china and the united states imposing new round of tariffs on each other escalating the ongoing trade battle peter navarro, office of trade and manufacturing policy, had this to say on president trump's trade strategy yesterday >> there are allies and partners and strategic rivals like china ripping us off and the american worker off and the president is going through these areas whether it is mexico, canada, japan, china,

and so on, and in europe and basically calling them to account and getting to the bargaining table and getting a better result for the american people >> let's bring in larry lindsey. i was going to start in a different place because i want you to explain some of your numbers. but let me just get your reaction to what you heard peter navarro just say is the president getting recommendations that are benefiting the american worker and the american economy, the american people? what do you think? >> well, i think that the process will end up there. you know, everyone, not just america, but everyone has been ripped off by china now for decades and decades. and we did it for good reason. we wanted china to join the world economy and not become a hermit kingdom that was after the berlin wall fell so it has been going on, but trump for personality reasons

perhaps is the first person who was willing to take it on. i think in the end he will win >> so let me go to some of the numbers. and i want you to explain to me because i'm sort of a freshman in economics and you're well beyond ph.d. you say that china will feel 75% of the pain of tariffs and the united states only 25%, that their pain will be 12 to 15 times greater at certain tranches of these tariffs than will the pain of the united states how do you arrive at that calculation as simply put as you can make it? >> sure. so kevin hasset, chairman of the cea, was asked to rank order all of the goods based on pain to china versus pain to us. and as an example, suppose you had a good that could be made in

china or vietnam well, if you put a tariff on china, it will be made in vietnam. as you go down the list, the ratio gets not as favorable, but still is pretty good so by my estimates and what you do -- the fancy word is you look at global elasticities of suppl and demand just take my word for it >> i got it, yeah. >> if you go down the list, the first 50 billion was on the order of 14 or 15 to 1, pain on them, pain on us i thinks next 200 is a number more like four or five to one. i think you get a lot closer when you get into the final tranche. but the pain being inflicted on china, the amount of the tariff being born by the chinese is much, much greater than the amount of tariff being born by us >> so will that cause the chinese to blink first

and i also note that you don't think that this whole kerfuffle will resolve until -- for months >> well, one thing we have to keep in mind, the chinese pain threshold is higher than the american pain threshold. we have a lot more democratic commentary here than they have and president xi is one tough customer so i think he is going to have to really, really feel a lot of pain before he is willing to compromi compromise the way it is structured, the pain over there is rising very sharply. again, we don't know exactly, but i would bet by the third quarter of next year, everyone will want to have a bargain. >> and justsaying that chai wichai -- china will feel the pain more doesn't mean the u.s. won't feel pain comments overnight is saying that beijing saying that the u.s. is holding a of knife to

its throat essentially and that it can't possibly engage in good faith negotiations with the tariffs being put into effect. that perhaps the chinese are indicating that they are willing to wait out the current administration that may be two more years, it may be six more years. but if that is the case, in aggregate, won't that be a lot of pain to the u.s. economy that the u.s. -- the average u.s. consumer won't want to feel anymore? i mean they will really feel it and it will result in slower economic growth. >> well, so let's put some numbers on it. if you got the next 200 billion tranche and you got it in at 25%, and you added to that trump's proposal on all autos, nonnafta autos, and you kept steel and aluminum up and you added it all up, it would be $83 billion. that is four-tenths of 1% of gdp. and that assumes we bear it all.

but we don't bear it all in fact the other guy bears most of it. so i think if you actually crunch through the math, the pain on us is about one-tenth or two-tenths of a percent of gdp that is not zero, but essentially a rounding error in terms of our overall economy >> larry, thank you as always. appreciate your time today >> thank you we'll tell you how bmw says the tariffs are affecting its business plus sales force founder mark beno b benioff about to joim jinl jim cramer

