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tv   Squawk Alley  CNBC  August 30, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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about i've owned thousands, i have a plane that cost me a lot, a million dollars a year or something of the sort. if i used the iphone, i use an ipad a lot, if i use the iphone like all my friends do, i would rather give up the plane, which is a million or million and a half a year for something that costs a thousand bucks the iphone is enormously underpriced. now it's got competition so you can't push the price, but in terms of its utility to people, and what they get for a thousand dollars someplace else, you know, you can have a dinner party that would cost that, and here this is, and what it does for you, it's incredible >> you mentioned airplanes, and airlines, and i just wonder, are the airline stocks that you also still find attractive? have you been adding to your positions there? >> we can't add, technically we could but i don't want to go
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over 10% except in rare circumstances of security, so we own nine and a fraction percent of the four largest, and i actually have to trim them just a little if they're repurchasing shares to stay under 10% i could buy 20%, i would have been happy to buy 20%, but, so we've got about what we can handle >> warren, let me ask you about the news of the day. campbell's came out with its own business initiatives, strategic initiative today >> i saw that. >> they're selling off a couple of units, the fresh foods and the international. does that make it more attractive or less attractive as a buying opportunity for something that could get wrapped in potentially to kraft heinz? >> i don't know that it changes the picture a lot. presumably they're going to get fair value for that, so if they would be calculated by any acquirers being worth "x." it may or may not be tax efficient.
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i don't know the basis on those assets if they have a low tax basis it decreases value a little bit for another buyer because you'll give some of it to the government in the process, but i don't think in terms of any other company looking at it for acquisition they're probably selling the assets that those companies would have been particularly looking for, but i don't know campbell that well. >> you're saying you don't know it that well makes me think you haven't been looking it over considering it as a purchase dan loeb would like to see somebody buy it. would berkshire be interested, would kraft hooipz be? >> berkshire wouldn't, partly because we own kraft heinz but it's hard to offer significant premium to a package to the company and have it make financial sense. the packaged goods makes high returns on tangible assets it has but it is a tougher business
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than it was ten years ago and the stocks are higher than they were ten years ago, so we back in the '80s were the largest shareholder of general foods i always liked brands and they're very good brands, but in terms of the battle of the retailers versus the brands and the willingness of people to change their habits probably has a higher propensity for that than 20 or 30 years ago, so branded goods, branded packaged goods are a very, very, very good business in terms of return an tangible assets but they're not a sensational business in terms of where you can be five or ten years from now. >> let me ask you about some news that berkshire made a little over a month ago. i'm not sure it received quite the attention that it should have you said that you were changing your views on buying back berkshire shares >> right >> for a long time, you've said that if it got above 120% of book value, you would buy it
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back that created a floor for the stock. now you say that you're throwing that out the window. if you and charlie monger can look at it and agree back you'll buy back stock have you bought back any stock since then >> we bought back a little and we try it to intrinsic business value but for a while book value was a good proxy it didn't fully describe intrinsic value, but it tracked it, and it was a reasonable proxy, and it's gotten to have less and less importance as we move to operating businesses from investments so what really counts is what are the businesses worth, along with the securities we own, and if it's at a discount to that figure, charlie and i will buy, and we bought some >> how often do you and charlie talk about it? >> we don't have to talk very often. if it's so close, we have to talk, every time it moves 1%, it isn't worth buying there should be a margin of
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error in our calculation so we never talk day-to-day or week to week on it, but i know that what's in mine and we're totally in sync, and we need a big enough discount, so we're buying it, and what we know is a price where the continuing shareholders are going to be better off, because we bought it we're running business for the people who are going to stay, not the ones who are going to leave. >> about a week and a half ago or just about a week ago, i spoke with brian cornell, the,{s:c}the, ceo at target. he said in his career he's never seen a better environment for the consumer, things seem to be firing on all cylinders. what do you see when it comes to the economy and what do you see when it comes to the consumer? >> the economy, really since the fall of 2009, has progressively gotten better but it started from a very low base it started from panic, and we've now had nine, well very soon, we
