we heard from burke and pfizer we were positive briefly but the dow futures down by about dra25 points on the first day of may continue to watch apple as we get them after the bell today. that does it for us. make sure you join us tomorrow it's time for squa"squawk on the street." ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faver will talk to wilbur ross in the next hour. and the fed decision tomorrow as a two-day meeting begins today most european markets are closed for may day. dollar near a four month high. a road map begins with futures

moving lower investors weighing earnings. the fed tea leaves easing trade fears as key allies get a tariff exemption. apple anxiety awaiting the metrics from the iphone outlook and the overseas pile of cash. a we enter a new month today with stocks having eked out gains for april. trades in the mix, of course, the white house extended the steel and aluminium tariff exceptions for canada, mexico, and the eu for 30 days you were worried about deadlines, jim, and how it would weigh on the market. >> i mean, i hope that david's interview with wilbur ross does give us a little clarity i think we're in suspended animation here it's difficult to go by a industrial without knowing what is going to happen there difficult to buy a retail company after some of the

reports we've had. it's difficult to commit capital. at the same time, carl, why isn't the market dumping why isn't the market dumping because people don't -- there's a i think people are starting to fear that the president gets lucky. >> fear that the president gets lucky? >> and gets china to do something that makes it so, oh, boy, if we're short. if we're too negative, that money will come back in. everyone is just waiting we need to see oil down a little people are tired about inflation inputs we need to see more negativity in the futures yesterday was a really disspirited day. once again, the future traders, they came in based on nothing. they had nothing other than mcdonalds. the other day mcdonalds up and everybody else down. you need something more than a fast food chain to drive the market higher. >> you tweeted this morning there's all kinds of stories

about trouble today. the times has a piece. "washington post" has a piece about inflation cutting disposable income. you say there is good news it does happen. >> i interview really boring companies like regional banks. like yutilities. the banks are saying there's more business being done i'm not getting from main street that things are bad. i'm getting from newspaper street that things are bad and i'm not trying to be like a politician or whatever i just -- i mean, i deal with too many companies that are hiring and they want these -- on the one hand, we have companies saying hiring like mad other is saying that companies aren't hiring. they're saying we're going it buy back stock can we get a positive article that said there's business being done in this country that's what we need. >> david, if there is one like that today, it's the cover of the "ft" $120 billion in global

m & a. $1.7 trillion for the year that's above the precrisis highs. >> yeah. you know, carl, there are a lot of bankers that have given the proliferation of both ceos, management clients, all sorts of different people it's valuable for them i've been able to catch up with a few. it's going to continue we're in late stage to a certain extent for a number of different industries, including perhaps telecom and cable. and late stage brings deals and large regulatory scrutiny and this enormous amount of time that seems to go by before we get an answer on some of these things whether it's here or in china, for example, as we wait on qualcomm and nxp a number of deals held up there. yeah, it will continue from what i hear, we can expect to continue to see a pace of deal making not just at&t but consumer and energy as we saw

yesterday with the endeavor deal, jim. >> yeah. i'm glad you mentioned that. we have too many companies in every industry we have so many companies in the data storage industry. yet you get a consolidation and something they have pricing power versus, say, an amazon we have so many companies that are taking boil and competing on for gasoline they are able to make a lot of profit those companies are terrific we have a sense that if you get a company like -- they reported a great number this company is doing well maybe in the out years it didn't have a drug that was not approved they take matters into their own hands. they say, listen, our stock is too cheap. but everybody yauns because we want to focus on the fact that merck didn't do the number they are so nonpromotional i have to promote them i'm getting tired. i'll do the promoting for you, sir. you have the most greatest

wonder drug in history do you mind saying positive or do you want me to do it? >> some companies like to underpromise, jim. >> he's under promised and overdelivering it's okay to say i'm delivering. hey, i'm doing a good job. so you're doing a good job it's okay. there's nothing wrong with saying you're doing a good job and keytruda is a great drug it's a wonder drug what happened to things like wonder drug. why do we have to say, drugs, save us -- >> to your point about trade, jim, at the beginning of the segment, david did talk to joe about that very point on a week where, of course, our delegation, david, is heading to china for the meetings later in the week. >> there's a temporary lift in terms of the relationship. there's an ongoing trade war but we're looking at is beyond that

and in a way, this trade war comes at an ironic time. we are at a time in history when china is shifting from a manufacturing export-led economy to a consumption economy there are 300 million chinese consumers that are demanding and desiring to buy from all over the world. so there's a great opportunity for producers from america, from europe to sell to china. >> all right, david, thoughts on that >> well, you know, of course, as you know, carl, we were there last june in detroit where that is alibaba attracting small businesses with the ability to sell to 300 consumers. the company's chairman said it could be something in danger if you go down this road of a trade war in terms of our market

perhaps also becoming closed off to a certain extent when it's about to really grow and as we know, the chinese have been trying to create a lot more of a consumer-driven demand economy from the one that is lead by exports for all these years. >> that's a great point. look, there is no doubt in any one's mind if we have a full scale worldwide trade war where we tell them you can't have -- we tell the europeans you have to get rid of the tariff you put on us. tell the chinese, we've had it here come the tariffs. then everything is too high. it is. some real estate investment trust and utilities and domestics that have no inputs. yes, everything is too high. that's a lot of things that have to go wrong. >> to your point about suspended animation. yesterday south korean

industrial production misses today exports down 1.5 we were looking for up three right. i mean, even the trade war. >> march was not a great month i do not really clear how april was. you get a point where you have unseasonably cool weather. farmers are supposed to be planting i can go on and on then i'm stuck with these facts. eaten reports a fantastic quarter. what am i supposed to do with that i guess i can throw it away. allison transmission a company in every single truck. but then they said it's not that good and tapestry, i mean, i'm back thinking that carol king is tapestry and the industry isn't. i have good and bad. north american customers didn't place a lot of orders. apple. i know you're not allowed to say apple. let's say apple reports they

sold no phones but returned 3 $300 billion people will sell it down and turn $300 billion and warren buffett will tell becky quick this is the greatest opportunity in the world so you'll sell it today and buy it monday. i don't know it seems counter intuitive. >> we'll get that number tonight. what do you think it will be >> jeez, i think the service revenue will be good i think there's a lot of phones. what can i say >> the shareholder return? i mean, some organizations have $400 billion. >> if i were them, i would announce a number not that great and wait a couple of days. let everybody puke it up and buy it don't take those people out. let them sell! and then buy it back that would be katcatastrophic fr the stock. but, you know, let the sunshine soldiers, you know, let these -- thomas paine quote let's let them out that's what i would do, if i were him i just think that, you know, let

