you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. time for the kensho stat of the day. ♪ good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street. i'm scott walker with jim cramer live from the new york stock exchange carl and david have the morning off. we take a look at the futures. you take a look and the dow has been over the map this morning it came back positive and now negative by 36 points. nasdaq opened positive by 8 1/2. the s&p down by one point flat

european markets let's take a look there. >> not bad. >> not bad slight losses across the board from germany to spain. ten year note yield we saw it slipped a little bit muted wage growth. a little bit disappointing there's the ten year at 281. crude oil in focus down about 1% now a few bucks below the $75 level. our road map starts with today's better than expected jobs report unemployment ticking up slightly stocks futures largely flat. trade war begins the u.s. and china exchanging $34 billion in tariffs president trump warning of at least $500 billion more if no trade progress is reached. alzheimer's breakthrough biogen reporting and shares surging. nonforeign payrolls rose by

$213,000 last month. figures for may and april rised higher june coming in at 4% up from 3.88 as more people enter the labor force. hourly average earnings up 2% year over year it has the flavor of golding locks. >> only in this country where we're worried about the fed tightening too much are we cheering how little people make. so look at this 5% increase in hourly earnings. that's great they're not raising how much people made there are not a lot of raises. and i think that's this is what people want. because don't want the fed, as my friend former partner larry kudlow said, to be insensitive to the idea that maybe the economy is not booming like people want. >> yeah.

>> let people make more money. >> average hourly earnings month over month up .2 after a .3 in may. >> the fed is probably going to be on the fed. maybe the voice of reason saying, you know, we have a lot of people not making that much money and getting that much raises let's let it get a little bit more but i'll tell you what i loved we've become a country four years ago we were a country where health care is the only thing that had big job growth. that's a drag on gdp for the most part. the construction plus 282,000 year over year, manufacturing plus 282,000 year over year. health care up 309,000 year over year maybe something is happening that is producing gdp growth i like it. >> if not for trade, we may have a different market picture this morning. right. >> yeah. >> the trade war is real.

>> yeah. >> i do not like the trade war is on. what i like is a narrative just as, you know, we're actually now beginning to fight back from the beat down we've been suffering for years. and i know that's not a way that the people want to say it, but to me i don't know the other way to look at it. have we've been fighting the chinese? >> both saying the same things yes, we are fighting back. yes, it's the first major strad war. you look at the fed minutes yesterday. >> yeah. >> there was real commentary from business that spending is being held back. the federal reserve said that. there is some uncertainty. it wasn't like chairman powell said, you know, we don't have to raise it you know, look the market the dow is up 150 points when those notes came out it dropped to plus 80.

it was during my show. i have to readjust my show that's "mad money" and it comes back and it comes back a lot people felt, first, micron said it's not going to hurt that much by the trade war second, i think a lot of people felt, wait a second, maybe the trade war is priced into the market look, i'm adamant. i'm not as gloomy because i deal with the reality reality is -- >> reality that the companies you talk to and companies are good. >> yes i mean, you know, maybe people aren't making that much more truck makers struggle to keep up do they struggle when things are bad? no. >> cummins. >> yeah. she does themost work.

i think the work matters stocks are bad bonds are good i'm not playing that game. it there are a lot of companies doing well in this country if you take on the chinese, you do it from strength. and we have more strength than they do. we just do we don't want to admit it but 2011 jobs on average this economy is very strong and it's not over heating. i know there is a protensetive to say we shouldn't have been up so much yesterday and into the trade. i think people understand there wasn't going to be called off. it was going to be a truce but i'm not as negative as others but i'm not roaringly positive because i read the papers. >> why no better reaction in the market to what should be other than trade because the uncertainty of positive backdrop. >> we had an incredible rally yesterday. the nasdaq was incredibly strong i didn't get that.

i thought it was a little too aggressive i think that things are okay they're not as gloomy. i come back after a a week of vacation and i listen to the conference call and i listen to the mccormack conference call and i listen to john flannery. i mean, john flannery the ceo of ge did a major reorganization and people yawned. they yawned. today airbus puts out new forecast saying business is more are robust people are said ignore it. i can't ignore it. i can't ignore the good and focus on the bad. >> yeah and, you know, there's money flowing into treasuries. >> did you see that you can get a 3% on the cd out a couple of years? that's pretty good so the competition is there, but look at what the soft good stocks have been doing look at kraft heinz.

when was the last time you had ce velveeta. >> not that long ago. >> there was a guy frankie they had so much velveeta and campbell's soup. did you know that survives >> along with cockroaches. >> post nuclear war , it's going to be there. >> do you think too much is being made in the trade issue? ian bremmer is going to be on with us at the 10:00 hour. calls it vastly exaggerated. last night he tweets out five hours until, quote, vastly exaggerated -- >> i'm not with him. i'm usually not with him we have the same misdemeanor on tv i think he's right on this i think that basically we can over do it we're going to pay the pardon mers -- farmers.

that's what we do. there's absolutely a sense this is the end of the world. it's 1929. it's 1930. we have we're asking for reparations from a particular country. >> i've seen some -- speaking of twitter, i've seen now we're in a bear market. >> i read that, too. and i wonder do they look at the russell or does it not count the nasdaq looks pretty good. >> you can see the forest -- >> i don't like that joke. >> you can see the forest so clearly through the trees, why can't everybody else what is the problem here >> maybe i'm older than everybody and i remember when i got in and treasuries were 14% and people told me, hey, you know, this is great opportunity.

