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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  August 22, 2018 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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it's wednesday, august 22, 2018, "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square our guest host this morning, michelle girard from natwest markets. as becky mentioned, today marks the longest bull run in u.s. history. the s&p 500 has now been in a bull market for a record 3,453 days it is up 323% from the march 2009 low barring a 20% decline today we will continue that bull market run. >> 20% decline before we close today. >> exactly the january high -- >> not in the books yet.
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>> the level we hit yesterday was the record high. we are looking at concerns about the trump agenda given the guilty verdict on paul manafort and as well as the plea deal from michael cohen we are seeing weakness here. s&p 500 down by 8 points nasdaq looking to open lower by 20 points. in asia we saw a little bit of a mixed picture here the hang seng closing higher for the fourth straight session in a row. the shanghai showing concern as the trade delegation arrives in washington, d.c. and opens trade talks this week. shanghai closing lower by 0.7% european equities a mixed bag. close to the flat line across the board with the cac up by 0.2% the big gainer over in europe. as for treasury yields, watching that closely we saw interesting reactions
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over the past couple of days given trump's comments on jay powell we have the ten-year yield at 2.824% the two-year at 2.6 flat our top story is president trump's perm lawysonal lawyer t plea deal and his former campaign manager found guilty on charges. eamon javers has more. >> michael cohen told a judge yesterday that he committed a crime in coordination with and at the direction of the president of the united states that was a damaging thing for michael cohen to say it leads right to the president's doorstep the white house will have to respond to this. look at a breakdown of the different charges. we have two separate cases michael cohen pleading guilty yesterday to eight counts.
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he's pleading on tax evasion, bank fraud and the campaign finance violation, that is the key to this. that's the one where he says he paid off women who alleged they had sexual affairs with president trump at the direction of then candidate trump. so that's the one that involves the president of the united states paul manafort, the president's former campaign chairman was found guilty on eight charges yesterday of 18 that were brought against him by a jury. that involves tax fraud from 2010 to 2014, failure to file a foreign bank account, and bank fraud against citizens bank and bank of california all of that predating his involvement with the president of the united states rudy giuliani put out a statement yesterday in which he said none of this was an allegation of wrong doing. he said there is no allegation
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of any wrongdoing against the president in the government's charges against mr. cohen. he also said it's clear as the prosecutor noted mr. koe whipco actions reflect a pattern of lies and dishonesty over a significant period of time all of that damaging to the president of the united states he responded by saying there's no collusion between himself and the russians saying he feels badly for the two men involved last night lanny davis, michael cohen's attorney, went on television saying koe wycohen iy to tell prosecutors about the computer crime of hacking and whether mr. president trump knew about that crime and even cheered it on. so there may be more to come here as far as these michael cohen revelations. >> out of all the craziness yesterday, what surprised you the most, if anything? >> michael cohen we were looking to see whether
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he struck a plea deal. he did take that deal. the documents that we saw yesterday were silent on whether or not he's cooperating. you saw lanny davis go out last night and say that -- suggest broadly that there was a computer crime that michael cohen might know about and might be willing to talk to prosecutors about. that indicates to me this step with michael cohen was just the beginning, not the end >> it did not say he was cooperating but that doesn't necessarily preclude him from doing that >> that's right. >> when we heard from his lawyer later it sounds like they were fishing for a deal >> in many cases you plead guilty to the highest level of potential crime and jail time f you're cooperating you work that off, trying to get your jail time down as low as you can as a cooperator i'm also told it's possible that any cooperation agreement between cohen and the government
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is still under seal. there may be other documents related to this that we have not seen publicly. >> strange his lawyer was out on the air yesterday. it made it seem as if there were still things in play >> remember, cohen released tapes of his own conversations with the president of the united states that happened several weeks ago. so cohen has been changing his mind on where he stands on the president dramatically he used to be the guy who said i'll take a bullet for president trump. and then he came out and said forget that, my first loyalty is to my family and to my country then he started releasing these tapes he had of his conversations with the president. that's a dramatic turnaround for a guy privy to some of the president's most closely held secrets including these payments to women who alleged sexual affairs. that's not something you want to see if you're the white house. white house aides were almost entirely buttoned up in the west wing yesterday not commenting on this
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you get a sense they want the outside legal team to handle it and rudy giuliani to handle all of it. we'll see the impact on the president's ability to do business as usual in washington. >> thank you a lot to cover we'll talk to you again in the future joining us now is john carlin, former chief of staff to robert mueller at the fbi. thank you for joining us >> good morning. >> you should have a good idea about what this means for robert mueller's case whachlase. what do you think? >> let's take a step back. what we saw yesterday it unbelievable so 8 count convictions, for the mueller team a win is a win. incredibly significant verdict showing that the campaign manager of one of the major parties was lying about
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receiving millions and millions of dollar the from russian-linked interests was lying about it at time he was running the campaign then in a courtroom in another state in the case that is not lenked to the mueller investigation, it was passed over to a different set of prosecutors under a different chain, you had the personal lawyer of the president saying in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for office that -- and with the principal purpose of affecting the election that he committed a felony offense i can't recall a time in our history where we will quite a momentous day. >> let's start with one thing at a time manafort first president trump addressed the convictions against manafort briefly when he spoke with reporters last night as he was leaving air force one on his way to that campaign rally he said that while he feels badly for him, this is unconnected to him this doesn't have anything to do
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with the russian collusion charges. and that therefore this is still a witch hunt what is your response to that? >> well, i think if you look at the mueller investigation to date, in an incredibly short time for a federal investigation of this complexity that involves both millions of dollars moving about, hacking crimes, ant counterintelligence that cuts across borders, to date they have five guilty employees, pld 32 individuals, and this has nothing with being republicans or democrats, this is the russian fear of democracy, that it is a threat to the regime
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they brought 187 charges >> is there anything with manafort yesterday not in these convictions, but do you think there's more that comes from this? will manafort come to the table and offer insight that he may or may not have about what happened in that situation? >> yeah. that's a good question speculation as to whether or not manafort will come to the table. has it been the case in my career where after obtaining a conviction someone changes their mind about the wisdom of cooperating? absolutely that can be an awakening event even if he doesn't cooperate, just look at what they were convicted of it's serious if a campaign manager takes a job for free as campaign manager while desperate for money and tries to cash in on that job, that's what that case was all about. they're lying to all of us about accepting millions of dollars. there will be another trial this fall that really focuses on the fact that he was a foreign agent at the time and lying about that
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fact stay tuned for the trial coming up this fall of manafort if he doesn't cooperate in the interim. >> rudy giuliani is already making the point that the truth is not the truth all the time. there will be different versions of the truth out there how credible of a witness would either of these people be? manafort and cohen >> you try to make observations, you always try to stay out of politics but i've always thought the truth is the truth that's how i was raised and brought up i think what we have now is it's out of speculation appropriately the investigators and prosecutors let the facts and the charges speak for themselves, they're not doing press conferences. they're not leaking information to the media what happened yesterday, it's in court now. we had a jury of peers under our american criminal justice system that provides more protections than any in the world find
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manafort diltitguilty it's not speculation or allegation, he's guilty of eight felony counts. had mr. cohen come into court, swear under oath to the judge and accept a guilty plea -- as you pointed out earlier in your conversation with eamon, there's no cooperation deal. he doesn't get any benefit for cooperating, he pled guilty saying i committed a felony and i did it at the direction of the president. that's unrelated to the mueller charge, but that's very significant. >> thank you for your time we appreciate it >> thank you the u.s. and china resume trade talks in washington. but expectations for progress are low, this after president trump told reuters on monday he did not anticipate much to come from the meetings. the talks today and tomorrow
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will be held by lower level officials including the treasury undersecretary and china's commerce vice minister the u.s. is reportedly nearing a big break through in nafta negotiations with mexico that could pave the way for canada to rejoin talks politico says the trump administration could announce a handshake deal with mexico as early as tomorrow. let's talk a bit about retailer lowe's, they're out with earnings. on an adjusted basis, the company earned $2.07, higher than the $2.02 the street was expecting. revenue also boating 20$20.9 billion verse the 20.7 billion the street was expecting. if you look at in terms of guidance, they cut the full-year forecast they are also saying that their total sales are expected to now for the fiscal year be up by 4.5% they will be taking some actions
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like aggressively trying to rationalize store inventory, getting rid of some lower performing inventory while they say they will try to invest in increasing the depth of high velocity items they're talking about diluted earnings per share of $4.50 to $4.60. the street estimate is 5.45, that's on an adjusted basis. they say operating income will be down by 180 basis points. we'll continue to watch this that stock now off by 2.25%. >> the stock going into this earnings report, reminiscent of a home depot scenario. this is not as solid as home depot, home depot beat on all metrics, but they're up 16% going into this quarter. >> closer to its high than home depot is home depot dominated the space for so long. it's hard to see the reaction.
