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good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i am carl king dow is down 92 busy day of earnings, trade, currency and news and media. our parent company, comcast, dropping is bid for fox assets david favor has been covering this from the beginning and has the latest. >> no surprise, told people it was highly unlikely comcast would follow through for any bid with fox to compete for that $38 a share deal to buy the fox assets that's the case. timing is an issue, given fox meeting, fox vote on this deal scheduled for the 27th of this month. now they're only going to have one deal to vote on. highly likely they're going to approve that deal. $38 a share.

had a chance to catch up with bob iger who is excited to hear the news, looks forward to receiving the necessary approval and integration that's coming to close said transaction to acquire those assets it is a battle brewing for a long time. in fact, prior to disney's first deal that would require fox assets at 28 bucks a share, comcast is coming back after favorable ruling by judge leon in the at&t time warner versus doj lawsuit, with $35 all cash bid topped by 38 from disney, followed by questions. would they come back, try to put something up at a number that would force the fox board to take a close look, overcome any trust hurdles, and what they believe to be at least the favoritism to a certain extent rupert murdoch showed to disney. comcast again chooses, would be

the case to focus solely on buying sky, british broadcaster with a deal for 14.75. it would be $34 billion overall were they to buy all of sky. 39% of it is owned by fox, and fox and disney had bid $14 for the other 61% that floats publicly that's not the winning bid right now. the question is will disney choose to compete there. we told you on friday they seem to make it clear that's a possibility that may not be realized in saying that any increase in debt financing would require disney consent which disney may elect not to provide. the high likelihood now is it's all over fox is going to disney, and more likely than not sky is going to go to comcast, putting to rest for now at least what had been an incredible battle in media

and raising the prospect that down the road disney could sell the 39% of sky to comcast, alternatively as well or part of it, comcast could choose to sell 30% of hulu to disney which will be consolidating its ownership when it buys fox to 60% of hulu. >> david, who is winning looks like comcast succeeded in jacking up the price for disney, perhaps taking some powder off for the other battles they may want to fight. do we have to see what ends up happening with hulu and other things you mentioned >> yeah, i think this is an important component. do they sell that 39%. what's the ultimate cost for comcast to have bought this asset. there are still questions about our parent company strategy when it comes to sky, although we're in the distribution business and certainly know it better than disney would know it there are a lot of content assets that come with sky as well disney certainly had to pay more than intended originally

their first bid, though not accepted, was 23 they got a deal at 28, had to move up to 38. there were many that thought they would have to go higher because they thought that contest would compete at higher level here, john disney gets a lot of what it was originally after, but perhaps to say so long to sky, which some of its own investors questioned in terms of imperative represented for the company. >> stick around. morris, let me start with you. in economics, there's parade optimum where everybody gets their man, no one does any better without hurting another party. are you happy, your firm owns shares of all three players. is this the best outcome you could have expected? >> everybody gets approvals. huge win for all three

companies. i think you have tech savvy smart executives running both disney and come tsa. i think they made the best decision and everybody will win. >> julia, what happens if disney decides not to sell that stake in sky and end up taking the entire pie what happens then for comcast if it plays out that way? >> so right now comcast is the leading bid for sky, and they would be able to buy that 61% that disney/fox do not own the question is whether disney is willing to sell that 39%. i think comcast is ready to move forward. whether they own 69% or the entirety of sky, they would like to own all of sky. the thing for comcast and sky, the reason that deal makes so much sense for them is access sky gives them to the international market comcast is a cable company the cable business is just here

in the u.s. while the entertainment business, nbc universal is more global comcast really sees the advantage of diversifying cable assets overseas. we'll see what happens david makes a good point about potential for comcast and disney to swap a stake in hulu for remaining stake in sky, giving disney a chance to really develop hulu as a full owner or nearly full owner and giving comcast a chance to do more with the entirety of sky. the question is whether these companies, assuming everything goes forward as expected would like to remain in business as partners, whether they'll trade off assets so they don't have to deal with each other as partners as well as just competitors. >> morris, when we were in the throws of this debate, some made the point that disney aside from having to pay up for the asset has to pay for the process of integrating and running them, folding them into the disney

