something like that. if they're the ones first to do this or maybe under the most financial pressure, do they still give a sense of other companies that may follow? these are the ponderables. phil lebeau, thank you for the latest on harley that does it for the closing bell thank you for joining us, run if -- "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" begins right now. i'm melissa lee. traders are tim seymour, guy adami. the selloff in full force and one sector traders are betting will get hit harder. plus, not just stocks selling off, the summer of pain for bitcoin continues and a top crypto investor in bitcoin says things will get worse for another 200 days spencer bogart of blockchain capital will be here to explain that first, we start with the market selloff the trade war igniting massive selloff. the dow falling 500 points and nearing correction territory more than half the stocks in the

s&p 500 are in a correction but wait a second, with just 30 minutes to go in the trading day, it was the trump administration to the rescue listen to what trade advisor and hawk peter navarro said on the closing bell. >> i think this is a day that -- the momentum traders get ahold of that and drag things done but if you're a long-term investor this economy is going great, this president, tax cuts, deregulation, low energy and good trade policy yielding strong investment here what's not like to like about that >> call it the navarro bounce. we rallied hard into the close and are 300 points off the lows of the day so when things get bad, count k you count on the trump administration to step in and stop the selling is there a trump put in this market, guy? >> i believe there is a trump put and i think they waltzed out mr. navarro to sway market fears and walk back some of the things we read earlier in the day

no question about it however you have to believe the only reason we've been selling off is due to the tariffs. i don't believe that maybe it is and obviously today was a heavy tariff headline day but that wednesday when i thought the fed was extraordinarily hawkish and if you think there's a fed put, you're mistaken, we've had these conversations so even though the trump administration can sway the market hour to hour minute to minute, there's much bigger things at play not to mention eem which tim has talked about and the fact that european banks, maybe there is a systemic risk there. >> so the fed put is gone? >> i believe the fed put is gone, i don't know thi administration is following the market minute to minute even though we had a time where the president was tweeting about it. i think if you look at the survey, people are worried about the economy. you have major price pressures, issues business leaders are talking about on a bout of nafta tariffs and tariffs of those

based upon china i understand there's ass to follow. that's why the $50 billion is going to happen. i think the filings that may have to happen in the next couple days may happen as well to do that you need an investigation. but no i don't feel better this administration -- that concerns me so i don't feel better watching him talk on tv. >> i feel like the market has been an arbiter of their success. i believe they want to have a trump put. promise it's not an at-the-money put so the market has gone down quite a bit. we're down -- >> ten sessions or >> that wasn't much of a put considering how much we've gone down to me, his comments were concerning because it didn't seem like everybody was on the same page. >> they're not. >> they're not

that's problematic we agree with all right, there should be trade or tariff changes. i'm on board for that, the methodology seems destructive. so if you look at something like letter x you would think should they be a beneficiary you would think they would but because there's so much uncertainty out there if that stall what is will that do for letter x >> so i believe there is a trump put. i believe if you look at the chart on the s&p we have a series of high or lows from the february lows. i believe every time rhetoric comes out and he softens it the market rallies this was about north korea. came back from a summit, pressured china to get on kim jong-un to deliver in his verbal agreements and that's what we're watching right now trump put. >> so the selloff began with north korea? >> think about when trump

ratcheted up on tariff talks, it was right when he got back from the north korean summit. i think he wants to put pressure on china to keep him at the table the. >> to me this is really -- trade tariffs at a time when we're concerned about the fed. >> are we can't about the fed? >> i'm not concerned about the fed. >> i think people should be. listen to these regional surveys. the prices paid, the prices received are at ten, 11 year highs. >> do you think the fed will not hike interest rates as planned because of the impact of trade >> i think the fed is talking about this. >> so there's a fed put as well. >> i think the bottom line is the fed put is gone. the fed has been clear to say they're going to be data dependent but to say the market that has been trading in a range where we are right now is --