i'm just older all right. the dol-- all right there's your book. available wherever books are sold i'm saying it's not a bear market that's what i'm saying i'm saying there are many stocks yesterday was a day where like a broadcom maybe the most reactive stock to china other than qualcomm up huge. see qualcomm -- oh, on the promotional aspect that's true. better late than never. >> right. >> the qualcomm was up

yesterday was a relief rally went a little too far. >> micron was up yesterday. >> right i disagree with micron i think that i don't want to be in the cross hairs of china. there's lots of stocks that are not in the cross hairs of china. that's what i'm saying there's so much etf. i know we're going to get to biogen if it's true, it's obviously only it's 40 it should be up a hundred. this has been intractable disease. i don't want to raise hope for anyone. >> i'm saying, there are a lot of companies that are not -- just because soybeans are on the restricted list. we'll write a check to everybody. that's what we do. i am not going to stop looking for the biogen i'm not going to stop looking

for the j & j. up two points yesterday. how about proctor. proctor up six trade points. okay i'll take that. but the optionalty what they can do why does it matter because in the end, it's a market of stocks it's so easy i can be gloomy. do you want me to be gloomy? >> no. i like you're positive what you're describing is a more difficult game to play it's a stock pickers market more than a long time. >> yes and everyone wants to make it an etf. they're worried about single stock. people went to bed with the washington nationals behind 9-0. did you know they came back 14-12. that's what i'm talking about. >> the sunshines on the nationals sometimes. >> yes the chinese stock market, that's a bear market. we don't talk about it because their economy is slowing. >> maybe we should be talking about it more. i was reading about it this morning. >> think they're immune? they have a stock market

acti one of the most ill advised things the communist did because they have to prop it up. >> we cared about what was happening in the chinese market in the summer of' 15 we don't seem to be caring as much in the summer of '18. >> can you imagine should we fill up? >> thank god i was on vacation when it happened automakers are weighing in on the impact of u.s. and china tariffs. phil wilebeau is in chicago wit more. >> some are saying, you know, we'll pass along the cost of the higher tariffs to customers with higher prices in the showroom. let's refresh everybody's memory the tariffs in effect for china and the u.s. for u.s. built vehicles that are exported to china, they go from 10% up to 35%. for the few vehicles that are built in china and then exported to the u.s., the tariff rises from 2. 5% now up to 25%

so one of the few companies that is impacted not by a lot but is impacted by this is general motors now, it generally is building in china and selling in china but they do export a few vehicles over there general motors has said its assessing the impact of this and imports the buick envision here if they were to pass along the tariff, it would be another $8,000 to the cost of a buick. but general motors said we're assessing what the impact is going to be before we decide do we eat it, pass it along, decontent the vehicles trying to figure it out. tesla is impacted because it exports vehicles from california to china the company is already sent letters to customers, potential customers in china saying expect to pay higher prices once these tar riches go into effect. especially as you custom order vehicles tesla 14% of the sales last year were in china. as you take a look at shares of tesla. what a weird week it's been for

that stock it was at $360 on monday and trading at just over $304 and bmw tells us that it will be passing along some of the cost of the tariff that china is slapping open the u.s.-built vehicles that we ship over there. some of that will be passed along to customers to what extent, the company hasn't said at this point. likely going to be in some of the higher-end x 5 and x 6 models we starting to see this play out and we'll find out what happens with sales we've got a couple of weeks here two or three or four weeks where the existing inventory you won't see any changes in pricing after that when we would see the impact. >> yeah. we'll see what happens phil, thank you very much. phil lebeau. >> it is autos. >> 10% bump in the market. figure this out. >> yeah. gm i don't want to own gm. this isn't clarified because i think that's where -- remember

they sold more cars in china last year than the united states that's an important figure i'm worried about germany because germany is an export economy. so autos autos matter to me. >> you still think if, you know, the idea to refresh people's memories, you know, in what has been a short week. the idea floated by the u.s. ambassador to germany. go to zero tariffs on both sides. that's why you saw the european automakers have the explosive gains yesterday. >> right. >> you said if it happens, you get an immediate 10%. >> right we're going to blow through 2,700 on the s&p that's so important. that's a sign like unlike what everybody says on twitter trump has a real policy. you need to see that. >> it's likely to get messier

before you get to the end of the road. >> that's why yesterday was too enthusiastic. >> yeah. look, i cannot be as negative as everybody i read or listen to give the fact we have the unbelievable wage job situation. i mean, that is the most important thing. look, i studied this for 30 years. the most important number that you need to focus on is job growth and the job growth is extraordinarily good and then the second is wage increase and wage increase, at least from the fed's point of view, is very good against that, we have a lot of negatives. but i can't get too negative when i have this employment figure i can't. i want to be so bad. i want to be unhappy >> it would be so unlike you. >> thank you when we come back, a big morning, as jim said, for biogen regarding the alzheimer's drug another look at the futures, expect them to be a little volatile on the jobs report. try to figure out what is in the

cards for the months ahead dow open lower at 33 points. nasdaq higher. s&p flat

there are the futures. dow open lowerby 29. we're almost steady at the moment nasdaq open higher by about 13 more "squawk on the street" straight ahead imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs.

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and customize coverage to help protect you and your business. announcer: to find an agent, visit trustedchoice.com time for cramer's mad dash ahead of the market open we touched on this but let's go deeper. >> positive -- i don't want to do anything that is promotional. it's about alzheimer's bigogen one of their drugs at 18 months it failed to meet the end point. it's shocking people the december 2017 news that we're being reversed you can see it going on. now, there are a lot of people

who are skeptical. it's the most intractable. but it's also maybe even the largest unmet need wells believes in it morgan stanley believes in it. jpmorgan said it's good. if this is real, then the stock is going to be much higher than this why do i say if it's real? because, there have been a half dozen drug companies given up trying to find a cure. this would be incredible so those who believe up 40 is not too much. >> you've said you're saying earlier this morning this could be prime for break out the way the chart sort of looks. >> very much. >> all the good had been taken out of it by the 2017 announce want getting this news is rather extraordinary. now w we want to be sure everyone understands

this is the holy grail if you can reverse plaque millions of people suffer from it it hasn't been able to be anywhere near successful for so many big drug companies. this is a big one. >> all right the opening bell minutes away. "squawk on the street" will be right back ♪ the kenya tea development agency is an organization that is owned by tea farmers. every week we sell this tea, we get paid in multiple accounts. we were looking for a bank to provide

