i think there could be a break-out here 115 115. this is the third attempt since 2015 in the summer let's see if it happens. third time it a charm. >> roku earnings good momentum on the stock >> thank you, guys thanks for watching. "power lunch" starts now scott, gentlemen, thank you very much. welcome to "power lunch. i'm tyler matheson here's what's on the menu. rate shock ahead jaime dimon says interest rates should be at 4% today, 5% not that far away. what would that mean for the markets, the economy, and your portfolio? tariffs are working big-time that's what the president said this weekend is he right? we're going to comb through the numbers, and trump's tweets to see what's true and where the math may not quite add up. and grab your wallet and your backpack, we've got your stocks shopping list for all the important back to school shopping seasons power lunch begins right now.

>> here are some other key movers facebook having its best day since april 26 apple continuing its run, hitting another all-time high. tyson jumping on strong results, and disney leading the dow and hitting a new 52-week high this ahead of its earnings release tomorrow hi, bill >> hi, courtney. i'm bill griffith. the bad penny that keeps coming back the administration has reimposed sanctions on iran who will be doing it this week sanctions would target iran's purchases of u.s. dollars. metals trading, cole, and its automotive sector. energy and oil sanctions will

take effect in november. elsewhere, according to fact set, 80% of s&p companies have reported quarterly results that beat expectations. now, if that number holds, this would turn out to be the best earnings season we've seen in nearly a decade. and, get this, the median home price in the hamptons out on long island has fallen below $1 million. second quarter sales down 12.8% compared to a year ago and the median price has fallen by 5.3%. how will they make ends meet there, tyler >> i don't know. i guess it gets a little easier now with the prices coming down, bill we're going to begin with trade. president trump doing a lot of tweeting about trade, tariffs, and the economy. kayla joins us from washington with the very latest hi, kayla. >> hi, ty. president trump over the weekend said tariffs are working big-time as a deficit reduction strategy that because of them the u.s. will be able to start paying down large amounts of the

$21 trillion in debt accumulated. tariffs are collected at the borders by the department of homeland security on behalf of the treasury department and while there aren't exact estimates available for what's come in this year, here is some back of the envelope math. the tariffs that are already in effect this year on steel and alum pneumonia as well as $34 billion in chinese imports would rake in about $17 billion a year based on last year's import levels other tariffs being considered on an additional $216 billion in chinese imports as well as cars and car parts from canada as we reported over the weekend, those bring in another $66 billion that's about $80 billion total not accounting for imports dropping or the administration negotiating any settlements. it is a small amount compared to the total budget deficit, which in june stood at $607 billion, ask it widened by $20 billion due to lower corporate taxes it's not the fifth the trump administration has touted tariffs as a revenue raiser.

in july commerce secretary wilbur ross briefed lawmakers on those metal tariffs, and he touted a $1 billion boon since june courtney, we'll see how long that tale can last and how much the white house can where i in >> i like the back of the envelope math. thanks for that. stocks higher right now after starting off the day in the red. let's get down to bob pasani at the new york stock exchange. he will give us a score card where we are now hi, bob. >> hi, courtney. we're at the highs for the day we're in a break-out last night. last three days, we were on a tear we were at 2, 800. august 2nd, 2,850. take a look at the sector. i hate to keep saying the word rotation, but it keeps working financials are strong. energy discretionary intel down a bit, but everything else moves forward this is a great rotation look at the last three trading sessions we're up 50 points 1.8% on the s&p 500. consumer staples had been leading. who would have thought that was possible techs helped consumer discretionary doing

well health care. a little under performing, but all are contributing here. loofr stuff going on with that quarter, though. companies reporting earnings generally we've held up pretty good 24% on the second quarter, and generally held up very well for the third quarter, which is what we care about. it was about 23% at the start, so we're down a little this is q3 on the estimate bottom line is excellent quarter again. no significant cuts in the third quarter. that's the reason we're 20 points from an historic high back to you. >> all right, bob. thank you. we'll check back with you a little later as tyler mentioned earlier,

jaime dimon has reiterated his call the ten-year treasury should be at 4%, which is basically 100 basis points where they are right now, and he goes on to say you better be prepared to deal with rates of 5% or higher it's a higher probability than most people think. is he right? and what would rates at those levels mean for the markets and the economy? let's bring in peter anderson, chief investment officer at anderson capital management and scott, senior global equity strategist with wells fargo investment institute >> welcome back, bill. >> peter, theoretically we would be that high if the inflation rate were higher, if the economy were a little stronger i mean, the rate reflects what the economy is doing right now, right? >> most of the time. that's what the text books tell us, and the economists tell us it isn't always the case i think the most important thing that mr. dimon might be hinting at is maybe we could decouple

the u.s. economy if i dare say so from all the trade tariff noise that we're seeing. the day to day changes in tweets, et cetera, make investors really uncomfortable, i think, with what direction the economy is going in, and for mr. dimon to zero in on the u.s. treasury rates, i think is pretty smart because where i think he is implying, hey, while we've got all this noise going on and this three-ring circus, and the center ring the u.s. economy looks pretty good, and i'm preparing for higher rates >> what would 4% due to the economy right now, do you think? >> well, bill, i think you need tighter capacity, higher inflation, better gdp growth certainly you can't extrapolate this 4.2% number out into, let's say, a rolling four quarters ahead. based on what we're doing, let's say we end the year 3, 3.5, probably on the lower end of that we just don't see rates moving that much higher

i think the ten-year -- you look at the ten-year now, it's struggling to stay over 3%, and i think we're at 294 right now to me, you know, that's telling you something. i mean, the bond market, which, you know, i'm an equity strategist, but the bond market is usually smarter than the stocks, and that's telling me we're not going to have a surge or a consistent surge in economic growth, and i think that's probably the case. >> stocks are at or maybe a little ahead of fair value

when we look out over the next 12 months, you know, maybe you're looking at 5% plus a couple percent for dividends let's call it a 5% to 7% total return for the s&p 500 you know, stocks are not cheap by any stretch, but i still think, you know, we want our investors in this market we want them leaning toward a continuation of this expansion >> peter, what about the idea that we could be getting very, very close to an inversion when you look at the yield curve? does that suggest to you that we should be worried about an economic recession it typically has in the past >> it typically has, and one of the things that delights me about the prediction of higher interest rates is that that kind of dismisses this whole inverted yield curve silliness, frankly i don't think that the inverted yield curve. >> you can see the u.s. economy is doing quite strong, and also in terms of the s&p we want to look at valuations

i disagree with your other guests we're now forward rates, and we're about the average p.e. that it has been over the past 35 years i think the economy is robust. i think if you -- whether or not you look out the window or are looking at all your economic data, it still signals that we're full steam ahead >> well, the keyword there being steam, which is what we're experiencing here in new york city that's for sure. thank you, both. peter anderson, scott wren >> thanks, guys. >> we're only ten minutes into the show, and we're already with a news alert >> the ceo and chairman of nascar was arrested last night for driving under the influence and possession of a controlled substance, oxy codone. we just got a statement issued by nascar to cnbc saying, "we are aware of an incident that occurred last night and are in the process of gathering information. we take this as a serious matter and will issue a statement after we have all the facts. now, remember, nascar is a privately held family-owned

company. it could be up for sale if reports are accurate it could be up for sale to a marnl media company or private equity investor. it's definitely something to watch if this might affect that sale value back to you, guys. >> thank you very much her departure means fewer than 5% of fortune 500 companies will now be run by women why is that number still so low? ncerill discuss that on "pow ncerill discuss that on "pow luh. i te it's about quality. no trendy stuff. i want etfs backed by research. is it built for the long-term? my reputation depends on it. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

