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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 19, 2018 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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here same with cooling everything has more sugar. >> brpt. >> not when i you first have it and you get used to it and can't go back. right that does it we finished two minutes on that. >> i'm hungry now. >> we meant to summarize markets bus we don't need to because "fast money" takes over soon thank you for joining us morgan. thank you for watching closing money? close "closing bell" "fast money" starts now. >> "fast money" that's the name of the show and starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa lee. pete najarian. tim i sold my tilray seymour tonight tech stocks under pressure despite the broader rally and one small company predicting the rally for the space. plus a stock that has wall street, pizza man, mom and dad talking. tilray practically broke the ticker halted not once, twice,
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three times, five times turning negative at one point before finishing higher by 40%. so crazy we are ditching the bitcoin bug that's out giving you what you want. a tilray bug there we go. we'll be on tilray watch the whole hour and you won't have in any reason to look away from the screen if that doesn't mark the top nothing else will. well have more on the story later in the hour. but first we start off with dreams coming through waiting for the bank stocks to rally check out citigroup. jp morgan and morgan stanley jumping today at rates moved higher are the banks out of purgatory for good pete what do you say. >> i don't know if they are, but i like the start what we see right now. when you see the 10-year approaching 3.1% suddenly the banks have shall looking again. jp morgan reacted today. i liked that
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119 seems to be an area if jp morgan breaks through it has plenty of room to the upside goldman sachs, jp morgan with morgue morgan stanley doing well there was actually an upgrade of etrade today i like the financials. i hold the financials. i don't know if we can say after one day that purgatory is over and here we are in the huge bull market. >> i would argue banks haven't been in purgatory at all you can pick times in the last year 1/2 that the banks outperformed dan and i do this all the time but financials before elections are outperforming the rest of the market the day after because they had a big move, i can argue it can be selective. bottom line, jp morgan if you look at the last quarter numbers, record profits. if you look at the banks jp morgan went from 102 to 118 since mid-july this move didn't happen yesterday. it's been happening. >> i guess the important thing is it hasn't been happening since january. they have been in purgatory. massively underperformed.
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>> what's massively underperformed. >> you have the development banks hold on tim can i finish. >> you're right. >> no, but when you are looking at goldman, morgan stanley down 15, 16% from their january highs, we were looking before today at really no major u.s. banks that were up on the year other than jp morgan and bank of america. we have gotten nice moves after consolidations yet we see the broad moment consolidates at the all-time highs and the banks consolidates down five, six, seven or even 15%. to me it's a one-day action. we finally saw the 10-year break out. but we also is he obviously a flat yield curve as we go into the rate cycle we know we are getting at least one more rate increase, right, this year, possibly two i just don't see the banks really performing on a sustained basis. i don't see jp morgan in a meaningful way having tremendous up side in 2019. that being said, you did say it's the must own stock and acts better, jp morgan you said last
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week. >> final trade you piled on am i right. >> i got short tilray. >> we'll talk -- plents of time to talk about that let's let guy talk. >> run the show as if i'm not here go ahead go ahead, guy. that's all right it's okay. >> welcome back. we missed you. >> you leave once again and what are we supposed today. >> i'm here today. >> great to have you back. >> great to be back. >> i would disagree on goldman sachs. i think goldman sachs, the fact management changing completely in my opinion, changing the sort of the look of the if i recall, feel the the of the era of the if i recall. i think goldman sachs will go through some growing pains at this level i'm in the sure it's participating with the rest of them the one i like on valuation and we spoke about last night continues to be citi bank up i think about 3% today price to book basically one times price to book. report october 16th. if the banks continue to rally on a rotation i think the bet aif sensitive one or the one the with the upside is citi. >> what's the driver is the bank
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trade at this point? is it the fact the 2-10 spread aren't so bad. before we were looking at 22 now more like 25ish and yields moving higher. or is it investors are starting to abandon the fang trade? i mean, for instance we had guggenheim coming out raising the price target on netflix. netflix finished lower. >> this has a lot with rotation and what has underperformed and where do people want to start moving money towards the latter part of the year i think if we see the 10-year somewhere in this range. over 3, up to 3.25 something like that. i think the banks outperform pl. the rotation meanings sense. we know about the earnings ennen that was a known and the stocks didn't do a lot they have the earnings strength. but it's about the next catalyst i think part of it is the 50er but the other part is rotation. >> this is the point about rate cycle that we are in don't you think we will see the inverted yield curve very