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trade wars hurting the bottom line of bmw phil lebeau joining us. >> it has been more than a decade since we have had a profit warning from bmw. you don't see it very often. they have conservative with their guidance, but now they are joining daimler in terms of issuing a profit warning expecting a lower profit for all of 2018. slower revenue growth. and profit margin, it will be about 7% instead of the previous guide aunance of 8% to 10%. this is video of bmws being built in south carolina. a lot are shipped to china china is weighing on the bottom line for bmw, but there are other issues as well including new regulations over in europe

bottom line, they are cutting their profit outlook in part because of the trade tensions and that is tightening the business not only in china, but seeing a tighter business in europe and the u.s. market is not great. take a look at the projected imports into china bmw and there you have mercedes. and we put tesla up there because people say isn't tesla sinding a lot sending a lot over to china. expected to send about 14,000, but that could be higher as they start to send more of the model 3s take a look at shares of bmw and we haven't seen a profit warning from them in about ten years. and when you combine this with daimler, continental the issued a profit warning, this is what we're seeing from the european automakers right now >> are they talking about what their reaction will be to the tariffs? tesla say they will hike prices in china >> they are passing along any price increases that are being instituted on those vehicles that are being shipped from south carolina over to china how much that has hurt sales is a little hard to determine at this point but all of the chinese market

right now, there is pressure on auto sales really across the board. >> all right phil, thank you. check out shares of square jack dorsey's other company. up 168% so far this year one analyst now raising his price target to the highest on the street and he says add an s to those faang stocks. we'll talk to the biggest square bull arouncongp.d mi u ♪ i don't care where we go ♪ and i don't care what we do ♪ just take me with you there are roadside attractions. and then there's our world-famous on-road attraction. the 2019 glc. lease the glc300 for just $469 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. mercedes-benz. the best or nothing.

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hello, everyone. i'm sue herera here is your news update while meeting withtcolombian president after his speech, president trump questioned the credibility of the second woman to accuse brett kavanaugh of sexual misconduct. the president again depended his supreme court nominee. >> i think he is just a wonderful human being. i mean, i think it is horrible what the democrats have done it is a con game they are playing. they are really con artists. they are trying to convince -- you know they don't believe it themselves

okay they know he is a high quality person they don't believe it. it is just resist and obstruct they are playing a con game. >> but protesters demonstrating against kavanaugh chanted outside the office of alaska gop dan sullivan, they are putting pressure on some senators to vote against his confirmation. pope francis visiting he i estonia. the pope is aiming to encourage the christian faith where more than half the population profess no religious affiliation you are up-to-date melissa, back to you >> sue, thank you. check out shares of adp and paychex. our next guest has a new note saying square is just as disruptive of any faang stock. it is up 166% so far this year joining us now, dan dollof,

biggest bear on square great to have you with us. you think it should be faangs to add square for the faang group >> correct >> in terms of this new application, what do you make of it and how much could this be worth to square? >> we've done some work around this previously and what we figured out is that if the square taps into the payroll and hr world, this is a potential $60 billion potential. so it dumb it doubles it. >> at retail where i see a lot of square's terminals, who are they dts intermediary? >> there is the traditional merchant acquirers like first data global pieces and world pay. and there is also like a bunch of smaller private companies the smaller and some of the companies doing merchant acquiring, the traditional way

of doing it today. they are doing it better than everybody else, they are innovating faster than everybody and that is why they will be growing 60% this year. and we expect them to continue to grow at this rate over the next -- >> are their terminals and services that much cheaper is that one of their selling points >> that is a very good question. we've done work around this and if you do a side by side comparison of square versus the competitors, square would actually be more expensive than the competitors on a side by side comparison just the basis points that you are charging per swipe. but once you start grag straighting more and more square services like payroll, hr loyalty, you are lowering the total cost of ownership, so you you only node like two to three additional products to get to parity so you are getting a better product with better innovation at the same price or cheaper and that is the lure of square >> and a lot of these additional services are subscription basis,

so sold longer term as opposed to month by month. >> correct >> and most people think of what you see at the terminal or what small businesspeople see attached to their phone in terms of pavement of payments. but they also have online food ordering, small business loans what is the overarching thrust of square in terms of all these -- they could seem like disparate businesses almost. >> square is bringing it all together they are the only payment with the fully cohesive solution that is combining sellers, consumers, already more than 1.2 million more downloads in the u.s. than venmo. and they can take everything and put it in con solution so that is they are taking as you're saying siloed services and bringing it into one cohesive operating system. a very apple like approach

only ones who were able to create an ecosystem and that is the power of the platform. >> and it links up to my bank account the way zelle does or any of those >> correct it is the same thing but the thing with the cash app, you can do more than just peak to peak payments you can start and eventually order food and do all these other things so i think that the bigger strategy and that is why we're so bullish on square is that what you see now is just the tip of the iceberg and you mentioned the disruption of the payroll that just came out today those are things that you will continue to see more and more of this over time with square >> all right have to leaveit there. thanks so much for your time still ahead, we'll hear from the new owner of "time," sales force founder and co-ceo marc benioff is about to join us with jim cramer i get it all the time.