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>> one of the longest serving female ceos of pepsico will step down in october after 12 years at the helm. she's part of a running list of ceos that have departed recently the number of female fortune 500 heads has dropped 25% this year. what does her departure mean for women this in leadership positions. we have the current ceo and founder of think market, and on the newsline is suzy welch, cnbc contributor and author of "winning." welcome to both of you lisa, let me begin the number, that 25% of female ceos have stepped away over the last year. that's a large number, but it doesn't take many when the sample size is so small. why is the sample size so damn

small still? >> if you think about companies that are women and nurturing them to be leaders in business >> with 80% of purchasing, consumer purchasing power being held by women, women should be leading these companies, and one of the questions really is why why aren't women staying and sort of battling it out, and i think part of the reason is that it's a tough position to be ceo of a publicly held company, and we need to think about and actually boards of directors and chairs need to be thinking about how do we help women become ceos in big companies in america.

so few women are running big companies? >> she answered that question herself. she said, no look, what i'm doing is incredibly hard. what every working mother, working wife is trying to do in corporate america is incredibly hard you have a lot of -- there's a lot of consequences to it. you miss a lot she herself spoke openly about it it used to be -- she fought through those pain points. there's an off ramp for people who want to be in business and want to have more control, and that's to run their own bank

it used to be you fought through the corporate hierarchy, and you had a lot of pain, and you gave up a lot or you went home, and you didn't like that either. it was an either/or. the number of women in the pipeline going up to the suite is contracting, and there's more women in it, because they're going elsewhere. you might be able to control it somewhat, and can you do that more when you are an entrepreneur >> it's a choice of women saying i don't want to fight through that hierarchy and i want to do my own thing, and i can win in that area of my life in that way. >> i think more and more companies really want women to be rising in the raengs. maybe just for the optics of it, and women have proven that they're great and that they can deliver a lot of value as lisa so wisely points out, women have 80% of the purchasing power. i think there's a desire in corporate america now, but -- and so they're developing more

women, that the pipeline was not huge to begin with, but the fact is it's getting smaller because women are saying, forget it. i don't want what she is having. i'm going to have all the consequences that come with being a working mom or whatever. i would rather be able to control it somewhat. >> lisa, do you agree with that? i'm struck when we look at the wall we've build here of the ceos, the women ceos who have left this year, they're all -- except for maybe marissa meyer, of the same generation you know, there is a generation behind them, but to suzy's point, maybe that generation isn't fighting the battle to climb the corporate ladder they're going someplace else >> if you think about it, suzy and i graduated harvard business school 30 years ago. at that time the biggest draw where people went was cuonsultin and investment banking and those in the know went to private equity one of the questions is why. again. and these women and men went into those fields partly because

wealth, wealth creation, and also because of the ability to break new ground i think if you look at corporate america, it moves more slowly and the ability for women to rise the sea suite is still very narrow there are only three companies with a woman that is ceo and chair of the board i'm sorry. there are only three companies where there are two women, a woman ceo and a woman chair. there are not -- we all look to our own networks to bring people along, and those networks aren't women. it's a hard choice to go into corporate america and feel that you have the ability and the opportunity to rise. >> go ahead, suzy. >> i was going to add that -- the problem continues with the board. i was recently talking to the ceo of a large energy company, and he said i can't recall any women to high levels in my

compa company. i can't because they look at me and they say there's no women on your board it goes all the way up you want to go work at a company, if you are an executive woman, where, you know, there's somebody on the board who if you wanted to have a conversation with or wanted to relate to her, she's not there. >> i like to think that there are positive steps i believe in the past year there have been more board nominations that are women, but we need to see it happening bigger, better, faster so that it can trickle down. >> it isn't just having women. there are pain points that i believe aren't being addressed for women to rise, and a lot of women, as suzy said, are finding

opportunities for wealth creation and elsewhere, and making the decision that, you p what, the pain points are too big in corporate america, and i want them to address them first. >> there is mentorship everywhere, and i think men and women are stepping up to mentor, but it's hard, and those points are not being addressed. >> interesting an ongoing conversation, suzy welch. lisa, thank you as well. >> well, sotheby's shares falling on disappointing earnings we'll tell you which paintings are to blame for the shortfall >> speaking of blame, the one game you can still play at toys "r" us hopefully the blame game who is responsible for the fall-out of that iconic brand? power lunch will be right back this is a tomato you can track from farm, to pot, to jar, to table. and serve with confidence that it's safe. this is a diamond you can follow from mine to finger, and trust it never fell into the wrong hands. ♪ ♪

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and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. snoo shares of sotheby's down 5% after disappointing results. robert frank joining us. blame picasso. blame -- >> it's rare that two paintings can take down a stock, but that's exactly what happened today. sotheby's missing the earnings this morning versus the estimate at $156. what really rattled investors was a story of just two paintings that missed big on the auction block and brought down the overall margins. that's very important measurement for sotheby's. sotheby's didn't name the paintings, but sources tell me the first painting was one that was expected to sell for $150 million, and sotheby's had gaern teed for about that amount, but it hammered for about $139,000 the fee paid by the seller still

made it profitable, but just barely now, the second painting was a lot worse. it was picasso's 1932 portrait of his mistress. sotheby's agreed to pay the siller around $45 million, but it hammered for $36 million. even after the buyer's fee, they ended up losing between $6 million to $7 million on just that painting alone. >> they promised more to the seller than they were able to get from a buyer, and they had to make up the difference. >> the tough thing as an auction house is not selling the painting, where it's getting the good stuff to sell from the sellers, and more and more as we get more competitive they're having to up those guarantees for the seller making big and

bigger bets with the house money. when they don't sell, it's very expensive. we saw in the last down cycle it got expensive for them and christy's. >> is this a special situation >> i i think this shows -- getting the good stuff is getting tougher. the fall sales will be a real test of whether they continue to do those guarantees or whether they back off and just allow the competitor to get the good stuff. then they get all the headlines. >> is this a particularly coveted picasso? it was hard to tell what the woman looked like. >> they overpriced it. pricing in the art market is an art, not a science >> she was an tractive woman >> i give you $1.39 for that i don't understand modern art. >> robert, thank you >> thank you, guys >> irngs that, robert. president trump tweeting this weekend about the effectiveness of tear ofs on chinese goods. you can see the shanghai

composite down 13% in four months, while the s&p 500 is up 7% we're going to fact check the president's claims on tariffs, and we'll ask a man whose job it is to connect u.s. companies with chinese manufacturers about the impact of the tariffs. stay with us whoooo. tripadvisor makes finding your perfect hotel... relaxing. just enter your destination and dates. tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites to find the hotel you want for the lowest price. dates. deals. done!

