welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines moody's warns a no-deal brexit will damage britain's economic and financial strength as cabinet members gather for crunch talks. european equities follow asia higher after the white house reaches out to beijing to set up another round of trade talks. >> treasury department is in communication with china i don't want to get detailed i'm just saying we're in

communication right now. you could say that communication has picked up a notch. >> natxis announces a plan to sell several specialized businesses and authorities in the carolinas warn of gas shortages and power outages as hurricane florence prepares to make landfall tomorrow. welcome to "street signs." it is thursday, it is central bank day a bunch of meetings coming up later. first i want to talk about what's happening in energy overnight. so just looking at some of the price action we have crude trading close to $70. brent very close to that $80 mark, almost at $80. again the tension has been building over the last couple of weeks or so, not only because of

the hurricane that is approaching, but because of other supply constraints going on on that topic specifically, it is 9:00 a.m., so the iea just released their latest report for the month. let's go over the highlights first, they are pointing to record august global supply coming out of the energy complex. that's 100 million barrels per day on the supply side opec supply is at a nine-month high that shouldn't be much of a surprise given the vienna agreement, if there with attention on opec members to increase production to cover sho shortfalls demand forecasts are unchanged, but the iea cited certain risks around em currencies, depreciation and some trade tariff discussions going on. as ever i'm happy to say neil atkinson joins us. it's interesting because the last time we spoke oil was trading at $70, we're up to $80.

what do you point that down to >> well, we've seen over the last month or so the fact that the data for sanctions against iran has gotten closer, a falloff in supply from venezuela. we're approaching a position where the market might be getting tighter the later part of this year the price action we've seen represents that. and also, of course, demand, though the growth recently has been a bit slower, overall demand is still growing fairly strongly >> and actually just picking up on one key paragraph from the iea report, you're saying we're entering a crucial period for the oil market things are tightening up does that mean you envision oil prices overshooting $80?

>> the market is expected to tighten during the later part of this year because if iran's exports do fall by a considerable volume, we'll rely on our producers to increase output to make up for that of course iran is not the only major producer where a change is on the way we have ongoing month on month falls in production in venezuela. people should not overlook that or underestimate the importance of that. having said that, we have seen in recent months production from other countries, saudi arabia, russia, iraq, their production has increased quite strongly, and it's highly possible that their output will increase yet again moving through towards the rest of the year of course they do have significant spare capacity it's a question of waiting to see in the next few weeks how the period in the run up to november 4th, how that plays out. then we'll have a clearer idea as to where prices might go.

>> how much production and also drop in exports are you expecting from iran once the sanctions come into play >> there's no way of knowing how much exports will fall it's pure speculation to put a figure on it at the moment as we say in the report we've already seen reductions in uranium shipments to europe, china and india and some other countries, too. we just have to wait and see what the outcome is of the discussions that the u.s. government has had with other countries, we'll see what that number is. >> yesterday geoff spoke to the russian energy oil minister, he told us that he expects there to be about a $5 to $6 premium in terms of the total oil price on the back of the trade discussions going on, particularly the tariff discussions going to on between

the u.s. and china do you think that premium is an accurate assessment of the situation? >> i don't want to speculate on how much prices might rise or fall depending on events that might or might not happen. we do warn in this month's oil market report that there are two factors that might impact on the demand side. number one, stress in some of the emerging economies we have seen high interest rates. we've seen major currency devaluations that could, if the situation deteriorates, lead to a reduction in economic activity and less oil demand. the other issue which we do mention is trade disputes. we heard just before we came on air that the u.s. and china are talking again. but if there is not a resolution to the dispute, and the dispute were to worsen, that again could have an impact on global oil demand so we have to wait and see how these two factors on the demand

side play out. but those factors on the demand side are more likely to lead to demand growth weakening rather than growing that is likely to be a deflationary factor as far as the oil prices are concerned to offset the supply side >> finally, with hurricane florence about to hit the united states, i know it's too early to assess the impact, have you done analysis on the likely impact it could have on production facilities and pipelines in that part of the world? >> it's unlikely to have much impact on oil production, because there's limited oil production in that part of the u.s. as far as refining is concerned, in the immediate carolinas region there's not a great deal of oil refining activity it's not as if the hurricane is hitting the gulf coast again as far as damage to major oil industry installations are