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quickly, soon? >> i think if want to compare the graph of the kpflt lf against let dow it's the same graph. largely i think as banks underperform they underperforming either in line with industrials or parts of that global trade implicated dynamic that i think was pushing down the dow the dow only recently has been outperforming. dow outperformed again today and has been doing that the last woke like financials i just think if the economy is showing strength into the fourth quarter .banks outperform. this they have they are the greatest leveraged way to get exposure to the economy. people feel confident here. >> that's been the case since the lows in march has the s&p has been stair stepping up back to the prior highs and we have seen a lot of industries very economically sensitive do well. you mentioned industrials. we are talking about transport i mean, why isn't the banks? that's the question to me. i don't think you should expect. even if jp morgan breaks out and makes highs wells fargo stinks all the investment banks act
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like garbage i'm just saying what's the thing that turns it? >> i think what you are doing is separating not make it the same trade. that's the appropriate way to do it wells fargo has fundamental issues wrong so does goldman sachs. jp morgan is the most diversified with the best balance sheet. devg the highest multiple in terms of lowest discount rate. near a all-time highs. jp morgan at all-time highs with the market and you trade them all the same. regional banks outperformed for a long time if anybody is rate sensitive it's those guy. >> announcer: the vix is below 12 and peak. we do a great show friday at 5:30 with dan is the absolute star of. the vix is giving you another dunt below 12. that's sort of the level where getting long volatility is protectionist it's been right the last few years and here it is again the vix tells you everything is okay with the s&p. s&p went a great performer but the rotation i think to the banks is encouraging it can continue. >> that's an interesting point
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danburys up in terms of being a believer in the improvement of the global kpee or even the u.s. economy let's say. to so retail stocks for instance industrial stocks what would you rather rather. >> or would you rather. >> banks or pick your other of. >> industrials right now in terms of what i think is going to perform most i'd stick with industrials. but i have exposure to both. >> why >> i feel they are more sense i have to what's going on globally as well in the u.s you look at something like caterpillar. boeing names where do et revenues come from when you break it down i want more defect than people would expect i think that there are names in the industrial pace that still are cheap. putting off incredible amounts of cash and more upside even over the ngs ifs but i have exposure to both i i own caterpillar and jp morgan and some of the others i'm waiting for the financials but it's been a long wait and disappointing. but maybe the latter part of the year we see that accelerate.
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>> the industrial trade and whether it's been rails, whether airlines, whether it's been some of the other transports, i do think it's been a cyclical rotation back and forth. bottom line pete talks about the valuations they are more interesting in that pastor world. but this to me, the which it has acted last 12 months tech has outperformed and nonwe have seen the tech rally over because we get the move back to value. that's where we are. industrials have attractiveless valuation. i think they are front loading what may be a growth blow off into october before the trade -- whatever we call it not a war, impasse but the reality is the rest of the world is slower and industrials will be hurt. >> when the trade impacts? >> yes but people are front loading growth into september and october. i don't think we see it. >> that's because in a lot of issues we saw ordering ahead of what people expected was going to be a very rocky trade period. to me, irk o i think you have a set up where you havese comparison to last year. you saw front end loading here
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the longer the trade dispute goes on, the greater likelihood we see a synchronized global slowing and then guidance looking for the first half of 2019 very disappointing that may reflect in lower stock prices. >> when we think about investing in bank stocks are we investing on the premises that the u.s. economy is going to be strong and somewhat immune to a slowdown globally? or is is it your view perhaps that a global slowdown or outside the u.s. will then catch up here in the united states and therefore slowdown banks stocks as well. >> or door number three, which remember remember let's make a deal there is a door number three i think door three is the rotation out of technology stocks out of high fliers in banks that have been underloved and not been a focus the last six months on valuation. they have made sense and they continue to make sense. i thought you were playing would you rather with retailers and banks. >> that was another option.
