tv Mad Money CNBC August 13, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> tbt, i think the flight to quality will end soon. >> final trade buy macy's ahead of earnings >> brian kelly >> not always comfortable on the other side vehatlt. gi tt a shot >> "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain, but now educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. after a day where the dow shed 125 points, s&p dipped .4%, nasdaq declined 2.5%, we need to add another t to the toxic group
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that's got people scared just by the incredible economy it's no longer just tariffs and trade anymore. now we've got turkey to worry about too. i'm talking about the sudden turkish currency crisis and its impact on our markets. first, though, let's set some groundrules. well need to distinguish between two very different kinds of risks that often get conflated with one another i heard them conflated all day today, so i've got some real work to do there is systemic risks, something that could actually wreck our nation's economy think the great recession. and then there is the financial risk. >> sell, sell, sell! >> where a stock market might go down because an event like the collapse of the turkish liro it's totally justified, but it's not the kind of thing that is going to bring the whole world to its knees, and that's what you really need to know. in short, turkey is a financial risk, not systemic risk. how do i know that well, a lot of different reasons, but i'll tell you one
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way, because i'm one of the few people left in this business who actually traded turkey during a different crisis, the 1993 fiasco where the turks devalued their currency by 40% in a single month and ultimately needed to bring in the international monetary fund to stay afloat. if you pick up confessions of a street addict, still available in many stores, i actually describe owning the turkish whirlpool and bank of america back then and how devastating it was the emerging markets i said ooh, ago, beating the drum to anyone who would listen, this was a crisis of immense proportions! but it wasn't. it just wasn't as i've been trying to say on twitter today, it wasn't in truth, it was only a crisis for people who on the other hand turkish securities, owned turkish bonds, turkish lira. and in my opinion, this current turkish meltdown will ultimately play out the same way. however we know how these crises
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work before turkey runs its courses in negative, pundits wanting to go on record telling us look out, the sky is falling. and the contagion, it cannot be contained. >> the house of pain >> someone should give these guys a reality check turkey has a $900 billion economy. us $19 trillion but you can't ignore it. in 1997, a thai contagion metastasized into an asian financial crisis it a hugehead hedge fund created losses for banks and caused a real fiscal crisis at least here to the point where the fed had to cut rates could turkey be one of these, they'd have to cut rates i don't think so or could it be one more buying opportunity like any of the more recent crises in the four major greek crises, the two italian jobs, the two spanish
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sicknesses, those turned out to be phenomenal moments to buy american stocks, not sell them but every single one on the first, second, and third day, you heard people say you got to sell i think the turkish torment will be more like these others. but you have to let it unfold first, the same way you have to let each new presidential tweet about tariffs work their way through the stock market, generate some losses now why is there any contagion to begin with? because there are always stupid banks with few risk controls that are always willing to lend to markets like turkey, chiefly in dollars so when the dollar goes higher, like it's doing lately, turkey can't pay back its creditors because the exchange rate is too unfavorable. that in turn makes people worry about bank runs which causes weakness in the financials which spreads to the rest of the stock market in kind of a goldberg like device. that's what happened friday. today stupidly the market opened up which brought out the sellers who didn't get a chance to do their selling on friday. they just didn't get to escape they took advantage of the lift
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to head for hills all afternoon. but i see this whole exercise as an opportunity i always tell you to wait for some shock to take down the whole market and then you can pounce on real good stocks the problem is that when these shocks happen like turkey, all sorts of people come out of the woodwork and try to scare you into believing it is the end of the world. it's almost like a cottage industry people. and they usually do it with a bunch of bogus historical analyses what should you be buying rather than trying to debunk these people over and over again they wont let you. they will never let themselves be debunked. let's talk about an action plan. don't buy anything that can possibly be connected to turkey, at least not at first. that means you do have to stay away from the banks, not just because bears will claim a link with turkey. contagion breeds a stronger dollar which translates into lower interest rates which means weaker earnings for the banks. that's actually true the industrials can be a tad uncertain too because of the other ts, tariffs and trade. it's not like turkey obliterate