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got nine full years of improvement in business. i mean, quarter by quarter sometimes it looked like 1% or 1.25%, sometimes it was 2.5. now it looks even better than that, but business is good across the board, business is good it was good two years ago. it keeps getting better, but the american public household wealth is over $100 trillion, and 250 years ago, you know, there wasn't anything here 24 bucks >> the economy is firing on all cylinders. one issue people worried about is what is happening with trade and tariffs. have you seen any impact on berkshire's business on higher costs associated with any tariffs in place >> yes, there are a few definitely we buy steel, for example, at a
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lot of places and we are seeing some effects from that and we're seeing some effects from inflation. >> sorry, from inflation >> right we've seen more in the way of cost increases in the last year, if you go across all of our businesses, but particularly building materials or -- we sell paint, the can it comes in is more expensive than a year ago >> how much inflation is tied to the tariffs and how much is from an improving economy and inflation you would expect to creep in >> i can't tell you exactly yet, and some of them -- well, newsprint. it pops up in every place and i haven't really done that, but i was seeing it in raw materials well before the tariffs situation came up, but the tariff situation will aggravate it significantly >> let's just talk about that. if you are seeing price
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increases coming through that may lead you to the conclusion you think the fed should raise rates or continue to raise rates as they've been doing, the president, donald trump, tweeted out and talked in an interview about how he doesn't like to see the fed raising rates. what do you think about that, just as somebody who watches it? >> i think jay powell is a terrific chairman fed. i've known him, i know people he worked with, and i've listened to what he's had to say, so i love the fact jay powell is chairman of the fed, and he will do the right thing, he gets a lot more figures in than i do. i may get them a little faster on some things than the fed they may work their way through, but he will see it, and he'll do what, in his judgment, is best for the american economy over time there isn't any question about that, and maybe he'll make mistakes i know i'll make mistakes, but he knows what his job is and he'll do it. >> the president also tweeted
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about another initiative, and i just wondered what you thought about it he said after speaking with indra nui, she was the one who talked with him he'd like to do something that helps american business, stop reporting every quarter, maybe do it on a six-month basis. what do you think of that idea you focused on long-termism. >> jamie diamond and i came out a while back, but i always focused on the idea, "a" i like to read quarterly reports as an investor and we've got a couple hundred billion dollars worth of common stocks, so i like to get those quarterly reports. i do not like guidance, and i think the guidance leads to lots of bad things and i've seen it lead to lots of bad things i don't think quarterly reporting itself -- it's when you get into promising people what you're going to do every quarter. i can't promise what's going to happen you know, we're in the hurricane season now and you could change our earnings draumatically witha
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storm or something like that i think it's a bad practice in the game of earnings guidance. people play it as a game, it is a game, and people adjust to numbers and all that i like to get the figures quarterly, and i hope that stays. >> i don't know if you follow twitter very closely my expectation is that you don't. >> you're right about that >> but there was a fake twitter account, a fake warren buffett twitter account that went from 20,000 followers to 200,000 followers in 24 hours by tweeting out all kinds of pithy sort of sound advice, things that folks say it sounded like it could have come from you. why don't you tweet more often >> i don't see a reason to i put out an annual report, and i do not have a daily view on all kinds of things, and, and maybe i've got a guy in this copycat or imitator, maybe he's putting out better stuff than i would. if he puts out good advice, i'll take credit for it >> we have seen some ceos who
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like to tweet very frequently, including elon musk. >> yes >> he's certainly somebody who tweeted a lot. what do you think about people who tweet a lot? >> i don't think it's helped him a lot. no, i think it's -- well, particularly dangerous to start commenting on berkshire daily, which i never would do, but i think there's other things in life i want to do than tweet i'm not that desperate for somebody to hear my opinion on this >> warren, it's your birthday today, your 88th birthday. we wish you a happy 88th birthday in fact, we have something that we've ordered up, the chef is here at smith and wolenski put together to celebrate your 88th birthday this year they went out of your way to focus on the coke holdings, fifth largest holdings >> that's terrific >> i wanted to talk to you about at 88, probably not a lot of new tricks you could get taught but