machine. how tough a hill is that to climb? >> it's a real job i made a comment earlier i think disney may be the one company that will prove the exception to the rule. the rule as far as we're concerned is that the direction is ott, television for entertainment. we have seen the model work now for two companies. we believe there's a good chance because disney has so much ip, because it's retained a great deal of talent and relationships with talent that it can really do this. if you look at it in that context, the deal not including sky, i sure hope they do not keep that minority interest of sky. really gives them immediate assets in terms of filling in one of their key franchises, marvel, all these things that

create programming, and add to their other assets secondly gives them a core fox is the leading directv distributor in a country that's just starting to emerge in terms of its ability to afford high quality entertainment, including a distributor known as hot store. i think it is a great deal from disney's point of view is there a lot for them to do? absolutely, but i remember having a brief conversation with bob iger wherein he said i'm all in, this was before this started last february. >> worth noting that disney is -- >> go ahead, julia. >> i was going to say, worth noting disney has laid the ground work for integration. obviously the companies haven't been integrated yet, but disney has already reorganized the company with an international division, with a direct consumer

division in this reorganization takes into account how the new fox assets fit into the company, and looking to make sure they're on top of how to best ex-employed those content assets and figure out how everything works in terms of direct to consumer business. by the time the integration happens, disney will have had plenty of time to figure out how to best make the two companies work together. >> i totally agree. >> david, we're looking at disney wants all of hulu, but disney also has a plan for over the top streaming that will contain all the disney assets. have we seen anybody build two streaming services at the same time, costs, marketing, complexity in terms of messaging involved in that >> no, not necessarily there's a thought you could convert hulu to being the disney product it will become should they not just own 60%, because when they buy fox, that's what it would be, but another 30% if

that deal comes to fruition. then only 10% is held by at&t. so i don't know what the strategy is there. good point hulu is 20 million members on its own, a real business and it certainly seems to help their direct to consumer efforts become more robust >> finally, morris, if you had to add to your position any of these three names at this price, what would it be >> all three but for different reasons. fox, you have to remember, this is now roughly a $50 deal if you value the stock at $12 that's got the most watched news network in the world, which is fox. so that's interesting. i think comcast is really interesting because they have a way now to get value for their entertainment ip by negotiating, by working deals, maybe with disney and maybe with other people we'll wait and see third, they have now balance

sheet in shape to do everything they need to do for their core business which is broadband distribution of content and likely emergence of 5g now you can look at disney as a company. there are questions about earnings as they switch to direct distribution, but they have so many great assets, they have a call now that probably the best way to the extent that we have online sports betting in this country, they're the best way to be exposed. through espn and espn plus, you'll be able to see just about any sports event that you want because they have the technology to show it to you. now you can start looking at disney again >> morris, julia, thank you guys david, nice to put an end to this particular chapter. >> i will be sorry to say good-bye to it, it has been fun.

been a good run. coming up, the commerce department is holding a hearing on auto tariffs. we'll get a live update. and later, pandora -fnd tim westergren is with us. is as easy as dates,, done! simply enter your destination and dates... and see all the hotels for your stay! tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites... to show you the lowest prices... so you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. dates, deals, done! tripadvisor. visit tripadvisor.com

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months amazon reaching $900 billion valuation this week, trading near record levels microsoft getting set to record earnings after the bell. here to break it down, joined by our lead technology analyst. good morning to you guys i am wondering, mark, what you make of the latest competing forces in e-commerce you had amazon's prime day, which despite some glitches seemed to go well for them, then we had ebay earnings that led you to take down your price target >> looks like a tale of two cities here. it has been a tale of two cities if you look at those two, ebay and amazon for the better part of a decade. was about a decade ago, ebay was bigger in terms of market cap and sales, but that changed. the structural challenge is that they're not vertically

integrated consumers want products n.o.w. now, next hour, same day harder for ebay to deliver like that we may be seeing a peek in recovery of ebay in terms of growth rate. the data that came out of amazon prime day, record numbers of new prime subscribers, something we have been watching as an issue, and secondly, 100 million units sold in that time period amazon seems to be clicking on all cylinders right now, ebay is not. >> kirk, you had a bullish note on microsoft and its progress with azure recently saw a tie up with walmart in that department, not being shy, saying this is about taking on amazon, trying to blunt their cloud ambitions. what makes you excited about microsoft? do you expect them to overtake amazon in significant ways how bullish are you? >> i think we're very bullish on

