we could find companies that are going to do well regardless of trade tensions in this mark it is 5:00 a.m., here are the five big things you need to know now stocks selling off around the world. investors kicking off the in the red. leftist andres lopez obrador winning mexico's election. the eeu warning if president targets their automakers elon musk saying they've pushed enough cars off the lines to hit production. lebron james, we'll tell you where he's signing a massive deal it's monday, july 2nd. worldwide exchange begins right

now. ♪ ♪ good monday morning or afternoon from wherever in the world that you may be watching i'm brian sullivan glad to have you with us on worldwide exchange here's the thing your holiday shortened week looking like a rough starts. the markets are closed for wednesday the fourth of july holiday. a slower trading day a lot of the action may happen today. all of that section is to the sell side. -- a lot of that is to the sell side if we end the way down, it would break a trend. remember last week, we learned that today the first trading day of july, historically, is the best trading day of the entire year that is not the story certainly around the world today hong kong closed, but the nikkei in japan and the shanghai composite in china pummeling more than 2% that pushes mainland china stocks into a deeper bear

market they're down 20% off the recent highs. all the markets, including south korea losing more than 2%. and in europe, you guessed it, more red in fact, spain's market is down 6% this year t largely being driven by trade fears and new warnings from europe the eu reporting of new tariffs worth 300 billion if president trump targets their automakers the european union laid out clear plans to respond to potential duties on european-made cars separately, canada striking back with retaliatory tariffs of its own. justin trudeau announcing $12.5 billion in tariffs on u.s. steel and aluminum yesterday everything from ketchup to pizza to dishwasher detergent will face a 10% tax at the canadian border we'll bring you more in the real world impact of these later on in the show when we take you

live to a ketchup factory. do not miss wilbur ross, no doubt a on "squawk box" at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. the other big story remains oil. crude oil is down a bit. but nearly $74 a barrel. it's up 17% in just three months there was big news you may have missed over the weekend. president trump tweeting on saturday, quote, just spoke to king solomon of saudi arabia and explained to him, that because of the turmoil and dysfunction in iran and venezuela, i am asking that saudi arabia increase oil production to make up the difference. prices from too high he has agreed. end quote. but whether the saudis agreed to pump more oil remains the open question this morning. we're being joined from abu dhabi. there is some -- about what was said in a phone call with our

president, correct >> that's correct, brian it's interesting to note that we haven't heard much from saudi arabia in the last 48 hours and nothing to contest what we've heard from the president what we do know is the white house clarified that king salman of saudi arabia essentially said they'd be willing to pump more if necessary we know, of course, they have 2 million barrels in spare capacity if they need to stabilize the markets. they were looking to roll those out in necessary this raises questions about whether this is politics or policy let's listen in to what president trump had to say about opec producers this weekend. >> opec is manipulating and they allowed less than we thought last week. they have to put out another 2 billion barrels in my opinion. because we don't want that happening. don't forget, the one negative to the iran deal, you lose a lot of oil they got to make up for it who is their big enemy iran think of it. iran they have to do it

i have a very good relationship with the king and the crown prince of saudi arabia and the others around. and they're going to to put out more oil >> so that was president trump there essentially seeming to punt off the question of higher oil prices to opec after he had already said he had a productive conversation with king salman over the weekend the saudis keeping pretty mute about this we heard from saudi officials speaking to the "wall street journal," we didn't agree to any specific number here so i think that the question, of course, going forward for markets and for the saudis and iranians themselves, trying to tell the difference between the tough trump talk and the trump action, brian? >> hadley, correct me if i'm wrong, it seemed like what the saudis may have agreed to is not to pump 2 million more barrels a day. but they agreed maybe prices were high and agreed that they could pump more oil. that's how i read it

