oil prices on the rise again a new opec country not named saudi arabia now the big focus president trump taking steps to keep a big chinese tech company from entering the american market. china's central bank is looking to ensure investors that it will keep its currency stable even as it falls. facebook under fire, the s.e.c., ftc, fbi all now reportedly investigating facebook. and glencore shares falling after receiving a u.s. subpoena regarding money laundering. and manhattan real estate suffering its worst second

quarter since the financial crisis it's tuesday, july 3, 2018, "worldwide exchange" begins right now. probably bruce's worst song, but you can see a theme today. see if you can pick something up on this july 3rd good morning i'm brian sullivan thank you for being with us on this holiday-shortened day the stock market closes early today. we have a 1:00 p.m. close so it could be a volatile few hours as traders settle positions heading into the holiday a fairly positive set up ahead of yesterday's remarkable comeback for the dow up about 73 points right now we opened down 200 yesterday and finished higher. the benchmark ten-year at 2.87%.

in asia, japan down and china up japan may be stinging by that insane comeback by belgium in the world cup yesterday. and in europe, markets are higher most markets aside from us are open around the world tomorrow so things certainly could still happen oil is a big story and getting bigger if ko crude oil back up again. crude oil back up above $74 a barrel libya declaring an act of god on oil. they're down about 400,000 barrels per day. that's not a number the market can absorb easily. if you're not a daily watcher of oil prices, this is a five-year chart of oil this is the last year and a half we are back to levels we have not seen in nearly four years. the last time that wti traded crude was above 75 was back in the fall of 2014 that has gasoline prices as well

rising keep an eye on what you're paying at the pump rising oil prices are annoying here, but they can be devastating to other countries especially when the u.s. dollar is rising at the same time this may add another wrinkle in what could be the biggest political risk in the world right now. not china, maybe germany let's bring in larry mcdonald, editor of the bear traps report. larry, overnight kind of quietly the german chancellor, angela merkel, made a hard turn to the right. she made a political deal for transit centers for migrants you have been talking about this why do you think this could be a market risk as well? >> because if you think of germany, it's not like in the united states where you have republicans and democrats. you have, like, five, six different coalition partners, wannabe partners and other people who don't want to be partners it's a complex situation

but this is really the crystalizing of a difficult situation. when you crystalize the reality on the ground what she did last night is essentially taking -- similar platform to trump. when you have detention centers that you're trying to -- bureaucracies -- >> let's call them transit centers. we're not allowed to say that. but at the end of the day when you have bureaucracies trying to condition or control or manage large groups of human beings, only bad things can happen at first of all. second of all, italy and other partners like austria have not even approved this that's number one. at the end of the day, italy's debt to gdp has gone from 60% to 130 and these migrants are

coming through italy mr. vsalvini is not happy with this proposal. and the last part is the left in germany, the spd the more liberal people, they're watching merkel go from open borders to donald trump. they're not happy. >> we have to clear this up. a lot of viewers, it's early for most of our audience effectively angela merkel basically wanted to have not an open border but nearly an open border policy. the hard-right in germany said no, turn people away at the borders. so they settled on a compromise where they'll create transit or detention centers at the border. but this is a shift right for ms. merkel, is it not? >> absolutely. her coalition -- this is a coalition between cdu and csu that has existed for more than 50 years it's breaking apart. bottom line for markets this is

a historic moment. you're talking about a disintegration of the merkel government right before our eyes i don't think they make it through the summer then europe has a problem. the glue of europe is decaying merkel has been brilliant, but able to control this, keep things together. without merkel there, you're talking about a europe with much more buy fifurcation of power. >> the cart may be before the horse. she's still there. but i want to move on and talk about something else i called it the economic bazooka for china. they're trying to keep their official currency stable, but there's an offshore high the these -- chinese currency that is trading when that line goes up, it's inverted, that means the chinese currency is weakening. there's been a dramatic weakening of the chinese

off-shore yuan in the last couple of weeks. why does this matter the situation in germany and china is so weak that it's inflaming the dollar, and it created a dollar surge and created a situation in china where the currency is weakening at the fastest pace since 2015 and you're talking about an emerging market contagion that everyone said three weeks ago was argentina, brazil, it's contained. by the way, it's not it's coming into mainstream em now and is inflamed by the situation in germany and in the uk with the pound. >> larry mcdonald heading into the fourth of july weekend some light reading for the fourth of july holiday hope you and your family have a great one.