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it's a huge gulf between the street's fiscal year number and what they're giving you there, this big charge, closing orchard supply stores, which was an old sears subsidiary >> when you talk about investing, it's a strategy that paid off for walmart they had incredible numbers based on the investments they were making. we'll hear from target today and dig into that. the question is what kind of patience do you get from investors while you make some of those changes. facebook pulling down more than 650 fake accounts linked to russia and iran saying they were involved in coordinated inauthentic behavior fireeye first spotted the behavior saying the accounts were promoting iran's geopolitical agenda around the world. twitter and alphabet also
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purging accounts coordinated with the same political network. we have rich steinberg with us and our guest host, michelle girard is still with us. good morning to you. rich, let's kick it off with you. we saw the futures react to the paul manafort verdict as well as the michael cohen plea deal. in your view, is the trump agenda key to this bull market run? the continuation, i should say >> i do think it is. i think the west virginia rally after all this horrendous news yesterday is indicative of the deflection that the trump administration will continue to have he was on target on his message. i think the markets will ignore this for the most part if you stuck with where earnings
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growth is, where the economy is, you were paid to take those risks. >> focus on the fundamentals karen that's a message you always come on air with. at the same time when you look at valuations, a lot of people say valuations don't matter too much but the longer we go in this bull market don't they matter more and more? are you concerned about the valuations particularly in areas like technology? >> the evaluations right now i would say are probably fair. earnings continue to tick higher that's keeping valuations in check. i think it's absolutely a farising, and earnings just continue to move higher. despite all the talk about trade and these political events earnings are moving higher that's what investors have to keep their eye on the earnings are getting better
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this will not derail the way companies are doing business >> there's no doubt about it, earnings have come through better than expected if you go back to when first quarter -- in the first quarter when earnings season kicked off, mid-january, the s&p is up 2%. from the beginning of the current reporting season, july 12th, the market is up less than 2% so 25% earnings growth, and the market barely forced a 2% earnings growth. does this tell you maybe this won't impress the market even if it continues from here >> i think it's a good point the -- we'll have to limp through some of this the other huge problem that we've had last year and even this year, there's a word mana, which means pervasive superpower that's where the returns have been this year
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40% of the returns have come from microsoft, apple, netflix and amazon until we got money flowing back into value names and start to lengthen the participation in this market, we'll limp along at best barring huge issues in the fall earnings are coming through next year we'll go from 160 to $170. it will depend on what multiple people give it if the fed stops raising rates at the end of this year and we can have that 18 multiple, you can see high single digit returns for next year but it will be limping along and grinding from here easy money has been played >> limping along into the rest of the year. how does the economy look into the rest of the year it's fraught with challenges when it comes to trade talks that are ongoing as well as the fed raising interest rates >> i have to say, it is not
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limping along as we move into the second half. the economy has great momentum most estimates for growth in the second half of the year have come up towards us, looking at 3% in the second half, which is really the best economic performance since 2006 i'm encouraged by what i'm seeing on the consumer side. that's helped because the job market is so strong. i'm watchful about the impact of tariffs, trade escalations, what that might do to discourage businesses in any way from continuing to invest and hire, but there's no sign of that discourse coming through and having an economic impact. i don't think the fed continuing to normalize poses that much of a challenge. that was one question i guess i was going to ask karen was about the fact at what point does the fed become worried at this point i don't see that as a problem for the markets >> we have to leave it there thank you. coming up, a bayiig day for
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retail earnings. we'll dig into the results from lowe's which is trading lower after posting numbers. target reports in the next 15 minutes, and ceo brian cneorll will be here in an "squawk box" exclusive interview. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade,
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welcome back lowe's just out with its second quarter earnings report. joining us now is brian neagle from oppenheimer there's a lot to digest here looking at the numbers they beat, 207 versus the 202 the street was expecting better than expected revenue then they talk about the guidance and different moves they're going to make. >> i agree there is a lot to digest here. i look at this and i think the results were good in q2, but my initial take is marvin ellison is getting to work what i did is read the release he's streamlining this business which needs to happen. they're divesting orchard supply they're divesting that
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he talks in the release about rationalizing inventory. so getting back to products that sell well. so there's going to be near-term pain associated with those efforts. >> talking about 180 basis points lost in terms of the operating margin for right now >> that's right. >> you are looking at longer term saying this is the proper thing to have done we were talking about how walmart made investments that seemed to pay off. you think give them some time, this is the right thing to do. >> yeah. i don't think it's much time at first i think the market digests this today we had the conference call at 9:00 a.m. and then the stock rebounds as we digest this the moves today are not that drastic. there was concern that there would need to be a significant reinvestment we're not hearing that yet they'll have their analysts meet in december. maybe something more comes as of right now it's tweaking. it's cleaning up the business model. we start to see the benefits of
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this in the next couple of quarters >> lowe's or home depot? >> home depot is the better company. lowe's has the better stock. >> because it's a turnaround because marvin ellison will get in there, make changes, you know, help the stock >> that's right. i talked about this a lot. now you have marvin ellison coming to run lowe's he knows how to run stores the missing piece of lowe's has been store level execution you have a 5% deficit in the operating margins for lowe's vers hove versus home depot. that's a big gap they do the same thing >> inventory management is a big deal you talk about how in the release they'll get rid of slower selling things, making sure they have more stuff that sells well even just supply issues, making sure they have what they're offering that's an issue i noticed in lowe's versus home depot just having the stuff on the shelves available for purchase that's a bigger investment
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>> i think that's key. one of the things that encourages me here more is that it's not a traffic issue customers are coming to lowe's stores they're just not buying as much as they should once there. it's a conversion issue. so people are at stores, but the product is not there that's much easier to fix than a traffic problem. you look at jcpenney where marvin was previously, that's a traffic problem. >> thank you very much when we come back, we're expecting results from target. we'll bring you those numbers and our exclusive interview with brian cornell. that's coming up at the top of th hour. you always pay your insurance on time.
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welcome back target just out with its numbers. it looks like target is coming in with adjusted numbers of $1.47 a share. 7 cents better than the street was expecting. revenue above expectations comp sales overall were up 6.5%. target saysthat's the best they've seen in terms of comps in 13 years. if you break that down that's a comp store sales number of 4.9 better, better than the expected 4% growth. digital sales were up 41%. that comes compared to 32% growth over a year ago continuing to see comps at the digital level rise generally when you get to bigger numbers you see smaller comps. the company saying for the back half of 2018 it's raising its outlook for comparable sales and earnings per share the mid point of the guidance
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range, $1.20, that represents growth of more than 20%. strong numbers across the board. i would say this is a similar situation to what we saw with walmart. investments that have paid off overtime brian cornell has been there for several years making investments and trying to put these things to work and beefing up offering that they have the partnership with shipped, you can order things online that the stores fulfill things like delivery, where if you show up you can order online, they'll let you show up in the parking lot to pick it up some of those issues are things that successful retailers have been doing check out those shares, up more than 6%. >> when walmart crossed, some analysts were concerned that those gains were made at the expense of other retailers the expectation was widely a stronger quarter, but could target have given up some to walmart. and here we have target
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performing on its own. >> it seems the pie is growing a bit. interesting that this move in the premarket is happening it's getting the stock above the 2015 highs i think the bar was quite here the stock rallied well they were good enough on top of the high expectations to have this good response dollar general also doing well >> all of this news is reinforcing the optimism that i am seeing and then hearing from companies about how the consumer is looking heading into the second half of the year and into the holiday shopping season. the economy has a lot of momentum that's the consistent theme we hear >> i would say there's winners and losers in retail even though we thought we had shaken some of that out, this earnings season has proven you will have expectations, it's
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tough to jump over them, and not every retailer can do that even with a strong consumer you need strong management >> you do. you have to be looking ahead you have to sort of innovate in terms of how you compete with online retailers i also think it's interesting that with lowe's the foreign guidance was an opportunity. one thing we're watching a bit is the housing sector. the consumer is strong, but the housing sector looks like it paused over the summer, whether that's the increase in mortgage rates, home prices >> is that a good thing for the lowe's and home depots of the world? if you're not going to buy a new house, maybe refurbish your house? >> consumers do have more cash in their pockets it's not just the tax cuts it's better wage growth. more individuals are earning with the new jobs, earning money that can be spent at these stores i wuas thinking where home
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builders might be struggling, companies like lowe's and home depot would be doing better. >> from a stock perspective today, sector perspective, consumer discretionary hit a record high. poised for that today with another batch of strong earnings it will be interesting to see how this helps the market. >> with traditional retail, one question is everybody got inventories lean everyone kind of had a big scare a couple years ago they're benefiting from that still, and now people are actually buying clothes, you have pricing power because of that so the question is how long that kind of gets you buy rather than just seeing organic top line growth >> tax benefits, too retailers have been the ones who played in this arena we should remember these were the same companies that would have been severely hurt by the border adjustment tax, if that was the tax plan that went through instead. they dodged a bullet there
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>> they did. i also think there's emphases on the tax cuts i think to some extent a misbelief about the fact that this is temporary. once the tax cuts wane, the consumer will fall off we hear that a lot i think it's more than that. the tax cuts to individuals were important. far more important were the tax cuts to business which i think set the stage for the employment situation that has improved so much which will provide longer lasting benefits to the consumer in the form of wage growth and more jobs that will sustain this strength in consumer spending even after that tax cut. >> target talking about the effective income tax rate from continuing operations, 21.8% compared with 31.4% last year. that does not take away from the strong numbers they have terms of traffic being strong, comp store sales being strong, for
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retailers a lot of things are working right. >> for companies in general, the tax cuts have been a huge advantage. it allowed them to focus on their businesses, to focus on their investments that will lead to longer lasting and productive growth >> we'll talk more about this in a bit. we will speak with target's ceo, brian cornell in just a few minutes about the quarter. shares of la-z-boy are soaring this morning, reporting better than expected first quarter earnings and revenue same-store sales were up 3%. urban outfitters also in the news second quarter results topping forecasts. shares are up 4.5% double digit growth across all brands thanks to fewer promotions zynga signing a multi-year licensing deal with disney to produce a new "star wars" mobile game.
