office." that from dan loeb lee, congratulations on your career, and selfishly, maybe this means you'll spend a little more time with us, but we wish you nothing but the best >> thank you for all the visibility you've given me over the years. more than i deserve. >> we'll talk to you soon. lee cooperman. that does it for us today. "power lunch" starts now >> love you, lee >> hard to follow-up that touching moment, right we're going to try i'm michelle caruso cabrera. strong earnings fueling the bulls. the dow is up 25,000 nasdaq getting record highs. is a bigger break-out ahead, and is there still value in the market president trump tweeting up a storm saying tariffs are the greatest his comments come as the white house prepares for emergency aide for farmers, which are calming the escalating trade war. trump speaking right now that's a live picture. is the get tough approach working? call is it air bnb for your car.

what's it going to mean for sales? power lunch starts right now welcome to "power lunch. i'm melissa lee. nice rally this hour the dow and s&p 500 on pace for their biggest monthly gains since january. the nasdaq just turned negative, but did hit a record intraday high earlier today energy materials, the best performing sector. check out some etf's on the move right now. the xlk, which tracks technology hitting a new intraday all-time high the fxi, which tracks china on pace for its best day since march, and check this out. bitcoin continues its rally. jumping above $8,000 now up more than 30% in one month. the recent gains mostly boosted by reports of institutional investor interest. tyler. >> thank you very much welcome, everybody i'm tyler matheson we begin, why not, with this rally. more than 200 points on the dow right now. a slew, yes, a slew of strong earnings driving the bulls

today. >> nasdaq just quit -- tesla is down netflix is down, but earnings are what are moving things particularly some of the dow earnings today just take a look here. united technology, they've raised their guidance. nice beat. 3m, good numbers although they did lower the top end of the guidance. i think this hurt them a little bit. verizon beat on better wireless subscriber growth. other earnings out there, alphabet took a $5 billion charge that really messed with their earnings growth was tremendous. that stock is up avery dennison, they do all of the stick-maems that are out there, and some of the stuff that's related to various office supplies they raised their full year guidance to talk about the strengthening of the dollar. a lot of companies talked about strengthening of the dollar. higher than expected costs kimberly-clark did they're up whirlpool said they were weaker in europe, and you see that down rather notably we have a few market headwinds coming in here in the middle of earnings season. generally good, but the high ers rates, there's a rising dollar, and some people are referencing

tariffs or higher costs in general. particularly when you are dealing with commodity costs energy is up about 1% today. not independent of the earnings. i just say very nice moves here, because the dow is being helped by mobile, and chevron on the up side apache in the other expiration petroleum stocks doing really well finally, one of my favorite stocks just record in the middle of the day lvmh is one of the luxury good retailers in the world they closed in europe, and they reported after hours we don't have any trading going on, but the numbers look good. just remind everybody, i want to know what the one-percenters are doing. the number one champagne maker in the world lvmh of course, number one in leather goods with louis vuitton, number one, cognac maker, and i think near number four in watches right now. what a monster that's been probably up 80% in the last two years as the rich just keep getting ripper guys, back to you. >> you're the one who is so familiar with the product line i'm very impressed i assume you're a user

>> i don't know anything about any of that stuff, of course >> that is more of a gucci kind of guy >> being an italian. >> mr. luxury. >> all right bob, thanks. >> no comment. >> all right an important week for the american economy on friday we'll get our first look at second quarter gdp many are predicting a big number steve liesman joins us with more on what to watch and where the strength is coming from. steve. >> yeah, melissa, you may want to put your seat belt on for this one we're looking for a big number it's over my left shoulder here. take a look. we've been running, you know, twos and threes in here. two over here. we're looking for a 4.2% that's the cnbc rapid update medium average here, and it's one of the stronger ones we've had. do you have volatility here? well, even it out for you. this is the four quarter average. this number here 3.1 over time we've shown it's subject to the least revision. bottom line, it's running quite a bit stronger than it has been running. a 3% average 2% average must have been who is where on the estimates here.

>> are we at a new trend let's dive into the numbers. what we're using here is actual economics numbers. they do a very good job of telling us how they got to their forecast.

>> some of the trade number could reflect the strong economy, but also, some of the buying and selling before the election i'm sorry, before the tariffs took place inventories also would play into the trade number housing is the only real measure. really an economy firing on all cylinders, tyler, and the question that investors have to ask themselves, what is temporary and which parts are here to stay >> all right, steve. thank you very much. our first guest today is out with a new note on the four biggest risks for investors. he takes a little bit, maybe a little bit of exception with what steve has just reported jim paulson is chief investment strategist with the -- he says the real risk faced by investors is not excessive overvaluation, but the potential for recession. jim, welcome you are not predicting a recession. you look at four sort of

variables that have pointed that direction in the past, and none of them seem to be lined up squarely aiming at a recession, but another variable that you are concerned about is what is known as the earnings yield. what is it what is it telling you why is it important? >> well, the real earnings yield has had a pretty good track history for the post-war period, tyler, of kind of giving you an idea of future return potential. right now the real earnings yield has fallen right to the cusp of its lowest quarterile of post-war history, which is getting into over valuation territory, no doubt. i do think the market is highly valu

valued. >> you say nearly 85% of bull markets since 1945 ended when the real earnings yield was in the first or second quarterile and currently it sits right in the middle of this range so that sounds like it's flashing a yellow warning light to you if that is the case, if i'm hearing you correctly, what should i do with my money? i'm curious to note that you suggest maybe cutting back on the fangs, adding some international, and adding interestingly, gold and

commodities. >> most of the issues are more pronounced here than they are abroad overseas market are under-owned, under-valued they have more accommodative policy officials a number of good attribute utilitiattributes, i think. i would raise little cash. if we do hit another air pocket and go below february lows, there's going to be a lot of panic, and you'll have some dry powder available as people give away good assets i would also, as you said, add -- or substitute for equities a commodity etf we're at full employment gdp, as steve just said, might print a nominal number in the fives to six range against a 4% unemployment rate. that's going to be good for commodities, i think

i would diversify my sector exposure now i would buy inflationary beneficiaries. that would be like the stuff that's -- industrials. energy and materials yeah >> it's michelle here. i'm sorry to interrupt ooib ivanka trump is stopping her clothing line, which made me think, i want to ask you very and effectually wrrks yo is it that we're getting long in the tooth here >> i don't think it has as much to do with politics. the four things that i'm watching for their cycle in, michelle, has to do with the yield curve reverting, which we don't have the leading economic indicator rolling over, which still hasn't happened, but excessive private sector behaviors because of high confidence we're starting to get that and, finally, overall i think that the age of this recovery

sort of, you know, begets more concern about the potential for this to end. >> it's returning to the mean, eventually eventually is happens. jim, good to have you on thank you. >> thank you $35 billion in two-year notes are up for action. rick san toll santelli is trac action >> the man is slightly above average. i gave the auction a c-plus. the yield at the dutch auction, 2.657. $35 billion, two-years that is the highest yield at auction going all the way back to july of 2008. that shouldn't surprise anybody. that's where yields are trending, of course. 2.657. and if you look at the bid to cover, it was the best since january of this year 2.92 everything else goes pretty average. 45% indirect smack dead on ten auction average. 14.3 direct is a little light pricing it where it should be. everything else was just about average.

