i'm dominic chu, it's 5:00 a.m. and here are your five at 5:00 breaking buffet news berkshire hathaway buying an additional 75 million shares of apple in the first quarter warren buffett talking about that purchase to cnbc. we have more on that straight ahead. a u.s. trade delegation is calling for china to slash its trade gap with america as talks wrap up in bayieijing nike ceo mark parker calling an all-hands meeting to apologize for corporate culture. and twitter urging users to

change passwords after discovering a glitch. and evacuations are under way in hawaii as that state's most active volcano roars to life "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm courtney reagan. brian sullivan is on assignment today. may the fourth be with you dow jones industrial average if it were to open at this point would open higher by 9 points or so but watching shares of apple this morning we're doing so because warren buffett told becky quick that berkshire hathaway bought a whopping 75 million shares of the tech giant in the first quarter. here's what buffett said to becky last night

>> it is an unbelievable company. if you look at apple, i think it earns almost twice as much as the second most profitable company in the united states it's a wide, wide gap. it's an amazing business here's a company that's -- whatever the earnings are, 60 billion or whatever, you can put all their products on a dining room table >> they already own 165 million shares of it before. though were a huge shareholder of apple to tack on another 75 million on top of that is -- first of all, i guess if you are an investor with a background and a history like warren buffett, you see trends, you see large scale purchases -- the size of the apple stake that berkshire has makes it one of these buffett picks. he's got himself, his two

lieutenants with him, they pick them together. when you talk about multibillion dollar positions, buffett himself signs off on these >> i love he talks at the end of the sound bite about how you can put the products on the table. he likes products he can understand, he can see >> coca-cola, american express >> even though we know he doesn't have the iphone, he still uses the flip phone. the idea is the same >> the idea that there are -- what's the best way to put this without being snippy about it. apple is a stock that draws out a very large contingent of bulls and bears. people out there believe apple is at its peak others say apple is the best company in all of business, and it has so much more to go.

looking forward to hearing more about what warren would say about this and more when becky quick joins us live in the next half hour. we're getting headlines out of those u.s. trade talks in china. eunice yoon has the details. not a lot of detailed detail, but some broader strokes what can you tell us about how the meetings are going >> i think we're in an unusual situation where we're actually getting more information from the chinese side than from the americans. i was just on the phone communicating with the u.s. embassy who said that secretary mnuchin and his team will not be holding a press conference, which many reporters had been anticipating and as of now we still don't have any press statement from them. according to the u.s. embassy they are now on their way back to washington.

on the chinese side, we don't have a whole lot more information. the state media has been describing these talks as candid, efficient and constructive they said they covered a wide range of issues, including expanding u.s. exports to china as well as intellectual property state media said the two sides reached a consensus on some issues, such as the need to maintain close communications and also to set up a mechanism to keep talking, but they were far apart on other issues there was not a lot of detail on there. based on some stories coming out in the state press, it could possibly be about the differences over forced technology transfers for example, the china daily today, one of the state papers ran an editorial which said force td technology transfer charges are baseless and the idea behind it is that made in china 2025, beijing's

industrial policy follows market principles and does not force technology transfers and they argue, at least the chinese argue that foreign companies generally have been offering up their technology and transferring it to other companies that are local in order to get access to the market and to make big profits the difference, though, the argument of the american companies has been whether or not this technology transfer is forced that's a huge difference between the two sides. i was messaging a couple people and asking what does all of this mean, it depends on whether you're a half glass empty or full person. if you're glass half empty, no concrete steps, this won't alleviate the trade tensions if you're more optimistic you would say at least the two sides are still talking. perhaps that will help overt a trade war. >> thank you very much, eunice i know you will keep us lonnest