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i know even though you don't have a smartphone you have an ipad >> i have an ipad. i use it a lot >> what do you do with it? >> i keep it around on my desk during the day, and if i want to check anything in the financial markets, that's an easy way to do it. i look up things it's what i do with a computer at home, and computers are enormously useful to me and the ipad is. this is the one i have in the office in effect >> do you ever listen to podcasts, follow anybody else? what other things do you do? >> i listen to a podcast from my friends at tom murphy. podcasts are normally, they take a while. i can read faster than i can listen to one, but i recommend that it was done with david novak, the 28-minute podcast. any time i get to listen to tom murphy i think it's terrific but generally i don't because of the time element >> what did you learn from tom murphy in that podcast >> well, i've learned -- i've been learning from him ever
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since i met him in 1968 or '69 the very first time i met him, tom murphy like charlie monger is a better person than i would be that's the ultimate gift and tom and charlie has given to me and my dad earlier and my wife and so on. but he's a human being that if you study him, i'm just talking about business, but just as a human being, you want to have the right heroes, and i've had the right heroes and tom murphy is one of them >> tom murphy is from cap city's abc. warren, happy birthday >> thank you >> thank you for spending time with us today and luck with the lunch. >> i may need a second helping that's a little skimpy on the coke there >> guys we'll send it back to you in the studio, carl. thank you. >> great stuff, as always, becky. our becky quick with warren buffett today, an interview we're going to discuss all day
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today of course on cnbc. i'm here with morgan brennan and mike santelli is with me well as well she covered the gamut, apple, airlines, campbell, buy-backs, daves, earnings guidance, social media. headlines for you? >> obviously reiterating his broad thought that the stock market long-term is going to pay you back, doesn't like bonds still. i find it interesting that he is very consistent on this point but has $120 billion in cash hates bonds but a lot of dry powder and a lot of cash apple, the world view on apple the way it's viewed as a kind of consumer product that is so entrenched in people's lives, that makes a lot of sense to me. also what he said about the packaged goods companies now, berkshire wouldn't be interested in whatever's left of campbell's but just this idea you have to look through the period when retailers beat up the brand and there's value there. all that stuff makes sense and the buying back of berkshire
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stock shows some flexibility at his age, into thinking about exactly what financial discipline means he's not going to be so strict about it and finally that at age 88, his attention span is too short for podcasts which is hilarious. you think of younger people thinking they take too long but he'd rather read it. >> the airlines that started the day with the transports overall are lower and on his comments we've seen the major airlines that berkshire has holdings and pair the losses, all trading higher in the last couple minutes. that's noteworthy. the other thing that got my attention is the comments he made about inflation and costs rising especially on a day when we've had a reading on inflation. the fact that it's not just tariffs, it's also a stronger economy and that they've seen raw materials increasing in price, even before the tariffs were put in place really sort of stokes the whole inflation >> it's a reminder berkshire as a company is this enormous footprint on the u.s. economy so he can kind of see that stuff
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bubbling up the cost pressures and pricing power and things like that and clearly it's made an impression right now. he moves a tremendous amount of stuff, obviously, with the rail road, even moving energy with pipelines, so it's all right in front of him and i think that makes sense. he's seen many cycles and has a sense of how they're trending. >> not a surprise that apple was really one of the first things that becky discussed with warren apple's up about 0.5%, the biggest holding at berkshire and what warren buffett talked about the degree to which he's been buying recently or not take a listen. >> i bought just a little bit. i like to buy them cheaper we started buying or i started buying it kind of as fast as i could. for one thing, if is goes down, apple is going to buy a lot of stock back they're already buying stock back and if it goes down 10% if
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means they get to buy 10% more shares so i am benefited going down if i were to talk my book, i would talk it down >> bob pisani is with us as well classic buffett. >> if i was talking my book i would talk it down and he goes on a rant how wonderful apple is that he owns 5% of the company could we put up apple's intraday stock price. it was at $2,023.65 and spiked to $2,023.85, the initial spike on the site. what's that worth? he owns 240 million time 20 cents, $50 million in six, seven minutes. that's talking down your book. pretty good. >> i think the fact that he simply said he remains a buyer is probably all he had to say. in other words, it wasn't so much that here's why i think apple is great it's that i don't feel like i own enough and that might be the