this all happened at the top of the peak. >> here's a conundrum. >> a game or a conundrum >> it could be either. if the fed telegraphs that they are not willing to raise interest rates as quickly as they broadcasts before, will the markets react well or badly to that >> the dogma in me and the pessimists would say the markets would react poorly because they would see something that they have visions about what's happening in the world that might necessarily be positive for the market in reality, the market will probably act favorably that's a mistake. >> but i don't think the market would act 100% favorably because i don't think they're concerned with the fed any longer. the number one reason or concern is the trade dispute with china. >> doesn't the fed lay interthis? if we're feeling the inflation effects of tariffs and then layer on the inflation effects of a rate hike, isn't that a lot

of inflation for the market to take >> we have had zero inflation for so long i think the manageable inflation you're talking about will be just that, manageable so you can say we're going to have inflation but we have those corporate tax cuts so i think it could be a zero-sum game which equates to me with higher markets. >> bottom line, we're getting real comments from business leaders and regional heads saying higher tariffs in steel projects and aluminum are creating shortages and leading to slowdown. >> business confidence is at historic highs >> i'm reading these fed -- >> but business confidence is at historic highs there's a oneoff headline that could be transitory. >> all right, you're in a double box so you're fighting here's the question, what do you do you're on opposite ends of the spectrum, what do you do >> i look at a market that's been bailed out by technology

and i look at semiconductors and an attack china 2025 policy which is the center of what this administration is trying to do and they're using national security concerns yet again to at worries me especially since the tech sector has they would market afloat? >> steve >> every time the market has sold off on trade concerns the market has ripped back on a positive headline, i don't think this is any different. >> what do we do in terms of technology >> well, facebook is its own animal and i've been wrong for facebook for quite some time when the hearings happened at 1:55 i thought facebook was dead money for the rest of the year rallied 30%. but i look at a micron for example and you see the guidance they gave. not just myself over the last couple weeks when the stock was trading. you say to yourself this is an

overreaction this is a heavily commoditize business to a less cyclical business. >> your entire commentary didn't mention trade war so this is not a trade war stock. >> i understand what's going on. i get the headlines, today is a trade war day. i would submit, though, something is bigger going on i understand the inherent dangers in trade war with that said i think the focus is what tim said, i think the fed is not our ally. >> you look at facebook, alphabet two names in your portfolio. they have no presence in china so are you buying it >> to me it was just momentum stocks overdone. you could say the same about netflix, absolutely clobbered today on nothing so i don't love to dump things on what i perceive as nothing. when things start trading in

integers or tens of integers when you have a stock like alphabet it's indiscriminate selling, that's interesting to me but i think we'll see more of that to come. >> well, whether or not there is a trump put in the market, tech got crushed. our next guest called the tech wreck exactly one week ago "fast money." >> here it is, past two years and here is the trend line in which the index -- and literally we stopped over and over and over at the high and we are right at the high again. my hunch is it's a time to reduce, take profits, does that mean the other parts of the market come back to be determined but this is hot. >> carter is back to double d n downover that call, carter >> it is a little hot. some of the steep moves are a

little less sometime but after that many months and that much money drawn in, you don't expunge that excess in one or two days, the friday/monday selloff has more to go but semis is really sort of one of the areas that within tech it's the beta trade, it's the investment trade and it's the cyclical trade and semis, this is the world semiconductor index, about 138.trillion big names like intel but also samsung, taiwan semi and so forth and what we know is that for the first time in two and a half years, the moving average is flat and on the cusp of turning down it has all the elements of a top, not a good setup but let's move on to the u.s. index otherwise known as the sox while it's not as damaged as the

world index i wanted to point out the importance to the tech sector so what you see is that the relative performance peaked in december even as we've ascended. it's not making progress and here's the key thing about that. in december/january that's when we got back above the.com high so this is the chart we know the peak was a tuesday march 13 and we have been churning at that high. so what we did is got back to that high and we've stumbled so then there's this. last week you had tech down and the, the s&p down and consumer staples and utilities up here's the data.

