it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc, 12 noon in riyadh saudi aramco says the $12 trillion ipo is a go denying reports it has been scrapped we sat down for a broadcast exclusive with the company's ceo. cnbc's company comcast winning a big bidding war for british broadcaster sky. all of those details coming up. a new round of tough tariffs for china kicking in today we are live from china with the fallout. there's an $18 billion deal in gold to tell you about. a massive new metals giant. and tiger woods winning his first pga tour title in 5 years. it is monday, september 24th as

"worldwide exchange" tees off right now. ♪ it's the eye of the tiger ♪ it's the thrill of the fight >> it really is all about tiger woods in the sports world today. good morning and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching i'm brian sullivan thanks for beginning your week with us. so far september has been a good month for stocks the dow is up 3%, but that trend not continuing this morning. dow futures is down off about 60 points right now likely for two reasons. number one, the new round of tariffs kicking in number two, oil much higher after opec and its partners this weekend decided not to raise output by very much. oil both here and overseas, brent crude, the version they buy and sell overseas is back above $80 for the first time in nearly four years. you have to go back to november of 2014 to see a brent crude price which is above 80. we're at $80.70. traded here up 2% to 72.

watch gas prices which is why we begin here at a broadcast exclusive for you from the biggest oil company in the world which, by the way, is also likely the biggest company of any kind in the world. saudi aramco says it is moving forward with its plans to go public we sat down exclusively with the oil giant's ceo nassar we also asked him if recent reports that its widely anticipated public offering was being permanently canceled were true here's what he told us >> of course it isn't. his excellency, the minister last month indicated that the government is committed to the ipo at a time of choosing when the market conditions are optimum and the reason i say it's incorrect, because look at what the government did so far

to make sure the company is ready for the ipo. we have the company's a joint stock company effective january this year. we signed a new concession agreement. oil and gas, which is important for saudi aramco all the elements that are required for listing saudi aramco were done so it shows you the commitment of the government for listing saudi aramco. >> the sabbic, how does that change the timing then of any timed ipo? >> the sabbic will impact the timing of the ipo. it's a major deal. we are doing the due diligence currently and you cannot list while you are going through an acquisition this size. >> so if cnbc were to run a headline that said aramco still

plans ipo by 2020, would that be incorrect? >> well, i don't want to commit -- see, the dates and all of that, you see, first of all -- >> we like dates >> i don't want to talk about dates because -- as i say, we have the due diligence, it's a process. ultimately as i said, as his excellency, the minister, this is something for the government to decide on from our side, i just want to say that the government has announced that they are committed. >> all right on deck board. our broadcast exclusive with naaser and what he said about president trump that may get some buzz today. we only have time to run parts of this. we did it yesterday. it was 20 minutes long the entire version is up on "worldwide exchange".cnbc.com. check it out. your top story today will reshape the european landscape

our parent company comcast outbidding fox for sky sky shares are sharply higher in london trading on the news joining us now is matthew garahan, global media editor at the "financial times." you have that up on the site and the paper today. it's going to open things up what do you think the ultimate outcome is, matt, going to be from this deal >> well, i think fox is going to tender it as fox owns a big piece of sky fox as we know is being bought by walt disney disney and fox aren't saying what they're going to do i think it's likely they tendered their share for the price that comcast is offering is so high and i think comcast then gets into the european market in a really big way it will own sky with operations in the u.k., germany, italy. it doesn't have a massive international strategy at the moment, comcast, but this really gets it going in quite a

significant fashion. >> your article is titled opens up new horizons for comcast. this is well known here but for our viewers in europe and parts of asia, they may not be as familiar with it this may be transformational from a european point of view, will it not be >> it will be. sky is a big player here the biggest player in europe comcast gets into europe immediately with this deal it's been land locked in the u.s. for several years, comcast. it's been a big acquisition push over the last 20, 30 years at&t's broadband business tried to buy time warner cable nbc universal which owns your fine network it's pushing at the limits of its growth and with paid tv under pressure because of core cutting, netflix and amazon at the edges offering people new ways to watch television on demand programming taking off in the way that it has, it really needed a new route to new