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welcome back you're watching "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world opening bell set to ring in a couple of minutes time to recap, jim, strong jobs report. >> right. >> unemployment rate to 4.0% average hourly earnings a little bit of a disappointment both subsequently and year on year. you know, look, you want wages to go up. >> right yields dropped because it's a little bit of an ease on inflation concerns >> yes well, also, if you look at the fed economic resurge came out. it's down which is fantastic figure i know i want to mention when i say this is a good economy, what

i mean historically you want -- you love to 211,000 jobs created. if you're a stock or bond person okay there's a lot of people out there who say, well, how can you cheer there's little wage growth but what you want is what larry kudlow said. larry is a very good economist and say, look, we don't need the fed to be aggressive yeah, i want to be believe in that what rick santelli talks about you don't want the two year to be north of the ten year because you have a lot of people -- >> one of the biggest risks right now is that things get too hot. the fed has to be become too reactive to that and all bets are off. >> i think the fed already reacted. [ opening bell ] >> i point out this is the kind of number you want if you're jay powell you have a little room

i think fed chairman powell is doing a great job. [ opening bell ] >> you can see it now the s&p 500 near the big board. >> all right i have a quiz for you. what stocks go down on good days and bad days >> financials. >> yes. >> and once again right out -- i mean, people at jpmorgan yesterday and i said is there something that could make this stock go higher? anything just give me something

crickets ten times earnings when these companies report i think they can pop yesterday you said they were down for nine straight. >> 13 straight days. they have a team meeting without management that's an extraordinary figure that's my most worrisome that's what i'm worried about other than autos the banks areal signaling that we're going to -- that they're going to make no money on loans. they're going to pay you more for deposits. >> you have yields, which are are in the red and they're dropping how are these bank stocks going to work? regardless >> they have a lot of ways to

make money. >> a lot of ways to make money a lot of different fees they can gather they also can return capital aggressively i know it doesn't matter this group is indeed in a bear market. >> 10 year right now at 281. it's down 3/4 of a percent on what is a strong economy and a strong jobs report but that's a conundrum. >> the ceo of goldman said it's a manipulated number rick santelli said the numbers can't be trusted that said, i mean, look the fed needs to sell its ten year position or the chinese need to. we can't have this yield curve be the way it is and not have the banks go up. they can't they can't they have to pay the cd rates go up constantly. people have to watch the cd rates. they're impressive how much you can make

i look at them all the time. go to vanguard's site. >> i'm sorry to interrupt, jim i want to revisit biogen it's up 19.5% now off this positive trial data for the alzheimer's drug there are people out there who suffer from it and biogen said it didn't work after 12 months so you don't want to get your hopes up as it goes on, perhaps there will be many people skeptical because of, for instance, the stock -- they worked hard to try to beat this how is possible for biogen a lot of people are, look, a lot

of people are looking to these defensives have you seen the defensive? >> they've been the groups rallying the utilities. >> i can't even look they are parabolic. >> you want to see that? >> no. that's the negativity i keep saying is endless. people do not stop with the negativity. >> all right what gets us out of that >> it's hard to like a market where the financials are not at least participating. an individual basis domestic countries that are doing well are going to pop companies that are international unless we saw the auto issue will go down. >> all right you're telling me to stay with the russell. stick with what is working. >> right. >> yeah.

any reason why the trend is going to be upset? people will go back into the tried and trued high growth tech and the russell the small caps that have less exposure -- >> i did all of these yesterday on faang saying they're t anti-china they have great secular growth the money will return to faang, some of the defensive stock. you take a look atwal greens that was shot in the head by amazon now it's coming back kraft heinz had a second-rate quarter. stocks doing well. kellogg is not doing well. look at those numbers. some analysts that talked down h hersheys because they have sales that are down. you can't stop these stocks. and those are stocks that saver session. i don't believe it the bunds stocks are amazing the costs are up that should matter it doesn't seem to matter.

>> you mentioned the faang stocks let's look at facebook yesterday we did this. rich genefield goes 275. highest level on the street. according to "variety" they're in a reality talks with cristiano ronaldo. >> that's a six-pack story meaning -- >> it would be their biggest -- he's got like a 12-pack. >> he does. >> i didn't know that was possible. >> 12-pack of modelo. >> it would be their biggest thing yet. >> this is again the future. can you imagine the amount of worldwide advertising? people like netflix because it's good in every country -- well not every country not china. is the forward thinking that facebook is doing. yesterday we debated selling some and i said what are we thinking this is the company that has the most momentum of faang.

>> we had a debate yesterday on "halftime. >> thank you it was a google world. >> i look forward to that. >> google world over facebook because it's cheaper. >> the fact is google is up less than any of the faangs it has phenomenal growth they like instagram. but i have to tell you, this -- facebook is what you buy in this environment. and that is a world class athlete. it's like movuhammad ali. maybe the greatest of all time. >> it shows you in part where facebook'ses facebook's aspirations lie. >> do you think that visa doesn't want to advertise against that look at the ads against world

cup. will frost has memorized the ads. he's got an insane memory! i think in you look at the play and you look at the advertisers who are linked with world cup, every one of them would pay a fortune to be out. they've been bidding against each other. >> you think he's a little fired up >> yeah. he's worried about belgium. >> i would be, too. >> yeah. they're stacked up. >> everyone in iceland knows a professional soccer player you looking it up? will sends an e-mail every 30 seconds. >> i was looking at biogen it's up 19 percent. >> if the financials can turn today and the autos can turn today, people are thinking there must be a deal i don't want to think there's a deal but if the financials can rally -- >> good luck with that.

>> how about lou capital goes to 210 on apple. >> yeah. the service revenue again. that was one of those statement pieces of research saying i haven't said anything lately by the way, samsung's numbers were miserable usually apple goes down. but apple is viewed as a service company. it's a razor blade model the way proctor usedto be. >> i told you that's the secret to my success. i'm old. >> citi is positive. morgan stanley is now positive azure is going to try to make a run at amazon.