if you read trump's tweet, it would imply that the saudis agreed to pump more oil. they agreed they had more oil to pump >> i think you've got that exactly right, brian i think what's interesting in the days ahead is whether we'll see some kind of more rollback from the white house in particular what you've seen is not just what's happening with oil and the opec giving credence to the idea that opec has much more control of the market than two years ago we would have thought it's also, of course, ramped up the rhetoric when it comes to what's happening with iran the economy suffering under the potential of more u.s. sanctions and the last few years in particular and really the president's comments seeming to make the relationship between saudi arabia and iran already contentious, even more difficult. >> according to the iranian news services, they sent a letter reminding opec they had a deal about production increases already in place iran coming out with the hard talk as well

thank you. now to the broader markets and your stock investments we got a warning from barron's it was titled why the bull market could end in 2020 that piece says by the year 2020, stocks will have felt the effects of higher rates and tax cuts lets bring in mark ab loney, the president of -- the cover, i love barron's. it said could end. it doesn't say will end in 2020. do you agree with the premise that this bull market maybe has a year life left in it >> i think from the standpoint of the tax cut impact rolling off, that's not going to be an annual event so if we're looking at earnings growth year over year. this year is very strong we're 20, 25% up over the prior year if you look out the following or 2019, late 2019 and 2020, you're going to need another catalyst now, global growth is strong but with all this political instability, tariff talks and

tweets, it becomes less certain. i think that's what the article is focusing on >> i mean, do you agree with the general premise, though? that this bull mark et by any measure is historic in its length, in its time. largely its breadth. >> yeah. there's so much uncertainty. we can't figure out what's going on week to week. we don't know what the headlines are. if we continue to look at global growth, which they say is 3.9% for this year. corporate earnings are up. debt is down consumer is strong the impact of the tax cuts helping main street businesses and consumers. if we focus on that, we look at a strong 2018. the problem is, we have this tariff and tweet talk and that's tnt for the markets. every time trump tweets another political leader has to stand their ground and retaliate and you led the show talking about how we're being hit just this morning. >> yeah. it's not sweet talk. it's tweet talk.

i here your point. you wonder why, this is a president as we've noted who loves to look at the stock market as a report card for him. but you mentioned all those great things we're two days away from the birthday of america. we want to be optimistic everything you mentioned, mark, is in the past do you worry about the future? because we don't know what global growth is going to be if we engage in some multihundred billion or trillion dollar trade war. >> well, that is the risk. but i think that we have an election in november, and and as these tariffs and talks begin to have a negative effect on the market, we're going to see a president who carefully looks at the market he uses it as a proxy, a bragging pitch if the market is hit by his rhetoric, he will tone it down and if we can focus on the fundamentals, i do think it's a good year. i think there's too many good things happening to the economy and he is too politically savvy to talk his way or tweet his way into trouble. >> the one big thing that the

president largely cannot control may be the biggest risk of all higher interest rates and the federal reserve and inflation. there's nothing he can do about that. >> we've talked about jerome powerful before. we see a flattening of the yield curve. that's going to suppress what i think they can be able to do you've got global rates in europe, political instability. all that is going to suppress what jerome powell wants to do here with the yield curb flattening, that is a negative potential for the market and i don't see the fed being as aggressive as they'd like to otherwise be. >> mark, i think i added an extra syllable to your name. you're welcome everybody gets a little extra here. >> good to be here. >> mark, take care have a great fourth of july. thank you very much. >> good to be here. tesla customers counsel u. should be happy. hitting a milestone. kate rogers joining us with more

on tesla. >> brian, good to see you. elon musk says the company met a self-imposed deadline to produce 5,000 model 3s in a week he sent an e-mail thanking them for their hard work. he says we did it. what an incredible job by an amazing team i think we became a real car company. the final car reportedly rolled off the assembly line at tesla's factory in fremont, california around 5:00 a.m. on sunday the company has been under pressure to deliver on the model 3, which is seen by analysts as a key to tesla becoming a mainstream producer of electric vehicles now, tesla's twice missed targets on the model 3 almost a year after it went into production musk pulled out all the stops in recent weeks tesla built a giant tent outside its factory to house a third assembly line. workers spent long shifts on the plant and musk slept on the floor to ensure they met the deadline tesla expects to produce about 6,000 model 3s a week.