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co-founder of instragram are planning on exploring creativity again. but is this a bad sign for the social media giant joining us now ed lee with the "new york times. great to have you with us. i read the story and i thought immediately about the other executive departures most notably the former executives from what's app. >> yeah, back this may facebook did a massive reorganization of its executive structure, they had people reporting to different people that sort of la played a smaller part, but in this case what was stunning is that instragram founders had been with the company for six years. so you get bought, there is

usually a four year best period. but he stuck around for longer he got along pretty well with mark zuckerberg for the most part i think they were aligned on sort of issues about, you know, use ability in terms of maybe what worked really well. instragram was the cooler newer app which is why facebook bought it so this about-face was kind of stunning and there are specific things that facebook has been doing in the past year that sort of kind of twooeke tweaked in wrong way ads is part of it. they started putting more ads there. i don't think he was necessarily against more ads, but it started to hurt the use ability. also other little details like if you are on an instragram and you post a photo, there was a way for you to cross-post it to your facebook app.

the little tag disappeared >> is that enough to make somebody quit? >> why is that important >> in the world of silicon valley, kevin is a creator like you wrote a story and they took your byline off >> but he sold his baby. >> yeah, it is no longer his but he was there to run it and they had a lot of autonomy and they still do, but these things matter >> sounds like you you don't think this is painting the picture of a struggle within facebook over ads or the new privacy concerns >> i think privacy and advertising is an ongoing concern that they are all grappling with i don't think it is a make or break thing. statement it is the details. he can cash out, he has been there is a long time but it seems like he sort of hit the point of it is no longer my thing. >> given how important instragram is in terms of having younger users, not suffering from sort of the same controversial scandal with fake news and the political meddling

that facebook has, what happens now? is it completely still on an upward trajectory? >> yeah, i think it is fairly stable i don't think that they will massively recreate instragram or twoo tweak it in a way that turns people away. high 14-year-old spends half her time on instragram either that or the rest of her life so there is so much activity that happens and it is relative to what has been happening on facebook, it is a sort of safer space in which you you don't see fake news or conspiracy theorists running through there, or at least you don't notice it as much it is more of a lifestyle sort of destination so it is valuable the way it is, but they want to put more ads on it >> so is there is a concern with their departure that instragram will go awry we've seen the market reaction in snap chairs up 2shares up 2% >> could they screw it up. the executives at facebook are not so backward about it like

oh, now that they are gone, we can do everything that we want i don't think so i think they have been doing what they wanted to do past few quarters, they have mentioned about how yes, we are putting more ads on. it is working. >> and how do they derived money before they put more ads on? >> fewer ads and to be honest, it was probably operating at a loss so they wanted to make their money back >> but the pressure for more ads comes from the fact that the platform revenues are declining. >> the user base in north america and europe is starting to decline so that coupled with running out of places to put advertising, instragram is becoming that much more essential >> and should facebook be worried about the competitive pressure or the competition that these two represent moving on if they decide to take them at face value and explore their creative again?

>> so come out another thing that will compete? i have to imagine that there might be some kind of a noncompete clause. i don't know that firsthand. but even if they were to create something amazing, facebook/instragram has such a massive head start, it will be hard for anyone to catch up. >> all right we want to get to a market flash now. >> this one specifically with regard to j bull circuit a contract manufacturer. and part of the apple supply chain. shares down by about 9% following comments from the ceo saying he condition expect any material imprompt in profit margins until 2021 as it spends more time on growth initiatives. shares down big as well. there is always a question for tech manufacturers whether or not the trade issues are part of the whole discussion they were not dealt with straight on, but maybe alluded to in some of those comments but again, an interesting development for a lot of companies that we'll be watching with regard to how trading

tariffs affect corporate america. >> ed, what is your reaction to jabil? >> i don't know. i'm waiting for 2020 -- that is far out. >> the question is, and i don't know if dom is still there, does this indicate anything about apple or is apple putting the screws on its suppliers in terms of reining in their costs in order to keep the business >> well, it is interesting because this is ceo of the company, basically said, quote, you wake up one day and there is a tweet. you wake up 48 hours late, something else is going on with regard to what is happening with the trade war. so he is very well aware of what is going on right now as i'm sure a lot of ceos are whether or not these companies actually end up saying something definitive about their profit margins is something else. we've also noticed a general trend among s&p 500 companies, that fewer of them are making comments about their future

