number of our brands and gaming initiatives. >> that's coming up tonight at 6:00 p.m. on "mad money. mike, thank you very much. kelly, let's get back out to you. ten seconds left and the good-byes. >> yes, plenty of time guys. gate stuff that does it for "closing bell." thank you for tuning in. it begins right now, "fast money. "fast money" starts right now. i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk are tim sebring and guy adami. larry robbins of glennview capital will be joining us and you want to listen to him. he had one of the best performing picks from last year. john pfeffer on one the hedge fund world will will be bullish. alphabet you know it as google's parent company. the stock has been volatile

after earnings after that big beat the conference call is going on as we speak. we'll have full coverage of the latest headlines coming from the sweep and it wouldn't be earnings system without "fast money" friend jim muenster. we will check with him in just a few moments. we begin with the action announcement. failing to hold the rally. is the bar simply too high for some of these big tech earnings this season? guy? >> it's definitely too high. i look at this quarter it's fine if you're bullish you take solace in the fact that it wasn't as disaster it doesn't seem to be any headlines coming out that would give you concern b.k. has brought up a point which is probably the only bear case to me in google right now do they go by the way of facebook do the problems of facebook is facing, does google have the same problems? the answer is yes although we haven't heard that i'll say this, the stock -- i'm not one for round numbers. it held $1,000 in february and a few weeks ago. trades at 22 times forward

earnings and you probably have close to 19% earnings growth valuation-wise off this quarter it's a pretty compelling story. >> what did you think? >> i don't know exactly what to make some positives and negatives here you want to hear the commentary. one thing that's disappoint to go me is the lack of viewing something with that cash board that is one of the world's largest ever. it's ridiculous to me. i understand if they don't want to get into a situation of having to pay a quarterly dividend that's fine just pay a one time special dividend microsoft did years ago. you're not locking yourself into anything that's my single biggest complaint here i haven't seen the nuances yet i'd love to get more granularity on some of those other businesses. >> the bar is low. >> for google specifically >> i don't think the bar is high margin pressures in the fourth quarter. we still need a lot more transparency out of youtube and gcp which is growing 34%

grow about that much next year if you think about the story -- guy pointed out where the multiple is relatively to the growth x cash is 18 times i don't think people expect a lot. i think they're getting painted with a facebook brush. they have better data than facebook and i think more people have to use google than use facebook they're in a different place even though we all know that these guys are under some regulatory headwinds and again, if you want to get, you know, big government all over the tech sector, google seems to be the place. obviously, problem europe, by the way, just to be clear. european commission has been a leader in this i'm not saying its leader good it's leader. it's going to happen here. follow what happened in europe. >> yeah. what you're seeing in the after-hours is just fisticuffs over whether or not you believe that capex are spend is going to lead to higher growth in the future or not. everything look good the margins came out and they were the lowest since 2012

the stock soldup. a kerfuffle if you will. that's what's happening in after-hours. i think we'll know tomorrow morning who won. >> you look like you're about -- you have that game playing look on your face. >> do you think that there are concerns about potential regulations that's sort of keeping alphabet -- >> keeping fires at bay. >> exactly a little cautious because of that overhang. you mentioned europe, right? gdp goes into effect next month. we'll get a glimpse into how that's going to be not sure if they'll talk about it on this call. one would hope they would. >> i agree is that regulation concern keeping buyers at bay? the answer's yes the flip side is that. 22 times forward earnings, 18 times x cash. that becomes a compelling story. you're talking about a company that doesn't have that many rivals. does valuation outweigh the dernz of regulation? i would say, yes, by the way.

