tv Fast Money CNBC April 20, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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stuff. >> because it's a heavy, heavy calendar next week, evan some of the biggest names out there. >> i don't think -- i said a few weeks ago when he was on, financials, earnings weren't going to make a difference and they didn't make a difference. >> thank you both very much. michelle, thank you for joining us "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now live overlooking new york city times square. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," bitcoin is booming. brian kelly says you have to see what could have major implications for the market. plus happy 4/20 and on this high holiday, we've got the former governor of massachusetts and board member of cannabis company acreage holdings william weld he'll tell us why he's giving the cannabis craze a green light. first we start with the market sell-off the dow dropping nearly 300 points at the lows apple dragging down tech the nasdaq 100 falling nearly
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2% this as the countdown begins to what could be the most important week for tech stocks alphabet, facebook, amazon, twitter, intel all on deck to report next week is today's action a warning sign of what is to come >> well, it doesn't matter. >> or does it matter >> nice, nice. >> not that you didn't ask the right -- you asked the correct question but tim dovetailed it correctly and says does it matter i would submit i don't think it does matter. there's a lot of other things going on that supersede what we're seeing in technology but to play the game, if you ask me the names that really make a difference next week, facebook to me is fascinating on wednesday, but the name that i think out of all those that i think will crush because they can and because it will be a giant sort of silencer to the administration comes in the form of amazon on thursday. >> why wouldn't it matter, though >> because of yields
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>> let me ask you a different question if the ten-year note was at 2.46 today closing rather than 2.96, wouldn't equities have rallied >> i don't know. you have to answer the chip question is the real reason why i think a lot of the tech space was under pressure so next week why i think it does matter is that if you could alleviate a lot of these worries, then it's going to get a little off the back of apple if you can get a little bit off the back of apple, tech probably has a little bit of a runway to run. >> that's fair we've had this conversation all week i think when you get to big cap tech, obviously what are we going to be listening to or listening for? we're going to be listening for some sense of the regulatory pressure, some sense of the additional costs these guys will endure because of that, and margins. and again, i think it gets back to valuations matter now i think it matters even in the tech sector where a lot of times people are willing to look past that. >> if this was just about tech,
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i wouldn't be that worried about the market you could say maybe taiwan set this off but this is spreading there's a bit of a contagion going on today that has real meaning to home depot, to lowe's, to all the other stocks we've talked about that have been wonders you might even want to talk to mike jackson maybe he's got something to say. >> but the biggest sector in the s s&p 500 is under pressure. whether it's concern about demand, cap ex spending, regulatory pressure, consumer staples down leading again that was really troubling price action off the back of yesterday's slate of earnings where they didn't have any pricing pressure. >> i know apple is its own animal but pete says this all the time, kate is the absolute ax. >> because she has been the most bullish analyst on the street.
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>> if you believe her on the way up, it stands to listen you're going to listen to what she says when she makes negative comments to me out of all the things macro aside, that was the most interesting story of the day. >> facebook, i think we got a lot of that out of the way if facebook can prove that advertisers aren't leaving in droves and that subscribers aren't leaving in droves, i think that they basically -- i don't want to say they're out of the woods because the macro market will dictate a lot of it, but i think they're nearer to the end than the beginning. >> but what if they came out and said we have not seen an impact yet. would you be surprised how long has the impact been >> they have to say we haven't seen an impact and don't expect one. if we haven't seen an kbanimpac the market will price in more uncertainty. >> do you think they can say we don't expect one >> if they do, i think the market would probably laugh. >> exactly >> all the channel checks we've heard about facebook is advertisers stay very engaged. i'm not sure you're going to see
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a major impact the question really for them is going forward. i go back to the whole existentialist reality of the centralized platform i think there's a lot of people that aren't deleting facebook because it's facebook, they're starting to say this is the world of what's going on in crypto and block chain and i no longer want to be fed to the parasite, which i know it's an awful word i just want to also stress that the xlp, so back to staples, the fact we're at two-year lows is significant for reasons. one, it tells you yields are going higher and people are less willing to go for high-yield products but we're in a place people believe the equity valuations were high. you were willing to spend a lot for any one of these staples companies in a stock market where the ten-year was lower so it's that double dynamic stocks are nowhere near as cheap as they were at a 3% tenure as they were at 2%. >> procter & gamble sort of put a bow on it. made a 52-week low today
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that's not an insignificant company. and what's really interesting is the top of the stock was top ticked the day nelson announced he was taking a major stock if you recall i remember the day and i remember it was trading with a 92 handle. look at it now. >> if yields cross 3% next year, all these companies in line to better than expected earnings, what's the overriding reaction of the market? >> every strategist we've had says 3% is the number. >> for the year. >> but that's -- that's the number that they will start to adjust their estimates, their earnings estimates and adjust their year-end targets at 3% so i think psychologically -- whether we're at 2.95 or 3.01 really doesn't matter to the economy. but 3% for strategists, that's important. >> yes, it's a big event and we've all been waiting for it. we've been in a declining rate environment for what seems like forever. if you look at the trend lines, they're all nothing but lower.