the people of the money out. a lot have analysts have cut number cut number i don't know if anybody is left. i thought that before in some stocks and turns out there's somebody that said apple -- i like my ten. it wakes my wife or husband up when i press that button i can't get the quotes. >> yeah. >> all right. >> thanks for nothing, tapestry. >> wilbur ross in the next hour, right? >> yep yeah i'll have him around the top of the 10:00 hour at least 10:00 your time it's still very early here, by the way, guys. just to point it out. >> you're like one of those djs, you know, like oh and let's play "misty" for me. >> i've been waking up like at the same time you do, you know 4:00 it's inhuman that's not something you should be doing on a regular basis. just so you know yes, wilbur ross. >> he's not benching 300 pounds

when he wakes up either, right >> i have my trainer there he wakes up at 3:00. look, the early bird doesn't get jack anymore but it's worth trying. >> all right, david. we can't wait for that a lot to come. when we come back, the t-mobile sprint deal and the company's push to get regulatory approval. new developments today another look at the premarket. haven't had a down may since 2012 for a whole three indexes futures are weak back in a moment at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your manufacturing business. & so this won't happen. because you've made sure this sensor and this machine are integrated. & she can talk to him, & yes... atta, boy. some people assign genders to machines. and you can be sure you won't have any problems. except for the daily theft of your danish. not cool! at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on.

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xfinity. the future of awesome. now the t-mobile and sprint announced their $26 billion all stock deal the challenge to convince regulators to approve the merger yesterday john legre of t-mobile told us he's optimistic the deal will get the green light >> i will tell these t-shirt and sneakers will be in the white house, the doj, the fcc in the next few days. i'll answer every single question about what they want to talk about because i've got the right story on our side. we'll drive 5g that this country needs. we'll save it. we'll super charge the

uncarrier. broaden the rural america opportunities. broadband opportunities. lower prices, and more jobs. talk about it any way you want, shareholders will reap huge value. the deal will be approved. it will take some time but i'll be in there in my language and clothes talking about what is good for the americans some of the commentary this morning is cautious about whether or not this actually does go through. >> yeah. actually, i didn't see much commentary that was positive about it stocks are acting as if it's game over before they get started. i thought that john really made a pretty compelling case in that this is a justice department that is not really influence that much by president trump but whey heard is what president trump wanted. >> we're going to get on the sales today. from the automakers that are giving them on a monthly basis we'll get to phil debow for ford. >> carl, ford down 4.7% last

month in line with the expectations ford is the tale of two companies now. the car business, forget about it that's why they're throwing in the towel. down 13.88% last month the truck business continues to chug along the f-series had the best april since 2000 think about that go back 18 years also, fiat and chrysler numbers better than expected up 4.5% last month expectations decline of 3.7% much like ford it's the truck business ram sales up 3% last month we expect the sales rate to come in somewhere in the 16.9 to 17.1 million mark when we see it a little bit later on today. >> all right, phil, thank you very much. >> yeah, this is what i'm talking about. we hear a lot that nobody is spending but who buys these small trucks? it tends to be small business. f-150 small business what is ford doing getting out what it's losing i think that the next will put

out of latin america entirely. ford stock can't get out of its own way because there are concerns about electric cars and whether younger people buy cars. ford is doing everything it can to make money and nobody cares fiat had terrific numbers and no one cares. i'm saying that coupled with the fact we may be in a worldwide trade war and, of course, president trump would say we've been in one but haven't fought back yet it's making so anyone is interested in looking at ford. ford is doing a lot of things under mr. hack et to make it so you like them. the one thing they're not doing is making it so that people say it's 2018. what they're doing is setting you up for a good twooinlt we're in may and it's too far for people to look if they close all the divisions that are losing money, it will be terrific. >> interesting they're basically doing away with sedans over the next few years. >> they want to make money i mean, what a shocker they decided we're not going to be all things.

we'll no longer be a car company that makes cars everywhere regardless of making money isn't that what we want out of a company. i think it is. it's not getting any traction. i think what they need to do is get that yield up. like in the '80s people said, you know, i'm going to own ford because the balance sheet is good and they're returning a lot of capital and i want interest. and that's what is going to have to drive that stuff. >> so to finish our thought on t-mobile and sprint. does your thinking evolved from yesterday? >> i continue to believe they answer a lot of objections i know that it's going to be presented as being a way that -- look, that man john legre promised certain things. and you would approve the deal if you believe it. i went over all the promises he made over the last five years, actually, since he was in 2000s, and he's exceeded every promise. so why should i believe that when he raises his hand, i know

he has a jokey style and said there will be more people and price competition. why am i supposed to say, you know, he has no credibility but he has the highest credibility in the whole industry. so i don't think he's sitting there making things up yes, he wears -- he's flamboyant but he backs up everything he's said i think he's saying there will be price competition and put a lot of people to work. i like it. i have studied him those who are doubting this deal, please, study what this man has said quarter after quarter after quarter. he's always exceeded what he said he's always lived up to his promises and people aren't going to do that. >> david, how about you? how do you answer skeptics that say how do you keep prices low and increase investment. is it riding on the promise of synergy? >> ah, there's a lot of questions, carl. no doubt and i think it will be difficult for them to answer them, at least without the actual opportunity to put the companies together to improve what they say is going to be the truth they're going to be making the

arguments in the weeks to come and the fcc and the doj and members of the congress and the white house. i'm sure anybody will listen in d.c. will get a visit from the man in red there's a 10% spread given the spread i don't know in terms of value we've gotten like terms of growth spread you may not get a lot of money coming in to attack that spread right now. because people still see this as probably no better than 50/50 at best >> well, david knows more than i do i do believe when that man makes a prompts, he that is delivered i'm not backing away from that judgment. >> guys, we'll get cramer's mad dams dash when we come back. got to get to under armour this morning. news out of amazon some calls on facebook a lot more when "squawk on the street" continues.

