>> there is a regulation for it. >> of course >> everything. although it's funny because it comes after steven spielberg said maybe they shouldn't be able to be at the oscars. >> excellent point. >> people are trying to dig in their heels. >> i suspect netflix will somehow come out on top. certainly the shares are up. that does it for us. thank you, mike, as always "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. life live overlooking times square i'm melissa lee. david seaburg, dan nathan, and guy adami. tax day is tomorrow. and it could provide a huge boost. the man behind the tax selling theory tom lee will join us to explain how high it could go plus, it was a wild weekend for elon musk, on twitter at least. tweeting onion articles and even pictures of tequila. this is a company faces new safety concerns at its production facilities. we've got a special report but first we start off with netflix, the best performing with the s&p 500 this year, the

stock is soaring after hours the streaming giant says it added two million subscribers in the u.s. that beat expectations. shares are now just dollars away from its all-time high so is the stock unstoppable? is the fang trade back on? >> the netflix trade has never been aught off, quite frankly. i don't know if it's unstoppable. david speaks to this i thought the domestic ads ridiculously strong. just when you think they can't grow anymore in the united states that. >> grow in the united states honestly, i thought the international ads maybe a little disappointing, given what they've done previously. but when you add both of them up, it shows ads that people i don't think were looking for the stock is higher now by $14 or so dollars. i think it continues higher. the downside will be, and tim will bring it up, they continue to burn through cash and at a certain point, that becomes a problem. you know what? i think they're at a point now in their life cycle where they can start to slowly raise prices, and people aren't going to go away. >> sorry >> i agree i think reed hastings has it down

the sort of subscriber beat expectations game, he has nailed it and the stock is going to continue to work until that ends when is that going to end? flip a coin in the air i can't imagine it ends over the next several quarters. they've done a great job partnering up the likes of t-mobile, adding new subscriptions through that franchise. and look, the momentum here is solid. one thing to point out about this stock versus the rest of fang, facebook, amazon, google, amazon is much more top-line centric. top line growth is all that matters in that story. fundamentals matter for facebook and google much differently than they matter for the likes of a netflix. i think this may not necessarily suggest that all is clear for the rest of fang but it is actually a very good indicator. >> we mention that in the past they have traded as a cohort buts that has broken down, especially with the facebook revelations in the past month or. >> so truer words have never been spoken by david the fundamentals don't matter. but the way, only the value i added on netflix is being a

contrarian indicator for the last year. this is not based upon fundamentals you can't make an argument on the content side you can't make about a argument on the distribution side. i don't think you can even make an argument in terms of the technology itself. but if you want to think someone that is so far ahead of themselves, facebook has given facebook this critical mass advantage netflix is clearly now the standard for the industry and one that even the big boys like disney are foaling. but no, i can't buy it here. sorry. >> it is trading on fundamentals they're exclude including a couple of fundamental facts. guy mentioned negative free cash flow they're guiding to 3 to $4 billion loss year as content costs were going up. last year they spent $6 billion on content right now their revenue knicks is 50-50 u.s. and international. but the international one is really the run that is growing right now you can say to yourself if you don't care about negative free cash flow, then things are going great they have 125 million paid subscribers. but they don't care about it

now, tim the stock is up 65% this year. it was up 70% last year. so what imoop saying is they may have this moat were investigators don't care they haven't cared about it in amazon so at some point -- >> here is whati think about the cash burn. here is why it's working they're actually winning emmys they're gets somewhere on the content. if they were not getting anywhere with their program. >> and not adding subscribers. >> already, these guys bought a lot of on tent near its peak but good for them. that's my point. at some point where do you catch up >> every other industry -- think about this, guys their asps year-over-year went up i understand why it's being bought i understand why it's been bought for the last year they just booked their fastest year-over-year revenue growth in a quarter since 2011 that's pretty remarkable for a company this size right now. so to me they're doing everything right, and people don't care about the cash burden that's all i'm saying. >> agreed. you have ford estimates looking

to 2024. you look at the most aggressive street estimates that exist, and ascribe a multiple that is in line and you can't even get to the stock price where it is right now. >> we were just saying how they're very different businesses so why should we apply the same multiple across the board. >> you shouldn't you should not i'm just supporting a fact when you look at the fundamental, it doesn't support it at all. the fundamental story does not support the valuation at all it is all about beat and raise, subscriber beat and raise. what is if to come what's to come is essentially in the story. and that is the international subscriber growth in gaining significant steam on that. it's really about getting scale. >> should subscription price be cheaper than hbo probably should it trade, the subscription price >> you mean how much you and i pay? >> how much you and i pay. a lot of people probably don't realize how much they're paying because it's embedded in their bill i think reed hasting can start redirection of prices and people won't go anywhere.