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saing saing zynga shares up almost 10%. coming up, we'll have the interview with brian cornell, more on president trump's tariffs. and legal trouble in the trump circle stay tuned you're tcngwahi "squawk box" on cnbc
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welcome back to "squawk box. in political news that could impact the markets, michael cohen pleading guilty to multiple counts of tax fraud and campaign violations. the president's former campaign manager, paul manafort was found guilty of multiple fraud charges. joining us now is chuck gabriel capital alpha partners president. our guest host today, michelle girard chuck, welcome to the table. good to see you. >> thank you hello to michelle, too >> i know you two used to work together >> chuck, let's figure out what this does mean for the markets yesterday the markets gave back some gains on this
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this morning some continued concern about that we are talking about a pretty small move when you look at things overall how do you try and game all of this because it's a lot to digest >> it is a lot to digest markets certainly are taking it in stride. that's probably appropriate. certainly trump land did not convict the president. but there's some new wildcards now. it was quite a day when the market was crowning a new reigning bull and reaching new intraday highs at the same time that the president's fixer and former campaign chairman are both pleading guilty to eight counts i think cohen is the more interesting question for wall street he pled guilty we didn't have a full court trial. we don't know what evidence he has. and the risk there would be that he could absolutely cooperate with mueller he's got a former hillary clinton fixer, lanny davis out saying he wants to cooperate, he
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will have interesting information. so the left -- the bloggers on the left, the social media, they're enthralled they're convinced this guarantees a tear use impeachment drive. the liberals and progressives are more energized coming out of this for the street, it just does something we warned about a week or so ago. you know, the markets have been sanguine about a number of things the mueller trial, all the evidence he's putting together also on the trade issue, i think they become insulated if not quite okay with the president, but willing to give hem leewaim. the concerns about a government shutdown and a border wall funding. all of those were sailing in, now they have to worry about tail risk in september, that's when the markets and voters focus on the elections after labor day. >> i think it's going to be a noisy september.
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i guess even looking beyond that then what might all of this mean as you look ahead to the midterms as you said come september the voters will pay attention, the markets will pay attention to what the voters are thinking how do you think this plays out in november? >> i think september will be important, michelle, because again it -- the markets already assume that the house is probably going to go democratic. and this will probably help that cause. certainly the left will be more energized coming out of this it's interesting this buried the news of a republican congressman, duncan hunter in san diego, pleading guilty to fraud, putting yet another republican seat at risk. the bigger risk is if we have a bad september and the president -- you have to worry about the president's counter respons response might he pardon one of these two individuals. might he bank hard on trade or the border wall funding.
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he likes to dominate news cycles as september goes, the issue could be whether this reaches those hard to reach places where the senate will be decided if the senate is seen at risk after labor day, the markets will have more to discount because the trump agenda will be more at risk >> barring all those political implications, i'm struggling to figure out what the market would be attempting to price in and discount, even if you follow it down that line of a serious impeachment proceeding under a democratic house what is the forward going trump administration economic agenda it's hard line on trade. you have the tax cuts in the books. you have this new regulatory approach a year ago people were worried about this appearance of the president being in jeopardy because the tax bill wasn't passed yet what now are we trying to price? >> i heard you say earlier this feels closer to a top.
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it adds an additional element of risk again, if it is serious evidence that the president and michael cohen willfully violated federal campaign finance laws, it's a much more serious problem. other than that, we're heading more knowingly towards a likely democratic house and an effort towards impeachment, nevertheless the senate probably remaining narrowly republican. the president's agenda remaining intact the markets increasingly comfortable with the idea of the president really focusing more on china and moving towards bilateral deals with canada, mexico, the eu nation. i'm with you markets should not overreact but this is some additional s e saleisaltail risk that was not on the screen. particularly the notion of republicans possibly losing the
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senate if we have a bad september, we think that's the bit of the deal break their could help the cause of a correction. >> chuck, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you coming up, target out with quarterly results beating the top and bottom line sending sharessoaring in the premarket we'll dig you are through the rt with an anysalt. at the top of the hour, brian cornell joins us in a "squawk box" exclusive at&t provides edge-to-edge intelligence, covering virtually every part of your healthcare business. so that if she has a heart problem & the staff needs to know, they will & they'll drop everything can you take a look at her vitals? & share the data with other specialists yeah, i'm looking at them now. & they'll drop everything hey. & take care of this baby yeah, that procedure seems right. & that one too. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business,
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target's second quarter earnings beating at the top of the bottom lean. brian kornell will join us in just a few minutes right now is charlie o' shay from moody what do you think of the quarter? >> really good quarter all of a sudden you start to see the return and the monumental returns when you do it right target is some of the several retailers of more flexible that are starting to generate serious
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action >> we had strong results from walmart and target, where is that share coming from >> i think it is coming from the lower end of the credit scale. we got 20 names that we concern to be distressed they're the givers, nordstrom, home depot and t.j.maxx. >> who are those 20 names? >> you got neiman marcus and there are some scales down there. they're donating sales across categories they can't make investments like home depot -- they're in a tough spot when we see strong reports of some of these large guys, what happens to the debt of those distresses do they get worse? >> it is a barbell and it is
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done on an individual bases. i am going to use the great business school analogy, if you are an isolated widgets, all you sell are widgets that's what we are seeing. we are starting to see a lot of separation and we use a barbell now and teeter totter analogy. the richer is getting ripper chd the poorer is getting poorer >> what's the investment that target made that's the best place that they had. what's generating for them of the most traction? >> i would say the private brands that the company announced in february of '17 i was in the room and it was similar to the walmart meeting a couple of years before that where target announced we'll make investments and it is going to cost us money but here is the
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pay offs and stocks got hit. these invest ments are paid off target fall into a -- the store was on sale too often after the breach and there was not a lot of compelling fashion in the store. brian and his team comes in and reinvigorated the stores and spent a lot of money in the stores and invested in a lot of brands they got products that nobody else has >> it is not just competing here online presence or making it easier for consumers to order online and taking the online retail but it is carving in with the private brand that's bringing in consumers. >> online would be one b one a to me is the private brands the number that was announced after q 4 were 70% online sales
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had been stoped in the stores. target got a late start and it did not control the website until a few years ago. as we know mobile is becoming the preferred mode of purchasing online and target has been ahead of the game in mobile. we are seeing a pay off in investments and this is an example for investors. the target and the walmart and home depot of the world and t.j.x, it does not happen over the year the brooke and morter guys are doing the same thing >> charlie o'shea, thank you >> michelle, your thoughts based on these numbers
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>> i keep on saying i am beating the drum, the economy is in good shape. it is a supply side business expansion which is really important when we talk about inflation implications and more importantly for the feds i don't think it is the kind of growth that's going to make me worry and the feds is going to richla go up and put the economy at risk >> thank you >> thank you for having me >> brian cornell is in the house talking about tariffs and competing with amazon. all of this and more after ts eak.hi i'm carl and i'm a broker. do you offer $4.95 online equity trades? great question. see, for a full service brokerage like ours, that's tough to do. schwab does it. next question. do you offer a satisfaction guarantee? a what now? a satisfaction guarantee. like schwab does. man: (scoffing) what are you teaching these kids? ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs,
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"squawk box" exclusive
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we talk to brian cornell we'll ask him of the state of the business and the state of the nation this morning we are following the dramatic news development related to two people related to president trump during the time of his campaign. michael cohen is guilty of his charges and manafort is guilty of financial violations. more than 60 accounts related to russia. that story and more of your corporate headlines as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now live from the beating heart of business, new york, this is "squawk box. good morning everybody, welcome back to "squawk box," we are live, i am rebecca quick and joe
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and andrew is off. brian cornell is here with us for an exclusive interview we have a lot to talk about with brian and we'll jump into it just a moment. a quick look at the futures. future is down, s&p future is down by three and nasdaq is down by less than a point this is coming as we continue to digest the political news yesterday. you will know if you are just waking up this morning and were not paying attention yesterday, let me give you some of that news paul manafort has been convicted of bank fraud and michael cohen pleading guilty to violating cal pain laws and facebook and twitter have taken down information campaigns that were tied to iran and russia.