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one thing that the market -- but yes your point >> if i was talking my book i would talk it down and proceeds to talk about his book let's all pay attention. i'm not suggesting that he pressed the digitation going on but look what happened there >> his point was about the utility of the iphone in particular >> we all agree. >> feels it's underpriced. rather give up his airplane than his ipad >> yeah, yeah, okay. i think it was important to reiterate stocks are more attractive than bonds. mike, you and i have talked many times, long-term return for the s&p return 9% with the dividends, long-term returns on long dated government bonds 5%, 6%, depending on the time period he was stating an historical fact it's important to reiterate an investor like him believes long-term stocks are still the place to be. >> i also think and becky did press him on this, is the only reason that stocks are more attractive over a very long
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horizon because you're comparing them to what you can get for bonds. he was careful i think a couple of times to resist the opportunity to say this market is a screaming buy right here. >> i thought the thing that was missing was every comment had limitations as to why he would buy more on packaged goods, airlines keeping it below the cap, on apple, because it's gotten a little more expensive >> yes, and i think that eight or nine years into a market advanced valuations being what they are, the fact that he has all this cash and not necessarily seen a compelling thing to buy at the moment yet does basically tell you this is where we are in the cycle. his history usually for most of it has been when things seem depressed, other people are forced to buy or feel forced to buy he's willing to be there as a buyer. to sell, rather, sorry >> i think it's important he clarified the quarterly reports thing as well. he does not like guidance but okay with the quarterly reports. we had this gigantic debate when
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the president came out and talked about it. warren buffett is clear he likes quarterly reports. we had a big debate about this the sec exists partly because they mandated quarterly reports in 1934, when the sec was created, because of the problems they had with getting information from companies in the '20s the '20s and '30s to prevent fraud, make sure people know what's going on. i think it was an important clarification. >> stay here both of you we're going to continue the conversation, dig in further more reaction at post 9. doug cohen, and on the news line, former hedge fund manager jeff matthews who wrote books "secrets in plain sight" as well as "warren buffett's successor, who it is, why it matters. gentlemen, thanks for joining us doug, i'll start with you. as someone that invested in the company, anything you heard from
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warren buffett that changes your the thesis. >> we should all be that vibrant at 88. as pertains to berkshire hathaway, i think there was meaningful news, mike touched on it about mid july they came out, relaxed buy back criteria. fairly modest amount several months, it was a meaningful moment for the stock, it traded better since then. he said this morning they have been buying some stock it was also in regard to apple i thought that was interesting, indicative of his mindset. would almost see it trade down 10%, knowing they could buy back stock. that's more endorsement of buy backs broadly than we heard from warren over time. >> the berkshire b shares are outperforming broader markets, up 12% on all of the buy back news jeff, i want to get your thoughts as well you used to be invested in this
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can be, since sold your stake. what would you call a berkshire bear what was your take away from the interview warren buffett >> i would never be labeled a berkshire bear, i just think the model has issues the main issue being as buffett said in his letter which no one seemed to focus on when it came out that in order to grow earnings substantially, berkshire has to make one or more huge acquisitions that's a symptom of a company that's not compounding its own businesses the way companies like microsoft, apple, amazon are. so that's where my concern comes in >> so the fact that this is a company that's sitting on almost $120 billion in cash now, treasuries and the like, and not putting that money to use, what do you see as the read through on that? >> what do i see as what on that >> how do you interpret that now? >> well, stocks are at all-time highs, right i mean, the valuations are not
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cheap. in my view, way overpaid for precision gas three years ago. anything out there, the elephant he's looking for are very expensive and i don't think it makes sense togg go elephant hunting. when he bought the railroad in 2010, total genius but there aren't too many elephants like that at attractive prices. i don't know what he does with the cash, i would return to shareholders and let them invest in other things that are compounding. >> i want to be careful about attributing causality to his comments on a thin market day. apple is up but sessions low following the comments do you think it has anything to do with this >> warren would reach back from the screen if we started talking "tick by tick" movements i don't think there's much correlation, if there is, it will pass quickly. some comments jeff made were