customers. this deal gives it that in a big way. it's a pretty full price i mean, it's almost 4 billion pounds sterling more than disney were offering but, you know, it was something that brian roberts, ceo of comcast was desperate to get and it looks like he's going to get his way. >> are you seeing the same level of cord cutting as we are seeing here people simply dropping their subscriptions and keeping the internet is that as much of a thing there as we talk about it here >> not yet, but it's getting there. i think cord cutting in the u.s. is happening on a bigger scale because paid tv penetration is higher in the u.s. it's like 90%. across europe it's much lower, 50, 60%. there's a lot of room for comcast to grow and sky gives them a way to get to customers in a nu skinny bundle way. sky has a package called now tv which is a slim line low cost bundle which has proved very

popular. it's been a good hedge for sky against cord cutting the plan is i think comcast will come in and use that to get into other markets beyond the core sky markets. we're talking about across continental europe and possibly beyond as well this is good for comcast. >> you know, it's interesting because soccer plays a role in this as well football, excuse me. >> football, get it right. there you go. >> go tottenham. the ratings are strong in the united states on nbc sports. that's who has the contract in the united states. how much -- i know sky's got a massive deal there how much do you think sports is playing a role in this deal? >> well, sky has built its business off the back of premier league football, soccer as you might say, but it's done -- it has transformed the sport in the u.k. it owns the exclusive rights in the u.k. and rights across european territories too and it's historically been a

great driver of paid tv subscriptions here in the u.k. at least i think sky has the rights to this sport, this competition in the u.k. nbc which is owned by comcast has it too you can see comcast becoming the preeminent player in sports. disney with espn was looking to do something similar in the u.s. at least but doesn't have a huge international exposure which is another reason why disney wanted to get its hands on sky. 9 rights for american football are sky high as here as well and the rights for european soccer matt garrahan, we appreciate it as always. thank you. that is not the only deal today. in other deal news, barrik gold is buying south africa's

randgold in a stock deal for $18 billion. that creates the largest gold producer who will have a dominant position in africa. shares of both companies are higher randgold up half a percent and barrick up 2%. we are getting started with a very busy merger monday at "worldwide exchange. up next, turning up the heat a new round of tariffs against china will begin today we're live with the fallout there. plus, making a major comeback tiger woods capping off thyee ar with a big win we'll recap his pga win when we come back.

5:12 on this good monday morning. thanks for joining us on cnbc. here's how your money is shaping up right now september was supposed to be the worst month of the year for the market guess what, the dow is up 3% this month so it's actually been very solid today not continuing that trend. we're seeing the dow futures indicating a slight drop of about 55 at the open nasdaq and s&p futures are down as well today but, hey, listen, it's been a pretty good run for normally what is a bad month most of asia is closed today the autumnal equinox shutting down china and shanghai. the ftse in europe and the u.k. is down 1 tenth of 1%. in trade news, new tariffs on 200 billion worth of chinese

imported goods go into effect today. they are 10% they rise to 25% in january. let's get right down to eunice yoon live in beijing with the reaction there eunice >> reporter: thanks so much, brian. five hours ago the u.s. started collecting tariffs on $200 billion of goods and china started taxing $60 billion worth of goods at 5 to 10% soon after that china made its position known on the trade conflict it issued a white paper,f it are going to be given out tomorrow gat a bres briefing trade bullyism, brazen intimidation and economic

hegemony at the same time, the paper suggests that there are ways to improve the relationship one of the big suggestions we've heard from some time, negotiations based on mutual trust. it's become clear that the chinese believe the trust has broken down. over the weekend the chinese had decided to pull out of negotiations this week there is already a bit of shakiness around those trade talks after trump imposed tariffs. and then they imposed sanctions on china for imposing military gear th they didn't like that. they called in the u.s. ambassador they proposed military changes

at this stage most of the people i've been talking to here believe there is no end in sight for this trade dispute. >> listen, not only are you a global media celebrity, eunice they probably know you and know that you're tied to the united states and that you come on this fine program as well when you just have your moments of conversation, not in your official duties, what are your friends, the people you talk to, saying about these tariffs and the united states's trade actions? what's the cocktail conversation in beijing on friday night >> reporter: you know, it wasn't really on a friday, it was also on a saturday. >> you, too? >> reporter: what i was surprised as to how -- oh, no. exposed. but, no, i was surprised at just how downbeat a lot of chinese friends are about the way the economy is going and how concerned people are about especially the manufacturing sector and production, once it