>> i guess the question is, does that valuation reflect privacy concern discount embedded in the shares already or would that be on top of the valuation discount its getting right now for whatever reason? >> you think that it does already reflect some headwinds there. this has been in the works for several months s just starting soon. i mean, to me, to find a business like this at 18 times the cash generation -- and this is 18 times including all that money they spend, right, so it's an extraordinarily powerful money machine. i'm -- you know, a little disappointed it's not trading better, but absolutely not a seller here at all. >> it always has i'll say this in google's defense, at least relative to the consequences facebook's cheap too boy, what's happening to both of these stocks google's always been cheap and google's been cheap for transparency reasons not because they're doing something bad but we need to better understand

their business they'll going to build five new datacenters this year. maybe you're worried about another bad -- i don't know if it was a bad or good one, people worry about an m & a. >> it's been cheap for a long time of the stocks done will well other than the last two months if you've held this stock for years as it's been cheap, cheap, cheap but earning its way into higher and higher prices, i'd rather it not be cheap, but i'm very happy to own it. >> i think you hold it. >> any -- is facebook such a unique animal in this story? >> my view on peek centralization is a longer term type of observation, that we're having this underlying decentralized internet that is going to come up and start to erode the market gap that's not a trading cue i can't trade off that today except for being in the decentralized stocks. in terms of is this different than google versus facebook? facebook's the tip of the spear here if they have one more issue that's going to be more of a problem for facebook than it

would be for google. if you had to buy the two, then i'd go more with google. >> jeffrey gun lock of double line who said to short facebook at the conference. >> facebook quarter i think will be fine. that's never been in question. it's what is their guidance going to be after the last week and a half, two weeks that they've been through basically the ringer i'd submit that i don't think they can be all that -- they shouldn't be giddy, let's put it this way the optics would be bad. >> this is a gummy snake. i don't know if anyone can see this this is a gummy snake. one side of its sweet, one side is tart or sour. >> where you going with this. >> this is a perfect metaphor for what's going on with facebook and google. these guys are major targets because they're dominating they are certainly a successful monitor. >> which one is sweet and which one is sour? >> you want me to eat this now wouldn't be fair to anybody to do that. >> the metaphor is what?

>> what's sweet is the fact that these guys have these enormous platforms. what's sour is the same? >> so both are the snake >> absolutely. oh, okay. >> i thought one was one side of the snake and one was the other. >> okay. >> i'm glad you brought your snake along for demonstration. >> i don't agree that if one more thing comes out they are setting us up for more bad things coming out. when they tell us they're reviewing every application, every partnership they've had, there's bound to be something else. >> of course. >> they know that. they're telling us that. >> yeah. it wouldn't be tech earnings without jean muenster. let's bring in gene for more on alphabet. why did you think the stock was flat after-hours >> there wasn't a lot of surprises, melissa. i want to put something in the perspective. the world cannot live without google, we can live without facebook the google is the oxygen of the internet and as evidence of

that, look at the top line growth, 83%. typically companies when they continue to grow, the growth rates decline. so they're so-called beating the law of large numbers, but i'm sure as you've been talking about it, been diligently listening to the call here the privacy is a big topic so far we're almost 40 minutes into the call, they haven't addressed that privacy question. if you're at home with a computer, you may want to just try to search for this term is, download my google data. bring that heavy five gig file data. you may think difference about how this plays out don't want to mistake this here as google is part of the oxygen of the internet and is going to be a successful company over the long haul. >> in terms of the tone of the privacy questions or the tone of the privacy conversations, what is it are they talking about they talking about the cost of implementing gdpr or regulations here in the united states? what seems to be the key themes? >> they stay large away from that the prepared remark

the first question was more about way mose. we have to report back later on in the show. they haven't said much about privacy. >> in your view, we're talking about the discount in terms of valuation, how the stock is cheap in terms of how it trades. is there a privacy concern discount embedded in the shares already or would that be another discount to valuation to be made in the future? >> i think there's a small -- if i was going to put a guess on it, less than 5% privacy discount already baked in there. the "the wall street journal" did a story just in terms of the amount of data they have on you. most investors are bracing for what potentially could come down i don't think the bell would be a total surprise i don't anticipate, this but come out and say that it needs to impact their montization in privacy that's not priced in. >> your number one question right now is what? >> number one question, is how do they think about all this facebook what facebook has been through and what are the probabilities