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lower and to the right but i do believe that the market is digesting it. i do believe the bigger aspect -- that's where we started this conversation was with rates months ago. now we've moved on i think if large cap tech can perform next week, i do think it matters and i think it drags the whole market with it back to probably above -- >> so stronger earnings from technology can overside 3 plus percent on the ten-year yield, agree or disagree? >> i know the yield curve doesn't necessarily matter for banks. tim has pointed that out and been correct but it matters for the economy, i think. and today he said with the tens being 40 something basis points, he wasn't signaling necessarily a recession, but it was the genuine yellow light is what he talked about. >> it's also a fed that's gone out of its way to tell you the fed is not going to bail you out, folks we are not here -- we don't care where the markets are going to be disturbed. >> you just said flashes of yellow, they could slow down and we could talk -- >> yeah, but they haven't even talked about slowing down.
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they haven't talked about speeding up. >> i'm just commenting on that one thing. >> yeah, but nobody cares about him right now. >> if so, do you think the fed will stay with their foot on the gas if we're hitting 3%? >> the fed has moved to get into the zone they're in. do you think they're going to turn it on a dime? absolutely not this is the whole problem with the fed. here's the other problem with rates and why they're going to go higher. every macro fund in the world has been betting on this it was very painful when we got back down into 2.71. i think that's a big part of it. finally the rest of the world is listening and realizing we have an enormous amount of debt to refund there is going to be two times as much in 2017 as we had in 2019 versus what we had in 2017. you've got twin deficits, you've got all the trade rancor out there. it certainly doesn't inspire other nations. i'm not going to say they will dump them, they will not but funding the u.s. government in this environment is something that is pushing up on ten-years, no denying it. >> just to button this up then,
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good tech earnings, do they trump 3 plus percent of the tech earnings >> very good, yes. sorta strong, no. >> we don't have a chartist on this block, but there's nothing in the technicals that tell me the stock market is going up next week. >> yes, they trump it. >> you >> slows it down, but i think the macro trumps everything right now. coming up, speaking of tech earnings, there's one name that dan nathan says is a major short. he'll join us to explain plus general electric surging today after its earnings weren't as bad as many feared. but is a turn-around for real? the traders weigh in. later, it's everyone's favorite holiday, apparently i like christmas but today is national pot day. on the last day of our weed week, the former governor of massachusetts and board member at acreage holding, bill weld, will join us to talkbo aut us. we have much more "fast money" coming up right after this
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what do i want to be when i grow up? i want to be someone who ... makes the world beautiful ... and builds up my neighborhood. i want to be someone who helps others ... and teaches them new things. every year, comcast employees and their families come together on comcast cares day to give back. it's a celebration of their year-long commitment to their communities. what do i want to be? i want to be someone who cares. welcome back to "fast money. it's 4/20, a high holiday for marijuana users. let's bring inspect former massachusetts governor bill weld who now sits on the board of acreage holdings with former
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house speaker john boehner governor weld, great to have you with us. >> i hadn't realized it's a high holiday not being a smoker i'll have to start celebrating starting today, i guess. >> i didn't know what 4/20 was until 4/20 myself. but you've been a pro opponent of this for a very long time, which was surprising to me, since 1992 >> yeah, medical marijuana. >> yeah, medical marijuana. >> i didn't come around to the full scale until question 4 in massachusetts 2016 >> so your role in acreage holdings, you joined what -- >> it's now a board of advisers. it may morph into a board, but i'm very active. i've spent a long time with kevin murphy, the founder and the other folks. they're all wall street veterans at the same time, murphy and the others have this huge passion about the afflicted and the suffering and what cbd can do for people with pain and nausea.
