it's 5:00 a.m. here are your top five at 5:00 the bite is back in f.a.n.g. amazon crushes earnings and shares rise. starbucks perking up with record sales and profits a $10 billion oil deal as the brits go big into texas. and north korea turning over what are believed to be the remains of 55 service members killed in the korean war. and one economic number that will get everyone's attention today, especially the president. we'll tell you what that is on this friday, july 27th

"worldwide exchange" begins right now. all right. welcome in and good morning from wherever in the world you may be watching today it is all about two big numbers. you have amazon earnings and gdp. maybe three, but we're also waiting to see if facebook will rebound after yesterday's record breaking fall. facebook lost more than 1$100 billion in market value. it was the biggest single day decline of any company in global history. all right. before we get to that, let's make sure you are set up for the day. dow futures are up slightly, about 30 points right now. nasdaq also rebounding big divergence from yesterday. you also have to watch the bond market the ten-year yield kind of quietly almost back at 3%.

look at that 2.98 that gdp number, which we will tell you about in a minute could move that bond market and that yield back to 3. japan was higher by a half percent. mainland china stocks falling slightly, also slight gains across the board in europe with the major markets higher outside of stocks, here's a global look at commodities and currencies oil slightly lower gold down again to about 1218 per ounce. bitcoin up about a percent, 7962. amazon's second quarter earnings absolutely blowing past wall street forecasts. amazon profit topping $2 billion for the first time ever thanks to a couple of things, continued dominance in online retail and the continued growth of its cloud computing business called amazon web services.

amazon's overall revenue was shy of analyst estimates but was within the company's guidance. stock is up 4% for more on amazon's results and how they might affect everything else, let's bring in alison porter from the janice henderson global technology fund as an owner you have to be happy about amazon's results i guess we'll call this the anti-facebook. >> yeah. amazon's results, again, just showed the incredible benefits of their customer-centric strategy the company adding more in terms of revenue yesterday, adding almost 15 billion in the quarter. which is the equivalent of facebook this year amazon can add 55 billion in revenues, that's the equivalent of adding a facebook. that's what facebook will have in total revenues this year. >> as a fund manager, what do you do do you buy more?

do you buy stocks in the halo? do you buy more technology what's the action to the reaction >> we think technology is continuing to disrupt more and more sectors in the old economy. the f.a.n.g. stocks, it's just an acronym, but when you look at facebook, amazon and google, they have net cash of over 2$240 billion. they have huge skill benefits, skill benefits that bring benefits in unit economics, benefits in network effects, and we think that that can continue. that 2$240 billion in net cash i from apple, alphabet and facebook that gives them flexibility. you know, valuations have gone up but they have that cash flow behind them. amazon is a cash flow machine. so we think the f.a.n.g. stocks continue to do well,

particularly alphabet, apple and facebook as well >> i know from looking at your fund, you are not a believer in netflix, the valuation to you is a bit too hot to handle. >> the valuation -- netflix is a name we've owned historically, they're creating skill benefits because no one can match them in terms of content spend, but they're burning cash, unlike the others who are sitting on these huge cash piles. netflix is still burning cash. so the valuation there is just a bit too rich for us. we think there's better opportunities in some of these other names in tech. >> so you'll add more amazon to your portfolio today >> we like amazon. it has had a strong run. it's up over 45% year to date.

we think the benefits of that growth and the highest margin businesses, amazon cloud services and advertising can continue to drive it forward but we do see some better opportunities. we have been adding more into alphabet, which is actually lagging the other stocks year-to-date, which we think is coming out of a period of having some difficult compares on the youtube business, on margins we think there's some great optionality on waymo and autonomous driving >> did you buy any facebook on the weakness yesterday are you a believer that it was way oversold >> facebook's had a big decline in market cap yesterday, but you have to put it into context. the stock is still flat

year-to-date it came back yesterday to where it was in may. we think facebook are going through growing pains, but it's a tremendous franchise we think there's growing pains with the product and around some of the regulatory issues that they're managing through it's a tremendous franchise and this management team had results before, so we think they'll do it again it's a name we look to add to in the future but not quiteyet. >> all right thank you. >> thank you. speaking of facebook, let's check the stock right now. yesterday it was the biggest single day market cap wipeout. lost about 1$115 billion basically lost a mcdonald's of value, not a store, the entire company. right now a small bounce back. shares up 1.79%, up to 179.41.