with tho with -- honest with those headlines coming out of china. joining us now is craig demuke from vining sparks ibg. not sure if you could hear all of that report, eunice detailed that it seems like we're getting a bit more information from the chinese side than we are here in the u.s. how important is the outcome of this to u.s. investors if we don't, in fact, end up with a lot more detail when this day two ends >> good morning. you know, i don't think that any of the outlook or the outcome when all of these negotiations are finalized i think is very important. we're seeing that from the market reaction in the first half of this year already. i think the outcome to these first two days of negotiations is less material the markets know and investors know these are opening

discussions in the process there will be more discussions my expectation is they're trying to feel each other out and see what their initial offers or initial bargaining points would be i'm not looking for too much out of the initial meetings. >> craig, it's dominic here. this whole process now is the beginning of a broader two-step between the two countries. there are reports out there that they'll target surplus and deficit levels is that something that could work don't line effectively or something that is a broad stroke conversation starter >> yeah. my assumption is that it's a conversation starter it's bad policy to target an actual trade surplus or deficit. i think -- from my position, which is a different position than the administration, i would reframe this from being about targeting a trade deficit or trade balance, framing it as

china is a major player in the global economy, as the economy has grown, as demand from your consumer has become more important, it's important for us to have a fair playing field on trade issues targeting a trade deficit specifically, initially going in they said they wanted to reduce the deficit by 200 billion that's a bad -- it's a great goal, but to say we'll target the trade balance specifically is bad policy. >> if we can turn to jobs today, it is a jobs friday. what do you anticipate will happen today it seems sometimes the market cares what the inflation number is, other times the market doesn't. sometimes the market changes its mind in the middle of the day in terms of what is important to investors. do you have a forecast for the number what will be the investor reaction there after >> payrolls, we expect a rebound

from the weakness we saw in march. job market has been stronger than what was expected coming into the year. expectation is that it will be over 200,000 the broad consensus is 190,000 payroll. unemployment rate we expect to tick down to 4%. that's because you have strong job creation and it looks like we'll have more people -- or job creation outpace the entrance to the labor force. the most important thing, this is what i think is important for investors, the average hourly earnings number is driving the market reaction. if you look at the last 6 reports, last 16 jobs reports, if the jobs number beat expectations, you can't predict what the market reaction will be there's not been a strong correlation with stocks or bonds. however, if you look at the average hourly earnings number, it's been weaker than expected nine times all nine times we saw stocks

positive on the day. the reason that's important, when earnings are weaker, inflation pressures are not as high the fed can be slower, more patient. in contrast, three times when the earnings number was stronger than expected, and two of those three times including in early february, we saw stocks fall so that really is what the big news will be it's what investors will focus on this morning, how strong is the earnings data. >> got it. that gives us a lot to focus on and understand the historical trends at least recently thank you for joining us today >> thank you in corporate news, flipkart's board has reportedly agreed to sell a stake to walmart for $15 billion. as part of the deal softbank will sell 20% of its stake in india's largest e-commerce firm.

the deal is expected to close in the next ten days. if this is true, this will be a very big deal for walmart. if it's 15 billion, that's five times of what they paid for jet.com. >> talking about the whole battle with amazon and who would get this at least it looks like walmart wins out on that one. xerox says its current board and management team including ceo jeff jacobson they're staying put. earlier this week xerox struck a deal to have jacobson ousted as part of that agreement, icahn and deeson would end litigation and as of midnight that agreement had expired, meaning the ceo stays.

shares of xerox are moving higher in pretrade. nike's ceo mark parker is reportedly saying sorry. con tetessa has the details. >> nike has had these big changes in the last few weeks, perhaps an effort to overhauling corporate culture. mark parker called this rare all-staff meeting yesterday where he apologized allowing a toxic culture that excluded staff and failed to address workplace issues he reportedly told employees he's personally committed to making nike a place where everyone can thrive in an environment of respect, empathy and equal opportunity. his apology comes weeks after nike launched an internal investigation into misconduct at the company. they're not revealing details about that in that time several high level staffers have left shares of nike have held steady

