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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  August 3, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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it's 5:00 a.m. on cnbc what's next for the world's biggest company. where apple goes from here after becoming $1 trillion in value a big test for les moonves, the cbs ceo avoiding any questions about sexual misconduct. china's stock market just lost a global ranking, and it's thanks to a trade fight with us. shake shack is getting whacked this morning. and we are hours away from the jobs number. what you need to watch
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it's friday, august 3, 201, "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning. welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan so glad you're joining us. you can see not a lot of help in the futures right now. dow indicated down nasdaq indicated up. i think in a technical term it means it's anybody's guess which way the market goes today. we have to watch apple you know the news, apple becoming the first company in u.s. modern history to hit $1 trillion in valuation. apple slightly lower this morning. 207.04 per share, that gives it the trillion dollar evaluation we had petro china hit a trillion dollar valuation a few years ago.
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it lasted about a cup of coffee and then went over a clip. apple shares are down slightly today. still been a heck of a run with some big numbers for apple more on that throughout the day. let's look at overseas once again the chinese stock market is probably your biggest global stock market story. the shanghai composite another 1% it fell 2% yesterday shanghai, which is the domestic chinese market, they have the shenzhen, the hang seng. the shanghai is down 20% in just six months that big drop causing china to lose its position as the world's second biggest stock market. financial times siz the c s saye market is just below $1 trillion the value of the u.s. stock
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market, about 31 billion a check of the european markets as well. a lot of numbers here, they're green. outside of stocks, here's the global currencies and commodities. the price of oil down a bit. 0.4% nothing moving except for bitcoin. what happened to bitcoin 8,000 seems like last week it was last week now at 7,361 let's bring in bill stone from stone investment partners. he likes to get up early and tweet early. anyone who tweets the simpsons at 4:30 a.m. eastern is a friend of ours. thank you for joining us i want to start with apple i know you're not here for single stock stuff, but does apple matter it's a dow component, but as a wealth manager, a fund manager, does apple matter to you from a macro market perspective >> i think certainly from the
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size of it, we talked about that earlier because of its market cap, it matters. it's a bellwether for technology at least for me personally, since i'm a big berkshire hathaway guy, and buffett bought in a lot of apple stock, it matters for my own personal wealth i do think one way or another it shows up in a lot of places. >> is it kind of one of these names that gets the general public's attention the trillion dollar headline, does it matter maybe not, but mom and pop will see that will it bring the people, their attention if not their money back to the equity markets >> i think some. if nothing else maybe the bigger thing about apple is because it's becoming or maybe already has become more of a consumer company, that's what i'm going to steal the buffett idea, rather than just necessarily a technology company they try to get you in one thing when you look at
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earnings, the services component of it just keep growing. that kind of thing because people are involved with apple daily, i think that's a big thing. >> okay. let's get back to the macro market we're further than halfway through the year federal reserve likely to raise rates. you have apple you have this trade fight. the chinese collapse what is the most important thing for you and your clients to watch over the next number of months >> i think the big thing is -- i will say together, so one is the economy. you know, the economy completely falls apart, that meanings earnings do. in the end i'll say earnings but you have to sometimes look through some other prisms to try to get to those earnings and in that sense i think it can make you feel better yes, the global economy is losing momentum. you know, some of these pmi numbers, we have some weaker
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ones out of china. some of that related to the trade spat but that being said, nothing is really flashing yet close to any sort of recessionary levels. then you look at second quarter earnings, they've been phenomenal i know that's backwards looking. but at least it tells you that certainly companies have been making good money. if we continue along this path it will continue to look good on the earnings front despite the fact that volatility will come in on the trade side of things, so far so good. i think things still look good out there. >> what is the most attractive part of the stock market to you? sectors, stocks. what still looks good to you after this big run >> i guess in the long run i still like the technology area i think we talked about apple earlier. i know, you know, we talked about it, but i think that's a place that still looks good. in terms of maybe shorter-run
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kinds of things, looking for the bounce back, you know after a bad year last year, the energy space is interesting >> bill stone, we appreciate you joining us have a spectacular weekend see you soon >> thank you >> let's get to your top corporate story. shares of cbs are slightly lower despite reporting an earnings beat nobody was focused on that last night. les moonves managed to avoid questions about the sexual misconduct claims on his company's earnings call. let's bring in sarah fisher. welcome. by being on the call, by leading the call, by not taking any questions on the call about these bold-face claims, is that a strong signal to wall street that les moonves is not going anywhere any time soon >> that's exactly right. they sent a strong signal.