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zbliefrmt i'm sue herrera. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. president trump signing an executive order reimposing many sanctions on iran. three months after pulling out of the iran nuclear deal the european union along with the foreign ministers of germany, france, and the u.k. issuing a statement criticizing the move venezuela's attorney general says all of the perpetrators and their immediate collaborators of the apparent failed attempt to assassinate president nicolas mm maduro he might use the attack to further suppress his critics the chairman and ceo of nas yar brian france, was arrested for dui and possession of oxycodone sunday evening in the

hamptons france's blood level was more than twice the legal limit nascar says they are aware of the incident and in japan hiroshima marking the 73rd anniversary of the 1945 atomic bombing with a somber ceremony to were the victims. the u.s. attack killed 140,000 people in the city three days later the nagasaki bombing killed 70,000 more you are up-to-date that's the news update this hour courtney, i'll send it back to you. >> thank you very much, sue. appreciate it. let's get a check on the markets right now. higher across the board. the dow turning positive midday. financials, consumer discretionary, energy, those are the leaders. real estate, though, the only sector sitting in the red, leaving the dow. disney, dow dupont, and goldman sachs. president trump tweeting a lot about tariffs saying they are working big-time steve liesman is here to check his claims steve. >> thanks very much. let's take a look at the president's tweet over the weekend on tariffs, saying they

are working, as tyler said, big-time every country on earth wants to take wealth out of the u.s always to our detriment. i say as they come tax them if they don't want to be taxed, but then make or build a product in the u.s. let's take a look at this line by line here tariffs are working big-time well, the trade deficit is rising might be up by $100 billion this year, so not working in that regard the dollar is strengthening, making the u.s. less competitive from a terms of trade standpoint only mexico so far some whispers out of europe. looks to be close to a trade deal next line here every country wants to take wealth out of the u.s. every country trades for its own benefit. we established that 300 years ago under adam smith it's not even countries that are trading. it's companies and individuals trade is not a zero sum game both are supposed to win a bit on this, and we send dollars to them they send us goods, not sure how that is to our detriment moving on here, i say as think

come tax them. it's u.s. consumers and companies that mostly pay higher prices not the only companies it means great jobs and great wealth well, unfortunately, most economists say tariffs reduce jobs and reduce wealth in fact, one study shows it's a 5-1 ratio. for every one job we save, five could be lost. finally, because of tariffs, we're able to start paying large amounts of the $21 trillion of debt that has been accumulated much by the obama administration while at the same time reducing taxes for our people at a minimum, we'll make much better trade deals for our country. let's take a look at this little piece here well, because of the tariffs, we're going to pay down debt well, tariff revenue is in billions maybe tens of billions the deficit on an annual basis in a trillion. the total debt is in trillions the more we spend the fiscal deficit, that raises our trade deficit to import capital. tariff revenue is offset will be offset by slower u.s. growth in those industries that are hurt by it finally, we'll make much better trade deals for our country.

well, that is entirely possible. lower tariffs or tree trade. tariffs remove those advantages, giving u.s. and foreign companies incentive to make and sell goods in the united states, and then one more piece. this will lead to better trade deals for american workers and businesses taxes on unfairly subsidized -- also a source of revenue the administration's point of view, and kind of what we hear from the economists, bill. >> professor, thank you so much. >> now, kyle bass, the noted hedge fund manager, predicted the subprime mortgage collapse, and he is siding with president trump on the issue of trade.

here's what he said abou tariffs on "squawk on the street" this morning >> china has been fighting a trade war for the last ten years. the u.s. has just realized that we haven't been fighting for the last decade, so we're starting to push back china doesn't like it. look, the trump administration's lack of predictability is an asset to the u.s. in two areas, i think. in our trade negotiations with china, and in our -- let's say other negotiations with north korea. >> but at what cost is the pushback against china joining us right now, nathan resnic, the ceo of a company called source-ify. it helps u.s. companies find overseas factories for manufacturing purposes nathan, thanks for joining us today. >> thank you for having me >> what impact have you seen in this -- in the ability of companies to find outsourcing factories in china you are seeing some factories clouds in china, right, or are planning to? >> it's crazy too that at

source-ify we help hundreds of companies manufacture products around the world, and we see chinese factories that could transition outside of china to the philippines and vietnam, and there's an increased demand for american companies now to produce products outside of china and vietnam, thailand, the philippines. all across asia. these trade tariffs are really having a big effect on this. >> so it is the result of the threat of tariffs and some of the tariffs that have already been imposed that you are seeing this happening now is that the idea >> it was. i mean, i was on a flight last week from the philippines, from manila tower on office, and i was sitting next to a chinese factory owner, and he has already opened up another factory in the philippines to really help diversify his supply chain for his customers. >> but, nathan, hasn't this been going on for some time in general that even large companies so perhaps larger than the ones that you work with, have been trying to diversify their supply chain, so that they're not all in on china, that they've been trying to move to vietnam and bangladesh as

some examples, indonesia as well this is want just the result of the trade and the tafriv itarif. has been happening for a while >> the longer -- it rises are well aware and really understand how to diversify their supply chain, but for the e-commerce companies that are fueled through shopify or amazon, a lot of times they're still based in china and now having to diversify their supply chain outside of china, but the problem is all these larger enterprises have taken up the capacity at all the good factories across vietnam, the philippines, and thailand, and so you see a lot of companies really scrambling because for an e-commerce company or even a fast-growing start-up, they aren't able to pay, you know, 25% more on their imported products >> in other words, they'll open

factories at the expense of chinese factories. go open factories in the philippines and i understand ease - indonesia and so forth the labor rates in the philippines are about one-third of what it costs in china in a lot of these major cities, and so factories have continued to move outside of china and the tariffs are just spiking this trend, but at the end of the day the raw material, you know, the raw material that you need to produce all sorts of clothes or fashion items, you know, really still come from china so these factories now are having to import their raw material from the china fabric mills to their cotton facilities in vietnam or the philippines or thailand. >> the big 50,000 foot question is i would like to get your opinion on this, how much of the trade dispute, the tariffs, do you think are directed specifically at addressing unfair training practices, and how much of it do you think is directed at really disintermediating, to use a 75

cent word, disintermediating china from the global supply chain and thereby, weakening china's economy? >> i think it kind of leads towards the weakening of chinese economy. i mean, if you look at what they've been doing with their currency right now, for example, their currency at the u.n. is at a 13-month low, and so the chinese, you know, government is really kind of trying to push back on these tariffs by saying, look, we can kind of control our currency a bit and make it still affordable way to buy and produce products in china and that is actually now putting pressure on vietnam and these other, you know, southeast asian countries to say, look, you know, if we have to compete with lower chinese currency, at the end of the day, you know, it really causes a lot of problems for companies that are producing products throughout asia >> i got to go here, nathan, but a very big question here we're talking about a one-way street going overseas for manufacturing. are you seeing -- the president wants to see more manufacturing here in the u.s. are you seeing any companies that are deciding to do it here

in the u.s.? >> you know, it depends on the products, but for the large amount of items that are sold, you know, through e-commerce platforms, at the end of the day the labor rates here in america are just too high, and so they're actually diversifying outside of china to other southeast asian countries rather than bringing production back to america. >> nathan with sourceiy, thanks for joining us very interesting let's go over to the bond market rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. hi, rick >> hi, courtney. you know, we're drifting off into the bottom of the range we're below the lowest close since we jumped the broom from the 280s into the 290s on the 23rd of july if you look at the february 1 st start of this year to tens, we really have spent a good chuck chunk of the year in very tight closing ranges outside those very few forays above 3% foreign exchange, yes, it's all about the dollar hovering at the best levels since july 17th. let's break it down into the

pieces let's look at a july start to the euro versus the dollar even though you could see it's not quite there yet, it is just about there with respect to trading down dollar index a little ahead of the euro specifically and the same could be said for the pound versus the dollar there's a chart starting in september of last year these are the lowest levels outside of september and what's fascinating is all the issues that mr. kearney addressed when he raised rates seem to be moving in counter intuitive directors as the pound reflects. courtney, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick could trade tensions with china have an impact on u.s. real estate? up next, we'll look at the hot seattle market, which what happens there if chinese buyers stop buying. that's coming up on "power lunch. duncan just protected his family