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research in israel where this research is legal, a guy at hebrew university has shown that it can alleviate symptoms, not cure the diseases, but alleviate major symptoms cancer, how much money a year do we spend on that hepatitis, diabetes, parkinson's disease. and not to have research legal in the united states on that strikes me as crazy, so that's why boehner and i are saying number one priority, deschedule cannabis as a class one narcotic in washington, d.c. >> why do you think that there has been such a change in tone in the conversation of late? just today senator chuck schumer said that he is formally announcing a plan to decriminalize marijuana at the federal level. we've had a number of drugs reach the level of fda committee and just yesterday gw pau pharmaceuticals which deals with a drug that treats ep lileptic seizures, went to committee.
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>> the trump administration announced they want to hear comments april 23rd at the fda on descheduling cannabis as a class one narcotic president trump talked with cory gardner, republican senator from colorado, a couple of days ago right after boehner and i came on and said, no, no, i'm going to take care of the rub between the feds and the states. if it's legal in colorado, we'll make sure you don't get prosecuted for that. that's the president of the united states talking so that's pretty high cotton as they say in mississippi. >> governor, this is where political footballs are worth throwing and catching. if you think about the desire in that community, especially those veterans using cbd to really say i'm doing this for veterans and i actually care, and i believe he does, isn't this part of the political process that will be -- makes this an issue for midterm elections? >> i would think it's excellent politics for president trump he did say during the campaign in 2016, i think adult rec, adult full legalization is a
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states' rights issue and that goes down very well with republicans, including this former republican. i'm now a libertarian, but john boehner. if you deschedule, it still leaves the question of adult rec to the states. and there's a disparity in view in the country between medical marijuana and full legalization because there are 29 states that have okayed medical and only nine to date that have legalized full rec. >> given that the path right now legally is not fully formed and that there are certain things that are still being debated and decided, you guys are still planning on going public how does that work if some of these issues are not decided at the federal level? >> it may be something like backing into a shell in canada i'm a former head of the criminal division of the united states justice department. >> that's why i'm asking you >> and so that opens up the whole dialogue as it relates to
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the bankeriing sector that's been the biggest issue for a lot of these companies do you envision anything happening either on the state level, certainly federally that will allow these corporations, this commerce to get a better leg into the banking system? >> well, what the president said to cory gardner is a step in that direction i think if you get descheduling which there's almost no logical argument against, the banking will take care of itself and follow along full legalization i think it's still years away for all 50 states unless senator schumer's bill goes through, but it may be three, four, five years. it's not 10, 20 years away. >> sooner than probably most of us think governor weld, we've got to leave it there we hope you'll come back and visit us again what do we think of the sector >> obviously this is where everyone's eye balls are if we can let the states choose,
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you look at that map, that heat map, and it really is the tailwind for pot i wonder how much of this is an international story. can we compete with the canadian companies now? maybe like the governor said, maybe you have to do an end route and go to canada as the shell and figure out how to compete from there. >> the reaction on twitter to our weed week has been very interesting. you get a lot of people who say why are you talking about these speculative investments. this is like amateur hour investments. >> tim has done a lot of work with this but this will be the most disruptive industry we've seen since the internet. i don't say that to be glib or speak in hyperbole this will disrupt the spirits industry, which it has done. you watch the pushback you'll get from big cap farmer. i guarantee they'll push back against this but be unable to.
