more risk i think that you do get more sizable tariff increases. that said, these are still more of the opening rounds and where we ultimately end up is still hard to say. i do think that, you know,

modest increases in tariffs are important, i mean modest on the sector of the overall economy, they're important in particular sectors. the macro effects are relatively limited. of course if things continue to escalate, at some point, you get to a level where the macro effects would be more significant. at the moment we haven't changed our forecast on the basis of what we've seen, though. >> so you agree with this market the dow is down 252, well off lows we saw overnight and sectors are higher for the week, this idea that this is only a negotiation, it's only a warning shot, and we don't know exactly what -- >> i do think the risks have increased over the last few weeks. certainly the announcement last night was a surprise i don't think that the chinese retaliation against the 50 billion u.s. measure was a surprise that has been very clearly signalled. we have seen some escalation beyond that, so i do think that

means there is more risk so far again, not enough for us to change our baseline forecast of an economy that's still growing above trend and the federal reserve that still continues to hike about once a quarter. >> so the baseline for the ten-year is what for you where are we headed? >> we're looking for three and a quarter by 2018. we think that the fed is going to deliver more hikes than what markets are pricing to some degree in 2018, versus market pricing of three and significantly more in 2019 four hikes there the market is pricing only a little more than one >> jan hatzius, always nice to see you on a jobs day. chief economist at goldman sachs. >> when we come back all 11 s&p sectors on pace for a positive week, including banks as they get set to report a week from today. we will check in with tommy from kdw and get his take on the sector for now awfully close to session

lows, down 236 on thedow and w were down 260 at the open. bank in a minute

a handful of stocks trading at a major discount in the marks veetha posted big gains this year. we'll reveal the names on tradingnation.cnbc.com more "squawk on the street" coming up.

we're keeping a close other on the bank stocks with the financial downs ahead of earnings next week, jpmorgan, citigroup and wells fargo set to report the sector down about 1.5% for the year for more we're joined by tommy, president and ceo of kbw nice to see you. >> welcome back. nice to see you. >> it's good to be back with all this news. this is supposed to be a good year for banks, rising interest rates, tax cuts finally came through. what happened? >> i think it's still going to happen i think the stocks are attractive i think that they've been great performers so they've gotten

caught up in a little sell-off in the volatility, but i think the fundamental outlook is still very solid. >> even with the rising trade tensions >> the rising trade tensions, the good news, i don't think that the political noise has seeped into the real economy yet. we're looking forward to what management has to say on the quarterly earnings reports i think the best strategy i've seen in my years on wall street buy the trophies and best ideas when on sale and i view it as an opportunity. >> a lot of people believe regionals where loans are more key will benefit from the curve. every bank is different. do you go along with that? >> rising interest rates is good we trimmed a bunch of estimates coming into this quarter so the improvement is not happening as fast as we once thought it was, but still directionally things are positive higher rates will help the banks. i'll tell you if the senate bill passes, that's probably far more important to those banks than what happens in quarterly earnings. >> you should explain what that

is for people who may not be following. >> no major dodd/frank amendments passed since the law was passed in 2010, and the senate has passed a bill that will take some of the burden off the mid and smaller banks. it really doesn't address the biggest banks but takes some of the burden that's flowed down to them off, passed the senate, in the house, and if that passes it will remove the $50 billion barrier, for example, and will be a really big deal >> on that subject, will it also potentially enhance the ability for some consolidation at that level? i mean your firm used to advise on its share of these kinds of deals? >> we still do advise on a share of these deals. >> they're a little below the radar screen because of the $50 billion barrier. and so yes, only three banks have passed $50 billion since dodd/frank was signed in 2010 and the number 20 to $50 billion banks in the last decade has doubled. there is like i said a traffic jam of consolidation that will

probably happen if the $50 billion threshold -- i think it's good. the biggest banks have picked up share since the crisis we need more competitors for the biggest banks. >> is the volatility going to show up in this print? >> it is this quarter, yeah we -- so ournumbers we think there will be a 7% improvement for trading year over year, and remember, last year's first quarter was okay the first quarter after the presidential election. so i think that will be good and make people feel a little better i still think the bigger picture in trading it's going to be a difficult business going forward. >> did you see jack on "power lunch" yesterday he has never seen volatility like this. the man is 88 years old and had 60-plus year career. that's quite a statement. >> it is i think it's going to be a little muted because a lot of the trading has moved from the biggest banks, technology is playing a bigger role and the vol car rule has taken banks out of that business it's not going to be as important as it was. it will be better but i don't

think it's going to be the single most important driver for bank earnings. >> you said you think it's a difficult business going forward. >> it is. >> it has been for goldman sachs which we think of when we think of volatility and trading, certainly fixed income currency and commodities. where do they go then? where do these banks sort of shift in terms of finding a level of profitability that once was provided >> i'll tell you how i'm looking at this quarter. i want to see what's happening in this chapter of the storybook. the storybook is, goldman is still heavily concentrated on market driven revenues and trading and banking. morgan stanley went a different route. they built a big high network business if you see what goldman is doing with markets and other areas they're building a more traditional bank now what's fortunate for them, they don't have to do with branches anymore because technology can help them the realty is that's the story is how are they doing in the transition on not being as reliant on what you just described? it won't happen this quarter but the question is, what are the mile markers as we're moving along? >> it's an important transition