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target is releasing second quarter earnings beat the top and the bottom line. ahead of what the street had been anticipating and that stock has been sharply higher this morning. we have been watching this the last i checked, it was up 5% and up by $4.23 cents to $87.50. joining us now is brian cornell. thank you for being here >> we just had ananalyst looke at this closely and made the same conclusion when looking through these numbers that there are companies like target and walmart have made some massive investments and those are starting to pay off. is that how you would assess these things what's happening here? >> you are seeing winners and losers right now in retail we took a path that says we are going to invest in the long-term. several years ago we decided we are going to invest in our stores and invest our brands and invest in our team and
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capabilities those are starting to mature you are seeing the reaction from the consumer in our guests and those show up in our recent earning report when you are talking about new fulfillment of opportunity, you are talking about competing to amazon in the world. what have you done >> becky, we are focusing on three areas, one, we want to make sure we provide a great experience that's really inspiring when you are in our stores, that's why we are remodelling and opening up new stores, offering new brands to our guests we want to make sure it is convenient and easy to shop, allowing you to drive in our parking lots and a couple of minutes i put that order right in your trunk or our ship shoppers where we have personal shoppers across the country where you go to the ship app and you place that order and i got a mom shopping for you who's
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bringing that order for you within an hour >> i tried out last week but i was skeptical, it did work exactly as anticipated >> when you say ship, it is shipt. >> it is >> it is something you have to do today because jeff bezos have instructed consumers we can have whatever we want when ever we want >> we want to make sure if you shop at one of our stores, it is a great in store experience and we provide great service when you are there. we are in every neighborhood in america. we have 1800 stores. we are new urban neighborhoods it is easy to come to our stores and shop come by an hour later, you can pick up that order or drive-in to one of our parking lots or have it deliver right to your home >> we are trying to blend great
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experience and convenience >> we just talked to one of the analysts, one of the things he thinks is important is having a private label. what do you do to bring in unique brands to the store what have you done >> we listen to consumers and understand what our guests are looking for. one of our core case ability has been our design and development team that has for years done a terrific job bringing unique brands to our assortments. we keep on introducing great new brands that are unique to target and differentiated if you want that brand for your kids, you can always find it at target we are continuing to make sure we bring great designs and great quality at a great value that's found at target. >> i asked you when you were here to take a victory lap and you said no, no rest for the worries on this.
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i was looking at the cap x numbers that you put out on release, how much are you planning to spend this year? >> we'll spend about $3.5 million and we'll do it again the next couple of years we feel great of today's results anddelivered in 2005. i expect next year we'll remodel more stores, we'll open up new urban stores on college campuses and introduce new and exciting brands and we'll continue to mature next year you will see more of what we have delivered this year >> $3.5 billion this year, how much did you spend on cap x? >> about three billion dollars and two-thirds of that is focused on our stores and remodelling our stores and we have remodelled 300 stores this year and we'll continue that pace we have opened up 30 new forms
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in new york. we opened up in the lower east side and a great campus college store and florida state campus we are getting in new neighborhoods where we have not before we'll continue to invest in technology to make it really convenient to shop with us no matter how you want to shop that day. >> let's talk about the macro effe effect out there ruben fitting of traffic growth, how much of that and obviously you made a lot of changes, how much of that speaks to the health of the consumers? >> i have been doing this for a long time, it is the healthiest environment we have ever seen. importantly for us we are building market share in every category >> who are you stealing from >> i think we are picking up more footsteps when we see traffic up 6.5% and stores
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growing at 5%. becky, yesterday people were saying stores are dead and nobody is going to invest in stores i remember back in february of 2017 when we announced we are going to spend $7 billion of capital over three years and take a billion dollars in operating income and invest in our teams and brands and providing more value >> the street did not like that at first >> they did not. i remember it was february 28th of 2017 and when we pushed the announcement across the wire and i watched you and joe onset. $7 billion in capital in stores and a billion dollars in wages and training and development in the brands, it must be a typo here >> i don't remember that >> what was our reaction did we trash it at the time or did we think it is a good idea >> why is target investing in stores after that release, i had to walk across the street and talk
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to investors and explain to them we were investing in the long-term, in the health of our business not just for the next three years but to make sure the iconic brand, target is here 30 years from now we are starting to see the results from that long-term vision commit to the importance of stores. most importantly investing in our team >> does this buy you room with investors or credibility with investors to say now we are going to spend more and you should be okay with that do you think that buys you the street credit to do it >> we are focused to make sure we get the right return on the investment capital we are seeing returns over 14% those projects we are investing in are providing the right return for our shareholders. as you saw with our eps this quarter, it grew almost 20%. we are seeing a great consumer response, unprecedented traffic. as we go back and look, we have never seen traffic growth like this >> stores are driving growth
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again up to 41% and brands are keki contacting with our guests all of those invest ments are working in hand in hand. >> who do you think about when it is your competitors, who's your top or three? >> i got a big beauty business and apparel business and i am big in home. we got a huge household essential business, we are in food and beverage. we compete with everyone >> come on, it is walmart and amazon, right? >> those are two big players, i think of them every single day we measure ourselves against their performance. we are fighting for those trips and clicks and right now we are starting to build momentum >> how are you positioning for the holiday? >> what are you thinking based at this opponent and what do you see and how do you get to those higher number ssnumbers
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>> we are going to deliver the same in the back half that we did in the first half. we are expecting a strong holiday season where he well prepa we are well-prepared we think our stores are going to look great going into the holiday season and we'll have capablilities to make it easy fo consumers. >> does that mean you are stocking up with a lot of inventories and expecting this to be a bumper year for the holidays >> we'll certainly be prepared where we know we got this big opportunity in front of us >> because of toys r' us bankrupting. >> we'll make sure we are taking more of our share than market shares >> let's talk about trade and tariffs. if there is anything that may concern people dealing with this
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issue, tariff is a big deal for you. >> anything that raise prices for the american family is a concern for us we make sure we are price competitive and drive profitability in our system but we are watching it carefully we want to make sure it does not impact the economy >> what would it mean if the $500 billion on trade that we have with china if all the things we import, if we were to slap a tariff on all of that what would it mean for your bottom line and prices in your store? >> we think it is manageable to us we got alternatives and flexibilities and agilities in our system >> brian, i want to thank you for your time. we appreciate you. >> thank you, take care. >> when we come back, two men who one served in trump's inner
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circle michael cohen pled guilty on eight charges and paul manafort is guilty on bank charges. the s&p 500 is up 23% from its financial lows we'll have more on the markets in just a bit. stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. introducing the 2018 c-class sedan, coupe and cabriolet. the thrills keep getting better. lease the c300 sedan for $399 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.
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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. here is what's making headlines at this hour, shares of lowe's are under the market those shares are down by two and three quarters of a percent right now. both new purchases applications and refinance activities posted gains. another housing news we'll be getting july existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, r l realtors expected to show that
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sales rose 6% last month manafort is found guilty of multiple charges eamon javers has more now of the story that's rocking america >> reporter: good morning again, mi michael cohen told a judge he committed the crime and at the direction of the president of the united states. it was a dramatic day full of development yesterday. let's wake you through the case that is unfolded yesterday the michael cohen's plea deal. he pled guilty to bank fraud and tax evasion and a campaign finance violations that was done in coordination with and at the direction of the president involving payments to women to maintaining their silence alleged sexual affairs of donald trump. paul manafort for president
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trump also is found guilty by a jury on eight of 18 counts those involved in tax frauds and failure to file a foreign bank account, report for 2012 of bank fraud and related to two particular cases of citizen bank and the bank in california the former closest insider of president trump. the president landed in west virginia speaking to reporters all of this and expressing sympathy for the two men involved here is what he said >> it does not involved me but it is a sad thing that has happened it had nothing to do with russian collusion. this started as russian collusion and it had nothing to do it is a witch hunt that it is a disgrace it had nothing to do as they started outlooking for russians involving in our campaign. i feel badly for paul manafort
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it had nothing to do with russian collusion. >> the problem for the president is landy davis who was the attorney for michael cohen on television last night saying that cohen is willing to talk to prosecutors of more than just these allegations contained in the criminal information yesterday. davis suggesting that cohen is happy to tell everything he knows of the computer crime of hacking and whether or not trump knew ahead of time about that crime and this morning lanni davis says michael cohen does not want a pardon from president trump and would not accept it if it was offered that removed some of the leverage that mr. trump had over cohen. the question is how will trump respond to all of this big question raised for the white house going forward. >> thank you very much the ceo of this company, not this company but the one you
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will see in this chart in a second the ceo of this company, take a look at the chart, it is up 43% in a year and doubling in five in the latest round, one legendary investor dumped his entire stake in the company. we'll ask the ceo in just a little bit >> how old was warren buffett when he purchased his first stock. the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues no-good break. gooood break. i'm so sorry we can't make your barbecue. i'm just sick about it. aflac!? different kind of sick. if i can't work after surgery, how am i gonna pay my rent? all these bills? aflac! oh, aflac! and they pay you cash in just one day. see how aflac helps cover everyday expenses
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the answer to today's question how old was warren buffett when he purchased his first stock the answer is 11-year-old. the u.s. and china resume trade talks in washington today. expectations for progress are low after president trump told reuters on monday that he did not expect much will come to the meeting. wilbur ross met with the chinese
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partner back in june >> in other trade news, the united states reportedly near a breakthrough in nafta negotiations with mexico that they could pave the way for canada to rejoin talks politico says the trump administration could allow a handshake deal with mexico as early as tomorrow. coming up, today marks the second stage of the longest bull run in u.s. industry equity future is under a little bit of pressure. dow is off 32 points right now we'll get more on your market and more on manafort and tart.ge more on so much as "squawk box" rolls on news flash: nobody's perfect. for drivers with accident forgiveness, liberty mutual won't raise your rates due to your first accident. switch and you could save $782
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♪ good morning everybody, welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at times square.