this question. how far behind is 8 ball is disney when you see net ads like this in the united states and disney wants to go down this road it's so late >> disney is so far behind and suddenly this is not a content story. disney has the best content in the world. they don't need to answer to anybody. i think about this it gets back to a point. what is netflix's value in they're in every home. they come preload. everybody has a subscription guy to a ski lodge, i log into my netflix or dan's netflix account. >> that's why my queue is a disaster. >> it's weird. the bottom line here, this is why it's even more outrageous to say that there is no competition. these guys are going to do this forever. >> tim, here, i'll just say this at some point reed hastings is going to stop broadening out they're going to go away from video and buy spotify or something like that. and people are going to go oh my goodness >> that's what would happen if i were them. i would start using any

currency. >> it doesn't own content. >> it could go out there and build it and effectively they could buy spotify. they have platform, the installed base the same things that people are rewarding netflix for this is my point. >> you know why? they haven't been good at it >> it's not in their dna and the multiple is reflective of it. if they started to do it and execute properly, the stock would get worthy of it. >> what's my nickname? >> q-tip. >> q-tip has competition, but everybody buys the brand. >> they may negativity knot buy q-tips because in tend if it functions the same. >> i'm getting the real thing. because don't want to put those fugazi q-tips in my ear. shows. >> that relevant to this conversation you're saying people -- is that a legitimate question or what? >> netflix has becoming --

netfl netflix, no matter what the service, you will get netflix. >> where that is wrong is this if their content is not good, then people won't be netflixing and chilling anymore. >> true. if it's all crap, nobody is going to watch it. that's the bottom line >> but once more, think about the evolution. the content that they bought or the content they produced? >> produce. >> not for me. i can tell you right now >> on the kid front, i would imagine that it's -- >> kids or i can watch old rock meanteries behind the music >> dude, it's weirder than that. >> think of testify losing remember when amazon was cited as having a spending problem netflix had that issue and people were arguing how much they were spending on content. now it's coming to do them some serious justice. content is king. scale is king and they've got it. chart maersk carter worth with his instant earnings announcements. hi, carter what are you looking at? >> looking at in flicks but earnings. >> general one thing that's key is the

stock hasn't quite made to it prior high it was a monday. it was march 12th. and it was 333.98. it got as high as 332. my hunch is that on all approaches to that high of monday five weeks ago, right calls or trim into the move on the open let's pull back from here and end from here. let's talk about really the most important price action so far into the earnings season it's the big bags, right you've covered this over the last several days. but one to really look at in detail these are all in fact five of the 11 biggest financials reported and basically, it's been very, very good earnings all have beaten but the price action has been very poor. you see the big names here there is a second slide just to round it off but this is the real point that on average, these big names have dropped 3.3% on the day following beats. that's not good action moving on to the market total. we've had 52 stocks in the

russell 3000 report since april 1. you have 31 beats, 60% misses. and then of course in line but it's not whether you beat or miss it's about how you react to the beat or miss, of course. and this is what we've had it's been fairly muted the average performance of the beats up a little bit. but the average performance of the misses down 7.6% and that's heavier outlier behavior than normal all right. back to this big fellow. let's draw the lines let's put in the stats first okay moving on to the stats this is what netflix has done. all quarter reporting period since its inception. when the stock was down on the day going into earnings, as was the case today, typically it was down the following day and when it was up, so this is going to actually contradict this pattern, meaning it was down today, but it's indicated up in the night market

and then finally, alliance here we go what we know is that the stock checked back to the top of the channel that it's been in. i mean, it's lived in this channel for the better part of three years. and right now we are toying with the high again, my hunch is to trim it if it touches the high of 33, right calls. >> carter comes over all right. come on over, carter >> we're not done. >> hardly ever but thanks, ryan, for bringing the chair in >> good stuff. >> so is the bottom line here that you believe that earnings beats will have much more muted reactions on the markets the bar is much higher >> that's right. it's an overwhelming consensus the narrative has been the same. the tax cuts, a nonchart thing, but that's what's driving it the low unemployment and trade wars, maybe, maybe not that everything is going to get saved by this quarter. and the earnings consensus for 16, 17% earnings growth. and we have great numbers out of