look at the stock. up almost 5%. >> the market likes this kind of news we'll see if that lasts throughout the day kate, see you back here for trending stories >> thank you dan lobe is turning up the heat on necessarily. urging the company to split into three divisions. he's telling his board to be sharper, bolder and faster in the company. loeb is criticizing nestle for a lackluster effort to revamp strategy nestle initiated a large share buyback, a marketing deal with starbucks and investment in blue bottle coffee. however, the stock is down year to date. those efforts failing to satisfy investors or one big investor. the other individual stock stories include dell sources say the company is near a deal to become public again. it plans to announce as soon as today it will buy a tracking stock that mirrors the performance of the m ware, dell's cloud software unit

that will pay a 9 billioned divide dividend there's a tracking stock that's little known, dell will effectively buy that stock as a did he facto, if you will. ipo or reverse merger with itself 5:12 in the morning. have another cup of coffee. meantime, interpublic is reportedly close to a deal to by action i don't know marketing solutions unit for about $2 billion. ax i don't mean may explore sale of the deal. nissan scrapped the sale of battery business to gsr capital after the chinese investment firm was unable to pay for the unit nissan's electric car battery operations include factories in japan, tennessee and the uk. all right. as we note it's 5:13. we're getting started here worldwide exchange on deck ab extreme leftist won the mexico presidential election

we'll tell you why washington and you need to take notice. lebron james out of cleveland for the second time. he's headed west we'll tell you about his $154 million deal in los angeles. but first, as we kick off the new quarter, let's get a look at the top performing international markets. last quarter congratulations to the ftse of england. you nudged out singapore as the best global market let's see if your world cup team n awell back after this.

happy monday i didn't see the flag. it's not singapore that finished second to england, it was the other england. australia, came in a close second apologies to our australian friends. here's how things are setting up it's looking ugly. dow futures indicated an open of down 124 points as of the nasdaq also in red. it may have had something to do with this. breaking overnight, we found out that extreme leftist andres manual lopez obrador did indeed win mexico's presidential election we're in no doubt, pretty big implications. >> particularly for the united states, brian. as you said, the guy who goes by

the nickname a.m. lo is going to be andres manual lopez obrador, made his speech last night declared the winner very soon after the polls closed and got concession calls from his opponents. as you mentioned brian, he is a leftist and a national list. he won in a landslide, getting more than 53% of the vote. continued in mexico. the establishment parties were almost completely wiped up inauguration on december 1st we're going to wait and see over the next couple of months to see what positions he stakes out there you can see, 54% of the vote now with 33% of it counted thus far the two establishment parties who had been in power for nearly 100 years were getting much, much smaller percentages he ran on a much more centric platform this time around. his third run for presidency instead ran on anti-corruption, which really helped him out. president trump tweeting around

11:00 last night congratulations to andres manuel lopez obrador in becoming the next president of mexico i look very much forward to working with him there is much to be done in both the united states and mexico to see how the markets -- we have to watch the mexican peso as amlo became for -- the peso had relaxed. the peso moved higher. i did not stay up. i was asleep for that speech, as i suspect you were too he did not mention president trump or nafta at this point that's going to be crucial what u.s. investors want to know how does he feel about nafta, how is he going to negotiate st. it and what is he going to do with the oil reforms he threatened to roll them back completely he's since softened that position as well let's see what he really means when he gets into office. >> politicians around the world, michelle, don't get elected by promising to take away things. they get elected by promising to