of some sort of oversight from the government that could impact the type of data they capture. remember google is a data company so that's my number one question. >> we'll check back with you later on he's manning the red phone for us and monitoring the conference call that was not surprising but it was very interesting, the privacy is so at the forefront we're about half an hour, 40 minutes into the conference call -- >> it kicked off that makes sense. >> all right. >> i think you have a place here what's really interesting is we're not even talking about their core business which should be really -- if this doesn't grow at 20%, i think we don't get guidance that continues to be solid, the stocks got more problems -- i don't think that's going to happen. let's get back to their core business for a second and really, this is a business that continues to chug along and be the core of why you want to own this thing and why you're getting 16 day, 18% over the next four years. >> regulation is a big issue

here take a look at what jim said earlier about what regulation would mean for facebook and ceo mark zuckerberg. >> i saw the congressional testimony which i thought was terrible i thought it was dismissive. i thought it was insincere. >> by mark zuckerberg? >> yeah. i thought he was very semantic in the way he was answering questions as opposed to fulsome. when the charts i used on stage today, once the regulators show up, they tend to cause problems. there's basically two modes of regulation by congress, none and overreaching. >> again, his recommendation was to short facebook. so what do you make of that? the other thing he said was that regulation could end equity bubbles in reference to facebook. >> right if you look at what have been the leaders, it's been the faang stocks we talk about them all the time of the if regulation does come in and they have to change their business model substantially, then, yes, could that pop the bubble if we're even in a

bubble i don't think we're in a bubble. yes, earnings and pe ratios are somewhat high, they weren't as high as a couple weeks ago and they're not terribly high. watch out for regulation his trade was also to go long on oil as well. >> the other side that have coin, you brought this up, mel, regulation hurts the little guys and gals more than it hurts the big guys and gals. obviously facebook is one of the bigger ones. we'll see if they do come with regulation, maybe facebook could actually win to that i'm not saying they will but that's the other side of that argument. coming up we'll have full coverage of the alphabet earnings call. and gene muenster will stick around and give us that. the chart master will be here to explain and it's a smart money showcase investing legend larry robbins will be here fresh off his new idea he just presented at the sony

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welcome back to "fast money. today marks the 23rd annual ira sohm conference where some of the brightest minds share their own best investment ideas. larry robbins. >> i am joined by larry robbins

of glennview who just presented here at the soem conference. nice to see you. they call you a legend. >> definitely downgraded from legends. >> you spent your presentation on amazon and the supposed threats that don't really exist in terms of actually distributing drugs or being a seller of drugs. why don't you believe amazon move into a business dominated by the likes of the drug distributors >> specifically we're doing a presentation positive on mckesson and on express scripts and cvs, the overarching cloud that hangs over the industry, is they or won't they and how will they amazon enter that business? we believe that amazon is obviously the most respected company in the word. they have an unlimited patience. they have a very long-term horizon and been highly successful in everything they're doing. the market is being rational in terms of respecting and fearing

amazon's entry into different avenues. the barriers to entry are quite high let's take pharmaceutical distribution ups looked into getting this exact same business in 2006. you need separate custody around the united states. you can't commingle opioids or narcotics with other general merchandise goods. you need cold storage through the entire chain, plus you need to connect all the suppliers with all the customers but the customers aren't necessarily amazon's consumers the customers are the places where pharmacy actually happens and unlike many businesses which amazon has appropriately automated, there's always going to be a human pharmacist that has a role both regulatory and consumer preference because we're dealing with life saving medical issue. >> reporter: are there other reasons beyond the simple fact that it's a very difficult business to get in to it >> i think they will consider it and they may try to enter it in