moves out of the country, they all think that it's not going to come back just because the trend of china is already pointing in that direction where costs are going up, manufacturing is moving to other countries and so some of them are quite worried about what that means for the economy. just today fitch, the ratings agency, said that they decided to cut their forecasts for 2019 for china from 6.3% to 6.1%, that's for next year they said it's because the reality of a trade war is starting to set in i think that's probably one of the reasons why the u.s. and the white house, they believe that the u.s. is in a better position we heard that over the weekend as well from president trump as well as mike pompeo, the secretary of state who had said that he was blaming china more for this trade war and saying that the u.s. is determined to win. but we'll see what happens just because there is still a lot of fight left in china as we can see in this white paper.

>> eunice yoon bringing us great on the ground feel you work hard. it's 5:00 somewhere. it's 5:00 there. >> reporter: we deserve to take a break on the weekends, do we not? >> nvery much. let's bring in now matty duffler. she's a board member at the center for senior economy which is maybe appropriate because many people call tariffs a tax, not on the producer -- >> reporter: exactly. >> -- but on the consumer. the idea is the cost will go up that we'll want to shift the production here. is there any indication in that happening or will it result in a consumer products hike >> reporter: i'm one of those people who think tariffs are taxes, they're just paid at the border the notion that the government is propagating which isn't correct. your conversation with eunice

were illuminating. what is this supposed to accomplish you've heard from the trump administration time and time again, they think china needs to come to the negotiating table to rectify their bad practices there in the past. i would agree with you there there are a lot of practices with china looking at protectingism p. here in the united states, for technology transfers when the united states companies try to do business in china. all of these are questions that the administration is trying to solve, but i don't see how a new round of tariffs on american consumers does that. this is happening against the back drop of a couple of important components here in the united states. one is that the president heads to new york today to talk to the united nations general assembly. of course there will be a lot of themes there about america first, america exceptionalism which is not going to find a positive response from our partners who we need in order to enforce a lot of bad actions in china. every week we see new tariffs is a week closer to the mid term elections where they should be

able to focus on the gangbusters economy instead of raising prices on consumers. >> i'm glad you said those words, the mid term election don't you think the chinese, who are very politically savvy, are going to wait until that's done to do anything because if the gop were to lose the house, senate, maybe both, that the chess game -- >> yeah. >> -- for trade and the president is going to change dramatically if the gop controls all three after that, the chinese are back to where they were >> yeah. >> why not wait and see what happens and see if they have a little bit of extra leverage to play with. >> i agree with you entirely remember the administration when they announced the new tariffs last week said a 10% effective rate was happening on the chinese today starting january 1 that rate goes up to 25% basically the administration at this point has shown all of its cards. it's telegraphing to beijing exactly how it sees the trade war playing out right now. secretary ross is saying, china

is out of bullets now and they have to come to the table. that isn't the case. not only do they have tariffs which are bullets but they also know where the united states is headed they know the united states will continue to implement tariffs without giving them a reason to come to the negotiating table. when you see new tariffs going into effect, you know that's their plan, beijing say we can't come to the table. we know what's in store for us. >> the greatest part of america, we are an optimistic bunch. >> exactly i just heard urieunice talk abo they are down beat there doesn't seem to be a concern about the tariffs yet. do we have any indication as to why we're not feeling more of a negative repercussion from it? >> reporter: i think there's a couple of reasons from that. one is that the tariffs are happening at a time when we've seen a renaissance in american

manufacturing and a number of other policies in washington, d.c., have fundamentally reality te altered it it has fixed the business climate for a lot of the problems american businesses have faced that, of course, has inoculated a little bit of the political pressures that we would have seen otherwise from the trade war. last week when the announcement was made about the tariffs, the chinese response to that was the least bad response that we were expecting. we thought maybe the chinese tariffs would have been higher the stock market didn't necessarily price in the worst reaction but that doesn't mean that the worst reaction isn't coming the markets reacted to seeing the chinese come in at a lower level. >> only five or six weeks away

why nont wat wait and see how i plays out. >> of course. still ahead, we are on washington watch as well big headlines out of the nation's capitol need to be on your radar outside of trade. more of our tv exclusive from the ceo of saudi aramco. what he said about the president, opec and prices "worldwide exchange" rolls on after this cal: we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way. ♪ valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last.