since the company nifirst acknowledged issues with corporate culture. nike is slightly lower in premarket trade. they appointed two women to senior leadership roles and last month the new hr chief said we're not getting traction on promoting women. so less than 30% of women are vice presidents. fewer than 16% are minority vice presidents we'll see if that culture in nike changes >> culture is a big thing to shift. >> and it's not easy it takes a long time you can't flip a switch and have it happen. what's interesting is all of this is happening at a time when nike and adidas are having such momentum behind them they are improving businesses, righting the wrongs in terms of sales trends everything is going right now all of this is happening you wonder if the execution is hard to get. >> if mark parker is intend on

changing the company culture t can be done. but it doesn't happen just through leadership t happens through changing the makeup of the people who make up that culture. >> definitely. as you pointed out shares have not moved much on this because of the underlying business seems to be strong something to watch from both of those angles your big individual stock stories outside of nike include hsbc, europe's biggest bank reported an unexpected drop in first quarter net profits missing analysts forecasts operating costs well outpaced sales growth, this was due to investments in the retail banking franchise in the uk and china. hsbc is announcing a $2 billin2 stock buyback program. shares of fluor are tumbling after a surprise first quarter loss the firm blames continued challenges on a gas-fired power project. fluor is cutting its earnings

gips f guidance for the year. shares down 13% right now. weight watchers reporting better-than-expected first quarter results. it added 1 million new subscribers to its programs. the company is also raising its full-year earnings and revenue outlook. those shares are up by 7%. we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. listen up twitter users, the company is out with a very big warning. we'll explain why the social media giant says your password may be in jeopardy. and may the fourth be with you. it's "star wars" day and lucas film is going all in how it's giving back in the name of the force

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with just the sound of your voice, xfinity x1 gives you a front row seat to the billboard music awards, including throwback clips from some of your favorite artists. the 2018 billboard music awards, sunday, may 20th. only on nbc. twitter is urging users to change their password after discovering a glitch arjun kharpal joins us now with the latest good morning >> let's run down about how this all works. when you sign up to twitter, you set a password that password is stored in a safe way, it's encrypted, a bunch of muddled up numbers and letters that no one else can see, this bug has uncovered hoed and laid out the password in an internal log at twitter. twitter says they found the issue themselves

there's been no misuse of that data and they said this is not a hack or a breach of security systems, but they have warned users to change their password to twitter and other services if you use the same password on twitter and many other services, if someone says your password to one of those services, it could enable them to enter other platforms. this is at a time around increasing sensitivity around data and privacy particularly after the cambridge analytica scandal. there's a lot of issues in terms of the regulatory front. there's new regulations called the gdpr, this will put more onus on companies to be responsible with data. one provision in that is companies must report any issues around 7 2 hours around data data will be front and center. it will be interesting to see how this plays out with regulators in terms of

regulation around data protection back to you. >> arjun kharpal, thank you very much for that update if there was ever a reason to use dual factor authentication -- >> i know it you've betchlknow you've been educating me. hawaii is on high alert as a volcano roars to life. more on that straight ahead. and we're counting down to the jobs report, the key number you need to watch.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are keeping a close eye on apple. warren buffett made oanother additional bet on the company. shares are up by a half percent in premarket trade. it's that time of year again when thousands of investors pour into omaha for the berkshire hathaway annual meeting, they're hoping to pick up some wisdom from warren buffett. the veteran investor has often spoke about the importance of owning and learning from mistakes on a recent trip through his past he told becky quick about some of his. >> what did you think of washington >> well, i -- it wasn't so much what i thought of washington i hated leaving omaha.