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these concerns in some ways, it intensifies them hence, the ways -- the weakness in the group and i'm not fighting remember, again, i'm not choosing to fight. i don't need to. because there is so many things that work. what works, then well, first there is some tech i like alphabet and i like amazon i think alphabet is taking a share from facebook when it comes to advertise, and the company will soon be monetizing wemo amazon is all about retail, the cloud. we'll give you more later. second, health care. here i like the health insurers, chiefly unitedhealth group, you can follow along by joining the actionalerts.com club. humana, which we just profiled, humana which is part of the health maintenance that we continue to profile, and let's remember the ospital, hca, which we profiled just last week so hospitals and health insurers i'm indifferent to which ones you pick
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they're indifferent, they're crushing the numbers and the stocks rarely come down. about your only opportunities to buy this into week answer. they don't sell off. so use it. third, i think the largely domestic retailers will still work, even though they're up a lot, particularly the discounters. here i'm thinking about burlington and dollar general, but also kohl's because its tie-in with amazon where you can return its merchandise by walking through kohl's' stores jpmorgan matthew boss recommended on halftime. you remember my game plan last week macy's reports at the end of the week maybe it's going to be good. don't overlook the apparel cohort michael kors was extraordinary last week. ralph lauren has been on a tear. the old coach, it fits so does nike fourth, medical devices and diagnostics. and here where i want you toe consider an avid labs, baxter, medtronic, or last week's guest
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perkinelmer. i really like that stock if it will come in, with no turkish sensitivity here and not much about tariffs or trade fifth, i really do like the domestic cables and telcos i'm not distributing from my friend this morning. i think t-mobile, if it comes down, it hasn't come down since it reported, that's a winner john legere just tweeted that the 8 is available i paid a lot for the 8 maybe i should have gone to him. i think he could get through that sprint deal by the way, now that disney is done fighting with comcast, the parent company of the network, you can buy either or both stephanie links says buy disney down here. i agree with her sixth, the rails i've got to tell you, this group never cosm. >> in all aboard >> whenever you here some company talking about the rising cost of freight, and don't they all? that's money in the bank agnostic, union pacific, kansas city southern, norfolk southern, csx. go whichever one is brought down by turkey. the people come on, oh, turkey
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currency take a look at one of the rails. seven, this group, i am completely enamored of, cybersecurity. the issue keeps intensifying as we get more state-sponsored cyber terrorism as we learned from the scent ceo of cyberarc 52-week high like proof point for e-mail security and palo alto networks as a general defense against hackers. finally, number eight, the redoubtable fintech, or financial tech technologies stock. hey, stay tuned, we got another one for you, a new one later in the show now there are other less visible plays, but you need to buy stocks that are being brought down by s&p 500 sell programs, because that's what the hedge funds bang down when they want to bet against the contagion let the algos work for you this are dozens of one off stocks you finally get a chance to buy mccormick, remember when they were on recently how about spotify? how many times have i bang, bang, bang the drum on that one?
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and by the way, take two interactive. but the bottom line is you need to use a sell-off like this current turkey-related tum to believe do some buying into weakness when the weakness percolates the people of turkey have my sympathy there, but is no systemic risk here, which means it's safe to take advantage of the fear that's been sown, and pick up some of these high quality sectors, best of breed within them, at ridiculously discounted prices. let's go to preston in arizona, please preston? >> phoenix, arizona boo-yah to you, cramer. >> all the way to tacoma what's up there? you guys crushed the phillies. what's going on? >> caller: hey, question for you pertaining to company ticker al. soon to be a leader in the aircraft leasing sector. they had another great quarter earnings seem to be on track almost all their aircraft is leased through 2021. just last month, they ordered 78 new airplanes from boeing. question is, with the uptick in
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the economy and passenger travel growth increasing globally, and all the positives that this company seems to have going for it, do you see al as a company worth investing in >> i have to tell you, preston, it's all over the map. if we suddenly read that the chinese are cancelling orders to boeing, even though you're absolutely right, they're sold through for a long time, this stock goes down. i've seen it time and again. i don't want you to go there they are very smart people, but it's not the right stock for this environment all right, look, i don't think there is a systemic risk with the crisis in turkey i'm probably one of the few said that today, certainly on twitter. but it means you should be considering buying into the weakness the high quality stocks that are within each one of these sectors. companies that could cleanup in the pot business and also in fintech. don't miss my interview with the ceo to find out how. the once undisputed beast in the travel sector giving such a
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down beat forecast what's that all somebody i'm investigating. and after an early rally last week, dropbox fell back to earth, or at least down 10% on friday what's with that i'm helping you make sense of the madness. so stick with cramer >> don't miss a second of "mad money. follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney.cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc miss something head to madmoney.cnbc.com.
