tv Fast Money CNBC May 18, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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>> jolt? president trump gets two thumbs up, spoke with president xi -- >> it's a little premature >> i thought it was may 22nd >> no, i think it's june 12. i take your point. there is a lot more than retail earnings evan newmark, mike santilly. "fast money" starts right now. new york city overlooking times square tonight on "fast," it was the wrong consensus. falling short of expectations of the greatest bulls and one was none other than tom lee. what does he think will happen next tom will be here to tell us what plus, it is rare that an earnings report causes a battle at the white house, but cam
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bel -- campbell's soup is getting crushed and you won't believe who they're blaming. the horse race is on the nasdaq is leaving the others in the dust. up 7% driven most bill technology in the race for profits, where is the best place to put your money, small caps or tech? it is a friday show. >> be quick, guys. friday we don't have a lot of time let me explain real quick. there is a reason to not be in small caps valuation is one of the reasons. nasdaq is kind of expensive compared to russell 2000 what they have exposure to, interest rates going higher will not be good for small caps you saw a lot of outflows in small caps over the last couple months people are now playing catchup
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in the second half of the year, so i happen to think despite those negatives i mentioned, the russell can perform. >> what about the dollar just to compensate for that. everything a guy said about the russell in terms of rates going up, i could say the dollar is a heads up for nationality we argued when the russell was going to take over the s&p and that never happened way back when it feels like it was years ago people waited for this outperformance and i think it's going to last a little longer. >> big cap decks are up, what, 6, 7%, right it didn't necessarily underperform, but in the head way of a strong dollar, the strong dollar was weak
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i think big caps are the best bet. >> i think the global momentum in general from an economic perspective has been shifting a little bit favoring the u.s. small caps, in my opinion for the short term, could absolutely outperform technology. you talk about the dollar. in my opinion, i don't think the dollar is necessarily going to get crazy, get away from us in the trajectory it's been in the short term we've seen a big short term move in the dollar. i don't think that's sustainable. but i do favor -- for the near term, i do favor it. >> some of these guys were already paying lower rates granted, everyone is going to pay a lower rate, but when you go with a more domestically facing corporation from a 35% tax rate down to a 21% tax rate, that's a huge tailwind >> but in terms of technology specifically, we're seeing tax rates go down tremendously specifically for the big cap companies, and the tax they're able to save is helping
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tremendously >> it has helped i would view that as already pricing. it's not a bad thing, right? it probably puts a floor under it the one knock on tech, even though i thought let's do tech over russell, the other knock is if the rest of the world is weak, like dave was saying, then the u.s. is going to be stronger that being said, this big rise in commodity of oil will be good for them sdp >> if i could flip it and say, i think tech is going to outperform now, i would say would be when the china deal is done every time you watch a negative article, a negative headline come out, you see all large cap tech from china get slapped down that takes ours down with it if you see that trade deal get done, maybe this weekend, maybe next weekend, maybe middle of in the case week, i think tech rises higher >> is there a misconception
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about small caps given the modern day and age with a lot of trade happening, that small trade companies are doing a lot of global business than what previously had been. small caps have been extremely insulated. >> a lot of small caps find their way in the energy space, too. energy has done well there are a number of great arguments you can make that russell will outperform. my biggest argument is people are behind the 8-ball, people are starting to catch up and i think it will manifest itself end of the year. the biggest news is the nasdaq >> let's also remember the financials, the smaller cap financials, a lot of these regionals make up a large component of the russell, too. i'm a big buyer of that sector so i thinkthat could help on
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outperform >> small caps. we're talking about regional banks consolidating, we're talking about companies in the russell 2000, aren't we? >> somewhat, but also remember they want to do big deals, too i don't think it's exclusive to the russell. it's probably one incremental thing. on the financials, if you want to isolate that, check out kre, which is a small cap, or regional bank etf, right that will get you basically your small cap banks throughout the country, u.s.-based. >> in terms of the charts, this is the russell 2000's straight third record >> if you look for that 147, if you go back to 2016, 2017, that backed up and failed a couple times. ibm exploded to current levels we're seeing now i think against that 140ish
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level, about 8% down side, frankly that's what you're holding for, then it's off to the races. >> in terms of technology, are our fund managers overexposed to technology >> i wouldn't necessarily say that the one thing about technology is because it's so big and because it's so liquid, people will use that as a cash register >> we say it every single down day, right >> so the flip side of that is when the market starts going back up, they have to reestablish those positions. i think that again is a tailwind >> another thing i think p.k. was leaning toward, too, technology is so big and broad, but there are so many semi das there is a little bit for sh in there. i still think there's money to
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put to work. >> i continued to buy, actually. in the video, for example for example. >> is it m video or like tomato-tomato kind of thing? >> i think we have another year in the story here to continue to own the stock, then i think you have to be careful for specific reasons. we can get into it in another show >> what other show >> this is it, seaver. >> i think the cyber security names were interest, these days. we've talked about -- whoa, tim is not here tonight, but the refine rh refineryes >> they're going to make these chips which are quite popular in
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cryptic mining and they're going to come up with the count sooner than i thought, so i like the upgrade. >> i bought tesla on long, snap -- and i got long snap thinking about -- >> what do you think the floor is on tesla? you're the levels guy. i thought you had this all figured out. >> because i think the 4 is $20 lower than here. if you look at 275 we flirted with it >> don't ask morgan stanley. it is a potato problem potatoes lower at jack in the box. what went wrong and what's