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les moonves sounded so comfortable on that call that was probably the most shocking thing he sounded like there was nothing wrong. i was also surprised that no investors probed him about it. they were allowed to ask questions, but not a single one did. >> long-winded introduke shuns as we -- introductions as well. there are all these legalese in the beginning, this was the extended version of that, was it not? this was almost trying to use time to avoid getting to the questions. that's what it appeared like >> totally they filibustered the thing. i listened to the first two intros, they ran up the clock for a half hour. i only counted about five or six analyst questions. and they can pick which analysts can ask the questions, which may have been why they were such softball questions not only did people not bring it up, but they were getting some flowery compliments. great earnings great quarter. it was the biggest elephant in
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the room that didn't get addressed. >> yeah. it's unfortunate sometimes the analysts know if they're the ones to bring it up, maybe the company will not give them the access down the road. that's the only reason i can think the analysts dodged it, or the lawyers said this is an ongoing investigation, don't bring it up. that aside, what do you believe from your reporting is going to ultimately happen to les moonves? >> i think skrub cbs will condu their own investigation. if they find evidence that les moonves put some of his employees in a position that was not the best for their own well-being, then he will go. however, it appears as though the board and management team is on les moonves' side right now so if there's something that comes up from that report that's
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inconclusive, don't expect this company to push him out. >> you think he's there in six months >> time will tell. i will say hollywood reporter is now reporting that ronan farrow has a second expo say comecoxpot next we'rek >> sarah, thank you. >> a big news story about a brewer contessa has more. >> let's get to beer heineken selling its china operations to cr beer, the biggest brewer in the country. they will also take a 40% stake in the company in a deal worth
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3.1 billion. cr has 90 brewers across china its biggest brand, snow, is the world's top-selling beer until 2016 snow was produced by china resources and sabmiller. mine k heineken will license its name to cr beer and the deal comes as heineken has struggled to get chinese consumers to buy lore-- priced brands. there have been changing tastes to alternatives like wine. but the premium beer category is growing by double digits shares of heineken are up 1% today. >> burgers and a beer. you live in manhattan. >> i do. >> do you eat at shake shack on >> once a quarter.
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>> shake shack having some problems stay tuned your big individual stock stories include toyota the auto maker says profits r e rose 19 p% last quarter but the are cutting sales forecasts citing an uncertain situation. aig took a big restructuring charge and saw lower investment income, had a weak showing in its property and casualty unit those shares are down about 5% shake shack's stock tumbling shake shack reporting a second quarter beat, but sharesdown after the company said it is delaying more restaurant openings shake shack stock is down about 4 h 4.7% in the premarket. we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange." on deck, do you remember this? >> he has no idea --
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>> cramer. >> i talked to the heads of almost every single one of these firms in the last 72 hours he has no idea what it's like out there. none bill poole has no idea my people have been in this game 25 years they're losing their jobs, and these firm also go out of business and he's nuts. they're nuts they know nothing! >> cramer -- >> it's been 11 years since jim cramer famously sounded off on the federal reserve. we are firing up the time machine to look back at cramer's call to see how far we have come a little something for all you movie lovers out there two iconic pieces of hollywood history just hit the auction block. tell you what they are and how much they'll cost when the wod'wosorls rst ng takes us to break.