some form. we of course respect the fact that the three of the most respected companies in the u.s. in the world, amazon together with jpmorgan and berkshire have decided to contribute their collective intellectual capital and financial capital in order to try to solve the issues of rising u.s. health care cost but rising u.s. health care costs are because of we're a demographically aging nation and because we're a compassionate nation and we spend a lot in end of life care i don't think any of us are going to change those facts and circumstances. it is important to realize that the out-of-pocket costs for pharmaceuticals is decreased by 15% over the last four years according to quvea. the overall price even for all pairs not just consumer has also similarly deflated we've seen these horrific headlines of generic pills. in life saving medicines they are expensive and cause

significantly angst on families in emergency situations. the average pharmaceutical inflation is much more under control today than in the '90s. >> reporter: and that is why >> the intervention of companies like managed care and the pbms who created these competitive formats such that two branded drugs will be deemed -- as well as bringing down the cost of bill by walgreen's, cvs and others, interdeucing 90 day pill producers. if there's two government programs where the government pays for drugs, medicare part b where the pbm and part d six years after it was introduced drug prices were 20% lower than the government projected in the case of part b they were not lower. we think the reason is simple. when you have a for profit middleman, when you have a for profit middleman who's neff and passion is reducing costs, they

tend to bequite effective at i and the industry we think has added a lot of value to pairs and to consumers. >> reporter: i want to circle back to a couple of thoughts i want to get to some other names in your portfolio because you've been involved in all of them let's just stay in this express scripts getting bought by cigna. are you supportive of that deal? >> yes that deal spreads trades at a 23 gross spread it will close by the end of the year the major hurds to the deal are shareholder vote by both sides as well as government approval. even though it has nothing to do with the at&t/time warner deal, the community is watching that deal as a bench mark for -- >> cvs is another one that's caught up. >> to the extent that the government fails in its quest to block those deals, you can see the spreads somewhat compressed. they'll either be a yes or a no at the end of the year while many people were surprised by cigna's acquisition, we did not own express before the deal.

we do understand respect and buy in to the concept, if you have scale on the managed care side and benefit management side, you can actually lower the per member per month cost by $20 or 5% per member per month and since cigna is mostly an aso business that mostly get passed on to customers. this merger actually be procompetitive and pro-customer which we think cause -- >> reporter: you believe in the strategic logic of the deal itself >> we do if the major five hmos could consolidate we thought that could deliver significant sale much to the agreement of hospitals. given the fact that the government established that those five players are likely the surviving five players, the next wave of reducing cost and increasing quality has to be through vertical integration such as we see in both of thez mergers. >> reporter: let's move on shire is another name in your

portfolio. it's 47 british pounds right now made up of cash and stock. are you supportive of that is that a price at which you would pay? would you be willing to take 50% of the consideration in the stock of a japanese pharmaceutical company >> we own shire not as an arb tros position, we own the companies because we believe they're great businesses that are trading at good or great prices. >> reporter: ultimately under uk, you know shareholders have a say potentially? >> in the case of shire, we believe they brought it upon themselves that they're in this position. the stock was trading below 1.30 per share. they'll own $15. any time a major company that thinks they have a growing franchise is trading at 9 times earnings they need to help themselves or attract shareholder activist or in the case of decadda

that corporate is effectively activist. it offers three levers of the value creation they'll take it up to 4.8 times and therefore they will create value that way they'll delever overtime the second way is there's a billion dollars that's worth about 10 billion to the kbhiened companies and the third thing which we think is important is people are concerned about shire's two headwinds, one in heme tolling and one in neuroscience and all farm ma companies have compounds that go off patent or subject to competitive obsow len sense. if we brought these two together, the impact of those cliffs will be significantly delieu tiff and that combined with the fact that japanese pharmaceutical companies trade at higher multiples i believe create a back end equity that's attractive we would encourage shire's board to go through a full and fair