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>> i think pete blew the game. >> i game gave him the option of choosing the sensitive the cyclical. >> but industrials versus financials >> you want to do the reits. >> now is the time to peel out of retailer with tremendous moves. we did a power pitch on the jw nordstrom a while become that's exploding as. >> at a was that your power pitch. >> jw nordstrom. >> might have been. >> royally >> you guys. >> let me reiterate -- and closing money which was weird. >> one of my favorite shows. >> that's at 4:00 right. >> the retailers you go to the banks. >> almost a holiday season. >> it is >> it is the holiday zbloonz no question about it. >> about 10 oh days a away. >> it's hump day. >> stop. >> coming up pot foreia, spreading through wall street as shares of tilray go wild how long can the mania last? check out shares of red hot reporting earnings not to stock we talk about a whole lot but we
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tell you why the move after hours could be a key indicator for the mechanic and later pete pounding the dabl on a dow stock stuck in correction territory what has him betting on the turn around he will give us his fast pitch more "fast money" right after this
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welcome become to "fast money. shares of red hat falling after hours. the calling currently under way. courtney reagan has the latest reaction from wall street on the results. >> red hat posted a mixed second quarter. disappointing third quarter guidance and chris everily says the trouble last quarter was the middle ware business this quarter looking at middle ware combined with emerging technologies grew 31%. he says that's a positive. but he thinks there are near term headwinds which is why the guidance was lower he says the infrastructure related subscription revenues had grown at 15% for several quarters but could be slowing because this quarter grew attious more than 8% last quarter the segment grew at 11%. and red hat said it would grow at double digits for the foreseeable future that's a concern point melissa.
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>> thanks. the after hours drop in red hat could spell trouble for the. june they saw the worst trading sector tech followed suited before both recovered in the bes next month process could this small stock be a tell of what's do could come. >> within two or three drading days they traded lower on valuation. the story against them has been valuation. that quarter caught up to them it's catching up again here a stock still trading about 36, 37 times forward earnings, obviously guidance wasn't great. wasn't disastrous. the question now is will you see a commensurate move like you saw back in summer i don't think that will be the case i don't think you'll see the stock drop to the significance you saw before i do see it going down to 130. if that takes down the rest of tech, i think technology has a bigger problem but i think you see it at 130. you hold and buy it at that level. >> the question of whether or not it has broader impact? a red hat specific problem or bruder tech spending problem
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maybe? >> well, i think first of all red hat as a tech stock with a high multiple -- it's 65 times its -- at least on trailing. on the mid-40s on forward looking. there is someone growing bookings and billings 20% four or five quarters in a row. last quarter that's not the guidance we got. for those guys for sure it's a red hat story to the extent the high multiple tech stocks were basically traded higher until they were disappointed and now they have disappointed i wantproof me stories again it's sbik active of that class. >> when do you see the slowdown were the under armour stock or you go to nvidia or any of the names? once you see the slowing and -- the subscriptions were posed to be double digits and now 8% is expected that's disappointing when you put a multiple on what they have prenlly and then suddenly see the slowing that's when you want to pull hands back i say that a a guy who owns kaults in red hat expecting it
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to be better and obviously this guess in my face when you see the slowdown that's an issue. >> it's also two quarters in a row. they lowered so much for this quarter you thought they would have beaten. and now they are guiding lower look a hoot commerce it's open source software company that sells to other tech companies. when you see two quarters like this i'm suspecting they are seeing visibility. we may see tech spending less on tech right now and the other point i mention is that, yeah it's down 20 resist% from the all-time highs in jun it's up as of of close 15, 16% guy on the year. i see a gap level to 130, 120. and wouldn't mean a lot for broader tech about you tart to extrapolate this into q 3 earnings season then it's like okay that was a canary in the coal mine. >> for more on the headants facing tech you can hear by roger mcnamee why apple stands strong here is what else is coming up
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on fast. ♪ i'm forever blowing bubbles. >> and many calling pot and bitcoin the ultimate bubbles how do you spot a bubble guy adami breaks it down plus he called the rally in pot stocks. >> my thinking here is that we now exceed the high and you have a good setup for a big breakout. >> and the chart master will reveal where he sees them gog in next when "fast money" returns.