what microsoft is trying to do i would say when you think about public in general, it is not necessarily a mutually exclusive winner and loser category. the pie is growing very fast microsoft is doing an exceptional job at the enterprise level, you could argue taking share within the enterprise this is a growing by that you see a lot of major players doing well our comfort level and bullishness around microsoft stems from the fact that the commercial business is in very good position when you think about not only azure but office 365 properties microsoft when you look at it now is this double digit growing annuity stream when you're an investor and can get low to mid teens compounding earnings and cash flow growth, it is a really unique story across all of tech absolutely within the software universe. >> i want to talk about will

alphabet with that record fine regulatory risks for big cap tec tech stocks, could we see more potential fines to come or is this a sign that the worst has already happened >> i'm going to probably take the latter part, that the worst is behind us, at least seems like investors are thinking that, and i think they're right to think that. that fine wasn't as bad as feared fears were closer to 10 billion. when it comes to android, it is hard to see a market share shift away from android anytime soon, and there's no doubt what's been good for consumers, if you didn't have android, fewer people would have smart phones and would be spending more for them this has been effectively positive, and google benefitted from this, have been aggressively commercial about it, doing things that should be regulated, but it is hard to see at this stage into the game, ten

years into the mobile tsunami that is the internet, how android and google are negatively impacted. hard to see how business practices shift back, and for consumers, you probably hope they don't shift back. we think google now is one of the top three picks. we think we're at peak reg and opex concerns. we like google shares right here right now. >> kirk, real quick, speaking of enterprise, ibm just had earnings numbers pretty good got some top line growth stock is up 3%, but hasn't done that much, 1% in the last 12 months is it being underestimated >> since i don't cover ibm, i will have to defer on that to others >> but you cover cloud i have seen you tracking progress versus microsoft, google and others. >> sure. what i would say about enterprise it spending environment, it is incredibly

robust i think every enterprise any industry understands the need for a broader topic of digital transformation as a result, i think you're seeing more and more companies spend more on an opex and cap ex basis. i think there's a bit of arising tide, lifting all those from enterprise perspective i think the stronger part of that spend is within the cloud when you talk about -- brings you back to microsoft, service now in particular. i think absolutely the macro backdrop combined with digital transformation theme that we're seeing is really good for everyone >> i guess make guys like you cover them again thanks when we come back, why former white house chief strategist steve bannon thinks china will blink in a trade war.

we are halfway back to flat line from lows of the session "squawk alley" continues in a minute >> don't be doomy and gloomy in an overboard sense the american economy is in very good shape >> i am a natural optimist i like where we are. that was vicious that's taken a long time for people to get some elbow room. i think we are there now. >> i think reading too much into the news of the day can get you very nervous, as investors may say oh my gosh, i have to pull back, take everything t ouof the market, wait for the all clear sign and i think that's a mistake.

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welcome back to "squawk alley. we have a statement saying they're bowing out of bidding for fox, which means disney is the official buyer brob iger saying our incredible enthusiasm for this acquisition and the value it will create has continued to grow as we've come to know 21st century fox assets. we're extremely pleased with the news and focus is on completing the regulatory process and ultimately moving toward integrating our businesses bob iger giving official reaction regarding acquisition of 21st century fox. you see comcast shares up 3%, disney up 3% guys, back to you. >> thank you commerce department is holding a hearing on auto tariffs. phil lebeau is monitoring that >> this is the first of two days of the hearing what we're seeing and hearing is

what we expected 45 people from the auto industry, almost all of them are really saying don't do this, don't raise tariffs for imported autos or those exported being impacted they're voicing opposition their big concern, you'll see lower sales and job cuts to echo that point, center for automotive research put out a new study today saying new vehicle prices could go up as much as $6875. that would cause sales to drop as much as 2 million units, not being bought jobs for the industry as a whole could drop by 750,000. it is worth pointing out as you look at annual auto sales, we're on pace now for the fourth straight year of vehicle sales topping 17 million this is the best stretch, best four year stretch the industry has ever had here in the u.s as you look at shares of the big three, they all report earnings next week, and you can bet conference calls will include a lot of questions about how they're preparing for possible