c-plus keep in mind, we have $101 billion in supply this week. tomorrow will be $36.5 billion followed by -- if we get towards the middle of the curve, it's going to be very interesting to see how that five and seven year go michelle, tyler and the gang, back to you. >> thank you, rick all right. we've got a news alert on something we just mentioned. ivanka trump, let's head to robert who has more details. robert >> michelle, indeed. ivanka trump is closing her namesake fashion brand it was announced by the company president. abigail clem, who said she informed the 18 employees that they were shutting down ivanka trump is set to address this staff later today. ivanka saying in a statement after 17 months in washington i do not know when or if i will be able to return to business, but i do know that any focus for the foreseeable future will be the work i am doing here in washington now, remember, this is a brand that has come under a lot of controversy recently and was dropped by nordstrom last year hudson bay recently dropped it from canada. more importantly, as the president focuses on the made in

the usa program, many of ivanka trump's products -- in fact, most of them -- are made in china and overseas she was getting a lot of criticism for that as well again, it doesn't say whether she's going to put it on pause or reopen, but for now the ivanka trump namesake fashion brand is shut down one other point to make here she said the main reason for this wasn't the soft sales, but it was that she was required to do too much with the conflict of interest rules regarding her work in the white house and making it difficult to truly run this company and perhaps run it profitably she is citing the conflict of interest rules that made it difficult to run this company and the ivanka trump brand is no longer guys, back to you. >> all right, robert thank you. robert frank president trump tweeting tariffs are the greatest, but do america's farmers agree with him? we'll tell you what the trump administration is doing to shore up support in the heartland.

plus, red it co-founder sits down with us to talk tech, bitcoin, and fake news versus free speech. we will bring you the numbers from the biggest week of earnings season. that is all ahead. stay with us here on "power lunch. i think we should do that meeting tomorrow. well wait. what did you think about her? it's definitely a new idea, but there's no business track record. well, have you seen her work? no. is it good? good? at cognizant, we're helping today's leading banks make better lending decisions with new sources of data- so, multiply that by her followers, speaking engagements, work experience... credit history. that more accurately assess a business' chances of success. this is a good investment. she's a good investment. get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital.

are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi.? a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome.

welcome back to "power lunch. the trade war between the u.s. and china heating up, and now the trump administration is preparing massive emergency aid to american farmers. kayla is in washington with the details. hi, kayla. >> melissa, the relief package is expected to be rolled out this afternoon according it a source familiar with the situation. the goal of the $12 billion is to soften the blow of retaliatory tariffs from china and europe that have caused export costs to soar and the market price of crops like soybeans to drop the president ordered the u.s. department of agriculture in april to study relief for farmers after china initially unveiled its plan to retaliate against american farms industry sources expect the aid to be disbursed through existing usda programs providing

temporary income support for certain covered crops and potential targets of this package would be dairy, pork, and soy products some free trade groups and republican lawmakers are already saying it's not enough nebraska senator ben sasse called the funds bail-outs saying the trade war is cutting the legs out from under american farmers, and the white house's plan to spend $12 billion on gold crutches. president trump visiting missouri today and iowa tomorrow where a lot of this retaliation hits home, and he could hear an earful from voters michelle >> yeah, we'll be watching for that for sure. thank you, kayla while president trump is planning on that aid for farmers, he still is defending tariffs. in a tweet this morning the president wrote "tariffs are the greatest either a country which has treated the united states unfairly on trade negotiates a fair deal, or it gets hit with tariffs. it's as simple as that, and everybody is talking remember, we are the "piggy bank that's being robbed. all will be great. joining us is former indiana

congressman david mcintosh, who is now president of the club for growth david, good to have you here >> great to be with you. >> do you think tariffs are great? >> no. i think they're a disaster because it's americans that pay the tariffs. that's the problem it's costing us half a million jobs it costs americans more. it's hurting farmers, as you just reported. the better goal that the president articulated earlier is let's go to zero-zero tear ofs with these countries, and then everybody will prosper >> yeah, but nobody wants to do that did you hear what he did when he proposed that up at the g-7? they all ran europe doesn't want to give up their agriculture securities we're entrenched ourselves >> we jaus just gave $13 billion to farmers >> it's the wrong response we shouldn't be subsidyizing them further go to the zero tariffs and let the market work. i did notice the automakers stepped up and said, yeah, we could see reducing tariffs in

europe that may be a sector where we could see progress towards that zero-zero goal >> david, i'm curious. you said a half a million jobs are lost or have been lost because of the tariffs where is that data coming from, and what are the projected impacts because we've only seen tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods so far >> that was a combined number for the job loss due to the aluminum and steel, and basically secondary industries that use alum pneumonia and steel as ab input are having to reduce their costs go up employ, therefore, they're less competitive in the marketplace the second one was the initial round of trade with the 25% with china. one thing i saw recently came from the tax foundation where they projected that if the president went all the way at the $500 billion level with china, it would completely erase the pro-growth benefits of the tax cut, which we supported and champions and spent a lot of time getting past.

it would be unfortunate if now it's all undone with this tariff war. >> are you saying that a half a million jobs have already been lost because of this or that they are in danger of being lost and will we see that in the employment report that comes up in the first week of august? they keep adding more. >> when you look at united states versus chooiina, a lot o people say, yes, all the things you say are true they are hurting the u.s. economy in some ways, but they are hurting china far more, and that's the president's goal. >> well, let's see if that is the right goal the better goal is the zero-zero tariffs. let's be trading with china and both countries benefit his view is i have to inflict pain on them to bring them to the table. unfortunately, a lot of that pain is bouncing back and hitting us here at the u.s >> so to the point of you being

concerned about wiping away all the potential gains from tax reform, david, how do you feel about tax plan 2.0 that is scheduled to be unveiled, and also, do you think that the president has a point in saying, you know what, i don't want the fed to raise interest rates two more times we're putting a lot into the economy and raising rates would be a headwind. >> i'm kpied about the tax cuts 2.0. it makes the individual tax cuts, which the democrats have complained about they said it should right back done in the first version. let's do it now. it also includes a lower rate for many of the so-called pass-throughs. the llc's and subchapter s companies that are small businesses beyond that, we were hoping they would fwhopefully reduce the capital gains rate that's the next big pro growth opportunity for congress we'll see if they can get it into this bill, which is right before the election, or if that's something that has to build momentum over time >> mr. mcintosh, thanks for

joining us we really appreciate it. >> good to be with you speaking about trade, president trump is talking trade right now at the veterans convention in kansas city, missouri. the veterans of foreign war. let's listen in. >> i mean, i saw a piece on nbc today. nbc. not just cnn cnn is the worst, but i saw a piece on nbc it was heart-throbbing they were interviewing people. they probably go through 20, and then they pick the one that sounds like the worst. they went through a group of people in fact, i wanted to say i got to do something about this trump. terrible and that piece was done by the lobbyists and by the people that they hire. it was a total setup this country is doing better than it's ever done before economically this is the time to take off the

rip-off of tariffs we have to do it you know, other countries have tariffs on us. when i say, well, i'm going to put tariffs on them, they all start screaming, he is using tariffs. china charges us when we make a car 25% tariff we charge them 2.5%. other than that, it's a fair deal okay?

>> weave created 3.7 million jobs since election. african-american, hispanic, says and asian-americans, unemployment has reached the lowest levels ever recorded in our country's history. the lowest levels. unemployment lowest levels. remember, i used to say i said it here. what do you have to lose i was right. women's unemployment recently

achieved a 65-year low lowest in 65 years. >> 18 years september to good when you hear history in 65 years. 18 years, and i'll guarantee within a month or two months at 18 we'll have even a much higher number take great care of our vets. consumer business and manufacturing confidence has reached its all-time highs confidence is all-time high. we've cut a record number of job killing regulations. no president, no matter how long they had been in office, even though we're only here for a short time, has cut anywhere

near the regulations >> it will take 20 years to get approval to build a highway. we're trying to get it down to one. we have it to about two. we're trying to get it to one. if there's something that's wrong, we're not going to approve it but we're not going to take a process 20, 21 years and then raise your hand that it's not approved we'll let you know >> president trump speaking at the annual convention for the veterans of foreign war. defending his tariffs again. also, counting very good unemployment numbers and also bragging about cutting regulation under his administration thus far. if there's any other news making comments that he says during the speech, we'll bring them to you. straight ahead here on "power lunch" the co-founder of reddit, alexis, sits down with us to talk crypto currency and social media, and the role in fighting fake news. you don't want to miss this. power lunch coming back in two minutes.