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target shares up sharply in the premarket trading today. target beats estimates both the top and bottom line. brian cornell tells us retailer's long-term investments, those investments they have been making have paid off. >> several years ago we decided to invest in our stores and brand and our team and invest in fulfillment capabilities they're starting to mature and at scale and you are seeing reactions from our consumers and our guests >> target's second quarter comparable sales rise was 6.5% and it was best in 13 years. >> mike, you said that stock was trading this morning near the highs. >> yes, it was hovering below these highs from three years ago under 85 looks like it is going to vault at the open. >> the fed will be release tg minutes of its recent meeting of this afternoon
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the central bank did not raise rates in the two-day meeting slack technology has been valued at $7.1 billion. that's up from previous. the company is a maker of a popular m popular messaging application. it has more users. will investors see this bull market run out of gas any time soon michael santoli is joining us more we gave don grief the other day, there are reasons. >> yes >> not to be afraid but to be thinking, to be aware. >> to be honest with you, i don't think the case is all that persuasive that we are at an
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ultimate top you don't see a lot of those things lining up that you expect to see at this time. we pick apart the premise of this idea that this is some kind of geriatric here is what i would point to among those. one is everything is so good right now, the fundamentals are basically all and everybody agrees it is pretty good 4% on employment and consumer confidence and extremely high and profit margins at peak that at a starting point not that easy to build upon. if you have started to put money into stocks, unemployment is 4%, you do a whole lot worse than you start when it is 8%. that's the way cycles work that does not mean things are about to end any time soon stocks are not cheap they become inexpensive because earnings are so strong valuation is not the reason that it is going to fall apart.
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the median stock is not a bargain right now. here is the chart that i think you will have people, a lot are looking at the action yesterday with the market. it gets there half a second by half a point and you lose it i don't necessarily think there is anything magic of that pattern. if you look at previous markets of 2007, you have this big momentum high and you decline and you fought your way backup to the old highs >> that's scary when you say it that way >> it is funny that we are sitting here talking about this in the nasdaq. >> sure. >> it reminds me back in the 1999, god, we are getting old, '99, becky was four there was this euphoria that everybody is buying stocks
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it does not feel that way. you guys are knocking holes in the market and holding your nose and buying stocks. >> we have been bullish in that show >> everything is great in terms of -- >> in terms of sentiments and the corporate balance sheets are different and there is no comparison, right? >> there is no comparison in the aggregates and there is no comparison in the largest txd-- >> you can name them in 1999 -- >> cmgi, all the acronyms. >> cramer made that point last night on "mad money," that there are still so many haters out there. >> that's true the problem is i don't know that you will ever get a once in a lifetime craziest market you will ever see. i may be scarred because in middle of 2007, i wrote a cover
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story for barron, where is the little guy he's not in the market and there is all these skepticisms it was a month before. >> that's interesting. >> that was a different cycle, you know, there was a lot going on >> that's why i love you, mike you fess up to anything you say. >> it is funny >> that's an excellent example that other people should follow. >> mike, stick around, joining this conversation and joining us now, aaron gibbs and ryan payne, president of payne and capital management we are not going to ask you of your ages, erin and ryan that aside, erin, start with you, do you feel this is a market that people love to say when the media is talking about all time highs, that's when you sell it. it is like being on a cover of
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the magazine as an athlete and you are going to break your ankle the next year. >> the most noticeable is the chart hitting the all time highs and fundamentals are different and valuations are different when you look at small and mid cap and how they are behaving, that's different we are talking more about the market is talking about the dow and s&p 500, those large caps have been winners. for us, full range of data point that's only one that's similar and the other ten are different. to me that does not indicate that this is a top >> 2007 and 1999, fake companies driving everybody, 2007 was all house ing and leverage we know now it was another fake economy. this economy feels real. >> yeah. >> it does >> i would say the only concern
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for us it is definitely driven by growth more than value. you don't see quite as much breath as we absolutely love we could see these up and down sort of side way patterns for a while as long as growth is just so much favored. right now when you look at the s&p 500 growth verses value, growth is out performing but almost 12% year to date. that's the biggest threat that we have seen since we have been tracking style i for us we would like to see a lit more breath and more value stocks holding up and doing better to keep this market going. >> is that a reason to be skeptical of the bull run? >> it goes back to what mike was saying it is geriatric in terms of the way the market is going on
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nothing in the mark, there is like $9 trillion sitting in cash right now. nobody has been in the market for ten years. most investors missed the boat i have to think that once we get pass the trade war and whatever trade concessions that we get, you can have a big situation to be upside here i think that's the biggest risk we have in the market today. >> i don't think that's inconsistent with this kind of late move. it is a late '90s feeling. you have this wall and we have to get above of it again, that's tactical stuff if 2019 earning existence comes through as they are now on paper, we don't get the typical erosion of forecast, erin, there is not a lot to argue with >> we have not had any erosions this year, we are up to 23% and we get 9% next year. the revenue aspect with looking solid.
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we are looking at 5.5% next year if we get that, it is not the bull market. >> what is the typical pattern in august of any given year, what is typical these days >> you normally lose a few percentage point for anticipating growth for the following calendar of the year >> you lose it it in the first quarter and it pops backup >> got it. >> except for some of the really bad years, you lost it the first half of the year and it never came back. >> you have been guilty of over estimating or under estimating the risks of certain things, '99 and 2000s. everything is fine and internet is going to be okay and everything is fine we are under estimating the ability of things to remain open for a while. i think we have been so scarred for the last 15 years that we can't believe that things will continue there must be something wrong. >> that's what blows my mind of
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this whole market. i deal with investors everyday they don't believe it. >> can you blame them? >> they have been beaten up twice massive sly >> it is scar tish shosuetissues >> come on, look at the numbers. >> everybody was happy at the time '97 and '98, the world was going to end, it was a global margin called twice this internet stuff was crazy. >> which it was. >> people were not comfortable and even though it was a lot of easy money for the last couple of years how could short term rates be kept at 3% it is too low. that's what you heard in the middle of the '90s >> now we hear zero.
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>> when we look back, this is so easy being invested in the last decade but it was really hard. >> erin and ryan, thank you very much, a good discussion and we did not get to the cohen and manafort stuff >> thank god >> you can sum up america right there. >> coming up >> safe zone >> we showed you this stock earlier this hour. take a look at this chart, it had quite a run and it is not a household name yet, why is it attracting investors to this business the big ceo is joining us and facebook and twitter are moving hundreds of accounts linked to russia and iran. we'll go inside in just a bit. "squawk box" will be right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box. we hit the record high on the s&p 500 in the noon hour yesterday just before the manafort news came out that was basically the top tick for that market, melissa
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we are seeing a market down or not down to the extent that somebody predicted >> it will be the longest bull market in history starting today. >> welcome back. >> it is sate that the vast majority of the world's data was created the past few years and it is clear that interconnected devices and sensors were throwing off more data than before another to know what it all means. we show you the stock arlier, it had quite a run joining us now, welcome to the show, scott. >> good morning. >> 60% of your revenue comes from u.s. primary insurers, what are you doing for them terms of crunching the data? >> we help insurers of the number of core process with insurance and under writing and claims including suppressing claims and help carriers to
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replace their reassurance contracts and anticipate the kind s of things that are black swani swanish. >> you are doing actuary stuff, too. >> it started out that way big data methodology we have quite to make it sensible for insurance company >> can you give us an example of how big data have changed the accessed risks for the insurance industry >> sure. if you were to file a claim on your homeowner insurance policy and as soon as it officially become a claim inside the system of your insurance company, they'll abstract the data and send it to us. this is all in the machine, the machine transaction where they give us the abstract of the data inside your claim and what we do
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is in the context of over a billion claim and we analyze that to figure out whether or not if there is a fraud going on here if the claim and fraudulent is a particular claim. >> how do you know that? >> how does it work? >> basically we are looking for patterns it could be, for example, that somebody who is the same individual but is actually identified differently has taken out insurance multiple times against the same asset now they fraudulently claimed that something has happened to that asset >> if i file as becky quick. >> or you may have multiple security numbers >> fraud is a network problem. one of the reasons why we can add value for our customers is market shares ain the insurance
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company is fair lilo if we try to defraud insurance companies, we would not just hit one. we would hit many of them. we are getting well over 90% of claims >> i remember shortly after the ipo and writing about the company and it was characterized. the industry kind of owned this as a collective thing and it was considered -- well, it is kind of like visas. the bank used to own visa and now it is a profit thing and all these values i am wondering of the historical data that you seem to have still maintain its values because you kind of house a lot of the industry historical experience >> right it still does. this is an excellent point i get into this discussion a lot. there is one point of view about where the modern world is going which is in a world that's hyper connected and where you have a lot of machine learning basically all nodes in the network communicating with one
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another and the machine will tell you what the data means that's fundamentally not the case when dow business the way we do which is our customers are businesses and the source of r our -- if anything ceos are becoming more persuaded of the value of their data. they have contents as an advantage and as a differentiator we find that the analysis that we do there are a substantial lift based on the proprietary content. >> how do you price the value? >> we don't sell data, we do three thing, we put unique data sets and we analyze them using very fluid analytic methods. >> how do you price knowledge? i pay my workers and i ship it and i need a margin. how do you price margin? >> the third layer is decision
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software that helps deliver the data analysis into our customer world. we price the value so we know what business problem they're trying to solve and we are aware of the value that our solution provides >> you do businesses with a number of insurance companies. let's say company a sends you data and company b sends you data, do you use that data to provide aggregate and see for instance of a risk assessment on me because i may have claimed through a different insurance company. >> yes, we'll be aggregating data from all player in the markets that we serve which would be insurance and retail financial banking and global energy complex but in all cases, we are gathering data from all players and creating more or less industry standard solutions that everybody can make use of as they try to interpret it >> we would probably have some
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>> and you know it is me >> well, if we have enough time, we can go into it. >> basically in the modern world because we have to keep the data secure, one of the options that we have is to go well beyond sort of the standard ways of trying to keep data secure which was encryption and most people think about and there is a different level which is that we can tokenize the data. think of it tsa boundary of our data and the outside world when the data hit that boundary, we hash it up as it lands inside our data sets. your name and your address would not show up, would notsetting inside our data sets at rest everyone though we know how we tokenize it in there and we can reverse the process. >> scott stephenson. >> thank you coming up, facebook taking down more than 600 accounts that are linked to russia or iran
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this morning's developing story after the break and check out future at this hour. down about 40 points right now and coming off an all time high, we are seeing a little bit of red on the screen. we'll be back with more on your money as "squawk box" rolls on xfinity mobile is a new wireless network
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all right, let's take a look at stocks this morning revenue coming in forecasting and that stock is up by about 14%. exact science is sharing a move in the market. that stock is up 13.5% exec out red robin reported a profit of 46 cents per share revenue also coming up short of the street's forecast with restaurant sales fallen. mark zuckerberg announcing facebook has identified two political campaigns have he has taken steps to stop those d
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campaigns. julia boorstin is joining us now. >> that's right. both of those campaigns looking to mislead people in different countries around the world mark zuckerberg got a call with reporters last night that facebook removed 652 account pages and dprugroups linked with iranian interference facebook is saying it is working with u.s. treasury in state department on the issue. facebook is working closely with law enforcement on the investigation of the russian linked pages group and accounts. it won't share details of the number it is removed becauses the investigation is still ongoing. these campaigns were not focused on the midterm but we were more broad. mark zuckerberg is saying they're working to identify all kinds of activities. it is not just facebook.