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just since the ipo let's get to adidi for the details. >> what a wild day for anyone trading tilray stock the stock closing up 38% today its best day since going public. but the real story is what happened leading up to the close. tilray shares opening up at $233 up 51% and steadily climbed an hour before the close shares soared as high as 94%. up $30 oh. only to wipe out all of the huge gains and more in less than an hour the low for shares was $151.40, down 2.3% on the session and rebounded in the last 30 minutes closing up 38% the swing were so volatile the stock was halted five times. despite the ups and downs, tilray is the best performing ipo in about two and a half years. the stock gained 1,200% since the ipo as of the close today, the stock is bigger than nearly half the
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components of the s&p 50 oh. but how is it valued against the peers? well take a look at the price to sales ratio of tilray versus competitors. tilray's value on sales far exceeding that of company like canopy aur row even cronos among the tilray investors hitting the jackpot, peter thiel. he is a big investor in pot focused holdings owning 76% of tilray stock thiel has been a supporter of cannabis industry. back in 2016 he donated to the ballot measure that initiative that legalized marijuana for recreational use in california melissa. >> certainly a jackpot for peter thiel. adifficulty roy in san francisco. tim seymour is all in on the pace but is tim is on adviserry boards for cannabis stocks for all the disclosuring you can go to fast did the cnbc.com
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what's your take. >> i'm speechless. for someone seeing liquidity rushes in asset classes this is extraordinary. as great as the fundamental news including the fda announcement yesterday. the day before coke talking about looking at this and cbd wellness perspective this is a squeeze much epic proportions all capital markets dynamic if you look at tilray visa v. cronos and the canopy, those stocks are sideways the last month you can't tell me that tilray strategic advantage is better. yes does it trades roughly ten times fere another one of the big canadian big boys the valuation makes zero sense they should unlock more stock. there should be more float out there that would relief the volatility here. because this is a short squeeze. through friday's expiration it's a wild ride. there are guys short on the
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stock. stay out of the way. >> it's crazy to think peter thiel owns 76% of the shares out there in tilray. i mean, talk about a tight float, right. >> extremely tight there is no stock out there. >> and 20% shornl to tim's point, you see what happens. and also -- we talked about this tim has as well. there is a scarcity issue in terms of the amount of publicly traded stocks people have the ability to get into a space everybody thinks or a lot of people think will be effectively the next internet. when more stocks become public, i don't think you're seeing dynamic moves like this in the near future. >> especially more stocks coming public here in the united states i mean there is also right another level of scarcity just because there are so few stocks listed here. they're all in canada. >> when you look at the volume, how about the fact four times normal 30 plus million shares when it's been trade bag 8 million shares. the short squeeze is definitely in play. and the borrow any of us sitting on the desk talk about it but the borrow on this name is
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absolutely outrageous. it means the options price very odd too mel, not to get complicated but very, very. >> one other point, that move into 3:00 when it went from 240 to 3:00, day trade wers the borrow and everything is tight as it is, day traders are probably shorting it without a borrow and thn at some point they have to make a decision and that could have been the thing that caused them short squeeze. and then you have the halts. and i mean, it was perfectly mayhem for a $20 billion market cap company. >> our next guest was on the show one week ago calling the surge in pot stocks. >> this is the tune or the issue. basically has an lump, pot stocks peaked in january with the market and have yet to recover back to the levels but based on again the recent heavy volume accumulation as we approach the former high my thinking here is we are now going to exceed the high and then you have quite a good setup for a big break out. i like the theme
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but, again, you could pick the wrong one one way to do it is to stick with the agree git like this. >> it dpeeded the january high the et up nearly 4%. back at the plasma with a warning and carter i have- have you ever seen anything like this. >> well it's extraordinary, right? i mean it's the volatility, the lack of float and it's the sheer intraday range we will talk about that at the end. but today is not about pot stocks it's about this particular stock let's drill down on that what we know is the issue of liquidity. 76.5 million shares outstanding and yet 58 of them are held by one entity the float is only 10 average day volume is 11 and we saw today 34 million shares traded effectively every share that's available to be traded traded three times if you could look at that way but let's go on to the -- let's