give people things he's made a lot of promises. here's the thing mexico is in a fiscal crisis it had more murders last year than any time in 20 years. one wonders if simply the money and political will exists to do anything he's promising. >> that's crucial. he's promising free schooling, double pensions for the elderly. lots of big spending he claims he's going to pay for that by eliminating corruption what he can do about crime at this point, hard to know as you point out, the murder rate is very high. we can show a bar chart showing a dramatic rise in homicides if the numbers continues, this will be another record year. he had said at one point maybe amnesty for low-level drug kingpins or drug-related offenses that didn't go over well he's softened that as well what he can actually do about crime, which is related to drugs and also political

assassinations remains to be seen. >> the third time he's run, third time is a charm i guess. when you don't win, keep promising more stuff and eventually you're going to win i suppose. michelle, we'll see you. mexico, big news. thank you. in other international political news, germany's angela merkel facing a showdown of her own and with her own partners. the top ranking germ al politician promising to resign the increasingly messy state of the german messy states. willem. >> seehofer is the man to watch. he's the interior ministry and the head of csu parties. that's one of the two parties in coalition with angela merkel's cdu. he's the one who in talks with party members yesterday. that in munich threatened to resign over a migration issue focused on germany's border and the controls, hoping allowing

people into the country who have already acclaimed asylum elsewhere in europe. that was the reason that angela merkel traveled to brussels twice last week for an emergency summit with a dozen different leaders and again thursday and friday, the focus of the summit in brussels was about trying to find a solution to this very vexing issue of migration in europe seehofer not happy with the deal she brought back from brussels at this point, it's uncertain what happens next. they will meet today it could be the future of her chancellorship at stake, brian. >> certainly could this is a big moment for the eu's biggest economy willem marks in england. a lot to do on a busy monday morning. what are the biggest risks to your money we've put out a twitter poll we asked you what is the biggest market risk for the second half of the year, oil, trade and trump, interest rates or there's nothing to worry about

stocks will go up. go to at sully nbc or check out our tweet page and vote. out tesee what everybody else thghlar on in the show your morning rbi why did i want a crest 3d white smile?

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it was a big part of this morning's other headlines. let's get those with frances rivera in new york city with the latest in air conditioning frances? >> in air conditioning you're right it's sticky out there. much of the nation is in the midst of a dangerous heat wave this morning just as the july 4th hol kiday approaches. temperatures in the triple digits prompting heat warnings and advisories for millions of americans. many people heading to the water to beat the heat, whether that be the lake, the beach or a good old sprinkler. the dangerous heat fueling california wildfires forcing mandatory evacuations in a rural area near sacramento more than 1200 firefighters are battling the yolo county fire. shifting winds as of last night, the fire grown to 32,000 acres and only 2% contained. actor adam sandler gone from wedding singer to wedding crasher. he made newlyweds big day more special when he stumbled across

them posing for wedding photos and decided to join in on the fun. the couple, both fans of sandler, they were thrilled by the cameo. look, he's wearing -- he has a husband fash there at first glance -- mustache there. they find out he's adam stand letter and say go ahead. >> if you're going to have somebody do it, you have memories for the rest of your life. >> and make some news too. >> and be on national television frances rivera thank you very much. on deck. canada striking back at president trump and many american food workers may be the ones to feel the impact. coming up, we'll take you to kraft heinz's main u.s. plant. with more on how a ketchup taffaympt eranobri m iacamic js. olay ultra moisture body wash

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be. it is a sea of rid markets across the globe selling off markets. what you need to know as we kick off the second half of the year. trade wars tariffs between canada and the united states will hit everything from whiskey to ketchup and maybe jobs lebron james taking his talents to seal beach. a monster deal taking king james to the bright lights of los angeles. it is monday, july 2nd the second half of the show tips off right now. let your hair down, it's so