they won't win google cloud -- >> microsoft up $100. >> the quarter is going to be great. the quarter will be great. pcs are doing well web business is doing well linked in was a brilliant acquisition. fast-growing tech does well here how can you have coca-cola go up people think coca-cola is taking shares from pepsico. they report on tuesday that will be the kickoff did you see the stocks yesterday? >> yeah. >> bob is on the floor, as always, watching what is moving. good morning, bob. >> good morning. happy friday everybody so futures got a nice little pop initially on the jobs report continuing job growth. honest wage inflation. that's pretty good news. especially with the fed's gradual rate hike. unfortunately, we're not getting a lot of energy in the sectors we want. financials, as scott mentioned did go positive but barely oil went from 165 to 174 and dow

down a couple of dollars this week it's weak. no pop from the commodity sectors. industrials haven't done much. it's been defensive with the consumer staples and utilities this includes the open, so utilities, consumer staples on the upside industrials have been flat financials are down. energy down 2% not a surprise there so far there's been a lot of collateral damage from the stronger dollar and the trade wars we were talking about outflower flows from emerging markets. that's continuing this week. if you look at the eef this is the basket of all emerging market countries. that's the white line. the last three months we're down 10 to 12% in the last month. the top line is the s&p 500. so you can see money come ought of the emerging markets. and partly trade partly stronger dollar

influencing that there's one thing i mentioned yesterday, i was talking about the metals complex you can buy metals through the dbbb the metals etf a basket of copper, aluminium, and those kinds of things. you've seen those down in the last month it's sitting not far from the 52-week low. copper, in particular, has been affe affected else where quiet overseas relatively there was a big one in how long kong it was em blamatic of the issues in china the fourth largest smartphone maker in the world will go public on monday they price at 17 hong kong dollars. 17 to 22 is the price talk it was higher a few weeks ago and a few months ago they're going to price it about

$54 billion. but a few months ago, they were talking about potentially $100 billion evaluation overall so they have dramatically ratcheted this down. you can't blame them it's been trade war concerns and tough year in the chinese stock market put up shanghai we're 23% off the recent highs in the shanghai market that was only earlier this year. that's not just trade war. it's broader issues about slowing down the chinese market. but, also, we've had a stream of ipos out there in the tech field in china that have been disappointing. take a look at some of them down there. the online medical services these price at the last six or seven months raise zor is a gaming platform these are not necessarily hardware makers but the tech ipo haven't done well in china this year a whole con influence of events. very tough time for a major

global ipo of course, wait to see that start trading on monday in hong kong flat on the dow now, scott. >> we'll go to the bond pits where rick santelli is at the cme group. good morning, rick. >> good morning. fascinating set of market reactions to the morning's data. and this morning's data has so many ways to look at it. you know, i stress, again, that several employment numbers go in the year over year wage gains for 2.9. that's when the inflation issues erupted. there is not that type of report good news participation rate went up. markets probably look at that in a more mixed fashion look at two day of tens. everything has moved down. dollar interest rates now two

year yields actually are unchanged on the day and up two on the week. look at may 1st chart of tens. all the volatility at the end of may. when things like that happen, you get wild market moves. those extremes give you huge amounts of knowledge that's when everybody's guards are down and that's when you get to see real protection, defense, aggressiveness for ten year note yields that was a 278 yield close. we want to pay attention to that in the big picture you look at the same time frame for bunds, their session close at 26 basis points we're officially under 30 basis points as we slowly continue to watch the market melt with respect to bunds and shots

overseas dollar yaun had a bit of reversal yesterday as you can see on the one week chart, the dollar's strength, even though it diminished one day, of course, as the vix went in the other direction for the most part it's fairly lateral. it remits a one year high on the dollar versus the chinese currency and the dollar index one week of the chart down about a half cent now. what is interesting how quickly we continue to go from 95 down to 94 and 94 is, by far, the most important level traders will be watching for the week's close. scott and jim, back to you have a great weekend. >> you do the same thank you so much. coming up ian bremmer tweeted that the trade war is, in his words, vastly exaggerated. all right. "squawk on the street" will be right back

big developments on the ipo. the "wall street journal" reporting. rations for the public listing saudi aramco stalled leaving

people close to the process doubting the ipo will go forward. and just this morning sonos plans to list shares on the nasdaq let's do under t >> what many believe is a saudi arabian manmanipulation, i rega this, it's very intuitive article. because this is a lot of oil guys i deal with just say look, they want oil as high as possible to make this deal pop and if it's off the table, will they produce more oil and take it down? is this something connected with president trump? i don't know, a lot of companies are not drilling. >> be careful what you wish for, you raise $100 billion if you're the saudis, then you open

yourself up to more scrutiny, the likes of which you haven't seen before in terms of this sort of ipo. really want that >> i mean you think about china, in retrospect do they want as many of these companies going public i like the prc does not want transparency transparency is hard, one of the reasons why i like the aramco deal this is obviously a shock. >> the journal quotes an unnamed executive saying everyone is almost certain it is not going to happen. >> that was great reporting because this is a key driver about why people feel that oil went from 55 all the way up. one thing people have to recognize is that the major emerging nations spent a lot of money. which is buy next year at this time, a lot of these countries

they have depleted their reserves so dramatically can this mean that oil's plateauing no, i mean the fact -- until you start hearing that the big countries have got a lot of new oils, it's going to go higher. there's not a lot of countries with eserves >> if the ipo happens, the new york stock exchange was hopeful of getting that listing, up in midtown, they had similar thoughts too >> although the ipo market has been incredibly strong, sonos -- >> what do you think of sonos? >> the brand that works, like spotify, it's like jim, no i think that deal is something that is eagerly awaited.

someone downgraded costco. i hear music in my ears. up next, "squawk on the street" will be right back this wi-fi is fast.

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the ceo of hasbro has come on "mad money" many times, when it's cleaned out, hasbro is going to go and go and go, and very meaningful. it's a stock to watch. intel is deeply hobbled. this may be the next big move like what we did with nike, when sfic finally the sports authority was done >> my wife cleaned out some of the inventory at toys "r" us 47 bags. >> my wife's cleaning out the inventory at some of the italian -- >> what can you do >> by the way, this article in the "wall street journal," said

look, the big stores are over. >> what do you got on "mad" tonight? >> i have a very controversial stock that just went through a reorganization the ceo is defending his plan and i won't say more >> you get invited to wolf's place this weekend >> no, i didn't. coming up, ian bmerer on the trade war, keep it here. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. you mighyour joints...ng95. for your heart... or your digestion...

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♪ >> do the millennial's know this song, lover boy? we're live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. let's take a look at the markets, we've got flat trade if you look at the dow and the s&p. the nasdaq has gained 40 points.