concerned, it's likely that will be limited on the ground normal activitact normal life will be interrupted. we may see the interruption into local fuels, but we'll have to see how the hurricane lands, the impact, and hope people are safe >> thank you that was neil atkinson from the iea. stay tuned for more hurricane florence coverage. we will head live to the carolina coast later in the show let's look at how markets are faring this morning. we had somewhat of a more positive session in asian equities overnight we'll get into that shortly. the main story is that the trump administration has invited chinese officials to restart trade talks, which is given somewhat of a boost to markets overnight. stoxx 600, we're been open a little over an hour.

trading up 0.3%. let's get into the individual european markets it is a big day for european markets as far as central banks are concerned. starting with the bank of england. that comes up in a couple hours time they're not expected to do much on the monetary policy side. the main focus is the political back b backdrop the index is trading weaker on the day, down 10 points. german and french indices trading up in the green, slightly firmer to the tune of 0.5%, 0.4% respectively. italy is also trading firmer as we head into the ecb meeting, they're not expected to make big decisions as far as qe is concerned, or interest rates, monetary policy, but the market will no doubt be looking for more clues on what the actual exit plan is on quantitative easing, perhaps more clues on how the ecb are thinking about

the economy. we'll keep an eye on that. switching back to sectors, so we can see where some of the leadership is coming from, no surprise the trade sensitive sector, autos are leading the charge, up 1.5%. technology is also up 0.9% it's been a good couple of days for technology, bucking the trend of last week helped by apple, even though apple after its big launch day yesterday as a share price traded a bit softer, but generally speaking technology has been doing better. also have media and household goods lagging. natxis shares are trading higher after announcing plans to sell several business lines to bpce the proceeds are expected to total 2.7 billion euros and they will be used for acquisitions. the ceo said the move would boost its financial fire power

elsewhere, michelin has backed its 2018 guidance despite a slowdown in china and negative currency effects the tiremaker says growth in europe is helping to offset other weak areas michelin's 2018 financial outlook is in line with global competitors. and switching to supermarkets morrisons has beaten first half profit expectations as it reported its 11th straight quarter of sales growth. the fourth larger grocer benefited from a decision to expand its business into wholesale while a hot summer and the world cup also provided tailwinds. morrisons says it will pay special dividends of 2 pence per share. the trump administration has proposed a fresh round of trade talks with chinese officials aimed at solving their ongoing trade dispute. the discussions would come as president trump threatens more tariffs on 2$200 billion worth o chinese goods.

while speaking outside the white house, trump's top economic adviser said communication with china had improved >> treasury department is in communication with china i can't go beyond that i done want to gei don't want t ahead of that curve, but they're in communication with china. if they come to the table in a serious way to generate some positive results, of course. what we've been asking for for months and months that's what the president has been asking for for months and months. >> does this represent a thaw? >> i don't want to put adjectives, i tonight want to get into details i'm saying we're in communication now. you could say that communication has picked up a notch. china's commerce ministry confirmed beijing received an invitation for further trade talks from the u.s. ministry

spokesman, and says the two sides are in constant communication regarding their trade spats. he added the ministry believes china and the u.s. don't want to see the trade war escalate. the final trades have come through on the hang seng nancy hungerford has more. looks like a positive session. >> yes, something we have not seen in a few days here. green across the board for these asian markets today, with the australian market being the one exception. otherwise you can see the hope expressed in the markets when it comes to the fact that china and the u.s. are set to restart talks, at least the u.s. extended an invitation to keep those talks going. you can see that is good news across the board you are seeing the nikkei 225 up almost 1%. it's already had a strong week, up % week to date so far the big story is around the