this has happened 49 times in the history of the data for a probably of 3% and what happens thereafter is the following. one week later, two weeks later, three weeks later when that condition is met this is relative performance of tech to the market tech underperformed. and to wednesday the chart from last week, the bottom panel is relative performance to the market, top panel is the tech sector and we literally have lived within this channel and the presumption is at a minimum we're going to the bottom. >> one needs to consider this not over but just the beginning. >> carter comes over. >> he made a great call last week. >> he deserves that seat. >> welcome so carter, i got confused in the charts that you were showing to

us in terms of tech and s&p being down and staples and utilities being up. >> what we were looking at from today's piece is that if you have the circumstance where money is so aggressively moving out of tech, which is so dominant as a percentage of the s&p and it's going into -- it wasn't just utilities, it was reits as well. what it's said more importantly is not about staples but that tech has underperformed. now those are acting well. you have relative outperformance in staples and that's just a defensive -- truly defensive because growth is defensive until it's not. that's just defensive/defensive. >> so the bottom of the channel on the last chart. >> relative performance. >> how much lower is that to where we are currently >> that's the risk

your channels can only go so far. so it's not about the s&p. it's about the internals of the s&p. internals down 5%, that's the core middle. there is no synchronized global growth that whole bloom is off so we're so dependent on bilge tech names and if you lose those what do you have. >> so it's the internals that concern me because that controls the macro. i know you're a smoothing neckisim in guy. that's 2704. we broke that a wee bit today. markets overshoot, undershoot. am i looking to hold those lows is 2532 is the level that i should be concerned with and the rest is noise around that >> remember, moving average is an automated trendline what we do know is if you're

measuring changes in trend, they're defined by a change in the trend line and the moving averages in the bloomberg world bank index are turning down. the all country world index -- the whole thing, is u.s. is holding everything up and within that it's tech if we lose the stalwart what is do we have. >> what does the smoothing mechanism look like? it's flat. the new york stock exchange deposit is turned down on the value line index is flat. the russell is still rising but the russell is too small to move the need. >> are we at a critical point on the u.s. stock market? >> well, you hear these things, i go to meetings and people are like wait a minute, below 4% unemployment and s&p earnings at 25%, it's a record.

>> maybe we should be paying to the positive. >> the dis/january runup, it priced it all in, markets are smart. >> carter, thank you. >> thanks. >> carter wirth. >> i look at a name like cleveland cliffs, a $9 suite >> fastz pitch. >> we power pitched that. >> incorrigible. >> when we talked about it prior to the tariffs talk and the fundamentals in the steel industry were outstanding. these stocks are taken to the woodshed today if you look at analysts, people have a $10, $11 price target so if you could get away from the noise of tariffs, steel still makes sense here. coming up, bitcoin now in its largest and longest correction since 2015 and a top crypto watcher and bitcoin bull says there are 200 more days of selling ahead. plus, a travel takedown. carnival cutting its full-year forecast and the whole travel complex under pressure could bit a warning sign about

the consumer >> later, guy says the pullback could be creating the perfect buying opportunity for one stock. he'll tell us what it is when he steps to give us his fast pitch. u' le t ndaq market site in new york city times square much more "fast money" right after this people said it just made a mess until exxonmobil scientists put it to the test. they thought someday it could become fuel and power our cars wouldn't that be cool? and that's why exxonmobil scientists think it's not small at all. energy lives here.

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momentum in t momentum momentum in the cruise industry. >> that was arnold donald on "closing bell" talking about momentum in the cruise industry but shares of carnival sliding as they cited increased fuel cost shares of carnival are not the only ones. look at the rest of the cruise lines so far royal caribbean down 11%, norwegian down 8% struggling to stay afloat. >> you didn't say that. >> is this travel takedown a warning sign is it travel specific? we saw bookings holdings down as well. >> i think it's exactly the opposite if there's one subsector in consumer discretionary i like it's travel and hotels not necessarily carnival i think everything else came in. when you look at where unemployment is and where the tax savings are coming through for the $100,000 to $500,000 demographic, stay in luxury, stay overweight.