expectations with regard to results. some of it may be due to things like the trading tariffs issue and charity around them, or some of it may just be extra conservatism with regard to the current reporting environment. whether or not you believe the trade and tariff issue will have a material impact backs at least a question for a lot of qvcs, but in many cases perhaps not choosing to take it head-on. in this case they are saying 2021 is the next time they could see market profit margin expansion. and of course tariffs will probably play into that only because we know that those cost structures are going higher for main of these tech companies >> all right dom, thank you very much ed lee, thank you for joining us up next, we're "power lunch"ing with morning joe's mika brzezinski in knowing your value in the "me too" era and the fight ahead for the supreme court nominee brett kavanaugh.

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cnbc earlier today gender gap and pay gap hot topics right now among various industries why are women so often overlooked and underpaid morning joe co-host mika bra zi bra zi mika bra zink ski has some ideas. and [']-i know that you are launching your 2018 version of your book called know your value, women, mind getting what you are worth. and it covers a lot of the changes in your life since then including the "me too" movement. here is my question big. have we come that far? i mean we still have someone who is accusing a nominee for the supreme court and in many cases being ignored. we still have a major gender pay gap. we still have a difference in how many women ceos there are. how far have we come

>> well, i think that it is a slow difficult journey and when have put our voices out there, we also have to be prepared for the questions and for the challenges i think that it is a slow process and i think what we're seeing happening in washington certainly highlights the challenges it is very difficult for women to come forward in any culture, in any scenario, but this one is probably the worst and this is a very difficult time and i think women are really finding themselves either supremely concerned for the fate of the two accusers of brett kavanaugh or they are concerned on the issue of exactly how we pore through this because we need the facts we need the facts to back up our voices >> so on brett kavanaugh, there has been a lot of questions about the time line here we heard that from president trump himself.

why didn't she report it at the time is there is a statute of limitations on speaking your truth? >> oh, no. there is no statute of limitations on speaking your truth. >> should something that happened 30 agnes aerl influence how you are thought of as a middle-aged adult >> are you asking on behalf of brett kavanaugh? >> i think that -- well, that's a great point. >> that's my find. that's why we need the facts i would suggest we need an fbi investigation. i think it's still going to be very difficult but at this point, this travesty happening in the media where you have depending on the network you watch, one side being convicted and the other being smeared, this is not the way it is supposed to work. this is not women getting their voices this is women being smeared. people who are accused being smeared. and nobody really knows the truth, which is not getting us

anywhere. >> would we have had, mika, a better chance of getting at the truth if senator feinstein had released this letter six or eight weeks ago? >> you know, i'm concerned exactly about how this woman's story was leaked the whole thing is just, it seems very concerning to me. yes, had perhaps this been released earlier, perhaps we would have it. but here is where we are and all we have is facts we have a story with two different sides to it. i think it's upon us, quite frankly, to stick to the facts that we know on each side. and personally, in terms of the political landscape, i really think the republicans should ask for an fbi investigation at this point. what do they have to lose? quite frankly, here's what they have to lose the female vote in the midterms, because this isn't going well. >> in terms of women having their voices heard everywhere, it seems like we are at a

critical juncture where there is a camp of women, i'm sure, who want to just make the next conclusion as you mentioned, smear the accused. >> yeah. >> women have to be -- i mean, i think women have to be careful right now because what we do collectively in terms of how we absorb whatever is being alleged and how we portray that out. i mean, that's going to reflect back on us. >> yes. >> if we are jumping to conclusions. >> look, we have worked hard to get to this point where we have a chance to use our voices we also have to be able to weather the storm. and i am not taking sides in this i'm not. we should be reporting this. the media should step back a little bit you watch, you know, i was watching television all weekend and i was really disturbed brett kavanaugh was either a rapist or these two women were liars. that's not our job this is not our job.

