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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  April 6, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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correct strike 15 to 30 delta. >> perfect for mike. final call, carter >> final call, speculate on ge it's so bad, it's good. >> use call spreads for that >> dan. >> facebook, i like my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. listen, there is no all clear signal in this market anymore. it can get decked one day then
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hold on the next and then make a stunning recovery all before getting obliterated again like we saw today dow plunging 572%. belie gone are the days where you can say aha, a tradeable baottom. let's put the money to work. no it is all a vicious game of shoots and ladders it sucks you in with how strong it seems to be but that strength is a loosery today's open, the averages looked terrible. and on the verge from turning from red to black and then if you had been at the hopeful mid morning rebound, you got gaffe
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chowing down on what appeared to be a hapless minnow. how do you deal with this kind of environment the key is to recognize that you are only human sense of timing is going to be fallible you can't presume anything than other a good chance that when you buy, when you buy, you're going to be wrong. if you left here yesterday at the closing bell smug, in the belief that the president's tough on china policy might be taking a breather, you learned last night that trump upped the anti on his trade fight. seemed like the contradictory words.
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lesson learned larry is a free trader at heart and not the president. it is okay that we don't have the ability to precisely determine bottoms. you only put some money to work at any given level at any given time and then hold back and buy more i have been recommending this process for actualownersplus.com club members it builds in the element of panic while also husbanding cash while we know has been the king in this volatile environment in the end you want panic working for you. not against you. the mer cural nature of the president's negotiating style coupled with his determination to tame china.
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even if it means hurting the shares of our exporters and hurting the spending power of our consumers, it is a recipe for panic. which is why you need cash available for all time sure, today may seem like another successful retest for lows never the less, come on, a presidential tweet daring the chinese to hit us with more retaliation or a sunday night blast from china with strategy tariffs that hit our largest capitalization stocks. which brings me to next week's game plan. you should know that earning season starts officially in ernest on friday with all of these major banks. what we need to care about on
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monday is china's reaction for will china retaliate with the tariff on the iphone. cat pillar's earth movers? there are a lot of ways they can hit us this is a different market with controversies all over the market i expect china will announce more duties of their own as retaliation of this weekend or early next week and likely to cause more turbulence. at the same time, we got a benign jobs number, not too hot. something called a welcome brack for new chairman it makes you feel like our
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economy is slowing and the tariff will take a meat ax to world trade. toxic combination. and unless we get calming words from the white house or beijing, i expect a replay on monday. i want to know if management believes there will be tariffs on furniture imports we don't make so much furniture anymore in this country, because it is cheaper to make in china gotten to the point where it is exporting its own furniture to the people's republic. unlike many retailers that rely on chinese manufacturers, this company, let's see what they have to say. i think they are going to continue to show little inflation, similar what we got with the employment report
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today. another free pass for pal. we are already hearing on wednesday that bed bath and beyond could report still one more weak number many of its prices aren't competitive with amazon. well, maybe he should listen to this conference calculate. i worry about bed bath because it is the type of enterprise that i used to go all the time now i just go to amazon. thursday we hear from black rock the huge private equity fund that has enormous etf business that is what we care about, mutual fund. in the glass has gotten too risky for most people. finally friday, we get results from the big boys, jpmorgan,
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wells fargo, citigroup we want to know about possible increases in buy backs an and dividends, the earnings reports we have been receiving have been almost fantastic so earning season needs to be great for any hope of balancing off the weakness with exception for wells fargo, these banks should be able to tell fantastic stories and if they can't do, that one longer thanning season. with the president who is no longer as friendly to the stock market as he once was, in other words, be on your toes, carry a lot of cash. better prices than you might otherwise deserve. let's go to mark in new jersey. >> caller: hi, jim, just wanted
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to ask a question of bx. i want to know what you think of that stock. >> look, that is about a distribution, and i am glad we talked about black stone, this is the private equity part, they are separate companies no they didn't get that named after schwartzman, about you i would say a good investment we have been recommending for a long time. not great, but good and i would stick with it. bob in new york. >> caller: about a week ago you mentioned that you aggressively bought paypal. now that amazon has indicated they are interested in competing with vemo? >> no. look, okay, the stock is down a lot. will amazon come up and hurt
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venmo the idea that -- to my friend versus actually entering into my phone, i don't know. i love voice recognition but do you mind ryan >> caller: thanks for taking my car. my question is about take-2 interactive. with it being a highly volatile stock. >> i don't know if you heard, talking terrific things about east port. it has become crowded. there are a lot of other companies that are literally coming up with a lot of sports, i like esports carry cash, be ready to buy slowly on the way down and remember, we will get through
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this together. on "mad money," tariff jitters ripping through this market. then the obituary for retail has been written many times. plus, what does the market fear index about how long this will last an unemotional opinion on the state of the market. so stick with cramer >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something
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head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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on a day when the s&p sheds over 2%, i want you to understand how hedge managers thi think. i want you to understand what they are up to at the moment these hedge funds are putting on what we call our paired trades, betting against one company which huge chinese exposure and going on with a similar company with similar to no company business in our industry now, obviously it is hard to predict what will happen when you pit the author of the art of the deal against guys who have been studying the art of war for their whole lives.