microchips, tortilla chips and coffee are among the stories today. intel shares are lower despite the company reporting better than expected second quarter numbers. the biggest gains came from the data center business but sales fell shy of estimates. intel also did not say anything about naming a new ceo chipotle shares are rallying today. second quarter results beating forecasts with the first full period under new ceo brian niccol diners spent more. food costs came down avocado prices apparently are lower. starbucks second quarter earnings and revenue matching analysts forecasts customers, again, spent more per visit, but sales in china fell 2% amid fierce competition and

stricter rules on delivery the ceo, kevin johnson, will be on "squawk on the street" today at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. a big deal in the oil patch to tell you about. bp is buying most of bhp billiton's u.s. shale and oil gas assets for $10.5 billion this is bp's biggest deal in two decades. they wills are increase the quarterly dividend for the first time in four years shares of bp lower by a percent. bhp stock is up about 3% this puts bp big time into the permian and eagleford shale basin. bp is buying big into texas. brian gilvary will be on "squawk box" this morning at 6:30. is the third time the charm? u.s. regulators rejecting a second attempt by two high-profile bitcoin backers to launch the first ever cryptocurrency etf contessa brewer has more on the

winklevoss twins >> the sec has turned down a proposal to list shares on the first ever bitcoin exchange traded fund. the commission previously blocked the winklevoss brothers. bitcoin dipped below $7,975. the winklevoss' run the cryptocurrency exchange gemini trust. but the etf they proposed would not be sufficiently protected from manipulation and fraud. the agency did not completely shut the door to such products once the bitcoin market had matured. cameron winklevoss says he and his brother are committed to bringing a regulated bitcoin etf to market and building the

future of money. cryptocurrency traders have been hoping an etf product would make the currency more attractive to retail investors and wall street there are three other proposals pending before the s.e.c it's interesting, because we've seen these big regulatory boards say this is not for retail investors, there's a lot of risk involved here and it's not a currency >> i said currency, i should have said crypto commodity it's more of a commodity or tradable product >> the backers want it to be a currency >> they do, but currencies do not move like that some do in venezuela, i guess. i don't think our american audience understands how much of a majority of all this trading is outside the states. almost all of it is outside the united states borders. about 95%. >> wow >> they love bitcoin around the world. >> right >> not as much here. see you in a bit >> all right >> you coming back

>> you cannot keep me away >> we can only hope to contain you. on deck, it is earnings extravaganza and the big change that could be coming to a front lawn near you very soon.

overwhelming air fresheners can send you running... so try febreze one. with no aerosols and no heavy perfumes. so you can spray and stay. febreze one.

are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi.? a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. welcome back your big individual stock stories include electronic arts.

posting better-than-expected earnings, but the outlook disappointed shares of a $15 billion nasdaq company that you never heard of are soaring today. this is atlassian corporation. they announsold their chat platm business to slack, an online business chat company. they will share marketing and sales. investors in expedia are getting a nice bump. earnings and revenue topped estimates. the ceo on "squawk on the street" at 10:00 today's big number, everything else doesn't matter, it's gdp second quarter numbers are rolling out. estimates are all over the place but they're high let's bring in gina sanchez, a cnbc contributor i know it's early, you're not feeling 100% we appreciate you joining us at this bizarre hour. there is talk, there is hope,

there is speculation that today's gdp number could have maybe a 5 handle in other words, be 5% or higher. do you think that could happen >> no, we don't, brian our expectation is that gdp will come in at 4.5%, and that still will be the strongest growth we've seen in four years so, it's still a strong number, but those who are expecting a 5 handle are in another galaxy if you look at what has happened up until now, tax cuts have rolled through to earnings very strongly we see earnings levels at 20 plus percent, 25%. but these numbers are largely peaking. so it would be consistent with 4.5% growth, but larger than that would be a big expectation. >> okay. do you think it will be in the 4s is that a galaxy that you could live in? just yesterday online i was