hot. when you have a man bun, it sweats good morning, thanks for being with us on cnbc. i'm brian sullivan hope you're having a great start to your day wherever you may be. a look at the start of the day it's anything but a great looking day. if you own stocks, it could be another ugly monday. the dow futures indicating a drop of 137 points at the opener remember, ironically, we learned this last week at the first trading day of monday historically is the best single trading day of the year for the stock market going back like 50 years according to the almanac. if this holds, that will end that historical streak let's tie everything together and bring in michael baf us. >> thanks for having me. >> you saw the barron's cover. why this bull market is done in a year and a half. we're asking the market guests do you agree with the premise that the bull market is over effectively in 18 months >> i don't think it's over in 18 months look x we have a lot of

political unrest political turmoil. let's focus bag on fundamentals. economy is growing about 4%. companies are coming in with really strong earnings we're in the biggest tech boom possibly in the history of our world. >> it's true but could that also be a negative because as goldman sachs put out a note last week that basically half of the s&p's gain in the last year has been about five stocks. literally, amazon and netflix and facebook they're so big that they're literally the donkey pulling the entire market cart does that pour worry you at all that it's so narrow? >> think of the flip side of that pe's are very low. everything is positive for the market on the other companies. the companies pulled the markets up, i think you're going to see the tide rise. >> is this me being a cynical old newscaster you say things are so good, how much better can they get that's kind of how it feels.

>> people have forgotten, this tax bill, tax cut, that's very positive for the economy it's going to outweigh the tariff tax that we're seeing now. >> you think so? >> i think so. >> it's a psychological thing as well, isn't it, michael? i'm sure your clients call and say there's talk of a trade war on cnbc. i've made a bunch of money with you over the last five to ten years. why not just go to cash and i'll sleep well at night? >> that's a very good question. >> are you getting that question >> that happens very often but it also happens on days when the market is down a little bit. on days it's up, people forget about t it's very psychological. at the end of the day, fundamentals outweigh -- >> even with fundamentally higher interest rates? that seems to be the -- trump has even trumped fed which is hard to believe the fed is raising rates we vbt behaven't been in a risig interest rate environment in basically 14 years. >> look at the flip side that is one of the scarier parts

of this market is rising rates. also, the economy globally is fragile. as you see what happened in mexico this morning. what's happening in germany. those are two of the biggest risks in these markets is two of the biggest risks are rising rates and geo political turmoil that turns into affecting companies fundamentally and how much money they can make. >> flip it around, i guess you wouldn't think it, given all the red lately but the nasdaq and s&p are still positive for the year. >> correct >> is there any hope in that with all this stuff going on, the markets have been able to hold on. like the wobbly horse trying to cross the finish line. >> that's true i keep beating this orse i'm surprised people -- >> it's still running forsome stocks. >> earnings are very low right now. pes are very low and earnings very strong. companies are making money who would have thought that the economy was going to grow at 4% or close to 4% this year nobody if you asked that 18 months ago, nobody would think that. >> except for the president

himself. >> he would say pointing back it a tweet. optimistic view there. i did my best to rattle you. you didn't get rattled, michael. michael bapis of high tower bapis group. kate rogers back with more. the sports -- everyone is buzzing about lebron james one of the nba's biggest stars will be taking his talent to california a free agent, he will leave cleveland cavaliers for the l.a. lakers lebron will get $154 million over four years to join the lakers brian, i don't watch sports. >> you've heard of him though. >> he's pretty good. >> he's got a bright future that kid. >> i like watching really, really talented people at the top of their game. there's no one better than lebron. >> is that going to be enough with the lakers with the supporting cast to trump our friends the houston rockets and the golden state warriors? what's your prediction, kate rogers >> i like the warriors too, because i like steph curry and i

love his wife. >> who are you rooting for in the world cup? >> i'm only basketball, no soccer. >> only basketball no football. >> no regular football or soccer football. >> no filter on the incredible videos san francisco skies turned an eerie shade of orange because of the wildfires. they're 75 miles north, but the smoke and ash reached the city emergency services have advised san franciscans to reduce heavy outdoor exertion but not in immediate danger for air quality. thank goodness for that. drake dropped a new album called scorpion. the release shattered, one-day streaming records including spotify, amazon music. the staggering numbers, 132 streams on spotify and 170 million on apple i would love to see how much cash that converted into how much does he make? does he make a billion dollar or