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six minutes to the opening bell cramer's mad dash on the first day of may. >> yeah, last week cater pillar provided a number that looked great on the surface really fabulous earnings then in the conference call it said, look, it's the high water mark not for the earnings, necessarily, but for the margins which put pressure on the earnings they didn't say it was over cummins said strong demand it reads so well

and then, boom, some disappointing for interest, tax, and depreciation it's a mimic of caterpillar end market strong. we won't make as much money. this stock will prove, once again, the thesis that david talked about, which is where the high water mark, and that was the term caterpillar used. you have to get out of the stocks my problem is, you are going to find that if broad costs come down, you'll have sold cummins at a price too low if raw costs stay elevated, then it's never too late. that's the die cchotomy. if energy and steel goes higher. if world trade is stifled baytar riffs. you'll say why did i stick around it's going to go here. if the president wins in china, raw costs go down, oil is at its peak for the year. well, you'll say why didn't i take a shot. >> by the way, the stock never stops going down

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you're watching squa"squawkn the street". the opening bell in just over a minute big day today with apple earnings tonight extension of the tariff exemptions for a certain number of partners, including the eu, canada, and mexico a two-day fed meeting begins we'll talk to wilbur ross in the next hour. we haven't gotten to under armour yet. >> no. these are all -- again, everything in the balance you don't know where to go so sit on your hands i don't necessarily think it means sell but a lot of people are saying it's gotten too hard what you said is interesting about the month of may things are coming down buy something you like and ride

it out that's hard for people. >> indeed. the opening bell here. the s&p at the bottom of your screen that guide includes ongoing in north america. >> yeah. under armour is quizzical. i'm not sure what to do with it. i believe that the company is on a trajectory to get better but no one thought it was going to be done overnight if you take a look during the pivot, first, there was a bit of a term when we thought the inventory was out. then another leg down. then they discover that they can go personalization a lot of new technology and then the stock came back.

let's not expect overnight that under armour will turn around if it took that long for nike to turn around. >> indeed. speaking of nike big amazon partner amazon will add 2,000 jobs to the boston hub. >> saber is one that these travel companies need a huge amount of computing power and a huge amount of cloud amazon web services. no one is denying that they don't offer the best service azure picked up a lot of business google cloud they're spending a lot for google people hate the fact that google is spending. there's nothing they can do. they have to keep up with the jon joneses here they're adding a couple thousand jobs to boston d.c. remains a favorite for headquarters. >> everybody is so curious amazon has a lot of irons in the fire that stock was up again 6 or 7 points before two hours ago.

that meant nothing we're in a moment where people want to sell yesterday's term was one of the most, i would say absolutely frightening terms. because the -- >> reversal. >> wow it was like a huge program with tech anything tech. maybe in preparation of apple. someone put out a rumor that apple will do a $400 billion return now they do $300 billion will these people sell? i mean, honestly why is that the way you're going to pay it straight flush isn't as good as a royal. let's sell. >> okay. a big week for media, david. we will have to wait a few weeks for the ruling from judge leon. >> yeah. we'll be waiting awhile. june 12th is when we'll hear from him 4:00 p.m we've got, you know, we definitely at least know exactly when we're going to hear he wanted to do that, of course, before the current deal expires between the two and give them that opportunity

listen, if the government loses, as many people believe will be the case, frankly, at least a couple of people in the courtroom saying closing arguments were one of the stronger parts of the case that the government put on. nonetheless, many believe, again, we'll see that the government did not prove its case but they'll have an opportunity. if they choose to do so, to try to appeal. to go over those kinds of things you can try to keep it within an emergency stay they could appeal but the two companies will close the deal anyway we'll see. we can see what is going on with the stock prices, of course. we talked a lot last week about at&t's overall weakness because weakness not as much telecom with direct tv that had the affect of bringing down the overall value of the deal there's the larger issue of how long everything takes to get done these days. and the regulatory so many deals

finds themselves in. yesterday's announcement with t-mobile and sprint and how long it will be until they get an answer while we sit here and wait for monsanto and buyer to close their deal nxp and caqualcomm the problem is in china. there are a number of issues not being dealt with by the chinese right now. it's hard times. you have deals that just take forever to close and unexpected regulatory earnings. >> david, it's funny deutsche bank has a very rigorous note today. talking about at&t being priced at historic lows nine times six time earnings here is another typical situation. even as they said those positives, they cut their price target from 31 to 46 we have a lot of analysts who want to say, you know, stick by your guns. but the stocks have fallen so much that their guns are too high

so at&t does seem very inexpensive regardless of what happens in june. but, david, people don't care about whether a stock is cheap they just want out because they don't get enough resolution. >> yeah. and that's the hard part listen, in this case, at least, you know you're at the end game, jim. in others, as we watch t-mobile and sprint yesterday struggle in the stock market on the announcement of the deal, you won't know, to your point, the answer for a long period of time and despite what our strong promises from the companies and the promise, of course, of significant financial gain as a result of the deal, it's just too hard people move on they look at other potential opportunities. you know, that are available to them with a lot less price. >> what are the potential opportunities? cds? checking account atm? >> more than we did a few months ago, right

>> yeah. what do you got there? holes in the backyard. those are attractive now. >> you sound like you're -- it's a little bit of a different time than it is, jim. do you just miss me? not having me next to you is bumming you out? >> i miss the love you always show me, particularly when philly teams lose every single game yesterday and that idea we'res be ton. boston is boston that was a difficult game last night. just added to the whole negativity and if apple lose tonight and phillies lose, i'll let you come by on the red eye and i'll take the day off. [ laughter ] >> i'll be back there tomorrow morning. all right. i'm sure philly will win at least one game, jim. at least one. >> yeah. okay thank you. >> we did get some new research on the cell side today web bush adds facebook to best ideas saying that any fine that is eventually levied by

regulators is going to be immaterial to the long-term outlook. they say rivals have failed to keep pace with the network effect and its large user base then another initiation on spotify. morgan stanley with the same target of 190. it's the third 190 this week. >> i read that report and their all kind of yes, this is the stickiest they've got this terrific revenue stream. i like their reports and i think that if you want something that is knocked out. read the reports you'll recognize that spotify came too cheap because of the ipo. it's a terrific stock to own but it will be a beacon in an vertical situation where the banks are selling off. the health care stocks are selling off. the industrials are selling off. we're looking for some sort of clarification. one of the things i think you got to watch the stock comco

you need apple to be down in this quarter their supplier just says business is bad. if apple were down, i would feel better it's like the only stock going up that's a great confusion to me in tech. tech is bad. >> apple, intel, and disney are the only components in the green. how about the disney twitter tie up on the new front yesterday twitter 30 new live or streaming partnerships >> i thought that was -- i thought twitter was doing many things right i like twitter very much i think it's a good situation. another market twitter would have been up two or three. by the way, disney i mean, we used to think that the consumer product companies had consistency. how about the consistency of what they put out. >> oh, my gosh. >> and the movies they do and the amount of money they make. and, you know, they do not -- bob iger does not take the mone and put it in a chimney and burn it you would think from the stock