with the new chase ink business unlimited card i get unlimited 1.5% cash back. it's so simple, i don't even have to think about it. so i think about mouthfeel. i don't think about the ink card. i think about nitrogen ice cream in supermarkets all over the world. i think about the details. fine, i obsess over the details. think about every part of your business except the one part that works without a thought your ink card. introducing chase ink business unlimited with unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase. chase for business. make more of what's yours. wlet's do it. ? ♪

come on. this summer, add a new member to the family. at the mercedes-benz summer event. lease the glc300 for $429 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.

is part of a bigger picture. that bigger picture is statewide mutual aid. california years ago realized the need to work together. teamwork is important to protect the community, but we have to do it the right way. we have a working knowledge and we can reduce the impacts of a small disaster, but we need the help of experts. pg&e is an integral part of our emergency response team. they are the industry expert with utilities. whether it is a gas leak or a wire down, just having someone there that deals with this every day is pretty comforting. we each bring something to the table that is unique and that is a specialty. with all of us working together we can keep all these emergencies small. and the fact that we can bring it together and effectively work together is pretty special. they bring their knowledge, their tools and equipment and the proficiency to get the job done. and the whole time i have been in the fire service, pg&e's been there, too. whatever we need whenever we need it. i do count on pg&e to keep our firefighters safe. that's why we ask for their help.

hello, everyone. i'm sue herrera. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. house speaker paul ryan dismissing president trump's plan to revoke security clearances from top national officials as just a mild form of trolling rather than a serious attack on dissent. >> now he is trolling people, honestly this is something that's in the purr view perview of the executive branch. some people keep their clearances that's something that the

executive branch deals with that's not in our perview. i think he is just trolling people >> israeli prime minister netanyahu called the reported breach of israeli airspace by a syrian fighter jet a gross violation of the agreement the israeli military says it shot down the jet after it flew two kilometers into israel territory wrer pepper edge farms -- they say the supplier of a whey powder used in those crackers may be -- no illnesses have been reported so far. you are up-to-date that's the news update michelle, back to you. >> i hope it's not the cheddar ones >> i don't know if it is >> yesterday it was ritz crackers told goldfish. >> what are we doing >> all the staples of mile an hour -- my diet are at risk. >> it all has to do with the whey powder. that's the problem >> thank you, sue. >> you got it. >> let's get a check on the markets right now. stocks are moving higher in the back of earnings the nasdaq in the red after hitting an all-time high even though google is doing

well industrials higher by 150 points they were up 170 still .25% as i mentioned, nasdaq was lower by 22 points a decline of a quarter of a percent. energy and materials are leading the way for anything that's in positive territory real estate and utilities are lagging. s&p energy and materials sector higher by more than 1% melissa. >> michelle, bitcoin is up another 6% hitting its highest level since may. the next guest vc firm was one of the earliest investors in coin base, and after co-founding one of the most popular web sites in the world, reddit, he has decided to step away to focus full-time on investing in start-ups and mentoring the next generation of entrepreneurs. joining us is alexis co-founder of reddit and venture capital firm initialize capital. alexis, great to have you on >> great to be here. >> i want to talk about bitcoin. where do you see it going from here, and is the price of bitcoin or any coin for that matter a reflection of the robustness of the underlying

platform >> you know, bitcoin has had quite a bit of battle testing over the years, and it is certainly the most robust and certainly one of the best proofs of crypto being a possible store of value, but when you start going down the list of crypto currencies, you very quickly run into a bunch that are far less robust and far more, frankly, fraudulent what this is more than anything else is a changing sign of the times. this technology in the blockchain is enabling things like bitcoin to work and to scale and as volatile as it's been, we see it continuing going up over the long-term because more and more people are going to look for alternatives feed off as we see states failing and other uncertainty that makes having a digital store of value like bitcoin something that's desirable. you don't have to worry about withdrawing it from a bank or

the value disappearing as a government money >> we're showing to the audience the comments that you made to fortune. justin may and your predictions. bitcoin to 20,000. ethereum to 1,500 by the end of the year do you stand by that >> people can call me out if i'm wrong. i stand by that. we're not in the -- we're want in the business of speculating on the sort of short to medium term prices. the reason we were that first check in coin base was because we believed in the underlying technology we felt that if this worked, if blockchain and this notion of decentralized currency would work, there would need to be someone to handle the fiat to crypto transfer, and we thought coin base would be the winner, and so far they've proven out to be >> you invested in coin base as opposed to putting the same amount of money into portfolio of coins through initialized capital. does that mean that you think that the greatest games to b had within the crypto industry is actually the businesses

supporting the trading of this, want issing the platforms as opposed to the -- themselves >> we want to bet on the picks and shovels. because we're a vc firm, we're looking for still actually old school equity investments. we actually haven't participated in token sales and co's becaus we want to own equity in companies and because we really believe that there is going to continue to be a ton of wild speculation in the actual coin world and coin arena what we're looking for are the people who are building the robust very unsexy infrastructure that's probably not going to make a headline any time soon, but it's very quiet by going to build the infrastructure that all these things are going to ultimately need to work those are the types of businesses >> do you believe that the world's governments will let crypto currencies become rivals to their stores of value to fiat currencies that's number one. number two, speaking of block chain, i've heard it said that block chain may dwarf in ultimate impact the worldwide web. do you agree with that

>> yes so i think plenty of states may try to stop and some already have the rise of crypto currencies that would present challenges to their fiats the internet as a technology -- i think people will still find a way. i don't think -- look, i'm not calling for the end of fiat or anything like that i do think, though, that the technology represents a real viable alternative that is showing more and more credibility over time, and it's still very volatile, but in the long-term has a unique value, and with regard to your second question, yes, i think if things play out as we hope they will, there's a chance for a kind of new internet to be created built on top of this infrastructure. one where we can look at the things that worked and the things that didn't, but the first sort of web, and improve upon them. even just the idea of being able to browse with a store of value is something the first internet

couldn't really have, and that has basically a lock down of a whole portion of the world that doesn't even have credit cards, but does have an internet connection today >> interesting choice where crypto currency could go though i just don't understand what issues you have with small cars can we talk about the potential for rising interest rates? that was a joke. he didn't get it he didn't get it >> those fiats >> it's okay he is a new dad. his mind was clouded >> dad brain it's dad brain that's all it is >> there has been a tremendous amount of money rushing into your world because, in part, interest rates are low people are desperate for yield he this put money in places -- are you waiting for interest rates to go up so that way you can get rid of all these johnny come latelies or joanna come latelies so i can be inclusive as is the style these days, so you can really get access to good companies without having to compete with all these people? >> we love the competition we feel like we have an unfair advantage given the talent we have in initialized as well as

the software we've built to help run our fund yes, you are absolutely right. there's -- it is -- the world is awash in capital seeking yield, which i know sounds probably pretty counter intuitive to some recent college graduate with a ton of student loan debt that's the reality right now great founders are going to be able to find capital we want to make the case for where we're the best source of early stage funding, and, look, frankly, i actually think there are far more ideas that maybe get started because if you look around, there's a lot of broken things we can fix through technology and improve through business and i want to back those bold founders. i want to be one of the people to write them that first check >> alexis -- >> please. i was just going to say, you were there when megan wed harry with your wife how was the wedding? >> it was really wonderful >> are you not allowed to say anything more than that? did they make you sign an nda? >> out of respect for the couple i can say one thing. there was some fake news about