six bucks? >> exactly i have no clue i didn't look into that. i'm usually on top of these things. >> i was listening to jason isabelle the 400 unit. cumberland gap check it out do it. chris stapleton. worldwide exchange, the second half playbook are there investments for you to make money in, in retail that's right can you make money in retail believe it or not our guest says yes. canada hitting back america with big-time tariffs of its own. what it could mean for manufacturing and food jobs in the united states. we'll tell you why as we take you to a kraft heinz plant r stick around

let's talk shopping. traditionally the second half of the year is -- we have a trade war which could weigh on the economy. courtney is here with more. >> from the summer on is where you're going to find the three biggest online shopping holidays, amazon's prime day historically in july, black friday and cyber monday both in november this year analysts predict that prime day will pay a big part in back to school sales for many parents. some wait until the fall also, they're predicting the prolonged school shopping will continue a strong retail cycle that actually began just after last year's back to school season ended

next up, it's time for retailers to deck the halls. last year's holiday spending was stronger than expected making the bar that much higher. is president trump, china, europe, canada threaten tariffs, holiday sales could end up in a trade war as a casualty. retail groups say tariffs are a paid tax that ultimately is borne by the consumers if americans do pay more for goods in the second half of the year, that could ultimately cut down on sales. meaning tariffs could be the grinch that steals christmas brian? >> that's not a nice way to end. courtney, christmas and grinches courtney reagan, thank you very much let's bring in rogers. you remain optimistic about the consumer and retailer in the second half of the year. why? >> the grinch is not going to steal christmas. the tariffs aren't going to steal christmas. if we do have an impact from the

tariffs, it will be compressing margins, not raising prices to the consumer, which could be a little scary there's just not enough there unless we see a whole heck of a lot come through on the tariff side. >> you know it's funny you say that we were talking about china and the devaluation of their currency that would be the greatest gift to the u.s. consumer there may be an upside to the trade war talk because products may get cheaper due to currency swings, correct? >> i don't think the tariff side is all that frightening. we're moving a lot of the kind of stuff we talked about out of china. it's going to vietnam, sri lanka. it was in america, mexico, now china and capital goes where it's priced least. bangladesh or back to mexico >> that would accelerate the trend. we won't see rising prices as a result of this i personally think this is a negotiating tactic and it will probably work itself out even if it doesn't, i don't think it's going to change that much. >> every mall, every store from

philadelphia to boston that you have seen that i've seen is packed but this is not america. america is a lot bigger than the northeast corridor any indication of how the rest of the country is doing? >> business is very, very good may was probably the best month for my kind of retail sales that we've seen all year. it may be the best month we do see all year because may last year was slow. and so we've seen this good surge. june hasn't been as good as may. but may was very good. when we get to the back half, come on, everybody is working, there's more jobs than people looking for jobs wages are rising the tax cut wasn't in last fourth quarter it will be in this fourth quarter. the retailers are pushing that tax cut back to the consumer >> but this is largely, though, jan, not to interrupt. here's the problem with retail you can make the arguments about the consumer a lot of them have been dumb they've gone in good economies and we're seeing bankruptcies

because they haven't managed invent inventory. the wrong product mix. it's not just about one side the store has to not be run by anyone come pops >> they got to be much less that way in the fourth quarter of the past year. inventories were rile, really good assortments were really good we got online right. buy online and pick up in store. we saw a strong fourth quarter because we ran the business better that won't change the fact that more stores will close this year than ever in history more bankruptcies in retailers >> that's what i'm talking about. despite the positive stuff you mentioned. some of our viewers and listeners are thinking, i like what that nif en guy is saying, but give us a trend, a store a theme, somehow where we can profit off what you're saying? >> i'm a huge fan of basically all of the strong brands strong brands win. third party sellers of brands