process to compare all alternatives including things they can do with themselves but we are not scared of the concept of there being a transaction which has proposed in the fourth proposal would be 45% cash in the work that we've done in the last several weeks to date. at 12 times year one earnings, the deal's 35% agreeable to them looks attractive. >> reporter: nobody questions that some may wonder as to the composition, the leverage, the flowback issue of issuing all that equity would be something that would not attract the interest of a number of shareholders. >> for the traders, there's no question that people won't want to own a japanese equities for anybody with a two to three time horizon, there's substantial value creation to be had there. whether that's the superior offer or whether there's other opportunities we in the market await that. >> reporter: let's talk about another deal. cbs viacom i know you at least with many other shareholders have expressed concerns about what

cbs might pay. it's a controlled company. do you still have concerns about the economic value that might be taken away to a certain extent from cbs as a result of whatever it decides if, in fact, it even gets a deal with viacom? >> because it's a controlled situation we all recognize that there's this false choice, that both cbs and viacom need to gain scale in order to gain market presence and yet it's being sold to investors at the only way to get scaled is for those two to merge with each other. that's a false choice. our first preference would be an option to look at other opportunities. >> reporter: it's not going to happen. you know that? it's not going to happen. >> if you look at the economics, it may eventually happen the question is whether you merge them both together and do it or whether you do it now. we are in that zone where you might even think about just doing it directly. >> reporter: why do you own the stock? >> because the underlying cash flows are cheap and cvs is a reasonably scarce asset.

viacom's a different story they had historically successful brands which have great brand recognition but their programming was lacking over the intermediate term and in the midof of the a turn around. with the das of cbs, both showtime and cbs programming has been wonderful largely fueled by the human capital that runs cbs. >> reporter: so if leslie munoz was fired would you sell the stock? >> it all depends on price and events and what he is happened, et cetera. i think we would look at it and say, i think it's in the controlling shareholder's best interest to combine the companies but to provide them with the best human capital. there's a sacred covenant between controlling shareholders and the public markets that scratch each other's back. he's been a quasi controlling shareholder but the reason he's been so successful over time is because he's partnered with the public markets rather than been

an adversary of them there's an opportunity for national amusements to partner and we hope that's the path they choose. >> reporter: we might have been spend a lot more time on nooul. you may have also been involved in speaking to a number of the parties there. jeff smith, carl icahn, big egos but they got it done. why do you own the stock now do you believe they'll be effective under the leadership of mr. poll being? >> sure. we own the stock because we believe that some of the headwinds they were facing were transit tri. we don't blame mr. polk for hurricanes. we don't blame him for toys 'r' us's bankruptcy. hasbro traded up on difficult numbers today because it's well documented that toys 'r' us in is bankruptcy and liquidation. if they liquidate they won't go chapter 33. there are significant operating

issues we think that he's done a great job of documenting and raising. we think the people in the best position to evaluate that including the performance of the ceo is the new board and we think the new board does consist of three icahn appointees, three starboard appointees, both all economically and reputationally motivate today get to the right answers. we've seen promises of 6 billion or 10 billion of asset sales on a net basis. we would encourage the company and the board to evaluate all asset sales but don't be whet today a fixed number if it makes sense to do it and it reduces the span of control that new management needs to focus on, along with management, will well, then that's value creative let's not give away businesses because we made false promises with the settlement that's happened there can be a fresh look at fresh eyes at what we do believe is a large turn around. and we do believe these assets sales give the company flexibility to not only pay down debt but retire equity

in this market where everybody keeps telling us the market's so expensive and everything's picked over. we've now talked about five or six or seven stocks -- >> reporter: we have. >> so glennview i think we're stuck in the way back machine. we can't wait to hit the fast-forward button. >> reporter: perfect way to end. i checked them all off, larry. thank you. >> you talked faster than i do. >> reporter: nobody talks faster than you larry robbins -- or thinks faster than him as well. back to you. >> thank you, david. let's trade we've got pbm, media and pharma take your pick. >> it would be interesting to hear if larry thinks that cbs still cheap a couple years later when the whole multiple of the whole industry has gone around the fear around cbs is they were going to leave i think the take under at least the numbers we have so far says they won't cbs is worth owning here

i own viacom. >> we're all over the alphabet earnings call. gene muenster standing by as the stock is volatile after-hours. we'll bring you the latest comments after this break. here's what he is is coming up on "fast."