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>> cramer. >> i've talked to the heads of almost every single one of these firms in the last 72 hours, he has no idea what it's like out there. none bill poole has no idea what it's like out there my people have been in this game for 25 years they're losing their jobs. these firm also go os will go of business they're nuts they know nothing! >> cramer. >> i have not seen it like this since i got hit in 1990. this is a different kind of
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market the fed is asleep! >> i bet you're not asleep now hard to believe that was 11 years ago today. wow. time is flying jim cramer sounding off on the federal reserve ahead of the global financial meltdown. he nailed that call. 11 years later, how is the fed doing? what's the risk scenario we're creeping in on that ten-year anniversary of the collapse oflehman brothers a guy who worked at lehman brothers, wrote a book about the financial collapse, larry mcdonald joining us now. i lived it you wrote a book, but you didn't have to because you lived through this you worked at lehman brothers. do you think the fed has gotten smarter? is there any risk we'll face anything like that in our lifetimes again? >> i was on the trading floor of lehman when jim did that, a number of us just stood up and said thank
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god. central bankers at the end of the day, they're like the pilot on an airplane, 767, with engine trouble. they want the fannies in the seats. they will not tell you the truth as we're heading towards the iceberg. they were hiding it. jim called them out. thank god he did we needed action here today we're in a similar situation. think about 2015/'16 central bankers promised us over and over again eight rate hikes in 2015 and 2016 they hiked twice so at the end of the day the global economy vetoed the fed policy path. u.s. economists, almost every run of them, are too u.s. centric focused. right now there's 62 trillion of gdp outside of the united states, there's 18 in. 62 and 18. so at the end of the day, we're looking at china melting down here you have a fed that's tightening
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policy at the same time reducing their balance sheet in september by 50 billion a month. at the same time the trump administration has their fingers around the china neck with tariffs. there's no question once again the global economy will veto this fed they will break the fed over their knee within the next six months >> why >> because global economy will feedba back to the u.s it's already happening as the fed has been hiking rates here the last six months, emerging markets have crumbled global gdp is down almost 100 basis points china is a major -- i think china is actually in recession ten years ago today, even in the spring of 2008, we were in recession and nobody knew it with the weakness in china, the credit tightening conditions in china are leaking over to
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australia, leaking over to canada, credit conditions in canada are the tightest in ten years, it's because of the fed's aggressive policy path, which i think is the right thing for the u.s. economy they should be aggressive. they will blow up the global economy within the next six months >> it's interesting. last night i was looking through some english language chinese media, trying to get an idea of what the chinese media was saying about trump and the trade fight. south china morning post, china daily, the english language papers over there, there's a lot of talk about the economy. a lot of talk about the xhurnt currency, but not a lot of talk that the stock market is down 20% in six months. is that the big warning signal that maybe not enough people are paying attention to? >> yes if you look at the shanghai composite, you're talking about a trend line going back to the '90s fx that 0s that about to bn
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they have central bankers, too these i goes are doing 6.6, 6.7% gdp, but the central bank has had to come up with emergency transfusions for the economy in the last three months. so why, if you're growing at 6.7%, why are you doing emergency financial conditions >> they put together 1$199 billion what they call a war chest to combat the ptariffs. here's a headline, no end to the yuan slide against u.s. dollar as trade war bites the currency market is the big one to watch right now, is it not? >> we have an index of our 21 lehman systemic risk indicators we've been working on since 2010, one of the major components is the yuan, it's a $12 trillion economy you can't have a $12 trillion economy whose currency weakens by 6%, 7% in three months it will obliterate the global
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economy, emerging markets are suffering. trading partners if you track the volatility of the yuan versus the vix, it's a very good leading indicator. we saw this in 2015, we saw this in 2016. each time the yuan weakened very fast in a short period of time, it took the vix with it. that's what's happening. at the end of the day, if you're the trump administration, you have midterms in november, you are going to put the feet of -- the fire under the feet of the china government within the next 30 days. that's your window so expect hard-core action here. you have a final determination on the tariffs in terms of fina finale -- fin naality. >> the majority of the comment
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tear is th commentary is this is damaging, it's bad however devil's argument here, chinese stock market is down 20%. they don't import that much u.s. stuff. our stock market, especially domestic stocks are soaring. the job market is hot. the president said you can win a trade war, i think he said it's easy is there going to be a u.s. victory of some kind here? >> the victory will be the trump administration the next 30 days will create much more stress in china. you're talking about the buying opportunity of one of the best in years, since 2016 the capitulation in china equities so look at the fx side, the crane shares, the "a" shares you will have an opportunity to buy into extreme capitulation. >> so don't buy now. if you want to buy china, the fx
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side, hold out, you can buy it cheaper. tvs will be on sale for the rest of the year. >> we have our capitulation model, we had a score of 8 out of 10. but we're coming into a major capitulation in equities in the next 30 days, it will be triggered by the trump administration, that's when you want to step in and buy some fear >> you're out there, putting it out there, that's why we like you. larry mcdonald, great stuff as always still to come, i'm sure you love it at the gas pump, but why are oil prices falling so much lately that's when "worldwide exchange" returns.