and if we want women to have, you know, a chance to have their voices, let's not get in the way of that, but let's not also overcorrect to the point where we lose in the long run. i believe in due process i believe in the facts speaking for themselves i believe in getting all the facts. one of the reasons why i re-released this book is that we need to know how to communicate effectively and use our voices in real time come hell or high water. and no better time to do that than now in the age of trump. >> let me turn the conversation, if i might, and we can obviously come back to more of kavanaugh or whatever, to something that's a little more closely allied with your book, and that is i am curious what you think it will take for there ultimately to be more female ceos of fortune 500 or fortune 1000 companies and why there aren't more of them. there seem to be fewer of them

then my seconds question, and i'm sorry for doing this i am famously infamous for doing this. >> i know guys like you. >> my question second is, to my experience, the things i have read about women and money, is that men tend to be overconfident about what they know. >> i know. >> and women tend to be very underconfident about what they know, and i'll bet you that underconfidence translates into, in part, lower pay, fewer promotions, and a less direct path to the c suite. >> your second question answers your first one that's the bottom line. >> that's good for the first time ever. >> your second really does because in this book, know your value, i look at the part of the equation, we can control men are amazing at two incredible things.

contessa, melissa, i'm sure you will agree first of all, they know how to press reset. they have a bad moment, press reset, command respect in the next conversation with the same person where they totally screwed up they forget everything that happened it's a great talent because they can move forward and plow through and get to the goal while women are thinking about everything that just happened in that tiny failure of a moment. we have to have a million failures and we need to be able to muddle through and pick up the pieces in real time. press reset in real time. >> i just want to say, mika, when i read the book the first time around, and you and i were friends and colleagues at msnbc and you never sat me down and gave me the lessons. in one place, i feel like it formed the way i negotiated my contracts, the way i took charge in conversations it was a very educational book and it was a really good thing for me personally that you wrote it i can't wait to read the update.

thank you the. >> you said there were two things you only got to one. i want to hear the other. >> here is the other one you guys are so good at talking about yourselves, it's amazing it's like -- and by the way, you make up stuff. you make up stuff. i'm serious. like let me give you a perfect example. tyler, you will totally get this we were pitching "morning joe" the beginning of the very, very beginning of the show. they didn't even know if they were going to keep us. we were filling a three-hour slot that became suddenly open and joe is like, yeah, we need to negotiate this. and i think you should give me ratings bonuses every time i beat the previous show so they are like, you'll what? and i'm thinking, what you'll what? what no and my thinking was to say, well, thank you very much for the opportunity, and we really, gosh darn it, hope we can make you happy. and he is like, we are going to

beat imus. you pay me if i do guess what we have been doing for 11 years you know what? this guy had confidence. he pulled had out of nowhere it's like, who can beat this highest rated program on the network at that time who would say that a guy. >> a guy, yeah. >> a guy. >> right or wrong, he turned out to be right in that instance mika. >> you make your truth. >> great to see you. good luck with the re-issue of the book. >> thank you take care. >> mila kunka brzezinski. and from first to worst, kevin o'leary. i wish he had been here for that conversation he would have been really interesting in that. he was last year's stock draft champ. he is this year's stock draft church the blue apron down. look at that the stock draft, dragging mr. wonderful down with it rfmae l talk to him about his peorncso far the second hour of power. that's next.

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is the fund built to sell or built to last? etfs are only part of a portfolio. so make it easy to explain. give me a quality fund that helps me get clients closer to their goals. flexshares etfs are designed and managed around investor objectives. so you can advise with confidence. before investing, consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. welcome to the second hour of "power lunch. we begin with the fed. we are 24 hours away from a decision on interest rates and chairman jerome powell's news

conference. >> one reason for the expectation is the strong economy and jobs market. according to the latest fed survey, those trends could continue. >> the fed likely to hike rates in farther because of the outlook. let's get to the numbers from the cnbc fed survey. 3% this year now, that's up -- we are doing this year over year, by the way. that'sapa half a point over the course of the year inflation 2.5% is up, 30, 40 bases points look at 2019 looks like it, just down 0.2% on gdp. above where we were in 2017, 2.2% inflation a tick down in unemployment jack klein, one of our survey participants, chief economist for national retail association, rarely are so many economic gauges of the u.s. economy so

strong as a result of the bright sun from the economy, it's hard to see the dark clouds. so recession chance just 14% that's pretty low as these things go over the next 12 months there are two major threats. one, protectionist policies the number one threat. that was halved. why? because people are concerned about a fed policy mistake when it comes to interest rates number two choice, 22% doubling since the last survey. people like mark, managing director and senior economist at wells fargo write the risk i worry about is the economy appears to be in such great shape that the fed may opt to move a little more aggressively. that may prove to be a mistake as much of the exuberance in the economy is built around expectation, the fed will raise rates slowly the question is not this year. two rate hikes expected this year, one in september, one december two more next year the question is does the fed

