tv Fast Money CNBC April 19, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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mattel announced a ceo change. skechers is plunging after issuing weak. three companies -- >> i don't this this have as much as of an impact on the market tomorrow. "fast money" start now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq overlooking new york city times square i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast as bitcoin plunged back it's reaching a key level that got our crypto ball pounding the table he'll join us to break it down from crypto to cannabis. it weed week on "fast money. pot could be a major buzz kill for one group of stocks. vivian assert cowan will be here to explain the tech giant seeking 3% at
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chip maker, warned about the high end smartphone maker and the warning heard around the world quickly gained steam into a full blown chip wreck. get it names like nvidia, micron advanced all in correction or bear market territory down 10% or more from their highs so just how bad could this get for chips and are the chips a canary in the coal mine for sorts? >> i supposed they could we just got this report and taiwan semi when you look at their q2 that was up 10% year over year. yes, it's underneath what the estimates were there's an overreach there. they talked obviously about apple or everybody's brought up apple and how dependent they are. that is something that it does make you scratch your head maybe there's more of a concern than i normally would have in terms of the phone itself and what they're doing in the asian market specifically, because china is such a growth area for
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them is that something that's slowed down more than maybe i'm perceiving it? that all being said, with micron being down 5% and they have less than 10% exposure to apple, they made me look at micron today and said, that's an opportunity. i already own micron i bought more. i added today with calls i already add intel. the exposure level that intel has presently is so minimal, it's well under 10%. >> i would disagree with you on micron if you look at the chart on deram. it's deram dependent that's where you saw the stock rollover nand has been rolling over since november. i agree with intel. i think that's a better play but if i'm playing the chips, it's nvidia. gaming the car, the connected home, those are things you want to buy and those are things that are insulated somewhat. >> let me pushback
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if the space is rolling over somewhat, that's such a momentum high flier, nvidia it feels like there would be more downside. >> i think that you've seen some technology rollover already and if you look at the chart, the chart is still intact. i totally agree that if this is going to be -- if you look at the semi-conductor index, these are levels back from the tech bubble pop so we've rallied all the way up if you're going to be doom and gloom and everything's dragged down, i would say the last thing they take out is nvidia. >> except for the fact that -- i agree with karen on this. i do think the high multiple stocks are the ones in the last pullback under the most pressure if i look at the stocks -- i mean that's as vulnerable as any stock i can look at on a sector basis. it's underperforming industrials. that is getting close to a test to the 200 day which it did back in the second week of february it proved to be a great place to
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trade these stocks and buy them. like you guys, though, i do think intel is the best combination of diversity their data center business we know all about that is growing the valuation makes sense. i don't think you have to jump into chips tomorrow. >> we all agree on the intel. which april 26th that's going to be a disaster. we all agree on that this morning i sold out. i didn't love that taiwan semi-news. i bought it for a trade and it worked out generally. i'm not so optimistic on the ten. intel, i was not at all considering intel. >> right. i'm curious, pete, how much of a take out agreement still exists in these semi-conductor news. >> there's going to be more of that ama going on. some of the lower end names that maybe we don't talk about nearly as much and some of these various names that i think there is possibilities that we could see some of that. if they get punished too much,
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that is the opportunity for those that have the cash maybe in intel who have been aggressive some huge acquisition. >> i asked you that question because of qualcomm. for china to say that the application is not enough and to potentially throw up the roadblocks for two nonchinese companies to merge, that's a game changing -- thing for the sector. >> it is >> there is some take over bid in a lot of these stocks this almost tells you what we need to do to get this done. in qualcomm's case, the take private is the other part of this that's not putting a bid on the stock. you're back to a question where people are wondering about their margins because of their royalty snafus. i have to tell you, i've liked qualcomm a15% or 20% higher. it's still very interesting here i think they'll get through this. >> all these are getting interesting in price qualcomm specifically is going back to the 2017 fall price where you'll get a little bit of support in the name.