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that i grew up in. ♪ returns. good friday morning. here are your news headlines dangerous weather developing in virginia the city of lynchburg is under a flash flood warning and several areas have been evacuated due to fears of a massive dam collapse. water surging at the college lake dam and has filled beyond capacity there officials warn if the dam fails, the water could rise 17 feet inminuin 7 minutes. fiat chrysler is recalling some ram peckupspickups in the u.s. canada because of a defective tailgate that can open without
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notice. the nfl's 2018 season officially kicked off. the ravens and bears hit the field first for the hall of fame preseason game the rams got on the board first. a late score from the bears hurry-up offense made the game close, but a missed two-point conversion would give the ravens the win. more "worldwide exchange" after the break. g you everywhere? it's time to take back control with stelara®. for adults with moderately to severely active crohn's disease, stelara® works differently. studies showed relief and remission with dosing every 8 weeks. woman: stelara® may lower the ability of your immune system to fight infections and may increase your risk of infections and cancer. some serious infections require hospitalization. before treatment, get tested for tuberculosis. before or during treatment, always tell your doctor if you think you have an infection or have flu-like symptoms or sores, have had cancer, or develop any new skin growths, or if anyone in your house needs or recently had a vaccine. alert your doctor of new or worsening problems,
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how strong is the american jobs market?
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we are all about to find out we'll see if the president talks it up. oil tumbling in a big way over the past month. we'll find out why and where it's going from here >> and 600 reasons why tariff may be the world of 2018, at least on wall street we'll explain as this friday edition of "worldwide exchange" rolls on ♪ >> welcome back. happy friday stock futures are flat we're three hours away from the monthly jobs number. we are also on president trump tweet watch. we'll see if he talks that number up ahead of the actual number that rolls out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time we have a lot to get to. let's check the top headlines. contessa brewer has them for you. >> let's check on what's leading cnbc apple hitting a market cap of $1 trillion yesterday
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the first publicly traded u.s. company ever to reach that milestone. shares are slightly lower this morning bringing the market cap back below 1 trillion. >> shares of cbs are also lower despite recording an earnings beat on the call none of the analysts asked les moonves about the sexual harassment allegations against him. so the long-time network head was able to focus entirely on earnings he said he was confident the strategy in place sets the company up for long-term success. >> shake shack's second quarter earnings and revenue beat forecasts, but shares are down as the burger chain says delays in restaurant openings would slow revenue growth. brian? >> contessa, we'll see you in a few minutes. let's stay on the topic of trade. we know what our media in america is saying about trump and the trade fight. what are they saying in asia particularly in china? sri jegarajah has more on that great to see you
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>> hi, brian good morning to you. i would say the official and public mood as reflected in the mainstream media is one of defiance and almost on a daily basis what you hear from the commerce and foreign ministry in china is the same message, that they are ready to go with retaliation, counter measures of their own if the trump administration moves forward and imposes 25% tariffs on 2$200 billion worth of chinese goods it's worth pointing out this escalating trade conflict is hurting market sentiment in china. it is starting to be captured in the data case in point, factory activity really did moderate, 5-month and 8-month lows when you look at the official and private surveys, where does all this leave chinese equities? lower. the shanghai composite is down 16.3% year-to-date, making it the world's second worst
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performer this year. quick word on beijing's policy response, which has been loose in monetary policy and also somewhat controversially beijing seems to be more willing to tolerate depreciation in the currency yuan is on track for eight weeks of successive losses that's a fact not lost on the trump administration they are quite quick to tag beijing with the currency manipulation label worth pointing out treasury, u.s. treasury, semi-annual report on foreign currency practices, that's out in october. that will be closely watched and then dollar yuan with a 7 handle on it is the next number to watch out for >> the currency devaluation, as we have called it, the economic bazooka, the big story that
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maybe not enough people are talking about yet. the chinese economy may be slowing, but it's still massive. there may be a surprise winner in this. is australia going to benefit if we ship less goods to china? >> i saw those figures about export growth in the month of june that's strong for the australians. you have to appreciate the fact, brian, that july was really the month that we saw quite a meaningful and material escalation in this trade tension narrative. we could see slippage in the july data set in terms of exports from australia to china. but in terms of the bilateral relations, china and australia have a solid relationship that doesn't seem to be any meaningful beef that the two countries had. but i will say this, if the chinese macro position,