>> i'm long airlines looking at travel more broadly, looking at a hyatt or marriott, those are kind of rolled over pretty hard so i would have thought like tim that it was specific to carnival. >> for carnival they had higher fuel cost bus higher non-fuel costs as well. >> you can look at morgan stanley, they lowered their number for these cruiselines when you cut guidance the stock gets more expensive in terms of valuation. but you say to yourself how much is priced in for example, royal caribbean which went from $60 when you did that interview a couple years ago with the ceo on "power lunch" to $138 now the stock is off 135%. the question becomes is it priced in? you're close to having it priced in. >> in the cruise line i like this space and it's

underperformed because baears think it's a cyclical business but prices are up, not down. i would think you'll see this sector specifically rally near term with energy coming in still ahead, this stock is up a whopping 140% this year but guy says today could be your best chance to buy it. he's tell up to the plate to explain. i'm melissa lee. here's what else is coming up. >> announcer: the banks are getting crushed and there's a key event that could lead to more selling we'll break it down, plus as stocks get hammered boyne is showing signs of life but a top investor and boyne bull says don't huddle too hard. we're probably in for another 100 days of selling. he'll explain why when run if returns. you always pay

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. welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin bouncing today but on its largest and longest correction in years. at the time they rallied to over $1,000 but then plunge 85% bitcoin has fallen almost 70% from december when the cryptocurrency was shy of 20,000 and has been in a correction for 190 days if you thought things were bad for bitcoin, look at ethereum, down 67% from its all-time high in january litcoin plunged 78%, along with boyne ca bitcoin cash and ripple. our next guest says things are about to get even worse for

crypto and he considers himself a bull spencer bogart from blockchain capital, thank you for being here. >> thank you for having me. >> so this has to do withry depositions? >> i'm super pullish on crypto but does that mean i think things can't go lower? the prices are good right now if i was looking to buy bitcoin but specifically why prices might go lower, if we go back to the summer of '17 when crypto prices were booming, there were about 200 new crypto hedge funds formed so in the summer of 2017 we had the to mission of these funds. now here in the summer of 2018 a lot are hitting the lockup that means the lps are looking at a down 50% year and saying hey, i want to redeem out of that fund. that means forced selling on behalf of these new crypto funds

that popped up. >> when you say artificially lower that implies here it's fairly valued and how would you come up with a fairly valued number for any cryptocurrency? >> a lot of the coins, a lot of the icos are still very overvalued but when i look at boyne i'm very constructive. it has the mind share. most people know about it. so if we think about all of the countries around the world, almost every major country has a fiat onramp where people can use their u.s. dollars, their british pounds to go ahead and buy bitcoin. and no other coin has that kind of distribution. in addition bitcoin is the safest from a regulatory perspective. so while we're not sure which will be declared securities by the s.e.c., bitcoin and near i

don't know -- is one of the only ones it's not like people are hearing about how uber will change transportation no people are riding in the cars today with boyne. >> here's what i think people are having trouble with in terms of the bitcoin bulls saying long term it's a have is that you cited examples as to how bitcoin is proving its use case. we're seeing the number of transactions increase so people are using cryptocurrencies many established companies are using the blockchain but while this adoption is taking place using blockchain technology we're seeing cryptocurrencies as a whole in this prolonged correction what point can we say that blockchain and crypto are two separate entities and maybe people are right that you can believe in blockchain but not

necessarily cryptocurrency. >> >> that's fine. and we certainly invest our cap capital to make sure we have investments on both sides of the table but that is a thesis that derived in 2016 and we've never seen a private blockchain that doesn't have a cryptocurrency function so it remains to be seen and again bitcoin prices are a little bit had been sis a little selling pressure so you'll wait for a better entry point? >> i don't think trying to hit the bottom is a good strategy so i think the right move isn't to try to time the market but average into it. >> spencer, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thanks so much. >> spencer bogart. what do we think about where we are in crypto? >> he's running a business where he's going to average in, take in in flows and not try to time

in on that particular day. spencer has been consistent. he's talked about bitcoin saying it's the vehicle if you look at the correlaons between bitcoin and others, they're the same chart and picking a winner for guys that run a diversified portfolio is arguably the way to do it. >> how are you feeling about crypto you were an early investor >> i'm long. i took money off the table but have some still there. i'm happy to see on a day like today bitcoin is not correlated because i think going back several months it was so maybe that's consistent with ins constitutional money leaving the space, i have to say i don't think that 6,000 is a floor. people talk about it as cost to -- >> yeah, $5900. >> i don't view that as a floor. >> seems like we keep talking about head winds for kroins.