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the nxpi who i was -- the street was universally bullish. so was i >> it used to be nxp irk, there was no downside, you either got the 110 or 127.50 now. it's 20 bucks higher than here. but it's so full of risk. this delay till july, they extended until july. that's a lot of risk between now and july. >> in terms of semi-conductors and what it may mean for technology if you think semi-conductor stocks in particular are seen as cyclical. does this not signal something bigger that you should be worried about potentially? >> i don't know. we've talked about how this whole group priced in so much endorsement of what's going on globally the investment in enterprise and a lot of the dynamics that were driving the underlying chip purchases are still very much in
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place. again, i look at some of these stocks, 52 bucks on qualcomm this gets you back to a level that we didn't think we'd see. in some cases you look at relative -- >> is the management good enough at qualcomm? how many companies as we looked at this and said, the stock is too cheap. i remember when it was too cheap when it was 75 bucks. i think that's part of the problem there. that's why we've seen so many activists step in and try to make some moves. >> so -- maybe to answer your question, pete is helping me answer that question you have stock specific stories that are weighing down the sector specifically. you got a name like intel which has great management and very well diversified and it's holding up. you remove some of the takeover fallout and i would say the chips -- i don't think they're an indictment of the global economy. >> okay. our next guest says despite the chip wreck today there's one hot chip wreck to buy right now.
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hi, jeff. what are you looking at? >> let talk a little bit about apple. you've got a stock who's been unable to get through its old highs. clearly that's something we'd want to see to confirm the uptrend. the good news here is you haven't seen a deterioration in relative performance. historically you'll start to see the deterioration in relative performance before these things start to rollover. not always, but it's a pretty good litmus test for how strong the name is. i think apple holds in i still think it's in relatively good shape. the smh the overall semi-conductor index is at an interesting place. you got more winners and losers. you made a new high here that was not confirmed by the relative strength. it was in line but not confirmed. we haven't broken down yet really what we're seeing it's all about the individual charge and that's what we really want to highlight or theindividual
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charts. a name like amd clearly in a down trend. the relative performance like looks like this. this is one we'd stay away from. it looks bad i continue believe it will suffer however, if you look at a name like intel, that's a great name. this is a three year chart if you have the ability to look at a 20 year chart it's even better this is a very strong name the road of improvement is i am proving. thank you for your time. >> everybody here has already saying they like intel, so jeff is confirming what we've already said here but in terms of apple care and you sold today and even if the chip wreck is not necessarily an indictment of the global economy, even if we lost apple, that means a lot to this rally or to the -- >> if we lost intel that would be much bigger to the chips. that first quarter was so
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phenomenal -- >> but to tech and its leadership role in the market? >> i don't think to google i don't think it would be to alphabet or amazon. that would be more telling to me >> i think apple has been a defensive story in the last two and a half months of market. call it volatility. i think it will continue to be because the valuation is still very defensive here. what they can do with a tax deal, with their capital markets flexibility is prevent -- provide a lot of downside pro-tech to the stock frankly and i think it'll continue to be supportive. >> to that point, it had a lot of cover with the facebook, with the social media angle, with the negativivity in the overall market. when you look at apple all that news is already out there about lower sales than you had expected, that ramp up i have friends that are still in the iphone six maybe there wasn't a big urge or big reason to upgrade. >> i know guys on the iphone one. >> i didn't know they made a
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flip iphone. i do think the worse days for apple are behind it. i do like the way it's been reacting on a technical basis. i think that you guys still own it. >> you probably still buy it around these levels. >> generally, i like apple here. i always look for any opportunities. i don't think it's enough of a pullback quite frankly what i really find intriguing about apple, though, is everybody's still talks about the phone and yes i understand what the percentage is it's not just services any more. add in wearables when you add those two together, those are companies that would be in the fortune 100s together. that's the reason why i look at apple, i -- i don't think its defensive. apple you can be very aggressive there are so many different levers they can pull to go a lot higher than we are. >> coming up we're going yield hunting. it's like duck hunting. which dividends are starting to look attractive? plus crypto investors are in a frenzy as bitcoin hits a key
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level. brian kelly is making a special appearance to break it all down. later karen finerman's last pitch hit it out of the park and now she's got another big name that's about to break out. she'll give us her fast pitch. we'rlie ve in time square new york city. we got much more coming up after this. what we've been planning for. knowing what's important to you is why 7 million investors work with edward jones.