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good morning and welcome back top headlines outside of the worlds of money and business frances rivera in new york with that >> good monday morning to you. a second woman has come forward with sexual misconduct allegations against supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh. she claims he thrusted into her face causing her to inadvertently to touch him that's not what i wanted i was embarrassed, ashamed, humiliated "the new yorker" says it has not confirmed the claims with other eye witnesses. kavanaugh responded to the new yorker, this did not happen. this is a smear, plain and simple president trump is waking up in new york city this morning preparing to attend the annual united nations general assembly this week. he's expected to meet with several more leaders french president emmanuel macron and moon jae-in.

he addresses the panel tomorrow. hundreds of people packed central square in barcelona to watch competitors form incredible human castles it's all part of an annual festival the tradition is said to have come from the 18th century here at home in this country, brian, we call that high school college cheerleading. >> yeah, that's pretty impressive though. >> yeah. >> don't fall. makes me nervous watching that frances rivera, thank you very much. still ahead, what our parent company just did may change the sports tv landscape as well and what the ceo told us about opec and the president sure to grab headlines today. ref our broadcast exclusive with the head of saudi aramco when "worldwide exchange" returns.

sounding off ahead of the world biggest oil company talking everything from opec to iran exclusive comments ahead reaching for the sky a major win for our parent company comcast and its big bid abroad and on british soccer. call it a comeback more on tiger woods big pga win. ♪ ♪ welcome back and good monday morning or good afternoon, good evening wherever in the world

that you may be watching i am brian sullivan. thank you very much for joining us today we have a lot to get to on this very busy monday first let's get a recap on your headlines. eric is in with those. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com at this hour. comcast outby thing 21st century fox in the auction for british broadcaster sky this weekend with a $40 billion offer sky has recommended shareholders accept the bid sky stocks soaring in london today. the trading near the comcast offer. the latest round of tariffs have gone into effect today against china. the trump administration imposing a 10% tariff on $200 billion in chinese goods including furniture and appliances beijing retaliating with taxes on 5200 u.s. imports worth $60 billion including coffee and liquefied natural gas. barrick gold striking a deal

to buy randgold. it's $18 billion they will have a dominant position in africa shares are trading higher this morning. >> eric, we'll see you in a minute meantime, here's how your money and investments look now we're halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york. stock futures are lower. down 55 points off it's been a pretty good september. historically it's the worst month in stocks. the dow is up 3% we haven't seen the historical trend. we are a little bit lower and weaker the majority in asia closed for the autumnal equinox holiday one reason stock futures may be down is that guess what is up big? that is oil. in fact, brent crude is above 80 for the first time since november of 2014 nearly four years ago. wti traded crude, probably what we care about in the united states is up 2% to 72.30 a

barrel more on the markets in a minute. get this, the world's biggest company, saudi aramco, says it is moving forward with its plans to go public yesterday we sat down with the oil giant ceo naaser and he told us that recent reports that aramco is scrapping its ipo is, quote, absolutely incorrect. he talked about iran we asked him what impact sanctions will havus. >> we have already said to all of our customers that we are ready to supply additional barrels and to make sure that the market is balanced they have a maximum capacity of 2 million barrels a day. we have almost 1.5 million barrels of capacity today that is available if required to

offset any short fall. >> i know that your energy minister is representing opec which has a meeting this weekend, but you are obviously the player, the national oil company of saudi arabia. do you have the ability to get to 12 relatively quickly if the world needed it, if prices were to spike as our president has referenced opec needs to bring crisis down. do you have that capacity? >>s a you know, we have the reserve 260 billion barrels by third party that is available to sustain that maximum sustained capacity that capacity is available, some of it in days, some of it in weeks, with a maximum three months to have it all available. >> how many barrels do you believe will come off from iran? >> well, i don't want to speculate about how many barrels.