the financials which are the lifeblood of the system. second biggest sector by weight and most important by theme. reactions are terrible that's not great you'll have an outlier like netflix. but the presumption is that the earnings are not going the save anything >> in terms of the fang stocks, the correlation to once upon a time used to be pretty tight this is just the momentum-driven technology area of the markets so they traded along with a lot of other big cap technology stocks at this point, how far broken down is this correlation in other words, if we get more beats from amazon and alphabet, could we sort of save the tech sector >> right so we know facebook is leading on the way down. google is the second worse microsoft has been fine. apple middling, and then the two outli outliers maybe not much progress with the fang group >> so sorry. it's the first year in a couple

we've had a real market where where you could trade it we have levels here. you were looking at the russell. if i look at the russell 2000, a pretty perfect double top. if you look at the nasdaq, 7,000 double top the s&p never got there. so we bounced off the lows here. we seem to be in the trading range. do you see us busting out of this range that we've been in here today any time soon >> no. that's sort of the goalpost thesis, that we have this fairly remarkable ten-session plunge from friday the 26th of january to the february 9th low. and we've set goalposts for quite some time. but always the lower goalpost are the ones at risk. >> quickly, transports broke out today. >> big day it was a trucking thing. jb hunt led and all the other truckers followed through. transports have been lagging by so much. maybe it's a catch-up trade. obviously to be watched. >> carter, thank you carter braxton worth we have an update on let's get to john harwood with all the detail. >> as it happens, we have data

both on tech and on tax cuts two, subjects you guys have been talking about. first of all we took the temperature about how people feel about the influence of tech companies. and not surprisingly in the wake of that disclosure of 87 million facebook accounts having been compromised, you have a flour rattle, 37 to 35% of americans saying facebook has too much influence. not so much for the others we checked out. google, amazon, twitter. but it's clear from this data just how extensive these products have integrated themselves in our daily lives. 70% of respondents in our poll say they do google searches daily. 63% own an apple product 50% check 235isbofacebook daily amazon prime members fewer are on twitter what does that add up to there is a growing appetite for some more regulation of those

companies. only 14% say there is too much regulation of tech giants. 37% say we need some more. 37% say it's about right now on tax cuts, which has been the issue that republicans have been hoping would help them hold the congress this fall against that blue wave coming from democrats. tax cuts are not doing so well right now. so they may need to either sharpen their message or get a different issue. 27%, just 1/4 of the american people say the tax cuts were a good idea. 36% say it was a bad idea. and when you lay out potential effects, job creation, boosting the economy, more money in people's pockets, only 39% say they see positive effects from the tax bill on the other hand, if you say what about the deficit, what about the benefits for the wealthy and big corporations 53% say those are negative effects that they see. so the tax cuts are not faring well politically of course economically, and for the stock market, that may be another story altogether, guy. >> and that is a poll of voters,

correct? thinking is a poll of americans with a subset of registered voters so not everyone here was a registered voter 900 sample, 3.27 margin for error in this poll. >> got it. john, thank you. john harwood working on the details of the latest poll guy? >> lots to unravel there what i think about is facebook, the report, april 25th, i believe. i'm hard-pressed to believe they would report a good quarter. you say regulation hurts the little guy, does not hurt the big guy as much. i agree with that i do believe the headwinds are still there for facebook i would sell into it this quarter. a controversial arrest in starbucks philadelphia putting the ceo in a hot seat. did he just give wall street a master class in crisis management what it could mean for the stock. it is make or break point for bitcoin. can they rally after the tax deadline is behind it? tom lee will be here and later, "fast money" friend tony dwyer says there is

a major stock rally ahead. what he's looking at that has him so bullish he'll be here to explain we're live from times square in new york city. more "fast money" after this