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go to the next slide and i want to look at the intraday action what this is is this is a 60 minute bar chart so every bar is an hour. and what we know is that after basically coming out of the ipo, if we look at the next chart you see that it was up 100%, right out of the gate. the next chart shows it was -- gave back about 36%. and you could see that here, right. we have a huge giveback after the huge gain. and basically a dead asset and then of course the launch. so the next setup you will see here is that we moved along the line and this is today's action and this is what's important we basically have perfectly over and over and over walked this line until today's blow off parabolic move so from here, next chart, what you see is that we went through
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the top and then closed the gap. so there was actually a little gap -- here was the open and then we collapsed. and so now the issue is, does that high set the high for a long time? i think so, yes. one more chart and then i want to make a point about charting overall. so we could clear this -- my clear button maybe it's here i'm sorry i've been driving the wrong way here this is what's important bar charts if ever you don't see a bar chart on this screen because because it's o because i haven't had time to send in the right chart but any published report if you use a line chart you are not looking at the facts the fact that the stock had a low of 150 and high of 300 where you open, where you close is what matters and the fact is it had a poor close. now, end with this if you have a line chart and you just woke up because you got off a plane, a 13-hour trip around the world, you'd say tilray close at 214, up 38%
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that's not the store intraday charts are important. if you are charting use a high low chart not a lynn chart plenty of people lost minneapolis and others. >> carter has to come to the desk. >> are you kidding me that kind of analysis even without bars or whatever gave us a little bit about charts. >> we got the bars in. tilray specifically what's the downside right now >> well the important thing is that what a blow off looks like where you have unrelenting appreciation, a lot of ill liquidity and then a double effectively and then a collapse? the halting alone tells you that that is a spas motic sort of flair up that won't end well i think the highs of today at 300 will stand a long time. >> is technical analysis more difficult when you have such a small float? when you have 76% of the shares held by somebody who is long. >> right you would think, right and yet you saw the trend line goes along the trend line gets
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extended and falls back. remember, a lot of charting is done in the biggest assets in the world can be currencies or the smallest microcap stocks it doesn't matter. >> carter what do the gaps mean? the halting gaps does it make it hard to look at the intraday action. >> the gap is important with the opening gap. think of experience might have been people short going in and then it gapped up and covered said i can't take it and then i'll get long this is never going to stop and flipped it around got long only to watch it crash. people made money three times in and out perfectly. and people lost their fingers today. it's deadly stuff. almost untradeable >> yeah. i'm sort of going to break what we are doing right now because i want to go to dan and ask you about the options pits and how do the trading halts -- because you were asking about the halts and the technical -- how does that affect in. >> really hard for market makers and exchangingses. you worked on an exchange. when you have a stock opening at
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150 from a whatever close and goes high. you need to add stroips market makers when someone wants to buy calls they are selling a call. they can hedge with options if they sell a call or buy stock if they are selling a put do the opposite thing. it gets complicated. i suspect the halts in the stock had to do with the fact that options market makers were kind of getting left, you know, kind of flat footed here and the volume exploded in tilray today as far as options are concerned. so the total volume was about four times average of the last month or so. call volume was about 1.25, 1.50 times that of puts but that doesn't tell the story about bullish price action to your point, i think traders were using options here for leverage and to define the risk. but doing so crossing very wide, bidesque which is dangerous in a name moving like this. and just like speculators had a hard time i suspect that market makers were having a lard time. >> the hardest thing to figure
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out -- i made a statement either right or not, is the high of today does that stand for a long time it's my hunch it does. plents of people think no that's the beginning of a -- pot stocks in general it's a long run we have talked about that. this is just the beginning but this particular stock on this particular day has all the indications of a q reversal, a bad close, the highs should be in a long time. >> pete, i know you are watching the action we have short sellers on andrew left of credit tron tweeted he is still short, holds a manageable position here the. >> what does that mean. >> the only way would be through the options market i would think. >> some form of a hedge. >> shorting options. >> i talked to a specialist today telling me how impossible it was and they wanted to continue -- some wanted more strikes. some less strikes. i think the bigsz problem, mel is dan brought up, the liquidity issue when you look at how wide the markets. bid ask spreads are ridiculous partially because of the borrow and all sorts of other reasons because of that it makes that