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twitter tweeted, today we have suspended 284 accounts from twitter for engaging coordinated manipulation many of these are originated from iran and youtube removed one account tied to iran zuckerberg are working with other companies and also keeping their data safe. he also says there are other investigations are underway so this certainly is no the last of it becky, back to you >> julia, i am alittle confuse of the story, how much of it is propaganda and how much is trying to influence elections and voters, how do you break down some of those issues? >> it is interesting because they break down different groups that were trying to spread manipulation around the world so there are a couple of iranian groups tied to iran and the russian manipulation and what
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se zuckerberg said in this call it is not just the midterm. they found another group that was trying to manipulate the midte midterm. this was about political discord and some of the issues were about middle east politics if you look at that and you may characterize propaganda. it is really pretty broad based in what they seem like they're trying to do he did note that they take it seriously especially ahead of elections. one question during propaganda as another question if you are trying to change the outcome in the election by misleading people the issue is these accounts were not exactly who they were and they're trying to mislead people >> julia, thank you very much. >> when we come back, highlights from our exclusive interview with target chairman and ceo brian cornell. in the meantime, check out the futures this morning
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target posting an earning
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beat and the best sales in 13 years >> next year you will see more of what we deliver and continue 20 and beyond. >> we'll show you what brian cornell says for the quarter yesterday's legal drama sparking uncertainty >> we are getting news indicated that michael cohen broke the law. >> here is what we know. the jury reached a verdict in eight out of 18 counts >> we'll talk about the potential fallout for stocks are your money >> why your local bar may be a victim on higher tariffs on metal. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york this is "squawk box. >> good morning everybody, welcome back to "squawk box"
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here, i am rebecca quick along with melissa lee joe and andrew are off today >> it marks the longest run in history if we get back to regular level before we drop 12%. s&p 500 has been a bull market, it is up 323% from its march 2009 lows. we'll have much more coming up the futures this morning is a little bit lower you can take a look and you can see the dow futures indicated down by about 43%. the s&p would open down by 7.5 points and the nasdaq is off by 13.5 if you take a look at what's been happening for the treasury mark, the yield is sitting at 2.8% >> shares of retailer of target jump its trade that's the best in 13 years.
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ceo brian cornell told becky that the retailer's long-term investments are paying off we'll show you that interview in a little bit lowe's is at the top of the bottom line. sales came in below forecast and lowe's cut its year outlook. political news that could have an impact on your money michael cohen taking a plea deal and paul manafort found guilty of multiple tax fraud charges all within hours of each other eamon javers is joining us now more on washington >> we got a new development. lanny davis, he was on the "today" show talking about all this he's asking for a aspect of a
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pardon >> is he hoping for a pardon >> he would not accept a pardon. he considers a pardon from somebody that acted so corruptly as president to nothing he'll never accept >> michael cohen is not asking for ra pardon and would not accept the pardon from president trump. that changes the dynamic over the leverage that the president may have over michael cohen. he pleads guilty yesterday on eight counts including violations involving payments to women related to allegations of sexual affair with the president and in order to keep those affairs secret before the election and manafort yesterday found guilty on eight counts by a injury arejury in that case. threatening the president and rudy giuliani,'s t the presidens
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attorney, saying it does not have any impact on the allegations. it is clear rudy giuliani says that as the prosecutors noted mr. cohen's action reflects a pattern of lies. michael cohen engaged in a pattern of lies and dishonesty over a significant period of time the president talked about it briefly but he has been quiet on twitter this morning and normally the president of the united states -- he has not issued anything since his return last night >> ammowhat do we expect from t? we are seeing michael cohen, one of his closest friends and allies turning on the president but from a legal perspective, do we have any idea on either front
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what the next steps are? >> this is a drama at this point. you got michael cohen who once says he'll take a bullet for the president of the united states and now being the among the most threatening figure out there to the president. lanny davis suggested that michael cohen has more information particularly around criminal computer hacking and whether or not the president knew about that hacking ahead of time and even sheered it on says lanny davis. the question is what does michael cohen know of the president's involvement? russian hacking and is he willing to talk about that >> you are talking about if he knew about wikileaks beforehand. hey, are you listening, go after it >> the president's aid suggested that comment, hey russia, when you are listening, i want you to find hillary's e-mail. they said that comment was a
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swro joke and he did not really mean it but, what lanny davis was suggesting that it may be the case that michael cohen knows about criminal computer hacking. there were related e-mails that were stolen using computers by russian intelligence according to indictment of those russian gru members earlier this year from the special counsel office. the question is, did the president know about that hacking before it happened and was he cheering it on as lanny davis suggests that michael cohen knows to be the case what cohen says now of a huge interest and how the president spo responds to all of this. there are a number of steps that the president could take and we'll see if he'll take any of them and making this situation even more precariously for the president. >> that's where it is all go i think to come back to.
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it is going to come back to campaign finance law and the washington post had a great analysis that you can hate the president, you can know there has been laws broken in campaign finance but for a sitting president to be indicted or impeached is nearly impossible >> well, the department of justice guidelines out there suggests that doj attorneys believer it is not possible under the constitution to indict a sitting president. it is not likely that robert mueller would not indict but although not guaranteed. the other part is write a report of all this and submit it to the attorney general because the attorney general was recused of his own involvement with the russians so some fascinating questions here about where we go but these are highest stakes in the world, absolutely >> eamon javers in d.c., we
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preesh appreciate it. jay holland, you listen to our conversation there, what do you believe? let's focus on cohen that's getting more attention than manafort. what do you believe is next? michael cohen indicated that he is likely to be cooperating. in y it looks like the prosecutors set up future cases not necessarily against the president but against folks in the trump organization there is a lot of the talk in there about payments coming from the trump organization, which executives knew what and sending e-mails and wire transfers with false explanations, there is no reason for that to be in the information other than to lock michael cohen in potential future testimonies and perhaps
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set up another case against people within the trump organization >> we know that he obviously has information, jay and that he obviously flipped and saying not only and eamon says he'll takin a bullet but now he does not want to be apart do you think this is some kind of a ploy to scare the president to make sure if there is some kind of a pardon that the best deal, the best timing or whatever it may be is reached. is this cohen's own negotiation tactic >> i don't know what's in michael cohen's head this does not seem to be a good negotiating tactic if he's looking to get a pardon out of the president. what manafort is doing looks to be getting a pardon from the president. cohen looks like he's all in on giving whatever help he can to the special counsel and prosecutors in new york and at
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least if you believe his attorney >> i am wondering jay, what do we need to find out from the michael cohen in order to build some sort of case that sticks against the president. from the market standpoint, we are figuring out if this is going to jeopardize trump, what's your view >> if you are building a case against the president, it is hard to see a case based on cohen's materials without cohen. cohen would have to testify but you also need to have corroborating information and documents and recordings cohen says he has recordings that's the thing that you can use to build the case against the president. you don't necessarily have to build a case just against the president. they could be using cohen to go after the people within the trump administration and within the campaign and that could be just as distracting and
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potentially damaging to the administration particularly given the long standi standing doj where you can't indict a sitting president >> given all these news here and the washington post says effectively everything else that's going on, any kind of indictment is highly unlikely. the market is focus on that. would you agree on that take we can say all we want or dislike him all we want as a president but despite the cohen news, indictment against the president, if not possible are extremely difficult. >> that means you are not likely to see an actual indictment of the president. it does not mean you will not end up with a report where you
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got crimes detailed or it goes to congress. who knows what the make up of congress will be next year that can change the dynamic. i think you can see that coming. again, it looks like it is just the beginning and not just with the cohen side of it but the rest of the mueller investigation, looks like it is just heating up. we have a way to go, it is a good guess that we'll have more indictments and more news like yesterday and this story is not going away as we put more and more pressure on the president to do something. we still have a fight about whether or not the president can be forced to testify before a grand jury in the mueller investigati investigation. that's likely coming as well >> jay hulhulings, we appreciate your insight >> thank you for having me >> target's stock is up sharply
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in the market. we'll show you what brian cornell says in an exclusive interview. as we head to break, check out the biggest winner and loser, you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc going on at schwab. oh really? thank you clients? well jd power did just rank them highest in investor satisfaction with full service brokerage firms...again. and online equity trades are only $4.95... i mean you can't have low cost and be full service. it's impossible. it's like having your cake and eating it too. ask your broker if they offer award-winning full service and low costs. how am i going to explain this? if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab. schwab, a modern approach to wealth management.