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>> welcome back to "power lunch. seattle hasone of the hottest housing markets inamerica, but one outside force may start throwing a little bit of cold water on the scorching hot demand there that would be weakening interest from chinese buyers. are sellers about to be sleepless in seattle let's bring in -- i couldn't resist -- director of economic research at zillow, and steven saunders, managing -- managing broker at caldwell banker at bain in seattle. are you seeing any precipitous fall-out in chinese buyers, and my guess would be that the chinese buyers were buying mostly condos and downtown properties rather than single family homes in some of the suburbs like bellview, or

whatever >> yeah. i mean, we're actually not seeing too much of a drop in demand in general. i think a lot of it has to do with the fact of what you just noticed. right? if there is a lot of chinese demand, it's investor activity, and it comes in on the much higher end, right? in thererms of the market as a whole, chinese buyers are not moving very much right? it's low inventory that's driving things there when we did look at, say, what happens to chinese buyer activity, say, with the devaluation of the yuan, what happens is not an interest that pulls back in terms of how many investors are coming to the area what changes is the price point that they're looking at. >> same question to you, steven. are you seeing a drop-off in chinese interest, and if so, in what segments of the market? i take it, sky lar is exactly right, that their activity tends to be concentrated at the million plus price point >> i think sky lar has it spot on there what i am noticing with my feet on the ground here in the field

is that i am seeing a difference in price point i'm now seeing more of the $500,000 to $600,000 price point range, and that that means is i have to go outside the city. i have to go an hour north, and we start looking at houses in that regard. what my clients have been saying, it's not necessarily tied to the devaluation of the yuan, as it is to currency controls becoming even more restrictive than they were even six months ago, and i think this kind of had to do with the start of these trade tensions right now. >> are prices overall in the seattle market, and take it out of downtown and widen it out a little bit to the towns out there. are they coming down are they just not going up as fast?

>> slower than we have been for the previous few years that we've been in the double digits, but still at a very rapid was faster than national and faster than actually many major metropolitan areas across the u.s. >> steven, same question to you. do you see that? >> yeah, yeah. i would add to that that i'm seeing a flattening of the market sky lar said it's not going down, and i think flattening of a real estate market especiall with as much frenzied activity as we've had is a good thing i think it's a positive thing. i think it deflats some of our theories of a bubble i think it's healthy all around. we have an unbelievable economy here just a booming economy, and i think that we're definitely not going to be declining. we'll just be appreciating at a slightly lower rate. >> go ahead. finish your thought.

>> yeah. what we've been observing here is it's really driven by economic fundamentals, right a lot of demand, and it's really hard for supply to respond it's really hard for us to build more units in this area. that kind of dynamic doesn't pop, right that dynamic slows down as demand exhausts itself or a supply finally responds, which it's not looking like that's happening. >> brad good lives out there there's no better place to be in august every summer than seattle. it is the best >> exactly >> way more refreshing >> thanks. appreciate it. >> thank you >> thanks for being here thank you. >> it's got to be cyclical at the same time, though. miami, look at the number of times that that thing has popped and then come back las vegas. i will tell you when we took power lunch years ago to miami, the famous incident when i had two of the top real estate agents sitting there right with me saying buy miami real estate. it never goes down in price. well, that range a bell right there. >> same thing happening in seattle right now.

clearly. >> here it is, the 6th of august, but school is starting already in some parts of the country, and up next, an early look at the back to school shopping season, and who could benefit from it, but one place you can't go for that new backpack or lunchbox, of course, would be toys "r" us, where whose fault is that? we're playing the blame game coming up on "power lunch.

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click, call or visit a store today. . so, as you know toys "r" us is now closed for good but there is one gain we can still play you ready? the blame game leslie picker here is look at whose fault it is that we lost that great retaile >> hi, bill. it's amazing that when they closed doors a month ago that meant the loss of 33,000 jobs. the july jobs report on friday was a bleak remind are of the casualty buy lying the otherwise healthy employment pictures. the workers and several members of congress blame private quiet. they were acquired in a leveraged buy out in lenchtd debts. the firms payed themselves hundreds of millions of dollars as to its r us slid into

bankruptcy many employees and several politicians from new jersey where toys "r" us is based argue the p.e. firms should compensate the workers. the reports last week said the employeesy on capitol hill asking for legislation that would embed more worker protection into private equity investments. for their part be the p.e. firms be willing to provide some aid for the former employees outside of the bankruptcy process. in a letter back to congress, k.k.r. said they do not want to toys "r" us to be liquid eighted. but it was forced by the creditors. that the firm said they didn't actually profit from the investment, guys >> their p.e. was behind so many of the bankruptcies last year and so far this year i have the tracker and i was quickly trying to jot them done but limited aerosol with wet seal a number of that we have had earlier this year. they are so leveraged. they don't have money available to plow money into the invest to be competitive and move forward. >> they don't have the rainy day

fund that you would like if you are a struggling retailer to have carbon the sideline you can then use for investment, use as a way to kind of turn around your business. now the private equity firms will argue that that's what they do they are turn around experts >> sure. >> but when you service that large amount of debt it can be more difficult to have the extra carbon hand. >> don't they pay themselves feesout that have. >> absolute lie. >> exactly. >> to say they were in the profitable they may not have been profitable but there was nice cash flow. >> that's why they call it a leveraged buyout. >> there are ways like dividend recaps theyky pay themselves they say they did write down the value of the investment. >> thank you leslie. appreciate that. well it's every kid's worst nightmare but great for retailers. august marks the peak time for back to school shopping. the national retail federation expects consumer spend fog reach $82 billion this season. which retail resist benefit most joining sus now liz dunne. thanks for being here. back to school is tough because some of the shopping begins in

july prime day was a big day for back to school shopping from what we understand from both amazon and other players. but a lot of kids going back in the midwest and other weeks. what's your read. >> i think the back to school is strong the consumer is in good shape because of jobs and wages. it's fight labor market. the consumer has more money, more people employed and i think that's driving overall strong sales. also, some trends in consumer electronics and also a little bit of trend in apparel. the other thing you see is some of this capacity come out of the marketplace. so your -- you know the previous segment some of the companies have gone bankrupt some stores closed that good for retailers that are still around. >> and when you think about the retailers that are still around and the combination of shopping that gets done, some of it probably is online with these very easy checklisting wal-mart, target all the programs. the teacher up load the program. one click sthopg done.