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welcome back to "fast money. starbucks in hot water after controversial arrests at one of its stores over the weekend sparked outrage. contessa brewer is in the newsroom with more contessa >> melissa, ceo kevin johnson is in philadelphia today and reportedly will meet with the two men arrested when a starbucks manager called police to report them trespassing

six officers responded and led them out in handcuffs last week. the commissioner says police followed protocol, also asking the men to leave the men refused. reportedly they were there to meet a white acquaintance and had asked to use the rest room but instead were asked to leave. their friend arrived during the arrest and demand answers. the video was posted on social media. >> what did they do? what did they do someone tell me what they did. >> they didn't do anything i saw the entire thing. >> what did they do? >> the ceo calls those arrests reprehensible. starbucks declined to pursue prosecution. and in fact the ceo says some of the training and practices at the company led to this bad outcome. >> in this particular case, the local practice of asking someone who is not a customer to leave the store. and unfortunately then followed by a call to the police. now certainly there are some situations where the call to police is justified. situations where there is violence or threats or disrupti disruption in this case, none of that existed. these two gentlemen did not

deserve what happened, and we are accountable. i am accountable >> critics, though, continue to call customers to boycott starbucks. and for a second day, protesters demonstrated at the store where the arrest happened that store has now temporarily closed and the manager has left the company. a spokesperson here melissa initially described it as a mutual decision. and then said she misspoke johnson said the blame lies not with the manager but with management by the way, the stock today up just slightly despite the news. >> contessa, thank you contessa brewer. does kevin's swift response build up a bunch of good will? because it's got a pretty good brand. >> first of all, i think starbucks, howard schultz has done a great job of advocating for lower minimum wages, educating his staff, he is putting his people through college. he is clearly leaning towards a

liberal stance on society. so i don't think you can blame and say starbucks is offsides here i don't know i wasn't there but it seems like the police might have overreacted as well so bottom line here, starbucks is a valuation story that people need to get comfortable with and i think at 19 times 2019 numbers, this has actually gotten to a place where this stock is very attractive. >> look, right or wrong, whether they actually made a mistake or not, kevin johnson handled this i think very well. in a very delicate, difficult situation. he reacted immediately he talked about training he talked about the fact that he is going to look at the training and whether or not there needs to be some changes within that strategy i think they executed it well versus other public companies who in the past haven't, who let things linger on they didn't let it linger on a plus for them. >> he said it's my fault he said that. >> get by this pretty quickly and start focusing on that valuation and focusing on the fact that the last two quarterly comps have been disappointing, and the stock has actually reacted very negatively. it's really been stuck in a

range here i don't love the fact that the stock has rallied about 10% over the last couple of months into the print, what do they report in a couple of months. they're seeing declining comps in europe. they're disappointing here that i have a lot of competition from fast foods so to me this thing could continue to be range bound >> april 26th. that's when they report. valuation is compelling. but the last couple quarters have been sort of squishy. it needs to break out above the high we saw about two and a half months ago what is that >> 62 bucks. >> 62 bucks. thank you, dan i'm looking over your shoulder. >> peas and carrots. coming up, elon musk taking to twitter with crazy tweets this weekend all this with more issues with his electric company car pileup. we have a special report i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here is what else is coming up on "fast." as bitcoin bounces up, tom lee, the man who called the rally, is back with an even bolder call on the cryptocurrency that's next. plus, what's the only thing

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♪ higher expectations. the light beer you've been waiting for has arrived. introducing corona premier. welcome back to "fast money. crypto investors everywhere biting their nails ahead of what many see as a key test with the crypto market, tax day more on this make or break moment for crypto. bob? >> and melissa, bitcoin down 4% today, but still staging a mini rally since the bottom the question is why is this happening. bitcoin bottomed on april 6th at about 6,600 after dropping from 11,000 in early march. since bottoming last week, it's up legal 20% and one prominent theory for that march dip is owners of cryptocurrencies had to convert their coin to pay taxes.

it's hard to factor how much it was in the downturn. first, the sell-off began in december, the big sell-off we didn't bottom until february. so maybe tax selling was a factor as we move down again in march. volume did pick up modestly as the march decline began. indicating there was higher levels of selling pressure than in months before that would lend some support to the tax selling idea but it could also just as easily be buyers who bought in february or discouraged when the market again went into a major downtrend in march again, hard to assign clear cause here finally, even if tax selling was a factor, it's going take ate lot more than that to decisively turn the trend around. just take a look here. for those you have keeping track of the technicals, i love people trading on technical, we may be in a minor uptrend in the past week look at this log term. we are still in a descending trend line from the december high, and we have not yet broken out of that. we have seen a series of lower priced highs since then. that's a descending. i'd say breaking that trend