greater china markets. the hang seng is the big comeback story of the day. it's higher by 2.5% at the close. that is significant. now the hang seng is back out of bear market territory. it hit the milestone earlier this week. many wondering, yes, there's trade optimism but a few investors said things got too sold off here and they wanted to go in and do bargain hunting the shanghai closing firmly higher by more than 1%. i want to check the forex markets. 6.8492 when it comes to the offshore trade, it was higher earlier in the session. the central bank did set the yuan a bit higher on the session, too that could be perceived by the white house as well. we know they don't want china to use the currency in a trade war or trade fight coming up

you have to wonder if the white house was looking at the strong dollar and thinking this doesn't bode well if we do want to boost exports. so now the two sides are interested in coming together. you mentioned how china's commerce ministry said in the last hour that neither side wants to see an escalation, but they also said blackmail from the u.s. won't work. it's not completely kumbaya yet, but talking is better than no talking at all >> and at least the yuan is moving in the right direction. canada's foreign minister, chrystia freeland says more work needs to be done before holding a new round of trade discussions with the u.s she confirmed she won't return to washington today for talks at renegotiating nafta. the two countries remain far apart on reaching an agreement, specifically arguing over canadian cultural protections and u.s. access to canada's dairy market we discussed a lot if you have views on the

hurricane, oil, renminbi, you name it, get involved. tweet us at @streetsignscnbc. coming up, it's crunch time for cabinet ministers yet again. more from downing street's brexit summit when we return for your heart... your joints... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. man: are unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you everywhere? it's time to take back control with stelara®.

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welcome back moody's says the chances of a no-deal brexit have increased adding such an event would damage the uk's economic and fiscal strength. they added the two sides are still unlilikely to reach a tra agreement. cabinet ministers have been meeting this morning to discuss a no-deal brexit contingency plan willem is outside downing street it's interesting timing from moody's and the fact it happens to coincide with the date that cabinet ministers are meeting to discuss the no-deal brexit plan. the reality is we don't know what that plan is, do we >> we will get more details

later today. we are expecting to hear about more impacts on potential consumers in the uk if there were to be no deal, things like passports, driving licenses and mobile phone roaming fees. so there will be something that people can understand what the impact would be if no agreement is reached by the end of march next year. in terms of the cabinet meeting, they will talk about future plans. they faced criticism over the past year when it came to that contingency planning in terms of future trade, that's something that seemingly theresa may is getting traction with in brussels we heard from joean-claude juncker that he was happy with the proposals around a free-trade area. she quoted him in the house of commons yesterday. in terms of the face of the struggles she faces within her own party, that's not something we should forget there are a large number of

conservative mps not happy with the checkers proposal. there are high-profile tories who are still backing theresa may even though they say they don't like the policy she's putting forward. but this announcement from moody's significant talking about things like uk-based companies in automotive, aerospace and chemical spaces will be affected land rover talking about the effects of a no-deal scenario. weaker house prices are also likely if there's no-deal. and banks, asset quality and profitability will also likely decline. a lot to digest for the government we heard from philip hammond last night talking about the impact that a no-deal would have on the country's economy his cabinet colleague, dominic raab speaking this morning saying he's confident they will be able to strike a deal with brussels >> i want to pick up on dominic

raab's comments. one thing he said is that he doesn't believe the parliament will lose the vote on the negotiated brexit deal i don't know if that's misplaced optimism or not, but many people are saying in its current form it will be impossible for the checkers deal to get passed in parliament what do we think of the future of the checkers deal in its current format >> the proof will be in the pudding when it's put to vote. there are a lot of malcontents within the party, they don't agree with certain aspects of the proposal the critics of those critics say they have not offered workable solutions, specifically with regard to northern ireland so the binary deal raab has been talking about is between that deal that was put forward and a no-deal. we are hearing how damaging a no-deal will be. they hope that will force those not happy with the checkers

proposal to swallow it either way. >> we have the bank of england meeting coming up later at 1 12:00. definitely will be watching for signals on any of the political considerations from the committee. sterling is trading through 130, so it does price in somewhat of an optimistic outcome as far as the brexit discussions are concerned. leavt a deal the central bank is widely tipped to keep rates and monetary policy unchanged at today's meeting. we have bank of england, we have the central bank of turkey and the ecb, of course following a string of weak summer indicators some analysts predict the ecb could lore iwer