isn't going to the stort part of the equation. >> i read parents spend more when the kids come with them to shop in the physical store for sure. >> um-hum. >>en a you know, the kids want to shop. this is their opportunity where they have a budget and can go are forepersonsed to buy apparel. they like that i think you see people go into stores still the majority of sales happen in the physical stores >> i don't know the demographics are we in a baby boom right now? what's the demographic for school age kids right now. >> you know, generation z is the school age kid. >> yes. >> they're of a interesting generation very informed and they want to be involved in the purchase decisions. they're strong advocates in re this households for rg the parents spend money on particularly if it has to do with them. >> you mentioned to your some hot products in electronics and apparel items. who and what and and where. >> when will, you know, i think all of the connected home and the assistance, all and a half

is still hot and now we see families have multiple different assists in the home people are ordering things v.ia voice i think there is some trend in -- in you know there is always trend in phone and those sorts of things. i think in apparel you know you see some life in some of the specialty retail names they're kind of avoidable in terms of trading because they are so so volatile but if you see the come store sales of urban outfitters, american eagle they are strong right now. >> thank you rb z o, liz. >> thanks for having me. >> my son is big in vinyard vine stuff. >> tnt guy apple and google kicking off -- kicking a controversial political commentator off the platforms. smart move for the first step down a slippery slope. we debate that and facebook wants to partner with your bank will users trust facebook enough to say yes to this partnership

that and more coming up as we kick-off the second hour of power in two minutes time.

what's coming up on power lunch. the first trillion dollar

company, a record market and the lehman anniversary the headline haves some saying the bull cycle a late phase but does later mean over we make sense of the market milestones and banking on facebook. the social giant is in talks with banks to add financial information to its messenger platform in as it continues to battle privacy concerns so will consumer buy into that well it's never too early to have the big talk with your kids we'll tell you how and when is the right to talk to them about money. get your head out of the gutter power lunch starts now >> not that big talk i'm bill griffeth, welcome to "power lunch." markets moving for the most part off session highs for the most part nasdaq leading the way for a fifth straight day of games are gains. what's interesting is lately the nasdaq and smaller cap russell 2000 have been lagging the mechanic recent as we went to

new highs here but new they've come back. we were asking recently, tyler, whether the fang trade was over. apparently not so never mind. >> tyler. >> i know they want me to read that but i pass. >> again. >> you mention oil stocks i didn't realize there was more there. >> that's right. the important thing to remember is that the fangs still have bite. >> yes they do. >> all right well welcome, everybody. bill introduced me kindly. i'm tyler mathisen, in case you forgot from four minutes ago according to goemds here is what else happening companies are set to buy back a trillion worth of shares this year a new record august is the busiest month of the year for buybacks and goemds says the activity could give a boost to the market. >> the newell brands saying the results for the rest of the year will be impacted by tariffs and could cost it $100 million that's a crock the stock down 13% on the news

process and the toy industry saw sales jump 7% the first half of 18 they were bolstered by sales of robotic and interactive toys. >> thank you very much tyler let's begin with the markets the first trillion dollar market and the lehman anniversary the record bull market the shortage of milestones, not. mike is at the at the nyse how to make sense. >> doesn't it seem wamz is busy commemorating the landmarks. you hit on some in about two weeks time we are on track to basically christian the current bull market as the longest in history by the conventional definition there you see a 10 opinion year chart of the s&p that looks like a steady unbrumted streak since march of 200937 a month after that it's ten years since the dploegs of lehman brothers which brought on the crisis. and then apple we talked about last week hitting a trillion

dollars. the subtext of the conversation is look how far we came in the mechanic does that mean we don't have farther to go? are these signs we are in a critically late phase for the bull market? let me take them one by one and suggest that maybe things are not grit quite as far along as that might seen. in terms of the age of the bull market the conventional defrgs says long it doesn't sferns a 20% decline from the s&p 500 then the bull market is under way. by that definition we have been in the unpresident interrupted bull market for the longest stretch of time since march of the '09. 2011 is went down 20% np in two most global measures went down 20%. maybe this reset the clock a little bit that's the bullish markets will tell you. the 10th anniversary of lehman significant event. landmark but the 10 year trailing return

for stocks since the moment before lehman brothers failed. has it bit more than 20% not extreme. usually at the end of the major bull market the 10-year trailing return is 15 or more higher. finally. apple had a $trillion. it says a lot about asset markets in general how much more they worth general inflation and the huge economic footprint of apple. it's no bigger in the s&p than microsoft in 1999 or other stocks before that and it says this is a company with a quarter trillion in revenue and record profits in the history of all corporate activity that tells you a trillion dollars makes sense here based on what we know now about the fundamentals of the company. all is says maybe not over yet. >> a trillion dollars i like it. who is afraid of that $a trillion. >> pretty mind boggling number. >> appreciate it very much we have guests to talk it out. does the bull run have more room to go or will trade concerns

derail it mark hogan and the founding proton partner with united capital, joe what do you think, joe, bull market more room to run or are we done and over >> no, we have more room to run. i just think the nature of what happens from here on out might be a little different than what we have experienced. i think the two things to stair at, one we have had a historically low volatility and haven't even had a modest pullback for about three years now. it's a long time we are due for one. second the things that got us here are not getting us forward. i would say thinking about how you are invested now should look a little different than it was certainly three years ago and even more so than ten years ago. >> okay so the composition could look different going forward but not done yet what do you think, art we talk about trade fierce and concerns president trump president trump in the interview with joe kernen says we are playing with house money. we can afraid this

because the economy and the markets are so strong. is that the right way to think about it are we strong enough to absorb the negative accuracy effects of a trade war. >> well it's interesting i think that's a good point. the administration is doing the same thing the doing and link against the strong economy in the administration's case they want to have fair trade trade and the fed's case they want normal monetary policy. you might as well do it when the fundamentals are strong. if not for the concerns, the market would be doing much better and the fundamental back drop is better than the mechanic looks like right now when you think about the composition of trade going for the next 12 months though i think that you know, we're correct in thinking what got us here probably doesn't take us out. i would prefer small cap and domestically focus i think trade concerns are dragging out longer than just the fall and we are thinking the russell 2 is outperforming the s&p it's trailing about 400 basis

points i think to shelter the volatility around trade. stay small and domestically focus and avoid the large multinationals >> mall and domestically focus ds that's not faeng. and that's a trade working for so much of this year despite road bumps over the last week or two. joe what do you think about going forward with if the rally continues but looks different than the rally we have seen, what do you look at bying? >> well, the fang trade just -- this is the first time since 2000 that we have had five stocks represent 15% of the value of the russell 3,000 so that's a market that i'd watch out for. and so what i'd like to own a slightly more defensive stocks tilt toward value which has underperformed the last several years and protects you in a bumpy environment. and second things like health care, financials that even though we have slightly rising rates tend to be more defensive

in nature. and if we saw volume tirlt with, which i think is highly likely -- as i said earlier this year we are due for the 15% correction i think that's increasing -- increasingly more likely as we get further from the tax cuts. and so again, i think the next seks six months you want to be defensive names. still participate be long, but be prepared for more noise than the last few years. >> thank you gentlemen for joining us art and jeff as you know, apple became the first u.s. publicly traded company to hit $1 trillion market cap they were talking about huge milestone. but at this valuation how much influence of the stock market does apple have right now? dominic chu spent the weekend pondering that topic. >> apple is arguably the most important stock in the u.s. market publicly traded universe because it has such huge waiting for the market cap weighted indices like the s&p 50 on and

the nasdaq and it kaerps the most weight. let's put in perspective first of all given the weighting we are about 4.2% weighted for apple in the s&p 500. microsoft in second place at 3.5% alphabet the parent company of dw google 3.1% amazing about the same range and facebook a little far behind but still almost at 2% weighting in terms of apple being the biggest in the s&p 500 let's put it in more perspective. if you look at over time, the most heavily weighted stocks in the s&p 500, howard slr blat at s&p dow jones indices looked back to 1980 at the year end waitings for sout will ibm big blue with the biggest weighting in the snch 500 on a relatively basis in 1985 where it was nearly 6.5% of the overall s&p 500 remember 4.2% for apple today. at&t at 1 pount 9815.5% np exxonmobil was a 5% weighting then microsoft back near the

height of.com nearly a 5% weighting in the s&p 500 as well pl to put it in perspective, folks further. the current market company cap of the s&p 500 the end of the last month was $25.8 trillion. if apple became a 6.4 weighted% in the s&p 500 would make apple worth between 1.6 and 1.7 tril dollars. a lot of folks saying plab maybe there is more room to run. >> coming up big bigsz, warming up to democrats. could that make a difference in the mid-terms? that story is next plus facebook wants to partner with your bank why? and what information do they want we have the latest on that and the great censorship, apple, facebook, spotify. removing infowars from their platform all that and more ahead on power