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especially the broader economy, deteriorates, as some say it will, there are some expectations that we could see 6.2% gdp in the fourth quarter that could really be a figure that could hurt the export market that could materially impact the terms of trade between australia and china. >> we have enough acronyms, but get to know chaft, the chinese australia free trade agreement stay tuned >> see you >> how is the u.s. trade fight impacting investors? let's bring in linda bacian. a year ago you were doing your job. you did not think about tariffs. now it's a daily term. how are you managing assets when you have to deal with this back and forth daily update on trade wars >> a year ago we were talking about tax cuts, that was the
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word of the quarter. now it's tariffs every year and every quarter there is a different set of concerns through all of this a diversified portfolio, balancing value and growth, diversification through sector securities and asset classes is really going to be the way to manage through all of these different worries that every quarter we seem to have. >> does it make you less likely to buy american stocks are you worried you have to take a little off the table because things may slow down >> no. no you want to buy more american as there will be more trade wars. you want to retreat back into the united states, the valuations are strong, and more importantly, the earnings, 20% eps growth, 10% revenue growth, a macro economic environment
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that is the strongest compared to other global nations. there will be volatility surely, but we'll still be best positioned relative to some of our european and asian counterparts >> are we the best neighborhood globally the u.s. >> we think we are you don't see 4% gdp growth, low unemployment rate, housing that's strong, inflation that is tame, and general economic activity and you have a president that is pro business reducing regulation and helping businesses grow. in our opinion, yeah, the united states is probably the best place to be. valuations are supportive still. >> linda, guess waving the flag for the united states. see you soon >> time for the top trending stories. contessa brewer has those. >> we're kicking things off with a double dose of auction news. hans solo's smuggler's jacket from the empires strike back and
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the hover board from back to the future 2 and a wonka bar from willy wonka and the chocolate factory are all hitting the auction block in london. these items are expected to fetch $10,000 each aren't hover boards dangerous? hans solo's jacket -- >> i don't think they're real. >> okay. also up for sale is prince harry's audi, which he used to get to pippa middleton's wedding and the same car he used to ferry meghan markle to the evening reception. he drove 100 miles round trip or kilometers in the uk but low mileage. little more than 4,000 miles on the odometer the bbc says it can be yours for about $944,000 >> not here. >> yeah. >> nope. that car is illegal here the rs6 avant is not sold in the united states. trust me i looked into it
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too fast not kidding. >> it's so funny you say that. i was just looking, apparently it is for sale, if you want to spend $181,000 >> you with have to bring it here, do a lot of work to it it is illegal in the united states >> can i say in the book how to be prince charming, drive 100 miles to get your date to the wetting. >> or 100 kilometers which is either further or shorter. >> it's something. >> france is cracking down on cat calling. a new law will fine cat callers, people who hoot and holler at usually women walking by they could be fined up to $900 for degrading, humiliating, intimidating or sexual comments on the streets. >> reporter: on public transportation the law goes into effect next month. typically, this is just my experience, typically people who cat call most likely can't
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afford to pay a $900 fine. >> people still do that? >> depends if you're over 40, doesn't happen nearly enough >> probably a good law >> a new study shows humans have a hard time powering down a robot when that robot begs for its life here's how the study went down more than 40 participants were instructed to turn off a robot more than a quarter balked -- >> don't do it i want to live >> as you know now in 2018, robots sound more like humans. the robot said -- >> but not as funny. >> did i say it's 2017 the robot said things like i'm afraid of the dark or no, please, do not switch me off, and participants dpaif a numb s
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of reasons why they did not follow instructions, but one of them was the robot told me not to we should all just surrender now to our ai overlords. on that note, have a great morning. drilling down on oil prices. they've seen a slump over the last month later on, wall street's new favorite word. one key term that's been used 600 times on earnings calls just this quarter n''s your rbi. dot switch off we're back after this. need a change of scenery? the kayak price forecast tool tells you whether to wait or book your flight now. so you can be confident you're getting the best price. giddyup! kayak. search one and done.