see you soon thank you. >> thank you. to your top corporate story. more trouble for facebook. reports say the u.s. government is taking a closer look at facebook's privacy practice as more disturbing stories arise about who it gave data to. leslie picker has more >> just when you thought it was weeks since you heard the words cambridge analytica. that scandal not going anywhere. the federal investigation into facebook's data sharing has broadened according to the "washington post." the fbi, s.e.c. and federal trade commission joined the justice department's probe into cambridge analytica. the post says the investigation focuses on what facebook has reportedly -- reported publicly about the data it shared with cambridge, whether those statements square with the facts and whether it made complete and timely disclosures to the public and investors. in a statement facebook says we are cooperating with officials in the u.s., uk and beyond we provided public testimony, answered questions and pledged

to continue our assistance as their work continues this report comes as facebook suffers another privacy mishap the company says a software bug unblocked some people who were blocked by another user, meaning they could see posts from the person who blocked them and reach out to them via messenger. facebook says the bug affected 800,000 users, and was live for about a week at the end of may and early june >> it is a big story certainly one we have to watch this is an important stock it's a top ten holding in more than 125 etfs. >> billion users >> so it matters for the macro market see you in a bit. president trump taking another swing at china, this time over mobile phones. his administration is set to deny china's biggest cell phone company access to the u.s. market the government moved to block the company from offering services recommending that the application be rejected over national security concerns

shares of china mobile falling to their lowest level in four years. that's not deterring another chinese company from wanting to come here. xiaomi is pressing ahead with its plans to enter the american market it says the american connections should help it avoid the political resistance that some peers are facing xiaomi is making products compatible with u.s. cellular networks glencore shares are plunging they are down more than 11% right now. they received a subpoena from the u.s. justice department asking for records about the company's compliance with money laundering and bribery laws. the documents we late to glencore's businesses in nigeria, the congo and venezuela. tesla's chief engineer is officially stepping down after

taking a leave of absence in may. field joined tesla from apple in 2013 last year he was given oversight of production until ceo elon musk resumed that role in spring shares of tesla lower. shares of herman miller are surging. they reported better than expectexpect expected fourth quarter results. hyundai motor shares lower today due to a vote to strike. bitcoin or bust. the crypto market feeling pain recently we'll bring you the stat on how many cryptos have gone it's a number you have to hear. and samsung phone users, your phone may be doing something without your permission, that could g yetou in hot water with friends and

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we all want to know you know, the new, new thing.

with xfinity's retail stores, you can now see the latest. want to test drive the latest devices? be our guest. want to save on mobile? just ask. want to demo the latest innovations and technology? do it here. come see how we're making things simple, easy, and awesome. plus come in today and ask about xfinity mobile, a new kind of network designed to save you money. visit your local xfinity store today. at the office and says bob, how many cryptocurrencies have failed over the past year? you will now know the answer more than 800. more than 800 cryptos have failed or are worth less than one penny. bitcoin is down about 70% since the record high 20,000 last

year arjun kharpal has more we're not calling it a bust, but we should call it a beatdown >> it's definitely a beatdown. what we've seen over the past few months since bitcoin hit that 20,000 record high is there's a lot of issues with the exchanges. many have been hacked. we've seen the s.e.c. probing some exchanges over price manipulation that knocked confidence from investors in the space at the same time you have regulatory uncertainty around the world. china are clamping down hard on cryptocurrency trading practices. then you have other countries like switzerland and the uae and the middle east who have been open to cryptocurrencies there's a lot of uncertainty on the global stage, that's knocking confidence in the space. you mentioned 800 cryptocurrencies have died those projects known as initial coin offerings, they have not lived up to the promise and