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welcome back everybody, the target earnings call is underway here is what the ceo of target told us, brian cornell, long-term investment and competing with camazon >> we took a path that we'll win in the long-term and several years ago we decided to invest in our stores and invest in our brands and our team and invest in new fulfillment capabilities. those are starting to mature and they are now at scale and you are seeing reaction from our consumers and our guests and it will show up in our recent earnings report. >> you are talking about competing with the amazon of the world where you know customers don't want to come to the store,
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what have you done during thownt path >> we focused on three areas, one, providing a great experience, it is inspiring when you are in our stores, that's why we are remodelling and opening up new stores and offering new brands to our guests we want to make sure it is really convenient and easy to shop so allowing you to drive in our parking lots and within a couple of minutes i put that order right in your trunk or our ship shoppers where we have tens of thousands of personal shoppers across the country where you place that order and i got a mom shopping for you who's bringing that order to your home within an hour. >> i tried out last week and i was skeptical at first that it was going to work i anticipated, it did work exactly as anticipated. when you say ship, it is shipt somebody shops for you and they deliver it for you within hours.
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>> jeff bezos instructed consumers that we can have whatever we want and when ever we want it >> it is about pleasing consumers. it is a great in store experience and we provide great service when we are there. if you need convenience and ease, we are in every neighborhood in america. we got 1800 stores and we are growing our store base it is easy to come to our store and shop if you want to place an order right at your desk, come by an hour later to pick it up or hav it deliver ed to your home. we are trying to blend great experience and also make sure we deliver great values every time you shop >> joining us is roxanne myers and jay rogers well come both welcome both of you. >> when we talked to you earlier
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this week, you expected high numbers but you are not sure how it would react jan kniffen. to be competitive with walmart and amazon, they need that the whole report was fabulous. i used to come here in 2006 and saying target is the best retail in the country and kos costco ih best target looked like they used to look, better numbers in stores and great numbers online this was just as good as it gets as far as reporting in that space. >> what happened >> what happens was consumers could not be better. you heard brian says the best consumers in his career. when walmart can report fabulous numbers and amazon can report fabulous numbers, it is not what retails are doing but consumers. i give him all credit, he's done a great job with retail 101.
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they invested all these money and it is working. a lot of what we are seeing is consumers. >> brian says he's stealing market shares from places. they're doing great. are you seeing places in your world that you think stealing from. >> what we have seen is the bell weathers that have been doing well like at t.j.x. is taking share. they are up 40%. that's a big number for a $40 billion company. i imagine we may see some weakness of some of the special team names i have yet to report. you got a positive favorable macro and a few weak and it comes down to haves and haves' not. >> does it tell you that these guys don't have the right
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product? if the money is there and the money is being spent, why are they not spending on whatever it is at abercrombie or whatever retailer you are talking about >> yeah, look at elle brand and victoria's secret is still pumping negative with negative traffic. >> what did you write? they're selling stuff at nobody wants and at a price nobody wants to pay >> it is not a good combination. it still continues to be highly p promotionals as we head into back to school for the bras and even in the pink category, it is softer than it should be the haves not are going to stand out. >> elle brand is a unique position because they're doing something wrong. most retailers that are struggling are not maximum taxpayers so they don't get the break on taxes they can't afford to reinvest in
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the business >> what are you talking about specifically >> anybody like that in the space that's giving up share i keep on saying we'll see record store clothing. those are mosley highly leverage retailers who don't pay tax and can't reinvest in the business and they're giving up shares of the targets or urban outfitters of the world, the lululemon of the world. that does not apply to weak retailers. they're going to go broke and go away they're giving up shares of the t.j. maxx in the world >> coming up a shortage of epipens. trade war fallout, why a local bar, yeah, your bar could be your latest casualties ll tariffs on metals taking a wel talk about metals and
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beers combined stick around are you done yet?
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the fda is extending expiration date for epipens for four months. the epipens jr. which is
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produced by kids,fda says it -- >> meantime, hawaii, wow, preparing for a massive category five storm as hurricane lane is moving towards the islands many residents have been stocking on food and supplies. tropical storm forest winds and large wells, all expected to hit hawaii >> hawaii have only been hit twice, one in '59 or '91 this is a big, dangerous storm that's heading towards the big island right in the path. >> when we come back, we'll talk about a market milestone we are in the longest bull market run in history. we'll talk about the risk factors that could disrupt stocks or what the chances are as this morning continues. >> take a look at our futures under some pressure. it is down by 62 points and s&p
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off by 10 and sd inaaqs down by 24 and we'll be right back
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good morning, welcome back to "squawk box." shares of zynga has rise up. zynga will take over operation of disney live games hartford is buying navigators. that's nearly 9% premiums over yesterday's closing price for navigators the feds released its minutes of the most recent meeting this afternoon. the fed did not raise interest rates in that meeting which took place july 31st.
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a scare from the rapper post malone. they circled the tri-state area for hours. the rapper performed on the mtv music awards there are 15 other people on the plane. he was flying a g-5 to london, even guys of 100 million bucks that the go to that got to be -- taking g-5 across the atlantic. >> post malone is doing all right. >> how do you know that? >> you priced it out yourself? >> yeah, i am the guy hanging on the wheel. >> because if you know people who are doing that and rich guys that's not flying private. >> i don't know anybody doing it >> you know people
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>> maybe i have not told you >> melissa knows 3,453 days, that's a lot of bull, bull market that is. >> the bull market began in the record of the financial crisis of the longest one on record joining us now joe armano and cunningham it is great to have you with us, gentlemen. >> morning there >> we are sort of in the business of looking at what could end things on the negative side of things, what's on your radar? >> i think it is really the fed rate path and the contraction of lick qu liqu liquidity. >> we don't see that in the
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rising the feds have been careful it is one of the things we have been watching closely. >> terms in terms of what you ae concerned about, does that path concerned you or is it that path proceeds in spite of what's going on around the world such as emerging maring market and sp rise in the dollar and etc. >> we expect the debt to be driven one of the things that we are all wrestling with is the amount of liquidity that's been pumped into the system over the course of the last number of years if you see what fed have done and gone from four or five trillions. that is process is slowly reversing. the t it is a degree of unchartered territory. >> jay-j.j., what's your concern
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the fed is a bit of a worry. as they say though, every box will tell you and the punch that knocks you out is the one that you don't see coming we saw a little bit of taste of this perhaps with turkey in ttw weeks ago and the european situation and in terms of banking and we have brexit on the horizon and etc. i am worried if we see a slow down worldwide and gdp in china is slowing to a little bit and not to a level that we have to beoverly concerned those are the things that worry me more than inflation because everyone though we do have a lot of money in the system and etcetera, the pressure for pricing is just starting a little bit as we saw of what kimberley clark last week but i don't think it is widespread yet. >> joe, what's your general feeling of where we are in this market and how do you invest and what's your concern is >> i think the earnings picture
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is quite strong so we certainly experience 22% earnings growth of the year and expectations of tl year of the year is about that. the economic activity may be peeking from the u.s. economy standpoint it is moving along at a good pace there is a lot of positives that could push this and will push this market higher in the near term, the concerns that we have are some of the things we talked about earlier in terms of where the path is and there are other event that is we were concerned about and china was mentioned. >> what about cohen. j.j. i am going to do it to you because you are not here throwing at me what about cohen and manafort? you know they're going to start about impeachment and are you surprise that futures are not
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reacting more naiegatively at ti news >> no, i am not surprise right after the news broke, they came back and only a couple dollars and now down about six what it think it goes into, people have been calling impeachment since the president was elected. one of the traps retail investors fall into is they let their political view out weighs what the market is telling them. i see the vix is up 20%. run for cover are not there right now. so with that i will say there has been constant swirl and earnings drive the market. th fantastic. right now the mark is et is not telling you that there is a signal out there people have to separate their ideology of what the mark et is
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telling them >> the market was up 20% or 30% during the bill clinton time and a lot of the policy issues that are important for the economy, a significant tax cut for corporations and significantly less regulations have really been important those things have been accomplished and that's what the market is focused on >> how does that impact the election in november, mattis the trump's agenda maintaining majority in the house, are those things important to your view in the market >> i continue it will disera in washington would be the issue that the market is trying to understand of that implication and gridlock is not a bad thing because it avoids doing crazy things on the left and right the market consensus today that the democrats are going to take the house. the expectations are in there.