growth outlook annette is outside the ecb in frankfurt. today is not really expected to be much of a market moving ecb per se, but i think the expectation is that they may lower growth forecasts for this year tonight you think it would be difficult for them to justify the actions taken in june if they sound too dovish on the outlook? >> yeah. i don't think he'll go as far as being completely dovish and completely negative about the economic outlook if you go through the speeches of recent public appearance, the ecb is still optimistic, very optimistic even for the economic outlook. they're still thinking that the economy or the recovery is intact and they even go as far as saying that recent developments in wage growth is surprisingly positive also for the inflation

outlook. if you look at the prime mandate, inflation is the issue. and what we could get today is also somewhat higher inflation outlook which could mean that some people could think that a first interest rate hike could be earlier than previously expected if innation would really -- was really to pick up. clearly, yes, the economic picture is showing signs of weakness somewhat, but still the ecb remains quite optimistic when it comes to the economy another big focus area today is the investment policy and whether we get more hints about what they're going to do with their reinvestments in the next year clearly it will be a market moving factor whether they go in shorter-term maturities, when it

comes to the sizable reinvestment volume next year. for now we don't know it perhaps mario draghi may give away more details even though a lot of analysts don't expect too much here. but that would be the new thing, the reinvestment theme clearly the third theme will be interest rate guidance, befowhe we get more update on the window for the first interest rate hike whether we get an update here. again, three big themes, of course the additional ones coming through the press conference which is italy and the italian budget, turkey, emerging markets, you name it. there will be all different topics during the press conference back to you. >> all covered during our decision time. we'll come out to you in a few hours time just on the topic of forward guidance, it's interesting that the timing of the first rate

hike has not moved since june. the first ten basis point hike is not priced in until december 2019 we'll come back to you shortly do tune in to our decision time special, that's from 12:55 cet. we'll bring you all the interest rates announcements from the ecb, the bank of england and the central bank of turkey also coming up, apple ceo tim cook says the latest edition of the iphone is available to more people than before, but the devices are bigger and pricier than before.

welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines moody's warn about a no-deal brexit. european equities follow asian equities higher after the white house reaches out to beijing to have another round of trade talks. >> the treasury department is in

communication with china i don't want to get into details. i'm just saying we're in communication now. you could say that communication picked up a notch. natxis jumps to the top of the stoxx 600 after announcing a plan to sell several specialized businesses. authorities in the carolinas warn of gas shortages and power outages as hurricane florence prepares to make landfall tomorrow asian markets were trading in the green on optimism that chinese officials may be meeting with the trump administration to find some solution to the ongoing trade discussions. that has helped lift japanese equities and chinese equities. the picture in europe is more mixed. ftse 100 is trading in the red

a bit softer ahead of the bank of england meeting coming up down about 17 points, a quarter of a percentage point there. german index is up a half percentage point cac 40 is up 0.3%. ftse mib is lagging somewhat, it was trading firmer 10, 15 minutes ago that seems to be dropping south as we head into that meeting lots of speculation about the rhetoric that will come out of draghi and what they'll say about growth and the italian political situation. switching to foreign exchange, look at how some of the major currencies are trading, let's start off by talking about the euro, trading weaker going into that meeting generally speaking euro versus dollar is weaker than the last time they released their economic projections versus other currencies, on a trade weighted basis euro is stronger dollar/yen, yen trading weaker that's helped the nikkei

overnight as well. cable still hovering around that 13 1.30 mark. 1.3040 moody's suggesting a no-deal brexit ways would be credit negative finally dollar/renminbi. renminbi is moving in the right direction, in this morning a bit stronger versus the dollar on anticipation that the u.s. and china will find some resolve so their differences on the trade side of things u.s. futures dow is seen opening up about 35 points higher. nasdaq about 5 points higher it was a big tech day yesterday as far as apple was concerned. but let's talk more about that a new line of iphones dominated apple's latest product launch last night but the devices are bigger and pricier than ever before arjun has more >> i want to run you through the