my wife playing beer pong at the afterparty i can say that did not happen. >> okay. that's good to know. >> i'll bet she would be good at it, though >> if she had, she would have won. >> she would have won. >> all right, alexis i want to ask you about 1850 brand partnership. this is a coffee that's geared specifically towards millenials. why do millenials need their own coffee why doesn't starbucks or dunkin' donuts or the host of other coffee brands out there appeal or serve millenials? >> well, i think part of it is just the sort of the caliber of the coffee you know, i take mine without any milk i don't want any sugar i just want to taste really good, great coffee the folks at 1850 have engineered a brand that just, frankly, tastes really good. it's a high quality coffee, and, you know what, it helps get us through the day as entrepreneurs, and i was really intrigued because they engineered an entire campaign around this 1850 bold project so

that we could get ideas from people all over. you're seeing this bold pioneer contest on the screen right now. i want to see ideas from people all over the country, so _#1850 bold pioneer, and you can have a chance to -- >> the two-year yield. the five-year and ten-year hitting their highest level since june where are rates head from here joining us to discuss, the bond markets, jim biancao, president of biancao research. jim, welcome good to have you with us where do you see rates going, and i assume that the catalyst could be for higher rates would be if the european monetary authorities or the bank of japan start to reverse their current policies >> that's right. when you ask about rates, you got to break it down

short rates up short rates up because chairman powell said. he wants to raise rates. the two-year note that you noted is up 55 basis points in the last six months. the fed has raised rates 50 basis points in the last six months it's almost a one for one deal there. as far as the rest of the world goes, as you mentioned, we believe that it's been central banks buying up securities or quantity takive easing that is driven interest rates post-crisis. the fed has reversed, but they've been more than offset by the ecb and the bank of japan. now, the bank of japan is making noise about ending their qe, and you started to see that the ten-year jgb had its worst day in two years rates are starting up. short rates up long rates, up a little bit because what's lacking there is inflation. we all say it's coming back, and we all want to believe it's coming back, and we've been saying that for five years there's really not quite conclusive evidence that it's coming back. in other words, the yield curve flattens from here

>> i would like to get your thoughts on the president's comments about the fed last week and whether you think it will have any effect either direction on what the fed might do autohe says he is not going to get in the way of the fed. he expressed his opinion already nominated almost a full slate of candidates, including jay powell, rich clarida from pimco to be the dharm chairman and a number of fed governors. there's not a lot he can do other than stamer about that he doesn't like rates are going higher, so i don't think it's going to change anything for the fed, and i don't think the fed should be particularly worried about it for at least right now. >> all right, skbrim always gra et to see you thank you. jim biancao of biancao research. >> one of the first beneficiaries of the trump tariff plan now says their

bottom line is actually getting hit because of other tariffs the price of steel and aluminum hurting them whirlpool earnings and their turn around. stay with us on power lunch. get up to $2500 customer cash on select 2018 nx 300 models. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

skbro contessa brewer has more >> whirlpool ceo blames a number of factors for the disappointing earnings a trucker strike in brazil costs 30% of sales roughly $20 million impact net sales in europe, the middle east and africa are off by 9%. that was a $30 million impact. they're replacing the president in europe because of it. there was an unexpected drop in demand in north america. whirlpool has now lowered its full year guidance roughly $1 lower than consensus expectations estimating the company will pay an extra $250 million because of the rising cost of freight, fuel, and raw materials like resins and

especially steel >> costs have risen substantially, and in particular in the u.s., they have reached unexplainable levels while the u.s. steel has historically priced at a premium to the rest of the world, most leently u.s. steel is 50% more expensive than the rest of the world, and simplery cannot be explained by the cost says >> he says he expects demand in north america to resume to see industry growth of up to 2% and margin improvement of 12%. he says the economic fundamentals in america are stronger but he says the uncertainty surrounding these tariffs is definitely a challenge. guys, this is a big change for january when they were touting these 20% washing machine tariffs as a boom for whirlpool. >> it's fighting them the other way instead of helping them. thank you, contessa. joining us to discuss is the vice president of housing research at cabelli and company. >> thank you for having me on. >> there are a lot of numbers in this report.

first, whirlpool is thrilled when the president puts tariffs on washing machines. they are so happy. then, oh, you are also going to put them on steel and alum pneumoni -- alumin aluminum, and now our input costs have riz ip. it really has turned around on them >> when you look at the guidance of raw material inflation, they moved it from $350 million up from $250 million to $300 million for the year, which is a pretty big move up, and a big part of that is related to the tariffs and the rise in steel. mark bitzer on the call did say steel prices in the u.s. are 50% higher than the rest of the world. >> was their ability to push price in their washing machines and across the other pipeline. >> did he express any regret about being supportive of tear ofs in the first place on washing machines >> you can definitely see that there is -- he expressed some

uncertainty around what kind of an impact tariffs will have going into the second half it's definitely having an impact on margin, and, again, it's still too soon to see what's going to happen, but definitely positive and negatives for them. >> there could be a double whammy here. housing sales and mortgage apps, the numbers have been trending downward >> right >> over the past three months. is that a worry for them is it a worry for you? >> yes existing home sales have been trending downwards for me since the beginning of the year i saw it something as expected at 5.5 million existing home sales last year we're looking at probably a good 500,000 homes above what traditionally in the u.s. economy does, and i think one of the main reasons for that is new home sales has been much lower so when you look at overall housing demand, you've seen higher existing homes off of offsetting some of the smaller supply >> they're going down, right they're going down a little bit. >> average selling prices are so strong repair and remodel demand continues -- >> that would help whirlpool

>> absolutely will, yeah, it would. >> you bring in your laundry rool and bring in new stuff. >> the housing boom was ten years ago. the replacement cycle would be kicking in anyway for all these machines >> that's right. >> in terms of northright. >> in terms of north america, is blaming higher input costs ones things like that is that just an excuse for just losing market share in north america right. >> i mean, the volumes are down sharper than the overall industry, right. >> absolutely. so the big question with whirlpool has always been the ability to hold margin versus market share and it's clear from the outcome that we just saw that ner losing market share, despite them driving aggressive price mix it's -- they need to find a better balance in terms of how to drive that. if you look at the first half shipments are flat even though q 2 is down, and the 1 to 2% full year shipment growth is a reasonably

expectation. >> is 14%, the decline of 14% which is sharp, is that a show of what their business is doing i mean if you took out the impacts of tariffs would you still see a decline in whirlpool shares because the business is slowing down. >> i think you would see a decline. and a topic we haven't talked about is europe. i think the european struggles have been more persistent than originally thought higher magnitude and it's taking more time to turn that around. >> if ner losing share who is gaining. >> i would say lg and samsung are gaining share. >> the ones getting hit with tariffs in this country. >> that's right. >> but european they won be affected by that obviously. >> right. >> okay. >> thanks for come in we appreciate it. >> no problem. >> general motors making a bold move in the world of car sharing. airbnb for the car we tell you how it works straight ahead on "power lunch." kayak searches hundreds of travel and airline sites

to find the best flight for me. so i'm more than confident. how's your family? kayak. search one and done. with tough food, your dentures may slip and fall. new fixodent ultra-max hold gives you the strongest hold ever to lock your dentures. so now you can eat tough food without worry. fixodent and forget it. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. you'll only pay $4.95. [stomach gurgles] ♪when you have nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea... girl, pepto ultra coating will treat your stomach right. nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, diarrhea.♪ try new pepto with ultra coating. is it to carry cargo... greatness of an suv? or to carry on a legacy?

its show of strength... or its sign of intelligence? in crossing harsh terrain... or breaking new ground? this is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedes-benz summer event, going on now. receive up to a $1,250 summer event bonus on select suvs. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. where we're making the next generation of multiscreen welcadvertising possible.ght, we have the broad and targeted reach you need to access the customers you're looking for on tv and digital platforms. then we connect you to our team of media experts, who are ready to help you maximize your budget while elevating your advertising effectiveness.