action how much can i burn? let me shovel that, you know, a giant bonfire of the dollars no he actually makes it. >> i love this, david. disney holds nine of the top ten openings ever. nine of the top ten. avengers took the entire domestic box office from the year from down three to up three. avengers infinity war. >> the franchises we've talked about it so often are nothing short of awesome and that's what they are the studios don't get the multipl multiples because. disney has proven it wrong given all the franchises and their ability to deliver. >> yeah, david, i'm glad you mentioned that this is the least oneoff product that is considered to be oneoff. you want one off

think about gillette razors. you have to get the key and the plastics there and millennial's say that's part of what that island of that size of antarctica plastic in the ocean is about one off are the new products of the consumer product stocks. not disney. >> when i think about disney, guys, of course, as you might expect i come back to, all right, they're still in the midst of w again, a deal that will go on and be subject to scrutiny and face competition from our parent company and how high they want to go on sky to compete with our parent company and all of those things, jim, can have, to our earlier conversation, the affect of clouding some of the clarity when it comes to value. >> totally right i mean, that's one of the reasons why the stock is where it is and not at 110 or 120. they have an over the top offering that the espn plus. we don't know how it's doing

every single stock, carl, you can mention that you say you like i can come up with a flaw. right now. mcdonalds. okay mcdonalds numbers -- people are saying, you know, but the actual new customers coming in -- >> food traffic. >> the traffic was weak. i come back and say they beat starbucks and dunkin' donuts you can say input costs will be bad. i can say, wait a second, the customer likes the plan. you can say, wait a second, gasoline is coming up. gasoline i sound like a philadelphian. i can come up with something negative to say about everything. >> amazon? >> the negative to amazon? >> yeah. >> do you think our president has not looked how the stock has done and is just lying in wait to try to trap buyers and rip their lungs out? he's just waiting to get everyone in the pool and then he is going to tweet away and destroy it! >> fair enough jim with the bear case lesson

this morning. >> yeah. >> dow is down 150 almost. and pfizer is leading at lower we'll get to bob hey, bob. >> good morning. weaker open, for sure. 3 to 1 declining it's may day so china is closed. almost all of europe is closed on top of that, if you look at the markets in the u.s., much more defensive tone. so health care you see energy retreating after oil is coming back down after yesterday. industrials are a little bit weaker semiis another sort of flattish to slightly down day speaking of industrials, we've getting boring companies i love boring companies. the guidance is good for these companies. cummins raised their guidance. e eaton raised all of it sounds good on paper, but what is happening is it's

not having a much of an impact on the stocks. some because it's roughly in line where the street already is some is because the stocks had big price run ups going into the start of this year not the last month but into the start of the year anticipation of the higher earnings peak earnings is a bit of a bogus argument if there's not global growth. take a look at eaton, for example, it's not peak earnings. unlike caterpillar their numbers are going up for the whole all four quarters have been going up. and into the full year they're at 520 now s&p analysts combined with today's numbers. here is the problem eaton's guidance is 520. in line with where the street is it's not enough to move the dial, at this point. companies had nice run ups eaton did start up and coming back a little bit. there's a lot of people complaining there's no reaction to earnings because it's earnings started about three weeks ago.

but, actually, there was a reaction if you look, we had a huge move up in the stock market the s&p went from 2500 to 2900 from october to january. that's a 16% gain. then problems when everybody started worrying about inflation. in february, we had a correction the s&p dropped 14 more th% at point. we have been moving sideways this consolidation phrase stuck in the 2600 2700 range that's because bears have got a more potent mix of commentary and arguments to make recently we did have big gains on tax cuts that came in the fourth quarter. now we have peak earnings. why no earnings rally? we had but they in addition to peak earnings a new combination of factors they're claiming global growth is a big and higher rates and inflation are a problem. put it together. peak earnings, higher rates, slower growth. now a potent stew of commentary that is a real head wind for the

stock market and that's what people are facing some people don't use the word stagflags. you get the idea and the debate is how much slower is global growth going to be my feeling is, and a lot of commentary i've seen, it's going to pick up again in the second and third quarter. i think that's going to be the theme. and i think the bears are pushing the case a little too much we saw very large numbers in april for etf flows. bonds had big inflows. prices are down. people are looking to pick up bonds a bit cheaper and a lot of bonds across the board commodities we saw inflows into gold and equities not a big story but modest inflows look at the inflows into the treasuries ets normally you don't see bond etfs picking up in the top ten. this time we had people were trying to short treasuries but a lot of people buying long-term treasury bonds is that a little surprise to you? aggregate bonds. agg is the biggest in the world.

investment rate people were buying into. there are people trying to find some kind of argument as to bonds moving to the downside just off the lows now, carl. got 155 in the dow back to you. >> thank you let's get to rick santelli in chicago good morning. >> good morning, carl. the investors have talks they better step up to the plate. we know there's one huge investor who is going to be stepping up to the plate less and less of course, that's the federal reserve begin their two-day meeting today. you know, anybody looks at futures markets, which close at 3 or 315 the cash market goes on beyond that so many people pair that you missed the best part yields started to push up yesterday late in the cash market cycle because we settle at 295, which was the old high from february. think about that i know that we tested 303.

we're still draining at the highs that were the highs made in february up until a week and a half ago all that slow down, the volatility, trade, all those investors bob is talking about, yes, they're present but think about what they're offsetting. because our rates are just solid. you could argue they're not moving up a lot. but we settled at 241. here we are with 2966. let's look at year to date of bund the spread at 240. it's been a little bit wider the journal finally had a nice article about this this is a huge development to pay attention to most of the big spreads, it's like close to three-decade winds. what is going to happen? how will it affect monetary policy also, maybe an offshoot of that same conversation with the bank of england at the end of next week look at the pound versus dollar. it's not zooming it's tanking look a year to date the pound to dollar back to the first part of

january. it's the dollar. look at the two-day dollar index. it traded up pretty well it hoovers around 230 something. it's up a fifth of a cent now for the year 92.12. you can see it on the year to date chart this is the time to watch the dollar index let's see where it closes. what kind of momentum, i have a feeling it willbuild up momentum this time think the shorts starting to perspire a bit back to you. >> good stuff. thank you for that rick santelli on the dollar and more when we come back, an exclusive with mark hurd today on the road ahead for his company as these clouds intensify. and wilbur ross on the white house trade agenda ahead of his trip, along with others, to china later in the week. and david will have the interview. the dow is down 145 to start this tuesday don't go away.