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when cash is king, this company is on guard. but brinks rolls out more services than just their iconic trucks with the stock stalled after a key acquisition, can brinks help keep your portfolio safe >> in a huge rally, sometimes the stock will pause for a breather witness the recent trajectory of the brinks trajectory. the cash management business that you most likely recognize from its big armored cars.
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at the end of may, brinks announced that it's buying dunbar armor, one of their main competitors, and the stock rocketed up 16% on the news. you know what? in a nice surprise, that deal just closed today. i think it could be an upward catalyst for a stock that's been trading sideways, even as the company reported a blowout quarter at the end of july just a terrific top and bottom line beat. let's take a closer look at doug perch, the president and ceo of the brinks company, who has created a tremendous amount of value in his two years as ceo, get a better sense of where his company is headed after the dunbarton deal closed. welcome to "mad money. good to see you, sir. >> thanks, glad to be here >> i did not think it was going to close today a bit of surprise. what's it mean for the company >> it's exciting because it's a great company, that is dunbar, combining with a great business in brinks. 90 year plus of three generations in dunbar and great are reputation with employees, with customers combining with brinks work. we think with the combination,
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we'll create great value for our shareholders and custom mix, but number one, the cash management. will you keep both names >> we will see where that goes but chances it will migrate to a single name. >> synergies >> there will be significant synergies. we've already talked about cost synergies in the press release we put out cost synergies are very significant over the next two to three years. 45 to 45 main in cost which are significant on a business of this size. >> we know you got involved and started recommending your stock when we saw there was an inflection we couldn't figure it out. it's actually your management came in and what you've done them us how you managed to get the growth the company has been around since the civil war. >> that's great. 160 years. exactly right. great brand in the business. and i think the company didn't have the leadership, the focus, the strategies in place that were probably needed i'm very pleased that i had the opportunity to come in and be able to work with the management we have a great management team that's done a great job and really rose to the challenge, if
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you will, that we are now putting a new strategy together, which we rolled out march of last year, and we've been aggressively implementing, executing on that strategy, and you see the results. the results are 30% plus growth for the last six to eight quarter. >> it's been terrific. i think one of the misperceptions, and i shared it too because i'm so close to the visas and the mastercards, hey, we're going to a cashless society. well, it turns out not just that plastic is doing well. but cash is doing betterin som ways the growth is amazing. >> the growth is great in cash, and it has been for years. the last year cash in circulation in the u.s. alone was 6% that's 6% on top of at least 5% growth over the last 20 years. and what that means, in fact, as an investor, i'd sit and say what does that mean to me? well, that's better growth, substantially better growth than gdp. and if i can get a business invested in that's substantially higher than gdp growth, it makes a heck of a lot of sense to do
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that but one of the big things that's very interesting about this our competitors, as you're suggesting in the digital, the fintech space are the ones that come back that say cash is good. it is growing. it's going to be there for quite a while. paypal have said two things. one when they're asked in an interview, whose your biggest compete snore cash 85% of total payments globally are cash that's a good example. >> now one of the things that shocked me when i was going over your numbers is that mexico's gigantic for you. >> it is. >> why >> it's going very nicely. there is two reasons for that. one of them and the biggest macro is it's very much of a cash-driven society. on a global basis, cash is 80, 85%. in mexico, it's probably 90 plus per sent so it's very cash driven from that standpoint. second is that from our standpoint as a company, it had been undermanaged, and we didn't have a good relationship with the unions we worked with down there. since then we developed a great relationship over the two years as part of our strategic plan process with mex specific initiatives to reinvest
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as well as to work with the union there's to develop better strategies and better directions, and it's working very well. top line growth is double digit. and then on top of that, we almost doubled our margin others that period of time. >> i think it's important because you guys bring it up we have a lot of currencies today. it looks like that argentina has continued along this progression that you don't -- that's not necessarily good for the company, but you keep saying don't worry. it's not going this interest rates up 45% now but you're okay on that kind of? >> jim, what we need to remember, all these things we see about fx rates and how a lot of the developing economies are in a tough position on it, we are translational fx risk. >> not transaction. >> we're not related to what the cost of plastics or petroleum or anything else is and all of our businesses are local. so the local business whether it be in average stina or mexico, our costs are local, it's all based on that. argentina has been high inflation for years.