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one bottle has the grease cleaning power of three bottles of this other liquid. a drop of dawn and grease is gone. welcome back we are not seeing a big move in the dow futures. yesterday at this time we were down nearly 200. the market pulled and clawed it's way back and ended higher not a big move up right now. but the nasdaq and dow are in the green. we have the jobs number coming out in just under three hours from now we'll see if this economy continues to run hot and we'll find out if there are still workers out there. jobs can't grow if we don't have people to fill those positions that's been the theme of the job market another theme lately, lower oil prices and they are slipping again. overall crude oil is down more than 7% in the past month.
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look at oil and oil stocks they are related crude oil tends to move more over five years, oil is down 35. energy etf down 10%. you can clearly see or if you're on the radio imagine two lines that look similar. if you care about oil stocks, you need to care about oil where is oil going let's bring in clay siegel good to see you. thanks for joining us. inventory builds have been stockingly strong. is that a reason we've seen prices take a tumble >> we focus on inventories in cushing, oklahoma. that's a different story there we've seen months of inventory draw downs why is that appening demand is strong refineries are gobbling up crude. look at the shape of the forward
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price curve for oil, it's backwardated so prices are more expensive today than in the future so you're losing money if you try to store oil and move it forward. we're a big exporter now of crude oil, it's no surprise to see prices lower >> why do we keep hearing about supply builds in the u.s. and globally >> in other parts of the country, they are high because of bottlenecks in the infrastructure you always hear about the permian basin, the explosion of growth, the shale plays, but that's a bottlenecked area it's difficult to get that oil to market. the oil accumulates in those areas, and you have big differentials. >> we need oil here. we have too much here, need it there. that's probably going to be a decade-long fix. in the near-term, is the market
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saying oil prices are continuing to head lower? >> a lot depends on geopolitical risk you have venezuela, and they used to be a powerhouse supplying the americas, 3.5 million barrels a day. in past year s they're down to 1.3 million barrels. in a place like libya, it's not like a short-term problem. like in canada, something goes offline, they fix it in a few weeks or months. these are structural problems in places like venezuela, underinvestment in the fields, in the infrastructure, those problems will be there for the long haul. another wildcard is libya. it ranges from 1 million barrels per day to close to zero >> they've been fighting around the ports. the thing about venezuela is we need venezuelan oil. it's a thick, sludgy type of
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oil, which is very good for diesel fuel. so it's not easily replaced. >> it has an effect on global balance by grade you're right in the united states, the refining center on the gulf coast, houston, they are configured for that heavy oil. that's the feed stock they look for. >> do you think it's possible we hit 11 million barrels per day production, that's a record. do you think we could hit 12 million barrels in the next year >> that's an ambitious target, but the industry has the technology >> do we have the infrastructure >> we do we have the people and infrastructure to do it. you to have the right capital investment to grow at that robust level >> lay siegeein clay siegel, thr
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joining us on deck, we are counting you down to the monthly jobs number. we'll give you the big number to watch straight ahead. and 600 reasons why ritaff is wall street's new favorite word can be relentless.