feel its oats and get more exuberant on the rate hikes? >> exuberant all right. see you tomorrow in washington. >> you coming down tonight, because we can have a drink. >> i am coming down in the morning. >> we should do this offline, don't you think? >> i feel left out of the party. >> all right how will the fed's next move impact the markets silvia, managing director of capital markets direction investments, and head of cio portfolio strategy at merrill lynch private banking and investment group welcome both of you. i assume you're in the camp that says the fed will raise rates tomorrow i would like to get what you see over the horizon going into the future, and i wonder whether there is a growing possibility that the fed might hit the pause button in december or next year because of the trade issues?

>> that's a really good point. the fed will hike rates tomorrow and our expectation is they will hike in december as well we are pencilling about three hikes in 2019. there is a chance that they lean nor dovish the decision the fed has to make is does it let an already strong economy keep running or come in and hike at an accelerated rate and risk a recession inflation is accelerating beyond the 2% limit and he talked about alan greenspan in the 1990s. he went against conventional thinking and he correctly sensed that new economy productivity would keep inflation low. >> does that dovishness cause you to think twice about three interest rate hikes in 2019?

>> i think there is decision-making where they move the dots lower we will see how that goes. if that does happen we think risk assets will make a strong bounceback especially in emerging markets. >> how big of a threat is the fed to what it does in what's going on in the markets right now? >> as we are all sort of saying, i think that right now the economy is strong. business sentiment is at an all-time high. household sent the high unemployment at an all-time low. the economy is strong and growing. i think that the fed so far has been and has indicated that it will continue to be accommodating. so although these hikes are the most we have seen in about a decade, they are -- they do seem to be adom dating and the market continues to present opportunities in risk assets to investors. >> so silvia, let me turn to something we discussed in the

last hour with robert schiller he seems to believe that investors broadly speaking have lost their healthy skepticism about the pace of corporate earnings growth, which of course underpins to some degree or another what stocks do in terms of their prices. talk me through that a little bit. do you see the same thing? are they too exuberant about the possibility that corporate earnings are going to keep chugging along >> it's certainly possible we saw the markets last week pretty much just completely shrug off tariffs and trade wars we see a lot of that continuing into this week so, and i think there is some good reason for that going back to the economy, the jobs numbers, you know, 3q earnings are expected to be very good and sort of very healthy in a lot of sectors this year, they have performed and out performed

health care, tech, although there is some pull back on tech now. it's been a strong year for the s&p 500, strong for the nasdaq, and the dow. investors are holding on to sentiments of corporate taxes continuing to play out in the marketplace. deregulation continuing to play out in the marketplace and companies really starting to benefit from those things in the bottom line over the next few quarters so i think part of the sentiment of optimism comes from a lot of tail winds into large cap corporations. >> what about the trade war? trade tensions we are seeing having an impact on the expectation of ceos, whether they feel confident in continuing with capex strategies how do you see it playing out over the next year >> it's the biggest risk facing financial markets and the global economy. the situation is so murky and fluid and so uncertain as to pinpointing the impact of tariffs, it's difficult to say

the spread of global supply chains, it's hard to pinpoint what the impact would be unfortunately, if you look at the escalation element of strayed war, i think it could go higher across the political spectrum, whether it's republicans, democrats, independents there is a consensus that trade with china is unfair. >> do you think that there is a disconnect between how economists view the impact of the trade war and tariffs and in general how investors view it? we spoke with larry lindsey and he was saying it's basically a simple straightforward calculation. you plug the numbers into the model, it flows out $4 billion, $8 billion impact to the economy and that's not a big number. >> right >> we were talking about the qualitative impacts that cannot be fed into a model. >> yes and the second order impact as well, which comes from consumer kchs and business confidence which can take affect at a later stage. i think some of this escalation can be with us for a while going into the midterm elections and

the president in his speech today indicated that he wants a world of free trade and reciprocal trade that means that markets will have to get used to ongoing negotiations between the u.s. and china. >> thanks a lot. coming up, jim cramer with an exclusive interview with salesforce ceo marc benioff. also, just buying time magazine. the state of tech and the purchase of that institution. plus, nike shares sprinting into first place in the dow this year will the momentum continue with earnings on deck or should investors sit on the bench and the bad news only a fraction of families take advantage of 529 savings plans the good news, those that do are saving record amounts. what youeetonocongp. nd kw mi u [ upbeat music ]