line -- and by the way, we'd have to move up above 8700, that would be a major victory for the bulls. now that's about $800 away, not far. but we're certainly heading in that direction back to you, melissa >> all right, thank you very much, bob pisani for more, let's bring in none other than the man behind the bitcoin tax selling strategy tom lee. great to see you >> great to see you guys >> how did you come up with this >> there is quite a lot of discussion in a lot of the crypto groups about the magnitude of tax selling so i think we ended up just taking a lot of these thoughts, putting it into a spreadsheet, and we came up with an estimate that $25 billion would be the tax bill owed to the ires for realized gains for u.s. households, sway windfall for the irs. the most they received in capital gains in any year was $144 billion >> this also implies, though, that most people who are holders had gains as opposed to losses. >> yes and it's actually easier to

trigger capital gains than most people realize if someone bought an alt coin, as soon as they received the coins from an ico, that's taxable. if you sold one token and flipped into another, that's taxable. many events became realized taxable events >> tim, i think you have a good question for tom. >> well, my question is if this is such a global phenomenon in that 2/3 possibly of crypto trading and activity goes on in asia, but again, your numbers say $25 billion alone, if that's u.s., that will move the market but u.s. tax moment for a global industry shouldn't be knocking it down so badly >> it's a great point, but the multiplier of fiat, so a dollar movement to crypto market change is potentially 20 to 25 times. so a $25 billion liquidation is several hundred billion of market cap impact. so it's the nature of crypto being sort of an earlier stage industry it's much more sensitive to fiat flow. >> what do you need to see in

the crypto market in order to make you believe that your theory was correct, that it was tax selling pressure do we need to reclaim a level? >> you know, i would say that we need to see it more dynamic price performance in bitcoin in the next coupe of weeks. one measure is the bitcoin measure index. it's recovered to 34 it's still a little bit above misery, but it's actually come back. >> tom, you're one of the few crypto guys who wears a tie and a jacket that also means that you talk to a lot of institutional investors, right >> yes. >> and a lot of your research is obviously geared to them are you seeing in this year, this downturn getting more interested with the price down 60% from the highs in december because just because it's down, that means there is obviously a lot of selling there has also been buyers is that one of the reasons we're seeing liss volatility even on the downside because there are institutions buying? >> there is clear heads. last december there was this fear and need to get involved with crypto without really doing the work since the start of the work,

there has been real authentic interest from our institutional clients. so we're still doing meetings and teach-ins and providing a lot of resources but there is no not this need to okay, i've got buy it and figure out. now there is folks what are the five, ten-year drivers and that's the kind of holders you want anyways circumstances that mainly custody because there is a custody concern? >> 100%, yeah. >> there is a custody concern and then the regulation issues, right? so jay clayton comes out and makes a comment about every token being teamed a security. maybe he is going the walk his statement back but the reality is how much of an overhang is that still? meaning the s.e.c. >> it's regulatory uncurrent in the u.s. is a big deal at the end of the day, nobody wants to take a career risk putting an instrument in their portfolio that could suddenly be deemed illegal or put them on the wrong side of it i think it's actually not a problem for bitcoin at the moment because it's probably pretty clearly a commodity but custody is a problem nobody really wants to explain that they lost a token somehow

because custody wasn't done correctly. >> in terms of the recent sell-off that we've seen in crypto, tom, does the length of it make you feel better about the potential fwhuns is bounce come >> yes i think one of the things you want to see in a proper bottom is that you have a duration of flatness that causes sentiment to collapse. i think that the sentiment among original even 2014 holders of crypto is terrible right now so i think that -- >> you're talking about the hodel people >> yes, yes. >> people who are in real early in >> it's like hodel with expletives so i think it's actually positive but what's interesting, i don't know if we have a chart here if you look at the 2014 bitcoin bear market which was 405 days, it took 405 days, as you can see here to retrace one month of gains. so bitcoin at the bottom of the 2015 bear market was exactly where bitcoin was in october of