tariffs and what it might mean to the bottom line guys >> lot of money at stake thank you, phil. let's get to seema mody. >> european stocks coming off a one month high basic resources sector including minors are in correction territory as metal prices continue to slide. also weak earnings reports, the latest advertising firm to disappoint with quarterly results. revenue fell in both north america and europe where it suspended business with publishers that couldn't prove they were kplienlt wicompliant new data law and sap under pressure, news overshadowing earnings beat and raised outlook due to strength in cloud business. down 3%. but unilever, sales were hurt by

weak pricing and trucking strike in brazil. they expect a lift from stock prices up nearly 3% lastly, sky set to close lower after comcast dropped the bid for fox assets, deciding to focus on the offer for sky back to you. >> thank you very much. when we return, tim westergren is with us, taking on streaming wars, with the dow down 81. "squawk alley" continues in a moment

i'm michelle car use oh cabrera. here's your cnbc update. president trump railing against the european union fine. he tweeted i told you so the eu slapped a fine against one of our great companies, they have truly taken advantage of the u.s. but not for long. an explosion in an army depot, three seriously burned in southern pennsylvania. it was quickly contained no word what triggered the blast. israel's parliament approved a piece of legislation that defines the country as the nation state of the jewish people prime minister netanyahu said the vote was historic.

opponents say it marginalizes the country's arab minority. jeff zucker is going to take a six week leave from cnn to deal with heart surgery. spokeswoman says he will undergo elective surgery to address a condition he has had for ten years. that's the cnbc news update this hour. let's get back to "squawk alley. jon? >> michelle, thanks. the streaming war, with new challengers challenging the heavy hitters. joining us, pandora founder tim westergren first interview since stepping down from the ceo spot at pandora a year ago great to have you. >> good to be back >> i want to get your take on what the market and industry tells us about the state of

streaming. spotify has market cap up from ipo level from four months ago pandora, just over 2 billion pandora is trying to make a real run of it here why such the extreme difference. is it just the focus on raw paying subscribers >> i think that's been the focus awhile a lot of attention paid to subscription business. spotify has been rewarded for that what's interesting about music, this is often lost, is that music consumption is fundamentally a passive experience most listen to music they want, let the service cure ate the experience for them. that's why radio has been an enduring consumer category pandora, despite an avalanche of competition is the largest streaming service and growing. i think they're making a lot of the right moves strategically, focusing on distribution, building up the ad business, and gradually converting the customer base. i think that story takes time to

tell it is a diverse business, strong for the company. i think you're right that focus has been on paid services to date >> what is the most important strategic asset for these services because as viewers know, there are so many in this game now, apple, google, amazon, as well as pandora, spotify and many others. pandora bet on the music genome project, idea of smarts and algorithm that would give you a better song choice next for that passive experience i don't know that things are panning out that way yet what do you believe is the most strategic asset they can have? >> in music, subscription services, music is fundamentally a commodity, unlike say in video, people often make false analogy to video where you have

sopranos, that's differentiating content. a handful of albums doesn't differentiate one service from another. exclusivities won't be a long term proposition i think the most important part of the consumer experience is personalization. ultimately, what people want is a service that will play the music they love. that means things they know and love and discovery, what makes it a fresh experience over time is being introduced to music you never heard before the way you differentiate is that user experience every service is working hard to do that. in the case of pandora, i think that's been the focus since inception since the genome project. the task is to translate that in the subscription environment into differen-- make this exper uniquely good. it takes awhile to convert from

user base accustomed to a radio product only for a long time that personalization is fundamental. beyond that, distribution has been the cornerstone of progress for the services, so using platforms, partnerships, et cetera, to grow. i think pandora is focusing on those two. >> tim, i want to dig into the comment on the idea it is proven in terms of why it doesn't make sense to create content when it comes to music none of them have created content. so how do you know it is proven? >> what i mean is the exclusive runs that people have, release an album exclusively on a service in effort to draw users from other services. i think that's not proven to work i don't think you can differentiate on content itself. that's the difference between music and say video. >> tim, quickly, sonos, does it

matter, does the market need this neutral broker, neutral party in the market? would you think that company becomes important going up against apple, google, amazon that have their own speaker systems, for example >> i think that company has a healthy future i don't think it is going to compete at a mass market level, but i'm not sure that's their intention. they've long been focused on high quality and smaller segment of the market and have done remarkably well when you consider they compete against much larger companies. in device space, something to watch very carefully here. we're in a world where interfaces are shrinking and disappearing all together. consuming music is less about interacting with a large screen or any screen, it is about voice activation, having some experience when you have no ability to control it in a granular way and that is a strength for pandora. every service is trying to figure out how do i succeed and