products announced by apple yesterday. the iphone xs, the next generation of the iphone x, a 5.8 inch oled screen, it has apple's new chip in it, the a12 bionic, it's all about ai and the camera capabilities. it has marginally better battery life than the iphone x it starts at $999. the next one up from that is the iphone xs max, this is the biggest screen to date it has the largest battery to date it's got dual sim, the same processor and features than the 10s, but it's much more higher priced because of the bigger screen the next one is the iphone xr, this is weep is cheap by apple

standards. it has a 6.1 inch lcd screen it has the same processor, the new processors as the x and the xs so the final device in that lineup is the apple watch series 4. larger screen, of course more capabilities when it comes to health and fitness these are key use cases for the wearable technology. that starts at $399. >> thank you very much for that. we have daniel gleason on the set with us as well. what do you make of yesterday's announcements? it seems they're making on a middle of the range $750 market which is undercutting some of the competition, even some of the existing iphones >> in relative to what the iphone x is, it's cheaper, but

compared to what previous iphones were in 2010, 2015 this is actually pretty much the standard flagship price. for apple's point of view, they would have looked at the success of the iphone x, it would have increased their revenue. what they're hoping is that this will provide that jump in volume sales that they didn't see last year without sacrificing any of that price improvement >> what does that mean for margins? if they're making essentially the same product but at $250 cheaper price, that will eat into the brogross margins. >> apple being apple, they will make sure they don't have that the difference in the screen technology is a big factor there. lcd is cheaper than oled oled is extremely expensive technology for handsets. that alone makes a difference. there's a lot of other little

finishes within theat that will reduce the cost. >> apple released the se and the 5c in china, they were cheaper twices what are the prospects of this in china as apple sees recovery if that region >> one big thing apple is doing for china is recognizing they don't want to compete with huawei, vivo, these brands that are putting out excellent devices at 300, 400, 500 dollars. zaire s they're saying we'll rely on our brand strength, apple is a big brand in china with a huge brand premium, and we won't cheapen ourselves to reach more people,

but we'll rely on that brand strength, build on that and build profitability. >> we focussed a lot on the price, the oled screens, one interesting feature that has been introduced is the dual simand the e-sim, electronic sim. does this mean they will start their own carrier business as you look at e-simas a new business model for apple, what kind of opportunities does it hole >> e-simhas opportunities for apple. out of any company in the world, any handset manufacturer, apple has the best opportunity to do something with e-sim because its devices are so expensive, it's hugely reliant on carriers, stores and operators to provide financing for many handsets. very few handsets are budget for full price on day one.

with the two-year contract spread out over two years. so they would need to replace a lot of that mechanism and do more of its own financing, taking on more of the personal debt element of it, which is kind of risky and probably not something apple shareholders would look kindly on >> bringing it back to the launch from yesterday. we had an analyst on the show who said what's actually happening with apple is they're becoming more evolutionary rather than revolutionary, which is a good point. have we reached peak innovation as far as the smartphone technology is concerned? there's only so much they can add. they have made the screen a bit bigger, perhaps the processing speed faster where is the incremental value going to come from what is the incentive for you to upgrade from your iphone 9 to the x or xr? >> one of the big things is the apple's ai technology which they

showed off last night. in particular, how it relates to augmented reality. if you watched the keynote they had a nice demonstration of a realtime analyzing of a basketball player, that's the kind of thing that if there's built more content around ar, that's a compelling new case, a different type of experience to our consumers. it's the kind of thing apple and other handset manufacturers have to look at building new experiences, and something operators need to look at in terms of how do we make this possible ar could be a huge driver for 5g which will be launching next year those are things i expect all handset manufacturers and others to gather together to build out killer apps, build out new experiences for consumers quickly.