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in political terms we know the president will pronoun pronounce himself the vicar regardless the president has started to acknowledge that these companies may need to make sacrifices because it is the only way to teach china government how to play fair. so it is not like this is the end of the world and let's be honest, he did just give corporate america a gigantic tax cut the problem with the statement is it implies there will be earnings per share repercussions and this is something we are not prepared for which means hedge fund managers are going to shoot first and ask questions later. before i get into specific, i want to make sure that i am not
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advocating this strategy for home gamers. i don't agree with the underlying assumptions this is a piece about showing you how the game is played and first what i would do is look at the restaurant business. we know that yum brand split into yum china and everywhere else it seems like they almost created the separation for a hedge fund bear trade. yum china and go long go yum or their state run media starts going after pizza hut or kfc wouldn't be the first time it tends to kill the numbers on the other hand yum brand is doing fabulous in the rest of the world. and steady numbers from surprising taco bell put them together and you have the making of one of the greatest pair trades involving
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china. second, if we put tariffs on chinese machinery, i know many hedge fund managers who believe china will do the same to caterpillar. and these funds will short caterpillar stocks and go long the stock of the united rentals. you still get the benefit of strong sales and infrastructure spending in america. still, i can see people doing this, i think it is a dangerous trade because if trump can settle with the chinese, caterpillar stock will take off. how about this one coffee now the chief growth engine of worldwide engine starbucks, happens to be china. that is where the real growth is personally, i thought the chinese will retaliate against
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t starbucks. but if they get really, really angry, you will see managers go short starbucks and go long duncan brands or mcdonald's. a triple venti cappuccino with skim tariff. now i made a joke earlier on squawk on the street, maybe it is time to long apple bees and short apple. of course i was being facetious. but apple has a lot of china exposure i could see china, i happy to pate putt them in the same sentence, i see china going after apple because it would hurt us in the pocketbook. even if it makes no sense economically right now we have a president who doesn't seem to care about what american companies he hurts
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while trying to get china to change the behavior. these paired trades make sense for home gamers, i think the strategy is way too risky. if trump manages to make the deal with the chinese these stocks would become crowded shorts and i would be annihilated. if you understand to how it is going, swatwatch -- much more " money" ahead i am eyeing the bright spots come on, i eyed the negatives yesterday. guess what, don't miss my take on the renaissance in the apparel space. could tough tariff talk have a lasting impact on your
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portfolio? another brutal decline today across the averages. 1% ng one company up over20 and you may have never heard of it i will reveal the name just ahead. let's begin. yes or no? do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists?