sounds like an advertising opportunity knocking. visit comcastspotlight.com today. are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi.? a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. general motors launching a service the can company hopes will become the airbnb for cars. phil lebeau here to explain. hi. >> this is about peer to peer car sharing. there is two kinds one where the company owns the car and you rent it out for an

hour at a time gm has that with may haven now it expands to include peer to peer car sharing on the may haven app and through the subsidiary car sharing for gm will only be open to those who own a 2015 or newer model. and here is how it works let's say you own a gm vehicle or you are leasing a gm vehicle. you can put it on the may haven app. the renters will be preapproved if somebody rents your vehicle a couple of hours, days, whatever you decide you keep 60% of the revenue. may haven gets the other 40% by the way i've gotten in question from a number of people how many people really do peer to peer car sharing? it's more than you would imagine. we have reached out to the consult consulting firm alex partnering, estimating 2 to 3 million car sharers in the u.s., a lot not active some only once in a while. the rates vary depending on the vehicle, how long you rent it. turo and get around they lead

the peer to peer but general motors wants to play in. as you look at shares of general motors they have 150,000 may haven subscribers. they believe they would be active in the market if you will tomorrow morning is when general motors reports q 2 numbers you don't want to miss the interview with chuck stephens, the cfo of jrnl motor. we talk about this, state of the business, and it's a big day for auto earnings, hearing from ford later in the day after it releases earnings on the closing bell we will talk with bob shanks, the cfo of ford busy day. >> back to car sharing, what if they wreck your car. >> it's insured. >> who pays for it. >> it's part of the -- if you pay as the renter you are paying that insurance and it's -- the insurance is done through general motors. and it's similar to what you get

with tour o and get around we have had the question before. what if i rent out the car and somebody cracks it up. >> >> right. >> there is insurance. it's not like you're stuck going wait asfwleekd what if they crash it. >> i know be, and the maintenance of it. gets dirty >> it is a business. it is a business nothing is for free. >> thank you, phil we are two days in the busiest week of the year for earnings, the stocks and sectors leading the pack plus a new report saying consumers are cutting the cable cord faster than previously thought. we are telling what you it mns r content providers. second hour of power lunch rgs begins on the other side of this break. or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence.

before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

good afternoon it's 2:00 p.m. in the east well to hour number two of "power lunch." here is what you will be feast on this hour earnings, fueling stocks today as companies from a broad range of industries beat profit estimates. can the streak last what does it mean for your portfolio. >> cord cutting concerns new data indicate the trend may be accelerating faster than thought. people ditching old style cable. who which companies most at

risk and revs the engine, harley davidson jumping on the back of results. but it warns it takes a hit from the latest tariffs the details on trade ahead as "power lunch" resumes right now. tyler is right it's a feast i'm michelle caruso cabrera. sfoks taking a leg lower the nasdaq losing 1.1% had been higher. and now it's negative territory by 12 points the dow and s&p well off of highs. the dow is up 160 po points, two thirds of a point. s&p higher by a third and point. and materials and energy leading. real estate and utilities lagging. materials and energy higher by more than 1% some specific movers, alphabet moving high are on a blowout quarter. higher by more than 3% unitedtology higher by 2. 5%

ealey lilly announcing strong numbers that stock is higher by 4% steel stocks on the move the etf, slx on pace for the best day since late april. and look at this higher by more than 4% allegheny technology higher by 6.5%. >> i'm melissa lee a brand of goldfish cracker being recalled due to salmonella home prices rising 2 prt 2% in may. aprils number revised higher and prices now up 6.34% in the past year jp morgan krooe jamie diamond highest paid in the banking sector 28.3 million in kbaengs. ty. >> melissa, we begin with profits, profits, profits. 110 s&p 500 companies reported

so far and we are just two days into the busiest earnings week of the year which sectors are in the lead in dom is here with the earnings score card. >> tyler, like you said more than a 5th of the s&p reported thus far it has been generally positive so far you look at the blended earnings growth rate. according to thompson reuters i business if every companies reports as expected that's left out there we will see earnings growth of nearly 21% that's a big number. on the sale side of things it's not as bad there either. 8.5% sales gains if every company reports as expected it's a healthy earnings season. when it comes to driving profit growth certain sectors are doing well energy sector up about 144%. granted it's working off the low base last year yes, big profit gains over the same time last year. on the material side michelle caruso cabrera mentioned the best performing

sector earnings growth there 33%. materials is standout. 24% for the banks. the financials up 24% in earnings growth. as we start to see, michelle with, the other companies reporter remember this is the busiest week of earnings season by the time friday afternoon comes around half will have reported back to you. >> thanks for the run down dom. earnings driving the markets higher the dow higher by 142 points nasdaq into negative territory but higher before. investors seem to shrug trade tensions and the geopolitical risks. make advisers charmts leon leon cooperman he likes the stock right now. >> the market environment is you know reasonably favorable. not to say it's undiscounted but you have a good economic environment. and you have a compliant fed in my opinion you have interest rates that are really what's

driving the market it's just not competitive. >> joining us now to discuss is andrew sloemen morgan. is gentlemen, good to have you here david let me start with you what did you think of what leon cooperman said where do you see the outlook now. >> our view coming into the year was that the bull market continues on the strength of strong economy and accelerating corporate profits but be more muted because of the less friendly environment opinion hawkish fed and the trade war. that's how it's played out and any will continue to play out that way through the course of the years because none of the factors changed. we would expect the market higher at year end profit driven but not terrible higher because the macrooverhangs continue. >> head winds but still i assume

you want to stay along on the market. >> upward bias yes. >> andrew, what do you think, the story of the bull market is when we focus on earnings in the micro, the market does well. in geopolitics the market struggles more in a week and a half we get through earnings season it's great now. moving to augustable probably tough are for the market because it's done well recently. it's a little overbought but for now it's a good time because companies are reporting good numbers >> all right you both like financials so david, i'll ask you this because you both make the point that getting through earnings season will be an important catalyst for sectors the financials for intents and purposes are basically through the earnings season that was not the catalyst what was the catalyst was the inversion -- not the inversion, the steepening of the yield curve in the past couple days. david does that make you more confident we will see that catch up trade-in financials in the second half of the year or does that make you more i don't know, does that make you question your position on financials at this point in terms of the catalyst

that you need to happen in order to go higher. >> well i think the case for the financials is more about just the shape of the yield curve i do think that we'll see a little bit more steepening of the yield curve over the next six to nine months primarily because we think we are seeing some skrermgs in the inflation numbers. but when you look at the valuation story, when you look at the loan demand potential from what is still an accelerating economy, those pieces all fit together to we think positive prospect for the financials >> andrew what's my best investing tactic between now and year end >> well, i think you have to -- it's -- you know, look, the market -- i agree with david it's an anemic return opinion the market is up 6% for the year so that's pretty good. we're probably in a period where we could move sideways but it doesn't mean sectors that you should be just be bearish on anything i think financials that have lagged, they could continue -- they could do better

i think the trade for the year is don't chase too much momentum if things have worked too strongly back off. and then look at areas that have not done as well like as david said, financials i think that's the -- that's the kind of the playing card for the year >> got it guys thank you. andrew and david good to have you on. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> shares of harley davidson soaring this afternoon after earnings beat estimates but the company isn't exactly in hog heaven preponderate the cfo sounding the alrm saying they were expected increased costs due to tariffs harley will absorb costs and cull the full year guidance as operating margins for results. should the investors be worried? let's bring in tim conder. great to have you with us. >> mitts it's melissa. >> so is it tyler. >> didn't mean to leave you out. harley davidson shares do you think the pop is warranted given

the earning report. >> the expectations bar is low coming into the earnings you had a bead on the top line, a bead on the hdfs, as a result -- which is the finance subsidiary as a result the bottom line there. and so i think again it's a matter of very low bar here. it was exceede >> how about the decline in u.s. sales, tim have you seen any evidence that is -- plateauing at this point. >> no, i mean we are still looking for the year that to be done in the -- in the -- than the low to mid-single digits for the u.s. you haven't had a positive year from the u.s. orr globally with the retail sales since 2014. they face ongoing challenges some of the new models helped in europe and they are making a long-term push on the international front in asia in particular. >> some would be tempted to look at sales and see that's what happens going against the president or talk about producing outside the united

states do you think anything in the number nas suggestsrightry boozing from would have been buyers >> no, in fact europe was as expected from the sales perspective. and i think, no, the -- the short answer is no >> so you don't see any u.s. backlash against harley davidson based on the idea that they were moving production offshore. >> no. what we have heard from dealers, whether it's harley davidson or other power sports companies and see both zealers, consumers, investor and companies are expected cooler heads to prevail on the tariffs towards year end. that's the real catalyst we are watching for moving to the fall how it unfolds that's the expectation of the market right now that that will unfold and that some of these head winds will actually abate as we get into year end and looking into' 19.