what do you think the biggest headwind would be to apple's business going forward we know it's one of two companies in the world that reached that $1 trillion valuation. people are pointing out that amazon did it quicker than apple did. it took apple twice the amount of time in terms of the last 12 months, price action to get there versus amazon. what do you think the major concern is as far as the company's outlook? >> my major concern for apple is that despite, you know, all the folks on services, on the watch, on the other devices, iphone is still by far its most important product in terms of revenue. it's more than two-thirds of its overall revenue. and when you look at a market where the premium market in that segment fully penetrated, there's very little growth, you know, and apple itself has seen volume sales static over the past couple of years that's the worry

that iphone revenue line may not be moving a huge amount more and we need to see more coming from the watch in particular this year. we need to see more growth in services we need to see more different products apple moving into the smart home in a bigger way. pushing and expanding its portfolio. >> that's something you've been eluding to as well, arjun, on the services side. they need to emphasize that part of the business more >> especially the smartphone market is slowing. unit sales are not growing if they can keep people with iphones, draw more money out of them by subscription services, that's where some of that growth will come from >> we'll keep an eye out arjun, thank you for joining us. apple's new lineup may be more expensive than ever, but the tech giant is betting buyers will scoop up one of its new models head to cnbc.com to find out which one. corporate news for you

shares in adyen have slumped after a placement of shares was placed through an accelerated book build offering. the offering was priced below 670 per share. almost 2.5 million shares were placed in the offering the stock seems to be down 10% on the day liam fox is currently taking questions in the house of commons. this comes as cabinet ministers meet to discuss a no-deal brexit scenario we'll keep you updated fr ed wiy news from there. coming up, president erdogan takes control of turkey's sovereign wealth fund. will he keep holding sway over the central bank we're live from istanbul next.

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welcome back turkey's central bank is expected to hike rates by several hundred basis points today. hadley is live in istanbul looking at the range of

estimates, there are analysts out there calling for nothing, some calling for 700 basis points hike. it's all over the place. what do you think the market needs to see >> certainly we've been hearing a lot about something in the midrange, about 300 to 350 basis points in terms of what international investors have been telling us, they hope to see movement from the central bank, any signs that the central bank remains out of the control of the president, president erdogan. he has taken a stronger grip on power in the last year or so he put his son-in-law in charge of the finance ministry and made a lot of statements that made it questionable on whether or not the central bank is independent and a lot of concern about that, not just with international investors but also domestically at home. that raises questions about his continuing popularity. raising interest rates is something people want to see in terms of strengthening the lira, but also questions about what

that can moan goiean going forw. >> just talking about the currency specifically. we were referring to that. it's one of the worst performing emerging market currencies it's deprecated about 30% the last month alone one reason for the decline is the fact that the central bank did not end up hiking rates at the last meeting when the market expected them to do you think we have gotten to the point where the currency is so undervalued that it actually may have a positive impact in terms of turkey's huge current account deficit? it will be a self-correcting mechanism at this point? >> that's a good question. certainly the analysts we've been speaking to over the last several weeks and over the last 24 hours in particular have said in terms of hiking rates, this should have been in line with what the fed has been doing since 2015 he's been behind in terms of moving the economy forward, the

stall bran central bank governor that is. but none of this exists in a vacuum this does have to do with the statements coming from the president, but also what's happening with the geopolitical situation. the tit-for-tat with president trump over the scandal, then you have what happened at the u.s. embassy in washington last year, you have questions over whether or not this u.s. pastor will be released and sent back to the united states. even the nato situation kicks off, we have seen the turks coming out saying they'll go ahead with this purchase of this russian missile defense system so we have heard a lot about turkey's role in the nato community, as a nato member, and none of this exists in a vacuum and is weighing on sentiment >> when a currency crisis becomes a political crisis

we'll see you in a couple hours time moody's says the chances of a no-deal brexit have now increased adding that such an event would damage the uk's economic and fiscal strength the ratings agency added that the two sides are still likely to reach a trade agreement colin ellis from moody's joins us on the line good morning to you. why did you come out with this announcement today why did it take so long for moody's to come up with the assessment this a no-deal brexit would be negative? >> good morning. this is not actually the first time we've said this we published research last year which set out a lot of the transmission channels and risks for different issues in the event of a no-deal brexit. the reason we published this report today is to refresh and renew that analysis.