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welcome back to "fast money. bond yields surging today. the ten year above 2.9%. that is reeking havoc among a number of rate sensitive strikes. breaking it down is a man who's never too sensitive, dom chu. >> it takes a lot more than rising rate fears to crush me, but today's price action it leave some of the defensive sectors with wounds to lick and rates had a big part in that whole part of the market story two interest rates sensitive sectors took the bulk of the beating today. consumer stapes and real estate. there are some companies that consumer staples did underperform broad weakness in the tobacco stocks on the heels of morris's earning reports. same kinds of growth concerns there with p&g results. you got a pause in the
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flattening of the yield curve at least for now. it was great for many of those banks especially the regional ones the financial sector in the s&p was an upside stand out in an otherwise down market. our rates headed higher. that's a key medium to longer term question as we get back to those recent highs in the ten year yield that we saw in the second half of february, melissa. and what does that mean for all of those interest rate proxies will be a big one. >> thank you. with the rallying rates, could this be the perfect time to go yield hunting where the traders tell you which dividends are looking attractive and which are not. pete will start off with you would you buy right now phillip morris, which yields 5%? >> no. >> it had its worst day in 2008 and it had a flush. >> i try to play by the rules. i'll tell you why i don't like it whenever i go and have a pitch stock out there, i start
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with management and talk about growth management's done a poor job the growth was addressed already by dom which is almost nonexistent. only one part of asia they're seeing any kind of real growth these are all problems that yield go higher. >> i disagree. i've been investing in tobacco and it was a very good friend through july of last year. let face it, phillip morris is the larger bearer in the woods when it comes to tobacco stock i think europe and asia continue to grow. >> i think they're slowing we are on the opposite side of that i look at this and think with all the regulation, and with all the tax and everything going on here -- >> where are the volume declines happening then >> japan was plateauing. >> that's been slowly happening. that will continue to happen. their epfs was higher and their margin compression fears -- >> can i embed a game within a
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game >> you are the boss, mel, you're in charge. >> did the smoking or international smoking? >> that is a diversified business you have exposure to miller. again, i would really pushback on pete. >> one's down 18%, one's down 19%. this is pick your poison they have to transition into smokeless tobacco. >> come on, guys we talking about tobacco companies now. >> i'm talking about the chart the chart looks like no one's smoking any more. >> that's not why the stock sold off today. >> it's not about rates. you can't say this is about rates. you can chart it the only one that makes sense is p&g. that's a rate issue. >> any way, we'll move on. >> there's a lot of people that can play the game. >> there's a lot of names we want to go to, verizon, grasso, i pose this one to you. >> i don't think you should ever
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buy something based on yield because if you look at what it's done year-to-date, it's down 8.5%. >> but would you buy this stock? >> no. it's underperformed the s&p 500 by basically 30%. >> what is this duck here? does that mean you're not going to buy the stock or not buy the stock? >> are we shooting ducks >> if he's not going to buy it, that duck should go down shouldn't be flying. >> maybe it's shot. >> hold on a second. can i try to explain what's going on here? the duck is flying if it's not shot down -- steve shot it down. >> there's a bull's eye. >> that's it. but he not buying it i don't care what the graphics say or may convey but he is not buying it. is anybody else buying verizon >> absolutely not. >> no. no >> you'll shoot that down too. >> i'm with you and i've never ever picked a stock based upon the dividend yield. >> let's move on karen, would you buy bp which