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look, you know me. on a really bad day it is important to remember not everything is terrible and some things are going right and will work out. encouraging themes here. if you had the fortitude to look for them even when the market is being put in the woodchiper. today we need to address the
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unlikeliest of themes. something to fall back on if we keep getting slammed i am calling it the u.s. apparel renaissance. while their stocks have performed markably well, i think they have much more room to run. after needed shake up of many players, we have another one today. the remaining ones are in bull market mode. and you know, like i say at the end of every show, there is always a bull market somewhere what makes me so confident we are experiencing a renaissance in the apparel business, why don't we do this, let's tick through these cheerful stories and go one by one. the biggest of the bunch nike. put on another 10% just
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year-to-date part of the problem is that its footwear division had come under fire from under armour and then adidas it is apparel that is driving things right now ceo mark parker one of my absolute faves called out a major source of strength here is a snip of what he told us in the conference call. we are one of the largest apparel companies in the woin te world. we are very excited about some of the performance invasion coming in apparel. when you look at the numbers they bury out, apparel, 13% clip next up, pvh, over the last 12 months, this stock has gained
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over 50% has been crushing it for a while. when the company last reported a little over a week ago, it became clear these guys are completely on fire calvin klein, up 22% those are great. not only were the actual results phenomenal but management forecasted high double digit growth. he painted a positive picture. >> we have been chasing inventory and going into growth. planning the first quarter of next year up high double digits. in the high teen. >> i don't think we have ever heard that is what you are planning for. >> the fourth quarter you touched on and it seems like we are set up for the first quarter. halfway through it and in
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strong >> look, it is not just a pure play apparel makers that are agnostic of where they sell stuff. even like lululemon fiery. two weeks ago, delivered a complete blow out. sent stock up 15% over the next coupling of days revenue 18%. great earnings guidance was substantially higher than looking for. 2018 is looking very good so far. store traffic accelerating at the same time many downtrodden apparel plays are making a comeback. now they are beloved michael kors, stocks up nearly
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75%. mens outerwear, sweaters and how about ralph lauren, for a time that was an even worst performer than kors. it is up 40% over the past year. company is still struggling, but a huge improvement for rl. when you listen to management talk about initiatives to turn this around, it sounded plausible. more important, many categories are doing well denim business is on fire. then there is tap tapestry former known as coach. it has changed a lot in the last few years. picking up rival handbag maker
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kate spade ceo victor louis urban outfitters has been roaring. up 10% for the year. these guys are incredibly enthusiastic about the apparel renaissance. ceo says, talk about a major change in fashion. he tells us that get this, typically, in a macro change like this, in a change of silhouette, my experience is that it lasts anywhere from seven to 12 years, last time we had a change was 2006, 2007. and so most of the benefits, sure, we consider ourselves a fashion leader lots of folks copy and i would expect it to benefit us from anywhere from three to seven years. i don't know, six or seven
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years, that's what he said holy cow three to seven years i mean, geez, that would be fantastic. and then there is the f corp, house of apparel brands, timberland, vans vf has made a ferocious comeback up 58% since hitting lows. that is after the recent pullback of what i called complicated quarter. top three brands up 8% real strength over seas. i wouldn't be surprised if even under armour could make a comeback now that ceo kevin plank is focused laser like on this core business what i have to tell you, when i look back at it, i think he made a cold shot. and if you are worried about
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chinese sourcing and tariffs, these companies are adept at shifting business. for ages china has been losing textile jobs to vietnam. don't let a day like this scare you away from stories that are working. these stocks are worth picking at into any weakness we might get on monday, because right now they have the best fundamentals of any large groups in the entire stock market. let's go to george in ohio. >> caller: yeah, i was wondering about walmart stock with the tariffs going on, they import a lot from china and i didn't know if the stock is going it be a stable stock for the next three to five years, i have a 12 year investment and i was getting concerned. >> you are going to need that time and you are right to mention china sourcing we are
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concerned about that mo they are the world's country's largest grocer dramatic acceleration, and it freaked everybody out. and i don't see it necessarily picking up i like other retailers more than that much more "mad money" ahead on tackling the technicals. get a sense of what the future could hold for this market and it is surprising looking for a home in the retail space, i may have a home that can play tonight's edition of the "lightning round." stick with cramer.