depends on the containment from other companies in terms of production, but what we are saying to our customers, that we have the barrels to meet any short falls from our customers. >> we were at opec and the announcement from opec in june was a little confusing to many because it basically gave a proportion for what each of the opec members could then increase their capacity so under the opec agreement as you understand it, how much would saudi arabia and saudi aramco be allowed to increase capacity under the opec deal >> whatever -- i don't want to talk about all the agreements all what you are saying and his excellency and the requirements, we have not failed in meeting

the customers' demand. >> do you feel the pressure from president trump's comments about demand, supply and opec? >> well, as i say, from our side, we have to satisfy our customers for the additional barrels they need to make sure stable markets is maintained stability of the market is very important. his excellency, the minister, announced a couple of times that the stability of the market is something of great importance to us and will continue to play a role in making sure the market is stable. additional barrels are prevailed. capacity is the highest in the industry is available within the kingdom. >> there have been some reports that you may be out of your best quality crude for october delivery someone speculated if that is true that it might be a pull forward of demand because of those iranian sanctions.

are you out of october delivery? >> we do have all type of crude. the maximum portion of the crude that we have is liked by all of our customers. we do have extra light, super light, the medium, the heavy and the light. of course, the majority of our crude is all light. >> so you have that ability now? >> of course, and we do have the flexibility, the spare capacity give us the flexibility to avail different types crudes. >> you can see our entire interview on cnbc.com. let's bring in helena kroft. a lot going on iran oil prices up. >> yes. >> quickly, we haven't had time -- you haven't had time to watch the whole thing. we did 20 minutes with mr. nasser, very generous with his time we appreciate that and say thank you. he effectively said they can go to 12 million barrels a day if they needed to could they do that >> the question with saudi

aramco is the time line. spare capacity is what you can bring on for 30 days. >> that's why i pressed him on the time. >> time line is the important factor here. yes, in theory they can ramp up to 12 but can they make up for the iran short fall, venezuela continuing to collapse what if another pthere. >> the opec deal effectively says -- it kind of hamstrings aramco even if they could, they have to make sure other producers in opec get their fair share as well, do they not? >> they're still under a quota arrangement. the oil minister said multiple times that week in vienna, c consensus is nice but not required saudi aramco is prepared to act alone but not necessary. the saudis want consensus but they will make their own plans.

>> they're caught between an opec and a hard place. >> or a trump place. >> jack up consumption, keep gasoline prices low. on the other hand, some of the producers say, we can't ramp up producti production we are a cartel and we have a deal. >> others are saying you have a deal and you have a situation where production is going to fall on one producer because of a policy put in place by the white house. so you have a situation where the saudis are being asked to make up for a short fall it was in part policy induced. the market will tighten up. >> it's a joint technical committee, they met in algeria -- if we could put up brent crude is above 80, first time in nearly four years. >> yes. >> crude here is 72. the real story is not opec, it's about the tariffs and the tax in iran. >> right they didn't get much out of this

meeting except the russians and saudis saying we're not going to put more barrels on. the attack was the most significant. >> blaming the united states. >> blaming the united states but i think importantly blaming saudi arabia basically saying you are funding arab separatist groups that carried out this attack i'm concerned if we see more attacks like this you could see a very, very rough situation in the middle east. >> i know that iran's exports have dropped considerably. >> yes. >> do you think they will -- what do you have, about 1.5 million barrels? >> yeah, down from 2.2. >> yes a significant fall. >> 700,000 barrels the world has to absorb. how far do you think the iran output will drop, at least their exports will drop? >> their exports will drop sub 1 million. >> you believe that? >> i believe that because the white house has been very, very serious about telling countries

you either go to zero or you make a significant reduction not 20% like obama asked for you reduce by 50%. that's just by november 4. >> wow. >> yeah, so then they're going to have to cut again if you don't go to zero, you're going to have to cut again. >> a lot of people are probably listening to this show burning carbon they care about gas prices here's the point you said iran may go down 1 million. >> yes. >> there's two million barrels gone off of daily consumption, 98 billion, but it matters. >> is that why oil prices keep rachetting higher? >> shock absorbers 1.5 million barrels, year on year when you have natural decline rates, 3.5% across the entire complex, you can't afford to have this many supply disruptions. we would have thought this didn't matter because it's the u.s. we're in a situation now where