>> if cooler heads do not prevail would you stick with the. >> we are adjusting the estimates all the time our target is 46 at this point we'll have to see from there we have not yet rolled forward to 2020 at this point it but that's a key component. >> tim, thank you. wells fargo. >> thank you. >> the president speaking in the last hour. and he had a message to america's farmers affected by tariffs. kayla tausche is live in washington with more hi, kayla. >> the president's message for the farm community came around the time the u.s. department of agriculture was rolling out a relief package for farmers affected by retaliatory tariffs. the package is $12 billion in size and unclear how long it lasts. but the u.s. department of agriculture says it has a couple different parts. the first is direct payments to farmers. and those will be farms that

deal with soybeans, corn, wheat, and milk and hogs. the second portion will be purchases of surplus crops that you can expect fruit nuts leg um and milk the disbursements will happen by labor day. and in the coming weeks any will work out the details of the plan, who qualifies and how long they last. any essentially said the goal of the program is to buy the administration time to work out trade deals. but the fact that the disbursements will be made around labor day means the administration don't think the trade disputes will be solved before then. and usda officials said the program while temporary in nature they couldn't say how long it lasts it would be less than a year in their estimation. the president just last hour as you mentioned did have his own message for farmers. and it was to be patient >> we're making tremendous progress they're all coming

they don't want to have the tariffs put on them. they're all coming to see us and the farmers will be the biggest beneficiary. watch. we're opening up markets you watch what's going to happen just be a little patient. >> so that was the president's message in the heartland in kansas city, missouri, for what it's worth guys, before the usda briefing call i spoke to the soybean farmer and asked what it means for him. he says $12 billion is not inconsequential but a band aid str. >> thanks for the details. coming up sell it or smell it? that's how one analyst summarized the oversupply troubles facing the meat industry you can't let it sit around like other stuff. live at a butcher shop for that. s plus biogen earning a ahead of the earning day tomorrow first though, apparently it's

exodus from pay tv court cudding outpacing projections which media companies impacted the most? that's next. ssed? an energy company helping cars emit less. making cars lighter, it's a good place to start, advanced oils for those hard-working parts. fuels that go further so drivers pump less. improving efficiency is what we do best. energy lives here. [ horn honking ] [ engine revving ] what's that, girl? [ engine revving ] flo needs help?! [ engine revving ] take me to her! ♪ coming, flo! why aren't we taking roads?! flo. [ horn honking ] -oh. you made it. do you have change for a dollar? -this was the emergency? [ engine revving ] yes, i was busy! -24-hour roadside assistance. from america's number-one motorcycle insurer. -you know, i think you're my best friend.

you don't have to say i'm your best friend. that's okay.

you don't have to say i'm your best friend. are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi.? a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. welcome back to "power lunch. media earnings kicking off and

analyst focus on key area that is could be of concern julia boorstin with the details. julia. >> well there are a couple of big questions. what's next for m&a and how bad is cord cutting. this morning verizon guidance and results beating expectations outgoing cfo local mcadams saying unlike at&t doubling down on content he doesn't want to make similar media acquisitions. >> it's our belief we are positioned perfectly of to have the partnerships we need to be successful we are not owning content so we're not competing with content providers. we are their best partner from a distribution perspective. >> as your cord cutting verizon lost more subscribers to the tv service than expected. 37,000 verizon does not have the skinny bundle and closed down the mobile video app golde go 90

the big question for at&t reporting the earnings after the bell this afternoon as well as the other media giants is how much they suffer from the cord cutting and how much new digital revenue compensates for the traditional tv declines back to you. >> julia thank you more about cord cutting. the new report says the trend may be happening faster than thought. the latest forecast from e marketer says the number of cord cutters rice to 33 million ryer than the 22% growth rate projected last july. joining with us a breakdown on the numbers is paul verona, principal analyst at the video e marketer good to have you here. >> thank you. >> 33% of -- am i hearing that right? 33% of people who are served by cable television are going to cut the cord this year >> well, a 33% increase in the rate of cord cutting >> i feel much better. >> 33% in the rate of increase

>> right. >> how many total cable homes are there? and how many will there be after the 33% rate of increase takes effect >> well i don't have the cable -- the total cable numbers in front of me but i think what's important to point out about this trend is that it's happening at a faster rate than we anticipated for some key reasons the first is cost. people basically feel that the roughly $100 average that they pay for cable or satellite bills is too much. >> yes. >> that probably doesn't come as a surprise to anyone there are alternatives that cost less we have seen people g to on demand platforms like netflix and amazon and hulu. but now people have access to packages delivered digitally like sling and youtube tv and others costing roughly half or maybe less than half of the cable bill but give you a lot of the same features in terms of live channels, basically a tv

like experience which happens to be delivered. >> understanding you correctly -- i think you got it nailed -- new entrants like sling, direct tv now, youtube, netflix, are taking some of the money away from the traditional multisystem operators like our parent comcast, like at&t, and the rest cable vision and so forth. but let me ask you this. cutting the cord means, doesn't it, cutting one kind of cord but you still have to have some way to get the broad band signal into the dwelling. won't knows providers simply ra raise the price for broad band. >> they may raise the price for broad band the services i mentioned have actually raised their prices even though they are up and coming services they have raised provides the past year for about $5 on average. >> um-hum.

>> i think you are right, the possibility does exist that these companies will charge more for broadband service. that is where they are making most of the money as companies like come cart and charters and others are seeing their traditional paid tv subscribers leave. they are still servicing them with broadband. >> yes. >> in many cases people need to upgrade the broadband to have a good experience with the high -- you know, high band width digital services like netflix and others. >> paul, thank you very much it's an ongoing story. we'll have you back soon. >> thank you >> thank you still ahead, bowing by far the best dow performer in the past year. company out with earning earnings tomorrow. so does the stock get a boost? take off or ready for landing you can never are have too many puns in cable. >> i think you can. >> trading nation is next. dream. dream. and big plans. so how do i make the efforts of 8 employees... feel like 50?

how can i share new plans virtually? how can i download an e-file? virtual tours? zip-file? really big files? in seconds, not minutes... just like that. like everything... the answer is simple. i'll do what i've always done... dream more, dream faster, and above all... now, i'll dream gig. now more businesses, in more places, can afford to dream gig. comcast, building america's largest gig-speed network. need a change of scenery? the kayak price forecast tool tells you whether to wait or book your flight now. so you can be confident you're getting the best price. giddyup! kayak. search one and done. tap one little bumper and up go your rates. what good is your insurance if you get punished for using it?

news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ wlet's do it. ? ♪ come on. this summer, add a new member to the family. at the mercedes-benz summer event. lease the glc300 for $429 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. yes or no?gin. do you want the same tools and seamless experience across web and tablet?

