tv Squawk Alley CNBC July 27, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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like never before. facebook record $121 billion in market cap loss yesterday leading investors to worry about doubling down on faang stocks. amazon with record high definition with mixed results, twitter falling on user growth, concerns of all of this, while we wait to hear from apple is faang no longer the safe bet. weighing in with technology, the biggest loser, gene munster. gene, is the party over for one of the world's most crowded trades, faang? >> as a collective group i think it's over. i think it is not over for certain stocks within that i think we're going to see in the next 6 to 12 months did i v -- did i ver generals of the
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faang. they don't have the addressable markets to sustain that group. it is a different league with apple, google, amazon. the collective trade will probably be very different i still think obviously facebook and netflix will be successful companies, performance in that group will come really from apple, driven by apple, to a less extent google and amazon. >> want to get back to faang in a moment, kevin. let's talk about twitter it is a feature this morning, down 18% >> companies talking about health, their health work. i love these terms that they come up with to make the platform a healthier place but that involves potentially actually maus going down, declining, and that's what the market seems not happy about what's your take >> twitter has shown the third straight quarter they can post profits. they're showing some advertising growth they're showing investors they are actually a business.
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their share price more than doubled in the last year it wasn't long ago that people were asking is twitter a business or does it need to be a nonprofit. i think in the long term health of the platform and the health is a good thing. i think there's sort of a silver lining to what disappointed investors. prove that it is a business and here to stay >> it is a group but a business built on bots and fake accounts. >> i think that's true the other thing about twitter is it is a nondiversified business. compare them to some of the other companies we are talking about like facebook which has what's app and instagram and other legs to pursue, that would be a bigger concern for me with twitter over time. >> gene, the criticism of twitter has always been maybe it is more of a niche business, will never be able to grow effectively its user basine in a significant way. does this point to that?
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>> i think it does whenever you have a social platform cleaning up users that's not a good sign i'm more of the camp i didn't think they were going to delete as many accounts than what people had expected. i'm in the general belief that this is more of a niche player i think there's not leadership coming from twitter, and i think it is still trying to find its blaze in broader media >> from wall street, conditioned to show user growth and steady increases in user growth when so many millions of followers and users were fake. >> yeah, it doesn't add up the end of the day, they're taking the right steps to clean things up and we'll probably get a better look of what the platform is about in six months. similar to the facebook story where the clean up phase, in facebook's case, roll out of privacy features will take some
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time, have a negative impact or best case scenario that stocks are range bound the next few months. >> one of the factors with twitter is they were undermonetized while their user growth is disappointing and they are cleaning out these bad accounts, what we're seeing within the media industry is that they are getting tracked with advertisers that reflected numbers and ways they haven't previously. even with relatively stable but better user base, i think that's an important thing to see in terms of earnings potential of the company over time. >> speaking of advertising, turn to amazon. you don't typically think of advertising being a key portion of revenue base or margins, but it is. and growing. 64%. advertising on the platform. do we have to consider them when we think of facebook and google, now another key player when it comes to digital ads
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>> i think we do and i think that media, when you think about the publishing industry and challenges they had with facebook and google, it is a similar pressure on them one of the most interesting stats is the number of alexa devices, echo devices in americans' homes estimate 23% of u.s. households have an echo device in the home which is a vehicle for commerce, and also a vehicle for advertising. if you listen to bezos' remarks in the last few quarters, you can see he is very preoccupied with alexa as being the thing that ties amazon to businesses together, which is also potentially an advertising vehicle as well. >> gene, it is kind of a funny quarter. we're talking less and less about the core retail business which did put up incredible numbers, may have been disappointing to some, but we're talking more about advertising or members or web services, and it is acceleration of revenue