>> our road trmap today starts with the june jobs report, 139,000, beating expectations. we're going to dig through the numbers and go to goldman-sachs analyst. u.s. tariffs on chinese foods going into effect, as well as the big retaliatory tariffs from china >> and we'll look at the winners and losers of a trade war. we head to kentucky where one industry is nervously anticip e anticipated. >> china threatening to extend tariffs to all $500 billion of goods imported from that country. china's retaliatory tariffs going into effect. >> as you said, china has moved by retaliating with it's own

tariffs, immediately after it said the u.s.'s move customs officials are already collecting duties for 545 items, matching the amount subject to u.s. tariffs the targeted tariffs are at soybeans and cars. the chinese commerce ministry said it lodged a complaint about the tariffs now to the world trade organization earlier today the commerce ministry said that beijing had no choice but to fend off what it described as the largest trade war in economic history. the chinese move only escalates what many fear could become an even greater trade war president xi jinping has shown no signs of wavering and president trump also seemed to double down during his visit to montana. the trump administration has

said that the tariffs are to force china to change it's trade rules. i was speaking to the amtran president earlier today who said there's a lot of anxiety right now among the american business community. he said top of mind, even though this is a tariff war, are the nontariff challenges that the companies could face he said that regulatory issues like inconsistent interpretation of the rules and unclear laws have been the top challenge for his members for the past three years. so they are really worried that environmental checks, safety inspections, investigations, that are from their perspective somewhat random, are all just going to get much, much worse for them the other issue that they're worried about is that they're all scrambling now to come up with contingency plans, he said everybody is reviewing their

pricing, he said reassessing the supply chain for the supply chain he said people are asking should i be sourcing from chandler, ina. can i pass on the costs to the customers or do i have to absorb it and finally, he said there are a lot of people now questioning their investment plans he brought up one interesting statistic. he said as of last year, 23% of his members in a survey had said that they were already thinking of moving their manufacturing out of china because of the high costs. he said that now with these tariffs, that could potentially now just lead to an acceleration of this process. now one more quick point, he said that they are really worried about this $200 billion tariff threat, because of this idea that it could directly impact so many more companies. he said that this is a main concern for these companies. >> all right, eunice, thank you

very much. our other big story this morning, of course jobs day, the u.s. add 213,000 jobs last quarter. steve liesman is here with more. >> the jobs market continues to defy expectations for a slowdown either from perhaps trade related concerns or a lack of workers. but muted wage gains, with all this job -- april, may revised higher together by plus 37,000 average hourly wages, good at 02, but not off the charts the unemployment rate ticking up as many people came to the workforce didn't find jobs immediately. and you're finding increase in anticipation over at 2.9 the unemployment rate rose because the increase in

household employment, 102,000, was swamped by a huge 601,000 jump in the labor force, marking the first increase since february let's look at where people did find jobs, education health services up 4,000. always the case that that sector is strong. but manufacturing, still strong, leisure hospitality. retail down a strong 22. we had a big gain last month so no reason for concern there fed funds futures currently pricing at an 80% probability of a rate hike, with job growth strong, that's the payroll number, with wage gains still below 3% this report is confirming a track of gradual rate hikes. joining us now is wells fargo senior global equities strategist john wen and david

welly. scott, i go to you first, who's more important to you today, steve liesman's report or eunice's report on trade what are you more focused on this morning >> i'm more focused on the jobs. trade war is probably a lower priority than the rhetoric and the things that happen today for me the thing that's going to drive the market over the next 12 months, is going to be things like employment, global growth, what's the fed going to do will we see a lot of wage pressure so for me, i pay a lot offen attention to what's going on in the trade report. >> if that's what we should be focused on, why such a market reaction to what was a good report >> i think both things are actually important in the short run, i agree i think we should have a more positive market reaction because what this is really

showing is that american business is capable of luring people back into the labor market but i do think this trade war issue is a problem because we're making -- it seems like we're making the assumption that at some stage the other side will blink, and what if they don't? tariffs are a terrible thing both for us and for other countries and i'm afraid this sort of increasing rhetoric is negative and dampening markets overall. i think in the short run, the economy is doing very well, and i would be more positive about the equity markets than we are seeing in the markets today. i am worried be this tariff issue. >> it's having more impact on the markets, david, people think somebody's going to blink at some point what if they do blink, what if they don't blink, what is is priced in more right now, if they don't blink or if they do

blink? >> i think the markets are assuming that it's going to a big sort of drawn out slog so i think they're pricing in a messy war. that's how wars end up the generals always tell you the troops are going to be home by christmas, but they never are. and this could extend into next year and the year after. from a political perspective, if you're amlo down in mexico, or xi jinping, you don't want to be seen as giving in. so this is not just a commercial transaction, and because of that, the days of being matched tit for tat all the way up, it could sew the global economy >> scott, let me ask you the same question, what we have seen with the german automakers that went higher yesterday, i'm wondering what is not priced in is that we end up in a world that has actually lower tariffs.

>> i think the market has done a really good job, the stock market of discounting the possibili probability that we're going to have a trade war so the market's done a good job of that. >> but is it discounting that we may actually have lower tariffs down the road? >> not yet, and i think that's the key, because that's what our argument and the equity strategy group has been, there may be some short-term pain here, but our guess is that over the next two or three years, we're going to see the global level of tariffs go down, not up. and that's going to be a positive >> david, can the market get out of its range without a resolution to trade or earnings are going to be capable of doing that >> i think they could. we're going to see -- i mean earnings season is really kicking off next week. it's going to be a very good earnings season. there are going to be two quarters in the last 30 quarters where analysts have actually increased their estimate of

earnings this is going to be a very strong quarter for earnings, that should be a very positive thing given all the other noise going on, it's going to be a very positive thing for the markets and it could help the equity markets move higher. >> the problem is that earnings growth was so strong last quarter, the bar was held so high >> think about next year, too, i mean earnings growth isn't going to be anything like it is this year >> for a while you need to think of stocks as convertible bonds, if you get five years earnings growth in just one year, companies have a huge amount of cash to distribute, you're going to see a lot of buy backs, stock dividends, so for right now we should enjoy the earnings we are seeing rather than be so focused on earnings growth from here in many ways stock prices don't reflect just how good earnings currently are. >> of course, as michelle and i

were just talking too, you have this tremendous earnings growth of 20% or whatever, and you still have the worst first half for stocks since 2010. >> earnings were supposed to be a catalyst last quarter. >> good weekend to you both. >> when we come back, u too, can't wait, almost there when we come back, waging a trade war, the first round of tariffs between u.s. and china go into effect we're going to hear from a u.s. trade representative for u.s.-china affairs "squawk on the street" will be right back don't go away. duncan just protected his family with a $500,000 life insurance policy. how much do you think it cost him? $100 a month? $75? $50? actually,duncan got his $500,000 for under $28 a month.

