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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  April 25, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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giddyup. >> seaburg >> at&t. i'm a buyer. >> twitter on the pullback. >> thanks for being here, mcc. you're a pro hca, day two. >> all right cool "mad money" with jim cramer begins rightow d'tove. n great having you my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. after spending most of the day in the red, the market roared higher this afternoon.
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not bad. not bad. but i want to say right at the top if we get more strength tomorrow, i think you should use it to take profits and reposition rather than getting all excited and going on in. especially, fridays have been migh mighty rough around here i don't want you to give up and go home let alone sell everything if i thought there was real systemic risk, i would tell you get out of dodge there are very good reasons to be concerned here. reasons why you should use any real strength as an opportunity to do selling. at the end of every show i tell you there is always a bull market somewhere the problem is there simply aren't as many bull markets as there were a few months ago. terrific numbers from boeing and
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norfolk this evening we will be interviewing amd ceo tomorrow morning on "squawk on the street." i can't wait to talk to her. chipotle issued significant numbers and we will have brian niccol we've also had companies with fantastic numbers but a lot of good stocks like the banks have nothing in response to those rip roaring quarters i find that risk reward somewhat worry some let me explain, while i remain optimistic, i am wary, i am picking tonight to talk more conservatively, because there is
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enough good news this very evening from deferent sectors. it is reasonable to expect a good day or good morning tomorrow the way i see it, this market has a dozen different worries that i am losing a little sleep over let's tick them down president trump's tariffs on $100 billion on chinese goods could come any day now we still don't know what he is going to target. tons of companies that rely on imports from china once the president decides what to target, do you think the chinese are going to say no problem? no they will reta they will retailuate
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pain third, nafta i keep hearing the negotiations are going smoothly the idea is hard to swallow. peso is doing nothing. and it would be going up here if those talks were going really well fourth, those exemptions expire may 1st. some steel prices are up 50% year after year. fifth, the president has threatened to put tariffs on european cars. we have a 2.5% duty on european imports. but, if the president goes ahead with this, let's say the timing
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would be pretty darn terrible. six, if trump does increase europe tariffs europe will reat thtaliate. eighth, syria, remember syria? not long the market had severe reaction the next day syrian president was seen laughing, laughing with his russian advisors what happens the next time he uses chemical weapons. this issue is going to keep stalking us. ninth, inflation is here some is government mandated. some of it has to do with shortages caused by high demand. the cost of freight is bid up everywhere i think the explosion of
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ecommerce is driving this. too many packages and not enough ways to ship also oil surge in demand. and o pec nations. combine with the slow down with tariffs and the bears are going to say, stagflation. you heard it here. i just need to put it in front in this show too tenth, peak earnings yesterday's bizarre caterpillar. and then decked you by saying the last quarter was the high water mark, i didn't hear much about peak earnings. opens the flood gates to all of this chatter about a peak. i heard it all day on many conference calls we know we hit peak auto, that
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was ages ago stock went up, but an easy case to make. 11, the tech arms race f.a.n.g has begun a battleground if netflix wants to stay ahead of the competition, they need to spend a fortune. same goes for facebook and of course amazon conquering the world. i still like f.a.n.g, and these are growth companies growth companies should be spending as you will see later in the show. many investors take a dim view twelfth is the one that everybody talks about nonstop and i put it low and that is interest rates the one thing i don't need to worry about because everyone is
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doing it from me i don't think higher rates for this level is the end of the world even as they are up dramatically from the 26 lows. more on that later the algorithm say the yield and the ten-year crossing catastrophic now, it doesn't take a genius to figure out any of these. the fact is, there is nothing on this list that can be undone by time or lower prices it can take us lower even if we are already down substantially bottom line, we are going to get through this we always do and we do it together you need to stay the course. because i don't see big systemic risk and caution is warranted and yeah, let's just a reasonable to expect that something bad could happen the market needs to run a brutal gauntlet, and the current gauntlet is harder to navigate
