tv Street Signs CNBC May 11, 2018 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines the dow rallies into positive territory for the year and its longest winning streak for three months driving asian equities to three-week peaks while europe opens higher the world's largest steel maker issues a bullish forecast posting its first quarter profit of 2$2.5 billion a long-running fakeover btar
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battle has been ended. and italy's ten-year bond yield is set for its biggest weekly rise since february as the five-star party says the next prime minister could be an independent figure with outside coalition with liga. good morning it is the last day of the trading week there's a breeze in the air of equity markets good gapes in asian session with most of the major indices there up more than 1%. in europe the mood as well is a bit more lackluster. still inching into the green with the stoxx 600 at the flat line the stoxx 600 is set for its seventh week of gains in a row this is the longest winning
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streak for the stoxx 600 in three years. let's switch to individual bourses. there you can see the underperformer today is cac 40 down 0.3%. no doubt impacted by some of the deals that have been crossingal wires. ftse mib just above the flat line, about 14 points higher as that market comes to terms with the potentially new government being formed in the coming days. one quick point on ftse 100 today, we're a bit lower on the back of that -- still that market is digesting carney's somewhat confusing press conference yesterday with a dovish forecast, but upbeat tone on the economy let's switch to sectors. you can see some of the
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leadership this morning is from the basic row sources sector, up more than 1% 1.2% that's pulled higher by arcelormittal. underperforming is healthcare, down 0.9%, utilities also down let's talk about fixed income we had the bank of england meeting yesterday. today the reaction is muted. we did get some bullish reaction in fixed income after that press conference the ten-year gilt did rally three or four basis points all eyes will be on italy. the ten-year yield is now 1.90 sold off 15 basis points in the last few weeks that market is coming to terms with the fact that we may actually be facing a government
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that has a much loser fiscal policy than its predecessor. on that note, our top story again is that politicians in italy have taken significant steps towards the nomination of a prime minister and a in government that's according to a statement from the leaders of the five star movement and league sergio mattarella set a tdeadlie for sunday for talks to conclude willem, can you tell us the latest >> we have these talks going on between dimaio and salvini, they have taken nine weeks to get to this point where they're having significant conversations. that would in theory end this deadlock the two men have both previously indicated they would like to take on the role of prime minister they say they would consider a candidate outside either of their two parties, but mutually
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acceptable one name was giancarl giancarlo giorgetti. considered a part of the lega party's more moderate wing if these talks fail, on sunday mattarella could give that opportunity to a caretaker prime minister a couple of names out there is the former chancellor of university in milan, guid guido tabellini. we have heard from lega and five star if that happens they would not give that approval
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>> thanks for that joining us around the desk is jack allen, european economist at capital european economics. up until now, i was talking about ten-year yields, but up until the last week or so, markets were agnostic. we barely saw any movement in italian assets after the march 4th elections. why do i think that's the case >> i think immediately after the elections all the headlines were saying big gains for populist parties, but until the last few days it seemed unlikely that any of those parties would make it into government. that's why we probably saw yields fall, spreads narrow in italy until the last few days when it seemed like they might be able to form a government those negotiations could still fall through that's pruesumably why we have not seen much bigger increases
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in yields. if they form a government, which maybe they will, maybe they won't, there's a place for much bigger increases in yields >> can we talk about their policy proposal specifically five-star wants to introduce a universal basic income lega wants to introduce a flat tax of 15% all of these things require fiscal loosening what do you think is the likelihood of those measures getting passed two, you don't think that the bond markets are actually accounting for that possibility? >> these two parties are not natural bedfellows they have some big differences in policies, and in terms of where they get support from. you have the lega getting a lot of support from the northern regions of italy five-star get most of their support from the poorer southern