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yields 5.5%? >> very reluctantly i guess i would. you really have to have a feeling on oil being flat -- that was a would maybe the graphic -- >> i guess that means you would buy. >> where's the duck? >> i don't know. >> i thought that would be the duck because the duck is flying. >> i'll tell you one game we're not playing again. >> but, karen, is buying bp. >> there it is. >> 100% with her. i prefer exxon and conco and other names but bp is close. >> p&g, dividend yield just under 4% tim you buy or not >> absolutely not. wherever that duck is i want to shoot it down -- >> that means that he's buying it. >> boom, boom. bye-bye. no duck. bottom line, the stock is still not expensive. there's been an activist bid to
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the stock for a couple years now. nelson pells andco there's deflationary forces. so, no, i don't buy it for the yield. i don't necessarily buy stocks for yield but -- >> they had to cut their whole gillette razor business across the board. does -- do you go to the walgreen's across the street and asked them to unlock a display so you can buy your razors >> no. >> what a pain in the neck >> they're so expensive they get stolen. >> let me make an interesting point on the philosophy for buying for dividend which we're all against because it doesn't make any sense a couple of years ago you could've bought the ge for about a 3.5% dividend. would've looked nice. stock was 26. interestingly you can buy g eric for about a 3.4% dividend right
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now. however, the stocks 13 and the dividend is half as much. i mean, in one day you could so easily lose that whole dividend play you're taking on all those other risk in a stock just for that dividend doesn't make sense. >> an example that had an ge field to it was massy. they didn't think they would hold that dividend down. macy's is a name with a 5% plus dividend that i can buy. i know that sector pretty well. i sit on the board of one of them a lot of these guys are running cash flow somewhat neutral oil is going higher. take a look at those big yields. coming up, karen finerman says the stock is about to breakout she will step up to the plate to make her case. you're watching "fast money" first in business worldwide. here's what he is is coming occupy on "fast." >> maybe say the moon. >> yeah, you can say the moon
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because that's what crypto baller about, k says bitcoin do if it can pass one key level. he'll tell us what that is, plus weed week is heating up and we've got a top analyst who says cannabis could be bigger than beer and she'll tell you h towo cash in when "fast money" returns. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today.
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and more important it doesn't leave me smelling bad. well at least no funnier than you already smell, right coach? c'mon man, give me ten! blue-emu it works fast and you won't stink! [ counting pushups ] 1, 2, 3 ... the crypto universe coming back with a vengeance this month. check out some of the biggest coins in this space surging. ripple and light coin and bitcoin are up around 20% this as it hit a four week high. our own crypto baller bk says bitcoin is testing a key
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technical level. he's over at the plasma with a special crypto class. >> so we're having a big week here a lot of nice bounce off the bottom let's see what's driving it here number one, tax selling. that's over. if you haven't paid your tachz by now, you're in trouble. number two, number of transactions increasing. i was here last week, you asked me what is the single thing we need to see to have this rally continue, we need to see transactions on the bitcoin network increasing. that's beginning to happen that's the fundamental support we need and number two, there's a fair of amount of cash on the side line. they don't have as much bitcoin. we need some sort of catalyst to break us out of this let's take a look at the chart and see what we've got here. this is a log chart. people use a log chart log on the scale because the big moves normalizes the big moves log chart since june, you see we have this big run-up here, okay,
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right to the top that peek was 19,000 now we have a down trend you can see the down trend there. very well defined as carter worth would say. there's a nice arrow right there. maybe it's not that's about 8,500 so if we can break this trend line this week with all this fundamental support, crash on the side, number of transactions increasing, we'll turn that arrow upside down and we go higher if we can breakout. >> should we invite b. kcht over come on over. ryan bring the chair in. >> thank you, ryan. >> you were nervous we weren't going to ask you back over. >> it's a scary place to be. >> it is. >> not too long ago you were pitching bitcoin cash as an opportunity. it's gone up what do we do?