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even -- even though you can manage the risk it's very difficult because you have to pay up if you are buying or sell way down if you are selling. it makes it more complicated than people think. >> carter, thank you. >> thanks, guys. >> carter worth of corner stone. >> check out the full show on options action friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up. is this cannabis craze a mania and how do you know when you're in the midst of mania. guy adami breaks down the three signs to watch for pete made his way to the plasma. he says a dow stock is it guy? it's pete? there he is stuck in correction territory. setting up for an epic breakout. pete wilexail pln what has him see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that.
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jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? yelling giddyup. hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen.
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welcome back to fast we have a news alert out to dvg. let's get to ee loan for the details. >> the "wall street journal" reporting president trump plans to nominate nellie lange to serve on the federal reserve board of governors in washington, according to one of the sources. nellie lange is currently a fellow at the brookings institution. she launched the office of financial stability after the financial crisis, headed up the department she worked at the fed for 31 years before retiring last year and now according to the "wall street journal" a nominee to be on the fed's board of governors
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back to you. >> elon, thanks. shifting gear now time for the instant replay back in may pete stepped up to the plate to pitch disney. >> the fundamental story is this they buy back share, great dividend, cash flows all the time i think this is a company that you can see the lack of performance. i think performance is in the future >> since that call on disney, the stock has jumped 7%. what do you do with disney now pete. >> still holding still think it goes higher. as they get closer to the competition of streaming with netflix i think they win. >> well since disney was a winner of a pitch why don't you go back up to the plasma give us the best shot here. >> all right here we go against. once again here is the name i put out. i pitched in once before, intel. intel is interesting a much different company than pitched before here is why. right now the ceo is not in place. that's a question mark when they eventually make that selection for this ceo this who had been and a halfen shchlt
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shanoi i think that's a catalyst g giving a pop to the stock. number one i like the management for a long time unfortunately brey the former ceo got pushed out and no longer the new ceo is the guy the price to earnings ratio presently at 11 times. this is the fundamental side of this company by the way, they have retired over 10% of the shares over the last five years. they're helping threw as well well plus 2.7% dividend yield and cash flow. free cash flow, $13 billion a year and they're using that for all kinds of other areas that's something unbelievable. i love what they are doing with the cash a lot of the spend they have been doing in terms of r & d has been gobbled up as well. i like what they are doing with the financials and then you look for growth what are the growth right now? you have growth in the earnings. over 20 process plus%. you got revenue growth around 10%. you got the data center group becoming more and more of the revenue for the company. that's why the gentlemen i mentioned should be the new ceo. that's where the growth is 27%
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year over year this is a growth with growth earnings and revenue and going forward they will outperform by the way when you can buy a stock off of its highing significantly of off its highs that gives you a little bit of something in a mathematic trading at all-time highs i think intel has plen of room to the up side. >> may i ask pete a question. >> you may. >> big fan of your work. >> a long time. >> the recent from a and d does that suggest amd is cutting into intel? can both survive. >> i think both survive. both easily survive. but it says something about how well lisa sue is doing at amd making right decisions they compete quite a bit but not as much as everybody thinks. i think intel group has the upper hand and that will be the growth. >> you want somebody internally to be the new ceo. >> yes. >> i would tell you i can see the announcement coming and the stock flat on that but if they were to say lisa sue