thrive in an environment where i have no interface for the consumer. >> tim, great to have you. come back soon. >> nice to be on and see you all again. sat down with steve bannon yesterday, he made clear he doesn't like facebook. michelle joins us with highlights of the interview, specifically about this company. >> steve bannon doesn't just dislike facebook, he hates it. came up toward the end of the interview, tried to cover a lot of topics quickly. lightning round. facebook >> font of all evil -- no, i mean, give me a break. senate testimony, look what he's done i'm a strong proponent, i said this for nine months publicly.

google faced, we should drop the data into public trust, all the companies should get access, opt in or out, should be full price and what the costs are, pay for facebook and google but the data in a public trust, and we cannot, hang on, the con vvergee is scary and they have to be broken up. >> covered a lot more topics talked about china and the president's performance in helsinki see that full interview at cnbc.com we have a page dedicated to it guys, back to you. >> you did, michelle, you covered so much. love or hate, agree or disagree, must watch television. thank you for bringing us that great interview yesterday. coming up, rick santelli,

what are you watching? >> like everybody, watching every nook and cranny on the yield curve. is that a good idea? doesn't seem like recession is anywhere near where we're at we have former fed governor mark olson coming up, yes, we are, to scs l osqutis diusalthe eson after the break. still nervous about finding a new apartment?

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higher as some suggest or is this bull run about to end and payments play getting a call and vallie master is here, talks about stocks he is unloading he will do that in about 15 minutes. >> good one. see you soon, scott. thanks let's get to the santelli exchange hey, rick. >> hi, carl. i would like to welcome my guest mark olson, former fed governor. thanks, mark, for joining me this morning. >> thank you for having me, rick always enjoy being on with you. >> let's go in the way back machine 22 years 1996 new york federal reserve bank had two people do a research paper. many may know of both or one or the other. larry kudlow and many brought up we're looking at the wrong curve, and yes, the research that originally made the curve

such an interesting predictor of recessions was three months to tens b what do you think of that and the complexion of the curve now. >> i think a couple of things. first of all, chairman powell did a pretty good job yesterday talking about the yield curve and why the yield curve is flat and had a pretty good explanation why the short end is where it is because they're removing a combination, and adjusting that rate. exactly why the long end is not moving is a bit of a mystery, and i think when that's the case, when you don't understand what the markets are telling you, you're not listening close enough certainly it means number one that the inflation premium is pretty well gone away. markets do not anticipate that inflation will be anything other than under control. >> interesting now policy in the past, inventory of treasuries and our central bank this afternoon, see what their balance sheet looks

like, many central banks, effects us the same way. do you think that's a distortion, whether you look at three month or two year against tens, there's distortions on the curve. >> clearly because with the accommodation that took place, there's no question but with the feds going in the marketplace, buying the short term treasuries, had a distortive impact on the marketplace. that's one of the reasons that removal of has to be done gradually and consistently important to see how the markets react to that. >> excellent jay powell, his pragmatism is so refreshing had some bull points in some of his talks over both sides of the aisle tuesday and wednesday. and one thing caught my eye. he said the u.s. economy needs to grow faster than debt alls i could think of was is that the dynamic or is the

dynamic the u.s. economy needs to grow faster than congress spends i think it is an important distinction as we try to handicap whether tax cuts are a good or bad thing. your final thoughts. >> jay powell is a financial guy, and he understands it is the debt service capability that's the driver. if the economy grows faster than debt, ability of the u.s. economy to handle that debt is more manageable. i don't think he is endorsing long term deficit spending >> i got you always interesting to hear your insights thank you for joining me jon fortt, iisllou. t a yrs tesla getting a downgrade this morning the analyst joins us next.