joking with eamon javers, i said i'll take 4.1 in the office pool do you think it will be a 4 handle >>ya we're expecting 4.5. so, you know, 4.5% is pretty strong growth. that's our expectation now >> what would that mean for the market does that mean stocks soar does that mean the ten-year yield goes back above 3% or, because the markets are a discounting measure, is this already baked into the souffle >> not only is this already baked in, but if you look at what happened with facebook today, that's a canary in the coal mine. what the 4.5% is telling you is what happened before it's not telling you what's going to happen. and the markets are looking forward to earnings forecasts and earnings profit warnings that basically suggest that we have to slow from here and that slowing doesn't have to be negative.

it just is that it's on a comparable basis it will be challenging. we will start to slow. the markets are starting to discount growth. so the valuations we've seen over the last 12, 18 months are now unsustainable. facebook, i think, was a repricing. if you look forward that investors are going to be looking for more value oriented and certainly more robust and defensive names rather than growthier and facebook-type names. >> growthier i like that. gina sanchez, this may be the peak quarter gina, feel better. we'll talk to you soon it is a huge day for big oil. not only do we have that $10 billion deal where bp is buying into texas, but we have the two biggest oil companies in america rolling out quarterly numbers today, on the same day exxonmobil due at 8:00 a.m. eastern time eps expected to be 1.27,

revenue, 71.6 billion. can they meet the street on things other than eps? production was under 4 million barrels per day equivalent last quarter, that was below the consensus. production has fallen 8 of the last 10 quarters chevron due out at about 8:30 eastern time here's what you're looking for eps of $2.09, compared to 77 cents the same period a year ago. revenue at 45$45.6 billion. keys to watch on chevron, how much cash flow improved last year given those higher oil prices and also cost containment. chevron's ceo saying cost control pretty much is everything chevron's capital spending has been higher than exxonmobil's four of the past five years bay of some massive new projects in australia. barclays is optimistic, raising its target to 148 from 145

those stocks are oil-price sensitive. look at this chart or listen to me tell you this chart if you're on the radio etfs, the xle and oil pretty much track each other almost perfectly. yeah crude oil a little more sensitive, over five years crude oil down 35%, but trust me they track. higher oil generally means higher stock prices. we'll find out if that translates today. still ahead on "worldwide exchange," big data on the docket the one key number everyone on wall street is watching. what it is and why you care. later on, we'll hop on the ban-wagon. disney making a huge change to its theme parks that has yby buzzing this morning

man: are unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you everywhere? it's time to take back control with stelara®. for adults with moderately to severely active crohn's disease, stelara® works differently. studies showed relief and remission with dosing every 8 weeks. woman: stelara® may lower the ability of your immune system to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections and cancer. some serious infections require hospitalization. before treatment, get tested for tuberculosis. before or during treatment, always tell your doctor if you think you have an infection or have flu-like symptoms or sores, have had cancer, or develop any new skin growths, or if anyone in your house

needs or recently had a vaccine. alert your doctor of new or worsening problems, including headaches, seizures, confusion and vision problems. these may be signs of a rare, potentially fatal brain condition. some serious allergic reactions can occur. do not take stelara® if you are allergic to any of its ingredients. man: are you fed up with crohn's symptoms following you? talk to your doctor today, and learn how janssen can help you explore cost support options. remission can start with stelara®. welcome back it's 5:23. thanks for being with us kind of quietly the trade fight with china may have been toned down today bay the senaecause t voting to cut tariffs on hundreds of chinese goods. the senate passing a bill that would cut or eliminate tariffs on toasters, chemicals and 1600 other items made outside of america. ro nearly half of those items are

made in china. the bill has passed in the house and the senate they have to now send that legislation to president trump it will be interesting to see if he signs it. in other political news, president trump and his former personal attorney michael cohen are still dominating the headlines out of washington, d.c. tracie potts joins us from washington with the new developments >> reporter: now we have a source saying that michael cohen wants to tell the special prosecutor that the president knew about that trump tower meeting before it happened if that's the case, it means that the president may have known that russia was trying to help his campaign in advance and could begin to build the case for collusion. a knowledgeable source tells nbc news that michael cohen is ready to tell investigators that trump knew about the 2016 meeting with the russian lawyer before it happened because his son told him. >> it is a big deal, because it