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president trump is promising mortar riffs for china >> founder and president of the international trade consultancy, good to have you here. >> thank you for inviting me >> if the president does indeed go to $500 billion two things happened this week. we saw the chinese currency move

around a lot weaken more than we had seen recently people have said that is a tool they could use against us. then we saw this decision in a chinese court related to microtechnology. other ways that china could get to us are regulatory decisions should we read into those reactions? i mean is this being done as a result of current trade? >> the currency, the chinese government has seemed to want to control the currency, because they feel capital flight and with regard to the micron case, that has been going on for a while. that is a reflection of the ipr problems that the section 301 case is trying to address, but it is not a result of it because the case has been going on for a while. >> so what's your assessment then of where we stand right now with the two sides >> well, the trade war has now officially started they say that no battle plan survivors first contact.

so we're now going to actually see what those tariffs actually mean for those people in the midwest, in our agricultural areas and for the chinese stock market which has dipped as a result of all of these things. in the longer term, if the president does go through with $500 billion in tariffs. for example on the u.s. side, there are a number of u.s. senators who don't owe trump anything and have expressed an interest in getting involved in trade and may control the impact of that 500 billion. on the chinese sideside-- >> who's going to blink first and if it's the chinese, what gets them to that breaking point? >> neither is going to blink neither can back down, trump

could of course at any time pause what's happening here by saying there's progress behind closed doors because he has full discretion under 301 but we need to find some kind of compromise solution. the real problem in the 301 case as ustr describes it, china was admitted into the wto with the assumption that it would make reforms to make it into a market led economy, which it has not done, but the government continues to say as a matter of policy it wants to promote so we need to find specific measures that address the industrial policy concerns of the u.s., that the chinese government can also pitch to the chinese public as promoting it's market based policies. >> i mean, something has to be done, ultimately, right? the president is standing up as he would say, and has said, in ways that others haven't in the past what's wrong with that

already, if diplomacy and all these other talks don't work, maybe you need somebody to stand up and say, you know, the buck stops here it's overwith, and it may be messy getting to the point, but it had to be done this way and so be it >> i think that the grievances that are articulated in the 301 case we need to find concrete solutions to this, just thumping our chest is not going to cause positive impact. there's three areas, one is reducing the trade deficit, the chinese are willing to work with that the chinese market opening, and the chinese have expressed they want that as well. and taddressing intellectual property concerns, all of this is a matter of promoting china's policy of trying to deregulate,

bring in market based forces, peeling away those multiple layers of regulation >> they say that, but they don't do it, right i can't tell you how many bankers i have talked to for the last 15 years who told me they were on the verge of finally getting a license to control their entire bank in china and it never, ever happened, they say all those things happened, all that happy talk about opening their market and it seems under xi they have gone backwards, why is that >> that's why we need to change the discussion in the legal access, the central government allows access to effective acce access effective access means not only cutting through that central government policy, but all of those approvals, and all those things that the chinese state-led economy uses those are the kind of practical things that need to come into

the discussion >> thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure, thank you. all right, as we head to a quick break, let's take a look at shares of biogen, they are soaring today after the biotech company says it's new alzheimer's drug succeeded in a mid stage trial for patients receiving the highest dose "squaw "squawk on the street" will be right back don't go away.

time now for our etf spotlight. >> over the course of the last one-month span, the dow and the nasdaq are in unfamiliar territory as those trade concerns overshadow that market. it's been some sectors of the s&p that have really outperformed as investors get in a position for defense spy has fallen around 1.5% year to date up 2.5% at the same time, utility stocks have been the clear winner, that ticker xlu, ending around 10%,

just in one month alone. the recently beaten up consumer staples number you can see you're uparound 5% during that span and a similar gain in the real estate ticker, that ticker xlre, as you can see here, those moves have really been helped along with those general shorter term lower interest rates with treasury yields hitting its high in midway, 1.2%, 1.3%. as we take a look at interest rates, michelle, overall, there has been a driving wind in those sectors. we'll see if there's a trend over the coming days and weeks when we come back, goldman-sachs ceo is going to weh igin on the jobs report.

we have that flattening yield too. don't go away.

good morning, everyone, i'm sue herrera, here's your cnbc news update at this hour secretary of state mike pompeo is making a trip to meet with kim jong-un. he was met at pyongyang by a senior ruling party official eu foreign policy chief meeting with iranian foreign minister ahead of talks on iran's nuclear deal. later, the five nuclear power s minus the u.s. maintained their -- the effort to rescue the

youth soccer team -- the diver, a former thai s.e.a.l. was working in a volunteer capacity. back here at home, singer chris brown was arrested after his concert in south florida last night he was wanted on a felony battery warrant. he was released after paying a $2,000 bond. you're up to date, that's the news update this hour, i will send it back downtown to you big news this morning, the june jobs report, the u.s. adding 213,000 jobs in june, unemployment ticking back up to 3%, but that's because of a lot more people joining the workforce. better than expected job growth, weaker than expected wage growth really good combination if you were getting worried about an aggressive fed, no >> at the margin, it probably makes it all a little bit more reassuring, but there's a lot of

strength in this jobs report as there has been in other indicators over the past few months >> here's what i don't understand, the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year is now down to 28 basis points. it's getting flatter and flatter. what is the problem when we have got great unemployment numbers, when we have got earnings that look really good why is the yield getting flatter when there's concern about the economy? >> there's lower fed policy, so the two-year yield is rising on the back of that, whereas the ten-year yield is influenced by other things, concerns about em, and just the easy monetary policy that a lot of central banks outside the u.s. are running, so i think that's the main reason for the flattening >> is this with goldilocks feels like >> i think this report looks like it, if you look at all of