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for years. we know how to operate it. they know how to operate the structure is in place as inflation goes up in the country, the pricing goes up along wit and the structure fits along wit. so we're very comfortable with it >> the last question, cannabis we know that the banking system is not really equipped to handle all these stores that opened up. we had a bunch of people on. some of these places are doing $10 million per unit they can't afford to keep that cash overnight i know you want the go ohm only where it's legal, but that is a total cash-based retail business, isn't it >> it's very much. i wouldn't say totally, but very highly cash. >> they have atm machines all over the place >> but i think what's important about this is we as brinks, both domestically, other countries and globally, we're in the best position we're the largest player globally as in high value transportation that's one piece on it the second piece on it is the cash payment we're in the best position for that as well i think a good test of this will be in canada canada is talking about a lot of
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what's going on a national basis. >> and you'll be ready. >> and we'll be ready. we're talking with some of the largest player there's today to manage all of their deliveries as well as their cash management >> well, i think that this dunbar closing is going to be the catalyst that is needed. this is one growth company after many years, one of the oldest companies we follow. it's a growth one. that's doug pertz, the ceo of brinks boy, i like this story "mad money" is back after the break. your brain is an amazing thing. but as you get older, it naturally begins to change,
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♪ i keep telling you that this is a stock picker's market, that it's not just about the s&p trading in and out, but what does it actually mean? simple it means the companies in the same industry that do roughly the same thing that have stocks that can move in completely opposite directions. >> buy, buy, buy. >> sell, sell, sell! >> in a word, it's all about differentiation. it's new for this market
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it's a market that rewards you for being able to look at two very similar companies and say hey, that one's better than the other one. exhibit a. look at the online travel agencies lately this group has been giving you major differentiation. less than three weeks ago we got results from expedia, the number two player, and its stock exploded higher after a fabulously better than expected quarter. then last thursday, we heard from booking holdings, which sounds like the place where the police put you when they're taking your fingerprints and the mug shots, but it's actually the artist formally known as priceline, the big dog in the online cohort. even though the actual quarter was fine, books guidance was remarkably tepid, so the stock sold off dramatically. it plunged. >> sell, sell, sell! sell, sell, sell >> in a single session the darn thing has continued to get hammered falling to 1 i 854 for today that is a decline of more than 9% it is a -- >> the house of pain
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>> so what the heck happened how it is that booking holdings, the company that used to be the undisputed best of breed is now giving us such a down beat forecast that at the same time its closest rival expedia is incredibly upbeat about the future expedia has made a ton of investments in its own technology as well as expanding the business overseas, and lately these efforts have begun to pay off big time. expedia's new ceo, mark okerstrom has been doing a terrific job i think the stock has a lot more room to run. i really like the home away business too so what went wrong with booking holdings, a can a priceline? and something did go wrong the company is pretty much the veto corleone of hotel books is it the healthy veto or old ready to keel over veto corleone
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of marlon brando in the original bookings changed its name because priceline is just one piece of the mosaic. it includes booking.com, kayak, rental cars.com and open table, which is just a conglomeration of a bunch of things booking.com is the heart of the business you may not have used it here in the united states. i've used it a couple of times but you know what? it's really a european brand it does a huge business over there. so where did these guys go wrong? before we start casting blame, let me make one thing crystal clear. this stock has been a very good performer long-term. i do not want to slight that it has ban monster. i used to like it all the time it has given you 94% gain after five years hey, that's a good move. even with a severe pullback last thursday, the darn thing is still up 7% for year in recent months the stock fell roughly 17% from its march highs. if you're looking for them, the first real signs of trouble