does -- it has the potential to put him smack dab in the middle of a conspiracy with the russians. >> reporter: donald trump jr. and other campaign officials attended that meeting at trump tower. they were promised negative information on hillary clinton the president has said he learned about the meeting later. >> trump approved of this meeting. if this is true, it's collusion. they are including with a secret kremlin plot this is it this is the ball game. >> reporter: trump jr.'s attorney says it is not true the president's attorney says cohen is not credible. he's under investigation for paying off women claiming to have affairs with mr. trump. the man is a liar. a proven liar. there's no way you'll bring down the president of the united states on the testimony, uncorroborated, of a proven liar. >> reporter: it's the second time in two days that cohen has dropped potentially damaging information on his former client >> maybe because of this --

>> reporter: on wednesday cohen's attorney released a secret recording of a conversation with trump talking about paying a woman to silence an affair. today the president is supposed to have a meeting about election security with reports out there that slaush russia is already tt influence the upcoming election. >> tracie potts, thank you >> phillip mena has some news outside of the world of finance. >> reporter: the white house says a military plane believed to be carrying the remains of 55 servicemen killed during the korean war is on its way home. the plane made a rare trip from a base in south korea to a coastal city in the north to retrieve them. the handover marks the 65th anniversary of the combat there. the so-called carr fire

continues to rage outside of reading, california. it's responsible for one death cal fire reports the blaze exploded to over 28,000 acres destroying 15 structurstructures firefighters are battling a massive blaze threatening an american pressure. the ferguson blaze is burning near yosemite park and thousands have been evacuated. this video shows a woman's dramatic attempt to escape deputies who were doing a traffic stop her car finally flipped over and she was ejected. no deputies were ejected that woman was taken to the hospital brian, back to you have a good weekend. >> drive safe, everybody still to come, facebook dropping some big bucks on mark zuckerberg, but not in pay we'll tell you what they're spending on coming up.

and chipotle will pull out all the stops to rapper cardi b. in the most extravagant way they know how the chipotle cardi b. connection coming up.

what amazon just did that it has never done before. could the american economy grow at 5% that's the number that has everybody from traders to president trump watching closely. and real estate shakeup.

one company wants to completely disrupt the most important part of home selling and it starts on your lawn. we'll tell you what that is on this july 27th as "worldwide exchange" rolls on ♪ thanks for being with us on cnbc happy friday hope you're not working for the weekend. we'll get more on the top business headlines, but let's check the other big stories. contessa brewer has those. >> the thunderstorms are rolling in today i also double as the weather person >> thanks. >> let's check what's leading cnbc.com amazon shares higher after reporting better than expect ppd results. the company doubled its profit

amazon forecasting strong fall sales. the s.e.c. turned down a proposal by the winklevoss twins to list shares of what would be the first bitcoin exchange traded fund. regulators previously blocked the etf from coming to market last year but the decision was appealed by the cboe's exchange. bitcoin dipped 3% following the news facebook approved a $10 million a year expenditure to amplify mark zuckerberg's family security the allowance increases the security spend on zuckerberg from 7$7.3 million last year facebook disclosed it would pay zuckerberg the allowance which he can use to pay for security personnel, skequipment, service, drentz initi

residential security and more. >> what do you spend a year on security i spent 65 cents a year. >> you're very secure. stock futures are higher, both the dow and the nasdaq a bit of a recovery. yesterday was a dismal day for tech investors, facebook, in case you were under a rock, had the biggest single one-day drop in the history of the financial markets. it lost 1$115 billion in market value yesterday as well. facebook by the way up fractionally this morning, just under 2% if you're hoping for a rebound today in facebook, right now you're not getting it. it's up under 2% the nasdaq futures are higher. let's bring in a guy who was so excited to come on "worldwide exchange," i don't think he slept. jim ureo was tweeting late last