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welcome back to "fast money. the largest bitcoin conference came right here to new york city this week and was supposed to send crypto currencies to the moonment moon instead they got wrecked why did everybody get that wrong? bitcoin cash down 18%, ripple, litecoin, ethereum askand bitco down what did you miss on this call >> we were expecting consensus because there was a huge increase in the size of the audience that given the uncertainty of bitcoin for most of this year with the wallet that gathering a group of experts was going to
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reinvigorate confidence. instead i think we saw there was a large audience it was probably a little tougher for folks to discern the underlying message because we didn't get regulatory clarity. >> i saw on twitter you were responding to somebody who was asking you about your call on consensus, and basically you mentioned the rate did you think we were going to get regulatory clarity because you said that was an area we fell short did you think consensus would be that much of a breakthrough event for this industry? >> well, to be clear, what we thought would be a risk was if there was something that could push the regulatory picture incrementally negative and, you know, the absence of that would have been positive. and i think in general i kind of would say on balance i think there was a slight negative tilt to the regulatory outlook. because it was going to take longer than most expected to
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really get some certainty. >> so tom, you wrote if a note this morning about the institutional uptake the big thing we've been talking about is when will custody be coming we have a couple of those announcements today. now the task is getting the people at the institutions to buy in in my experience, there is one little group when do you think that happens >> it's going to take time there was real good news on the custodial progress but on the flip side of that is the institutions not only have to have a team that's enthusiastic about adopting crypto currencies, they have to essentially vandalize internally we've got that first step. >> what on the regulatory front disappointed you why was it more negative >> i think we need to be
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understanding of what we have to announce it was really interesting how people would shape their views around regulatory or their incremental data >> are you talking about things like whether or not ethereum is a security or commodity? >> the kind of conversations that were taking place, it's great that they were going to have another contract for another crypto currency for ethereum and the fact that when they finally turn on live is in some ways a signal that ethereum is likely to be viewed as a utility token. so there is going to be -- when they go live with this contract it's actually something else but on the flip side, i think there is a lot of side
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conversations about how people feel about their last conversation with regulators at last balance, it just didn't feel like things were moving forward. >> with the amount of money that came in last year, are the barges that much higher now? the theory was it -- has the bar just been set. >> first of all, i think consensus was a huge success it's a great conference to bring a lot of people together from around the world, ask i think the quality of people were there. it was amazing it's people you know are important to this industry coming together, but also the decisionmay. or for this group to kind of --
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this product has tripled in size compared to a year ago i think everyone, including myself, was a business caution so people are less, but people have to be happy or the opposite of mid ral, the 20,000 we have to keep in mind that bitkoun in it doesn't require bitcoin to go up every ten days. if you didn't go up against bitcoin this year, you lost that
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year i think it's really good news that bitcoin lowered its index which went to 18 a month ago it's back to 30. it's acting consistent, but it's among the 60 rewatch, the lowest consistent index >> thanks. in terms of what you thought of the difference? >> the number one takeaway which i think will surprise everybody, crypto is thriving in china. e even though it's so-called banned, there's plenty to go over there number three, adoption, right? there is this big divide adoptions happening in asia
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welcome back to "fast money. campbell soup going lower. if you recall back in march, commerce secretary wilbur ross came on this network and held up a can of campbell soup to demonstrate the tariffs would have very little impact on soup cans today ross fired back at campbell's comments telling cnbc, quote, it is physically impossible that a few days of a tariff resulted in a $393 million loss they are using the tariffs as a cover-up for other problems. >> you go back to 2016, the
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stocks being cut in half from then you can't blame this on tariffs. they do have an idealogical difference about what people think as to what they want to eat, what they think is organic. >> condensed soup. >> it's just not where people want to be even my generation, younger generation, the older generation people are going for different things on the shelf. >> everybody has a house brand everybody from kroger to house brand. >> you have to help the hawaiian economy there. >> this time in 2016, i couldn't spell tariff i couldn't spell tariff in 2016. >> now you can >> no. but that's not the point >> it's ridiculous to think this
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caused that kind of hit for them they're getting squeezed by walmart, they're getting squeezed by everybody from a distribution point at the end of the day, they can't survive in this sort of atmosphere in my opinion, i would stay far away from them >> is there a staple that you would buy? >> besides campbell pork and beans? you can buy staples in general i think the -- look what it did to aluminum prices aluminum prices have absolutely skyrocketed. it doesn't mean government action >> how can you buy staples, period, in a rising environment? that's the major headwind on the macro. you might like some of the companies, i don't disagree. >> if you think the dollar is strong, you have procter &
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gamble -- >> don't overlook the debt c campbe campbell's has they have a tremendous amount of debt >> let's shift gears wedding bells are in the air tomorrow american actress meghan markle will have no shortage of american attendees we have fit four stocks they say are fit for a queen. >> i'm hoping for royal riches with ge. bought it below $14, traded right around $15 this is a major line in the sand, $15. i think there is a major upside from here. ge >> b. k. >> for me you want to take a look at what they do the royals, financial powerhouses. i would look to the major financial powerhouses, xlf
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this is "options action" on this friday. here's what's going on in the show >> maybe not, because according to carter worth, something in the chart suggests there may be no happy meal for investors. we'll break it down. plus, risk one to make five? dan nathan has a way to do just that if chip stocks move just 8%, he'll break it down. and ralph lauren sha
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