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>> even the drugs being developed, they don't cross the blood/brain barrier. >> the opioid epidemic is something that's, again, very highly talked about but below the scene if you think about just pain relief and sleep disorders, and this is 80% of the pharma spend in this country, this is why the entire cbd space is so fascinating and why really it's nice to rerun "fast times at ridgemont high" but the bottom line is this is a real story, these are real considerations and there's real brands being built within this space, brands matter, and they'll hold on to their margin even if the product prices go down. >> weed week is over, but coming up brian kelly has a bitcoin chart so crazy you might actually think you are high. it's got major implications for the market and he will explain i'm melissa lee, you're watching
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"fast money" on cnbc in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast. oil is surging and it's taking energy stocks with it but the chart master says he sees something in the charts that could be signaling the party is over. he'll tell us what that is plus, shares of boeing have been looking a lot like its planes, flying high. but one trader thinks the stock is about to get ouedgrnd he'll explain why when "fast money" returns right after this. it's great to finally meet you. your parents have been talking about you for years. they're all about me saving for a house, or starting a college fund for my son. actually, i want to know what you're thinking. knowing that the most important goals are yours, is how edward jones makes sense of investing.
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the stock is no longer the biggest dow lag ard as procter & gamble now takes that spot is this the beginning of a turn-around for general electric you bought ge yesterday. >> i did i bought it yesterday. we started talking about it last week saying it looked interesting. i thought they were making such a big deal that he felt very confident and i wanted to buy it off of that. i think when you do look at the chart, 15, 16, 17 within eye shot today extremely healthy that we didn't break down way below $14. market wanted a sell-off, this one was under pressure three words, better than expected now you're talking about maybe selling off their rail business. he is going to get there i don't know longer term, but i think that this market has everything in this name. >> i would have said not as bad. >> so steve is right that the expectations were so poor. it sounded like you were being
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more tactical than making an investment because actually i think about 15, 16, 17, they're starting to talk about 20%, 30% away so i'm long the stock from 19 and i'm hanging in there because i think the sentiment has been so poor that it's really about transparency for these guys i don't expect that their core earnings will turn around. what they did today was a nice beat but it was a very low bar so i don't think today tells you it's turned around i think there's a lot of short money in it. i need to see them divest $20 billion because i'm worried about the credit agencies too. they need to get them off their back. >> they were supposed to divest that $20 billion by thanksgiving, christmas, and here we are in april and not even close tactically it was a great trade. but i think this was a relief rally, which may last another week or so, but the problems that existed two weeks ago i think still exist today. moving on to another big winner this week, bitcoin, jumping 7% this week and that
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brings us to our chart of the day. check out the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market over the past year. you flagged this. >> yeah, so here's what's interesting. we actually looked at this and the correlation over a longer period of time is not statistically significant. but since december it has gotten a lot closer a lot of people like jeffrey gunlock have been saying bitcoin is the leader of the market. i would also submit it's been down because of tax selling, the stock market may be down because of tax selling john paulson had to pay $1 billion in taxes david einhorn took money out of his fund to pay for taxes. there was a ten-year window hedge fund managers didn't have to pay taxes this is the year they have to pay it i think that's why you have this correlation, there's tax selling in both of these assets. >> do you agree with that, with the whole -- you were very skeptical about the takes day selling aspect of it. >> i've been skeptical just because i sense that the global industry that everybody says is two-thirds in asia is not a bunch of u.s. folks. but if you think about the
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liquidity in the market and what it takes to push it around for selling in a nonliquid environment could hurt. >> it's friday it's already that time >> you know what's next. >> no, not that time it's time for the final trade first. tim. >> they report monday, halliburton and the osx. >> last night i came on as a special guest which was not own thrilling but fun too. i said buy bitcoin above 8500, i put my money where my mouth is, i bought some. >> you're just relieved we invited you over to the desk >> i feel as if apple is my final trade but i feel as if everyone is so worried about iphone sales we get it, it's an iphone company, a hardware company, i understand that everyone is putting all their eggs in that basket i think it's a little too front loaded, i do believe you can buy this one on a dip. >> the reason why you watch options action, nathan on wednesday, his final trade was short smh.
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