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regions me regionsment the league would like to see big income tax cuts, five-star universal income all these parties knew they would not have a majority in government and they won't be able to follow through with those plans. in practice i think we won see any of those extreme policies implemented. but we will still see some loosening of fiscal policy, some level of income tax cuts, corporate tax cuts, some additional support for those on lower incomes. if they get into government, it's likely we'll have a bigger budget deficit >> one commonalty between these two platforms is their deep skepticism towards brussels and the european union we heard that five-star movement have pulled back from the idea of holding referendum on the euro we her from the head of the lega that he would like to see the
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you're yo screuro scrapped as ss politically feasible when you look at the fiscal restrictions on european member states, do you foresee something that the italian government with some of these platforms would spend more money and what would that mean for their economies, do you think >> there's lots of concern about what the parties would do. at least in the near-term, a modest loosening of fiscal policy would be quite good you would get a bit of a boost to gdp growth. while the italian economy is recovering, it's still a laggard in european countries. further ahead, then you start to worry about sustained bigger budget deficits, higher level of government debt, larger bond yields, higher bond yields both of these parties have
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pushed back against reforms in the past economic reform will help drive italy's economic growthin the long run not only have they proposed reforms, they suggested reversing previous reforms that have been implemented over the last few years, reforms to pensions, to the labor market. that's not good for the long run. >> thanks for that, jack i'm happy to say joining us on the line is franco frattini, the former italian foreign minister. who do you think the next prime minister will be we heard from dimaio, and he was saying that perhaps we could be looking at an independent candidate. italy has a long history of putting forward consensus candidates who do you think will be the likely next prime minister the second thing i want to ask is how much longevity do you see
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in this alliance between lega and five star if it goes ahead >> well, first of all, very much will depend on what the two leaders, mr. dimaio and mhis counterpart decide in the next few hours. they are talking before who will be probably the next prime minister and i don't know who will be the next prime minister, but i am sure it will be somebody who will have a clear perspective, somebody who will keep in a clear way the traditional italian position considering historic and alliances -- i
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mean, the perspective of italy will be kept and i think also the new prime minister will be somebody having an institutionalist experience maybe. and also a political understanding because these will be a political government. not a government made by the technical class. i think the two leaders would very much like to have a concrete approach, vis-a-vis concrete problems for the italian population, and for the italian future no doubt under the very tentative active of monitoring
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institutional and constitutional prerogative of the president, very soon we'll have a new government that will be in line with the historical position of my country in the european and euro-atlantic framework. >> i wanted to ask you this, you are suggesting somebody pro europe, pro u.s. will be put in place we heard repeatedly from salvini and dimaio, they want a political candidate. how can a political candidate representing their two views on europe end up as prime minister with their approval? >> when i say there will be a prime minister able to represent an institutional career, an
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institutional background, at the same time having a political understanding. able to understand perfectly, otherwise the two leaders will not indicate that person, a lady or man is not at the point now, but someone who can understand the political nuances. coincides with all the points of their political program, while mr. dimaio conforms. also eventually his position is very pro american oriented, mr. salvini is in favor of rebalancing by having also russia to be taken into
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consideration in the new governmentof italy foreign policy even though they are not perfect coincidents between the two parties main position, i'm sure that the new prime minister will be a person able to understand all those points and to take all those points as i said before, we shouldn't forget that president mattarella is there and president mattarella will for sure exert all his constitutional influence to guide the formation of the new government towards the right italian perspective for the future >> because you bring this up, you're saying we're likely to end up with somebody more pragmatic when it comes to euro relations, how about the relations with russia? many analysts pointed to the
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fact that lega have good ties with russia, would be looking for a loosening of sanctions as far as they're concerned and will push for that as one of the primary foreign policy objectives if they were in government how do you pair the two up >> it's premature to say what the new government will do while talking about position to be taken vis-a-vis russian federation it is not a secret in italy there's always been a position promoting a role, vis-a-vis the russian federation trying to get russia involved for the good of corporations, for the stability of the middle east also the government of mr. je