2013 so it peaked in november but it took, you know, in one month of gains, it took 405 days to roll all that back. >> wow >> interestingly, bitcoin a month before the peak was 59, roughly 5900 which is where we are. recently >> tom, good to see you. thank you. tom lee. a fund strat what do you think of the term? >> the technicals look very interesting on both sides. i think this could take a bit longer to bottom out i think bob pisani's chart, you look at this downturn, that's important. if it fails and makes lower lows, you're going back to 5,000. and tom's misery index kind of gets extended a little bit at the end of the day we have a lot of different guesses about crypto there is so much money coming into projects related to it. that's the stuff you want the keep an eye on that's the stuff if you're thinking about a five-year, ten-year timeline. >> consensus as an company, they're an incubator

they put companies on the ethereum blockchain. they're getting calls off the hook they've grown to 700 people. this is an amazing, amazing platform they're building out there. again, i think it's about custody. i think it's a matter of time for regulation to actually look at these and say they're not they're utility tokens and give them the all clear, and you're going to see valuations rip. still ahead, elon musk having another wild weekend on twitter, posting photos of tequila, talking about bouncy houses the tesla's bizarre twitter antics just as distracting from the stock? we've got the details. plus, transport soaring today on the heels of strong earnings it could bsiale gning the all clear for the broader market we will break it all down. more "fast money" right after this

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welcome back to "fast money. tesla ceo elon musk having another wild weekend on twitter as tesla shares sit in a bear market fill lebow is in chicago with all the details. hi, phil. >> melissa, if you were following elon on twit their weekend, you certainly were entertained to say the least here are some of the tweets that got a fair amount of attention some serious, some not so serious. let's start with this one. this is gonna sound crazy, but spacex will try to bring rocket upper stage back from orbital

velocity using a giant party balloon. and guess how they're going to bring it back? they're going to land on a bouncy house he was also testing tesla tech lap. this comes after friday when the company said basically look, he said in the tweet queer going to be profitable q 3 and q 4. remember, at the same time what you're dealing with when you look at tesla for the investors is the negative headlines that have been coming out regarding production of the model 3 as well as production at tesla's plant in fremont, california reveal out with an investigative piece today that essentially says look, tesla has been underreporting worker injuries tesla out with a statement this afternoon. when we asked him about it, saying what they portray as investigative journalism is in fact an idealogically motive aid tack by an extremist organization working directly with union supporters to create a calculated disinformation campaign against tesla one last thing as you take a

look at shares of tesla. the boring company that's elon musk's side project. just filed paperwork for a equity private placement to raise $112.5 million, melissa. most of that money, 90% will be coming from elon musk. the rest from early employees at the boring company as they continue to explore either transporting vehicles via some type of sled underground or perhaps elon musk's version of the hyperloop. >> yeah. they've got a pretty good hat business so far, phil. thanks a lot, phil >> you bet. >> phil lebeau in chicago. time for a new game. we like games here we're calling it -- >> elon musk or reality star >> so this is how it works i'll read a few tweets and the traders will have to guess whether it was tweeted by elon musk, the ceo of tesla, or a reality tv star. >> wow okay >> tweet number one says what a troll, me? how dare you, sir! tim? >> no question, this was snooki last night on the jersey shore

reunion. >> elon musk a reality star? it was elon musk himself >> oh. i thought i heard snooki say that >> next tweet here. >> got to love snooki. >> next tweet here i'd tell you how i feel, but i'd be sending you a handwritten novel. musk or reality star >> i'm going to say reality star. >> which one >> i don't know which one. i'm guessing. >> i'm saying reality star. >> reality star. holly madison. tv reality star. good guess it could have gone either way. tweet number three tweet number three i killed it again! what city will i go to next? i duno at one point my possibilities are endless. wow, speechless. thanks you god >> that's obviously elon musk. >> really? obviously. okay what's the answer? answer >> play the game, dan! >> he said elon musk >> got it wrong.

>> nobody plays by the rules >> he did play the rule. he said it was elon musk james kennedy. i don't know who that is >> what is he famous for >> a reality star. anyway, that's another show. literally. final tweet, your cruel taunts cut me deep, deep. but i love you too. >> elon musk done, bang >> can we comment on the stock here >> hold on >> elon musk >> all right the point of this game was fun and laughs, number one but number two, the fact that we can't necessarily tell if it's elon musk or reality tv star, is that a problem >> here is the other fact. it's not a problem he owns 20% of the stock you know who owns the second most amount? fidelity owns 10%. and they don't sell. so at the end of the day -- chirks be as loony as he wants. >> yeah. and they love it >> why would fidelity love this? fidelity is a button up ivory tower? >> i don't say they love it. but they're in it for a long