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than anything we have seen if a long time and that is what is bothering me you might want to use additional strength tomorrow. raise some cash. cindy in pennsylvania. >> caller: all right, jim, how are you? >> good. how about you? >> caller: good. thank you. my question concerns supervalu this unnamed buyer has given an option for a leaseback of guarantee of 20 years with renewable options every five years. supervalu has historically bought failing businesses like albertson's. and it seems like their business plan is to reassign holdings then re-selling the newly purchased businesses
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but the grocery warehousing and sales to stores is the second thought. >> here is the problem, it is not particularly well run and doesn't have a good balance sheet. at the same time costco is very well run and it has a fabulous balance sheet. that is why i am going to tell you even up here, i like costco a heck of a lot more than supervalu. skip in colorado. >> caller: how are you >> good. how are you? >> caller: booyah. i am in lafayette, louisiana jim, wynn resorts. talk to me tell me your thought on this i have to tell you, i looked at the numbers yesterday, they blew it out >> you are right, the quarter was terrific a lot to like that was good. but i think that people anybody
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the end want steve wynn back, and they are not going to get him. he ain't coming back a wynnless wynn says go buy mgm. it is not an easy market on "mad money" tonight, the ten-year treasury bill telling you what it means for the global economy going forward. then the market has been a roller coaster of late i am opening the phone lines to help you navigate the unknown. google, facebook, and other tech giants are spending a ton. is that a good thing or a bad thing. stick with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter
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have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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for weeks i have been trying to prepare you for the moment when the yield on the benchmark ten-year treasury crosses 3% and sure enough we breached that number yesterday morning and all hell broke loose you now have lots of investors and commentators acting like this is indeed the end of the world or at the very least, i should say the end of the bull that's why tonight i wanted to explain to you exactly why the ten-year breaching 3% has so many people panicking and more importantly why i think their fear is misplaced. this is not the equivalent of the communist crossing the 38
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peril. it is consequence of a strong economy both here and around the world. i warned you when we cross 3%, the market wouldsell off hard because investors have gotten so used to lower rates and the 3% level is significant emphasis on significant. well, no, actually emphasis on symbolically that is why i wanted to say for a moment, did you see the market today? stayed at 3% and opened at 300 and then came right back my goal here is to put this whole scenario into proper context which i think has been sorely lacking the truth is have good reasons why money managers feel low and high interest rates. higher rates are net negative for the economy. commerce lends on lending,
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everything is keyed off of it. so when it goes up, you are going to be paying more for auto loan, business loan. banks are the ones doing the lending and they take the rates higher and str higher a higher and translates to more money in their pocket. and for everybody else, it hurts a little bit and the pain adds up and that is why people were freaking out lower rates are better for the stock market than higher rates that is a given. and to be fair, rates have moved up fairly dramatically in a short period of time especially in a relative basis. look at this first chart, dipped down to roughly 2% and now it is a above 3% isn't that a huge increase not so fast. 3%, even after this tremendous
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jaunt is insanely low. if you look at this chart for the last 100 years, it shows that back before the great recession, you need to go back to the 1950s before you find a period where the ten-year was under 3% rates got this low because the economy nearly blew up ten years ago. it was catastrophic. buying long-term bonds to artificially force down long-term interest rates and spur lending it worked. fed doesn't get enough credit. now the fed is gradually unloading those longer term holdings and rates are pushed higher now that makes the picture murky, the main cause of rising treasury yields a stronger economy alludes a lot of people. they don't want to leave them
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sitting around in treasury bonds and when treasury prices go down, their yields go up higher rates hurt the economy but it is also a sign of economy strength eventually they go high enough, and the economy slows down whole boom cycle starts again. that is unavoidable, frankly, and that is the fear the 3% is nowhere high enough to send us in recession, at least not on its own a lot to worry about growing budget deficit that they ult m ultimately, causes a further spike in rates but the ten-year crossing the 3% threshold is pretty low on my list of concerns that i talked
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about at the top of the show why? because i have lived through many periods where the market rose higher in spite of interest rates. when i got into the business in the early '80s it was 10%. consider the chart of the yields during the 19 nineties this was a period of falling interest rates but three periods in the 90s when the yield and the ten-year surged higher and you can see all of them. in '94, the s&p shed but the dow gained 2.1%. and not great, but hardly the end world. 1996, dow gained 26% and what a year that was for me. i will take it and in 1999 everybody made money. insane runs.