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gentilo gentiloni, the government of mr. renzi, so there's a continuity so i'm not suggesting simply a pragmatic approach i'm suggesting what is the historical foreign policy of italy, which is for sure -- first of all, within the euro-atlantic alliance but also pro involving russia necessary for the common interests >> thank you very much for that. that was franco frattini jack, how long do you think it will take for the rating agencies to start downgrading italy if there's a government that opens the coffers and starts spending? >> i don't think they'll act immediately. i think they'll wait to see what the government is able to do perhaps the most obvious time is around october when the
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government subjects the budget to the european union. >> thank you very much for joining us that was jack allen from capital economics. let's take you to live pictures from florence where je joon clau jean-claude junk ser delcker is delivering a speech. we will come back to updates the end of a complex construction fight is in sight we'll have more on that in just a few moments. ♪
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cast your vote during every live show. simply say, "vote for the voice" or your favorite artist's name into your x1 voice remote. come on! signs. a complex construction fight is coming to an end as saint-gobain and sika have reached an agreement. the deal will see saint-gobain have a large stake in sika but not majority control it will own just over 10% of sika the agreement also ends the long
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legal dispute between saint-gobain and non-family directors of sika. there is the chart both of them up. in the last 12 months or so, there's been a bit of a mixed forlt tu fortune for the two companies. looks like we finally have clarity on that deal >> shares in zoopla are surging after u.s. private equity firm silver lake management bought the property website for 2.2 billion pounds daily mail is also trading higher the british newspaper gave its backing to the deal. the news boosted stocks in rival websites like rightmove and auto trader zpg stocks are up 30% in trading. rightmove and auto trader are up
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6% and 4%. strong private equity growth continued in 2017 with investment across europe reaching the highest level in a decade according to research, more than 7$700 billion of capital was raised worldwide during the year, contributing to a record 1$1.7 trillion in dry powder. that's a big number. and joining me to discuss is peter wilson, managing director of harborvest partners do you think we've gotten to a point where there's too many companies, too many private equity companies sitting on this dry powder and chasing too few properties >> there have been the questions on dry powder and how capital gets to work for more than 35 years. harborvest was established to give institutional investors an opportunity to have access to
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great private equity portfolios as well as private companies and we've done that now over the last 35 years and as well, about ten years ago set up a listed vehicle called harborvest global private equity to do the same thing. for those individuals or institutional investors that wanted access to private equity through a listed vehicle we just announced our results today, ninth consecutive year of growth so dealing with dry powder, how do you navigate some of iier wa we've been doing for a long time >> so being more selective broadly speaking, the returns are also beginning to drop there's so much competition and also because generally yields on all products globally are lower than in the past do you think that's also beginning to transpire in the private equity space and we've reached the peak of this cycle and going forward people should
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expect lower returns >> it's a great question there's no doubt that what's important in looking at private equity is to have a long-term perspective in terms of the kinds of returns you're looking to generate. if you look over the last ten years, median returns from private equity firms have run 9%, compared to 6% for the public markets the top of the industry at 18 %, 19%. privatit privatity -- private equity firms have been able to generate monies for investors >> i believe at one point, you were invested in facebook. i want to ask you about the opportunities in europe. because technology doesn't come up in the context of europe. are you seeing growth there and opportunity there's? >> absolutely. there are -- technology is at a high level, it's one of the most
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important things we see in private equity today whether it's disrupting established industries or allowing opportunities for startups in newer companies to develop and get backing from institutional venture capital firms. europe has been a major force in supporting venture capital and growth companies there's been a number of strong venture capital players based in european have expanded into markets like the united states and china, taking skills and companies there, also with success for their investors. >> one last question on management fees what we have seen is -- the macro fund community has been forced to reduce the amount of fees they charge for their investors, particularly again in this environment of low returns and low yields i wonder if the traditional private equity model still works, given that many of these companies are still charging 20% management fees. >> performance fees. >> that's correct.