and block china, everyone that has a problem believing in cryptocurrencies wants to believe in black chain the problem is it's the same chart as bitcoin and the other currencies and i think people have to look at it as a blockchain company or ico company versus bitcoin company. coming up, deal talk giving consumer staple stocks a boost in today's down market but can mergers beat the sector? plus guy adami made his way over to the plaza and he's getting ready to pitch one high flying stock he says is headed higher much more "fast money" after isth ed making wine in 1948... [sfx: bottle sounds on conveyor] one bottle at a time. today, we produce nearly 20 million cases a year. chubb has helped us grow for the past 30 years... they helped us prevent equipment problems during harvest and provided guidance when we started exporting internationally. now we're working with them

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welcome back to "fast money. we have a news alert the president just tweeting about harley-davidson. >> the president is en route to south korea where he will stump for the state's governor but before leaving he is tweeting about harley-davidson and the company's announcement this morning in a regulatory filing that shifting production out of the united states in response to retaliatory tariffs to europe. the president tweeting "surprised harley-davidson of all companies would be the first to wave the white flag, i fought

hard for them and they will not pay tariffs selling into the eu which hurt us badly on trade, down $151 billion. taxes just a harley excuse be patient #maga. unclear what he is referencing saying ultimately they will not pay transfers selling into the eu we know the administration said the end game is to lower tariff barriers world wild and harley has been one of those companies that was vocal during tax reform about the positive momentum that tax reform would create in the u.s. economy we're hearing from harley-davidson that they would be moving production out of the u.s. as the company incurs a $100 million charge on these tariffs. melissa? >> kayla tausche in washington, thank you. this is an interesting example

this is a company that was going to close the u.s. plant, consolidate two other u.s. plants and face a slowdown in the united states. >> we love playing this game and it's a confusing game for all of us, especially guy if you look at the ticker hobby, look at that chart you can see this company immediately sold off on guidance and a sense that that was not even a trade war dynamic at that time i repeat that the high end luxury sector which i would put harley-davidson, this is a discretionary item for those that want that high end motorcycle in this country the consumer that buys the harley has never been better. >> but fewer people want a harle harley. >> how can it not be a trade war. i think it has to be a trade war stock, down 18%.

>> or excuse of a trade war. >> i look at it as is it being affected by egg in trif trade war. so it acts like it's a trade war stock therefore it is. >> smells like a duck, the whole thing. >> down 20% before the world trade. >> we can be both trade war and not a trade war. >> it can be both trade war and this the first part of the decline i believe was not a trade war. they should be killing it but the demand for their product has change changed. >> what kind of fat tail are you talking about, guy >> you're talking about secular decli decline since 2013 it was a $70

stock now it's trading at $, today it is a trade war stock. time for an instant replay in december, guy said discovery communications was going to break out. >> reasonable valuation and the hint of mna all around us. i think discovery communications is very interesting, and i think animal planet is one of the best networks out there. >> it was a great call even though somebody on the desk was laughing at guy. the stock is up 40%. what do you do with discovery? >> stay with it. decent eps growth and the entire space is in play so would it surprise you if we had a conversation about discovery being acquired by whomever wouldn't surprise me. >> guy had the hot hand. now you're looking at a name to buy on the dip

guy? >> this is a get up and walk thing. this is a crazy power pitch. >> you saw reasonable valuation with discovery guess what you have reasonable valuation with tenet health care off stock growth of 17%, trading at 10.5 multiple so on valuation this stands by itself. off lot of people betting against in the the form of short interest 23%. what does that mean? a lot of people left the hospitals for dead why? obamacare is probably a big thing, repeal of obamacare, a lot of uncertainty in the space. the big zest this -- walmart concerns walmart getting into the space, humana, everybody getting involved taking over for the hospitals, the hospitals being disenfranchised and maybe there's truth there but if you have a cold, maybe i'm going to urgent care but if i have a bone

sticking out i'm going to the emergency room and that will never change so on valuation the fact they brought in the ceo that's all about business and running this company more efficiently despite the fact that the stock has exploded to the upside i happen to think there's further room. >> question for you. i get the valuation but there is a ton of debt here does that worry you? that has to be part of the short thesis as well. >> look, the balance sheet is going well that plays into the short intere interest i don't think that's the case, they seem to be on somewhat solid footing so stocks could overshoot to the down side for the right reason or the up side. >> there's been a lot of acquisition and strategic activity for the company do you get there's too much going on