we have got a problem. a few problems actually. we're overproducing, overcrowding, and overheating. we've got aging roadways, aging power grids, ...aging everything. you're kinda bumming me out clive owen. no, wait... it gets worse. we also have the age-old problem of bias in the workplace. really... never heard of it. seriously? it's all over the news. i've heard of it.

ahh. the question is... who's going to fix all of this? an actor? probably not. but you know who can solve it? business. that's right. the best-run businesses can make the world run better. because solving big problems is what business does best. and doing good is just good business. shhh! sorry. so let's grow more food, with less water. and make healthcare, more healthy. it's okay, i've played a doctor. what have we got here? let's take on the wage gap, the opportunity gap, the achievement gap. together, we can tackle every elephant in the room. and save the rhino while we're at it. because, whatever the problem, business can help. and i know who can help them do it... welcome back to "fast money. rates are surging as the u.s. ten year yield hits the high level and that's causing more pain for one group of safety

stocks. bob pisani has the details. >> hello. higher rates are a problem for stocks but it's a particular problem for consumer staples companies because commodity inflation which is indirectly tied up with interest rate inflation is causing a real problem for this group overall and this group has got a lot of problems today kimberly clark reported earnings and they noted that profit margins were impacted by what they called significant commodity inflation. last week proctor & gamble said essentially the same thing higher commodity costs reduced earnings share by about five percentage points. commodity inflation is only one of the problems that consumer stapes companies are facing. the value of their brand names are declining as consumers opt for generic brands. also they have very little ability to raise rates even with inflation and as a result the margins are getting increasingly thin now, these issues have been building for several years but it's all come to a head in 2018

when they've gone into free fall with big names like kimberly clark, proctor & gamble and color rox and craft heinz down 20 to 22%. it's used to make the big plastic wrapping they have a lot of wrapping. but kimberly clark is also one of the world's biggest users of eucalyptus pulp which is used extensive to make toilet paper and paper towels. kimberly clark owns scott papers. who knew back to you. >> now we do bob, thank you our next guest says there's a size mick shift going on in the staples. hi, carter. >> it had been bad for a while and getting worse. let's look at charts and data and try to figure it out together one thing we know, last week was

epic let me just point to these stats. how epic only two other times in the history of the data going back to the 980s do you have the circumstance where staples as a sector down more than 4% and an up week for the markets. what's curious they were all in april. this happened in april of '93, in april of '99 and it just happened last week again, where the sectors down more than 4% in up week for the market what happens for the year, the other two times, was that staples ended up down. we're down now for the year and i think the point i would just make from the beginning is, bad things come from bad places. they were already down a lot. they got worse and there's no indication that really the weakness has run its course. so, the entire past ten years, 2009 to 2018, staples have only outperformed in three of ten years, and of course, in terms of results, they have done this

versus the market which has done that. so that not only tells you that they've been very reliably inconsistent in terms of results, the results are no good relative to the market. all right. let's look at the chart of that. this is back to the absolute law in '09 and the prior high. here are the lines and for the first time since the entire bull market we have broken trend. not a good circumstance. how about relative performance here's the worst part. here's that same long-term trend which we just broke and for the entire bull market, of course, no relative performance. underperforming all the way. they didn't help you on the way up and now they're starting to hurt more than the market on the way down. the group 34 stocks, 2 trillion, it's only 7.2% of the market at this point. here's a historical waiting. typically it's around 11%. we're down to 7.2679 the lowest

it's ever been is six. i think we're go sub-7. i want to stay under way or short this here's the final chart again once you break trend, more often than not it's the beginning of trouble. i still want to be under way staples. you can find a costco or brown foreman. >> thank you, carter. we're out of time today. so i cannot invite you over to the desk but you are in the pan theeion still. whatever guy wants to call it, thank you, carter. basically, we're getting competition from higher bond yields plus the technical case according to carter looks awful. >> proctor & gamble's fascinating to me. nelson peltz announced a stake in the company. we talked about it. we talked about valuation being ridiculous at the time the stock topped out around 93 bucks. it's around 52 week low. quickly, though. look at proctor & gamble i encourage you follow tocks play this game.