>> reporter: in his teen years buffett lived here after his father was elected to congress >> now, there's the marland. this is west chester >> this is where he started to form his thoughts about business and life, but not before making a few mistakes >> i was rebellious at first in school for about a year. i made a real pain of myself then i calmed down after a while. >> reporter: buffett says his adjustment to d.c. was rocky, and he often acted out >> that's the sears there. >> reporter: even shoplifting at the old downtown sears >> i wasn't doing it for any reason except rebelling, that ran out after a while. >> reporter: our first stop was his boyhood home >> that lawn seemed so big when i was mowing or digging weeds. now it's nothing >> washington is where buffett developed his work ethic and his financial flair.

by the time he graduated high school in 1947 he saved $10,000. >> you can imagine in in 1947. >> investors have been trying to learn from buffett ever since. watch the cnbc documentary tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time it looks so interesting. i cannot wait to see more about it i wanted a longer clip actually. >> he is probably -- he's the most iconic investor of modern times inamerica. >> definitely. >> to learn that much more about him. >> i learned all his isms and his quotes he's somebody we all admire here in the building. let's move on from warren buffett and get a check on the top headlines outside of the world of business. let's turn to frances rivera >> there are more hints from the trump administration that three americans detained in north korea could soon be released president trump promising very good announcements are coming

soon and his new attorney, rudy july giuliani announcing on fox news they have already been released. arizona teachers will return to classrooms ending a six-day walkout. legislators pulled an all-nighter to obtain a 20% raise for teachers by 2020 teachers didn't get anything they wanted but agreed to end the strike. and several people are lucky to be alive after a case of bad timing at a railroad crossing. a train barrelled into a car on the tracks just before the impact two cars had a head-on collision as they crossed the intersection one person was taken to the hospital and is expected to recover. back to you. >> happy friday to you thank i for all of that. updating us on that. a big burger beat.

shares of shake shack are soaring this morning, how they're crushing wall street estimates. i'm part of it. >> so am i. and south korea's latest social media sensation was inspired by north korean and south korean leaders details whene wreturn ♪ with expedia you could book a flight, hotel, car and activity all in one place. ♪ - anncr: as you grow older, -your brain naturally begins to change which may cause trouble with recall. - learning from him is great... when i can keep up! - anncr: thankfully, prevagen helps your brain and improves memory.

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breaking news, warren buffett just made a big bet on a

company you know i guarantee you know the details. that's straight ahead. countdown to jobs. wall street in a holding pattern as investors await the april payrolls report. hawaii is on high alert. evacuations ordered as a volcano roars to life. full details straight ahead. it's friday, may 4, 2018, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc ♪ >> welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm courtney reagan. >> i'm dominic chu may the fourth, national "star wars" day. may the fourth be with you, get it let's check the early market action there's a stable open. if you look at what's happening, the dow would open up down by 18 points the s&p off by a single point.

the nasdaq flat. we are watching shares of apple. warren buffett told cnbc's becky quick that berkshire hathaway bought another whopping 75 million share position in the tech giant in the first quarter. here's what buffet said to becky last night >> i like what i saw there, too. it is an unbelievable company. if you look at apple, i think it earns almost twice as much as the second most profitable company in the united states it's a wide, wide gap. it's an amazing business here's a company that's -- whatever the earnings are, 60 billion or whatever, you can put all their products on a dining room table >> they already had another 165 million shares before that big purchase joining us now to break it down is david nelson from bell point

asset management warren buffett already had a vote of confidence in this company. how much bigger -- 75 million more shares, is he making the right call here? >> i'm not sure. i looked at apple. i looked at the quarter. there was a lot of concern with apple. investors were outraged when the results came in, but they missed the number from where they were in february. they were supposed to do 68 billion in february, that was ratcheted back to 61 they hit that number 295 was supposed to be the number in february that came in at 273. apple is a wonderful company one thing is clear, this is an iphone story right now the replacement cycle is lenn lengthening. that has ramifications for the food chain down the road, those companies that supply this company. >> even if the iphone cycle is

slowing or steadying, we all use their products every day the services revenue was strong, up 31% that's a key point apple will want to focus on going forward >> i think the multiple is where it should be it's still a very cyclical business actually i'm kind of sorry they're giving back all that money to investors they're giving back the bulk of it when you back out the debt, 122 billion, they're giving back most of the cash i would like to see them reinvest that money, maybe some m&a. we have to move on from here it won't be iphones forever. there's probably amazon and other competitors moving from beyond that. >> how important is apple to the broader market is it a bellwether do we look at it as being indicative of the rest of the market >> it's the largest company in the s&p 500. for me to say it's not important would be silly it's a very important company for the market