you point out and will be accelerated under the new leadership that will come as well. >> i think regardless of who the leader was they will have to make the same decision. >> final question tom as it relates to policy and the story de jour, banks as i mentioned earlier were seen as key beneficiaries of the trump agenda, deregulation, still talking about seeing that from a republican congress, tax cuts, we're seeing i think the question that investors are asking today is, that's going to be blunted by the tough talk on trade where we don't know where this is all headed do you see this as a pro-bank and pro-business administration? >> so, what i've been doing is focusing on the policies and the laws that have been passed and trying to ignore some of the political -- >> words have consequences >> they do that's why you have to watch and see if it leaks over for now, i think it has been pro-business, good for the economy, and i think it's good for all americans, too, to have a better growth agenda so i think it has been a positive i also don't think it's been

reckless the talk about regulation change in the area i'm familiar with, which is financials, is just going from hershavy regulation neutral. no one wants to do the great financial crisis again it's been responsible. i think it's very good but i often try to talk about what could go wrong before it happens so that way you know it when you see it, so credit quality. the big story here we haven't talked about bad loans with banks in a really long time. when will that change? i don't think it changes any time soon, but we should watch that and also watch and see if loan growth really stalls. it's been slower than expected really stalls then we should think about what's happening. >> people are looking at delinquencies on lower income for sure, bit of a spike. >> it is, the reason is how low it got and, you know, the big story here, too, is, all the fed is doing is removing emergency measures we're just trying to get back to

what's typical so we got -- if we go back to what's typical banks will lose money on loans what's been surprising is they really haven't we'll move back to something that's more typical. we have it in our earnings estimates going forward. >> you've given us a lot to watch into next week thank you. >> good to see you. >> thank you. >> when we come back ed lazear will be with rick to talk about the morning's job numbers. session lows, dow down 326 and the s&p down a fulls percent we had long deployments in iraq. i'm really grateful that usaa was able to take care of my family

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group and join rick santelli for a special jobs edition of the san they exchange. rick >> david, yes, there is nothing quite like a jobs friday it especially wouldn't be an exciting jobs friday without the following gentleman joining me ed lazear, thank you for taking time today to join us. >> thank you rick. happy to be here. >> let's start at the top. first of all, what did you think of today's jobs number >> i thought it was basically an average report obviously the headline number looked a little bit low but i always tend to smooth these things the number i look at is the three-month number that number, at 200,000-plus is

still about double what we need to keep up with population growth so that tells me that the labor market is still in recovery mode you mentioned earlier on the show -- i was watching you a couple of hours ago. you mentioned that one of the things you look at of course is labor force participation. you said that was the thing that was most interesting to you. i agree with that, although i tend look at its sister number which is actually the employment to population ratio. they are closely related >> every bit as interesting. yeah every bit as interesting continue. >> all i was going to say is we know that number is still low relative to where it could be. that coupled with the fact that job growth in some sense is too high for being at the peak tells me we are still in recovery mode, and you know of course the wage number is interesting as well >> gotcha. now, listen, down on these trading floors and in the offices with people on the keyboards trading there is a lot of edge finding. they try to find a way in that's

a little smarter than the next trader >> right. >> over the last couple of years non-seasonably adjusted data has been combed through like i have never seen it in the almost 40 years i have been in this business today 665,000 was non-seasonably adjusts aif you look at 103. >> yeah. >> private payrolls, i believe that was 102,000 non-seasonably adjusted it was 603,000. is there fair valuable, in your opinion, in scrutinizing these non-seasonably adjusted numbers to give hints about future trends, ed. >> i think there is. that's actually an excellent point, rick. and the reason is this when you think about seasonal adju adjustment, what it does is takes out the average based on historical experience. for example, we know that march is a colder month than july. on average, march is colder. but that doesn't mean that one

particular march isgoing to be 20 degrees colder or 30 degrees colder so by looking at the non-seasonably adjusted numbers you do get a look at how that number deviates from what the historic past has been i would say there is information there. whether we want to use that number in lieu of the seasonably adjusted numbers is another issue. but there is always additional information there. i think that's a good thing to be focusing on >> great we have about a minute and a half left. let's spend the rest talking about wages i love wages, especially thee over year. okay, we had the artificial 2.9 that was revisioned out. really the last time we had 2.9 was in june of 2009. since then, we had three 278s, and today was the sixth 2.6. that's going back to june of '09d i look at 2.7 and say that isn't bad. matter of fact, it isn't bad to

the point of do i really want to look for wage pressures or are we all jumping too far ahead of the game thinking about where we are at in order to keep hiring slightly above the population pressure thatter with going to run into pressure. finish us out ed. >> i think we are not at a stage where we are seeing significant pressure but the fact that wage growth is a bit better than it has been in the past tells us that we are starting to approach the top of the recovery, starting to approach the peak. when we are at the peak, you tend to get pretty significant wage growth. as you know, when you come out of a recession the first thing that happens is job growth picks up then as you got to the more mature stages of the recovery wage growth picks up so i would say it looks like we are getting to the more mature stages of the recovery but we are not yet there. so i'm not particularly concerned about wage pressure. by the way, rick, a point that you have made in the past and that i always focus on as well

is that you want to look at wage growth relative to productivity growth if productivity growth were booming i would say this is no problem at all we will see what those numbers look like. but the fact that we had a decent last quarter of gdp suggests we will have decent productivity numbers again i'm not concerned about that pushing inflation. >> excellent ed, always a pleasure. hope you have a great weekend. carl back to you. >> thank you, you too. >> dow down more than 1% down 300 "squawk alley" starts in a moment

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