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started popping up about a year ago when booking reported last august the company posted a books bookings shortfall and gave conservative guidance. in november, they beat their lowered expectation s slightly once again the stock got hit that november quarter is when we began hearing a new line from management ceo glen fogel explained that they were shifting their marketing budget away from the web, in particular google, which has gotten too expensive instead they'll divert money to tv so get this straight out of google to some degree and into tv. now fogel admitted this might cause the company's growth to take a near-term hit, but he figured the investment would be worth it long-term coming into the year the stock rallied hard with the averages after the market sell-off in february, the newly rebrand booking reported a gigantic earnings beat. vogel talked about how well the new market brand was working,
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saying the company was getting a better return on its investment from ads in short, the earlier slowdown seemed to be abating, and the big headwind everyone was worrying about, a possibly misspent marketing, it looked like a nothing burger. the stock explode higher on the news so far so good i thought wow. hey, maybe this guy's got a right game plan. how do we end wrap-up we are now? first, the escalating trade war rhetoric sure didn't help. not good for a travel company that does so much business overseas, and the stock began to slip then the dollar started getting strong, which is bad news for american businesses to get most of their sales from overseas it certainly hurts foreigners trying to come here too. still, there was a ton of optimism going into the may quarter. then booking delivers a pretty good quarter with not so hot forecast for the next earnings period o on the conference call, vogel tried to seem optimistic, but he seemed kind of defensive about his controversial marketing progr program. the stock plunged 5% but
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stabilized in the 2000s. investors were less optimistic but weren't quite ready to give up on this one yet so when booking flubd it again last week, we saw widespread capitulation there was a lot riding on the numbers. expedia just shot the lights out. booking holdings mead neneeded v itself they earned more than 20 bucks a share when analysts were only looking for 17 and change. this time the forecast for the next quarter is particularly grim [ booing ] >> what's clear is books are slowing. yet glen fogel blamed the weather and the world cup before he admitted the new marketing strategy has contributed to the slowdown i didn't like that part of the problem, the company scaled back its online ads without ramping up its tv ads fast enough. the problem here is straight forward. it doesn't matter how you slice it, frankly. bookings' growth is slower, whether you're looking at room nights booked or total bookings or revenue and based on management's
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guidance, the slowdown is going to get much worse. they just delivered 15%. now they're looking for 6 to 9% next quarter they posted 17% revenue growth new they're talk about 6 to 9% revenue growth next quarter. and the mid point of their earnings is $ 2.50 lower. this is the most important time of the year for the travel companies. everybody goes on vacation at the end of the summer. and the ticker management was totally tone deaf rather than admitting they need to fix the problems that >> blame it on england, france, belgium staying home to watch the world cup. geez, guys, maybe this is what happens when you shift your marketing budget from going toll television so where can booking holdings go from here? here is the core problem when booking decided to real locate its ad spending, sacrificing sales in order to
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boost profitability, they opted to become a value stock rather than a growth stock. now that's my view, but that's what i think is happening here the thing is investors pay more for growth stocks. that's why expedia sales for 21 times next year's earnings and booking sells for less than 9% next year's earnings so many of you have asked me about this, i had to explain it. at the moment books doesn't kno whether it's a grethe stock or value stock. as long as that's the case, i think you should avoid it. stick with expedia that is doing great with a growth story that is very easy or the investors to understand let's go to gayle in connecticut. gayle. >> caller: boo-yah, eagles man. >> yes let's go birds >> caller: considering the supreme court passed a ruling, i'm wondering what company is in the best position to be a money make were legalized gambling could it be caesar's entertainment? >> no, we've said it's pinnacle
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entertainment. pnk. it aadvise issues we've had from china and it has a decent balance sheet. pnk is the way to go, and thank you nor go birds and yes, i'm not worried about alshon jeffery i just weighed in on twitter than he'll be good to go. maybe not the first couple of games. there we go. there is my espn note for today. on books holding figures out whether it's a growth play or value play, we have an easy call here we're going to stick with ex-pedia much more "money ahead dropbox dropping, it is a buying opportunity or a red flag? then apple may have won the race to a trillion bucks, but could amazon be hot on its trail i'm giving my take on what's ahead for the company. and your calls in tonight's rapid-fire of the "lightning round. so stick with cramer