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growth how do you view it >> i don't think the stock should be up today, i think it should be down a few percent the reason being at all-time highs with the growth story doesn't equate even with great profitability and surge in advertising business, doesn't make sense that the risk reward here is for the shares to be up. setting that aside, i think we are entering a slightly different phase of growth for amazon, slightly lower like traditional company, growing in the mid to high teens percent, but more profitable, so when a company goes from a revenue growth story to earnings story, usually there's a bit of a hiccup that's what's front and center, how i'm thinking about this. that said the stock could trade down over the next month, i think it probably will, but that said, is it still clearly a leader, they can disrupt so many different businesses, whether
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content, health care, still to come you have to bet for a longer term. >> wasn't this quarter an example of why when you have amazon buying pill pack, the entire pharma sector melts down, or buying whole foods and the grocery business loses a ton of market cap because they have the profitability cushion to do whatever they want in terms of disrupting new industries, spending whatever they want. and that was always the case now they have this incredible cloud and advertising business which super charges that ability. >> that's a good point $2.5 billion in profits this quarter. it is pretty easy to see they can deploy the cash and diversify the business roughly 50% of all online commerce today happens over amazon's platform. that's enormous power. it is reasonable for other
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industries to be concerned. >> can i interrupt a second? 2.5 billion, and say amazon does 10 or 8 or 12 billion, the part that's surprising to me, yes, amazon has gone from losing money to making money, that's good, have to give them credit for that if you look at apple, for example, they're going to probably return something in the order of 25 billion to investors in the june quarter alone and probably 50 billion per year we're talking orders of magnitude difference in terms of actual cash and similar market caps that disconnect seems odd to me. >> i understand that that's why i mean you raise an interesting point, gene, that it will be based on actual -- i find it hard to imagine when amazon is judged on earnings, though, don't you? even though you seem to think that may be coming >> i think it is a long ways
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away they have so many industries to disrupt, so many, content and health care and grocery probably, so we're a ways away from that. i think it is important when we talk about the names to keep in context some of the different, what's going on in terms of returning cash to investors. >> sounds like you're betting on apple over amazon for the trillion dollar race have to leave it there thank you for joining us good to see you. the other big story is second quarter gdp, jumped 4.1%. best quarterly pace in nearly four years president trump spoke earlier this morning on that number. >> i am not president trump speaking earlier on this number, david. >> it didn't say it, somehow i expected it, steve you can speak for the president and or as i know you want to fact check things he offers up
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in news conferences. >> david, this was maybe one of the more fact based pronouncements by the president. he was reading from notes. i want to applaud that at the same time, there were a few things that maybe raised some eyebrows, get at the issue of how sustainable this number is first the president said it was the highest annual growth rate in over 13 years it was three years i have to wonder, did the president misread his notes on that we have a call into the white house to find out if he meant 3 years or 13 years. how he calculated 13 years moving on, said the year before i came into office, private investment grew 1.8%. this year 9.4% how much is due to energy and high oil prices which i don't think the president would take credit for i have seen some work before this particular report that said if you take out the boom in energy investment that the overall investment is not much
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greater. that probably could change in months ahead finally, number three, trade deficit dropped by more than $50 billion, that added 1.2 percentage points of gdp that's also true, but the trade deficit gains may be driven by exports that were front running tariffs, especially on soybeans. the trade deficit is up over the president's term so far, and would be up more if not for the one time $50 billion number. he makes no mention of increase in federal and overall government spending under his tenure none of that should take away from the idea it was a strong quarter, david we may not have a sustainable growth rate of 4.1%, but perhaps have one around 3%, and that's also something to applaud, david. >> right and again, though, this idea of 13 years since we have seen a four quarter number, that's not right either, is it, steve >> no. like i said in the last segment, david, the president i believe is right to take a victory lap on this data he just maybe went around a few
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more times as warranted by the data >> thank you, steve. steve liesman back at headquarters when we return, we dig deeper into twitter results. just discussed them a bit. intel beat the street, but some numbers within the report had shares down sharply this morning. interim ceo bob swan joins us. more to come on "squawk alley. [music playing] (vo) progress is in the pursuit. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during summer of audi sales event.