but i think we have some issues we're trying to deal with. all this stuff is easy when you look in the rearview mirror. if i go back to november, that monster run that we had from november up through january, likely pulled forward some return for 2018. earnings are up 25%. estimate revisions continue to move higher. but when i look at valuation levels, you know, we probably had some levels in january that, you know, have given investors pause at different points in time over the last 25 years. i don't care if you use forward pe, enterprise value to ebita. we hit those levels. stocks are telling us we need something more we need another catalyst to get us out of this market purgatory. >> we talked earlier in the show about china, what's going on with the negotiates over trade whether there's movement or not. that will be determined down the road if you're an investor, what should you do with your

portfolio to benefit from a trade war or hedge against something like that happening? >> that's tough to game. this will last a long time if people are looking at these discussions in china thinking this will be resolved soon, they're mistaken this will drag on for years. right now the u.s. delegation is meeting in beijing discussing intellectual property. for me, that's the big thing that's what we have to focus on. this is the thefrt of ot of our and it is a national security concern. trade is a transfer of wealth. if that's true, we've been doing it to the tune of trillions for decades. what president xi and the entire chinese delegation counted on foreye for years is that the united states would defend the status quo and we wouldn't take the risk we're at a point where we have to >> it's jobs friday. we have known for a long time

now that jobs numbers are important. hourly averages have reared up since the print in february. what do we have to see from this jobs report from an average hourly standpoint to shake the markets or give the bulls a chance to have an upside run >> i hope we hit the metrics on the head i don't want to see a soft number or a hot number investors can take these outside moves and turn them into something negative i don't want to do that on a friday going into the weekend. >> speaking of that, these changes we've seen midday, it's got to be frustrating. >> it is the news cycle is. >> you have a good earnings print, then boom the stock falls midway through the day when you thought you were in the money in the morning, you're not in the afternoon what stocks are you looking at in the medium term to get past

these bumps? >> financials is still my largest overweight you have a cyclical tailwind, rising rates, net interest moving higher, and evaluations are not compelling you're trading below market multiples. that's a place for investors to look number two right now, i'm not there, i will be there next week, is defense it's been creamed in the last couple of weeks, down 15% on average. they're not just making war machines these companies are in cyberwarfare lockheed martin is actually working on a fusion reactor they expect to plug into the electric grid in the next ten years >> yesterday boeing was one of the biggest drivers off the rally off the bottom david nelson, thank you very much here are some big individual stocks that could be on the move today. shake shack's first quarter results beat forecast.

same-store sales rose 2% the burger chain is raising its full-year guidance and expects to open 35 new locations in the u.s. and 18 ber nationally cbs is reporting better than expected first quarter earnings and revenue. there was higher revenue from affiliate and subscription fees. cbs executives declined comment about the ongoing merger talks with viacom. activision blizzard's first quarter results easily beat forecasts. while the company did not put out major new titles, it benefitted from in-game spending for games like call of duty and candy crush sack ga. activision blizzard shares are down 1.2% in the early hour. time for the top trending stories. if you look at what's going on, evacuations are under way in hawaii's big island as a volcano begins to erupt. you are looking at images from

mount kilauea, you can see lava moving, smoke and ashes shoot nothing the sky. kilauea is hawaii's most active volcano. i guess i'm a west coast guy, i grew up vacations in hawaii with my family. volcanos are part of the equation out there it's always stunning from a natural disaster standpoint to look at just how forceful some of this is >> this is a pretty active volcano, correct we've seen this in the last several years have activity that sparked other evacuations. >> just the hawaiian islands in general. even if they're not fully going like kilauea, there's always a threat of something happening. >> beautiful but dangerous for the first time in 75 years no one will be awarded a nobel prize for literature this comes as the swedish academy, the group that awards