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quite pertinent. the elephant in the room is $120 billion in cash. what are they doing with that. area they reluctant toggle fa go elephant hunting and to come back to one of mike's key take aways from the conversation, he curbed his enthusiasm. i would never expect him, none of us would, he is not coming on cnbc and say the bull market is over, it is toast, get out, that's not going to happen on the flip side, won't say stocks are a screaming buy in the short term, we're going up 100% he is not going to do that i think reluctance to use that $120 billion in cash is indicative of the fact that he knows the market the equity market is expensive his favorite metric is market cap to gdp all-time highs around 2000 levels i think he would like it to pull back >> he did discuss trade and tariffs, the degree to which
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they're seeing price pressures on things like building materials. listen to that >> we're seeing some effects from that, seeing some effects from inflation we've seen more in the way of cost increases in the last year, if you go across all our businesses but particularly building materials. we sell paint, the can it comes in is more expensive than it was a year ago >> like most people, mike, hard to separate what's just from the economic cycle and what's from tariffs. >> the real take away is the tariffs did not come into place at a time you worried about deflation. it was kind of pushing the same direction as we have had with inflation. not surprised he found that to be the case. again, he captures a lot of the
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economy with the company as long as we point out elephants in the room, under no other circumstance would a company exist in this company or with a market with $120 billion in cash if it weren't warren buffett building it up 60 years and building up this great record at some point the question becomes what long term does the company look like. here's what's fascinating about it it has become the standard thing to say don't think of berkshire hathaway as a stock portfolio, and that's true. but the value of apple stake is 10% of the market cap. amazing. something he started to do two years ago is now 10% of this massive company, built for six decades. >> on trade, i want to remind everyone at the annual meeting, he downplayed the trade tension thing, thought china and the u.s. would work it out and downplayed the trade deficit he had a wonderful line. when you think about it, it is
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not the worst thing in the world for someone to send you things you want and hand them a piece of paper it is destructive to listen to his folksy comments on what trade deficits mean in the global economy he went at it obliquely, didn't use that quote, but important to listen to him on that point. i loved his comment on twitter, by theway. i think all of us would benefit from being less obsessed with twitter and what we had to say, stop thinking we're all so important on our comments. that was a beautiful thing beautiful comment from him >> not everybody says i have nothing to say i put out an annual report >> that's right. his frequency of his opinions doesn't change a lot jay powell, some kind words, calling him not just terrific, saying he is glad jay powell is chairman of the federal reserve. >> i think that speaks to a lot of different things. i think the importance of the fed in the bull market and unwind of the unprecedented quantitative easing. the fed matters, and what you
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heard is buffett's respect for the integrity and fact that he thinks that jay powell will act on his convictions, not yield to outside pressure. >> didn't have too much time for discussion of rates or impact on housing, pending homes down seven months in a row. what do you think his view is generally on that? >> buffett's view? >> yes. >> my guess is that rates inch up, continue to inch up gradually. probably the biggest wildcard for equities now, and that comes back to valuations, if we see a regime change inflation and interest rates, these premium valuations are going to come under a lot of different pressure, all indications, this is why the market reaction was positive to powell in jackson hole, most indications are that inflation is not really ticking up that dramatically rates should stay relatively stable but probably the biggest wildcard for equities. >> he would also say apropos of nothing, stocks are cheaper than real estate as well.
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that was interesting made that at the top of the comment. not only is stocks a better deal than bonds, a better deal than real estate now. >> jeff, i know you mentioned the fact that berkshire is trying to buy back a little stock. one of the issues you had is that the businesses haven't been compounding earnings i guess what do you see as the next steps that the company needs to take now, is there something that would incentivize you to be a shareholder again? >> far be it for me to offer advise to warren buffett, he is a national treasure, built a great company over a long period of time. i think he now has a collection of businesses that's wrong for the way the world has gone he famously avoided technology most of his career, is getting on the bandwagon late. he doesn't own businesses that compound his eight largest businesses
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last year pretax earnings 1% that's the guts of the problem i think there will be a major restructuring sometime down the road when he is no longer ceo, when charlie monger is not vice chairman i think things change in a big way. i would like to see younger guys at the helm. >> well, gentlemen, we will leave it there thank you all for joining us today. we're going to get more from oracle of omaha in a bit first, a cnbc exclusive. box ceo aaron levie joins us and waiting for more on the canada, u.s. trade talks back in a minute equity trades . so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95.