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management fees is a topic that has been at the forefront of a lot of investors concerns. we published our results today with hdpe, that harbor vest charges to hdpe 1.08 to 1.1% i think the key here is scale as a manager. you need global operations and scale in terms of assets in order to deliver the services and performance investors expect of you >> peter, thanks for that. that was peter wilson bringing us the latest on private equity. we will be right back after this break stay with us
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maker issues a bullish forecast as arcelormittal posts a first quarter profit of $2.5 billion. and saint-gobain and sika end a long-running takeover battle and italy's ten-year bon yield is set for its biggest weekly rise since february as the five-star party says the next prime minister could be an independent figure with outside coalition with lega. good morning let's check in on markets. we did see some good gains in equity markets in the overnight session. also in the u.s. session dow is now positive for the year after yesterday's close. you can see today it's opening up about 20 points higher. s&p one point lower. a bit lackluster, but we are
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finally in positive territory for the year as far as the dow is concerned and heading into the end of the earnings season switching to european markets a bit of a mix the picture most of the indexes are flat cac 40 is the exception, down 0.30%. for the first session in a while, dollar is trading weaker. no doubt after the slightly disappointing cpi print took some of the bullishness out of the dollar we are seeing that in eu euro/doll euro/dollar, it's firmer on the day up at 1.1920 dollar/yen coming off a bit as well cable hanging in around the 1.3520 mark. we did drop almost a full point around the mpc decision yesterday afternoon. since then we have rebounded with some weakness in dollar seeping through as well. i was talking about u.s. core
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inflation. that crept 0.2% higher following a 0.1% slip in march that was just shy of the estimated 0.3% gains fuel and rental prices were the main target of growth. the bank of england deputy governor said the decision to hold rates at the latest policy meeting was a straightforward one. this after robust questioning of mark carney and the committee over its guidance as the bank held rates and reduced its forecast for gdp and inflation this year. markets priced out a definite rate rise for 2018 from the bank of england as weaker data in the first quarter kept the bank on hold they do see the economy rebounding from the q1 slump putting the dip down to bad weather. so mixed signals from carney
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yesterday. a dovish forecast but a more upbeat tone on the economy. the imf's christine lagarde says the organization is ready to assist argentina. financing details would not be disclosed until an agreement is reached. argentina which is suffering from soaring inflation is seeking financial assistance from the imf for more on argentina's tango with the imf and how weakening currency could resurrect all deemons for the south american country, head to cnbc.com. on monday, i will speak to cleveland fed president loretta
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mester that will be live from paris. u.s. president donald trump is scheduled to meet with top u.s. automakers today. executives from ford, general motors, fiat chrysler, along with the heads of daimler volkswagen are expected to attend they will discuss changes to fuel efficiency rules. the trump administration faces lawsuits from california and several other states after freezing fuel efficiency levels to 2020 levels geely eyes an ipo for volvo cars citi group, goldman sachs and morgan stanley have been picked for the potential ipo which could see volvo cars valued between 16 and $30 billion. geely said they're looking at the possibilities on listing volvo cars the swedish firm told cnbc an
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ipo is an option and arjun joins me with more from one other carmaker trying to use hydrogen as fuel. what can you tell us >> you are speaking about fuel efficiency there there's a lot of carmakers looking into thefuture of cars is it electric or other fuel sources. and a british company developed a car called raza which runs on hydrogen it looks like a futuristic design with a bit of retro elements to it it runs on 1.5 kilos of hydrogen, which gives it a range of 300 miles the company sees it as an alternative to electric and claims it's more fuel efficient allowing it to go longer distances. i sat down with the founder and asked his ambitions for this car which he hopes will hit the roads in 2020.
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>> it's pretty much universally agreed we need battery electric cars and hydrogen cars as well the characteristics of batteries and hydrogen are so different we need them both but for different applications i think that energy efficiency is the single metric that we have to chase in the future. batteries are heavy. efficiency of a car depends on the weight of the car hugely sobatteries are good for short-range applications, but at about 100, 120 miles we believe we can make a more efficient hydrogen car than battery car, at 300 miles, 400 miles it's so much more efficient. >> the battery technology, are there other applications you see as well in the aviation space or other areas that you feel this technology might be applied to >> for hydrogen? absolutely yes. there's a lot of hydrogen buses now around the world
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hydrogen trains increasingly emerging it's a much cheeper way of de-cashde de-carbonizing train lines so many of those lines can be rin run on hydrogen emissions. >> do you see lower oil prices that have been around for a while being a hindrance? >> no we don't see that a problem at all our car uses so little hydrogen, it's so efficient, it's economically viable now. we think they're more profitable, the cars now that we want to produce than the conventional car is. interesting margins are tiny and our cars, i should point out, the car is designed so that we never sell a car at all we will only sell a service. by selling a service our interest is longevity rather than obsolescence.
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the contract that is paid monthly covers all customers costs. >> that was hugo spowers there and he's part of a government program that is working with startups to work on these things he said a car can go on 300 miles on a full tank of hydrogen a tesla claims it can good 330 mil mil miles fully charged. the model 3 has had fuj phuge production issues. so the question is can they bring these cars en masse, and is the car affordable?