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twitter down over 18% after reported decline in monthly active users or planned decline perhaps. the conference call was this morning. jul julia boorstin has a look at what's going on. >> david, weighing on twitter shares, the fact that the company lost a million active users between the first and second quarter the company reporting 3 million fewer monthly users than wall street expected, and twitter warned user declines will accelerate next quarter. they lost users due to health work, the move to delete fake accounts and bots, saying that lower than expected profit guidance for third quarter is worth it for the long term value of cleaning up twitter >> we do believe that our health work and focus on improving the health of the public conversation on twitter is a growth factor over the long
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term we want to make sure we're building this into our dna we want to make sure we are able to measure it, held accountable to it at well. >> door s-- door see says they want current user more engaged >> the biggest impact we had in getting people into heavier states of usage has been around relevance. anytime you add learning models to the time line, it is more relevant to people people can show up to the app and immediately see something that's valuable to them. >> he talked about twitter success with the world cup, saying it generated $30 million in revenue, 39% of twitter users
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engaged with two or more games he said they learned from what worked with the world cup. back to you. >> rough week. twitter shares down 20% for the week when we come back, bob swan joins us to talk earnings and search for the next ceo. intel, biggest drag. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him.
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intel shares were down this morning. data center revenue giving investors some concern perhaps joining us first on cnbc from intel headquarters, chief financial officer and interim ceo bob swan nice to have you this morning, bob. you're quoted in "the wall street journal" story covering your quarter as having said about it there's not much not to like but the market seems to not like it so what are they missing
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>> for us we had an outstanding quarter. revenue up 15% operating margins expanding by 500 basis points earnings per share up 44%. to the first six months of the year, we generated $6 billion in cash and returned over $8 billion in cash to shareholders. more importantly as we looked at the rest of the year, we raised the full year outlook. we feel like we're building great momentum to the first six months and really excited about execution on the second half as we go into 2019. so we feel great about the quarter. >> you know, stock down 8% is not insignificant. do you think it is the continuing delays in rollout of the chip or the fact your guidance implied gross margins won't expand even though revenues are
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what's causing the decrease in market capitalization? >> well look, i think investors are a little anxious about our outlook, what was implied for fourth quarter gross margins and there's a couple of dynamics we tried to explain that are contributing to that they all have to deal with progress there's three really important things for our company as we exit the fourth quarter and enter 2019 that is continuing to grow our modem business we're launching a wonderful product in the second half of the year the practical reality of our success in modem growth will have an impact on gross margins, but will be a creed to earnings improvement. we have a fast growing memory business with great products that are getting real scale as we enter the second half of the year success in growth and memory will be akreetive to earnings
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but will impact gross margins. we are making progress on the ten year yields. scale it as we exit 2018 we are making progress scaling that process note, will in fact have negative impact on gross margins, but good sign we're making progress as we enter 2019 so there's concerns about gross margins in the fourth quarter and we understand that practical reality is that three things that are driving it are things that are healthy for our business and trajectory going into next year >> some investors are wondering if a and d is taking market share and whether that's being reflected in softer margins. >> you know, the way we look at it is we have the best products in the world
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our data center business grew by 27% in the second quarter. the operating profit for the data center business grew by 65%. and we continue to make significant investments in the data center group as we see an expanded market size that plays well to our strength we're used to competition along the way. we're very confident about our ability to expand our leadership position in the brought data center next year and beyond. we feel good about our set of leadership products. >> the data center business, 27% is nothing to sneeze at. but it came in below consensus feels like this has been a swing factor in a lot of reports lately what is a realistic sustainable growth rate for this business? >> you know, it's interesting, sarah, relatively short time ago the question was whether we could get data center to double
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digit growth here we are three quarters in a row with growth rates above 20%. as i indicated this last quarter, up 27%, with continued momentum going into the second half of the year so the way we look at our overall served market, it continues to grow. the number of devices at the edge that require compute capacity that feeds demand to the cloud just continues to grow we think we're extremely well positioned, whether with cpu, microprocessors, with our fpga products or with our memory products, we feel the role we will play in this growing industry will get bigger and bigger and think we're extremely well positioned to capitalize on it. >> when you think about the growth of the cloud, bob, give me some ideas. we've gone through an earnings season where we saw
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$21.5 billion cap ex number from google aws revenue growing 49% year over year. are we early here or getting a later stage even though the growth seems to be going one way? >> yeah, you know, it has been evolving, david. what we've seen in our cloud business most recently is 40% growth but at the same time over the course of the last 270 days we have seen growth in the enterprise sector as well. so what we are seeing is whether it is an enterprise or consumer, the need for data to be analyzed, compute, stored, retrieved faster and faster times, the demand at the end user is growing exponentially. that's creating demand for compute capacity both in the cloud and recently in the enterprise so we think this is a trend