lose michael kors is going to have a good back half and a good next 18 months. they're a winner pvh. >> van hughes enment. >> coach not the carole king album. >> i think ralph lauren is a winner >> you think rl. they never do stuff wrong, do they it's degrees of correct? >> they got overdistributed. they had issues with silos and running their various brands they're fixing all of that they're behind tapestry and they're behind michael kors getting all that done. >> michael kors and tapestry largely compete with each other. can they both win? >> oh, yes as long as the consumer is strong the consumer is going to be strong we're seeing a resurgence finally again in accessories that always happens when you start to see a change in fashion. denim is coming back the tops that go with denim are

coming back. therefore, the shoes and the bags are athletic is not as strong as it was. we're seeing this return to more real clothes even a return to investment dressing clothes and we're seeing the biggest growth in resale that's ever happened. it's a $25 billion business. only 9 million people shopped retail in 2016 44 million people shopped the resale business in 2017. >> you can finally throw out the lycra pants you were walking around in. >> i got rid of that stuff and moving on to investment dressing. >> tapestry, kors, nike as well. jan, have a great day. have a good fourth love your tie. it's got like eagles on. the risks for the year what is the biggest risk to the market is it trump, is it oil, is it trade, interest rates or nothing because stocks are going to go up we'll bring you the answers and show how you responded in our rbi. plus, we'll take you to a kraft

heinz factory and auk about the real world impact of tariffs on ketchup. there are jobs at stake. stick around why did i want a crest 3d white smile?

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to improve short-term memory. prevagen. the name to remember. welcome back joe concern inback from global travels. >> we're going to talk about what's coming up after the time we spent together. sully. >> we had a nice night. >> we had a moment five stars >> i laughed i cried. >> tell me if i'm wrong. i was over there for a while i love it as a tourist when i come back here, i'm glad i live here. i love it here i don't know if i can live over there. for good permanent. i guess i could. but i really like it here. i like it here a lot, sully. >> i like it here, too vienna is a well-run town. >> it is. >> we talked about the

differences. people in budapest think they're a little bit buttoned up anyway, bry, you told me when you got back, you were going to fly the flag did you some some flag flying. this is a great country or were every one of your efforts thwarted on the set? >> no, no. i had an eagle on my shoulder. eating apple pie, watching baseball the flag was flown we did talk a lot about the mexican elections and germany. otherwise, the flag was flown. >> it's a big landslide. >> it was a mandate as they say. >> mandate for what? >> his third time to win third time it the charm, joe. >> pushing out the establishment. i don't know what it means for the private sector down there. other latin american countries have also in recent years moved a little bit that direction as well but the -- the evidence isn't great for when you -- anyway, we've got wilbur ross to talk

about that today right at 7:00 sully. >> yeah. >> that's going to be a big interview, joe >> also china tariffs and wto talk there's a lot going on what happened with -- the supreme court last week. were you here for that >> i was a little bit here for that we missed you for that >> couple of decisions came down >> bad week for certain -- >> here's the thing, joe we got to go no matter what happens, we'll always have vienna, you and i. >> that's not taken. we'll have paris is taken. vienna is not taken. a lot of news there. in trade news, china stopping at 10% tariff on imp t imported ketchup seema mody is there with on what it could do to manufacturers and jobs >> hey, brian. canada unveiling a wide range of tariffs on a number of u.s.