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another day, another sell off? another brutal day where we got slammed by further acceleration in our trade war from china, i don't think we need to do a special friday off the charts and take this market's temperature. and when the averages are falling apart, the things to focus on is the sb oechcboe vol
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index, the vix let's check in to find out if we have a repeat of february's vix motivated horror show on our hands. remember the volatility index is a good proxy for terror in the market today it roared higher today up over 13% that is the old linkage, but we have lots of traders who like to short the vix. borrow money as they go long whenever the vix spikes against it, they have to unwind their position to meet their margin calls and that is what killed us
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in early february. while no longer the main driver of the decline so what does mark sebastian think of our current predicament? long story short, he thinks the action the vix is signaling that we might be bottoming despite today's horrendous action. what makes him think this action is less worry some that it might seem first take a look at this pair of charts, the s&p 500 and the volatility index since the beginning of the year. we know this market caught fire in january, peaked at the end of january we know it has become very challenging since then. if you look at this vix, you might have known what was going to happen. you could have seen the february house of pain coming sebastian is all about using the vix to figure out where the s&p might be heading
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not coincidence, it is future. when that correlation fallings aparts it means the market is about to change its trajectory and that is what happened in january. the vix was creeping higher along with t in other words, wha while the market was rising, the fear level was rising too. the vix climbed from nine to lep 11 according to sebastian, this was a major red flag the vix should not be rallying 20% while the market is on fire. the vix is based on option prices some people were getting real nervous. and hindsight, the nervous nellys right, when the s&p broke down, the vix surged to 40 this was that amazing move aided
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by short selling and ended up having the first serious selloff since 2015 bottomed on february 9, the day before my birthday, and things since have been choppy every time it seems like we are getting the groove back, it breaks down. just like how the vix was behaving strangely in january, it is now doing the same we have seen the s&p test the february lows four times now in the last two weeks but each time the volatility index came nowhere near its february highs sebastian points out it has only touched 26 twice the fear gage doesn't go off the charts i mean, shouldn't it be doing that it isn't
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just as important, the situation looks similar to the bottom in 2015 old enough to remembering that take a gander of these two charts back then when the s&p broke down august of 2015, the vix spiked to about 50 who months later, when the s&p tested those lows, the vix peaks at 30. after that, what happened, the s&p came roaring back. if we follow that pattern from 2015, sebastian wouldn't be surprised if the s&p could climb back to 2800 at a minimum. call that man bullish. he also likes what he sees in
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the vivi x for sebastian, this is a sign of the panic and it makes him think we could be headed for a real run higher don't you think it is interesting. sebastian believes we may have already bottomed and the recent pain is the market retesting its low before working its way higher my fear is this situation looks similar to 2015 because they could go the other way back then, china stabilized the stock market through heavy handed state intervention this time it is the escalating trade war with china 2015 could play it out congress could let america default its obligation unthinkable. we could protesting these lows until we reach some kind of resolution
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it could be torturous. here is the bottom line, the charts sberpded by mark sebastian, focusing on the fact that the lows keep holding he thinks we may have already bottomed and a rally could be right around the corner. and i check with him all day day. i continue to recommend cautious strangers things have happened and "mad money" is back over the brack.
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade it is time it is time for a special dow down "lightning round" on "mad money" sell, sell, sell we'll play this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning
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round on cramer's "mad money." rik rick in california. >> caller: i discovered this other airline last year, been the best airline for three and a 1/2 years, it feeds american, united. >> what would it be? >> caller: sky west airline. >> good airline. don't be greedy. the group has come down a lot. i am the southwest air guy, but i like that let's go to yitzi in california. >> caller: blackberry is down more than 15%. >> that's okay we like the turn it doesn't get enough credit ron in wisconsin. >> caller: love your show. how are you doing? >> good. how about you? >> caller: not bad i got some shares in apache. >> my travel trust sold apache
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and we didn't do good on it. i just don't like the fossil fuel stocks. nick in new jersey. >> caller: booyah, you are such a beast. i love it. >> a beast what's going on. >> caller: question about cwh. i thought i was a champ, and the thing is getting smashed. >> we have to have on the show we have to get him here. she agrees we are good. rob in new jersey. >> caller: wall street booyah. >> what is shaking >> caller: i lost a lot of money this week. amd and micron i want to get out of tech. what are your thoughts on philip morris. >> we discussed this in travel
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source club. too many guys who are working on the product right now. it is the single bit of cause of debt susan in louisiana. >> caller: booyah, you are awesome. talking about pets. >> i like that far more -- stop it i like idex. and ramona lights. going to paul in illinois. >> caller: i looked at high dividend stock and did some purchase where do you see the stock going for a long-term? >> seven% yield. better income producer than
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most but i have got to tell you, not my cup of tea, real estate investment trust not quite there. mar mary in florida. >> caller: booyah. great grandma home trader from florida. and i am a long-term fan and i follow your advice my question is nov vartis. >> turning the industry upside down i prefer you to be in that and that ladies and gentlemen is and that ladies and gentlemen is the ncsicoluon of the "lightnin. hm. i'm thinking... will i have enough? should i change something?