haul i think it's a problem. that's not what a ceo does and i think that real investors -- >> what, we have a president who sits in the white house -- >> that's not what a president should do either >> they don't necessarily give cash flow and profitability guidance and there he is talking about it on twitter to me that's not necessarily what a ceo should be doing if he is going to put guidance out there, do it the correct way. make sure people are aware of the venue he is going to put guidance on. don't go after goldman sachs. >> you -- >> i think it's fine on twitter. but you can't be a reality tv star and the ceo of one of the largest market capital companies in the world >> you would think i would -- i dig -- i totally dig it. >> no, no, i would guessed that you would. >> i get it. but it's 2018. he is a genius he is a visionary. >> what about the strategy is brilliant? this is a guy who is having trouble with credibility right now in terms of anything he promised. >> he just said they're going to

be cash flow positive and progressive in the third quarter. their production numbers seem to be surprising people the fact that the stock was down today was upsetting. but you trade it on the long side >> why is the stock at $100? >> because the markets are 2% from a ten-year bull market all-time high. >> no one ever questioned automation and the mile. >> capitalization is free. >> they thought it would be fine >> he is talking about struggles with automation needing more manpower essentially in the model. the only thing people worried about is cash flow capital, whether or not they had enough and, you know, i think that was the biggest headline risk. now i think there is cracks in the foundation worry about this company going forward. that was a great game, by the way, mel >> we'll try it another time. >> i enjoyed that a lot. >> play by the rules next time >> i've already played definitely by the rules. coming up, earnings kicking into high gear as the number of names get ready. which one the traders are buying and selling. plus, bub buckle your seat

belt becauseony tdwyer says stocks are about to soar to new highs. we'll tell you what has him so bullish. more "fast money" still ahead. with a $500,000 life insurance policy. how much do you think it cost him? $100 a month? $75? $50? actually,duncan got his $500,000 for under $28 a month. less than a dollar a day. his secret? selectquote. in just minutes, a selectquote agent will comparison shop nearly a dozen highly-rated life insurance companies, and give you a choice of your five best rates.

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but did you know that only 12% of e-waste is recycled? and many large electronics retailers will recycle e-waste for you. so go and trade in your old stuff for a cleaner planet. now that's an upgrade. welcome back to "fast money. hedge fund legend carl icahn making a second big sale in a month. our leslie pickers live in the newsroom with all the details.

hi, les. >> hey, melissa, carl icahn in selling mode they were selling tropicana entertainment which owns casinos and resorts for $1.85 billion. gaming and leisure properties. a reit is buying the real estate while a colorado resorts is buying the hotel and gaming operations the deal comes after icahn sold federal mobile for $5.4 billion last week. the two deals comprise $7.3 billion total compared with less than $1 billion worth of asset purchases this year. 2018 represents the largest value for icahn sales, going back at least seven years, according to data pulled by idea logic. does carl icahn know something we don't know about the markets? he said multiple times he didn't like to predict whether the market will go up or down in the short-term but take a listen to what he said last month on cnbc. . >> i am somewhat, as i've said

before, somewhat concerned about the overall market i think there are a lot of variables that you have to worry about. but i've said -- you know, i think -- i think tinvesting in the market is really a very difficult game. >> we reached out the icahn's office on whether his recent sales are a signal he believes the market will fall he we did not hear back. either way it doesn't hurt to free up cash amid lagging returns icahn returned 3%. >> all right leslie picker, thank you guy adami has known carl icahn for a very long time. >> friend of the show. >> friend of the show. what do you think it means >> if carl is selling something, you should take notice leslie hit the nail on the head at the end icahn enterprises comes out, that's trader talk

this was a 140ish stock several years ago. it's currently trading $60 as tim pointed out on a broader market within a whisper of an all-time high. although carl is a genius, because he is selling something doesn't necessarily mean it's the right thing to do. just look at the performance of ipo over the las years or so >> uncle carl might be selling but the next guest says the market low is. in joining newscast now someone of wall street's biggest bulls. >> uncle tony. >> uncle tony that is so disturbing. >> uncle tone. >> tony two knuckle. >> why do you think we've seen the lows >> mel, throughout this corrective period, we've talked about the shock drop indicator we use which is based on the vix. and i think we have a graphic of it but what we did back in january is you looked at times where you get the vix ten-weeked rate exchange to jump in other words, you have a real shock drop and that's what happened to the february 9th low and what happens, once you do