they're out of the market. is bitcoin dead? who knows, there's still a lot of optimism in the market that the problems can be fixed and more investors can get involved. >> thank you see you soon. let's talk more about the cryptocurrency markets first off, the headline for me was not that 800 cryptocurrencies have failed or are worth less, it's that there were 800 the market got stupid. you have to admit. some of these should have never existed. >> yeah. let's take a step back and look at what happened the market was overheated. bitcoin was trading at a 2500 handle then it rallied to 20,000. it went up eight fold within the span of six months >> there were more coin-base accounts than e-trade accounts >> speculation were driving prices, prices driving valuations the market entered a phase that

was not sustainable. now you're seeing a bit of a correction, which is good a correction is a good thing it's what we saw 18 years ago with internet and tech companies. >> >> 70% is more than a little bit. >> this is a brand-new asset class. bitcoin had two major corrections already so far 2013, 2014, and it was at about the 70%, 80% correction levels which is what we're approaching. we take more of a long-term view with the digital asset market. we think this correction was necessary. it's a good thing. >> let me ask you the question that arjun brought up at the end of his piece is bitcoin -- bitcoin dead >> bitcoin is not dead there's a host of developers there's a number of investors that have ample interest in seeing this move forward

>> there's enough institutional support? >> enough institutional support. >> that there will be a put somewhere in the market where the big buyers start to step in? the question where is that point? is it around 6,600 >> i think the next six to 12 months will be interesting for this marketplace you're seeing the ecosystem evolve everyone is talking about a bitcoin etf, that's the holy grail. if that's launched at some point in the next six to 12 months -- >> by the way, they're still looking for the holy grail >> i described the crypto commodities as railroads of the 1870s. there were hundreds of them. you're left with four or five. let's bring that chart back up we have xrp, ripple, lite diz

coin, are thewill those four ale it is there room for four is there room for ten? is there room for one? >> that's a great question i don't like to give explicit predictions like that. i'm very bullish on bitcoin. just given its market cap and given the investor community behind it and the developer community behind it. >> bitcoin is the one. if you're putting your money somewhere in the cryptos, you think the biggest one, the most well known one is the one. >> i look purely at the numbers. bitcoin has the largest market cap. it has the most liquidity. if i was to predict where an institution was to come in first, bitcoin is number one >> it has been a big story appreciate the view. a lot of people out there that back the currency, appreciate the optimism have a great holiday >> thanks. still to come, real estate worries. new york city just did something

that it has not done since the financial crisis we'll talk about what this could mean for the overall market. it's 5:00 somewhere, even if it's 5:19 a.m. here. there is a bear in a hot tub drinking liquor. we'll bring you video of it. olay ultra moisture body wash

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welcome back that's a beautiful site. the u.s. capitol the texas capitol is slightly higher than that it's texas in news out of that town, secretary of state mike pompeo is traveling again so north korea this week. he is set to meet with kim jong-un. the july 5th visit will be the second known gathering between pompeo and kim the pair are meeting to continue the ongoing and important work of denuclearization on the korean peninsula top u.s. treasury and state department officials are also set to visit the gulf states this week to discuss imposing sanctions on iran. hadley gamble has more >> good morning, brian this is nothing less than the u.s. government effectively circling the wagons and looking to tighten the screws further on

iran let's listen in to what the state department's director of policy had to say. >> our focus is on getting as many countries importing iranian crude down to zero as soon as possible we are also working with oil market participants including producerers and consumers to ensure market stability. banking sanctions will also snap back on november 4th and we'll enforce these provisions to lock up iran's assets overseas and deny the iranian regime access to its hard currency all of this is as the iranian president is in europe for the next few days. he's trying to drum up support and save the nuclear deal, he says all of this putting saudi arabia in a bit of an awkward position, because you have them on the one hand tied to that opec-led agreement that they were pushing for from the beginning in terms of production, but also means something for their foreign policy as well because cutting