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well, thele midterm elections may be three months away but president trump is already campaigning on the road and on twitter here is what he tweeted this morning. maybe you saw it he wrote great financial numbers announced on an almost daily basis. the economy never better jobs at the best point in history. fixing our terrible trade deals is a priority and going very

well immigration on merit-based system to take care of the companies coming back to usa will the strong economy hurt democrats this fall heading towards the mid-terms elections. with us is one up for re-election as they are in the house. congressman scott i won't talk about the pot holes. >> we will fix them. >> we can have that discussion laerts does the good economy work against the democrats getting into office this time around. >> i'll speak for me i'm a pro-growth democrat got the support of the u.s. chamber of congress i'm for lower taxes and less regulation. i'm all in on making sure we have the strong economy. there is lots to do. in new jersey when what we hear from businesses about tariffs i have a lot of panicked ceos calling me saying war we going to do who who here

it's a tax on people because to fast it on the consumer and they are worried about jobs farmers are worried. and the salt lol tax reduction they haven't felt it but we know property values are down and we know there is pressure and people are panicked about this and losing jobs already because of it. >> is there any solution there on the state and local tax deduction that can you see. >> a work around. >> i've been on the show talking about in which i think is critical and we have introduced and passed in new jersey a charitable tax deduction where towns can set up the funds, charitable funds for law enforcement, parks you can give a contribution to the town your town can -- it's a tax deduct o deductionable contribution take it federally go around the amt. they can give it to you as a deduction on the property taxes the town can in new jersey up to 9% s in a law we signed in in the state of course we have a big

fight. >> there is a fight in the court. >> totally but here is the problem and all the analysis shows including the top legal scholars 33 other states mostly red have been utilizing the provision for decades now. so treasure is going to fight it it's going to court. i talked to them about it already. and we are prepared to fight jersey phyllo style and win this. >> you're up for election again and of course looking for support from anywhere and anyone in the district you can get it from understand a lot of businesses and organizations that previously leaned right, red moving towards democrats and some in your case towards your direction. >> primarily the middle. >> yes. >> what's. >> the pro business democrats. >> what's going on there what does that mean. >> one of the things i've been -- one of the reasons i'ms focused on fiscal responsibility and make sure we do everything possible for job growth and wage growth is i think there is a huge opportunity for democrats like me all across the country when we win the house it's going to be through districts like mine cent rift districts people like me willing to work with

democrats and republicans. i had a republican colleague in the district last week talking about anti-terror legislation we are focused on opinion injury the future of the party is in the middle willing to work with both sides. >> this is not to ignore the extremes have been built on both sides, that exist to a great degree in this country right now. i mean. >> of course it makes for great -- great cable tv and a lot of noise. >> and goes to the polls at the same time. so you guys are the moderates on both sides republican and democrat there is almost a vacuum there for you guys. >> not for tv of course on cable news and social media. but actually looking at the numbers where the majority of the country is in the middle slightly less slightly right and i believe that's where the future is it's not as excited exciting i get it people don't go rally and protest around working together and getting things done on infrastructure and lowering taxes >> do they vote. >> they vote i think in this district what i'm seeing is the people coming

up to me they talk about the fact that i could kmar the problem solvers caucus and we sit around the table and talk to each other and find solutions maybe 80% but not insist on everything i don't believe either party skoeds from the extremes and and i believe the future comes through the middle. >> looking for 2020 who is the moderate comingout of your party and address that large cohort of people you were talking about? because the people that we hear about as the -- as the putative front runners, the elizabeth warrens, bernie sanders and others don't come from that. >> a lot of people are playing to the base right now and playing for the primary. we will see a lot of people are running or think bag it. and i'm eager to hear from them. we'll see what happens in the end. michael bloomberg was in the office in d.c. and met with our caucus a few weeks ago and we really believe there is a space in the middle for candidates and i think we'll see in the months ahead but i'm focused on winning in

2018 and getting the house become right now and that's where my heart is. >> how many hours a day do you spend on the phone or in other things that are directly related to the fund raising. >> how many hours a day too many hours a day. >> average. >> it varies probably on the phone two hours a day. >> two hours a day. >> just you will a all the time. >> you're not alone either. >> no, no shall does it. you know and one of the things i love to see change out of the supreme court is the fact like allowing us not it to do that and we all want campaign finance reform process i don't talk to a member saying i can't stand having to do this it means you are up 20 hours a day doing the other stuff. process you work hard. the system is what it is right now. until we figure out the legislation and support to make sure we get around having to do that then we are stuck with the system we've got. >> at the extremes, immigration and tariffs and trade -- all the issues get all the attention what is the platform you guys can work on in the middle there that's getting you elected or

re-elected >> i'll tell what you i talk about. a lot of my -- a lot of people running pro business moderates running i talk to them all the time we talk about pro-growth, making sure there is job training for the future in the tech world i came from microsoft making sure the jobs of the future people have the skills that they need things where the community colleges and schools are prepared and public and priefrt work to get that done. we talk about lower taxes making sure we have -- key rowe we keep thing affordable in for people in new jersey keeping things affordable dealing with s.a.l.t. and make sure we have a place that has infrastructure and people want, trains, the streets being paved and actually the potholes you are talking about. no one wants to deal with that they want to get to work and home to families and they want us to work together the more we talk about -- i'm telling i hear this all the time from candidates the people that there are people who don't want to go to washington to scream but to solve problems is what people really want to hear at then of thedy.

i know it don't sell cable news the same way. >> don't pickenous. >> it's not as sexy. but that's what people. >> sexy center dpl. >> democratic congressman scott john heimer from new jersey thank you. >> massive year to date gits, sc zillow and etsy. all out with injuries. thhe westbound 2.0 dominance continue trading nation is next i just switched to geico and got more. more? got a company i can trust. that's a heck of a lot more. over 75 years of great savings and service. you can't argue with more. why would ya? geico. expect great savings and a whole lot more.

it's time for trading nation look at the second generation of internet stenographs etsy, twilio and zillow rallying ahead of earnings after the bell on top of massive gains seen this year. can their run continue david sea berg is cowen and chanta and which of those we mentioned do you like most or least. >> i like them all i think the business models are solid. going into earnings twilio is the most crowdle pl zillow is set up well from an expectations perspective. etsy is fine as well showing

competence last quarter after the report and talked about a price hike from the commission perspective. they talked about a monthly subscription fee they were charging from my perspective that's a real confident play from their perspective. i think it's a nichy sort of play that can continue to work. i'm confident there. after that i follow with zillow and say that their business model is strong. it's interesting to hear what they say about the capital raze. but ultimately all three are solid long-term plays. jeana david likes them all how does it look. >> the biggest challenge for the space is going to be valuations. if you looks at etsy it's 60 times forward multiples zillow at 80 times forward multiples and zillow yet to make earnings. you know, this is going to be a challenge as the market starts to consolidate from growth and towards value. we have seen great stimulus

beauyed spending and put that spending forward in the first part of the year i think that while i agree that each of the individual companies has interesting names and in the long-term they are going to be -- neal be very interesting businesses, the short-term right now i think is fairly bearish because they have valuation working against them. >> all right, folks thank you very much. david, gina we appreciate it for more trading nation head to the website. follow us on twitter at trading nation. next on power lunch a major donor and ceo is not bullish on the president's tariffs owe tariff tactics he tells us why and what it means for his industry when we return in two minutes. >> and now the trade nation stats of the day and a word from our sponsor. >> volatile markets are god for long-term investor to review the asset allocation plans on core holdings if you are overly concentrated in a specific stock or sector

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welcome back to power lunch. modest gains for the major averages opinion the nasdaq and the russell have been playing catch-up to the other major

averages but the dow and s&p after three or four up weeks are starting positive once again. still a lot of earnings out there today. am i going to sue or doing this? oil stocks there we are higher as crude climbs 1%. the oil to etf, the xop on pace for the best day since june 2nd. chesapeake newfield and baker hues leading the name for me names leading the which. apple arthrowe go. med tronic norfolk southern and now to sue for the news yupt. >> here's what's happening in a speech broadcast live on state tv iranian president hassan rouhani says iran could hold talks but only if washington proved trustworthiness after the u.s. recombosed sanctions on the country. he added that the call for domestic talks is only for domestic consumption in the u.s. and create chaos in iran

the party of pakistan's contradict star turned politician imran kahn dominating him for the post of the prime minister he face as vote in parliament in which he has to defeat a rival candidate fieldland by the opposition. more than 200 firefighters are working to out oh a fire in southwest pain spp 12 fire trucks with 1,000 gallons of water each attempting to bring the blaze under control. weather conditions make it difficult to fight the flames. and a canadian van driver has been fired after splashing pedestrians. cash cam video from another vehicle caught the driver in the act. that went viral being viewed more than 2.4 million times by this morning man. that's the news update this hour can you even imagine >> yeah it stinks when you get drenched with water. >> it does. >> i love driving through puddles but i don't go out of my way to get people.

>> make sure i'm out of your way. >> that's just too precious. >> oh. >> and an umbrella, come on. >> stop, bill. >> that's great stuff. >> all right thanks, sue. >> you got it. >> all right stay dry. isle oil market closing for the day. jackie danglis standing by. >> good afternoon wsh tyler it's hard to come after the video but we are watching oil prices lifting today. after reports that the soudys were being cautious on up rampingout put and the production unexpected fell in month ofall. the agreement met with some of the production back online to make up for short falls elsewhere but the concern was that could tip the scale and push prices down it looks like the saudis monitoring the market and spli demand balance as welling a the iran sanctions come online oo. how it plays out now no with unis sure but they don't want to rock the boat. about a 1% gain today.

>> thank you jackie. that's a nice setup with u.s. sanctions on iran going back into effect on tuesday morning what will tensions mean for the price of crude joining is ut stand every hart for the oil and gas firm can't ari. jackie ran. >> thank you for having me. >> absolutely. we have some things bearish foshag the price of oil when it comes to things like production cuts that were agreed to by opec in late june but bullish for price of oil with the renewed sanctions or the reignited sanctions against iran obviously you run the oil services company process what do you think happens with the price of oil and how could it benefit you potentially. >> sure, i think we are exiting oil around $100 a barrel wti by the end of the year i think there is bullish indicators i disagree a little bit with what the idea that the saudis were being cautious. i think they overstated thement of a excess production they had. they said they were ramping up

production both back channel with the u.s. and publicly and what you saw is the production from june to july fall about 200,000 barrels a day. so i think that they're struggling to ramp up production as much as they promised i think you have to overlay that with pipeline take away capacity problems in the permean liiaen then falling production in venezuela and falling prox in okanu la and synchronized world growth. i think we are in for higher prices at the end of the year. >> how does iran play into that doesn't that push prices higher if there are sanctions on the exports from iran oil. >> sure wsh iran exports between 2.4 and 2.7 million billers barrels a day of oil with the sanctions the market is expecting about a million to 1.5 million barrels a day to be taken off the market that further crimps supply and that's leading to more bullish pressure i think a lot of people -- oolts of people expected the u.s. to issue a bunch of waivers

and the rhetoric out of the trump administration via the tweets and the other people in the cabinet, i think it just points to it going in the opposite direction i think we have really a recipe for opec not being able to supply as much as we thought pressury supply in iran due to sanctions, pressure from venezuelan a a good economy. >> i'm still trying to wrap my head around. you think $100 on wti the end of the yooer. 50% increase from where we are right now. >> we should be about $70 a barrel wti right now shubd about a 30% increase. >> what i am getting at you name all the fundamentals pushing to $100 why isn't is the market there if we know about the fundamentals what's the catalyst moving that that much higher from here. >> i think there is speculation about what's happening with iran is there a meeting, a deal is the u.s. going to issue

waivers? and i think that as that plays out i think you'll see -- you'll see the administration seems to be moving towards a mar hard line direction i also think venezuela is a big unknown. two years ago venisonle and production was 2.2 million barrels a day. right now it's 1.4 and ends around 1 million. if you think about the economic growth to adding to demand demand this year and all the supply constraints and then you have saudi arabia. sputing to get to supply june over july assism promised you have a recipe for a higher oil rice. >> dan, very quickly if we can can we know you are a republican donor, largely support the republican party but not big fan of tariffs at all. what does that mean for where you ut put the money are you not putting it with the republican party as long as the larger group supports this tariff out of the administration. >> no i definitely support the administration in general and support the republican party and i think we have the best

ideas for economic growth and national security. and education policy moving forward. i do think that where trump is on trade is a little bit dicey for the macroeconomy in the short-term and our industry. we have to compete against opec. against west africa. apartment our company we have to raise prices a 25% tariff may be in a land cost increase of high 20s or low 40s for us as a business we have to price those -- mover those price increases to the customers. i think it impacts the economy in the short-term but courageous for trump to do something that obama or george w. bush didn't really handle which is china and some of the other countries be hypocrites on trade. >> dan every hart appreciate your thoughts. >> thank you. >> on the provides of oil and how tariffs play into everything as well thank you. >> giving your kids that talk. when should you had do it? how should you do it we will tell you when we come back you always pay your insurance on time.