nobel prizes, deals with the fallout of a sexual and financial scandal. the swedish academy will name two prize winners next year. no area seems to be immune from some of these allegations of business, art, literature. >> serious story to watch. there's also a new social media sensation on the korean peninsula. the world watched a historic handshake between the leaders of north korea and south korea last friday since then people in south korea are trying to recreate this moment sometimes even using props these videos, these pictures, they're going viral. it's from a movie set, it's showing the border area. but of course everyone trying to get in on this i love some of these photos. it's a way to show maybe things are progressing. >> that photo was astonishing. to wake up to that, see that -- >> not in my lifetime.

>> i don't think most of our lifeti lifetimes. it's interesting. may the fourth be with you today is "star wars" day and in honor, the lucas film charity "star wars" force for change is launching the chewbacca challenge. the group is asking people to upload their best chewbacca impressions to social media. they will donate a dollar to unicef for every #roarforchange. that was one of my nicknames >> no. >> it was dominic chu chewbacca. >> remember the woman with the chewbacca mask >> yes >> can she reenter -- or can she enter this challenge that was a joy to watch someone laugh so purely like that. >> absolutely. i can't do the chewbacca roar. >> i won't try. still ahead, warren buffett

faithful flocking to omaha today. we'll bring you a front row seat coming up next change of scener? the kayak price forecast tool tells you whether to wait or book your flight now. so you can be confident you're getting the best price. giddyup! kayak. search one and done.

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shares are higher by a half percent at this point. >> guess who is in omaha, it is becky quick. she joins us now with a look at what's coming up becky, breaking news that's a massive additional stake in apple >> caught me by surprise, too. the idea that buffett doubled down almost on apple shares as we were heading into this. at the end of last year, before the first quarter, they held 163.5 million shares of apple, berkshire hathaway did that made berkshire the fourth largest shareholder in the company. since then he added 75 million shares there were so many on wall street who were kind of doubting apple as we headed into this quarterly report analysts and investors who were thinking that maybe the iphone had lost some of its luster. maybe the iphone ten sales were not doing what they thought.

i started off talking to him by saying wall street was impressed by this, were you? he said absolutely i said were you doubting things? he said, no, he had been buying stock while it was under pressure that's what value investors do, and that's what buffett likes to do, buy when other people are doubting berkshire hathaway is the third largest shareholder in apple this will catch people off guard that they added that much. that's somewhere between 12 billion and $13 billion in additional shares. we'll talk about that. while we are here, there's about 40,000 people who will come to home has, 40,000 share holders coming to listen to charlie monger and warren buffett who will be on this stage. you can siee around this hall, about 20,000 people can fit

here there will be spillover rooming, people shopping on the other half of the floor, and we have a huge lineup of guests who will be joining us this morning because things are getting going. it's an hour earlier here. i thought at 3:00 this morning when i was up and walking through the hotel, i wouldn't run into anybody, i was in my pajamas. i did run into people. you have to be careful about such things. it's been an active morning already. this morning we have two of the berkshire managers joining us. mike sosh searles from benjamine and j weber. we will get the pulse of the consumer at 7:00 this morning we'll be joined by mario gobelli.

and we have don graham who is the former publisher of the "washington post." sold the "washington post" to jeff bezos, the film "the post" is out now about his mother and what she went through in the '60s and '70s with that newspaper. and don graham also a board member of facebook for six years. he's known mark zuckerberg since mark was about 20 years old. he wrote a spirited defense of mark's character before he was appearing in washington. we'll talk with him. we also have sue decker who formerly rania hugh who will weigh in on that issue she ran yahoo! and then we have a rare interview, bernardo hees of

kraft heinz, and berkshire hathaway a maker shareholder, is going to be talking about what they've been seeing in the consumer space what he sees on the horizon for acquisitions a lot of questions bernardo hees does not talk often. i'm looking forward to this interview. >> huge show coming up on "squawk box. thank you very much, becky thank you for being with us. >> thank you guys. >> still much more on "worldwide exchange" before we get to "squawk" including the countdown to the big jobs number tcngheings you should be wahi wn the report comes out. "worldwide exchange" will be right back yeah, i'm afraid so. it's okay. this is what we've been planning for. knowing what's important to you is why 7 million investors work with edward jones.