products it is the 10% tariff on ketchup which has taken aim at kraft heinz and its largest ketchup plant behind me. that's got residents of fremont, ohio, quite concerned. >> kraft heinz is a very big impact on this economy in fremont, ohio. it is the mother ship of all kraft heinz. it makes the most ketchup in the entire united states very big >> these tariffs are a double whammy hitting kraft heinz based in pennsylvania and the largest ketchup plant, here in ohio. two politically important states for president trump. just last week, republican senator patrick toomey in a senate hearing said he's worried the tariffs will result in this ohio plant shutting down >> the solution for them to be able to continue to sell their product in canada would be to shut down their u.s. factory and

move to canada then they wouldn't be subject to these tariffs. >> kraft responding saying we are opposed to any change that impacts our ability to seamlessly move our products across the borders it's still unclear how kraft will respond to these tariffs from canada. will it absorb the cost or pass on the cost to consumers overall, canada is a big growth market for kraft heinz jpmorgan saying making about $2.2 billion last year in canada brian? >> thanks. that's a county that largely got our president elected. >> sure did. >> lot of jobs at stake of the we'll see what the folks think about the tariffs. seema mody, in fremont, ohio. founder of kkm financial welcome. you've got trump, trade, oil, global politics. you've got all this stuff. to you, what is the one or two most important things for our viewers and their money this week >> well, sully it is a new week

and a new quarter. a rough six months but this week we're focused on this trade tariff conversation. why we're so focused, even though it's only $34 billion we're talking about on friday, july 6th being imposed on chinese products the idea is it could morph the posturing and positioning. like we walk into an old country buffet, there's a lot of different ways to attack this. if you look at 2017 we were at trade deficit. 552 billion. by and large, 60% was china. this rhetoric we're talking about is happening this week, there's going to be more foyer woorks than the fourth of july. >> the biggest gain was the volatility, the vix, i'm not a van of it but people are buying and selling it like it's an instrument it's up 17%. if you don't know what's going to happen, is buying volatility the best way to hedge your bets, literal

literally? >> no. but you have to understand the vix. it just went over 17 it's back at 16.5 in the spot price. a 16 vix sully means the expectations of an s&p realized move or what the market will do is going up or down one percent. if we see a 32 vix, we're talking anxiety and fear 2% move up or down it's an opportunity to hedge portfolios or rotate if you look at the beat-up sectors, we look internationally. some of the etfs we look at, they had a hard six months to start 2018. >> into what it makes me nervous that people are getting so safe with their money. >> what have we seen it rotate into tech look at the nasdaq 100 sensational year after a phenomenal 2017. i think if you have tech exposure and some of the big names, these fang names, we talked about it earlier, they

have attracted allured global assets if you have an overallocation or a high tilt in the portfolio, two tech names, it's time -- goldman sachs has had a rough year if you've seen volatility pick up the back half of the year, they'll profit from the trading they typically do so well at. >> jeff killburg, the fang stocks still look good have a good fourth. >> have a good fourth. best to you and the family. interesting of the day, not what you think but what you -- but what you think what is the biggest risk for the second half of year, higher oil, trade/trump, rising interest rates or calm down, stocks are going up anyway. there's no risk. half of you, 50% said trade and trump. 23 of you were bullish said calm down, stocks are going up 21% said higher rates.

just 6% said higher oil. hmm. i think it's rates ve sctacar, random ha apeul day see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next odors with softp and release them back into the room. so, try febreze fabric refresher. febreze finds odors trapped in fabrics and cleans them away as it dries. use febreze every time you tidy up to keep your whole house smelling fresh air clean. fabric refresher even works for clothes you want to wear another day. make febreze part of your clean routine for whole home freshness.

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good morning stocks under pressure. the playbook for the markets and president trump's trade policy straight ahead wilbur ross. talk to him about that wto. it's all open for discussion tesla shares up sharply after elon musk said that the company did, in fact, hit its production target for the model 3 lebron is head west. the akron hammer agreeing to take $154 million over four years to play for the l.a. lebron, l.a. la bron lakers it's july 2nd, 2018.

"squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq markets. it's a hot market at times square i'm andrew ross sorkin joe kerr anyone is back in town. becky quick is hopefully enjoying time off in the heat. look at u.s. equity futures. dow will open off. we'll explain why. nasdaq off about -- the hang seng was closed for a public holiday. the nikkei and shanghai markets down falling more than 2% take a quick look at european equities we'll show you there what's going on as well across