>> my concern would be they make an acquisition that isn't creative or doesn't make sense doesn't appear as though that's the case the company seems to be running things better. maybe they were forced to and they got fat and lazy so for the next couple quarters you'll see growth swann on june 6 put out a noted a dressing the things you talked about and i think again although it's had a huge move to the upside, i think it has room to go. >> time to vote, are you buying guy's pitch on tenet health care steve? >> normally i agree but it makes me nervous up 139% year to date i think it's rolling over. but great call on discover. >> i would buy leaps, the debt worries me but if it works it's turbo charged. >> i think that's a -- with guy. okay.

>> we have good news priced in there's a picture of guy with a bone coming out of his rm. >> blood spurting, too. >> you see what i did here at the board? i got a quasi-whomp. >> we'll count that as a full-fledged buy. >> so one buy, two sells are you at home buying or selling guy's pick for thc head over to twitter at "fast money" and vote in our poll. guy is getting killed but you can turn that around. >> unbreak guy's heart plus, can the soup and stocks traders play the ultimate match making game?

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welcome back to "fast money," mmm-mmm merger a merger may be in the works for campbell's soup. what's next? bob a smiss miss san -- pa sanie latest the lower value of brand names in general and higher commodity costs. you can talk all you want until you're blue in the face but don't kid yourself, you cannot combine two companies

experiencing slow or negative growth and magically create a high growth multiple you can't. campbell's earnings have been declining for several years, you can see it right here everybody is aware of it that's why they said while campbell's soup brinbrin s significant synergies, we don't believe it has the presence necessary to justify an acquisition by the company who does remember, kraft heinz, they went to unilever, they were going to lock them up, unilever turned them down but it got the market excited about global deals and soup isn't global enough other big tieups, pepsico, even a privately held company like mars smaller deals are floating around, there was a report on

friday pilgrim's pride might bid for the protein unit of haynes celestial. conagra has approached pin cal foods about a potential deal for some of its frozen food brands here's an idea that might work frozen foods, one of the few real growth spots in the food area. >> bob pisani at the new york stock exchange are deals a reason to buy staples at a time when the markets are more volatile? you may be looking for safety. is that a reason >> if they were cheap i would say yes but they're not. for all the reasons he cited there's a lot of secular pressure here that i don't see it abating and if you look at something like p&g, that's not cheap. those pressures are there, i don't know what nelson peltz could do cost cutting isn't a way to get to the promised land. >> so we thought we'd play match

maker. each trader will pick two names they think would be a perfect match. >> in a similar vein, again mills which has been on its knees, i think buying by walmart. there's synergies in terms of retail products, walmart could sell it internally as their own brand. i like this trade, i think it e's tenth of the market capital. why not. >> why does walmart need a general mills? >> if they want to get into the brands business, why wouldn't they it makes sense, valuation is probably such where if you want to take on amazon at their own game you need to bolster up your bench. >> but amazon isn't buying general mills so if you want to be in amazon. >> amazon is doing their own private label. >> why buy a brand and make it a private label? >> there's overlap

they have convenience stores, there could be accretion and savings there but i think these are brands that people want. i think walmart could do benefit by doing this. i think they could dominate the space if they wanted to. space if they wanted to. >> karen, your you always pay

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it was ugly, so ugly were the results of guys fast pitch, we can't even play toni braxton's "unbreak my heart. this is a new level of sadness so cue the sara mclaughlin, this is puts him in the "arms of an angel" right now the unmarked grave of unloved investment ideas. >> i didn't know you could do that. >> i don't know. >> guy, that's impressive. no one has really -- >> a new low here. new low. >> plumbed the depths. >> final trade time, time. >> back to you aour match making i like general mills as a stand alone. i think as we move a flat rate environment, i like. >> it karen?

>> walmart, the other side of the power struggle stocks down 25 bucks, it's interesting. >> netflix, not a trade war stock. >> ♪ some comfort here >> final trade >> tenet health care, you see it on make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. this show, this show is based on