night and early this morning i think you slept at the cme in your vest. >> i hope it doesn't look that way. >> we all look that way, it's early. i'll ask you this. i was joking with eamon javers that i'll take 4.1% for second quarter gdp in the office pool what do you have what is that gdp number coming in at today? >> if you were to check me 24 hours ago, i would have said the same thing the fact that larry said the number could be big, trump called attention to it there's a buzz around this number that is exclusively reserved for unemployment numbers. this is a big deal the fact that both of them have laid it out to me makes me and the rest of the financial markets think more than that i think 4.1 would be viewed as a mild disappointment. >> you're calling me a mild disappointment generally i'm called a tremendous disappointment. >> you are not >> you think 4.1 would be low

for the gdp numbers today? >> clearly from a relative basis it's high, it's blockbuster, but there's a tremendous amount of buildup. the point is that the market expected 4.2 that was 24 hours ago. now whisper numbers are higher based on the rhetoric we heard i think the market expect ts 4.. >> so if we got 3.9, which, by the way, 3.9 would have been spectacular for the majority of the last 10, 15 years. if we get a mildly disappointing number, does the market selloff? >> i think it's still spectacular. it maybe sells off a couple ticks, but you start to get -- remember the overarching theme and what worries the markets more than anything else is interest rates going higher. a 4.4 number, 4.5 number presents problems and people will say the fed is behind the curve. the fed will start hiking rates at a faster pace a 3.9 number, though it's small

difference between the two, that rhetoric might not be quite as hot. people say the fed is on pace, nothing to worry about 3.9 is fine for markets. 4.4 is good. >> what if we get a 5 handle does that put the fed back into another extra rate hike this year >> it could. >> does the ten-year -- the ten-year is at 2.98. right back to where we were. do we end today with a 3% number on the ten-year? >> yes, i do i do if we get the 5% gdp number, that's a forgone conclusion. there's another element to the ten-year, earlier in the week japan pivoted from ultra low, from 0.4% ten-year yields to allowing it to go up to 0.11 that sounds like a tiny amount because it is, but that affected our yield curve, too we started to steepen out, which is good for the banks. that's been great for them

yes, we should see higher than 3% because things are getting better, which will signal like a whole risk on sort of trade which will weigh on the prices on the long end. i think if we get that 5%, we go over 3 >> i went out to dinner last night at 5:15, because that's what i do on this schedule, literally the restaurant was packed at 5:15 you're a restaurant owner. >> yes >> how good is the economy right now from where you sit everywhere you go, every plane, every hotel, every restaurant, the new jersey turnpike, it's full >> everything is packed. my restaurant is packed. you said you go at 5:15. there's a wait for tables at my restaurant at 5:15 it's something we have not seen for five years walking around downtown, there's more people, more cars i'm not convinced that the government has as great a way to

measure the activities they think they do because i think there's a lot of cash that gets tossed around in a lot of different businesses so i think the economy is doing better than i've seen it do since easily pre-financial crisis >> i have an idea for you for your restaurant brand, offer a burger on gdp fridays for the amount of money that the gdp comes in at. >> okay. if it's 4.5 -- >> $4.40 the gdp special. >> it's friday, so we're already packed i don't need to do too much. >> do it on monday >> maybe we'll do it on monday on unemployment fridays we have a special if you nail the number you get a free burger and beer, which nobody ever collected on >> i like that challenge jim, thank you awesome stuff. >> thank you 4.1, a mild disappointment let's get to your top trending

stories, contessa brewer has those. >> this is the last straw at disn disney >> see you later >> disney around the world disney announced yesterday that all of its theme parks except disney tokyo will be ditching plastic straws and stirrers by the middle of next year. the company says the move will eliminate 175 million straws and 13 million stirrers every year disney also pledged to eliminate styrofoam cups, reduce the use of plastic shopping bags by 80%. the real question for me is why not in tokyo they didn't explain that they said all parks except tokyo. >> i saw something recently, it was a long piece of pasta, like penne, that doubled as a straw >> then you can eat it afterwards >> that's gross. it wasn't cooked >> i know.