'92 stock was trading 55, $60, but middle 99 traded $25 look at the broader mark. 06/07, the stock was a $75 stock within six and a half seven months, the stock was trading 50. then look at the broader market. i brought up the fact that proctor & gamble was $93 last summer, 70 now is it that mean and this is what the leave it out there hanging, does the broader market follow in kind? >> are you going to give us an answer >> leave us hanging. >> something to think on as we head to break. still ahead alphabet volatile in the after-hours. we'll bring you those comments, plus it is a civil war. bitcoin versus bitcoin cash. both soaring to their highest levels in weeks. in the race to the top, hedge fund manager john pfeffer says there's one clear winner you will not believe how high he sees it going. find out when "fast money" returns. easy to analyze and take action?

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we've got breaking news. leslie picker has the details. einhorn trade what is it. >> the last investor presentation of the day, david einhorn calling for investors to short assured guarantee ticker ago. that company, of course, a bond insurer which he says the auditors and regulators have missed some of their malfeasance. it's like a melting ice cube

paying out the drops while it's still can. as you can see the stock down more than a half -- 1.5% in after-hours trading. back over to you. >> thank you very much, leslie. our producer reminds us, ackman shorted mbia that idea was also unveiled at the sohm conference many years ago. this is interest. >> one of david's greatest picks was allied capital years and years ago. he wrote that book on fooling all the people, something like that. these very tricky ones, i don't know what to make of it. he's a really smart guy. i would not bet against him. >> yeah. >> pretty significant move, this was a $45 stock in the summer. it's 35 now. i don't think mr. einhorn is looking for a move to $30. he's clearly looking for something bigger than that very tough to play the short game as many of the folks know, but it's something to watch for

sure it trades down to 30. another hot topic at the sohm conference was bitcoin. john pfeffer joining us. you want to go right to what you were predicting at the conference and that is that bitcoin rise to no less than 90,000 and potentially as high as 700,000 what sort of time frame are you looking for and can you lay out the case for the bear case i guess if you want to call it that for 90,000 and the bull case which is 700 grand? >> well, sure. the bear case is zero. >> okay. >> listen, these are all -- people should think of crypto assets as a venture capital investment it could go to zero but there's a chance that they could be worth much more. in the case of bitcoin, the $90,000 price would be what it would be worth if bitcoin became equal to private gold bullion holdings, about $1.6 trillion of

total value compared to 150 billion or thereabouts today. and, you know, it's a bet. it's a risk that i think is interesting and i'd being to take on the higher end you can get to higher values in bitcoins becomes a major currency countries take bitcoin into their reserves it could reach several hundred thousand dollars the problem about the of that is lower but it's a possibility and that's what you do when you make a venture capital investment. you're betting on potential outcomes. >> you're saying that bitcoin would have to replace a certain percentage, i believe you said, 25% of foreign reserves. what is the equivalent in terms of what currency out there that exists that's 25% just to give us an idea. >> so about -- so foreign reserves at 12.7 trltds in total, 11% of that is gold and about 60% of the rest, so is the dollar and then you've got a few other currencies, the pound, the