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or have recently received a vaccine. ask your doctor about tremfya®. tremfya®. because you deserve to stay clearer. janssen wants to help you explore cost support options. ♪ >> we are just a few hours away from the big monthly jobs numbers. futures are up a touch let's bring in gus from pnc. a lot of numbers inside this number what's the most important number to you >> the most important number is we'll see the unemployment rated fall to 3.9% the job market is getting tighter and we're seeing stronger wage growth from 2018 into 2019. >> what would be a disappointing number for you what number would make you concerned that the federal reserve will have to put its foot on the gas pedal harder
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>> if we saw job growth of 250,000 or so, that would mean the labor market is getting close to overheating if we see excessive job growth, they may have to raise rates more quickly >> do you think they will? >> no, i think we'll see an increase in september then hold off for the rest of 2018, then a few increasesin 2019 the fed said that monetary policy remains accommodative, interest rates are lower than where they expected them to be, but they have some room. they can afford to increase rates gradually. so we'll see the job market slow but not a dramatic slowing >> we had a guest yesterday who thought they would raise in september, december, and january. that they're basically telling the market we're going up three times in the next six months
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do you think that's possible >> i don't think that's likely the fed said the economy was strong we have good gdp growth in the second quarter that being said we will see it slow around 3% in the second half of the year that's a good, solid number. that means that the economy will continue to improve. that won't lead to those really strong wage pressures that will lead the fed to tighten that aggressively >> what's wrong with the bond market the ten-year is like 3%. we can't seem to get above that despite the federal reserve raising rates and telling us they'll keep raising >> earlier guests talked about oil prices, and how they expect that to go down. that being said, i think we'll see longer-term rates move higher you have bigger budget deficits, that will raise borrowing costs. on the other hand you have the bank of japan, the european central bank continuing with the
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qe programs. that's putting downward pressure on the long end. >> so as an economist, you lock at the market and say things are good if the jobs number misses or beats, it doesn't matter we know the economy is absolutely on fire the fed is raising rates, but you have this whole tariff trump trade thing hanging out. how do you model, given such a big wildcard out there >> it's tough. you have to say, look, i think the status quo is likely to prevail. we may have a lot of noise, but not much heat. therefore we think the global economy and the u.s. economy will continue to expand. certainly you have to be prepared in case we do see big p tariffs on chinese made goods and autos, that's a huge risk, but the baseline is things look solid right now. >> right now there's not a lot of tariffs in place. there's some, there's been a lot
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of talk of tariffs, not a lot has been implemented let's say the worst-case scenario happens and we slap those 25% tariffs on 200 billion in goods do you ratchet down automatically your gdp estimates? >> absolutely. i think we would see slower growth we could see higher inflation. you know, it may cause the fed to raise more aggressively under those circumstances. i think if we see more substantive tariffs, then, yes, we would need to change our forecast dramatically over a short period of time >> if it happens, we'll have you back on. have a great weekend wrapping it up with your morning rbi, today it's about the "t" word, tariffs. the word tariff came up 290 different times on s&p 500 conference calls las
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this earnings season, 609 times, we're only halfway through the season have a great weekend "squawk box" is next no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks.
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cbs prohibiting questions on its conference call about harassment allegations against leslie moonves and the analysts actually stuck to the script. counting down to the july jobs report, it's less than three hours away the predictions, possible market reaction coming up. and after apple was the firs company to hit the trillion dollar mark, but it won't be the last we'll break down the front-runners next to hit that milestone. it's friday, august 3, 2018.
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"squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today our guest host is "new york times" corporate media reporter, ed lee, also a cnbc contributor. thank you for being here have some big stories going on today. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. you will see right now there's some slight green arrows talking about slight green arrows after a mixed day yesterday. the dow was down by 7 points or so yesterday you did see gains for the s&p 500 and the nasdaq was the big gainer, up by 1.4%, thanks to strength and technology news today's story is the jobs report and what is happening in asia based on all these tde

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