permanent production is bottlenecked there are real concerns about is there enough gas in the tank to deal with more supply disruptions. that's why i think it was very interesting when the saudi aramco ceo said, we have storage. if you start drawing down your storage, that's a signal to everybody in this market that we have a problem. >> you think we have a problem do you think oil prices are only going to go higher for the rema remainder of the year? >> i think this market will tighten and the prices will go higher. >> always appreciate you coming in earl for your invaluable advice. >> thank you. we have another big oil interview coming your way tomorrow we're going to be sitting down with the ceo of shell. we'll interview that -- we'll air that interview, he said, at 5:42 a.m. tomorrow morning right here on "worldwide exchange" and throughout the day, of course,

on cnbc.com. that is tomorrow. coming up today, you can call it a comeback tiger woods securing his first opener what does it mean for golf, sports and nbc coming up [phone ringing] need a change of scenery? the kayak price forecast tool tells you whether to wait or book your flight now. so you can be confident you're getting the best price. giddyup! kayak.

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for tiger woods being on top it was his first pga win in five years. you could see the quiver of the lower lip. the hug with rory. this was an emotional win for tiger wood. >> he said he almost started crying walking up on that 18. >> you could see it. by the way, who could blame him? >> it's been an interesting ten years for him. he hasn't won a major in ten years, but he was the player of the year five years in a row because he won several tournaments. it's interesting -- >> not only that personal stuff with the marriage, numerous back surgeries. people saying he's done. >> he himself saying i may be done right? >> he looks -- i mean, the last few months he's looked strong, physically strong. >> he's won several tournaments. the ratings, like you mention, the ratings when he is in contention they go up 50, 60,

70% just because of him. >> that much >> that much he can move the needle in such a big, big amount. >> the part about moving the needle globally, our parent company, comcast, have you heard of them? they bought sky winning a bidding war. this is a big deal because sky, while maybe not familiar to people here, wins the bidding on the premier league >> you have to think about comcast and sky in a way they're not competing against oertel vision companies in the future they may be competing against facebook. >> what if amazon went after, you know, the premier league in england rights at the next bidding. >> i want all the package. >> the market has changed. they've got to scale that up. >> that is where there is an advantage if you get together, you have more money and say i can get this coverage in the u.s. and england because i'm one

company rather than divvying it out. that's one advantage they have going for them. >> going back quickly, tiger woods, that is -- golf has suffered the last few years. i think you've reported on this on the number of people playing golf has just -- >> definitely gone down. >> how important is tiger to golf generally not just to ratings. >> i think in a way he is like serena and venus williams. you're seeing them surviving for 20 years and now the kids are playing who are 20 years old saying i am playing against my eye dol idol you're seeing some of them in their early 20s on the tour. there's still another end of that generation that can come up and say, i grew up watching tiger. >> brian, i grew up watching you but it's so awesome to be on with my idol. >> i'm on with my idol >> i grew up as a kid watching you, brian >> eric -- >> something like that you and tiger woods are in that same realm >> yeah, he's a little better at golf and everything actually than i am.

eric, thank you. >> you've got it, brian. >> we are counting down to the fed meeting. what you can expect from the fed when "worldwide exchange" returns. and we've grown substantially. so i switched to the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy. and last year, i earned $36,000 in cash back. that's right, $36,000. which i used to offer health insurance to my employees. my unlimited 2% cash back is more than just a perk, it's our healthcare. can i say it? what's in your wallet? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter.