the indicators together, i do think we're running a risk of overheating the economy. i think we'll move past full employment and the tradeoff between growth and inflation is going to get worse but you just look at this report and it does feel like it >> the fed is going to allow that to happen, to run a little bit hot. >> a little bit hot, and that's in the forecast, so that's okay. but i think in that environment, they're going to continue to raise the funds rate we're at 4, so i do think they will be reacting to it, even though they're not saying, you know, here is the limit on how much the economy can expand. >> you look at copper lately did you see what's been happening here it's getting hammered. a lot of people look at copper as an indicator of where the economy is going >> you look at the copper number, you look at some of the

financial mashrket numbers outse the u.s. there's definitely concern about some of the trade news and just some of the weakness out of the emerging economies you know, we think ultimately that global growth is still going to be pretty good. and even in the end, we're not too worried about a major downturn, but clearly the numbers have been weaker the last two months than they were the end of 2017. >> are you extracting anything from your gdp forecast because of possible trade wars or do you call it a trade war now? >> not significantly we think that the impact of trade in our baseline scenario is still going to be relatively small, at the margin, it probably weighs on growth a little bit probably boosts inflation a little bit but i think if we look at most of the indicators, including the latest round of business surveys, the effect still quite small from a microperspective. mack -- macro is in the lower

numbers. in the 60s, it's a pretty strong indication that business numbers are good >> what they're saying in the fed minutes, trade scaled back because of federal trading policy >> i have to look at the u. numbers, including some of the more forward looking numbers, we have seen some weakening there's been some hit to sentiment in certain areas, but so far it hasn'ting be inbeen a meaningful hit. >> 281 on the ten-year, i know you gave your reasoning for it, with the fed policy remaining on all that but 281 on the ten-year. >> we do think over time long-term yields are going to rise, and i would say, if you

look at the last couple of years, while the level might seem low to you we have seen increases in long-term yields, we were running below 2%, we have been generally drifting higher, and our expectation would be that we get into the threes before the end of this year >> if i told you, hey, the economy is humming, the fed is on this past to tightening, all of these other things happening in the world, and we're at 280 on the ten-year. >> it's a little on the low side and i think more generally, fjt conditi -financial conditions are still quite accommodating. financial conditions are still not really tightening in a way that's restricting growth, the boost from easing financial conditions have definitely diminished but all this is probably helping in terms of the outlook. >> the reason we worry about a flat yield curve is maybe it's going to invert and we'll get a

recession. rick santelli has been talking a lot about this, do you see any chance of yield curve inverting in the next 18 months? >> i think it's possible that the yield curve inverts. the term premium at the long end of the curve is so much smaller than it used to be, so it's much easier to invert the curve, for some of the reasons that we talked about earlier, some concerns around the yen, very easy monetary policy in europe and japan. so the signal is a somewhat different one. this came up in the fed minutes yesterday as well. and the committee also said basically as well, that you can't take these indications entirely at face value basically because of the trump premium, if you look at some of the other indicators that market rates will still rise, you get a different picture of this. i think it's important to keep these other global factors in

mind. >> sounds like you're in the jamie dimon sixth inning camp. am i right >> i think we're getting to a point to where you can't get a lot of additional employment increases, much above longer term potential, because the unemployment rate even at 4% is still very low, but risk of recession in the near term looks extremely low to me. >> good to have you on when we come back, who could benefit from a trade war we'll take a look at the industries set to do just that we're going to speak with urasia group in just a minute china tariffs 25% slapped on american whisky, you can imagine the bourbon distillers are quaking in their boots here. we're inside the old forester whisky aging center.

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a handful of streaming stocks are on a tear, and, no, we're not talking about netflix. more "squawk on the street" coming up.

we're back at first salvo has $34 billion worth of goods targeted on both sides the chinese state newspaper calling the trump administration, quote, a gang of hoodlums when it comes to trade. ian bremer is urasia's president. you called it vastly exaggerated, the trade war >> tariffs of $34 billion

against chinese goods, vs. $500 billion which is what china sends over to the united states. trump has made it clear that he doesn't want to see be seen by the market as the heavy. he also, remember that tweet he put out where he said i don't want to lose so many chinese jobs with that telecom company zte, backed off of bankrupting them as well trump respects the strong man, and he understands, if you're going to push a man around, it's a lot easier to push around the mexicans than the chinese. i'm saying that on the basis of what we have seen from trump over the first year and a half, he's been much more sensitive to markets taking him to task than he has been for rhetoric which is useful in a runup to midterm elections, we are in a high

political season right now >> so the $500 billion is unlikely, is the bottom line >> wilbur ross was on our network the other day or last week saying there's no down side number to the stock market that's going to get the president or the administration to blame you don't believe that >> i also think that blinking is what this president does all the time on every side his unpredictability has been an asset working with the chinese because he knows highway to manage them. he h in er >> he is then at a point of strength, why would he think he needs to blink, isn't it likely the chinese would blink first? >> it's quite possible i think the willingness of trump to engage in a compromise is vastly greater after midterms, once ee -- you've put in your 36

billion and 5$500 billion. >> when all is said and done, tariffs in the world, higher or lower? >> when all is said and done tariffs will end up a little bit higher, bringing the europeans to task will be a little bit more challenging. >> yesterday when we saw this talk about the german automakers and maybe they're going to agree to lower all tariffs and people said, well, look, this could mean when all is said and done, actually tariffs in the world are lower, that would mean the japanese would have lower tariffs into the eu. >> i think that's harder to do, because when you're talking about the europeans, it's not just the german automakers, it's the it tallian oug-- tallian -- st -- automakers let's do a bilateral deal, get out of the eu, that's not going

to happen, right so the trading clock is not going away >> do you think he's right on trade, trump >> no, i think he -- i think there are major problems between the united states and china which have to do with the different nature of those economic systems the chinese are not about tit for tat on trade if they're going to squeeze us, it's not because of the $34 billion, but if they're going to cause more problems in customs, not as many chinese tourists to the united states. >> how do you get them to stop squeezing us >> i think steve bannon back when he was chief strategist, if you're going to hit the chinese hit them now when we're stronger there's something to be said for that but it's hard, i think on the technology piece saying that the chinese are actually a danger.