off iranian crude can help them when it comes to what's happening with hezbollah and in yerm e yemen. the united states looking to tighten the screws further on iran brian? >> watching oil because of this. hadley gamble, thank you let's check your other morning headlines outside the world of money and business. frances rivera has more on that >> hope your plans are all inside today because the heat wave gripping the northeast continues this morning more than 90 million people are under heat advisories or warn g warnin warnings today's heat index values could be as high as 104 degrees, that's enough to cause multiple heat related illnesses area of greater new york city are on track for a six-day het wav heat wave. the heat is also fueling wildfires out in the west.

60,000 acres are on fire with 5% containment. it's causing an orange haze over san francisco leading to air quality advisories. how much can you earn without a college degree how about $93,000. that's the amount of an operator of a nuclear power reactor it's the highest paying job you can get without a degree according to "usa today." the second highest job, transportation storage and distribution manager at t92,000 this bear was caught taking a dip at a hot tub in california the homeowner says after getting out of the jacuzzi and wanting to cool off the bear headed straight for some margaritas that were set out. after that, the bear was found hanging out in a tree sleeping >> we need to get drunk hot tub

bear trending somewhere. can you make that happen >> we'll send a camera to the owner. >> let's get it going, america do it. have a great holiday thank you. still ahead, fire up the hot tub time machine because we'll look back at the markets to see where we might be headed from here it's your second half playbook later, roger federer's new look. nike is out. we'll tell you what sort of surprise company is in stick aroundwhat's c eam spirit ? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley

oil in focus prices again on the rise this morning. what it could mean for what you're paying at the gas pump as everybody in america hits the road today. big worries in the big apple. real estate in manhattan having its second worst quarter since the financial crisis. and amazon prepping for prime day. we'll tell you when the deals kick off second half of "worldwide exchange" kicking off right now. ♪ >> are you seeing the theme born in the usa, american girl? wink-wink. eagles, apple pie. thanks for being with us good morning i'm brian sullivan we have a lot to get to. leslie picker is back with the top headlines. >> shares of facebook slipping

after the bell last night. this on reports that the federal investigation into its data sharing has reportedly broadened. the "washington post" says the fbi, s.e.c. and federal trade commission have joined the justice department's probe into the cambridge analytica scandal. wilbur ross said he shorted two more stocks during his time as commerce secretary. ross saying he shorted shares of air lease and owen financial corporation in addition to the short sale of three other stocks that were previous ly shorted the trump administration is set to deny china mobile access to the u.s. market the government moved to block the company from offering services to the american telecom market the recommendation is its application be rejected on national security concerns shares of china mobile, one of the biggest state-owned telecom

providers are falling to the lowest level in four years >> thank you very much, kate rogers here's how your money and investments look now stock futures are in the green today. a nice change. yesterday they were deep in the red. the market came back and reminded that the futures are still relatively thinly traded isn't that correct, tim seymour? the bond market yielding 2.87% look at oil prices back near 75 bucks a barrel for wti. last time we hit 75 was in september or october of 2014 so we are nearing four-year highs. libya saying we can't do anything for act of god type stuff. venezuela a rolling disaster and the oncoming iran sanctions hitting the oil markets. sticking with the markets and

your money, we had an interesting ride in the first part of the year what's in store for the second half we want to look forward, not backward dominic chu joins us with more >> joe, i mean andrew, i mean carl, i mean david as we talk about the second half of the year, things may not look that bad we have been seeing a lot of volatility that could be here to stay say a lot of experts let's look at numbers for how things perform on average. now it's not to say traders say this will happen it's more that they use it for context. this idea that they can get an idea for how the odds or what the probabilities are for markets going forward. in the second half of the year, since 1990 for the s&p 500 on average it goes up by 3.5% in the final six months of the year you look at the russell 2000, slightly less performance, a little over 3% it's a positive trade.