yen. the swiss franc, et cetera and the euro of course that make up the remainder. >> when you take a look at what bitcoin would replace, are you thinking emerging market currency severe devaluation first and you get a small percentage of, you know, the dollar, the euro -- i mean. >> yeah. >> the thing with the developed countries, obviously, there's such infrastructure that there's great competition, right, to be used -- there's no reason for somebody in the u.s., for instance, to say i'm going to transact only in bitcoin at least right now? >> i agree this is not about paying for coffee at least that's not -- that's certainly not my thesis. i completely agree in developed country like the u.s., there's no screaming need. in developing countries, or certainly countries with collapsed currency it is more important and could be used for daily use. when i think about the disz placement argument, i start with god. we're still using a yellow medal

as our value. at some point will come up with a better technology than that. and bitcoin is a better candidate to do that. and i start there. beyond that, i think there's some advantages to having a nonfeat based return currency that would see the other countries that, you know, as strategic rivals. we'll see if that happens. it's a long-term view. i'm not really interested -- i don't know how to predict short-term prices in this area. i'm thinking about what could these things be worth when they cease to be pure objects of speculation but are actually being used in the real economy that's years from now. >> right. 90,000 would be ten years, 20 years? how long term we talking about >> it could be sooner. let me be clear. so could zero. $90,000 is in my view relatively, quote, low bar that's only about -- only, about ten times the current price. right now it's mostly retail investors, not much as --

helping to get to that price. in the next couple of years. i don't know. i'm not -- to be honest, i don't want to make time point estimates. a venture capital is a long-term thing. the higher number of some kind of foreign reserve displacement that's a much longer term thing. >> john, thank you for your time. appreciate it. let's trade this b.k., what do you think? >> i like the way he thinks of this it is a business venture investment. if you're right about it and if goes to 90,000 that means you make 1,000%. if you're wrong about it, you lose 5%. that's a bet i'll take all day long. alphabet volatile in the after-hour sessions. privacy concerns on the call. we'll bring you those comments. more "fast money" still ahead.

it is one of the cheapest stocks around. it's growing at fast rates and i tend to think -- when i think about thesebusinesses, i think this is possible -- >> it can grow from a $3 billion or $30 billion. >> over ten years, yes. >> that was social capital on clb earlier today discussing his

bullish bet on box. after he said investors should be long box at the conference. options trader are already following his advice mike is breaking it down from austin. >> reporter: as soon as that news came out in the mid-of the day, we saw it grew to 25 times the average call volume by the end of the day and the most active options where the may 23 calls we saw over 6,000 of those at the end of the day. trading a dollar 15. this stock could rise above 24.15 by may expiration. four weeks away from now. >> thanks for that for more options action, check out the full show at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. much more "fast" on alphabet's conference call. stay tuned. ndistinguishable mu) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh.

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money. check out shares of alphabet. the conference calls wrapping up moments ago. let's get to gene muenster for the details. what was the most important thing on the call? >> the privacy topic finally came up. they addressed the rule melissa. the ceo had a great response, which is that their search business which is -- 90% of their business really doesn't use personal data. it uses your keywords so that's going to be a relatively insight. it's important for investors to know i'm going to make another quick bet here ten years the third biggest business of google is their self-driving car ahead of cloud. >> gene, grade the earnings report >> it's right down the middle. this is a b. they did enough to maintain the stock and still have their you position in the future. >> what do you recommend -- here's a would you rather, like 20 seconds a dollar today in google and

knowing the earnings report or a dollar right now in facebook not knowing what they'll report? >> i'll take $3 in google. >> $3 in google. all right. that's fascinating. thank you. >> for me, i'll see what happens. 9:30 tomorrow morning. if we're up you buy that momentum. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim seymour. >> if we had time we would talk energy there. >> karen >> i'm with gene. got my money in alphabet. >> we talked a lot about energy inflation and inflation in the staples, how do you hedge your portfolio against that you buy silver. >> did you ever get a b in school be honest. you know the answer. don't play the game. >> never, never b ever. >> in college, in organic chemistry. that's why i'm not a doctor. >> amongst many reasons. newell rubbermaid, mel. we talked about. this he makes a very compelling

case on valuation. the stock has troughed in my opinion. >> don't go anywhere "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer.