it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. it's 12:00 noon northbound turkey here are the five important things to know turkey remains in focus. currency hitting another all-time low will this set off a global currency contagion global stock markets feeling the impact right across your screens this morning many asian markets are tumbling. new details emerging on the stolen airplane that was crashed outside of seattle over the weekend. tesla, are they one step closer to being taken private conflicting reports that have investors confused bayer having the worst time

in a decade. nearly 300 million in damages for a man who says he got cancer from a product that is probably in your garage it is monday, august 13th as worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪ good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you're watching, i'm brian sullivan it's a worldwide kind of morning. global news set to hit your money and your stocks here at home stock futures are down right now. not considerably so but we're seeing the dow futures offered 48 points. remember on friday the selling accelerated throughout the morning. we're just getting started in the u.s. nasdaq, futures all down the markets breaking many win streaks last friday as the turkish currency continued to slide. turkey, it's not just about

them the economy the 17th largest in the world. the issue is that much of the debt is held in turkey in currencies other than it own lira so as the lira drops, it is much more expensive to pay back that debt that is why we're seeing shares of big global banks like paribas and others take a hit. the turkish lira a new low today. down 7% on lira to the dollar. again, new all-time lows that's hitting turkish stocks as well the turkish etf, one of the biggest here, the t.u.r. is the ticker it is lower again. it's lost half the value this year and down 11% in extended hours trading. this is the ishares -- this is the u.s. etf that mirrors it in a way. down another 11% watch this space all right. there is your global market setup. let's get to the news and what turkey is trying to do to stop the slide and actions that they are taking today

willem frost is there. you have more what they're trying to do so far unsuccessfully to stop the slide. >> that's right, brian, we heard in an interview, the son-in-law of president erdogan he would be unveiling plans this morning involving the state institutions trying to combat this currency crisis what we've had is a small amount -- trying to limit transactions and from the central bank saying they will provide as much liquidity for the banks in turkey as he need that's going to be key, of course, as the banks with the large amounts of dollar and euro denominated reserves that you've been talking about that. president erdogan over the weekend carrying out a series of rallies across the country, talking about this as an economic war the lira was just a fluctuation, a storm in a teacup.

blaming the united states and other external actors for this one of the big -- when it comes to the benchmark, they've decided not to increase the rate that was sri lanka something a lot of analysts said was a mistake. they're calling for -- trying to deal with this runaway inflation, just under 16%. mr. erdogan made it very clear, he's opposed to interest rate increases at all costs big, big questions remain about the independence of central bank, whether they will be able to take action unilaterally and get approval from the president after he strengthened his grip following the recent election, brian. >> is there a feeling on the ground, willem that this is an economic crisis or simply more of a currency crisis and/or attack on that currency? >> one of the big questions is about what will happen to this huge number of foreign deposits, almost half of all turkish bank deposits held in nonlira foreign

currency people concerned that the government could step in they said they will not do that. something i've spoken to have been concerned about in terms of rising costs for businesses, it's a huge challenge for servicing some of their debt a lot of that held in foreign currency people saying they don't see this is something caused by the united states. they don't believe in this national rhetoric from president erdogan. not trying to prop up the currencies as he's urged them to do, brian. >> he's attacking the united states and doesn't sound like many are buying into it. willem marx we'll see you all day long thank you very much. let's get deeper with the financial times. eye la, what can we expect out of the administration? i know the finance minister is expected to unveil a plan today. when do we expect to hear more details of the next round much action bit turkish government? >> we're already seeing initial stats. the bank has reduced a reserve

requirement ratios liquidity in the market. that seems to be having, albeit quite limited because of the selldown for the day we're not sure what else to expect they haven't announced what other steps might be in the plan investors are still, i think, focused on the prospects of an interest rate hike despite the lack of movement on that front over the last week or two. >> as i understand it, ayala, here is the issue. many of the foreign investors would like to see an interest rate increase, but president erdogan effectively saying if we raise rates, it's a tax on poor. that's what they want us to do we're not going to do it. >> that's right. he did sort of double down on his stance, which he's made quite clear over the last several years. he sees interest rates as quo quote-unquote, the mother and

father of all evil he wanted to keep credit cheap in turk toy propel the record levels of growth it doesn't seem like he's ready to step back from there. on the other hand, there has been some talks from the finance minister that the central bank remains independent, that it is allowed to move when it sees that it needs to for price stability. there is perhaps -- the door hasn't been completely shut perhaps on interest rates. but it's a difficult step for the central bank to take at this time. >> we know that erdogan has been aggressive going after people he views as threats to the administration or threats to the turkish state. i understand also by your reporting and others that turkey is now opening investigations into people and even shutting down twitter accounts. do we know who they're looking at are they looking at hedge fund managers or is it more of a political motive >> we don't know, actually, who they're targeting. it could be investors. it could be regular citizens

concerned about the state of their bank accounts and the value of their lira holdings or their 4x holdings. we don't actually know i see it as part of a multiprong -- with the bank interventions today and to make it clear to turkish citizens and others, it doesn't want to see speculative reports being made they very much cast this in terms of a nationalist quest this is an attack, they're saying, this is an economic war from abroad. so they want turks to unite. they want turks to rally around their currency, rally around the economy and the government >> ayala jean yakly of the financial times. making it crystal clear for us thank you. let's drill down on the drop of the turkish lira. why we care and what the contagion risk may be. i'm joined by a guest now.

boris shall at one point we saw the south african rand fall more than 10% the indian rupee down. here's my question is this the 1997 crisis all over again which infected other parts of the world and other asset classes or do you believe this is a turkey only problem right now? >> so a lot of analysts have made that leap i'm not ready to make that leap yet. i'm telling you, it could become a much worse crisis the longer it festers remember, all of these countries inevitably have their currencies weaken the they're also big buyers of oil that's the key thing here. the crisis can get exacerbated if the price of oil goes up. our tensions with iran force oil price toss go up above $70 a barrel, you have a movement of a lower currency in the e.m., the

rup yee getting hurt by high oil prices that's the key thing here. then you could have a very, very serious crisis, yes. we're not there yet, but the components are setting up to sbo a perfect storm. >> i loved how you laid it out there. if you go back to other crises, i'm knot saying we do yet, oil plays a massive role it's an equalizer, a great tax on everybody from the rich down to the poor because they pay the same price as most oil is priced in u.s. dollars, it just makes it almost impossibly more expensive for people to get around that's why currency crises end up as some form of political cry st sis. do you believe there's a political crisis in turkey now >> there no doubt is the problem with turkey, of course, they're trying to create a political solution to an economic problem

that's why the speculators are just waiting right now the currency market is wafting to see what they do next erdogan doesn't want to raise rates, which is the natural course of action even if they do raise rates and dollar turkey goes above 7 that's a death nell for them the talk in the fx market right now is if it goes above 7, pretty much the turkish banks are insolvent. if it gets broken, it will be a big contagion effect much more of a risk off lows in the next couple of days. this is the level everybody is watching. >> we've flipped it. that was lira. the one we showed our -- lira to dollars. you want to watch 7 to 1 do you think we will get there is that sort of the -- pardon the pun, the voss ferrous strait of where we need to be for the currency to hold

>> the other thing that could be a huge policy area, i'm not certain that it may not go this way, he could seize all of the euro denominated assets in turkish banks and convert them forcibly as an act of nationalism that would really for sure push turkey above 7 and create a much worse crisis my point is, what you're seeing is very bad reactive policy actions by him as a strong man, i think for the first time in his life, he does not understand that no bull any the world has ever won against the currency market. the currency market destroyed all political bullies ever i think he doesn't understand that this is the one match he can't win. >> currency crises have brought down some of the world's biggest and oldest banks here's looking at a bank in the 1990s. don't forget that the finance minister of turkey, this is no knock on his credibility bell rat alibi rack.

is erdogan's son-in-law. it's not impossible to see that the central bank is not independent. they're going to do the bidding ultimately of the president. they're not going to be like our fed which ostensibly is independent. i know a lot of people disagree with that sentiment. they're going to do the best for the currency and monetary policy we can't guarantee that from turkey, can we >> absolutely not. the policy is always -- encapsulated in one man. it's a strong man country. you're seeing the end result of that is a bad economic outcome investors are losing faith this is triggered by the fact he was elected again and started to curtail all sorts of freedoms in turkey now you have a full-on capital flight if he does assert capital controls, that's going to push everything over the edge >> india down, indonesia down. south africa down from a currency perspective boris, thank you very much see you soon outside of turkey and in

corporate news, shares of german company bayer having the worst day in nearly a decade this after a california jury oshd the monsanto unit to pay $289 million to a man who claims he got terminal cancer after using the weed killer roundup. he was seeking $412 million in damages. he was awarded $339 million for his actual losses with a $250 million punitive damages fine on monsanto after finding it liable for design defect and failing to warn the risks of roundup. monsanto will appeal the decision. elliott management is making a big bet on nielsen the "wall street journal" says that the investors accumulated an 8% stake in the ratings company. shares of nielsen are higher in early trade. about 5% in holland. we are just getting started

on a busy worldwide exchange the president taking aim at one of the most iconic brands. the battle between trump and harley a big week ahead for tesla the company's board meeting to discuss elon musk's pitch to take the automaker private more on the details and conflicting stories on tesla when we roll on tethafr is ok, show me what you got.

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president trump backing a big boycott of one of the most iconic brands. landon dowdy joining us. we know you're not 100%. >> i'm going to push through here's the latest happening. president trump is supporting a boycott of harley davidson the latest shot in the dispute between the president and the motorcycle maker over u.s. steel tariffs. harley announced a plan to shift production for the european union outside of the u.s. to avoid tariffs imposed by the eu in retaliation for trump's -- the president criticized harley and threatening to lure foreign competition to the u.s president trump saying many harley davidson owners plan to boycott the company if manufacturing moves overseas great. most other companies are coming in our direction, including harley competitors a really bad move. the u.s. will have a level playing field or better.

harley davidson declined to comment on trump's remarks the president with met supporters and members of a group called bikers for trump on saturday at a golf resort in bedminster, new jersey they back the agenda of the trump administration harley davidson stocks are down 15% just this year obviously, hot story the biggest misconception, they think all of the production is being moved outside the u.s. that's not the case. this could cost them 100 million dollars. >> this is a company the president touted president of the company, had him at the white house really flipped on harley. >> sluggish sales in the u.s europe is the second biggest market bringing competition over here, honda, yamaha, ducati. >> landon dowdy, see you in a bit. tesla, pizza and pharmaceuticals. first to tesla you might have heard about this company. the company and ceo elon musk hit by two shareholders lawsuits

on friday. they accuse them of fraudulently scheme to go squeeze short sellers, including through musk's plan to allegedly take the company private. tesla hasn't commented separately on that topic, there are conflicting reports on whether the saudis will help with any kind of buyout. on one hand, bloomberg reporting that the public investment fund is interested in being part of any investment group that would emerge to take the company private. remember, the pif, as it is known already owns a stake reuters says that the fund has not shown any interest in financing a buyout tess ha shares up .4% this morning as investors dissect that tug of war. papa john's will cut royalties and fees that it charges the franchisees. this comes days after same store sales fell more than 10% in july and the fallout of the founder papa john's stock is up about 2%

right now. roach says the breakthrough strategy to use zoe layer to treat severe food allergies. breakthrough status is a process designed to expedite the development and review of drugs. roche is off half a percent despite that news. housing market check and wow what a pga championship. it is in the books there is sure to be a lot of talk about tiger woods today if you missed it, we'll show you the highlights stick around olay ultra moisture body wash

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to find the best flight for me. so i'm more than confident. how's your family? kayak. search one and done. welcome back an update on the financial story of the day, maybe of the week and who knows, of the year the u.s. dollar to the turkish lira if you're not following along, turkey is in the middle of a currency crisis. we're seeing a bit of a rebound in the lira today. up just under 7% to 6.85 per u.s. dollar. boris schlossberg told you, 7 to 1. we have seen the turkish stock market in dollar terms collapse back to financial crisis woes lately this is going to end up as a turkey only one or a global contagion one. remember in 1997, the thai bot

nobody watched at first because it was thailand. set off a global crisis for the better part of a year. something to watch with turkey. with the intersection of business and politics, president trump -- first lady tweeting, quote, potus and i enjoyed dinner with tim cook last night. bigger investments in the usa which positively impact our economy. end quote. let's look at the other top stories, including the latest on the bizarre airplane theft story out of seattle philip mena in new york with this. >> brian, good morning there are lingering questions this morning after a horizon air employees was able to steal and crash an empty passenger plane from the seattle tacoma airport. they believe richard russell took the passenger plane on a bizarre be joyride before

slamming it into the ground. china, this massive sinkhole opened up after heavy rainfall it swallowed two cars and good samaritans rushed to prevent it from taking a third. you can see the white car teetering on the edge of the 300 square foot wide sinkhole. dozens of bystanders attached a rope to the front of the vehicle to reel it in back to safety. close call for a new jersey bride on her wedding day her celebration came to a halt when the wedding party got caught in a flood over the weekend. the police department quickly coming to the rescue, helping them out of car and through their sunroof to safety. brian, back to you >> i thought it was just me getting to be an old man get off my lawn kind of stuff, philip it's rained 9 of 12 summer weekends and we're 6 to 8 inches above the mean in rain california needs the rain. start a twitter campaign, go west let's get -- new jersey is full. full of people, full of water. >> i'm down for that hash tag,

brian. >> go west, yuoung rain. weighing the risks it's not just turkey we'll show you a special look at how other global markets are eating investor money lately later, keep calm and rock on, mate 457 guitarists jamming into the record books we'll have a lighthearted oklo at that as worldwide exchange rolls on we're putting ai into everything, and everything into the cloud. it's all so... smart. but how do you work with it? ask this farmer. he's using satellite data to help increase crop yields. that's smart for the food we eat. at this port, supply chains are becoming more transparent with blockchain. that's smart for millions of shipments. in this lab, researchers are working with watson to help them find new treatments. that's smart for medicine. at this bank, the world's most encrypted mainframe

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crisis in turkey sparking contagion fears we have the latest global hotspots. it's not just turkey the five other big global market that you need to be paying attention to that are all now in bear markets shares of one of the world's biggest companies tumbling after a court says a product you probably own can cause cancer and awards a man $300 million. the full details as worldwide exchange rolls on right now. welcome back good monday morning. thank you for being with us on cnbc i'm brian sullivan futures are down not considerably not a big drop in the dow, s&p and nasdaq futures but they are in red as well. dow futures down 46 points right now. all eyes and ears and everything has been on turkey over the weekend. the currency there collapsing over the last number of days

the stock market going back to financial crisis lows. we're seeing the turkey, istanbul 100 ostensibly. you're going to hear about going forward, down another 4% the president coming out in a series of fiery speeches over the weekend but erdogan's passion not enough to get buyers to come back into that market again. that is priced in lira we'll show you the difference as well coming up when you price it in u.s. dollars. turkey is the big financial story, again let's recap the top stories in general as part of the jute u. executive summary. shares in bayer, the worst in a decade this after a california jury ordered monsanto to play nearly $300 million to a man who claims he got terminal cancer from using the weed killer roundup. monsanto will appeal the decision. nielsen making a big -- "wall street journal" reporting that they've recorded an 8%

stake in the company elliott wants -- it's up in trading in the netherlands. president trump showing support for boycott against harley davidson. the president tweeting over the weekend, quote, many harley davidson owners plan to boycott the company's manufacturing goes overseas great. trump's comments after the president hosted bikers for trump at his golf club in bedminster, new jersey over the weekend. let get a look at stocks around the world asian markets have been hit hard the hang seng in hong kong down 1.5% the shanghai composite, one of the weakest in the world this year, down the least down about .3 of 1%. red on the board in europe as well really the bank stocks are what you need to watch. turkey's currency crisis is not just limited to that country the reason that you care, even if you don't own turk irk stocks, is that much of the deficit in priced in currencies

other than the lira. as the currency falls, it makes it more expensive to pay back all the loans to the banks that are priced in other currency bnp paribas and others have seen the stocks hit in the last number of days those are stocks that we are certainly watching we're watching other markets as well overseas if you're not paying attention, you should be. there are five major global markets that have tumbled into or are near a bear market, which is down 20% from it highs. look at this the chinese nasdaq, if you will, the shenzhen index down 25% from its 52-week high the argentinean -- down 23%. the shanghai composite in china, down 22% turkey, we just mentioned it, down over 21%. the russian rsx close, not quite into but close to a bear market. down nearly 19% from its 52-week highs. lets bring in tim seymour a cnbc

contributor as well. this is your -- >> good morning. >> good morning. this is your space, buddy. many of those markets had been down big before. the turkey news started to ratchet up do you think this provides them another leg down >> i think so, brian the etf that tracks the emerging markets, msci, it's going to open at the lows of where we were a few weeks ago on a relative basis to the s&p a hot of people look at emerging markets and on the last 12 to 18 months look back, actually it had been a pretty good run a lot of the globals, synchronized stories getting priced in. the reality is, since april and a lot of this has been the trade dynamic, it's been currency concerns, it's been some of the growth concerns and then there's been four or five hotspots around the em world that have been tough places to be investing in i would say idiosyncratic

political dynamics and economic dynamics in those places, massive under performance since april 1. you've underperformed by 22% i tracked the spy against the eem. which is a simple ratio. it tells you how em is doing versus the u.s we are back to where we were in the first quarter of 2016 when the world was in a scary place oil was getting near lows in 26 bucks. it's a very challenging time for emerging it's not going to get easier as you pointed out earlier in the show, the currencies around the world that are the current account concern countries, the south africas of the world, even brazil falls under pressure here and has been even though they have their own political dynamics at work yeah no question for em investors right now. it's been as difficult of a period and intense of a period as i've seen in doing this in 20 years. >> we saw earlier today, the south african rand fell 10%. the indian rupee

all dropping 1 or 2% not huge moves but things begin somewhere. do you believe that turkey will spark a bigger contagion or can it be contained? >> well, turkey's relationship with the european banks is something you've talked about, we've talked about that's where we're concerned obviously, we're watching italian btp yields this morning and what's going on with their ten-year it's performing significantly better this morning. i think the contagion to europe, even the russia relationship with turkey is something to watch. i think that's where you have the correlations the correlation between the chinese stocks and turkish stocks have actually been very high i would argue they're not correlated at all. if you look at the wins -- you're significantly exposed to asia asia dynamics are very different. i would rather be watching what's going on with the chinese data the last month. last night we had a new loans figure out i think on some level it's a

mitigating factor that they've tightened the monetary policy. fiscal policy in asia, china will be doing things to become more accommodating it's going to a heave yat some of the tension -- alleviate some of the tension there how assets flow in emerging markets, people sell first and ask questions later. >> the thing about greece, if we take it about a decade to the greek crisis, it was never really about greece. it was about debt. it was about global banking. it was about the european central bank and the money that was owed across the spectrum turkey's current account deficit, very, very high about half of it allegedly is priced in currencies outside of their lira, which makes it a lot more expensive tell our viewers and listeners, imagine if you had $10,000 on a car loan in a certain currency and some of that currency lost half the value, all of a sudden in a rough way, you have to pay $15,000 back on that $10,000 car. you're thinking i've done nothing. why should i pay that loan back?

do you think this will become a banking crisis >> well, the irony is you talked about the auto market in turkey is one of the strongest industrial parts of their economy. ouf got a couple great exporters that i think are very strong players in the global kind of auto export chain. but the reality is, what's happening in turkey right now is something that is a crisis of confidence the central bank independence is something we want to see this is historically been a very strong technocrat i can central bank look, i've invested in turkey for a long time. it's a remarkable place. >> don't steal our thunder turkey, if you're not paying attention, has been one of the most red hot markets and made investors a lot of money over 20 years. >> yeah. i hate to steal your rbi but bottom line here is, this is a very deep, liquid and strong

market for those who have been playing it in a long time. it's always been extremely volatile some of the industrial companies in turkey are some of the strongest companies throughout europe so they've seen current account issues before. they've seen liquidity crises before they're well-run i'm guessing going into this their balance sheets were defensive in terms of how they were positioned. but the dynamics here right now are certainly those that are coming from ankrah, erdogan is not doing anything to make it easier right now the independence in central bank, yes, you want to see a rate hike just to show that they can do technically what would be the right thing to do in this environment. that's what we're watching for now. >> trillion dollar question, tim. can the u.s. decouple from turkey the nasdaq is up 13% this year will we continue to decouple >> let's be clear here volatility in our markets five

sessions ago was at record lows or the lows we saw january 26 when we went through a difficult period positioning right now in the markets that it makes it that much more of a concern we're near the highs sentiment had gone from being quite dire, call it six, eight weeks ago, even what started in early february to a place where i think investors had really look past a lot of the graveyard that had been taking us into a difficult place. now, the mitigating side of this is, global central banks have to be paying attention. our fed has to pay attention to liquidity dynamics which are affecting european banks that's something that will help here do we completely decouple? i don't think so not in this environment. let's be clear the u.s. will be a flight to quality and we've seen this many times before i think that will continue this time. >> by the way, there's also a trade spat we have with -- i don't know if we paid attention to that.

>>ist just a little one. >> tim seymour, very good stuff as always. time for the top trending stories. what are you going to be talking about today? landon dowdy is back with those. >> not just monday we're talking about box office little bit the meg taking the top at the box office according to com score. it took home $44.5 million that makes meg the studio's biggest opening of the year. this is a great story. got to see these images. a 19-month-old coe a la took to the skies. it couldn't travel in the cargo hold it arrived safely in the new home in the edinburgh zoo. >> do you have eucalyptus, sir >> could i have two packs of eucalyptus, please >> remember when they tried to take a peacock. >> emotional support peacock

we work for nbc, they give us those. >> thank goodness. >> see what else is trending you'll love this. >> you gave everything away. >> no, i didn't. why does the viewer know what my favorite song is. >> they didn't know it was trending take a listen. >> ♪ >> that was the sound of 457 guitarists strumming highway to hell in australia. they gathered in an attempt to set the world record for the most people playing the same song at the same time on electric guitars it could take a little time for guinness to verify, though this group should easily beat out the previous record holders which was 368 guitarists playing knocking on heaven's door in india in 2014. >> i swear that's not where i lost my voice. >> were you singing? all my friends will be there too. landon, thank you very much.

the sports, the late drama in the end of the pga. tiger woods made a charge coming within a shot of the lead before shanking a drive out of bounds he hit it out on the 17th hole tiger finished in second following brooks koepka. he played a mistake-free, including this laser shot on the 17th landed a few feet shy of the hole tapped it in for a paragraph at 18 wrapped it up. koepka picked up third major and second this year he's the fifth player to wint u.s. open and the pga in the same year. the other players are ben hogan, gene sarazen and zajack nicklau and oh, yeah, tiger woods. your next guest says a super good economy don't always equal a booming housing market what do expect from your real estate you can find out coming up next. .

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welcome back good morning the story of the day, turkey, no doubt, you're watching the turkish lira in the full fight -- call it a crisis is one thing. look at it it's up a little bit today 6.5% to 6.845. 7 to 1 it's kind of a level that boris schlossberg and others want to watch. watch the 7 to 1 level and see if it becomes more of a global currency contagion remember in the mid to late

'90s you had the thai bot which collapsed. nobody paid much attention to it until they did, because it started to affect other currencies and other banks and other stock markets. right now turkey seems to only be affecting itself. some european banks and the south african rand it's a big story to watch. it's also a big week ahead for the housing market on wednesday, we get a check on the homebuilders thursday housing starts are out. joining us to talk about all of it is the chief economist at the national association of realtors lawrence, you have called thrks this is your term, i love it, a super good economy why don't we have a super good housing market >> it is due to the affordability issues the home prices have risen just too fast about 50% over the past six years. while income growth is less than 15%. so we have a disparity of home prices rising way above people's

income and now with slightly higher mortgage rates, some consumers are saying, look, i'm going to take a time-out or they don't have the financial capacity to make that big purchase we are seeing buyers retreat because of affordability but in areas where homes are affordable, buyers are still in the game. >> we need homebuilders to build more homes pure and simple. we're building about -- every year about half the number of homes we were a decade ago why aren't we building more homes? >> you are absolutely right. it's not only a one-year phenomena. this under-production has been going on for ten years the combination of under-production over a decade is the reason why there's an inventory shortage and inventory shortage leading to prices rise too fast a way to get the builders up is we need to relax some of the excessive regulation, local zoning laws.

lack of construction workers, america think maybe to focus more on vocational training and the other part is that many of the small-time builders, not the publicly listed builders, but mom and pop builders, they've been shut out of the game because it was difficult to obtain construction loans. now with the relaxation of dodd/frank, we anticipate that some of the small builders would be able to get the loans and start building i see more home construction down the line. >> hopefully, they can get back into the market quickly. why aren't sellers selling why are there so few homes on the market >> the sellers have been staying in their home typically about ten years according to our data. the more normal condition would be about seven or eight years. people are staying in their home for longer period. i think it's part of the coming out of the housing recession the other part is that a cat and mouse game they do want to sell but they

cannot find the right home they're just staying in their home for a little longer it's like musical chairs they don't see an empty seat so saying why should i stand up and let someone else take my seat. if we have the homebuilders, empty seats coming on to the market, that will relieve a lot of friction currently in the housing. lawrence, thank you nice and early from chicago lawrence, we appreciate it have a great day thank you. >> thank you still to come, the market, your money on high alert stocks feeling the heat as turkey fears spread. what needs to be on your radar as we kick off a new week. speaking of turkey, got a startling stat on that nation's stock market teth icongp bi ands mi u afr is stick around with your golf cl. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to

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need a change of scenery? the kayak price forecast tool tells you whether to wait or book your flight now. so you can be confident you're getting the best price. giddyup! kayak. search one and done. welcome back selling is accelerating a little bit in futures dow futures. not a huge move down

but selling picked up a bit. the nasdaq and the s&p 500 are also down. the nasdaq breaking an 8-day win streak last friday turkey squarely in focus everybody watching the turkish lira maybe the most important trade in the world right now we're seeing a bounceback. but what you want to watch is the 7 to 1 level we're at 6.86. 7 to 1 the line in the sand, if you will many currency watchers are saying that could be a big point of holding or resistance and support for the turkish lira the turkish stock market not bouncing back. just under the -- down 3.77% that is priced, though, by the way in turkish lira. we're going to show you on a price in dollars coming up it's a very different look all right. let's talk about this and everything else impacting you and your money equity strategist at citi group. tobias you're not a turkey expert

kind of a macro expert how many calls and e-mails are you getting about turkey right now? how much is this on your clients' radar i >> china -- you're talking about 7 to 1 [ inaudible i think what really has occurred in the market, we had a level of kplcomplacency that was develop. we had proprietary metric for watching how investors are positioned, not how they feel. it was edging to 44 would get you to euphoria levels at 42 on friday. it's been edging up over the -- >> this is very cool it's called the panic euphoria index. 44 would be extreme joy. i mean, just dancing through the fields. >> it's more about what the market reaction would be when you get into euphoria level, you have a 70% chance of losing money that's three times the random

probability of losing money. if you're in panic levels -- >> too complacent and too happy? the positioning is too happy. >> i was talking with a client last week. he made a comment to me. he says we're worried about x, y and z. i said, well, you're saying you're not worried because you're worried do you understand the double negative the reasons for that, why would people feel relatively complacent there are probably three key reins. the u.s. economy is pretty decent shape earnings have been outstanding, in second quarter results. powerful buyback activity. there's a put in the market. if it goes down, the buy backs kick up and -- >> do you think that will support if we start to see a china/turkey/whatever contagion? can corporate america's buyback buying programs back us up >> it helps with $27 trillion market the fundamentals are far more

important, earnings are far more important. in fact, if you look at the last great year for buybacks, it was 2007 that was the top of the market >> we know what happened in 2007. >> suggesting you have buybacks that protects you is the wrong thing. we watch a shorter term thing. the top 15 by market cap in the s&p 500. accounts for about half the market cap of the s&p. >> yeah. >> their interest stock correlation, how they trade relative to one another dropped to 10% that means no one was macro concerned. we can look at indicators to give us a sense. aside from the qualitative feeling of talking to investors. >> very euphoric. >> the positions may be too happy. let's wrap it up we know about turkey's meltdown and currency in the stock market in turkish lira terms, look at this the stock market has soared. in fact, it is 75% below where it was ten years ago 99% lower 25 years ago

but in u.s. dollar terms, it's at 2009 lows poanencies boring, but imrtt. hopefully that's random. but interesting. have a great day ok, show me what you got.

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the morning markets across the globe in the red as turkey's currency crashed it's sparking contagion fears. we get a live from turkey on the government's plan to halt that slide. tumbling after a court says one of the popular weed killers can cause cancer more details from the decision and reaction in the markets is straight ahead and president trump applauding a boycott of harley davidson motorcycles we'll get you caught up on all of the morning's top political and business stories it's monday, august 13, 2018 "squawk box" begins right now.

♪ >> announcer: live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. harley davidson song good morning welcome to squawks box on cnbc live i'm andrew sorkin. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour we try to make sense of whether there may or may not be contagi contagion. opening up off 77 points nasdaq looking to open down as well 19, 20 points. the s&p 500 off about 7 points also show you what's happened overnight in asia. this is red arrows across the board. th