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facebook kicks off its developers conference what is that co founder is leaving the company. the departure comes as facebook is dealing with data misuse scandal and a facebook post he says i am taking time off to do things i enjoy outside of technology such as collecting air cooled porsches, working on cars and playing ultimate frisbee. facebook bought what's app for $19 billion. >> it does come at a curious time. they are starting to monetize what's app. put ads on it. this seems like a very principled decision. at the same time when someone comes out and says that facebook is going to weather the storm a

lot of it has to do with other drivers that facebook has including what's app which has not made any money. >> maybe that changes. we'll find out. we'lget l to stock trading with jim in a minute.

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we talked yesterday about the t mobile sprint deal. as he told us will wear the shirt and the shoes and the jacket and the rings. >> let's just say that would be a very untraditional way to approach it. i wonder if he will be able to represent himself. do you have counsel? he says i don't need counsel. oliver wendell ledger. here is a stock that was dramatically lower. it moved up huge because people anticipated a fantastic quarter. there were lines that weren't perfect and then people say i have had it.

this is a constant pattern. stock run that did not exceed already very heightened expectations and then gets killed. that is kind of what the whole earnings season has devolved to. >> what is on mad tonight? >> ag co. and colin fost. it is a regional bank in texas on fire. that is where loan growth is good and makes me feel like the end is not nigh. i'm going to go cry. >> we'll see you tonight. when we come back commerce secretary wilber ross when "squawk on the street" continues. g? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street". rick santelli live on the floor. let's take construction spending expecting up half one percent. minus 1.7. minus 1.7. that is the weakest number going back to a minus 1.8 read that we had in april of last year so basically down close to a year.

there is a revision. last month the 0.1 released for february ends up moving to 1%. still doesn't offset it and moving in momentum wrong direction. let's look at something more real time. april ism. manufacturing index expected to be over 58. we end up with 57.3. that follows 59.3. and of course this number is not powerful but not that weak of a number because we have been so lofty. the last time we were down at 57.3 read would take us to july of last year when we were 56.5. let's go through internals considering adp and big employment report this week the index moved down about three points from 57.3 to 54.2. prices paid on the other hand moved up but not as much but are getting ready to pop the veil of 80. they move from 78.1 to 79.3 and

new orders basically a push slight miss 61.9 last week and 62.2 this look and hovering 2.50. carl, back to you. >> a lot of information. rick santelli, good morning welcome back to "squawk on the street." sarahizen will be here at the moment. she will join us in a moment. favor is at the conference in beverly hills with a big interview ahead of us. dow is down about 140. road map begins with exemption and extension. white house giving key allies a break on steel and aluminum tariffs. wilber ross will join us to discuss. a look at what to expect from the fed and impact on ten year and markets around the globe and retailers report tapestry

tumbling as revisions. we'll look at what did spook investors. investors await latest numbers from apple tonight. the fed decision tomorrow. joining us black rock's manager and michael santoli. good to have you both. russ, any surprises in store for us tomorrow? >> i don't think so. i think the fed right now has set their path up for the year. the data has not been great but firm. inflation is going in the direction it expects. the fed is on target for at least two, possibly a third hike this year and comments tomorrow confirm that. >> and no possibility in your view that we get even directionally more clarity on whether this year is three or four >> i don't this go so at this point. the things that are still uncertain about this year, nothing is really clarified in

the last few months. you think about the wildcards there is potential for trade dispute. thankfully that has quieted down in recent days. we are not sure how the impact the fiscal stimulus will have. until we get clarity around those issues i wouldn't expect much more from the fed in terms of their future direction. >> those are the certainties that are hobbling even the good news. >> and the market kind of doesn't know exactly what to wish for or fear. it is kind of stuck at this moment of seeing in every direction where we have path of good news. maybe we get re-acceleration of the economy. if we do have the extended soft patch does it mean earnings investments are a little bit in question. there are always trade offs and offsets. i think the market is oddly comfortable in the zone because it's down at the lower end of

the range. spent a lot of time down here. a trader might say how many times does the market give you a chance to buy the debt on the other hand volatility index is very tame. credit markets are calm. markets are like we are back where we were at thanksgiving. we don't love the dollar going up. and so here we are kind of stuck. >> i just got back from this conference where the big topic of conversation was what the fed would do and whether the fed has bullets. i got a chance to talk to stanley fisher. we talked a lot about trade and how much of a risk that is for the global economy. i asked him whether the tactic that president trump is threatening tariffs and coming out and talking tough and what he thinks about some of these headlines. listen to what he said about that. >> i prefer people who give the impression that they are unique and mild. we don't have a president like

that. and the danger is that he will actually believe some of the things that he says. when he says trade wars are easy to win, well, maybe. but i don't believe that and i think the amount of damage you can do because you can go into the structure of trade and screw up every industry if you are really good at it. and i worry enormously about that. >> candid thoughts there on i think he would describe himself as a free trader. richard fisher was there, as well. clearly there is concern like i don't see it in the markets at all. is it priced in? this is not a zero percent probability right now. there is a delegation going into china and feels like expectation is that things will be worked out. >> i definitely agree with you

that the market is not pricing in the worst conceivable outcome here. they are not really embracing the idea that there is a tremendous amount that could go wrong although i think the markets have always seen trade issue as more risk than reward and kind of an unforced error to push hard on these issues. but i don't think the market is prepared for an all out hostility on this front. >> russ, this morning jim said some investors are potentially just hoping or waiting for the president to get lucky vis-a-vis china. if they come back from the delegation returning with even the hint of some significant pledges that will justify having been patient, right? >> i think you can alleviate the risk of a trade dispute but i think there is a bigger issue going on here which is that the economy is doing well, earnings are very strong but the head wind which we have not had very

often which is catch stocks down year to date is multiple compression. we haven't spoken about that but it is very important because even if you have a strong economy and if earnings deliver, if the market is in an unsustainbly high multiple this might be more disappointing year for u.s. equities than a lot of people thought. >> that is the crux of the morgan stanley note today where they say we are in a bear market in valuation. you have seen the valuation peak probably. the s&p's multiple peak the day the tax cut passed. this is all just kind of filling in what was expected to happen on the earnings side. the forward multiple peaked like six months before the overall market in 2007. i'm not saying we are in 2007 mode. it's not really the case that you see the absolute peak. if you going to get anything like 15% the rest of the year

earnings and prices can fight it out a long time and had multiple compression and you still end up okay. >> is there a big risk around friday's jobs report with attention and focus on the bond market and now on the dollar which is getting a big break out here >> i think that is a great point. yes there is a risk if you had an outicized number and you quickly started to price in a fourth hike this year i think it is a challenge not because it will send rates to this level but the combination of the fed tightening, bond yields going up and dollar strengthening means we are getting tighter financial market conditions. that supported the higher volatility regime and that combination is putting downward pressure on multiples. >> it has been fascinating to watch the compression between the 50 and 200 barely violating either on the top or bottom.