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including interview with whitney tilson in a few moment. box's annual box conference is in san francisco. aaron levie is with josh lipton. >> good morning, carl and eric thank you for joining us i want to dig into the earnings report investors were disappointed, stock closed down 10%. one concern is whether you all were moving the goalpost a bit you had a $1 billion target that was out there, and we had been talking about that as the run rate metric for fiscal '21 now talking about it for '22 walk us on what's going on. >> we have always talked about the full year of fiscal '22 being the first full year over a billion dollars in revenue we previously talked about the moment we surpass the run rate, hit the run rate of a billion in
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revenue, which wouldn't be a full year of revenue at a billion, which was the earlier milestone. what we wanted to do is give a solution sales strategy, add on strategy, big deal growth metrics, didn't want to pinpoint the specific quarter we plan t hit that billion dollar run rate, however, we did commit to and recommit to being able to achieve over a billion in revenue in fy '22 which is what we previously talked about. >> why can't you be more precise for people looking, they want to know when you hit that my question is, is that because you made changes, you referenced the sales force. is that causing delays you didn't initially see coming? >> as we were looking two years out, it is harder to get a complete picture of the quarter in which we plan to hit that billion dollar metric. run rate again as we get closer to that moment, i think we have more clarity when to guide to that specific run rate metric, though we are fully confident in surpassing
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that billion revenue in '22. that is unchanged. we're early in but seeing successful signs of modern and updated go to market strategy which is about ensuring customers are able to deploy the full breadth of box's capabilities we did 50 deals over $100,000 compared to 40 the year prior. 11 deals over $500,000 compared to 8 the year prior. you're seeing good progress on those metrics. >> i could see some asking he beat on q 2, he is mentioning the strong pipeline, deals over 100,000. why was the guide then, aaron, basically roughly in line with what consumers are looking for, are you as confident with those? >> we are confident in upcoming quarters and our ability to reaccelerate growth next year. we plan to reaccelerate on a billings basis end of this year. our business is becoming more seasonal because of a bigger deal nature of the customers we
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are serving, means it is a back end loaded year for us in q4 we are seeing it show up in numbers a bit. that is probably in part driving the conservative guide you reference in q3. fully accelerate growth into fiscal '20 that starts february next year. >> the way box works, this is your customer conference, one interesting bit of news, you're making it easier to integrate box with different productivity suites, office, g suite, i work. tell me what it means for box's business. >> our job is to be an open and integrated platform in all of the apps our customers are using. we help 69% of fortune 500 store, secure, manage critical information. customers like general electric, eli lily, pfizer, they want one source of truth for data but
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connect that information to all applications they're using this conference we updated and announced new partnerships with service now, updated our partnership with slack, we announced new integrations with google suite, we announced new integrations with office 365 we want to be sure the customers want to access data from anywhere, any application, any device anywhere around the world, we are fully integrated in all the services they're using. partnerships are core to our business >> morgan here good to speak with you i want to get your take on the specific ai driven box skills products we have seen the stock run up earlier this year, lot of investor enthusiasm around this. in terms of when you expect new products to specifically have an impact on the business, what's your time line >> yeah, so we announced yesterday in our main keynote
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that box skills kit, the tool kit that let's you build ai driven services will be generally available to customers in december. we see it as a moment where customers will be able to bring ai services from ibm watson, google, microsoft directly to their content inbox, see it as catalyst for customers moving content to the cloud, being able to drive automated business processes with information the impact will be more next year, but we are seeing it become a more significant reason customers are standardizing on box for the full cloud content management which is really important. >> i want to talk about another thing we are touching on at cnbc, clearly a lot of big te n tech in the cross hairs of lawmakers. i want to get your thought i remember back in march you tweeted in response to cambridge analytica. i remember you said something to the effect of regulation is coming >> yeah. >> and probably for the best since then, obviously, more evidence of platform abuse, twitter taking criticism for