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dow flying 25% nasdaq losing its mind and gaining 85%. 1999 was shortly before the dot com bubble imploded. back then you had plenty of opportunities to take profits before the implosion you have to remember that bulls make money bears make money, and pigs, well, pigs they get slaughtered. how about a more recent example. look at this chart from mid-2003 to 2007. four years of steadily rising rates. and what happened? let's see the s&p climbed nearly
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55% during the period. dow gained i can hear some of you already, in 2007, resulting the worst economic catastrophe eventually rates may well rise to the level where they send us into a recession that is what happened in 2007. but again, nowhere near those levels we had four years of the stock market rallying like a champ we have plenty of time and you can always take profits. you can take profits there is nothing wrong with riding a rally higher and then ringing the register when things get precarious so what do you own in this post 3% as i mentioned, this is nirvana for the banks, the most
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beneficiaries. same for the smaller regional banks, i like first horizon. the banks can all go a little bit lower here, stocks go lower, and it is okay they get cheaper what else tends to work in these environments big cap tech stocks. i am a fan of alphabet and also as the added advantage of not doing business in china worried about china, but intel works too. and you can own the safe industrials that benefit from a strong economy that is typically what you are supposed to be buying. boeing reported an amazing quarter. fans of united technology. and club owns honeywell. i have united technology in the bullpen for club members of
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actualownersplus.com greg hays what a conference call stocks pay big fat dividends versus risk free treasuries. they need to generate gigantic earnings to give you a reason to stay and you get a high yielder who blows out the number member we had six flags and they reported excellent numbers and that stock rallies 8.9%. or to get things really going, say with consumer package good stocks taking bold action like breaking up the company for sale or you have to pass. bottom line, this is the wrong thing to worry about here. this market has plenty of other problems as i have mentioned them all at the top, ticked them
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all down the ten-year by itself is not enough to slay the bull. it just means you need to be more selective and less panicky when executing that discerning strategy stick with cramer. your muscles look good, but we should be seeing more range of motion. i'm fine. okay, well let's see you get up from the couch. i'm sorry, what? grandpa come. at cognizant, we're uniting doctors, insurers and patients on a collaborative care platform, making it easier to do what's best for everyone's health,
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there is always a bull market somewhere yes, i'm standing by that of course but this one is a wild one today's gains are certainly a pre from yesterday's sell offs including facebook, good numbers of visa, we might have a good thursday morning mu so there is an opportunity and i don't want you to miss it. tonight i am opening up the phone lines to hear from you, the voices of cramerica.
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i want to hear your thoughts and questions and concerns we will interact with each other. let's get started. pedro in florida. >> caller: booyah. >> glad you called how can i help >> caller: so my question is, with interest rates going up and trade war in china getting more and more severe. how do i treat my financials, facebook is my main concern right now. >> look, it is case by case. facebook doesn't have a lot of chinese exposure and they reported good numbers you did smart buying i think you are good a lot of tech companies do have exposure to china. so you have to be prepared for
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something, retaliation this with weekend. and let me ask you, are you comfortable with the level of volatility that we have not seen in ages for technology >> caller: absolutely. i am a big believer in technology. >> can i ask you how would you are? >> caller: yes. >> how old are you >> caller: 24. >> you have got your whole life ahead of you -- i don't. i'm a little later in the game but you have got the opportunity and you should ride it out and if you get real weakness based on this continued trade war, you do more buying congratulations on picking up facebook when everyone else was running from it. michael in indiana. >> caller: cramer, how are you today? long time listener throwing you a booyah from indiana university. >> how much fun did we have when
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we went there. what is up love it. >> caller: yes, sir, yes, sir. i want to talk to you about the 102 index. solid way to see when a recession is coming. and it happened in the '80s, and y2k and 2008 as well we have been moving closer to that again and that index is trending down, but in the last few weeks, the ten-year yield has skyrocketing to 3% but still hearing a lot of rumors about possible recessiona recessiona recessionary period. do you think we are heading down a recessionary path? >> if there were not for retaliation that i think is correct by the president, it would be hard to believe that we
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could be going anywhere near recession. do you think because you are probably studying these very issues, do you think the trade war is going to go beyond china, be in europe and do you see lots of tariff barriers being placed around the world >> i could see it extending to europe where i think it is going to affect more is the southeast asian, emerging markets. china has been down the past few weeks and that is a direct relation to the tariffs. but i think you are going it see a lot of smaller emerging markets being affected by those tariffs heavily than europe. >> my translation, that would be unlikely to have a recession -- i like your analysis by the way. and we are not going to have worldwide tariffs and a situation of global economic activity diminishes. we will have a normal recovery
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in this country and that means stay the course. antwan in new york. >> caller: hey how are you doing there? hey, booyah, first and foremost. and just wanted to ask a question around forescout technology over the past week, i have seen it going down. should i be buying down the dip? >> i want you to buy more of it. this is one that we call secular growth areas, when we met with fire site ceo, i had to give him the thumbs up too. but my favorite is proof point that is the best seth in massachusetts.