and the dow and nasdaq wills i come to fruition it's a positive trade three quarters of a time same with the nasdaq, 5.5% gains on average looking at where the markets will price in the highest and lowest expectations for these sectors, look at these healthcare and consumer staples, those are the ones since 1990 that have performed the best on average in that time span. look at the positive trades. for healthcare and consumer staples, from a 75% positive trade rate up to 86% materials and energy up 1% to 2%, but they're the lagging performers in the second half of the year as we talk about the idea of seasonality, the reason why we bring it up is not to say guys, go out there and buy healthcare and consumer staples because they always go higher, it's as traders look at how they want to

approach the second half of the year, it may change some of the color or context they have for some sectors >> it's interesting, too, dan lo loeb, he's going after nestle to break up and now he's going after reportedly campbells soup as well so you talk about consumer staples historically doing well. now you also got a well known hege fund manager rattling i wonder if that would add to the odds that 78% of the time that sector goes up. >> the reason why these folks are getting involved in consumer staple stocks is because they've been beaten up so badly. if you have these catalysts going forward, it could be huge. and we're not even talking about the fact this is a midterm election year. a bunch of seasonality aspects go into that i would also say this, there was something interest that ryan dietrich said. >> he has some cool stats.

crazy stuff, but cool. >> so follow me on this one. may and june are typically weaker seasonal months in times when may and june are both positive over the last 2 it time t -- 22 times we've seen that, 19% of them the rest of the year has been positive. so you have bullish reasons to be high on the markets now whether they come to fruition or not remains to be seen still it sets the stage and puts context in there for folks to figure out if this is a time they want to be more invested in the markets. >> let's find that out let's bring in somebody else, the head of u.s. equity and quantitative strategy of bank of america and merrill lynch. you heard dom's stuff there. i know this is not how you're doing your analysis, but you

have to like the historical stats, right the momentum trade, or no? >> i think it makes me feel better and seasonal trends are persistent so i think summer months are typically weaker but the fourth quarter is generally strong from that perspective, from a technical perspective the market looks attractive what we focus more on is fundamentals so we aggregate bottom-up fundamentals by those measures the s&p 500 looks unusually healthy despite the macro headlines that we hear every day. i wanted to give you my favorite stat, which is if you look at earnings revisions for the s&p 500, they're in the 90th percentile analysts are still taking up earnings more than they're taking them down sales revisions, same scenario so we're seeing healthy bottom line and top line or sales growth i think sales growth mayer morn

p -- may be more important. >> i want to be clear what you're saying, despite the trade talk, despite the geopolitical stuff, north korea, through all this other stuff, analysts revisions for earnings for corporate america are still going up, up, up >> exactly corporations are generally more positive on their own prospects than analysts are. we also track guidance of companies. that's been on a positive trend. even though analysts are taking up numbers, corporations are saying you're still too low. we'll make more money than what you think we'll make so these are all solid trends fundamentally. i guess the one thing we're watching this earnings season is whether companies start to factor in the macro headlines.

if you start to hear from companies, listen, we might take down our guidance for the second half or for next year based on trade friction, based on the fact we're susceptible to headlines, that's a reason to get less optimistic on the market the other thing we're watching carefully, this is one of the key trends we think is positive, capex guidance has been strong so companies are finally saying they'll spend money on something besides share buybacks that's the only thing companies spent money on for the last nine years. now they're saying we'll spend some money on new headquarters, we'll spend on data centers, energy companies are spending money. if we hear corporations tone down capex plans, that's a reason to get more concerned >> i have a question, we've been focusing so much on technology