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>> you hod on to it. the entire space has gone up here bitcoin cash, think about it this way, one of my friends was saying if you got bitcoin cash for free and you had to raise money for taxes, you would sell bitcoin cash and keep the bitcoin. it's the most susceptible to tax selling. >> b.k., when you look at bitcoin or you look at the currencies, when you play block chain, what's the best way to play block chain off this because that's what's going to stick around whether or not you pick the right currency, block chain always be there, everyone agrees on that. >> there are a couple of equity plays that you can do and enterprise block chain ibm isn't a pure play but that's one way to play it i certainly think if you want to play the adoption of bitcoin squares another way to do it they mentioned in their -- >> say that one again. >> square. you've heard of it
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you bought it at one. so i think there are different ways to play it. the other ways to play are through the chip companies. >> when you're talking institutions, it seems like the old coins have outperformed the mega caps in bitcoin. what institutions want to do here the wave we saw in november and december was awe coins were massively outperforming because everybody wanted to roll down the curve. what's going on now? >> that's a good point. what you're seeing is this rotation. bitcoin is somewhat stuck here you're seeing some other high quality coins. atheer yum, i think we'll see this year a real divergence in quality. you'll see maybe ten different coins that get all the money and the other thousand or so go to zero. >> of the chip name since we started off the night with chip wrecked, tell me the chips that have the biggest, best exposure.
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>> taiwan semi even though they got killed on smartphones today. nvidia, amd are two ways to play taiwan semi makes the circuits. they make the asix that all the big minors use and that's the best way to play. >> thanks for coming in. from crypto to cannabis, pot stocks have been smoking hot over the last year. >> nice. >> one wall street analyst says it's about to be a major buzz kill for a different industry. karen is stepping up to the plate getting ready to pitch the one stock she thinks will make a major turn around.
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we have got a problem. a few problems actually. we're overproducing, overcrowding, and overheating. we've got aging roadways, aging power grids, ...aging everything. you're kinda bumming me out clive owen. no, wait... it gets worse. we also have the age-old problem of bias in the workplace. really... never heard of it. seriously? it's all over the news. i've heard of it. ahh. the question is... who's going to fix all of this? an actor? probably not. but you know who can solve it? business. that's right. the best-run businesses can make the world run better. because solving big problems is what business does best. and doing good is just good business. shhh! sorry. so let's grow more food, with less water. and make healthcare, more healthy. it's okay, i've played a doctor. what have we got here? let's take on the wage gap, the opportunity gap, the achievement gap. together, we can tackle every elephant in the room. and save the rhino while we're at it.
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because, whatever the problem, business can help. and i know who can help them do it... we have one to two fires a day and when you respond together and you put your lives on the line, you do have to surround yourself with experts. and for us the expert in gas and electric is pg&e. we run about 2,500/2,800 fire calls a year and on almost every one of those calls pg&e is responding to that call as well. and so when we show up to a fire and pg&e shows up with us it makes a tremendous team during a moment of crisis. i rely on them, the firefighters in this department rely on them, and so we have to practice safety everyday. utilizing pg&e's talent and expertise in that area
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trains our firefighters on the gas or electric aspect of a fire and when we have an emergency situation we are going to be much more skilled and prepared to mitigate that emergency for all concerned. the things we do every single day that puts ourselves in harm's way, and to have a partner that is so skilled at what they do is indispensable, and i couldn't ask for a better partner. welcome back time for an instant replay back in december karen said go lar was going to break out. >> this is the top for oil it traded down with oil. here we are right here but so much progress has been made and we are at an inflection point with catalyst, great management team it's a big position for me, golar. >> it was a great call golar shares are up 17% since then so what now karen? >> i'm hanging on to golar