i would focus on the tech, and i wouldn't focus on the trade as much where we're so dependent on each other >> at the end of the day, do you think tariffs are going to be higher rather than lower >> i wouldn't necessarily suggest that between the united states and china, but i think trump's ability to implement effectively. you've got poilitics in mexico the president just elected with a large majority he wants a deal with nafta, that doesn't mean getting a deal with nafta is going to be easy. so i think the issue here is execution. we have heard about the possible losers of a tlrade war but what about the industries and companies that stand to benefit. co dom joins us with more

>> it doesn't become very messy when it comes to relative winners here because we have seen it play out in the past couple of months here. if you take a look at the russell 2,000 versus the s&p 0 500. you see outperformance in the small cap stocks and the reason why is those small caps are so much more domestically speaking. and that's something that things that continue, that small caps will be the outperformers going forward. that's one portfolio managers take if we take a look at the overall picture for things we could see in terms of stocks that could benefit in terms of the overall industries if you take a look at at least the domestic industries. this is michael rourk, manufacturing companies that are literally made in the usa.

you tiutilities and tell.com the much more defensive. craig hodges over at the hodges fund still likes those domestic steel makers despite the lagging performance they have had over the last couple of months. u.s. steel hasn't really gone anywhere that's craig hodges at the hodges fund and also umc, those shares again not really done a whole heck of a lot over the last couple of months, but he views these domestic steel manufacturers as ones that will stand to benefit if these trade policies stay the way they are we'll see if this plays out with these domestic steel stocks. >> all right, now to a subject i actually know something about. >> bourbon >> yes >> the whisky industry is feeling the pain from the trade war. that is not funny. china's imposing a 25% retaliatory tariff on the u.s. whisky, joining europe, mexico and canada

con te con -- >> yeah, brown tomorrow owns some brands like jack daniels and old for esther in their aging room where the bourbon sits for at least six years. now suddenly bro ll lly brown fn suddenly finds itself slapped with trade tariffs kentucky whisky exports grew 23% last year to $450 million, distillers expect an extended trade war would sour the taste for american whisky and cost jobs more than 17,000 people in this state alone rely on the whisky industry for their jobs. farmers, glass makers, coupers who manufacture the barrels to

entrepreneurs who are building their bourbon tourism business >> the love of bourbon extends past america it's immediately going to damage businesses like us trying to attract those tourists >> brown-foreman told us the opportunity for american whisky in china is important to brown-foreman and we're proud to be building our brands with chinese consumers. accordingly, we welcome the efforts of the trump administration to solve the trade issues between them. that's a much craftier statement. when you put a tariff on kentucky bourbon, it's a gut punch to kentucky. >> kentucky is trump country, right? is that safe to say? >> it is trump country, this is a state that went for trump,

they've got two republican senators, the question here is will it stay trump country in the midterm elections and what they're hearing on the street, some question now was this the right move for kentucky. people who were betting on president trump are maybe having a chance to reconsider whether that was the move. will we see a difference in the elections come fall? it remains to be seen. >> the line producer of the show who is from kentucky whispers kentucky went for trump, but the city you're in did not expressing that urban kind of rural divide we talk about so much. >> louisville. >> that's right. louisville is fairly democratic. it's very modern it's very complex. and very urbane, as you might imagine. so the political sensitivities here are somewhat more varied than you might find in dairy country just an hour away. i got to tell you, kentucky's being hit hard across the state. you've got autos that are being exported now

they're going to be slapped with these tariffs as well. the u.s. chamber of commerce says a billion dollars worth of goods to china are going to get slapped with these tariffs just from kentucky all right. let's send it over to john, he has a look at what's coming up on squawk alley. >> tariffs and tech. we're pretty much in the trade war now. the question is, what impact it has on some of the high flying technology stocks and the technologies that have been poriweng a lot of this growth. we'll dig in coming up on squawk alley.

hey, rick. >> i always love the first friday of every month. employment data. i don't think i've missed being on a trading floor going all the way backto the late 70s. there's something magic about it granted, the markets really don't, especially in the fixed income space, get nearly as crazy as they used to. maybe equities actually get more crazy these days but i can remember many times where interest rates would move in points on the futures, two t three, four points on a big

unemployment day many handles working in the pits we couldn't remember exactly which handle, meaning, if you look up, a 145 handle, 143 handle, those are prices i normally talk yields the point of this is, it's important people understand the apples to apples to apples of how numbers move many things don't give us an accurate accounting of jobs. you three, you four, you five, you six, these are metrics used to give us an idea of how many are employed and unemployed. you three is the standard. that's what every government official will quote. it really doesn't end there. you four, you five, contribute to use six by adding discouraged workers, part-time workers, depending on what timeframe you since last looked for a job. we just moved to 3.8 to 4.

what is it important think about things how can it be that we are this tight on employment, whether it's 3.8% or 4%, why is there no wage pressure? i understand productivity figures into that. i'll tell you why it probably isn't right. it's not accurately telling us the pool of people that really should be counted as unemployed who aren't because as things really get tight, the kind of tight that pushes wages up what you're going to see is what we saw today labor force participation rates moving up .2%. they'll continue to move up because there are millions of people who are unemployed who may not have looked in the last four weeks, but as times improve they will look because they're unemployed back to you. >> all right noted, rick.

i love hearing you wax poetic about being live on the floor in the middle -- >> those were wild days. used to fill orders in the pits in the 80s in the bond market, they used to say you put your house up for auction every day you touch an order on an unemployment friday. >> fantastic, thank you. when we come back, the bad boy of nascar, championship driver kyle busch is going to join us his take on nascar's america first imagine. squawk alley, stay with us in jellyfish. in clinical trials, prevagen has been shown to improve short-term memory. prevagen. the name to remember. with a $500,000 life insurance policy. how much do you think it cost him? $100 a month? $75? $50? actually,duncan got his $500,000 for under $28 a month.

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