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that's going to be with us for awhile, and it is the tide of demand is rising all boats we're well positioned in that vector >> with 5g coming, only more and more data. which gets me to mobile. you've become a supplier to apple. give me some sense as to your expectations, how that relationship could conceivably grow >> yeah. you know, we have a modem product we have been invested in the last several years that business grew by 35% in q2. more importantly, our next gen product that ramps production and volume growth in the second half of the year so we've got a very god 4g product now that we're launching, and we're excited about to your earlier point the
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evolution of 5g and the role that the modem will play in the next gen technology. so our customers, our relationships with customers are extremely important. they're looking to us to build the best products on the planet. we believe our modem is progressing that direction and we're excited about the prospects for the modem business going forward. >> and finally, bob, on leadership at the company, you're the interim ceo i believe you said you're not interested in the top job. why not. you're very well respected by wall street. there are any number of investors think perhaps you would be the right guy to hold this job in a more permanent fashion. why don't you want it? >> because i absolutely love my day job. i love being the cfo this is a phenomenal company we have rich talent inside and outside the company, and i'm very confident that the board is
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going to get a great ceo and i'm excited to help transition the next leadership of the company and most importantly i love my day job, david >> just wanted to ask you, bob, about trade. sometimes when we get the headlines around tariff announcements and lists of products for chinese goods that are going to be taxed, the chip tech sector, your sector, gets hit hardest. have you reviewed the potential tariffs with china and if so, do you expect to feel the impact on the business >> yeah, that's a great question first to china's very important market for our company, we have great partnerships there, have been operating there for 30 years. we have big and growing customers so it is a very important market for us. as we've assessed the first two waves of tariffs we see relatively little impact on the
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semi industry overall, and virtually no impact on our company. the third way wave of tariffs that have been proposed, we're evaluating those now i would say at this stage we do not see any dramatic impact on our business of the third wave that's under discussion. all of that being said as i started with, china relationship is very important for us we're very committed to that market and regardless of how things play out, our commitment to china and our customers to china will not waiver. >> all right we will leave it there, bob. we appreciate you taking some time for us this morning thank you. with the stock up, session lows down little more than 7%. don chu with the european close. >> they had the best week in more than four months after a string of better than expected
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earnings reports, stocks building on that thursday climb that sent the german dax to a five year high broader moves higher, despite weaker economic data out of france where gdp numbers came in below market forecasts france's economy grew 0.2% second quarter, hampered by worker strikes and slow down in consumer spending metrics. also in corporate news, carrefour had firsthand profits that beat analyst expectations the company assuring investors on progress of the on-going reorganization saying it plans to reach its specific growth targets for 2020 and 2022. car shares jumping more than 13%. posting a best day trading back to 1987 one notable lackard, kering posted first half sales that
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missed expectations, hurt by weaker sales shares rallied more than 30% since start of the year after a record high in june, now up by about 18%. david, you can see they're off almost 8%. >> so surprising gucci is killing it now. don chu, thank you. all right, let's get to sue herrera. she has a news update. >> i have that, not a lot of gucci. i have the news update here is what's happening at this hour the white house says that north korea has returned remains of what are believed to be u.s. serviceman killed in the korean war. the handover follows through on a promise that kim jong-un made to president trump when the two leaders met last month. russian president vladimir putin says he invited president
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trump to moscow. putin suggests both leaders are ready for more summits, but notes conditions need to be right. mr. trump has also invited putin to washington. disney announcing all theme parks except disney tokyo will be ditching plastic straws and stirrers by next year. they are pledging to reduce sire foam cups, reduce shopping bags, cut in room plastics six former major league players inducted into the hall of fame this weekend festivities begin today in cooperstown, new york, including the parade of legends tomorrow and induction on sunday. you're up to date. that's the news update this hour back downtown to "squawk alley." david, back to you >> thank you, sue. the economic envy of the world. the president touting his pro-growth policies with release of second quarter gdp numbers. we'll be joined by roger altman
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dropped by more than $50 billion. 52 billion to be exact dropped by more than 50. think of that. the trade deficit has dropped by more than $50 billion. and that's added and adding 1.2 gdp. that's a tremendous drop haven't had a drop like that in a long time. >> well, our next guest has something to say about trade roger altman joins us. nice to see you, roger. >> same here, sarah. >> leading up trade a second, the overall economic picture was pretty strong, wouldn't you agree, fueled by a 4% rise in consumer spending? >> yes, it was strong and because we all root for america, it is great to see that. the economy is doing really
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well and let's hope that continues. obviously it is far above its long run growth potential that mos most economists estimated at 2%. you see export strength, effects of the tax cut, and strength investment and those are all good things. of course that's showing up in labor markets which are relatively tight, not super tight but relatively tight, and it is showing up in average hourly earnings which are growing moderately but not badly. >> clearly the president has reason to celebrate and his policies are driving momentum on deregulation and tax cuts. what about trade is that helping this economy, and as the president said, as soon as we see trade deals get done, he says we'll see the economy go even higher >> well, this is a difficult topic.