what about the consumer. discretionary stocks have done well year to date. does that mean the consumer will still drive the u.s. economy >> yeah. i think consumption growth looks healthy. consumer discretionary stocks have done well the one thing i worry about there, we're actually underweight consumer discretionary. the key friction there or the key negative there is starting to see margin compression from the mere fact that -- from a good fact which is that people are getting paid more money. so, it's kind of surprising, but we found that consumer discretionary companies like retailers, restaurants, hotels, they're very labor intensive so they actually tend to see a margin squeeze when the cost of wages go up. so that's one risk to the sector is that it's labor intensive and it could see a bigger pressure on margins from labor inflation than other sectors of the

market that said, you know, you were talking about staples earlier. consumer staples look beaten down, and relatively inexpensive. there's a sector that might actually come back to life in the second half. healthcare, tech, financials >> that's a lot of likes i was saying thank you for waking up with "wex," then i realized you're in london. i have to rescind that >> i'm in london it was easy for me >> cool stuff there. you think the world sending, and cooperate america is kicking tail >> i would say this, i went and looked at how much it costs to hedge 10% in the market, it's about 1.8% not exactly expensive. for people out there looking, it may be an option

>>. samsung, if you have a system sung phone, samsung phone, it may be doing something you're not authorizing it to do, but it could get you in hot water with friends and family

trending stories do you have a bear drinking a margarita in the hot tub yes or no? >> that was a great shot manhattan real estate had its worst second quarter since the financial crisis total sales fell 17% compared to a year ago according to a new report the average sales price fell 5%, though at 2$2.1 million it's still an eye popping level when compared to most of the rest of the country. >> you think about that. the average price, for americans, the average price of a condo in manhattan, little box, $2 million that's the worst performance insane >> harmed by the tax bill which got rid of state and local tax deductions and foreign buyers. >> every other house in my town is for sale now. >> that's another thing, supply. >> new york, thank god they're

building hudson yards, because new york is short of people. we need more people in manhattan. if you have a samsung phone you could be in for an awkward moment soon. samsung users are complaining of a glitch that sends random photos from their device to their contacts without notifying users that their photos have been sent. samsung is aware of the reports and is looking into the problem. user complaints indicate it's primari primarily galaxy s9 and s9 plus phones affected. >> so you don't know you're sending the message until they write back and say what's this >> and you have no idea. >> can you see a bad situation for that >> i can see a bunch of people le deleting photos today. >> leslie picker, always a pleasure. still to come, get ready to buckle up and hit the road

form is the fourth of july, gas prices are in full focus, but what might oil prices moan for what you pay at the pump that's coming up

let's find out what's coming up on "squawk box. >> do you think we should always go back, go forward, or can we go back? early on the nasdaq was called sharply lower. all day long it was lower. see what happened by the end of the day? what do you make of that >> i think belgium's comeback against japan, but also futures are thinly traded at this hour things can turn around >> but all day long the market was threatening to go under. the dow was down almost 200 at one point and closed up 35 no one came out and we didn't get the normal trade fears moderated or any of that it was just people got tired of worrying about near-term effects of trade, i think.

if it happens, everything will happen down the road it's fourth of july tomorrow coming up, we have heroes that make barbecue. american heroes smokehouse, they may give us some food. we also have a summer beer expert here from anheuser-busch. and i have terranova here. we're talking about italy. i'm filling him in on a couple things, that's where i went after vienna i mentioned yesterday i was able to work in a cabanara every meal, whether it was a starter or a -- >> that sounds delicious, ham, peas >> isn't that the best >> now i'm hungry. because of what happened in italy, i can't have any beer for fourth of july or any barbecue or anything. no no i'm so far over i busted through -- >> you're talking about the carb

intake >> no, i ate like a -- like an obese glutton over there >> that's what it's for. it's italy >> but then you have to come back and get back down to -- >> when you get on the vespa and it goes urr. >> yes we have linda mcmahon on marty musey will be on he knows about jobs. for fourth of july, brian, it's a divided country right now. i understand that. i am so excited about our prospects. >> i want you to wear both red and blue >> did you see this? these are all little flags there are people in this country who say they cry before they go to bed, they cry when they wake up i'm not sure what part of everything they're looking at necessarily. maybe looking at mean tweets if you look at unemployment or any of these other metrics, bill