tesla overvalued despite falling more than 16% from its all-time high from a year ago. joining us now is the man behind the call thanks for being here. >> thank you >> it was over a month ago that elon musk tweeted they have about three weeks before their short position explodes. i take it you disagree >> yes, i do yes. there are a variety of reasons why we're negative on tesla. the first is we're forecasting lower sales of model s and model

x. i think that gets overlooked by the street if you look at the first half deliveries, they shipped about 44 million that was down 6% year over year. for the model s, it's been down about two quarters in a row on a year-on-year basis so we expect lower unit sales next year for the model x and model s, based on more competition. we looked at the competitive landscape. looking at about 12 different competitor models coming in to the market, 2019, 2020 seven of which are targeting the suv market specifically, including the jaguar ipace as well as five focusing on the luxury market. we anticipate margin pressure on the model s, model x and pricing pressure >> the line that jumped out to me in the report, model 3 cancellations picked up based on our checks we believe refunds

are outpacing deposits >> yes so our view is basically based on information we've been gathering, that the reservation -- the refunds have been declining the cancellations are increasing so the refund rates are increasing, cancellations are increasing if you look at what they said in august of 2017, about 12% cancellation rate. the gross reservations have been declining over the past year they were at 510,000, dropping to 455,000, now at 420,000, despite the fact they delivered 2,0 28,000 already that implies refund cancellations are going up then you ask the question why. what are some reasons. i think some are logical extended wait time for the models second, the expiration of the $75, $7,500 credit. third, some were thinking they

would get a 35,000 base model. that model is not coming out until 2019 we think a good majority or percentage are under the impression they'll get a $35,00d above. that defeats the purpose of their strategy of going to the midrange >> is the bear argument as we know it now a supply argument, they can't make enough to sustain that rate or a demand argument because we have these other entrants "journal" has a story about 400 chinese evmakers out there >> they'll have a hard time in china. china built evs from the ground up so they know how to do evs it's -- the argument is shifting from supply to demand. we still believe there are a lot of production challenges, particularly on the assembly line we think the yields on the battery packs are low. so that means that there's a one to one correlation every battery pack you make,

every car you produce. if the yields are low, there's a lot of defective battery packs they're throwing out we don't think they can be recycled so they might hit certain targets, but it might be sacrificing margins at the expense. the argument now is shifting more to the demand side given the fact they are not necessarily going to have a model 3 base model into the first of next year >> so buyers are inpatient saying why am i on this wait list i'll wait and see what jaguar has. >> we looked at some blogs, kind of read some reviews that even people who are requesting refunds are having a hard time getting them, taking two months to get the refunds so that is one of the reasons we are negative on the stock. >> your thoughts on auto tariffs. you mentioned china. we have tariffs there. that led to price increases on tesla in that market if you were to see tariffs on

german-made cars coming into the u.s., does that make tesla more attractive to luxury car buyers here >> possibly. however the expiration of the credit, $7,500 will start to get reduced. starting in q1 of next year it will go from 7,500 to 3,750 and then phased out. that fueled growth for tesla over the years you cannot discount the fact that the credit is going away. they're trying to push the deliveries into the second quarter so they can push the expiration of the credit into q1 >> so they remain under the cap. >> trying to remain under the cap. if you push them to july 1st versus june 27th, the expiration starts to get reduced q1 versus q4 that's why i think there are a lot of deliveries that they could have recognized in q2 but they'll going to wait to recognize it in q3 >> thank you for joining us

here >> my pleasure keep an eye on that. well off the lows of the session. dow down 66. s&p down 6 "squawk alley" will continue in a moment .

big interview coming up tomorrow tune in at 6:00 a.m. eastern time for joe kernen's interview with the president >> we have microsoft earnings after the bell today ge and honeywell tomorrow morning before the bell. in terms of top performers today, disney and ibm leading the gains. ibm, third straight quarter of revenue growth on the flip side, american express and travelers both the laggards in the dow on disappointing numbers. travelers, it was a weather impact, and the underlying business was strong. >> the expectations feel high for microsoft. now, it's done well consistently in cloud where they talk about azure or office 365. the pc market has been strong, which not a lot of people expected you expect strong numbers there. you wonder how they're feeling going into the second half you want to look at that

comparison between azure cloud growth and amazon web services growth you want color on the walmart deal and more coming like it. >> we will look forward to that tonight. ge in the morning. dow down is almost 70. let's get over to the judge and the half welcome to "the halftime report," the top trade this hour, the great market debate. where your money will work best in the months ahead, whether we are closer to the end of the bull run or setting up for another major move with us today for the hour, joe terranova, steve weiss, john, pete najarian also we begin with the debate that dominated our delivering alpha conference the continuing direction of the stock market not all are in agreement on where it will go >> when you get to this point in