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i happen to think if we should have an all out trade war, all of the threatened tariffs which the president has discussed, including on every last dollar of china exports to the u.s., on vehicles and vehicle parts, no matter where they come from and so forth if all of those are actually imposed and the full retaliatory ones are imposed also in response, i don't think that's a good thing, and i don't think financial markets will react well to it at all. now at the moment markets think either that these full tariffs will not be imposed or if they are, that they'll be short-lived. if you look at metals futures, like aluminum, for instance, or platinum, you see that futures prices out say a year are lower
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than spot prices what does that tell you? it tells you that the current increase in metals prices which is driven to some extent by tariff fears are not expected to result in long term tariff application. so right now, the markets don't think we're going to have a full war or if it happens, it will be short. if that proves wrong, i think the markets will react badly and in turn i don't think the president will stick with it very long. but that all remains to be seen in terms of what, for example, the china retaliation and overall china position, because the president put china in a tough spot >> roger, it is david. you spend a lot of your day, your day job advising corporations on decisions they'll make, sometimes involving whether to buy another company. are you seeing any hesitancy on the part of boards to make decisions based on concerns about the changing landscape of
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trade? >> maybe there are one or two examples i am not involved in, david, which would be very specific to a particular sector, for instance, steal, but the answer otherwise is no i'm not seeing any hesitation, and as you well know because you follow this as well as anybody, the data on just global m and a volume, number of deals and so forth continues to be quite strong so the answer is no. >> so we would expect i guess to continue to see a fairly decent pipeline in your estimation in terms of transactions and the like >> yes but remember that this very healthy level of m and a volume reflects three or four underlying fundamentals, and it is necessary that they continue for that volume to itself continue, and they are robust credit availability, relatively
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low interest rates, relatively good levels of business confidence, and continued handsome equity valuations if we have an all outdoor trade war, and the market is skeptical that will happen, that could undermine equity valuation piece of that, that could effect m and a volume right ow, those four fundamentals are in good shape and m and a volume is strong. >> what about corporate spending in general, roger, investing in businesses how many quarters of corporate tax cuts can you juice out of that >> well, we would all like to see investment continue at the kind of rates we're seeing now or even better rates because investment drives productivity, and productivity drives incomes, and high percentage of americans are still not living as well in terms of either real median
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household income or other such measures as they were 10 or 20 years ago. so we need higher investment as i said earlier, sarah, the long run economic potential of the united states in terms of growth which reflects considerations like population growth, estimates and productivity estimates is about 2%, at least most models have that figure, so it is going to be hard to keep investment up at these levels, but if we could and confidence has a lot to do with that, and equity market valuations, if we could it would be really good for this country. >> we're seeing elevated confidence levels. thanks for being here. as we head to break, take a look at fox and disney shareholders meeting this morning, approving tie up of those companies as expected.