it's also coming to the point where the risks are in sharp focus. for much of the past two years we've seen periods of progress in terms of negotiations, but also periods of stagnation and now with the run up to the likely eu summit in november where both sides will aim to agree to withdraw and have some political declaration, it feels like a good time to refresh analysis and come back to the market and talk about these risks. >> in your report you say the prospect of a no deal scenario has already risen. what would you place the probability of a no-deal brexit scenario on at this point in time >> we don't assign specific probabilities to the different outcomes frankly those are subjective and very hard to substantiate what we do say in the report that it's hard to know where the point of no return is in terms of the brexit negotiations one of the facts in terms of the

way the negotiation is set up is in principle you could see a breakdown in discussions right now. and then provided both sides did come back in genuine good faith further down the line it would be possible to extend the negotiation period to extend the two-year period if the 27 member states and the uk agree. so one key point we're making here is even though a no-deal outcome does look a bit more likely, it's not our best case we would probably wait until it was very clear that a no-deal outcome would occur before we started considering the longer term implications for credit ratings in the uk. >> you also said a no-deal brexit would be significantly credit negative for a bunch of sectors. can you talk me through which sectors you think would be most exposed? >> of course many corporate sectors would be affected in the event of a no-deal

brexit, everybody is largely familiar with the disruptions you would see in terms of exports and imports on both sides of the channel and with the irish border issue so any firm which is reliant on imports or exports to some degree would face disruption there are also particular sectors where that looks more concentrated because supply chains are so integrated and there are other sectors where it's not just about kind of trading arrangements, the legal basis under which activities take place would cease to exist an obvious example is around airlines, if the uk was not a member of the common aviation area, the legal right to fly to and from europe would not exist. in the case of an outright no-deal exit one of the things we say in the report is some of these

short-term disruptions would be very serious and we would expect policymakers on both sides to try and take steps to mitigate some of that short-term impact >> right >> we cannot know with any certainty what those will be and how effective those will be before this happens. >> we have to leave it there thank you very much for your time that was colin ellis from moody's after releasing a report saying that the probability of a no-deal brexit has risen and it would be negative for an array of issuers hurricane florence has weakened to a category 2 storm but has grown in size as it approaches the u.s. east coast jay gray is live in carolina beach with more. >> good morning. right now the conditions, wind picking up, the surf has definitely grown no rain at this point. we expect it about midday here once it starts it will continue

for quite some time. all of this will intensify over the next 24 hours. the track of the storm is meandering just a bit. still not clear where an when it may make landfall. what is clear is that this storm, florence, has the potential for historic flooding as well as catastrophic damage along the southeastern seaboard here >> jay, thank you for bringing us the latest. we will keep a close eye on the effects of that hurricane. as we mentioned earlier, the impact that it will have on energy as oil approaches $80 today is a big day tune in to our cnbc coverage from 12:55 cet for our bumper decision time special. we'll bring you all of the interest rate announcementses from the ecb, bank of england and the central bank of turkey before we head out, a quick look at u.s. futures and see what the picture is like. dow seen opening up about 30 points higher.

nasdaq about 7 points higher and even though it's a big day for europe, as far as central banks are concerned, in the u.s. watch out for the cpi numbers. the last time we had cpi numbers that sent the fixed income market downwards as we get the ten-year yields close to 3% now. we'll have to keep an eye on that as well let's take one last look at european markets a bit of a mixed picture ftse 100 trading down, could be on the back of that moody's report xetra dax and cac 40 trading green into that decision that's it for the show today i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. this isn't just any moving day.

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it is is 5:00 a.m. in wilmington, north carolina breaking news on hurricane florence some good news, the winds are weakening a bit but do not get complacent the storm continues to pose a major threat to the coast. billions of dollars worth of goods halted at many of the carolina ports as for your money, asia bouncing back in a big way the u.s. jump starting trade talks with china we have another high-level departure to talk to you about at tesla. apple showing off its latest product lineup including a new iphone but i