public transit riders in vancouver will get announcements from an unexpected source. seth rogen will lend his voice to his hometown's trains and buses. roggin's announcements will include safety tips and reminders to be considerate. hey, lady, you have a great purse, does it need it's own seat snechlt recorded t seat riders can expect to hear his voice in the coming weeks. he said he wanted to participate in canadian culture. >> how far would you go for a lifetime supply of chips and guac do you love it love it like cardi b.? cardi b.'s song talks about guac

and chips. so chipotle send her a lifetime worth of coupons for free chips and guac chipotle said we hear you, cardi b. >> i hate that story for a lot of reasons i can't stand it when people call it guac it's guacamole queso just means cheese. it's the spanish word for cheese guacamole. not guac thank you. the number ahead is 4 or 5 4 is what president trump says would make him happy when we get those massive gdp numbers out at 8:30 a.m. this morning all you need to know about what could be the biggest number of

the year and real estate's big makeover, the one company looking to disrupt the way you sell your house and end lawn clutter. diana olick has this story - dad's got all the answers. - anncr: prevagen is now the number-one-selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. - she outsmarts me every single time. - checkmate! you wanna play again? - anncr: prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

dinner date...meeting his parents dinner date. why did i want a crest 3d white smile? so i used crest. crest 3d white removes... ...95% of surface stains in just 3 days... ...for a whiter smile... that will win them over. crest. healthy, beautiful smiles for life. welcome back good morning let's check on shares of facebook facebook massive plunge yesterday. the stock falling about 20%, losing over 1$100 billion in market value

if you were looking for a rebound on facebook today, sorry, you're not getting it facebook is rebounding a bit it's up 1.5% $2.60. the stock is at 178.85 a lot of downgrades yesterday. we'll see if analysts are coming out to the facebook rescue today. compass real estate is shaking up one element of home selling. by disrupting what may be the biggest part of selling your home diana olick has more on this story. >> reporter: it is what most people see first when they're looking to move to a certain neighborhood or within their own neighborhood, it's the for sale sign compass real estate brokerage, a new kid on the block, is disrupting the sign. this fall you may see this round interactive sign and, yes, it spins, it lights up, it does that with motion sensors when you come within a 20-foot radius if you have the app on your phone, it will send you a not y

notification about the property and connect you with the agent the designer of this sign said he researched this for about a year and this final product is just what the agents said they wanted >> we wanted to consider creating the ecosystem that makes compass so powerful, which is the combination of data and software and hardware that can help really deliver something of value for our agents and clients. >> the technology in the sign can manage open houses, digital lock boxes and even connects with waze for directions it will cost agents about $500 after it rolls out spengler said there has already been huge demand new signs. thoughts >> it's cool listen, there's downed real estate signs in everybody's neighborhood, i'm sure some might view them as an eyesore. these look expensive all i can think of is a teen in

the truck throwing it in the back >> great minds i asked the same question. i said somebody will steal it. somebody will vandalize it teens will mess with it. he said they don't think so but there will be insurance on these in case they do get stolen i think they might have a problem on their hands with that one. >> it is amazing how real estate still has the seens. >> technology on home tours, technology in everything, but the signs. that rectangular piece of wood >> the song from the '80s -- ♪ signs, signs, everywhere signsign signs ♪ coming up, the big number that the president is crossing his fingers for. they might be doing victory laps around the white house today

and shooting for the stars the big event happening today around the world that we in america n't wosee. it's your rbi coming up. ak conf. kayak searches hundreds of travel and airline sites to find the best flight for me. so i'm more than confident. how's your family? kayak. search one and done.

might have a little amazon led bounce back for technology stocks today nasdaq futures are higher today. the dow and nasdaq went in different directions yesterday facebook dragging down tech. amazon had big numbers after hours. stock is up. nasdaq futures are up as well. gdp will be up andrew ross sorkin, are we doing a pool, like an office pool? i have 4.1 >> we tried to do an office pool yesterday on facebook. >> i remember. >> where we will end the day >> we were waiting on the close of facebook. i think we all agreed it would do marginally better

>> what is everybody's gdp guess? >> he's going to 4.1 where are you? >> 4.0 >> scott wapner who is here today, we're doing "price is right" rules >> wapner will do 6.2. >> wapner going big, 4.4 t because i'm mean and the game is -- i will go 3.9. >> you did not see the president's tweet. >> you don't want to go low. >> can't be -- no. if i wanted to be mean i with go at 4.5 >> you don't want to go below. somebody did that once as a blooper. >> i will stay at 4.2. >> i assume -- >> we know it's big.