that, you go into an interim corrective period where you bounce and then go back and retest the low, which we talked about on the show. well, then what? you know that it's the low historically, when this has happened and that ten-week rate of change on the vix drops from 125 back below zero, it goes negative the low has been in place. so it's not my opinion it's not my gut feel, because that's good at being wrong it's just the historical data what happens when you get a shock drop in the market that spikes the volatility and then the volatility falls back off. >> you also said we're going to see new highs in the coming months is that based on historical d a data >> same thing. once you get below zero, i looked at times where you got below zero on that ten-week rate of change, the vix continued lower below 15 and the s&p 500 made a new 52-week high or regained what it lost in under four months. >> so tony, let me ask you this. >> sure. >> do you think market participants are underpricing the market for a constitutional crisis

i think this is a real question. i think investors are sleepwalking through something that could be significant this year if you go back and look in 1973, you had the october 20th saturday night massacre. >> yep >> the market had just made highs, okay, a couple of months earlier. it declined 50% between the highs peak to trough to when nixon resigned in '74. and we've had two 50% peak to trough declines. >>the current environment similar to what has happened before like in 1998 where you get a nasty -- if that came to play, you would get a nasty sell-off but again, that '73-'74 was preceded by an u curve, shut down credit and you were in a recession and a spike in commodity prices. >> let me take dan's scenario and take the extraordinary stuff out of it. how about they just lose the house? >> i don't think that -- that is already assumed. >> you think that's in the market >> yeah, i do. >> wow >> think about this, tim people talk about what's in the market you would have to have some kind

of economic catastrophe at this point, which means a total shutdown in credit and diving somehow into recession where a chinese slowdown, a european debt crisis and slow credit growth in the u.s. didn't do it. so some kind of catastrophe to not hit the $155 number we have out there because of the tax cuts and again the economy is going public you're at 17 times now so you've gone from 20 to 17 times. i would make the case instead of on 2018 numbers. so attend of this year, if you make 155 and the tape is where it is right now, you're at a 17 multiple so you've contracted three multiple points. so what's in the market? you have to make the case that earnings are going to tank this year to make the case that only the good news is discounted. i'm saying the bad news is actually discounted to some degree. >> right >> would anybody on set here, we've been friends for a while, be shocked if the republicans lost the house no way . >> all right tony, thank you.

tony dwyer guys what do you think? >> in december tony came on, and basically, things have played out exactly how you said you said you're going see some volatility into the new year you're going make a low. market rallied off that low. you want the retest. we got a retest. now you say you're going to make new highs. you've been right so far it stands to reason he is going to continue to be right. still ahead, traders are bet on a breakoufor t one dow stock this week. we'll give you the name and tell you what has them so excited more "fast money" up next. xfinity watchathon week is back!

and with free access to tv's hottest shows from netflix, showtime, starz, hbo and more, you'll want to tap out of your regular life and go binge. for you. go binge. i got this. thank you. call back next week. amy are these timesheets still... you're not amy. i am now. [snaps] don't miss the greatest week in tv. show me watchathon. binge now with on demand or the xfinity stream app until april 22nd.

welcome back to "fast money. a number of big names gearing up to report earnings this week and the options market is applying some pretty interesting moves for one dow stock. dan, what did you see? >> so ibm, let's talk about it it's given it all back over weeks or in the matter of days today, though, call volume is three times average daily volume in ibm the implied move is only 4% for wednesday after the report, which is actually below the four-quarter average about 5%. actually pretty unique in this sort of volatility environment but today the most active call strike was the april this week expiration 157 calls -- excuse me, about 7,000 trade in average and about 388. when you see that short dated call buying, that's usually traders positioning just for the print here stocks rallied about 7% into it. >> all right for more "options action" frayid 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up next, final trades well, it's earnings season

once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade. anna and a little nervous. into retirement... but not so much about what market volatility may do to their retirement savings. that's because they have a shield annuity from brighthouse financial, which allows them to take advantage of growth opportunities in up markets, while maintaining a level of protection in down markets. so they can focus on new things like exotic snacks. talk with your advisor about shield annuities from brighthouse financial- established by metlife.

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>> because maybe we've made to it the spring, mel and you know what springs eternal? hope you know where there is hope right now? shares of wynn resorts. >> wondering when would get to it i'm melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you ckba here tomorrow at make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. even when the averages are roaring with the dow gaining 213 points s&p