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is the new ceo you'd see the stock up 10 peppers in the heartbeat. >> i disagree but here is why. the biggest growth area -- go back, dan to microsoft and look at what happened that's nadella that's what we are looking at here. because it's the growth side of the business the cloud with microsoft there wasn't vision at microsoft under balmer all of a sudden the new guy in place who comes from the cloud, grows it more. and that's why the stock went from 30 to 111, 112 something like that. i think the same thing could happen for intel. >> all right no more questions time to vote are you buying or selling pete's vote on intel. >> one of pete's best pitches deserving the best pirks one of my best pch i think revenue guidance and margin guidance for the second half year were light. they they are they see strength on the portfolio i'm buying pete. >> what do you say dan. >> i agree with all from pete and tim. you stay long against $43. i think that's my original call
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right here. >> guy what do you say. >> you know something remember the game match game when they used to cheat off each other's answers charles nelson riley and brett summers. >> you just cheated. >> i was writing you lkd over didn't know what you were looking at. >> i supposy russell used to do that. >> i wrote this first. >> do a split screen i wrote. >> that's embarrassing. >> weird things. >> group thing group think. >> across the board. would you out there buy intel on pete's pitch vote now in the "fast money" poll we'll reveal the results later plus >> oh, come on. >> apple kinning on the path of tatol tech domination. should be facebook and google fear their ad dollars.
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more fast after this
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welcome back to "fast money. if you are an adidi roy fan tonight is your lucky name amazon's add game has been so hot she is back to break down how hot it has been. >> i'm a melissa lee fan so i'm lucky to talk to you twice tonight. amazon is so hot ranking third behind google and facebook and u.s. digital surpassing also
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yahoo! and microsoft which includes link in emarketer forecasting amazon will generate 4 p $6 billion in ad revenue in 2018 giving it more than 4% share of the mechanic market. that's small compared to google which has the 37% share and facebook owning 20% of the digital ad space but the move is notable. the google will be facebook combination is slowly losing in the market slipping a couple points 57.7% this year. advertisers are turning to amazon because the ecommerce giant is sitting on a golde mine of data on consumer purchase behavior amazon is looking at new ways to bring in ad dollars and the next wave may come from voice alexa devices are disrupting search, which is a core source of revenue for google's ad product opinion amazesen today is testing out a shopping site recommending products to consumer based on likes and
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dislikes which could help with targeted ads for consumers melissa, back to you. >> adidi roy in san francisco. let's trade it we did see stock reaction in terms of the new shopping platform that they launched, way fair was down stitch fix was down what do you think. >> i know you have like a -- we started the show one of the first days in september what can stop amazon? it was 2035 we talked about stopping itself because of strength index it traded at levels we haven't seen in 20 years. and i said it won be ridiculous to see the stock trade down to 1850 a whisper of that. i'll stand by it there is a kmans in the environment you make that push not an indictment of amazon by any stretch. you have seen movers isaac like this before. that's where you buy it. >> there maybe amazon indictment comes from eu. they opened a probe today and merchants.
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it's another building point against they and regulatory environment changing on them and i would be wary of that. >> we are at a point now, right, when government -- did governments around the world. >> eu especially. >> eu especially, really examining big tech specifically. >> specifically data and what is -- what is something that's available to be able to put out and what's not that's part of the issue as great as it is for amazon, a little bit of achilles heel. people are figuring out what can we give out datawise the security issue when you look around the security companies are a steal in most cases even the ones that seem inflated there is great opportunity there. but this will definitely harm amazon labts going forward and eu all the rest of that. still look at the juggernaut they are in aws. >> yes it's a juggernaut up 65% of the year, $940 billion mechanic cap that's adequately reflected in the market. the biggest issue, the great news they have the growing advertising business it's about how they use the data and push into other industries
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that i believe is going to catch the ire of regulators not just in the eu. and here it is fantastic that they have this growing ad business like i said aws is 11, 12% of the total sales. any time you have fast growing businesses that actually have much higher margins than the retail business that helps you justify the gains it has but you know, ultimately the data thing could be the thing that slows them down in the near future. >> all right coming up. you knew about bitcoin mania beatle mania tim's vest mania and now tilray mania taking over on wall street and main street and every other street is it a bubble how do you know when a mania happens andreas you? guy adami who was there for all of the manias he will tell you fet e ways to spot the bubble. li athe nasdaq market site
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more "fast money" straight ahead.