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is one major unforced error that people make quarter after quarter. they assume the action in a stock is an actual accurate reflection of how the underlying company is doing this is an important lesson that i'm going to teach you tonight i need you to understand this. this is one of the most counterintuitive things that seems like it should be straight forward when a couple reports and goes straight up, you figure the quarter must have been good. when it reports and the stock goes down, you figure it must have been bad, right after all, it's not like the invisible hand of the free market makes mistakes. spare me the stock market is constantly making mistakes, and the action in individual stocks can be highly misleading. every earnings period there is usually more than one company that gets wrongfully convicted of doing badly just because its stock sells off at the end of the quarter on the announcement. >> sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, sell >> this time around, it happened to dropbox, dropbox, the online
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storage and digital collaboration. i've been a fan since it came public in march. but last week its stock went kind of crazy. from monday through thursday, dropbox screamed higher, climbing from $30 to 34. 30 to 34 keep that in mind. this whole move was in anticipation of a quarter they reported on thursday night buyers stampeded into the stock, assuming the results had to be great. and you know what? they were. dropbox did report a great quarter. let me repeat that dropbox reported a great quarter but the stock's monster 15% run in the previous four days had raised the bar, meaning you were also dealing with great expectations and much like reading the dickens novel of the same name, great expectations can be a real struggle so while dropbox rallied to 36 bucks in after-hours trading, it quickly gave back the gains and only saw its shares plunge nearly 10% on friday then today it shed another 6%
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with the stock actually going back below 30 bucks. it's now back where it was trading before last week's big run-up because of that breakdown, many people are there assuming that dropbox many have dropped the ball it must be horrible. they figure something must have gone wrong or else the stock couldn't have been crushed i'm telling you, that is wrong you had a ton of people crowding into dropbox last week, basically chasing the momentum and betting on insanely out of the world numbers. when the stock ended up going lower, many of those recent buyers threw in the towel. they were hoping for an easy win, and they didn't get one that's the story here. what makes me so confident that dropbox is doing well? let's go over the numbers. why don't we actually deal with the fundamental here 5% earnings beat off a 6% basis, higher than expected sales, up 27% year-over-year they saw the growth margin expand by an incredible 780 basis points to 75.84% and that in itself is an amazing
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figure ♪ hallelujah but the key metrics are users. dropbox is about giving away a free version of the service in the hope that the free customers will eventually migrate, be willing to pay up for more functionality. that's a huge pool of people to pull paying customers from and it's one of the reasons i've been such a believer in the story. sure enough, dropbox now has 11.9 paid subscribers, up 20% year-over-year and higher than the analysts were expecting. their average revenue per user increased by 5%. this is the same prescription model used by spotify which keeps going higher and higher without any recognition other than here. dropbox's management gave bullish guidance for both the next quarter and the full year in short, there was lot to like about this quarter why did the stock get hit with such a dramatic sell-off i don't want to be glib here dropbox wasn't perfect we learned the company's chief operating officer will be stepping down in december with
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his responsibilities being split between two other executives normally this wouldn't be a huge deal well career ceo departure, but a chief operating officer is kind of less important. remember, dropbox had a run-up which meant that potential sellers were looking for any excuse to ring the register. it didn't help this ceo drew halston, who i like very much kicked off the conference call about making a big fuss about how much woodside would be missed. >> was some come meling, wait a second, maybe this company is going to be hurt because of his departure, until i thought it through and recognized how strong the business. on top of that, there were nits to pick. it was tiny bit light what the analysts were looking for. the cash flow came in higher than expected, but they didn't raise their full year free cash flow forecast. was management being conservative or did they have reason, some reason to think that the cash flow might be a little underwhelming in the