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welcome back what's coming up on "squawk box. andrew, it's not like you have a shortage of news how do you divvy this up >> will there be any mention of comcast and sky? >> probably not. we're talking comcast and sky and what it means. we have a number of biggests to break it down. craig moffitt will be with us. we have larry haverty and ken auelueta joining us. we have reaction for what it means for comcast, sky, disney and the world of the media we have mini grossman, ceo of weight watchers. we have former nba all-star ray

allen in the house lots to do. >> big show. very well rounded program this morning. andrew, we'll see you. well, the countdown is also on because if it wasn't busy enough already this week, the federal reserve will kick off a two-day meeting tomorrow central bank widely expected to raise rates when it announces that decision wednesday at 2:00 eastern on "power lunch. we'll get the fed's latest economic forecast and fed chairman jay powell will be in joel, thank you. joe, first to you. what do we expect from the federal reserve? are we going to get a rate hike this week? >> we are going to get a rate hike, brian. good morning the key issue will be how many rate hikes do policy officials signal for '19, '20 '21.

>> answer that question. >> we'll get a hike this week, another hike in december i don't think they'll hike more than once or twice next year but the fed will say three times next year, one more in 2020, however, it will come close to the fed increasing those estimates. in other words, nothing will change but it will be a little bit more hawkish in terms of the balance of risks. >> okay. you just outlined if my math is correct -- how many fingers do i have six rate hikes by 2020 can the market withstand that? >> that's a good question. so that's what's been priced in, the six hikes. the market saying they're only going to do three more i'm concerned if the fed is edging towards more than six and then of course they may add another hike in 2021, they haven't had it, markets may have to contend with the fact that the fed no longer is nearly the tailwind, it's been a headwind it d going back looking at

historical -- 50 years you've looked at it and across all the different caps, small, medium, all of this stuff. >> yeah. >> what has surprised you about the market recently and what does it tell us about the market going forward? >> when we go back 50 years, these are unusual markets. last month u.s. small caps are up over 6% others are up 8 1/2% for the entrepreneurship large cap growth is strong august which is typically the second weakest month was very strong last year but when we go forward, when we go back 50 years looking at the quarter after a big month, a big year, we see the markets go up generally close to 5%. we have to remember we're going into october, november, december november, december two strongest months of the year january usually small caps have an unusually large performance. >> still bullish on the markets? >> yes we're seeing money pouring in, $17.2 billion poured in from international into u.s. equities in the last month.

we're going to see more of this. i'm still bullish. >> is that because they think the trade war impact may be greater around the world we may be hit but they're comparatively stronger despite the headlines, keep putting your money here? >> absolutely right. people arelooking at u.s. markets as a safe haven. we need to look at what's going on on the markets. do i think by year end the markets will recover i do we're looking at opportunities at my firm to take advantage of year end effect. >> what are the opportunities? >> small cap i think they've been beat up looking at latin america down 20%. china, india, emerging markets there are headline risks in venezuela and turkey countries like nicaragua. >> they have basically like sort of a minny coup going on. >> they have a revolution.

south africa we're not look to go invest directly into those markets but the point is there are a lot of opportunities throughout the world because of these effects. >> brazilian small caps, that's your headline. joe, we'll let you have the last word on this when do we see -- do we see the impact of these tariffs? the american consumer has been ignoring it. >> brian, you know i love you, buddy, i'm telling you and everybody that will listen. >> but. >> big but the tariffs are a concern for the players and certain companies and the big sector, but they don't matter. the bigger issue is the fed. the economy is doing extraordinarily well we'll get a second quarter in a row in which gdp is over 1/4 of a percent. we're going to generate s&p earnings at 40%. for the full year, that's staggering. >> very politely we love you as well. thank you very much. joel, thank you very much for coming on as well. big interview today jim

cramer sitting down with jpmorgan ceo jamie donim a double diamond day thanks for watching us "squawk box" is next

good morning comcast beating out fox this weekend in the options for british broadcaster sky. we'll take you live to sky's headquarters in the u.k. and talk about the impact on the media landscape. and tiger wins have you heard yet claiming his first pga tour victory in more than five years. you know what happened right after that all the guys on the same plane flying over. jordan spieth met him in atlanta and they're all flying over there in possession of the ryder cup but will they be in

possession of it a week from today? i don't know it may take an act of congress to get you a little more leg room on commercial flights. can you believe that we'll tell you how to make air travel a little less stressful on monday, september 24th, 2018. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ ♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. ♪ ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures under a little pressure. dow futures are down by 65 points last week it was up 2.3% s&p had a strong week. now it's indicated down by 7 poin