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later in that interview he said people would never be able to own this car but pay a direct monthly debit like you do with a mobile phone contract to essentially hire this car for the month. but that would include insurance, that would include hydrogen refueling so he's thinking about the future of not only fuel but car ownership here and whether we see that model take off or not is yet to be seen. lots of challenges here for the car industry as it moves towards this new era of fuel and towards driverless as well and car ownership. plenty of challenges ahead to see whether this car can hit the road 2020, whether it's able to bring this en masse to consumers in that short time frame back to you. >> super interesting i have an expert with me to discuss. we have the head of global automotive research from evercore what is your thinking of this
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hydrogen car in is this going to be viable competition for electric vehicles we're seeing are they going to compliment one another? can they really hit the road in 2020 >> maybe in the long-term, yes certainly not by 2020. we've been looking into hydrogen cars from bmw, toyota, for the last 15, 20 years. the problem is in theory this power is effective, clean. but for mass adoption you need to transport the hydrogen, store it so the infrastructure is not there. it's a very, very expensive technology that will struggle to be rolled out in scale over time >> similar for electric cars as well president trump will be meeting with various automakers today, not just u.s. automakers but european automakers as well. one topic discussed will be this topic of rolling back regulations of fuel efficiency
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why is there so much push back from the automakers? presumably less regulation is a good thing for them. >> would have thought if you lower the standards, everyone would be cheering, that's great. fantastic. but the auto industry is spending more on r & d than any other industry globally. carmakers are preparing to comply with global emission standards, and they're tightening everywhere. so you want to see a return on your investment. and if the standards are now being brought back in the u.s., there's just a risk that those guys will see a return on their investment >> i want to talk about nafta specifically as well the tone out of the trump administration has suffered a bit. looks like we're heading towards some form of an agreement, but as far as autos are concerned, rules of origin are important. if i had to ask you which are
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the most exposed u.s. carmakers for these change in rules, rules of origin and content, which ones are you watching closely? >> of the americans, it's fiat chrysler they produce a large amount of their cars in mexico it's a profitable manufacturing base for u.s. oems if you look at the numbers, fiat would be most exposed. there's a lot of talk about the industry being powerful to keep a framework that allows them to generate returns that shareholders are asking for and to manufacture the cars at a cost that benefits the consumer. one final question i thought this was interesting this surprised me when the whole subject of u.s./china tariffs come out you said as china looks to roll out tariffs, the biggest beneficiary is german automakers, not u.s. automakers.
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>> that's because americans don't export cars with the exception of tesla to china, but the germans do in a big way. they pretty much export all their suvs in high demand in china from plans in the u.s. >> we have to leave it there thank you very much for joining us on the show arcelormittal shares are up after beating first quarter expectations the steelmaker's core profit rose 13% from the same period last year coming in at 2.$2.51 billion. the outlook for 2018 has improved on the back of higher steel prices and is forevcastin global steel consumption growth of 1.5 to 2.5% for the year. stronger aluminum prices
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helped boost rusal prices in the first quarter. profits jumped to 5$53 mil1 mil. the statement said it is highly likely sanctions would be material adverse. and putin's prowess on the ice rink continues as the rux president scored five goals to help his team win a tournament in sochi it was part of an amateur tournament that helped promote the game in russia the so-called legends of hockey game is a way for teams to generate funding and a way to get new equipment. we'll talk more sports after the break.