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probation or home confinement. the prosecution had asked for the maximum. the judge kind of went right down through the middle of that. he also earlier this morning declared cosby a sexually violent predator, which basically means that mr. cosby has to undergo counseling on a continual basis every quarter. he has to report to authorities. and his name will appear on a sex offender registry, which will be sent to neighbors, schools, and also victims. so bill cosby sentenced to three to ten years in state prison for the 2004 sexual assault conviction his defense is expected to appeal that particular sentence. no word yet on whether they have done that or are going to file those papers today, but it is widely expected that they will do that. mr. cosby is 81 years old, he is legally blind. back to you. >> what a fall from grace.

thank you. salesforce merging siri wit its mobile apps. the stock hit an all-time high earlier today. let's send it out to "mad money's" jim cramer who joins us from salesforce's dream force conference with marc benioff the founder and ceo of salesforce hi, jim. >> oh, tyler, thank you so much. i think we are at the celebration not of just of your birthday, happy birthday marc. >> thank you. >> but 171,000 people coming together to learn, to meet - >> i think they came for my birthday, right? >> why not every year it's a few more, so maybe it's working tell us what's going on here. >> jim, this is the largest conference in the technology industry we have 170,000 people here. ten million joining us online. this is dream force. we are in san francisco. it's all of our most favorite customers, developers of course our employees, our partners. like we say, all of our

stakeholders are here. together they are our family this is a family reunion. >> there is news here this year. there is always news this time i bumped into arnie sorensen, the ceo of marriott. he is excited about your apple siri salesforce project. we spoke yesterday about it. i have to tell you, i think it's pretty breakthrough. not one of those phony partnerships i will take it from you. how is it going to work? >> every company has to rethink who they are in. including marriott that's why arnie sorenson is here you will see in the keynote we are going to show a in you vision for the future of marriott all the technology, everything they need to do to connect with their customer in a whole new way. yes, that includes starting right when you get into a marriott, your digital key on your phone then the ability to talk to siri and say, please order me my favorite sandwich. but when i order my favorite

sandwich, how does to know because in salesforce we know the customer database, your favorite turkey sandwich is there and we are going to bring it to your room. then when it says, will you please lower the lights to 37 degrees, and then the lights come down, and now will you increase the temperature and warm this room up? and the warm -- the temperature warms up in the room how does to know where does to get the data how does to have the customer background it comes from salesforce we are the back end. this is what the conference is about. helping these incredible people, our trail blazers, know how to build these systems. >> this is the first time i heard you say point blank it's voice. voice is in charge siri must be better than the old days sometimes i think you were saying, wow, it's not really working. it's here? >> why is that because we had to build something amazing first. this isn't voice recognition that we did. we built something, jim, called salesforce einstein.

salesforce einstein. number one artificial intelligence platform in enterprise applications. we now are doing billions of einstein transactions every day. the ability for our customers to radically use artificial intelligence to make them more productive and smarter about their customers. so what we do is we're connecting einstein to siri or einstein to any other voice platform then we take that voice recognition and we're moving it to the database. don't forget when i say i want that turkey sandwich or i want my favorite sandwich, siri knows what i'm saying with my voice. but then we have to be able to take that and retrieve it or insert it into the customer database that's the magic that's einstein voice. it is the glue, the middle ware, the energy that links all the voice systems that you are using in your home, on your phones, with the number one crm

salesforce. >> let's talk about what salesforce is doing. on that last conference call i was astounded, you said it ceos are spending like you have never seen how is that possible we hear about trade wars, slowdowns. you don't get this kind of spending without some kind of boom happening. >> jim, i said it on your show first. the economy is ripping it is still ripping. you saw the numbers. these huge growth numbers. we said it first we know because we are listening to these customers and we see them with their orders why did salesforce just deliver another 27% growth quarter the a our size, right? the fastest growing of the top five software companies. why is that? because incredible demand from customers to rebuild their systems. they are benefiting from the tax breaks they are benefiting from huge economies that are growing at rates they have never seen before, even here in san francisco. our unemployment now is, i think, below 3%. that's amazing. >> and you are not afraid to say the lower tax rates, which was