do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online. welcome back to power lunch. i'm sara eisen and this is trading nation today we look at bowing up nearly a% ahead of the earnings

report and despite turbulence recently. holding the title of the best performing over the last 12 months up almost 70%. mark newton of newton advisers stacey mark is there a buying opportunity still in bowing. >> sara potentially it gets up to the former highs from june only near 374. the broader the trend has been neutral for six months as part of the longer term upfriend where the stock got to the most overbought it's been we saw the stack being o stock back in 2016, 102 back in february now it's at 357 or so. more than tripled. rsi, what i use for a gauge for momentum got up to 93 on a monthly basis. i look back over the last six times this happened since the 80s. five of the six times bowing was down 50% in two to three years afterwards it's tough to get too enthralled

given the neutral sideways trend the last six months. it's part of a very, very overbought trend for most longer term investors it's fine unless you are under 311. that's the key line. if it's under that it's a more precipitous decline. and potentially it gets up more in the next few woke i don't see a great risk reward given the threat of tariffs and what's happening of late and how overbought the stock has been. >> stacey fundamentally there is strong demand a little bit offset by the trade and tariffs concerns what are you doing with bowing. >> when we look from an options perspective there is not significant risk priced in let's look at it from earnings perspective. the earnings implied move is roughly 4% compared over the last 8 quarters bowing has moved about 4%. the last 4 quarters it's a closer to 5.5% move. it's not the excess volatility

or risk priced in. that becomes a really interesting perspective for mark looking at this suggest that the downside may have more potential than any upside because i make an argument for any investor owning this stock participated in the rally from an options perspective buying that protection is not expensive relative to how it's been historically. >> got it stacey, mark nice to see you. for more trading nation head to the website or follow us on twitter. i will see you you for closing bell pl don't go anywhere. "power lunch" will be right back >> now the latest from trading nation and cnbc.com and the sponsor.

. welcome back to "power lunch" let's take a check of markets. the dow higher by 128 points or half a%. the nasdaq flipped into negative territory. weighed down by netflix which is by the way bumping along session

lows down about 1.8% down 11% since the reported earnings the s&p 500 up .2% the do you dew point and chevron leading. nike mcdonald's and microsoft are lagging. and you want to take a check on treasurys of course. the 2-year yield hitting the highest since 2008 the a seer highest since june. >> and here what's happening at this hour. the bullet that killed a trader's joe store manager in an kpj of gunfire was fired by a police officer according to the los angeles police chief michael moore who released this footage during a news conference today. >> this is a heart breaking reminder of the split second decisions officers must make every day. and it's also a sobering reminder of the destruction a lone individual with a handgun are o can create.

>> ivanka trump is closing the name sake fashion brand. sales soared during the 2016 election but it became a lightning road rod for critics of the policies. nordstrom and hudson bay stopped selling her products siting performance. and japan, officially marking the 2-year start to the tokyo 2020 olympics and paralympic games the countdown event including paper lant earns with paper message. the mascots making an appearance that's the update this hour. back to you guys on "power lunch." >> thank you very much oil market closing for the day. let's go to dom chu petition commodity devg. >> tyler we are watching right now prices about.75 ice brink crude up a third of a% trader look towards the possibility of higher demand and the potential geopolitical risks hurting supply on the one hand china saying

maybe it's looking to take steps to stimulate the economy what that does to be for the command. on the other hand increasing tension was iran putting a cloud over supply possibly both president trump and iranian leadership lobing threats. iran is the third biggest producer in the opec we get the next pinpoint the american petroleum institute report today, 4:30 p.m. eastern time and then the big weekly government oil report tomorrow morning, 10:30 a.m. eastern time currently a reuters survey is forecasting a draw down of 3.2 million barrels for the energy administration report so michelle, oil inventory a key focus today and tomorrow. >> we'll be watching those thank you very much. it's been a red hot year for venture funding and a record $23 billion of vc investments across more than 1,400 deals in the second quarter and ipos raised 35.2 billion

this year. hopefully those are companies exiting from the vc funding. who where are the hot spots. deafen perek he closed the larges firm fund number 10 more than $6 billion and backed three of the hottest ip a's all up double digits you sign docu sight and smart sheet. a lot of money into the funds. it's so much don't you wonder if maybe it's a peak, especially if interest rates start to rise and people aren't desperate to find a place for yield. >> look it's hard to predict short term variations in the market what we see though is kind of very strong sustained trend in growth and technology investment. >> really driven by the fact that it drives massive productivity increases that has existed ten years all the data we see in the portfolio companies when we talk

to cios that trend is unabated the next decade. could there be variations in the market could multiples rerate for periods of time as in the past entirely possible. we feel good about the long term secular strends. >> being somebody good at this wouldn't you be relieved to see some people get out of this business and you have less competition for the best company? >> sure. the reality is our business is one where you know funds are long-term in the nature. they have 10-year kmemts it takes a long time to go out of business np it's a lot easier to go out of business in a regular business than haven't venture capitol. well will examination going forward. >> three companies went pack public nobody wants to go public anymore it seems tell me about the discussions behind closed doors when you talk about exit strategies if you look at the number of publicly traded equities in the world they are down 50% from the

peak the public markets just don't seem as attractive as they used to be. >> there is a couple of things one you talked about the $35 billion of ipos but if you lock on the historical kin um back to 99 or 2000 while that's a short-term long term ipa roll is down even though this year was good. the answer to the more direct question is the markets have changed. first the private capital markets. you have a larger pool of private capital that's basically allowing companies to stay private sfiftly longer you see companies like uber airbnb in a different market would go public. us eyeing the private markets to invest ingrowth, provide liquidity to shareholders. that wasn't an option five or ten years aig. that's a different in the private markets. in the public markets there's been a radical shift in the types of investors that buy in these ipos if you look at the list of top

ten investors ten yoerps aig you would recognize them today less so. and there is a lot of fear on the part of kraess once they go to public there is short-term focus on obviously results and that -- that creates hesitation on the part of some ceos to go public. but you need a liquidity strategy for investors and employees. but it's also a currency value to potentially do m and a or a raise additional capital i think tipo market will be thee whether the same scale in ten years something we can debate. >> over the course of your career what have you learned distinguishes the really successful ipos like docu sign, a product i use and love versus the ones that don't seem to fly as well. what makes the good ones good and the less good, less good. >> i think one you hit the

important one. have a good product that people want but if you think about it it's -- we always encourage our companies to wait until that point in time wrp they have established a model even if they are losing money what they have established is for to us ainquire the customer though know the cost of ainquiring the customer they know what the revenue is they can extract and point to over a three to five-year period where they get the business and if they wanted to mod late growth the business could be profitable the challenge becomes when companies go public before they actually know what their business model is or have proven it out and i think if you look at the companies that have done it over a -- have performed well over a long period of time, the generally -- if they have losses they've been able to explain why they chose to invest in growth and why they could at any point in time make the business profitable if they wanted. i think it fundamentally goes to business model. >> great to have you on, deafen petition appreciate it inside venture partners.

>> still ahead, where is the beef it is everywhere courtesy of the trade war. and that's a problem. adidi roy is live at a butcher shop. >> this is a bad thing sehaen meats inventory on the ri tt could mean a cheap are holiday down the road. we explain with the live report.

welcome back to poufr lunch. the trade war leading to a stockpile of meat in america what impact is it having on the industry aditi live at the butcher shop. >> the guys at this shop say they haven't noticed a change in prices they pay for beach are beef or pork as a result of trade tariffs. but there is another factor as play that factor is the rise of frozen meat supplies it's on the rise combined with tariffs it could impact the prices you pay. the latest u the sda number came out showing total number of pounds of beef in freezer up 8%. frozen pork up slightly from last year. the numbers are historically

big. the reason the supply of meat and cold storage is building up because the higher provides and that's led to higher production. export markets added meat ers add plants ballooning supply they say will outpace demand now with tariffs in place some question whether frozen meat supplies will sky rocket one analyst tells me she does expect prices to fall by the end of the year, especially on the holiday hams because bone in hams are a big meat export to mexico on the other hand there might be some relief in sight for farmers guys as you know the trump administration just announced the $12 billion in aid for farmers aircrafted by tariffs back to you. >> aditi roy at the butcher shop. massachusetts senator elizabeth warren apluding the european union for the fine on google she said this during the interview with john harwood. john joins us live with more

applauding a foreign body finding an american company, john. >> tyler, elizabeth warren has made her name as advocate of tough business regulation. she is the person coming up with the idea of the consumer financial protection bureau under dodd-frank and anti-trust has no complaints with the eu fine on google >> european union fined google $5 billion. >> yup. >> you like that. >> look they made their case and they make a pretty strong case what's -- what bothers me. >> the president criticized it and said that shows that europe is going after american companies. >> no. what it shows is that europe is serious about and i trust laws, europe is serious about anti-competition laws. and the united states is lagging. we were once the leaders in the world on this. and no more.