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i made a lot of catalyst today a couple of pieces for good news i think there's more to come. i think it's worth hanging on to right here. >> karen's got the hot hands. head over and give us your next pitch, karen. >> heading over. we saw an absolute blood bath today in the home builder space but i think that creates a pretty good opportunity, so for me, today's fast pitch is, there we go. l lowe's. i always look at valuation that's one of the most important things to me let look at the valuation here if we look over the last year if there were a chart here, here we go, pe, something i care about and stock price. we've had a couple of stock prices the pe has come down a lot it's below the market here and i think there's a cup of things that could go right here and today's sell off creates an extra opportunity. what else i like about it is, we
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have a couple of things that the company can fix themselves. they're going to be able to increase their margins, i think. one of the things they have to do a little bit better is logistic fulfillment and a knew distribution center that will help them do that. they need to have more associates on the floor helping people that's been an obvious complaint and that's an easy problem that they can address this is a company with tremendous resources these are problems they can fix. the last thing i like about it, a new management and new board we know the ceo has said he's going to step down they are searching for a new ceo. a company this size could be a tremendous opportunity, they'll get somebody great i really believe that. then we have one of my favorite board members, corporate board members ever, david batch helder who was from de shaw's activist push here, david is one of the clearest thinking long-term thinkers, also he has tremendous experience in the space having been at home depot. so i like that there's a
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shake-up here. i think there's a number of catalysts. put them all together and at this price i like lowe's >> i got a quick question for you. i own both lowe's and home depot. you and i were talking about these particular stocks. e-commerce, is lowe's doing enough or do they need to press forward when they do find the next ceo >> they need to press forward. they know they're a little bit behind they are working on it it's not in any way that i think being short home depot home depot has done an outstanding job. i just think lowe's it's a lot cheaper and it has a few catalyst that could give an extra boost. >> riddle me this, why does it trade down >> they all do look at everything the whole spras traded down and i think it was presents a good opportunity right here all right. >> time now to vote, are you buying karen's pitch on lowe's pete >> i own it. i like it. i'm buying it.
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>> grasso. >> i would say buy it. this shouldn't be a rates issue but it is inversely correlated watch the 50 day -- 200 day, 8469. >> tim >> i'm buying it. >> and i'm going there after work. >> the question is, are you at home buying karen's pitch for lowe's are you buying cull? plus, it is weed week on "fast money. vivi vivien azer is about to deliver a blow to the beer industry. she'll be here to explain.
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welcome back to "fast money" and welcome back to weed week. the first cannabis space drug pacing its first hurdle for the treatment of epilepsy. meg tirrell joins us live. >> it's a medicine derived from the plant but it doesn't produce the effects we associate with marijuana. the compound is called cbd and its developer has been testing it for the treatment of seizures caused by rare childhood
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epilepsies it was a reviewed by a panel to the fda who voted 13-0 the fda doesn't have to follow the panel's advice but it often does the regulator is schedule today make a decision on whether to approve the medicine by the end of june. the agency is working as fast as it can to complete the review. we spoke with the ceo of gw pharma right after the panel vote today. concerns about potential misuse. >> a good body of today's meeting was, in fact, focused on what is term abuse potential of cbd and it was clear, both from our studies and from the fda's review that the abuse potential was deemed to be low. >> still, because of dea skenging, there would be about a three month delay after approval if it get approved for when the drug becomes available the side effect, the panel focused on liver safety something that may require monitoring as for the medicine's financial
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prospect u.s. revenue at more than billion dollars. gw stock closed flat it does follow a jump earlier in the week. mel, there's a lot of excitement among the patient who are waiting for this drug, severe epilepsy is a terrible condition. >> meg, thank you. tim, you actually own gw pharma. >> this is such a big day. what the ceo is also talking about the process for approval and the process for all the clinical trials is a very riggerus scientific process and this is part of the victory here this is why this is so exciting. if the fda is on board this is going to put different pressure on it. she started to talk about cbd versus t hrk c we'll do this on the show i hope nonpsychotropic parts of the cana-boyd chain are very powerful and working today and that's why this is an important topic for social causes.