it has been very well behaved and seems to be getting compr s compressed to do something. it seems like 2014 not that the year analogies are perfect. 2013 is the huge melt up year. 2014 was like this. it was range bound into may. >> richard fisher called it meta volatility which is that it was so low it was bound to go up when the federal reserve started normalizing. i think the question is can it spiral >> right now it seems contained in a higher range but we will see. >> never say contained. >> i didn't say well contained. >> good to see you. when we come back, key allies getting exemption from president trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum. u.s. commerce secretary lbwier ross is with david next when "squawk on the street" comes right back. mr. elliot, what's your wifi password?

wifi? wifi's ordinary. basic. do i look basic?

nope! which is why i have xfinity xfi. it's super fast and you can control every device in the house. [ child offscreen ] hey! let's basement. and thanks to these xfi pods, the signal reaches down here, too. so sophie, i have an xfi password, and it's "daditude". simple. easy. awesome. xfinity. the future of awesome. welcome back. i'm joined by u.s. commerce secretary now wilbur ross. nice to see you. we had a chance to talk about it a year ago. you have been here with my colleagues. things were always changing. let's start with recent news. we have extended the exemption to the tariffs for the eu for a

month. why? >> because we are having discussions about trade tensions between eu and ourselves. >> what is productive talks mean what does that actually involve? >> it means we are getting into a whole lot of topics. there hasn't been serious discussion with the eu since the talks broke off shortly before the trump administration came in. so there are a lot of issues. we're hopeful that something good will come out of it. >> is it something that you can imagine continues so there is yet another extension and another? would that be typical or as time goes by should we look for some sort of marker that either you moved to close to agreement or not? >> i don't think we have any attention of protracted

extensions. that defeats the whole purpose. eu is around 15% of all steel we bring in. if we are going to impose it we have to do it pretty soon or else people will start gaming the system. >> south korea agreed to tariffs on aluminum and to a low quota 70% of their 2015 average shipment. i wouldn't call that an exemption. it fits in very well. >> you are leaving for china later today. >> who are you meeting with over there? >> we are meeting with the senior people. it will be secretary mnuchin, myself, ambassador. >> and the counter parts that you will be negotiating with are who? >> the same proportionate level

people. >> and the expectations, again, going into these talks when we report on them. do you go in hoping you will reach an agreement or is it part of just more talking that is going to continue between the two countries? >> there has been talking between the two countries for years and years and years. president trump is of the view it is now time for action. >> what does that mean >> our trade deficit is too big and too continuing, too chronic and too inspired by evil practices. >> are you optimistic? typically for conversations like the ones you are going to begin tomorrow the groundwork has been laid. has it been laid for you to potentially reach agreement? do you know whether the chinese have come to a certain place where there is not that much distance between the two

parties? >> you never know where you are. it is not my practice to negotiate things in the press room. are you optimistic >> i wouldn't be going all the way over there if i didn't think there was some hope. >> that doesn't sound optimistic. >> these talks have been going on for a very long time. the changed ingredient is we have the spending and we also have the 301 pending regarding intellecual property rights. >> the 232 tariff side and then the property side get linked. is it possible you could feel as though you have victory on one and not another but you are okay with that? stealing intellecual property or

forcing companies to share is different than dumping steel or aluminum. >> it is really all about behavior. steel and aluminum deal with today's world. we have to safe guard what is going on today and the future. next month the patent office will issue its 10 millionth patent. no country has ever remotely approached that total. that's our future is intelle intellectual property rights. >> yesterday we had ceos of t mobile and sprint. is it true that china is ahead of us it >> you never know who is ahead or behind until it is truly

perfected. nobody has 5 g totally perfected yet. i think the pitch that sprint and t mobile are making is an interesting one that their merger would propel verizon and at&t into more active pursuit of 5 g. whoever pursues it and does it we very much are in support of 5 g. we need it. we need it for defense purposes. we need it for commercial purposes. we really need to be the player in 5 g. >> that is one of the priorities for this administration? >> for sure. we can't neglect the important parts of technology. >> we talked to you many times, of course, over the last few months, wilbur. what comes up a lot in our conversation with you and with other experts related to china trade is tpp. i can't tell you how many people

we have on who say we never should have withdrawn from tpp. >> i couldn't disagree more with them. and if you roll back to november of 2016 whoever was elected president there would have been no tpp. hillary clinton came out against it several times. president trump clearly was against it. it was no will, no political will. has entertained the idea of potentially considering going into it if the conditions were right. what are the flaws and conditions we would need >> the president has always said that if the terms of the deal that matter. and one of the many flaws in the

tpp was the rules of origin. as you know that is a big topic of the nafta talks right now. it is even weaker provision in tpp than in the old nafta, nafta 1.0. that is just one of many examples. it was a flawed arrangement and it was not particularly a pro u.s. arrangement in our view. some parts were okay but a lot of the parts were not. when the president with drew he didn't withdraw from asia, not by a long shot. he withdraw from a flawed deal. >> you expect there is a way for us to reenter tpp? >> all depends on the turcherms right now our plate is a little bit full in the trade area so it is not something that will be done today or tomorrow. >> continued focus on trade deficits is something else many people discuss. some dismiss the focus on it and

the idea that it is a zero sum game. and they point to growing budget deficits as one of the key reasons that we added a trade deficit. do you buy that connection >> i don't. if you look at a chart about china's history, gdp was bumping along. suddenly they get admitted to the wto. it zooms. trade circles suddenly zoom. hours suddenly go -- that is not a function of trade deficit but a function of behavior. >> so when you go to china tonight and begin your meetings how many days are you scheduled to be there? >> it all depends on how we progress. we expect to be back over the weekend. >> conceivably could be a number of days. >> could be shorter if it is not satisfactory. >> we may have a bad day on the markets. >> we are not there to see -- >> do you go in knowing what

constitutes victory? >> we have a pretty good idea of what we need to come out with. anything that is discussed over there will come back to the president for approval because for sure even if they came in on most things we wanted for sure there will be some things that perhaps are not totally satisfactory. so this is going to come back to the president. this won't be suddenly in beijing a breath taking release everything is solved. >> understood. what would represent a setback in your opinion? >> i don't think anything much can be a setback. >> why not >> because if we don't make a negotiated settlement we will pursue the 232s and impose them. we'll pursue the 301 and impose it. so one way or another we are going to deal with this recurring problem on trade. >> that will require to a certain extent some sacrifice on

the part of americans whether it is farmers who are no longer going to be able to sell soybeans or any number of other areas of american industry that conceivably will find themselves at the mercy of the back and forth here and what the chinese may decide to respond in kind, right? >> sure. chinese have announced what their response would be. the european union has announced what its response will be. but as you know the president has a couple of ideas that i think are quite true. number one, we are the ones in the deficit position. that means they have more to lose at the end of the day than we do. now, we are not going to be trying to commit suicide here. we don't want to have them die and us die. it's a fact they have more risk than we do. second, when they raise tariffs say on our soybeans, the probabilities are they will raise their own costs.