>> so certainly if elizabeth warren manages to get herself elected president in 2020 -- and she is considered a likely democratic candidate, anti-trust is one of the things that would change another thing that would change is corporate taxes she says she wants to roll back the corporate tax cuts that president trump and the republican congress just enacted tyler. >> john we will see you tomorrow at capital kpj interviewing a couple of principles from capitol hill tell us about it. >> we are talking about jeb hensarling, the chairman of the financial services committee, leaving that job he is not running for re-election. m maxine waters, the ranking democrats. looking to take over if they win the house. and mick mulvaney, the budget director and his acting director of the consumer finance protection bureau that elizabeth warren led in the creation of. >> and no fan of the agency that he leads, right?

>> mick mulvaney is not a fan at all of the agency he leads as he says he would say he is a fan of minimal regulation not no regulation. >> he would get rid of it -- >> excuse me. >> he would get rid of it if he could. >> no, they oppose ds the creation in the first place. but what he says now is that i will execute the mandate but i will not push the envelope which he thinks that richard cordray was the obama appointed head of that bureau did. >> see you tomorrow john. >> you bet. >> thanks. >> now to the extreme weather across the country and across the world. japan recording the the highest temperatures ever and claiming lives. here in the u.s. relentless rain in the northeast and a heat wave out west claiming at least one casualty wnbc dave price has the latest >> two very different stories on opposite sides of the country. on the east coast it's all of the atlantic moisture continuing

to churn its way northward and bringing heavy rains to much of the atlantic sea board 32 million people right now threatened by the heavy rainfall flash flood watches and flood warnings in effect through many locals and the west kwoeft a completely different story high heat and dry conditions we have seen this building over the past 48 hours. it continues today 116 in phoenix the temperature of 97 in los angeles. as far north as boise close to 100 degrees. and 96 in salt lake city the high heat continues as well pl both the problems taking us through the mid-we can back to you. >> wnbc dave price. >> biogen's big moment, the alzheimer drug showing promise what it means for the stock and the industry ahead its show of strength...

or its sign of intelligence? in crossing harsh terrain... or breaking new ground? this is the time to get an exceptional offer on the mercedes of your midsummer dreams at the mercedes-benz summer event, going on now. receive up to a $1,250 summer event bonus on select suvs. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing. with tough food, your dentures may slip and fall. new fixodent ultra-max hold gives you the strongest hold ever to lock your dentures. so now you can eat tough food without worry. fixodent and forget it. tap one little bumper and up go your rates. what good is your insurance if you get punished for using it? news flash: nobody's perfect.

for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782 on home and auto insurance. call for a free quote today. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ ♪ south l.a. is very medically underserved. when the old hospital closed people in the community lived with untreated health problems for years. so, with the county's help we built a new hospital

from the ground up and having citi as an early investor worked as a signal to others to invest. with citi's help we built a wonderful maternity ward and we were able to purchase an mri machine. we've made it possible for the people who live here to lead healthier lives and that's invaluable. ♪ . shares of bio gen hire following its earning report

that happened last month and the stock was up 20% the next guest here with a $423 price target, the highest on the street i want to talk about the earnings in a little beat. there was a beat in raise, spin but consensus. in terms of the big data point we're going to expect tomorrow out of that alzheimer's conference, investors you say should be listing at something called adcoms which is the alzheimer's disease composite score. what are we looking at to tell if the data is fundamentally good and what are investors look for? >> what investors want to see -- we did an investor survey. what investors want to see here is a 20% over placebo. we already know this drug works. the company top lined the data

saying that the 10 milligram dose the drug is what they call statistically significant. that's a term used for success what we will get tomorrow is the actual number. how well does this drug work what investors want to see is about 20% over placebo, but that is also debated. some people say 15% is the magic number, and that's where i stand. >> what are the symptoms that appear to improve? >> so adcom is a mix of three standards. people want to see 20% improvement on that particular end point. so that's going to cross both memory and function. we don't have the detailed data for that yet it's possible if we get the break down of that adcomes together, it's still a little unclear but investors are hoping to see that. >> 15% is your baseline simply

because that would be a competing eli lily drug registered on adcoms >> the drug that we're talking about today, band 2401, this is drug that targets the actual plaques in the brain that are believed to cause alzheimer's. and the 15%, really if you get anything that works i would imagine doctors and patients both would want to use this just because there's nothing else on the market and right now the end point that's being used is adcom >> so boil it down for me. this would be a drug that if it works as people hope would prolong life and improve quality of life but not be something that would be curative or turn

amtimers into a chronic condition you could live with. >> right, this is not yet a cure what people are looking for here is just even some slow down in decline, slow down in cognitive decline. even that amidst all these failures we've had with alzheimer's trials across the board even a slow down in decline here would be viewed as a very meaningful improvement for doctors and patients alike >> we're just about out of time, but we saw that 20% jump back on july 20th in response to the last round of data would this round of it data let's say it hits 20%, would we see another sharp reaction in stock or would it be confirmation of that 20% jump? >> 20% is the clear bogey. if we get 20% improvement over placebo and the rest of the data set is consistent, that means we

see plaque reduction and a good growth response, meaning as you dose the drug higher, the drugs works even better, if we get all all of that it is possible tomorrow the stock tracks $400 >> $400 and your price is $423, which is about 15% higher than anodre tay thk you for your analysis. we appreciate it >> check please. that's next. with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.

get ready to pay more for

your vacation next year. prices for hotels and airfare could jump in 2019 airfares could rise as much as 2.9%, and in some countries like india, new zealand, norway and chile, the cost could spike by more than 7% hotels across the gleb are forecasted to rise more than 7% with increases of more than 5% in asia and europe the risk of a global trade war could be a headwind for the industry >> as long as the economies are good people will still go. i think it's time for check please >> believe it or not somebody is trying to sell the following t-shirt. here it is it says -- have we got that graphic? you can get it on amazon tariffs not only impose immense

economic costs but also fail to achieve their primary aims and foster political dysfunction along the way. >> that's a smartly crafted tight message. >> wait until you see the back >> oh, let's see the back. >> they actually have a graphic that's even harder to read that shows supply and demand, et cetera it's an economic chart on a -- >> is it made in china >> probably. they're suggesting you buy it soon before there are tariffs imposed and it becomes more expensive. >> you know my fascination with hamilton there's now word it may come to the big screen as a film of the live production. not a movie adaptation like mama mia which is just out this week with my wife's idol sher playing the grandmother, but i digress it would be a film of this as it

actually happened. very rare for that to take place. not many examples of it. of course some plays like the sound of music have been taken to television and done live. >> the metropolitan opera. >> takes live shots. thanks for watching power lunch. "the closing bell" starts right now. it's time for "the closing bell," everyone. dozens of companies reporting numbers today. we'll break down the key numbers and movers and get you ready with at&t reports after the close. nasdaq another record day for tech with all-time highs for alphabet, facebook and microsoft. how long can this tech rally last i'll have details. the white house rolling out $12 billion in emergency relief for farmers caught in the middle of trump's escalating trade war. i'll have the latest and i'm sara eisen