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alex jones, president trump going after google regularly now. how is your thinking evolving since the tweet about tech and potential regulation on the way? >> i think the president's tweets aside, i think it is really important that whether it is businesses or consumers use the internet, they have full control of their data, know how their information is used, whether for advertising purpose or news that they're seeing, and whether that is modern forms of regulation or the industry sort of adopting standards across the board how they're using information or gdpr from europe. i think there needs to be updated ways of thinking about privacy, data security, and protection in the digital age, and this is fundamental to box but also fundamental right for any internet user. >> quick response, aaron, we have people come on all the time, some say listen, on the left hand, big tech is too big. >> yeah. >> it is broken up make them into public utilities. what's your response >> i think that that could
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curtail innovation we see from the industry that could be challenging the outcome. in general, providing more rights and protections for consumers and their data, whether those are consumers on the personal or business side, is really important. i don't know that it means they have to become public utilities, but we have to completely rethink how we are treating privacy and data protection in the digital age. >> thank you for your time you were generous. appreciate it. guys, back to you. >> very good stuff thanks, josh josh lipton at box works. long time buffett watcher whitney tilson is with us, talking about the interview a few minutes ago. dow down 117 s & p down almost 10 >> cost me a lot, a million dollars a year or something of the sort if i used the iphone, i use an ipad a lot
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if i use the iphone like all of my friends do, i would rather give up the plane a million navajo year, the iphone is enormously underpriced, now it has competition, you can't push the price. in terms of the utility of people and what they get for a thousand dollars someplace else, have a dinner party could cost that here this and what it does for you, it is incredible. ♪ hawaii is in the middle of the pacific ocean. we're the most isolated population on the planet. ♪ hawaii is the first state in the u.s. to have 100% renewable energy goal. we're a very small electric utility. but, if we don't make this move
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here's what's coming up at the top of the hour. the buffett download, debating what the oracle of omaha said about stocks, apple and the economy. plus, our call of the day comes from one of our very own jim lebenthal on what he is buying and selling. we'll do it at noon, carl, 15 minutes away. >> scott, thanks buffett sat down a few moments ago, indicating he is buying back his own stock. take a listen. >> we bought back a little, yes. and we tie it to intrinsic business value which we should have done a while, didn't describe intrinsic value but tracked it, it was a reasonable proxy, and it has gotten to have less and less important moving to operating business from
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investment what really counts is what the business is worth along with securities we own, and if it is a discount to that figure, charlie and i will buy and we bought some >> joining us on the news line, long time buffett watcher whitney tilson, founded and ran case capital management nearly two decades, has been to the last 21 berkshire annual shareholder meetings hard to do buffett, not follow it with you. thanks for the time. >> my pleasure, thanks for having me. >> sounds like you think the buy back is the lead here? >> yes we and other shareholders have been sort of urging buffett and monger to not be locked into a 1.2 times quote value for share repurchases, but instead to give two of the world's greatest investors flexibility to use their judgment as to when it is attractive to buy berkshire stock versus many other things
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they can do with enormous cash hoard and cash flows we were delighted to see the announcement a few months ago they were going to give themselves more flexibility there, and then today i believe it is the first time buffett disclosed they bought back any shares above 1.2 times book. i think this is a major material new piece of information because it means that he has been buying back stock at 1.4 times book at least, which is where the stock has traded since then. so i think there's a new soft floor in berkshire stock, north of $300,000 a share. i was delighted to see that. >> and whitney, in terms of the cash pile, $120 billion, starting to buy back some shares of the company and that is big news, but how would you envision some of that money being put to use now, in light of comments about stock valuations and other asset valuations, do you think
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it sitting in a while for the most part makes sense? >> i honestly think, keep in mind, not just 120 billion of cash, but a couple billion a month that's pouring into omaha from berkshire's trilliextremel profitable investment and dividends. it is a high class problem and buffett and munger acknowledged in the annual letter and again today that valuations are not super attractive he is buying back a little berkshire stock, buying a little more apple stock he disclosed, not seeing much in consumer goods companies which i agree with, but he certainly is hoping to bag some more elephants before it is said and done it is a tough environment. he said in the annual letter human nature hasn't changed. there will be panic out there again. when it rains gold, we will be out there with very big wash tubs to harvest that gold. >> yes