>> the president said anything over had he would be happy >> i'm 4.1, you're 4.0 >> wapner is here, that's a good reason to watch "squawk box. we have big earnings to react to amazon, starbucks, exxonmobil. mohamm mohammed elarian will be in the house. a lot going on >> andrew, thank you very much >> thanks. as we noted, second quarter gdp is coming out. what does it matter? let's bring in john silvia how big is the quarter going to be >> i'm sure the president will be happy 4% plus. we have 4.7. >> wow >> yeah. the consumer and business investments are solid.

what we're focused on is the underlying trend, we call real find sales to the economy. should be 3% the reason you get the had4.7 is the huge beat in exports to beat the trade deadlines, and increase in inventory. trade will probably subtract a bit from gdp going forward i would focus on the real final sales number, should be 3% >> good point. we are in the third quarter now. if we get 4.7, is that the peak because of that channel stuffing or cargo stuffing? or is this a sustainable 4% growth for quarters to come? >> i think this is a one-off situation. i think trade will subtract from gdp for the rest of the year much more sustainable would be 3% for this year, the first half of next year. after that, you know the same

old story. productivity, labor force participation rate dictates the longer run trend is like 2.5% for the u.s. economy >> okay. what is the number inside the number the headline number is key there's a lot of stuff inside that number that folks look into what are the guts of the number? >> the guts of the number is what is happening with consumer spending if the tax package has an impact this year and the first half of next year, it's got to show up in the consumer and business investment number. that's final sales plus government spending. that's where it has to come in around 3%. >> so what are you looking for for the full year then will we get a 3% yield for the t ten-year by the end of the year? >> you probably will get 3% by

the end of the year. inflation continues to drift up and we expect the fed to raise interest rates again in september. you will get the 3% ten-year yield by the end of the year >> does that impact what the fed does >> absolutely. you know, you look for the boom today, you get september's rate increase, as that economy shows signs of slowing, the fed may or may not increase interest rates in december, and we need a resolution on the trade situation. that creates volatility and uncertainty for the fed. >> if we get this 4.7 number, does that make the fed have to be more aggressive do you think maybe we get a third or a fourth extra rate hike this year >> no. i think the fed, like most private economists, would see right through this and say 4.7%, 4% is not sustainable. it's a lot of trade. a lot of inventory

that will be corrected in the third an fourth quarter, when those numbers come out we're looking at a 3% pace of growth >> okay. john silvia, you guys have a 4.7 number i'm trying to think of my economic history it would be one of the biggest numbers in a decade. thank you very much. >> thank you. let's wrap it up with your rbi. look to the heavens, most of humanity today will see something extraordinary. the longest blood moon this century. we have a full lunar eclipse in most of the world, but you have mars opposite it so the light off of mars turns the moon a deep red color. thus blood moon. this two-hour event is one of the most astronomical lunar events ever and it will not happen again until 2023. it will be visible everywhere in the world today except north

america. nuy next lunar eclipse not until jaarof next year g gdp number coming up are you ready to take your wifi to the next level?

then you need xfinity xfi. a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome.

it is the most important number of the day. why everyone from wall street traders to president trump, they are buzzing about the gdp report. and amazon earnings popping after emore than doubling estimates. and bp making a $10 billion bet on shale it's friday, july 27, 2018, "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is

"squawk box." good morning welcome to "squawk box." i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and scott wapner joe is off today let's look at the u.s. equity futures. right now it looks like there are green arrows across the board. dow indicated up by 38 points. nasdaq up by 45. that's significant when you think about what happened yesterday. s&p 500 indicated up by 12.5 yesterday the nasdaq was down it was almost all because of facebook we'll talk more about that later. we did see the largest single day decline in a stock ever, a loss of 1$119 billion after the aftermath of those disappointing earnings numbers let's look at treasury yields. the ten-year yielding