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the april jobs report is coming out in a few hours. joining us to break it down is danielle eddimartino booth and e

have david also joining us this jobs report, everyone is a big one. what would you be looking for in this report that i think could be a catalyst for markets? >> the headline is always the key. the consensus is around 190,000. we knowone thing about april, which is that we had three point declines in the is mark servim d manufacturing. that doesn't happen every day. that only happens 3% of the time in the past. when it does happen, typically non-farm payrolls are closer to 140,000 compared to 190,000. that would shake investor enthusiasm over the economy and throw some cold water on the view that the march report was just about the weather and seasonal quirks. >> danielle, i understand there are a couple things you're seeing that give you pause and

make you think about stagflatio stagflation. >> to david's point, not only have we seen three-point declines in both indices, we're going back to april of last year that we have seen these levels in both surveys. i've known john challenger for over 20 years. it's been ten since i heard him be bayish. yesterd yesterday we had 210,000 hiring announcements at this time compared to 360,000 last year at this time. construction came in below i'm just concerned that there's build up now as david said, march was not an aberration and there may be some down side this morning in the report we're starting to say we can see a confluence of factors that suggest there's some slowing out there despite this strength that we know in skilled sectors where

you can't find labor or enough warm bodies. >> david, one thing we've heard over the last few days, brian sullivan talking to scott minert, he said recession by 2020 we have not heard recession in quite some time. do we have to worry about that bad word >> i'm assuming you folks read my daily, breakfast with dave, i've been talking about a recession for months and talking about 2020 2020 is somewhere down the road in the future, that's an easy call i think a recession starts as early as next year i don't think it's two years down the road. and just -- there's a whole bunch of reasons why the point i would make back to your earlier question about what to look for, the consensus is not looking for it, the unemployment rate, wage number, everybody is looking at it i would zone in on one particular component today the work week for nonproduction,

nonsupervisory production workers. the work week tends to peak ahead of the end of the business cycle. employment usually goes down once the recession starts. employment is a lagging indicator. but the work week is a leading indicator because companies normally cut hours before they cut the bodies the work week peaked in december >> danielle, you're nodding, i want to give you the bottom line >> he's right. so few people have taken the work week into consideration which is a huge offset to any upside that we do see in hourly earnings that laser focus is misplaced in my view. if you look forward going a little bit, so many sign posts are out there. if the trade talk is just rhetoric, and if companies are just panic buying, if this is just a three alarm inflation scare, we'll see a lot of this heat come off come q3 and a lot of this might be a head fake >> all right

let's see if that happens. >> thanks for joining us that does it for our show. >> h auge "squawk box" is coming up next. that's confident. but it's not kayak confident. kayak searches hundreds of travel sites to help me plan the best trip. so i'm more than confident. forgot me goggles. kayak. search one and done.

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good morning we're watching shares of apple after warren buffett told becky that berkshire hathaway bought a whopping 75 million shares of apple in the first quarter we will take you live to omaha. and it's jobs friday we'll bring you predictions for that 8:30 number and tell you how stocks could react we have all the china tariff negotiations in the background plus may the fourth be with you. may the fourth -- did you know may 4th was "star wars" day? >> i did not know that >> may the fourth be with you. get it every day will be something for

you. tomorrow is cinco de mayo. it is "star wars" day and space day. we're bringing you a behind-the-scenes look at the mission that brought us closer to pluto than ever before. "squawk box" begins now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. and becky quick who is in omaha at the berkshire hathaway annual shareholders meeting she has a big lineup of executives and invest s and inv. hang on. we have to get to your news in one second we want to show viewers the futures just for a