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>> caller: i have been getting my info from a lot of you guys most of it good. with all the information you guys have been passing along since february, involves a market not selling hanging tight, being okay don't panic. >> right. >> caller: and buying on the dip and taking advantage of the downturn, what money is it we are supposed to be using to buy these dips with. i have got a cash account, but that was really for just having cash in case the bottom fell out. and your advice to not sell stocks what do you recommend? >> well, you got to get with the beat first of all. >> caller: what i think you have got to do, is we have these huge spikes up. and you look at this stuff that didn't report a great number but got taken up in general with the
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rest of the market and you trim. you do cutting maybe you raise 7% we did the same strategy for action alert for club member suspecs. and we raised 11% cash we want the cash when we get hit again. ten-year, all of those things, you want some cash ed in florida. >> caller: >> ed? that is skocooby-doo. tough crowd. where do you think we should go? >> i think we should wrap it. >> we are going to just wrap it up because that is probably our best situation but how about that beat that that gentleman had
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i think we should -- he got with the beat in the end. this market is easily navigated. but there is good news and bad news just raise a little cash into a spike. and then you will be ready much more "mad money" ahead. getting the inside story on the clash of 2 of wall street's most aggressive players a ring master. and then explaining why the skyrocket spending may not be a bad thing facebook and tonight rapid fire, tonight's edition of the "lightning round." stick with cramer. once there was an organism so small no one thought much of it at all. people said it just made a mess until exxonmobil scientists put it to the test.
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sometimes truth is stranger than fiction five years ago two notorious investors bill ackman and carl icahn, they clashed over herbal life the whole thing became personal really fast. it was surreal
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in the end, icahn made a killing in herballife. let's check in with cnbc's scott wapner who wrote a book about it welcome to "mad money. >> we are going to go right back we are going to go right back and play a tape and then do narration. >> let's do it. >> the war of words between two hedge fund heavy weights is heading up with icahn bashing hackman. this is not an hon neest guy. >> ackman does -- he has one of
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the worst reputations on wall street and he is like the cry baby in the schoolyard. >> he called me up and said we can be friends and i said to him, you are no friend of mine. >> i never said i wanted to be friends of you you said to me, you would like it be friend ss so we invest. >> do you think i want to invest. >> as great as that was. the book "when the wolves bite," is so much more exciting than the tape tell me what was going on right then. >> when that was going on, after it was over i could barely remember anything that had happened because i was shell shocked like everybody else who watched it all of this emotion spilled out
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on to live television and you could hear in the clip we just played, in the background, those were the traders on the floor of the new york stock exchange. trading volume dropped. >> we are "mad money." let's talk herbalife in reality, these two personalities overshadowed the company they were playing with. >> the personalities were so big. i don't think many people knew about herbalife. >> no one had gotten back in it. no one knew what was going on. you did. i don't know how you got that stuff. it was incredible. >> the access made the book and i was surprised they participated as much as they did. but for a long time, they were so quiet. >> in many way, until think
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brought in a political operative, they seemed naive about this both their friend and their enemy. >> i think they thought it was going to last a matter of months and the whole thing would be over carry the weight of the anti ackman if you will until allen hoffman came in. chief of staff for vice president biden. and he changed the game. this is not working. we need to be much more aggressive we need to take the fight to ackman. >> why did ackman make it so binary what was that about? >> he was betting the government was going to intervene and shut
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h herbal life down i laid out the strategy and what he did. >> it read so fast it was a page turning. did icahn bet with -- >> you know, revenge is a powerful thing but psyicahn is not stupid. if he didn't believe he would make a lot of money in herbalife, he wouldn't have done it. >> i was there i watched it i knew all of the figures. i didn't, it turned out i knew nothing. this book is a page turner even if i, hey i wouldn't give you my, whatever, i love the
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book great. "mad money" back after the break.