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surveys find that millennial parents are likely to talk about money with the kids at an earlier age. what advice do you give and and let's bring in heather and talk about in why do you think millennial parents are children are more inclined to have the money talk sooner. >> we hear from parents of all generations. they wish they learned lessons around financial advice, saving and investing at younger ages. what we think we see with millennial parents is they are paying the lessons forward as a result we see 40% of millennial parents plan to talk to children about the importance of saving and investing prior to the child's 12th birthday. significantly higher than we saw of boomer parents where just 20% spoke to the children about topics as eat similarly young ages. >> do we know they are following through on the intention and

doing it >> we don't know for sure. but we think given how passionate they were when we hear from parents that they wish they had lessons at younger ages we think they are paying it forward. 50% of american women and a percentage of american men wish they heard about the retirement savings and the 401(k) savings in ten years we think that shapes how and when they approach the conversations with in re own children. >> i guess you shouldn't be so surprised by this. but mothers are more inclined to initiate the conversation than fathers. >> really? >> even though fathers say they are the ones with the primary decision makers in the house because of course us men we know everything that's why >> that's right. across the board we hear from parents of every generation, they believe this conversation needs to start at home and the reason that is that americans tell us they identify the primary resources for teaching children about saving and investing to be parents,

teachers and financial advisers. we know that's problematic though because many schools don't include financial literacy as part of the curriculum and many americans don't have financial advisers parents take it on themselves. and when they have this conversation as you said more often than not this is a topic where mom may know best. mothers are more frequently having the conversations with in re children. everything from retirement savings to that first credit card now, the two areas where fathers are engaging with the children as much as mothers are investing and buying that first car. >> right i have two kids in their mid-to late 20s i know one of enemy is watching right now. she is going to kill me for this but they don't listen to me or their mother on stuff like this. but they watch what we do. isn't the better which to teach kids about money, is your own practices rather than trying to bet enemy over the head with saving and investing and all that stuff. >> i think that's right. that's had what we heard from parents when we asked what are

the topics you are trying to get across to the children and what are the effective conversation starters and when we engage with enemy on that topic what came to the top of the list was really living within your means. and when you think about it that's something really modelled with parents where most parents start the conversation with their children some of the other conversations. >> you need to teach them i think -- i have a 12-year-old son. you need to team them money doesn't grow on trees. you want that kobe bryant jersey you have to mow lawns to get it i don't meet to get personal but do you have kids and have you had the talk with them. >> that's right. we have two children three and six. >> a little early. >> on the young side a little early but we absolutely will have the talk more often than not we find parents start at younger ages. peskly around the basics of saving and vefrg in the values around that. >> congratulations with your young process. begin with bitcoin start with the bitcoin talk. heather lord from capital graup.

thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> very interesting. i wardson about the minimal yanls going through the financial crisis how that impacts. facebook wants to pr your bank what it means for privacy. we have the latest apple, facebook and spotify. removing alex jones, infowars from the platform. more on that story up next -here comes the rain. [ horn honking ] [ engine revving ] what's that, girl? [ engine revving ] flo needs help?! [ engine revving ] take me to her! ♪ coming, flo! why aren't we taking roads?! flo. [ horn honking ] -oh. you made it. do you have change for a dollar? -this was the emergency? [ engine revving ] yes, i was busy! -24-hour roadside assistance. from america's number-one motorcycle insurer.

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welcome back to poufr lunch. everybody. facebook looking to team up with your bank. why? julia boorstin live in l.a. with the answers. julia. >> well, tyler is in talks with bank was partnerships to have consumer access to county information and customers service through the messenger ach. facebook telling me they've toukd to jp morgan chase wells fargo and others about access to information for consumers not for add targeten or data mining. they have similar operations in talks with paypal. they imimply incorrectly we are

actively asking for financial transaction data this is not true like many online companies with commerce businesses we partner with banks and credit card companies to offer services like customer account or account management the question is whether they will overcome concerns about security a source tells us that bank of america is not considering any sort of social media partnership and jp morgan says that it is not sharing any of its customer's off platform transaction data and not allowing any person to person payments through messenger it does allow facebook to focus on this kind of information consumers want frequently to make money off of facebook's 1.3 billion users. >> julia, thank you very much. sticking with facebook it is one of many companies today including apple, spotify and youtube limiting info wars

this is part of a larger issue in technology, but is this form of self-regulation a smart move or are they headed down a slippery slope joining us now to talk about it he's a professor at the nyu school of business thanks for joining us. there's so many directions we could go here, but, tony, do you think we're heading to a portion now where we're going to see more self-regulation by these tech companies here in. >> these companies are under a great deal of pressure to police the content that appears on their sites and services it's been months now since wave heard from lawmakers on capitol hill and others had to do something about info wars. alex jones has said controversial things about women and immigrants and other claims about minorities but the question here isn't just

whether companies are going to begin to regulate themselves more it's what lawmakers might do in response there's been this push on capitol hill to change the law and the way they moderate their platforms. >> to this point, there have been critics of facebook saying they have been muting conservative voices by removing some of the pages that they have done again, back to the self-regulation question and whether they're getting themselves into deeper waters than they anticipate especially politically here >> i think most conservatives would not want to be associated with this type of content in anyway the bottom line is tobacco companies were never able to make the connection between tobacco and cancer the nra has trouble connecting assault rifle sales and mass shooting of kids and social media platforms and big tech in general is going to

have trouble connecting the dots between unfettered growth and negative content this is unfolding at the perfect crisis management crisis for apple and the perfect case management study on not what to do with facebook, and facebook was sort of shamed into this today. >> what about twitter? i believe twitter is maybe one of the only platforms standing, unless i'm wrong, in the last two hours still supporting info wars and alex jones at least offering him a platform for him to speak and share what he's saying is that going to be a problem for twitter, if you're the last man standing in allowing a speech like this >> as far as i know info wars is still above.

even pinterest has taken action. info wars is still available on the web. that's one of the things these companies have to combat is that you might take them off one platform but they're more likely to spring up elsewhere. and jack dorsey in particular is likely to face more scrutiny from those on capitol hill and elsewhere who just think it's been unfair. so it's really a catch-22 for some of these companies. sometimes when they go too far they get hit from lawmakers. >> scott, how would you write a law that would address this and what would you do? >> the law is already on the books. they should be subject of the same scrutiny that cnbc is subject to if your platform had been weaponized by the intelligence arm of the foreign government we'd no longer be on this

program. but for some reason we decided tech companies aren't subject to the fraction of the scrut an or legal liability for that matter, >> what does that mean when it comes to regulation if facebook is really a utility? >> more power to them. utilities are regulated. facebook has warmly embraced the margins, the influence and the celebrity of a media company that seems alulergic to responsibility we have an individual who flaukd out of college at 33 and can never be fired, what can go wrong? >> we can go on all day, but we must stop. and check please is next

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mourning the passing of a legendry chef today joel robuchon he was out on the box thinker in french cooking which you know is very scripted. so his restaurants around the

world had more michelin stars than anybody, 32 michelin stars. >> who was the other great chef who died in the last year? >> this is two of them now the thing he was best known for was his mashed potatoes. it was apparently to die for >> so speak of food, wal-mart is also offering meal kits, a partnership they'll be offering on their marketplace orb that means on their website and offering meal kits like we need another meal kit offer some have suggested maybe wal-mart should buy blue apron if they reel want to get in, a suggestion from some >> where was this in canada somewhere? >> look out. this guy got fired for --

>> finding the puddles >> i love to do this i love to drive through puddles. i don't do it where people are in the way oops, i didn't see you there >> thanks for watching power lunch, everybody i'm wilfred frost at the noouvg stock exchange. goldman sachs these the trillion dollar figure investors should be focused on has nothing to do with apple new drama in the trade war saga as president trump vows to stay the course on tariffs and now auto tariffs on cars made in canada could be play illume nuhitting an all-time high