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>> a lot of different pharma companies are looking into cbd. there are cbd receptors. this is for seizures but there are other companies that are working for instance, on pains associated with crohn's disease. >> it's not just epilepsy. alzheimer's. the pain relief and pushback on opioids this is great. our next great says cannabis is a buzz kill for beer sales. she brought the charts to prove it let welcome vivien azer. what exactly is going on i feel like maybe people suspected this could happen but you have proof. >> yeah. we've been covering the cannabis industry for 18 months and we currently think that the total industry in the u.s. is about $50 billion. it's just that a lot of it is going through the black market right now. the industry is getting a had the of traction in terms of getting consumer support here. gallop would report that 54% are
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in favor of use making it legal. >> in terms of the impact on other products that you cover. beer is one. it's interesting because you cover all these sectors that may actually have an impact if people pick up the use of cannabis increasingly. >> we viewed the interak with alcohol has being the most obto us as we think of these products and so what we've done in our analysis is really look at the interaction between the two categories we've been able to prove out that binge drinking rates or significantly lower where they have access to do you think use cannabis. >> lower by. >> 18 percentage points. >> unbelievable. >> is this something you see in the beginning stages and then people switch and you see a rebound effect correlation is not causation, but this you can't argue with the chart that you just showed
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that is an inverse correlation. is this something we should look for to putter out in a matter of months or years? >> no. i expect this to be a longer term sustainable trend the inverse correlation is the most obvious. so you would expect that consumer water fall to hold true >> so if you have continued legalization, how much will that grow the cannabis market and therefore potentially decrease the beer, what other social lubricant you choose. >> sure. we've got a target for the u.s. market assuming federal legalization of the product of $75 billion by 2030. we haven't sized the risk to alcohol but we have been able to show in our survey work that about 80% of consumers to report some kind of reduction in alcohol consumption when they're also engaging in cannabis consumption. >> how do you view the valuations how do you value these companies at this point and is there sort of a tipping point at which the
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use of cannabis becomes so widespread that there is price pressure or that production costs, you know, must come down in order to make it viable >> our coverage is focused on the canadian market where the government is expected to expand to adult use. probably september/october of 2018. so we cover the two biggest companies in the sector. the first is canopy growth and the second is med relief to give the companies full credit for the market transition which is going to happen in a step function way, we're looking at fiscal three revenues. in terms of price deflation we're absolutely looking for that a lot of canadian producers are bringing on a lot of capacities so we're looking for 8% price reduction at scale. >> top picks. >> canopy growth is we'd and number two is leaf. >> thanks for coming by. >> vivien azer from cowan.
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>> they are the institutional acts. >> if you listen to these companies, brands matter and they believe that there's going to be a place where there is a very sophisticated consumer product where they'll hold their margins and first mover advantage is very important. constellation brands has made a massive investment in canopy so are they playing defense or offense? they know what's going on. >> i think they're playing offense and that was when i did the pitch on constellation. that was part of it because they had made that move i think it's a huge move obviously the numbers bear out that she's -- that vivian put up there that this is replacement -- i think the speed of this is going to surprise people. >> so does that mean that beer's are short? >> no. >> when you take a look at bud, does that make you worry >> you have a lot of other issues with beer too you're talking about microbreweries. >> they got a world of problems. >> this just seems to be the latest one i do think that there in for a
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little more selling. >> i think the substitution effect of the social lubricants is very, very real and think about thedemographics involved gen x, gen z -- it's definitely not my gen. i think there's a lot of folks out there, that's the social lubricant they know and that's what's going on. >> our special coverage of weed week comes to a close tomorrow appropriately on april 20th. governor weld join us tomorrow. still ahead the at&t/time warner trial under way this week with randall stephenson taking the stand today. we'll bring you all the latest details. much more "fast" right after this. get it for jean who's always cold. for the sales team, it and the warehouse crew.