they don't buy anything from us at a premium price just to be nice to the u.s. that means if we are not selling it to them they are going to have to get someone else who is not going to charge them as low a price. particularly right now brazil supplies a majority of the soybeans to china. we supply around 30%. for brazil to replace all of our soybeans they would have to export 60% more to china. guess what, if they had 60% more at the right price they would have sold it to them already. real world they would have to divert product from some other market to sell it to china. probably they would want a further premium for doing that for disrupting historic customer relations. and if they did then the people in that other country still need soybeans and we could sell them.

i think it is far more complicated than i will poke you, you poke me. trade is an infinitely complex thing. doesn't lend itself to simple conclusion. >> we wish you luck in your on coming trip and your negotiations and appreciate your taking some time. wilbur ross, u.s. commerce secretary. >> thanks to you. when we come back ceo joining us. defense stocks in steel aren't taking a hit today and dow settling in with autbo a 200 point loss since the open. more "squawk on the street" back after this.

apple is getting ready to report earnings tonight. dominic chu taking a look at etfs with most exposure to the stock. >> according to retail brokerage td ameritrade there are hot and cold spots. apple plays into the story. during the month of april the four most heavily bought ones were perhaps no surprise broad

index related. you have s&p 500, spy, power shares qqq, dow industrials and vanguard s&p 500 all of those have apple as waiting. on the flip side the silver i-shares trust, xlu, u.s. oil fund and ticker iwm. on the stock side things get interesting. most heavily bought jp morgan chase in the month of april, citi group, alibaba and spotify. heavy sales are some of the hot spot names. apple, intel, twitter, netflix. those are four most sold stocks by td ameritrade clients. apple stock does have a heavyweight in these etfs. you have i-shares u.s. tech fund

and xlk. fidelity tech fund all of them have a huge weighting in apple. after the bell earnings reaction for these etfs and others could have big ripple effects. back over to you. >> we will do so. watch it later. apple one of the few winners in the dow. let's send it over to sue herera. >> good morning everyone. here is what is happening at this hour. president trump says its disgraceful the questions the special counsel investigating wants to ask him were leaked to news media. "new york times" published nearly four dozen questions given to trump's attorneys. abandoned high rise building caught fire and collapsed today sending chunks of fiery debris crashing into neighboring buildings. at least one person was killed

and could be more casualties. >> thousands of greeks in a may day demonstration. museums were closed and public transport on reduced schedule because of the labor day protests. for the second day in a row dust storms causing train reaction traffic accidents in parts of eastern nebraska. these pictures were taken monday. a blanket of dust lasting four hours rolled across the region causing multiple crashes. you are up to date. that's the news update. i will send it back to you. see you next hour. >> thanks. when we come back ceo of stifel is with us. take a look at shares of underarmer. the stock is lower by about 3.5%. got a boost from international markets. stock is up nearly 50% from the

lows. people are worried about the margins, the lack of growth in north amica erand in foot wear. more "squawk on the street" right after this. ♪ feel that? that's the beat of global markets, the rhythm of the world. but to us, it's the pace of tomorrow. with ingenuity, technologies, and markets expertise we create the possible. and when you do that,

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♪ welcome back to "squawk on the street." live at post nine from the new york stock exchange. david is with us. about an hour into trading and we are looking at a pretty broad sell off. the dow is down 231 points. apple is actually gaining ahead of earnings report after the close. nasdaq is positive because technology is a leader, one of the only green groups in the s&p 500. energy industrials and materials bring up the rear in the s&p. >> it is day one of two of the federal reserve monetary policy meeting. senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with exclusive results ahead of the

announcement tomorrow. >> tomorrow they expect 89% of our respondents expect no change in interest rates. when we do this again in june 86% say they will be hiking rates for a total of three. this number is a median number. it averages to 3.5 perfecting at about half of the 37 respondents think there will be four rate hikes in total and that would be three more from here. two in 2019 with a debate about whether or not there is three. there is concern that rates are on the rise. watch this. each one of these reflects the survey results for the s&p average at the end of the year. you can see beginning in january 2017 it went up and up and up and up. now the last two times it's come down. same thing for 2019, as well. a little more pessimism and less bullishness when it comes to stocksism we can show you that

65% are not concerned about the sell off. ta say it is a healthy part of the cycle that were past the worth while. thursday it is a red flag and expect more selloffs. you can see challenges that stocks face directly from the u.s. take a look at the outlook for the ten year yield around just under three percent. up to 3.25 is the average forecast. up to 3.5 by the end of 2019. pretty low for a full cycle but ultimately higher than it has been especially down below two percent not that long ago. it is no coincidence that a market correction and jump in volatility is happening as the fed gets deeper into tightening. it happens just about every time. we will see a big debate about whether or not the tax cuts will offset the effect of higher interest rates in this economy. >> very interesting. steve, thank you. for more on the markets and some expectations let's bring in

ceo of stifel. welcome. good to have you. double digit growth in investment banking fees, equity under writing. talk about the kind of environment you guys are seeing at stifel right now. >> the environment is very strong. you are seeing record. yesterday was a record announced. environment is very strong. it's bullish for us very much so. and you are looking at growth. i'm listening to market schizophrenia. we will see big growth in the last half of this year both globally and in the united states. >> when you say big growth what are you talking about? in terms of your own business? >> gdp. first of all, rising tide braises all ships especially in the capital markets business like we are. the cbo is predicting almost