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swansea city looks to be relegated along with stoke so what can we expect this weekend? >> those teams at the bottom, we can see them here, stoke city and west brom already consigned to relegation. swansea likely to join them unless there is a ten-goal swing and other results go their way >> you never know. >> you never know in football. but basically we're talking a 50 million pound hole that they'll need to fill next season because of what is a total of about 90 million they get from the "power lunch" p premiere league per season but those clubs going down, they will get parachute payments as they're known. that's helpful in terms of
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softening the blow, essentially. they get 40 million in the first year, 35 million in the second, and if they still have not made it back up by the third year, it's down to 15 million pounds then they lose players and sponsors all the more impressive then that all three promoted sides on this graphic who have final games this weekend, they all stayed up so that includes brighton and huddersfield who have never been in the league before newcastle as well who retained a lot of their championship players and have a net spend of 45 million pounds. when you think about "power lunc premiere colleague finances and paul pogba at 90 pounds, running a season on that is impressive >> wayne rooney going to d.c. united is it me or is the u.s. the
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place you go to when you're retiring from british football is that unfair >> traditionally that's the case he's not confirmed yet that he's off to the mls he will be following the footsteps of david beckham going to l.a. galaxy that's about ten years ago now he wasn't quite finished then. he played for england then the changing face of the mls is kind of a league on the up, but, yes, there is a reputation that the players in the twilight of their career, and wayne rooney has done that dropping back in midfield with england, leaving manchester united. if they move him in the summer, he would be a great addition for them in the mls, i think he could do a job. >> he is still everton's top goalscorer >> this season he is everton's top goalscorer england's all-time top
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goalscorer >> great thank you very much for that different story altogether the stage is set for a summit between president trump and kim jong-un. both leaders will meet face-to-face in singapore on the 12th of june trump said he had high hopes of achieving something meaningful on the denuclearization of the peninsula. >> the relationship is good. hopefully for all of us, for all of us, the world, hopefully something good is going to happen they understand it's very important for them it's important for everybody so japan, south korea, china, everybody, i think it's going to be a very big success. >> the u.s. has imposed sanctions on three companies and six individuals havelinks to iran's revolutionary guard they are the first measures imposed after president trump withdrew the u.s. from the iran nuclear deal the treasury department worked in conjunction with the uae to
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target those it says funneled millions of dollars to the group and accused iran's sprawl bank central bank of evading u.s. sanctions. china has agreed to a concept of reducing the trade defic deficit. wilbur ross said talks with china had made progress and that beijing agreed to the concept of reducing the trade deficit ross made clear if china is willing, the two countries would sh able to close the gap >> certainly could do the trick on trade because they're a huge consumption market there's no question we could close the gap on trade if they wish. and novartis' ceo told
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employees that the company made a mess take after the drugmaker revealed it pazid 1.$1.2 milliot president trump's personal lawyer, michael cohen. as a result the company was being criticized by a world that expects more from us the swiss pharmaceutical firm entered into the one-year agreement for guidance on how the trump administration planned to approach healthcare policy. speaking to cnbc, commerce secretary wilbur ross also said such transactions were common in washington >> there are a lot more alligators than there are swamp in washington. and a lot of -- >> what do you mean? >> a lot are the kinds of people who would be paying money to someone like michael cohen for some real or imagined access or real or imagined intuition into what the president was thinking. a lot of that goes on.
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sometimes i think the main role of the lobbyist is to arrange meetings they seem happy if they can get a meeting. almost independently of the outcome. and a complex construction fight is coming to an end as saint-gobain and sika have reached an agreement saint-gobain will own just 10% of sika. the agreement also ends the long legal dispute between saint-gobain and non-family directors of sika. shares in zoopla's zpg are surging after silver lake bought them
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daily mail is also trading higher the british newspaper gave its backing to the deal. the news boosted stocks in rival websites like rightmove and auto trader before we head out, let's look at european markets. i was saying earlier that the stoxx 600 had its seventh week of gains in a row, the longest winning streak in three years. even though the mood is a bit negative in today's session, overall it's been a good couple of weeks of gains for europe as a broad sector we have cac 40 down 0.4% dow is seen opening up about 30 points higher. s&p lower. but nothing major there. that is it for today's show. i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. xfinity x1 customers can vote, simply by saying,
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"vote for the voice." i'm gonna vote for... unless, kelly clarkson, you're a coach, because, you know, that wouldn't be fair. [ whispering ] whatever. which artist will you vote for? vote for... ok, still know it's you. i just wanna vote! cast your vote during every live show. simply say, "vote for the voice" or your favorite artist's name into your x1 voice remote. come on!
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i'm seema mody, it's 5:00 a.m., here's your five at 5:00 president trump expected to lay out a new plan to bring down drug prices today. at&t reportedly paid $600,000 to michael cohen for help on its time warner merger. shares of semantic are deep in the red the annual report could be delayed due to an internal investigation. spacex scrubbing the launch of its falcon 9 rocket due to technical issues the company will try again. and hawaii on high ale
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