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and you heard enough of his commentary over the years, whitney, to know when his juices are really flowing and he wants to put that money to work. you mention comments on packaged goods. he talked about keeping his airline holdings under a certain cap, talked about pricing pressures in paint and building materials. you put all of that together, is it a surprise that the market to the degree it is reacting to him has reacted the way it has >> you know, i don't think he dropped any bombs today in terms of interviews. he loves apple, he is having trouble putting money to work, he likes the airlines but is capped out all of that is old news. the real news, the stock that should be moving on the news today in my opinion is berkshire hathaway itself. the stock is super cheap we estimated it is about a 90 current dollar today, intrinsic value north of $350,000 per
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share. call it up 10% from here but there was an old floor at 1.2 times book, but that's way down at $261,000 per a share today hedisclosed it, he was buying back shares north of $300,000 a share i think has created a much more attractive risk-reward dynamic here where the down side is no longer, the floor is no longer $260,000 a share, it's probably 305 or so which is my estimate about where he was probably buying it. so now you've got one of the most attractive companies growing at intrinsic value that's 10% under value, not screaming cheap but there's a new floor in here. it's not a hard floor. i think there's strong indication that he could be buying back tens ever billions of dollar of stock and put it back on the floor.
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that's major news. >> i see berkshire shares a third of your friends family portfolio. would you be a buyer here? are you buyingmore >> you know, to the extent some more friends and family give me some more capital to invest alongside my own capital, i'm going to be doing some privately managed accounts for mostly friends and family at this point. i still love the money management game even though i'm no longer running a hedge fund when i closed mine after 20 years, last september, and so i'll definitely be buying berkshire -- i'm not going to make berkshire more than one-third of my stock portfolio. i'm still sitting on a bunch of cash as well i'm a little like buffett. not a super attractive environment. not a third of my entire net worth. i definitely would be continuing to buy berkshire with new capital to keep it as a third of
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my stock portfolio but i think that's plenty big right now and i think it's bigger if it got much cheaper. >> finally, it sounds you think he's going running this for the next five years? >> well, isaid that a few year ago because, you know, when someone starts, in their mid to late 80s, you know, i estimated -- i said two or three years ago, i looked at actuarial tables and buffetts physical and mental health and there's an 80% chance he's still running berkshire in five years. we're now probably three years into that. from what i've seen at the berkshire meetings, from what i've seen today he's absolutely sharp as a tack. he's getting better with age as an investor. mentally he's still all there. even better than ever, i think so, i would still repeat, even though three years have now elapsed he's now 88, i would
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still repeat there's an 80% chance he's berkshire ceo five years from now. keep in mind charlie munger is slowing down but mentally there's a meeting in february in los angeles. he's still sharp as a tack and so i think berkshire shareholders don't have to worry about what berkshire will be like post-buffett for another five years >> amazing they got to bottle the water in omaha and sell it around the country. thanks as always we're back in a minute
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amazon market cap as it nears a trillion within $20 billion. needs to get to 20.50. dow is down 106. back in a moment
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the economy really since the fall of 2009 has progressively gotten better but it started from a very low base it started from panic. and we now have had nine, very soon -- we got nine full years of improvement in business i mean quarter by quarter. sometimes it looks 1% or 1.25%, sometimes 2.5, now it looks even better than that but business is good >> certainly buffett has been reading stories about corporate profits in at least the last quarter. >> absolutely. even with the insurance but especially when you exclude the
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insurance businesses there's no company that's more exposed to the american economy in term of the railroad, the manufacturing, industrial, consumer goods, et cetera for him to make that comment really i think speaks volumes. >> interviews with buffett has layers of intri kntricacies welcome to the "halftime report". i'm scott wapner top trade, we're still buying stocks that's the word from the world's most famous investor, warren buffett a conversation that began with mr. buffett on the markets >> you have your choice between buying and holding a 30 year bond for 30 years or holding a basket of american stocks. there's just no question you'll do better owning stocks it's mor

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