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>> joe and j.j., great to see you. always a pleasure, thank you. >> trade war fallout why metal tariffs could have an impact on the keg of beer at your local bar. we'll break down the numbers, next
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tripadvisor searches over 200 booking sites... to show you the lowest prices... so you can get the best deal on the right hotel for you. dates, deals, done! tripadvisor. visit tripadvisor.com welcome back to "squawk box," the future is under a little bit of pressure dow is down by about 60 points this morning and nasdaq is down
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by 22. we did see some weakness yesterday as news of these indictments and guilty charges and the guilty plea both came out. you are talking about some modest declines at this point. oprah's business venture is pizzas she introduced a new line kraft heinz new pizzas >> the new thing they have at weight watchers where you can eat whatever you want and freedom points i bet they fit into that >> you will get half a slice >> i forget exactly what it is >> there is like some freedom points where things that were there before and i bet money that there is a connection and it actually matches up i have not done the work yet but i will do a little research.
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>> i am going to do research about 901 this morning at the pizza truck outside. >> getting a little hungry >> i drove here and no time to eat. i don't care what they sell. >> they open at 9:01 >> i am borrowing money from melissa lee and i am going right there, right after the show is over >> trade war rages on. many countries in america is getting caught including a business that specializes in making beer kegs kate rogers is joining us now. the only u.s. maker of stainless steel in the country, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, the american keg company has been unexpectedly hard hit by the trump administrations on tariffs of imported steel. on the surface looks like they may benefit because they make all the kegs you see here out of domestically produced steel. but as demand for steel have gone up to prices, now it turns out kegs that are imported from
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china are $20 cheaper than the ones that are made here. the reason, not tariffs on those imported kegs. the company lost about 20% of their business and they had to basically cut production in half and lay off about a third of their staff. >> please to run three shifts. this place used to be packed all the time people had decent jobs and people who had an income that they could count on and you know one day you are given somebody a chance at em moiployment and the next day you tell them they don't have a job anymore >> reporter: the company is in washington, d.c. he's testifying in front of the u.s. trade representative in support of the additional $200 billion worth of tariffs. there would be a levy on the kegs that are coming over from china. they're hoping that the plain field is levelled once again and hopefully they can ramp up
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production and bring back some of the workers they lost, back over to you. >> that's complicated, kate. you start thinking of trying to counter the effects of tariffs of additional tariffs. that's a tough game to kind of follow how you get to the right level. the president himself has said he would like to see all tariffs go away from everybody >> yeah, that's a great point. that's interesting here is that about five years ago, this company used to import kegs from overseas they would have been in a position to benefit but now they make them all here because there was demand and a need for u.s. made products. the tables have kind of turned around and now thanksgiving deye negative side of what's going on it is interesting to watch all of this ripple effects of the policies that are put in place >> kate rogers, thank you. joining us now is our former deputy u.s. trade
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representative, ambassador robert good morning, thank you for joining us >> good morning. what do you think is going to happen from these trade talks. they're entry level and not low level, they're mid level trade talks. do you think any concrete deal is dpoing to going to be reachen today in d.c.? >> i don't think any concrete deals will be reached but it is important that the two sides are talking which is something we have not been doing for a while. it is a necessary step in this process but we are long away from being able to resolve this. it is good that the delegations in d.c i hope that leads to further progress we'll have to wait and see >> given the in balance in trade, do you believe china has any power in these negotiations. we don't sell them of that much stuff and much of what we sell are animal protein and things like scrap metal do they have a leg to stand on
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beginning these negotiations >> well, china has a lot of strength, they're the second largest economy in the world clearly the impact of the u.s. tariffs on chinese products is hurting china at t at the same time they still have a strong economy and principles that they're trying to put forward. i think the challenge for the u.s. is that we are trying to get some fundamental changes in china as the second largest economy in the world they are a non-market economy. much of what we cited of the source of distortion are the closed market and status and desire to keep that close. china does have strengths in this the u.s. have more strengths the path that we are on imposing tariffs by the u.s. or by china is not a path that's successful. we have to find ways to breakdown the barriers and make
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sure that u.s. companies end up in a long-term get a better deal in operating in china. >> anybody that's been waiting for the president to weigh in on michael cohen who he did not mention so he has done so on twitter. little restrained by what you may have expected. if anyone is looking for a good lawyer, i strongly suggest that you don't retain the services of michael cohen. you have enough political experience to kind of weigh in and tell us what you think based on yesterday's news. >> i think that issue is one that sort of clouds the overall picture but i also know that in areas like the china negotiations, we continue to see the work being done and i don't think that's significance distractions trying to work these deals out. what it does say from many fronts that there are a lot of challenges facing the country. they're both in domestic
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political challenges and the type s of changes we are trying to drive internationally largely i will add with our peers without the support of our allies, france >> although the administration may be making some progress. there was a report from politico suggesting that we are at the point of having handshake agreement with mexico thinking at the point we are thinking really making the breakthrough if that's the case, canada can come back in and we'll get closer to doing an agreement there. >> we should absolutely get closer there they are our neighbors and they have been committed to re-negotiate nafta we need to move away from old deals to getting new deals with countries like china and that's really critical and that's where the stakes are high and i continue to believe as most of the community believes that tariffs are costing u.s. businesses and consumers and our
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workers and so we better find a solution to this in the near term otherwise the u.s. will be paying twice, both of what we are losing in terms of the china market and what we are losing is raising costs. >> this will all get ramped up in your view, you said your measure for success of any deal would be improved market assets for u.s. companies looking to do business in the china market can you see a success through trade talks and tariffs. if tariffs are going to affect $200 billion worth of goods, will that do the trick does tchina have to be forced into this? >> well, i don't think that's the trick. the use of the tariff and the path the administration is taking is the best way to where we are trying to go in china
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the concern would be if tariffs go into effect tomorrow, additional $200 billion. china retaliates by over 5,000 u.s. products coming into china and if those stay then we fundamentally change we import a lot more from them than they import from us they'll look to other things that are sort of nontariff means to harm u.s. companies. >> at that point, does the leverage go in favor of china? >> well, china has a lot of leverage in this well, i would not say they have more leverage than the u.s i mean, we're clearly the strong player in this, but many u.s. companies do business and do business quite successfully in the chinese market, particularly consumer-based companies china would have the ability through regulatory through
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disincentivizing consumers to not buy our products the path we're on is a high-stakes game we need to find a way to conclude it successfully that's going to take some tough negotiations and willingness by china to open their market in ways we haven't seen today. >> thank you very much for joining us on this issue appreciate it. >> thank you very much when we return, we're going to be talking retail this morning's other big movers. he'll join us live from the new york stock exchange. check out the futures quickly. dow down 44 pots wel rhtac 'lbeig bk.in pah! that will never work. no, no, no, nah. a bulb of light?!? aha ha ha! a flying machine? impossible! a personal' computer?! ha! smart neighborhoods running on a microgrid. a stadium powered with solar. a hospital that doesn't lose power. amazing. i like it. never gonna happen.
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let's get down to the new york stock exchange jim cramer joins now we asked you to weigh in on the retailers. target out today what did you think of the numbers? perhaps the strongest i've seen in my career. >> yeah, right. >> cornell said that i've got to tell you, i mean, we have to stand up this is a seasoned retailer. this man said it's the strongest perhaps ever i mean, i've never seen anything like this. i mean, we're at some sort of
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renaissance here whether it be tjx, walmart, which has come down and the urban outfitters call is another one. circle back and home depot vers versus lowe's. they're trying to clean the joint up i've never seen anything like this it's overshadowed by a lot of things maybe this is something we should think about instead of cohen and manafort the "washington post" tells you good luck. maybe put pressure on the midterm elections. maybe xi said i can wait out this guy i don't know what xi is thinking wow! >> i saw you last night. this is unbelievable. >> i saw your show last night. they opened a new one by us. it's perfect i would say the target this weekend. i was supposed to be there for five minutes to get one thing. my wife is like where is he?
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i'm going aisle by aisle. >> $480 dollars later you walk out. >> i used to -- -- the self-check it was a gorgeous target the cvs was amazing. everyone was helpful i didn't want to leave i left because i know my colleague david faber is not a big shopper and i shopped for both of us [ laughter ] >> he's not. >> he doesn't even know that cvs is located in target now. >> i'm only leaving -- >> he said it is he's not miked he said "it is?" >> i heard him on your mike. he's from queens, by the way it's incredible. >> we'll see you in a little bit. thank you. coming up autumn doesn't officially bineg until september 22nd but one fall staple is coming earlier this year. the details next 6,000 feet above sea level.
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but how do you really know that the beans journeyed to the port of mombasa and across the pacific? that you can trust they're 100% authentic? ibm blockchain. a smart way to track every step, ensuring this coffee did indeed come from 6,000 feet above sea level. and not a foot lower. ♪ ♪
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(sighs) i hate missing out missing out after hours. not anymore, td ameritrade lets you trade select securities
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24 hours a day, five days a week. that's amazing. it's a pretty big deal. so i can trade all night long? ♪ ♪ all night long... is that lionel richie? let's reopen the market. mr. richie, would you ring the 24/5 bell? sure can, jim. ♪ trade 24/5, with td ameritrade. ♪ all right. pumpkin spice season keeps getting earlierier and earlier starbucks announcing it'll bring back the seasonal latte on august 28 president. that's a week earlier than last year it's before laborday it marks the 15th birthday of the fan-favorite drink
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a 16-ounce psl who knows it as that as it's known, supposedly. costs about $5 and contains 380 calories, 14 grams of fat, and 50 grams of sugar. it make sure you join us tomorrow we'll see you tomorrow time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with jim cramer live from the stock exchange carl quintanilla has the day off. a look at futures now. and in other places, as well you can see we're set up for a potentially lower open european markets, of course, open for some type a sort of flat last time we looked let's take a loo

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