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second half? i think it was the former. but if you're look for flaws, this is another one. finally, dropbox only raises operation margins by 50 basis points you might have expected a bigger bea boost. you really have to twist yourts into a pretzel to stretch any of these into serious problems. in short, dropbox reported a great albeit not quite perfect quarter there was one legitimate reason for the stock to get slammed that i could find, but it has nothing to do with dropb dropbox's actual operating basis. remember, this company came public in late march normally after an ipo, there is a six-month lockup on insider selling, and when the lockup ends, that insider selling can really hurt. last week dropbox shortened the lockup period. it's now going to end on august 23rd that is just ten days from now. now, i don't think it really matters whether they end the lockup in two weeks or six weeks. but for people who just bought the stock going into the quarter, the impending lockup probably came as a jarring
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surprise. >> sell, sell, sell! sell, sell, sell >> at the end of the day, though, dropbox sold off after the quarter because the stock was inundated with hot money the darn thing had rallied from nine straight session. so when they actually reported these hot money guides just sold on the news. this has happened before as eric johnson, my colleague at thestreet.com, what a great tech writer he is, points out, dropbox saw its stock surge 40% in a span of a few days in june with nothing more than vague buyout speculation then gave up the entire move the stock is a wild trader so what do you do with it here look, i'm still a believer in the story, maybe more so down here dropbox has a terrific subscription based model the fantastic book about the description economy. people -- he is from zora. people use these guys' platform and then love so it much that they convince their bosses to adopt dropbox at work. i use it
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you probably use it. that's why i think you have to use any weakness here as a buying opportunity however, given the lockup on insider selling ends in a week and a half, you might want to scale into the stock slowly, put it on a small position here and buy some more if it gets harder after the lockup expiration. bottom line, please don't be freaked out by the post earnings breakdown. the darn thing ran up too much going into the quarter it was due for a pullback. i think it remains buy, even though i would like it even more lower level, which you might get when that lockup expiration expires in just ten short days we get that expiration be ready "mad money" is back after the break.
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boo-yah. i appreciate all the great books you've written my favorite is "confessions of a speed addict." i would like your opinion of me buying shares of carnal lines. do you think it's a best of breed? >> i think it's good but i think norwegian has better growth and the proof is in the pudding. the numbers from norwegian are excellent. david in new jersey, david >> caller: good evening, jim i'm calling tonight about ntw. >> it is unfathomable that that stock can be as low as it is i'm not buying it. $800 million if you can put it away, i suggest you do so. how about john in new jersey, john >> i'll make it up to you. thank you, joyce i mean it. >> what's up john, you're won jim. >> caller: yes >> go ahead. you're up, man >> caller: jim cramer. old john from the jersey shore down the road from where you live. >> absolutely. ocean grove's finest what's up? >> caller: okay.
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i'm an old admirer and mentor of yours going back to the radio shows. >> oh, geez, a long time ago how can i help >> caller: your opinion on tootsie roll had it for years bought it -- >> everyone keeps thinking that one day they're going to get a bid. they don't have a lot of growth. without a bid they're going to flat line. what can i say i can't recommend if i don't think the earnings are exploding, and i don't see them exploding. edward >> caller: hey, jim i bought green stock. they beat earnings but the stock keeps following. do i hold or sell? >> it makes no sense to me that this thing keeps getting killed. i have to do work on it. i mean, i don't know it seemed like a good fintech name when it came public it's not work. let me do work i need to go to rich from new jersey rich >> caller: greetings from stone harbor, new jersey
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>> oh, many my philadelphians love stone harbor what's up? >> i appreciate your take, jim, on universal display >> oh, my. see? it falls and rallies with apple and what apple is doing. it's too hard for me these days. and that is the conclusion of the "lightning round"! [ buzzer ] >> the "lightning round" is sponsored by td ameritrade my two. his three. along with two dogs and jake, our new parrot. that is quite the family. quite a lot of colleges to pay for though. a lot of colleges. you get any financial advice? yeah, but i'm pretty sure it's the same plan they sold me before. well your situation's totally changed now. right, right. how 'bout a plan that works for 5 kids, 2 dogs and jake over here? that would be great. that would be great. that okay with you, jake? get a portfolio that works for you now and as your needs change from td ameritrade investment management.