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♪ ♪ our new, hot, fresh breakfast will get you the readiest. (buzzer sound) holiday inn express. be the readiest. welcome back time to get to the cme group and rick santelli. >> we have an interesting one today. i tried to describe in statistical parlance the numbers for gdp have become a bit more orderly and a bit less sta cast
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particular you would rather have smooth than choppy even if there's improvement. i found a way to drive that point home i took four quarters of rolling gdp. the lowest gdp that we had, post crisis was last quarter of '10 what happened is i took q4 of '09, took the previous four quarters, figured out the gdp average. i did that all along each of these represents four quarters of rolling gdp. and the way it moves through time is this way this being the most recent here is what's interesting you can see how the numbers move we had a couple of 3%s this is q 1 and 2 and 3 of '10 and so on. what i did is highlight numbers better than today's. if you took the first, second quarter, first quarter and last two quarters of last year, you had 3.1. what's fascinating is donald
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trump was elected and this is q4 of 2016. what you'll notice is look at how every number slowly moves higher and steady. that is really good. it doesn't mean that this is the best four quarter rolling gdp because we've had several that were better. q3 of '14, q 1 of '15. that was by far the best at 3.75 but look at how choppy the numbers go i think that this represents something that is tangible, kwand fiebl, and good reason for investors to think that the policies are working you don't want them to work too fast and be choppy this is the conditions that you would require if you were investor looking to put more money at work. back to you. >> good perspective. thank you, rick. e sports on the rise we talk to the american gaming
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are you ready to take your then you need xfinity xfi.? a more powerful way to stay connected. it gives you super fast speeds for all your devices, provides the most wifi coverage for your home, and lets you control your network with the xfi app. it's the ultimate wifi experience. xfinity xfi, simple, easy, awesome. take a look at the fang stocks not too hot today. except for amazon, which is up almost 2% on blowout profit number the rest of the group is down. facebook losing otanher 2% "squawk alley" will be right
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the weakest performer. big double digit decline for names like twitter shares are down 19%. overall though, stocks are higher for the week. the dow and the s&p head ed for their fourth of the week in a row and the nasdaq would be three weeks high nr in the last four despite huge misses on earnings and negative reaction. amazon is higher now, but google, netflix, facebook, all trading lower within the s&p 500. groups like telecom and financials are really shining. banks are an interesting sector. they've come back to life, up more than 2% david. >> didn't want to draw our viewer's attentions to shares of cvs, down b about 4% hollywood reporters tweeted something, a link as well, in
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which they are citing expected stories soon to come from ronan f farrow of the new yorker has done a a lot of the work on involving allegations of sexual misconduct at various companies. what i can tell you is this. is my expectation that a piece from mr. farrow is coming. hadn't been release yet and in it, i'm aware that cbs is aware as well that something is coming that will have and include accusations that go back a long period of time in terms of the behavior of ceo leslie moonbez let's leave it at that for now
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and see what it actually says and what the impact will be. one could imagine depending on what is in the article from mr. farrow, as to what the response will be given the incredible antipathy between cbs and national amusements. sherry redstone, who is on the board as well, and what this could mean, but i think we should wait to see what the article says did want to note this story b b about the coming story >> new yorker set to be publish that article today certainly having an impact on the stock, which is why we mention it >> i was talking about the weakness in technology got to be the theme here for the week and we're seeing that for the day. in fact, if you look at weekly performance, stocks had a good week and the only sector that's
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down is technology, but you had strong performance from groups like energy and industrials and financials you had a truce with the eu over trade. and that certainly gave the markets a lift and overall better earnings. but some very high profile misses >> of course facebook being the key one to that 120 billion loss yesterday. facebook is now down slightly. amazon is the only strong performer so far of course today has been feature bid significant decline in shares of twitter after they talked about a potential decline in maus there. monthly average users as well, so kind of a mixeded picture certainly when you think about fang given the misses. but amazon strong. apple still to come and google had a strong point >> so a lot of people joking fang should be reduced to a grgr ga for the time being.
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>> and we'll be monitoring cvs situation and we'll update people on any impact it may have, may have, in term of response from the board and management at cbs. >> in the meantime, see you guys on closing bell. continuing to follow this market action the reaction to gdp. media stocks on the move, but i'll hand it over to scott for the half f time report now welcome to the halftime report i'm scott wapner top trade, stocks in the economy with the best quarter of growth in four years means to your money. jim, jon, our senior report e, steve liesman with us as well today. we begin with markets. stocks are reacting to the gdp numbers on pace for the fourth straight week of gains josh, kind of a muted reaction to what is undoubtedly a really
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