3.5% growth in gdp. we haven't seen that since the financial crisis. the economic growth is going to be there. the markets are struggling with balancing higher interest rates against earnings. but overall may 1, sell in may and go away. you will see a little bit of that. it sets up for a nice trade to the end of the year. we think the s&p 500 will be 2,800 by the end of the year. >> that would be a little boost from here. what about steve's point that there are rising expectations for higher interest rates and higher yields which can dampen profitability and economic growth >> well, first of all, you have the tax cuts that are stimulus. you have the budget bill that will add 50 points to gdp. the fed needs to take away a

little bit of punch bowl. the fed, this is to be expected. i think that it is very healthy to have a fed that is raising rates and to an economy that is growing their inflation targets basically met now. so the market is going to struggle a little bit with rising rates. overall earnings will be increasing, too. >> we don't have a lot of history on fiscal stimulus that is financed by deficits in an economy running near full capacity. i wonder if you think that is going to end up being years from now considered a mistake as some argue. >> well, you know, look, i think that when you put this kind of stimulus in an economy that is at four percent unemployment you do run that risk for sure. that's why the fed is going to do what they are doing. if the fiscal stimulus is taking

over and the feds are going to tighten rates. considering where we come from which is really a deflationary concern, this is i think positive. so i can see some down side risk for sure. overall i think people are under estimating the kind of growth that we are going to see global growth, u.s. at 3.5%. we are lagging global growth. i think it's bullish for the world economy. >> so you don't buy the idea that earnings may be peaking out because of rising input costs and wage pressures and inflation which companies are starting to talk about >> i think that you certainly always can look at the boogieman of everything that can go wrong. i think that earnings are going to increase.

the question is will p.e. contract more than earnings increase. that is what the market is worried about. earnings are also going to be going up. net net i think the market is higher at the end of the year than it is now. although sell in may ask go away i think there is a chance for a correction here. that is a buying opportunity. >> ron, quick view on m&a. give us what is in the pipeline in terms of industries. >> it's broad based. you are seeing across all industries in health care and see it in telecommunications. financials are going to be strong. you are seeing the regulatory relief especially for regional banks that can go above 50 billion without having all the regulatory costs with the stress tests. you take all of this and you put the confidence that i think that the market has with the tax cuts

and some of the growth and it is strong. that is a barometer to competence. so that is good for us. when you take it back to a firm like ours we are going to do well in an environment where there is this kind of capital raising and this kind of just general growth. markets are going to jump around here a little bit. again, i think that we should look at some good things compared to where we came. >> you have made your point. thank you for coming on to talk about earnings. >> when we come back the fomc meeting is getting underway. robert helder will join rick santelli. look at divisions dragging on the earnings and stocks down. dow down 244 close to session

lows. we are back in a mine.ut

it's make or break time for apple. find out what to expect. trading nation. much more "squawk on the street" right after this.

let's get to the cme group in chicago. rick santelli. >> i would like to welcome former fed governor robert heller. first day of a two-day fed meeting. >> good morning. >> let's get the formalities out of the way. what are your thoughts about the meeting tomorrow that started today with regard to any possible policy changes? >> no changes at the present time but i think they will have a lot of issues to discuss as far as the future is concerned reducing balance sheet and further increases in the rates.

>> now, let's get to the heart of this. no matter what anybody thinks of this president, i am just appalled at how few of his nominees in so many areas the senate is confirming. granted that as a manager of his team he likes to fire people or people like to leave. that's his prerogative. when it comes to the federal reserve in particular, we have a real vacancy issue. why don't you explain? >> there is supposed to be seven governors on the federal reserve board. at the present time we have only three, chairman powell and hold over from the obama administration. and his term has already expired, his governor's term expired in january so he is just serving until his successor is nominated and confirmed. the senate isn't acting on that.

>> we have a good friend, quality people. what is holding up the process why isn't this getting done and does the senate not care that jay powell, new fed chairman doesn't have a full roster to do the work he has to do and believe me the fed has a lot of work to do. >> absolutely. they should have seven governors sitting there. there is a lot of committee work to be done. you have to have -- in the old days you have to have four people there in order to have a quorum. these days there are only three governors. they changed the rules after 9/11. so you need the full team on the field. >> let's get down to two questions that have to be asked. i'm sorry, first thing i think of is why is the senate acting this way do you have thoughts is it just that they don't want to put a whole team?

are they afraid the president will succeed are they afraid his team members will make the process better what is the issue? >> first of all, all the democrats have been opposed to opposed to mr. qualls, for instance, and mr. goodfriend, also wait nth wings. so the vote in the committee was 13-12 in his favor then you have a couple of republicans, mr. paul, who says maybe i won't vote for him either mr. mccain, he is sick so you don't have a majority anymore. it's the politics of obstruction that is really holding up all these nominees. >> it is terrible. it's not a democratic or republican issue, as you just pointed out. there's inertia from the president's own team why don't they indirectly talk

to the senate like clint eastwood did, with the invisible chair? like i need some help. couldn't he do that? >> it would be some novel but it's about time to do it you really need the staff there to do it. >> jay powell seems to me a very pragmatic, intelligent man i think he should. he should address the issue head on robert heller, thank you, as always sara, back to you. >> that would be something, rick thank you very much. we are getting breaking auto sales numbers from toyota right now. let's get straight to phil lebeau with those. phil >> slightly better than expected, decline of 4.7%. what we're seeing from toyota, ford, fiat chrysler are the numbers are, generally speaking, a little bit better or on target with what the expectation was. at the end of the day, when they tally all of this, minus general motors, most believe we'll see a sales rate of between 16.9 and

17.1 million remember, if it falls under 17 million as a sales rate, that would be the first time this year, first month this year we saw sales drop between 17. back to you. >> we'll stay tuned for that tally later on in the day. phil, thank you. let's send it over to jon fortt with what's coming up on "squawk alley. >> there are questions about cloud momentum after these latest earnings reports, particularly when it comes to oracle we'll dig in when "squawk alley" starts in a few. mr. elliot, what's your wifi password?

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm dominic chu. metals and materials stocks, shares down more than 1% in trading, broad range of names pushing the sector down, dowdupont, nucor, freeport freeport-mcmoran and international paper down 2% on pace for its worst day in a month, guys. we'll send it back down to you, sara. >> some ugly action there. thank you, dom shares of tapestry, formerly known as coach, decline in

same-store sales for kate spade division courtney reagan joins us. >> comp sales there did fall short of expectations, as you point out. the coach brand did beat but just barely. total tapestry business, earnings beat expectations thanks to a more favorable tax rate as gross margins disappointed premium brands parent company upped its forecast stewart weitzman is the smallest of the group disappointed there, too. taking it all together, shares of tapestry lower by about 14%, on pace for the worst day since at least august 2017 rbc analyst brian tunic says the european conglomer ate set the bar high for tapestry so results

didn't quite get there that's part of the reason for the sell-off analysts think this could be a buying opportunity, saying in general the brand transformation has been pretty impressive and the consistent trends in north america, especially for coach, the biggest brand, those are encouraging. back over to you guys. >> yeah. tough take, too. thank you very much, court we'll be bacwik th oracle ceo mark hurd. as a control enthusiast,

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