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apple may have won the race to a trillion dollar valuation, but amazon's not very far behind, currently just under $925 billion last week there was a run where it looked like apple might surrender its perch when a state-controlled chinese newspaper strongly implied that the iphone make worry be in the cross-hairs -- [ shooting ] to have dinner with the president and his wife first lady quickly tweeted, and i quote, proud of the job he is doing at apple big innovations and investments in the usa that positively impacts our economy. and quote, i took the comments kind of say a virtual line in the sand, meaning that the chinese should think twice about going after apple. that, along with the epic buyback helped push the stock to a new all-time high today. remember, the repurchase program has been a huge difference here. when apple reported, its ceo sat
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down for an interview where he made it clear he tries to buy the stock aggressively when it's down because he believes it's undervalued. i don't think fears of a chinese boycott deterred but the one to watch right now, the stock thatcould place in horse racing parlance is amazon. this is truly a dazzling company that gives you so many different ways to win. not that long ago, the president was pounding away at the mistaken notion that amazon was abusing the u.s. postal service, taking advantage of what he viewed as a sweetheart contract. the president's heavy-handed tweeting drove the stock down to the 1300s. but amazon has been going pretty much straight up since then. this move is being powered by three different booster, not one. powered by retail, the cloud and advertising. earlier this year jeff bezos revealed that amazon prime had more than 100 million members. that's a shocking number from a man who never gives specifics if he can avoid it. i shows how entrenched the
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company is in retail, not that we really need in order proof. when you consider the rapid growth rate, the business could be worth nearly as much as the whole entire company right now let's call it $800 billion, if you want to be conservative. 800 billion. what about the cloud we heard about how amazon services is pulling away from google cloud and microsoft's azure. it's not so much that they're pulling away, it's that they have a fantastic lead and they keep maintaining the lead. the web service division by itself could liz be worth, are you ready? $500 billion so now we're up to $1.3 trillion and then along comes a piece of research today, very thoughtful titled amazon advertising profits likely to exceed aws that's amazon web services by 2021 exceed it's an incredible note. the key takeaway, they think that amazon's businesses could
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be worth 150 to $190 billion because it's growing so fast piper sees it as i quote, massive driver of current and future profitability, end quote. they're talking about ad revenues doubling from $8 billion to $16 billion by 2020 a revenue stream that's barely into the stock price right here. add that all up, and some of the parts businesses you could make an incredible case that amazon should be worth $1.5 trillion. that's up substantially where it's now trading we know that apple's growth comes from its ecosystem and subscription revenues. these are accelerating, keeping them ahead of amazon for the moment however, after reading the piper piece, i think you have to green light to pay more for amazon, which unlike apple has no real beef with china. in short, i'm betting apple won't be the only company in the trillion dollar club for much longer because i think amazon's about to join right in stick with cramer. alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market
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american greed is back tonight with an all new episode. see how a crooked new york city cop protects and serves himself. cashing in with a high-tech burglary crew who terrorizes homes and businesses to the tune of $10 million hey, on a personal note about this one, i can't wait for it because it's produced by my friend and colleague scott cohn. way to go, scott okay we have turkish turmoil and it's not over because people are going to foment more and more negativity and use it as a reason to do some selling. it's called profit-taking, but there is not systemic risk you've got my list of what to buy. let the market bring them down to you we usually don't get these opportunities, and when we do, we should be thinking take them. don't run from the mall. run to the mall and get the best stuff. i like to say there is always a bull market some where i promise to try to find it just for you right here on "mad money. i'm jim cramer, and i'll see you tomorrow
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narrator: in this episode of "american greed"... kenny chatman catapults from personal trainer to mogul, running a drug-treatment business. stewart: he made a massive amount of money. we're talking millions of dollars. narrator: but something isn't right. chatman seems to have made it far too big, too fast. stewart: when you go from making five to six figures one year to making $10 million-plus the next year, that's an indicator. these are things that we look for when we're doing investigations. narrator: and chatman's halfway houses, or sober homes, are anything but sober.
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