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well, you're asking the right questions. round" >> announcer: lightning round is round" you may need glasses though. yeah. schedule a complimentary goal planning session today with td ameritrade. sponsored by td ameritrade.
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even on tough days like today, trying to find stocks that can work in this particular environment. how about this, nobody is worried about the sharp rise in interest rates consider at home, and that s is @home a huge hit the stock did very well today.
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in fact, home hit an all time intraday high. here is a company with more than 150 locations and doing well when it reported two weeks ago, it was a top and bottom high bullish forecast let's take a closer look with the chairman of at home. welcome to mad money. >> thanks for having me. >> report starts by saying home stands out in the home furnishing space healthy home sales how are you able to do that? >> we focus on the customer. so we are the home decor super store. 50,000 items in our store. >> how are you able to do that
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below wayfair. >> private label, private branded. and we have a very efficient low cost real estate and that is how we keep our prices low. >> when we hear about malls in trouble and real estate investment trust closing the doors to some of these, this is your opportunity for cheap real estate it is fantastic for us most of our stores are second generation real estate when other stores close, we see that as an opportunity most people are not competing against us for real estate and we have the deepest pipeline, we can get to 600 stores nationwide. >> you are doing mid single digit comps in an environment where most people are doing 1-2. that is value and treasure hunt for you. >> all the styles of home decor. everybody can come in and shop
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together the millennials have been a part we leaned to over a third of our customers are under the age of 30. we try to hit every life chapter for folks. >> they like bargains and today president trump is talking about bigger tariffs let's say our trade deficit with china happens to be furniture. what happens if he puts big tariffs on furniture. >> we have been watching this for years. only 16 of our thousand items are touched by the tariffs we just moved to direct sourcing that is going to grow. we have been moving and migrating to philippines and thailand we have the opportunity to be nimble. >> you have a different online
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strategy you are not trying to recreate and you are not trying to recreate directly with amazon. and still using fliers you have an efficient website. and it does direct you to the stores and people are okay with that. >> we carry our assortment online you can pre shop 50,000 items online. you can see the dimensions of it we have a great platform and our customers know what we have and compare it against anybody and come to the store and buy it. >> big data is important to you. the old line furniture stores don't know what that is. >> we added a loyalty program. 1.5 members of our loyalties program and just started last august. >> i am glad you are on tonight because i am trying to stress domestic companies not going to have a problem with the tariff in china.
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you said you were going to source away. have millenials that like it and you are one of a handful so congratulate you on what you are doing. are doing. chairman and ceo of at home. [hero] i'll take my chances. h-o-m-e. but i'm not standing still... and with godaddy, i've made my ideas real. ♪
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♪ i made my own way, now it's time to make yours. ♪ ♪ everything is working, working, just like it should ♪ ♪ at&t gives you more for your thing. your snapping pics all day, all night thing.
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your gettting the low-light, just right thing. ♪ introducing the samsung galaxy s9 with low light camera. now 50% off. more for your thing. that's our thing. luster, bombast, we don't know and that is real problem and that is why i am saying keep some cash. we have a lot of cash for the tryst almost the most we have ever had i can't do that and not tell you do the same thing. we are going to get through this together just like the other bad times. we are going to make money we are going to make money i am jim cramer and i will see
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>> welcome to the shark tank, where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these you monday sclaither for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ is jason lucash and michael szymczak with a creative new technology business. ♪ i'm jason... and i'm mike, and our company is origaudio. we love to travel. we're total travel junkies and have been all over the world. and we also love music. and the great thing is, our company combines both.

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