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talk and text included at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how you could save $400 or more a year. and get $200 back when you sign up for xfinity mobile and add a new line of unlimited. xfinity mobile. it's a new kind of network designed to save you money. click, call or visit an xfinity store today. welcome back to "fast money. at&t ceo randall stephenson taking the stand earlier today defending the $85 billion merger with time warner in federal court. hampton pierce is at the courthouse where it all went down he's got more on this developing story. hampton? >> reporter: randall stephenson was trying to beat the defense and really their closer in trying to win government approval from a judge overhearing this case. after all day on the witness stand, very heaviestly departed the courthouse, glad to be off the witness stand. again, very energetic in
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defending the merger both on direct and cross-examination some of the highlights, he was asked repeatedly about government claims that post merger -- this is a merger that harm consumers he said several times several ways he's absolutely convinced this is going to drive greater consumer benefits and at one point saying, quote, the only lack of competition has been the delay in getting this merger to the marketplace. in answer to the doj claim that post-merger the merge company would have incentives to raise prices for turner content to other distributors, he said its absurd i don't follow the logic under cross-examination the government did point out that at&t has raised prices 5% per year over the last three years for consumers. stephenson's answer was content costs have gone up also the government pointing out that in 2017, at&t had a 7% increase in ad revenue and also
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still raised prices. the bottom line for the government, the government saying despite all the increased competition for video distribution from the so-called faangs being in the paid tv subscriber business with some 90 million subscribers nationwide is still a pretty good business to be in and still very profitable we're winding down with the trial going forward now. the government putting on rebuttal witnesses. we don't know yet when we'll actually get closing arguments. back to you. >> all right. thank you. so let's trade this because this obviously has a lot of implications if this deal goes through on what other media deal on conversely if it doesn't go through, what other media deals won't even be on the table. >> it's tough to handicap this you can make a pretty strong argument why this deal should go through, but i don't sit on the doj side if you think about at&t, they've made investment in their
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customers. their margins have gotten better bottom line on the stock, though, is it got very expensive on the fact that it was a content play and if it's not its trading back to a norm obviously for an environment where interest rates are pushing down on those stocks that are heavy yield stocks, this is another one. it's very range bound. >> we have learned who has come forth in terms of bidding for some of fox's assets and that will hinge on whether or not this deal goes through they rejected comcast premium offer because of regulatory concerns, antitrust concerns specifically. if this deal goes through, could we see all of a sudden a renewed interest in these assets >> possibly. i don't know why not. i would think that that would come up. m & a has sort of slowed down for now and i would see an acceleration across multiple different categories and this one being maybe one of the biggest. >> at&t's facing another big test next week when reports earnings.
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hi, mike. >> so the options market implying a move. that may not sound like much but actually telecom stocks like at&t don't move that much. this one moves about 2%. we did see aninteresting trade today as people were pressing and rolling some bearish bets. so those would be bearish bets that at&t could fall below 35 or down about 5% in just about two months one other thing i would add is that the implied volatility and the realized volatility in this space is basically trading at a five year high right now. >> wow pete, i'm sure you noticed that. >> there's so much going on. there's a lot of different reasons as mike points out expecting a 2% but now a 3%. it does show you there's a lot of different things going on there's so many different layers going on that that's why we're seeing that elevated volatility. >> thank you for that.
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for more options action check out the full show at 5:30 eastern time. up next, lowe's is up nearly a%. but are you at home buyinghe t stock? find out when we come back. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade [fbi agent] you're a brave man, your testimony will save lives. mr. stevens? this is your new name. this is your new house. and a perfectly inconspicuous suv. you must become invisible.
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[hero] i'll take my chances. at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your manufacturing business. & so this won't happen. because you've made sure this sensor and this machine are integrated. & she can talk to him, & yes... atta, boy. some people assign genders to machines. and you can be sure you won't have any problems. except for the daily theft of your danish. not cool! at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & this shipment will be delivered... hello. give me an hour in tanning room 3. cheers! that's confident. but it's not kayak confident. kayak searches hundreds of travel sites to help me plan the best trip. so i'm more than confident. forgot me goggles. kayak. search one and done.
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welcome back you know what songs always playing whenever i walk into lowe's, ""unbreak my heart"" because twitter fans are not buying your pitch for the stock. >> i've had my heartbroken a lot of times it always heals. the market is a the final arbiter. all right. final trade time pete najarian. >> started off with chip wreck micron technology. >> steve grasso. >> big day for general electric tomorrow i am long. i got long today i think you'll have more to the upside. the worst is out of the way. >> karen >> if it's good enough for tony braxton, it's good enough for me, all right. buying lowe's right here. >> is that get a duck or a target >> tim
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>> speaking of, altria. margins are better. they're involved it's a nice dip. >> thanks for watching meantime money. meanwhile, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer has the bull finally met its match? will this market be laid low by a toxic mix of inflation and higher interest rates?
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