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tilray up 50%. >> we got to talk cannabis canadian. >> tilray, they absolutely have built that thing the rightway. and you look at the market enthusiasm, right, right now the problem is there is just not enough supply. >> so the pot stocks soaring tilray up 1186% since the ipo.
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canopy growth up 141% this year. >> tilray in our opinion is one of the weaker stocks >> tilray, tilray, tilray. that was a short montage of the tilray fever sweeping the airwaves how spot the mania is it a bad thing. guy adami is at the plays in with the more you know. >> hi, everybody i love the segments the more you know we have had mania all through my lifetime preponderate pretty mania back in the 160 ohs. mainy with four british guys one with no shoes all with bad peegt walking across the street subway token mania and then the question mark. no it's not guidance mania like that this is the mania we see now slide it, earl marijuana mania. you say to yourself, how do you spot a mania the real thing is the next slide. take a look. price doesn't matter back in the tulip mania skilled
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workers, 10 years worth of the salary for one bulb of a tulip beatles people were selling the first borne to get the tickets at the stadium subway tokens people making cuff lengths out of the token nuts. you saw it with tilray today ridiculous move. price doesn't matter, valuations don't matter next, main street chatter. everybody was talking about tulips when i was a kid. and peel people still talk about the beatles and the subway tokens but the chatter look at the spike in cannabis and tilray search ridiculous now everybody talking about it clearly a mania. last slide earl. check it out a concernle of truth behind this bull thesis. what does that mean? i still plant tulips every year. the more i plan the more i get process. everybody does when you see them
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that is spring that's not mania that's truths the beatles i got the 8-tracks that's not going away. subway tokens we talked about. i still have pan loads become at the house. i got to tell you something. tim seymour has been on this for a year marijuana, cannabis is not going away it might be a mania. but there is more than a kernel of trougt behind what's going on in the entire space. back to you, mel >> tim has a question. >> right so guy, like the tulips, the more you plant the more you get -- the more cannabis you plant the more you get how when you compare the different maniaswhat's the duration foreseeing sanity return to the markets? i realize that's different in terms of history. >> tulips it was 1633 to 1637 before it crash. bitcoin it's not subway tokens don't@me as the kids say twitter top bitcoin came to earth.
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the beales never went away paul mccartney is the man. but i tell you george harrison is the most talented beatle. >> i told gnaw. >> cannabis isn't going away any time soon. i think you agree with this this is this generation's internet. >> well, i would just argue that i think the lack of obstruction in the markets is leading to the moments that's wree he ware. >> up next, final trade. need a change of scenery?
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it was close but not close enough tony broks ton is safe she will try and unbreak pete's heart but kins to get broken. >> i like that. >> how about a different song for a while that i liked better. >> when you really get slammed there is a different song. >> i like the slammed one better than braxton time for final trade pete. >> close only in horse issues intel i like the pitch it's going higher giddyup. >> tim. >> oil once slammed has been a place to invest 18 months. the oih making another move check it out. >> we spent time on red hat. that was good. i think you buy it get closer to the 130 level i don't think you buy. >> guy you love red hat. >> you have a red hat.
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>> we have done more with the career of tony broks ton any show in the history of television. >> she has her own show. >> she has a reality show. anyway. >> tulips. >> shows what you know about tony final trade. >> pr you u a trade to get you done. >> bac my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. snoo i say it over and over again. in other

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