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>> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade it is time it is time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." we'll play this sound -- [ buzzer ] -- and then the lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for the lightning round on cramer's "mad money." starting with barbara in new york. >> caller: booyah, jim question about u.s. steel. >> no. we are not buyers of u.s. steel.
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we like nucor. nucor had a great number it just seems like people don't care eric in ohio. >> caller: booyah. i am looking at ball metal. >> i like ball this is an industry of cans that not a lot of players in it and i think ball is a big winner edward in florida. >> caller: hi, how are you >> good. how are you? >> caller: great teva. >> not good enough there is a bunch of really good drug companies that give us that and i feel happier with those. joel in illinois. >> caller: booyah. cma group, what is happening >> that is an ideal group.
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well run i think mr. duffy has done a fantastic job. i like the choice. beth in new jersey. >> caller: hi, jim, i would like your input if it is the right time to buy shares in aqua america. >> this is an economy that is hot. and typically in a hot economy, that is not the stock to buy even though it is a well-run company all right. >> caller: mckee d's. >> i am saying yes to mcdonald's daniel in new york. >> caller: hi, jim calling about mueller water. >> don't like the numbers here and that is the conclusion of
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the "lightning round". >> announcer: lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade ys than i am my college days. hm. i'm thinking... will i have enough? should i change something? well, you're asking the right questions. i just want to know, am i gonna be okay? i know people who specialize in "am i going to be okay." i like that. you may need glasses though. yeah. schedule a complimentary goal planning session today with td ameritrade.
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people keep getting nervous when they see big tech companies spending like mad to meet demand even though i have to tell you, it is working. what the heck are they supposed to do with the money burn it. i have been struck by how
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oblivious people are to the new food chain alphabet and amazon are seeing explosive growth amazon just racked up one -- to meet the demand of youtube facebook just reported great numbers. did incress by 121% versus last year as pointed out in a terrific piece by the f.a.n.g arm race. alphabet spent on equipment. just imagine how much computing pour they need to meet the insane demand.
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wall street hates it when these company's capital expenditure surge like this. even as everyone is writing their obituaries when you are looking at tech, you want innovative companies with so many opportunities that they don't want to just save the money or shell out dividends it would be bad business decisions to do that you know what would be better if they tap into the gigantic war chest to capitalize on the stunning growth of the cloud confused let's look at this from another angle. we have heard from many big real estate investment trusts we spoke last year to cirrus 1 they told us we are just at the beginning of the adoption phase of the cloud tons of companies that have yet
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to move away from old fashioned software that is the gold rush. you want these people in there when these companies do move, they are going to sign up with amazon web service, and google and azure. the return on investment should be multiyear and fantastic compare that to the consumer packaged goods company or the energy companies the heavy industrials need to invest heavily in equipment. they are getting a much smaller return than at alphabet or amazon or facebook in those industries, it simply is understood that this is the cost of doing business the same goes for the cloud place. they have to spend to win. even though they have so much
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left over, they can do an increased b increased buy back the incredible surge and demand is more than amazon, facebook. it ends up meaning they are is going to be equipment bought from amd, nvidia and micron. you better believe a lot of alphabet's cap x is going to go to those companies too red hat, vmware, service now and splunk get the most out of it we like those too. that is why i think these stocks are so terrific long-term and unwilling to abandon them even though the market tends to throw them away when the ten-year hits 3% the next time you blanch when you see insane levels of spending, remember, they are doing it for a reason. this spending is necessary
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imperative even. if these companies are going to generate phenomenal sales and amazing earning growth, which is what we want them to do. they are doing what they are supposed to do don't run from it. embrace it stick with cramer. imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs.
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one winner the 2018 cnb stock draft kicks off tomorrow and yours truly will be doing the color and it will be epic. power lunch indeed tonight, we have advance micro came ridge, what was that thing? paypal may have been a big star tonight. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm jim cramer, and i will see you tomorrow
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