gates i think said it yesterday, the world as a whole has never been this well off >> never been better >> glad we had this talk >> have a great 4th with the family we're one day away from the fourth of july oil prices are up. jackie deangelis, will we get bankrupt at the pump now >> i certainly hope not. let's look at oil prices wti is on its way to $75. you went to law school, so did i, this is what i call a two-prong analysis the first prong is geopolitics the iranian president saying if the u.s. continues to put pressure on allies, we'll have a problem with some of our crude oil exports. it's not just iran and venezuela now. it's also libya.

that's one thing to watch. the second prong is the seasonal factor about 40 million people will hit the road for the fourth of july holiday. you mentioned gas prices their elevated because crude oil prices are up. 2.86 is for the average now. some people say we could climb from here. >> let's find out what dan thinks have a great holiday dan, gas prices will go with oil prices how are they looking historically are we at four-year highs for the nation >> we have not seen these prices since november of 2014 as far as summers are concerned, the most expensive since then. but there's a good indication here, and i think jackie was correct that prices will head back towards the $3 a gallon mark when that happens is anyone's guess. i would expect that 7 to 10 days looks like that time frame we are looking at other

pressures here domestically. last week's bullish inventory report from the energy information agency showing a near 9$9.9 billion draw was a ja dropper. that means the supply of oil globally was not as strong as some thought at the beginning of the year we are look at stronger demand for oil, stronger demand for gasoline, diesel and exports are factoring into higher prices, especially for the second half of the summer. >> and a lot of people talk about this refinery blend, a lot of other things. it's not all the same. >> caller: c california has their own thing going on, the east coast has their own thing going on people in california say what do you mean $3, we've been paying 4.50 in l.a. >> exactly it's been a crazy summer and

it's about to get more interesting, i'm not even throwing into the mix hurricanes geopolitical events are there, but one has to recognize the effect of tax cuts as well have had an impact in terms of lessening the impact people might have had with what amounts today according to our live ticking average about a 65 cent a gallon increase year over year it looks like it's being absorbed and that people are taking to the roads and increasing the amount of demand. regionally, cheaper prices in the southeast, higher prices in places like california, hawaii, washington state all of those areas are seeing gasoline prices well and above the 3.50 a gallon range. >> could we see 5 bucks any time in the next 12 months anywhere in the united states besides manhattan? >> i see a referendum potential

coming up on gas taxes in california if people vote to drop gas taxes there that may help, but i don't $5 in the cards, but average prices above $3 a gallon isimminent and perhaps higher really depending on the available and supply of oil globally i don't think there's many out there suggesting a collapse in oil prices any time soon for gasoline and diesel, look at the export numbers on our oil and to a lesser extent on fuel we're spending more globally and that is making things more bright for the price of fuel and more painful at the pumps. >> dan, thank you very much. we'll see you again. let's wrap it up with your morning rbi. it has to do with fireworks. check this out wallethub.com says spending on fireworks will be 8$825 million that's not what's interesting. this is. 68% of all fireworks related

injuries take place within the month of fourth of july, that means 32% don't. be safe. have a great holiday "squawk box" is next from hi and improves memory. - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

good morning new this morning, german chancellor angela merkel striking a deal on migration to avoid a political collapse stocks in europe and in the u.s. are trading higher facebook is under fire as the u.s. government widens its probe into the cambridge analytica scandal. we will show you the reaction from wall street and ahead of the independence day holiday, we will talk food, beer and the trends that could make money in the second half of the year after we kind of stalled after january.

it's tuesday, july 3, 2018 it is a great country. happy july 4th "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and melissa lee is hanging out with us today our guest host this morning is joe terranovterranova. you guys hang out a lot, right >> we do >> oh, boy >> we're not on the same show, but -- >> oh, boy >> joe and i go way back >> we go way back. >> i know. >> you do? >> i think of them as