an initiative of president trump, did work? >> oh, i can tell you emphatically that i have talked to personally hundreds and hundreds of ceos not just in our country. all over the world and all of them have consistently said to me the reason that they are investing more is because of the confidence they have from the tax breaks. >> incredible. now, keith block named co-ceo. you bought time magazine, $190 million i think some people say, you know, marc's on the way out. you say you have a lot of things you want to do, including keeping great people and preserving institutions? >> the business is improving the state of the world i'm deeply committed to having a positive global impact my number one platform is this company. salesforce was built on that from the beginning we put 1% of our equity, our profit, and our time of course, i didn't realize that now that would turn into a quarter billion dollars of

donations to others. today we gave $15 million more to the san francisco public schools. millions of hours of volunteerism and we run almost 40,000 nonprofit and ngos for free on our platform we want to give back i am constantly looking for ways to give back in a positive way. >> does to get the best people some of the companies have not gotten the best reputation lately for preserving values they preserve prochts over values salesforce gets better recruits. is it values >> jim, the number one thing that every ceo must ask and every employee or stakeholder must ask, what is the most important thing to me? what is the most important thing to our company what is our highest value? i know what it is at salesforce. it's trust trust is our highest value nothing is more important than the trust we have with our customers -- >> and if you lose that trust, what happens longer term >> how do you have a business in today's world? in the fourth industrial

revolution when everyone and everything is connected how can you operate? if trust not your highest value and you see it in the tech industry right now, your employees and executives are going it walk out. >> that's exactly what's happening. >> you better decide now trust is your highest value. in this new world when everything is changing, people want to know they can trust you, and, jim, that's why they tune into your show they trust you thank you. >> thank you, marc thank you, guys. thank you for the time. >> great interview, jim. thanks jim will have much more from san francisco tonight on "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern time here on cnbc. coming up, despite all the drama, nike is crushing it, up 35% this year. should you tune out the noise and buy ahd enis?eaofarng trading nation is next

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together we'll make the right choice. welcome back to "power lunch. time for trading nation. you know what that means trading nation che check out nike heading into its earnings report after the bell it is the best performing dow stock this year. up 35%, almost 36%

will its winning rally continue? is matt, what are the charts telling you? >> the stock is getting a little overbrought on a near term basis. you might see a little bit of a pull back when they report their earnings longer term, it looks quite good talking about the stock in january, i highlighted how it has a nice long-term base with a double bottom, and then it was moving up higher and about to break above the 2015 highs it did that. sure enough, it's seeing a very, very nice run. some people may be concerned that the stock is, it's not only 35% year to date, but up 66% since october. people might worry it's getting ahead of itself and the market you have to remember that the stock underperformed for the two years leading into the october lows it fell 11% versus a 40% rally in the s&p so i think the stock has been playing catch up here. it bodes well for the stock as

we move forward. >> you look at that chart and look at the most recent move, mike the simple question is, is it a buy? the question in the question is, did colin kaepernick's ad help or hurt it >> well, you know, as you already talked about, nike's stock has done very well in 2018 but as matt highlighted, in 2016 and 2017 they lost share and the stock was very stagnant. so in my opinion, the stock has now moved from a value stock to a current momentum play here so, yeah, fundamentals are very strong especially in the all-important north american market. and i think the kaepernick ad has reinvigorated the brand and added to the momentum. so i think this is reflected in the stock price. it trades in a high 20s multiple on next year's earnings. to summarize, if i owned it i would not sell it. you still have momentum in the stock.

but if i was looking for a fresh money idea, i don't think nike would be the play here it's ran too much in the past 12 months so if you own it, keep it. if you you're looking for, you know, fresh money, find another idea until you get a better entry play. >> clear answer. mike, matt, thank you very much. for more trading nation head to our website. coming up, oil prices hitting a four year high amid the geopolitical uncertainty, can they stay at these levels that's next. now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> when markets get volatile, it's a good idea to reduce the size of your trades or consider scaling in and out of your positions. taking on a position larger than you are comfortable with in order to maximize gains increases your risk. scaling in and outel hps you buy and sell part of your position and potentially more favorable prices benjamin franklin

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markets. the dow had been higher as much as 72 points right now down by 44 s&p down by 2. nasdaq eking out a gain of 15 points leading the dow, mcdonald's and

disney, lacking intel and procter & gamble the semi stocks on pace for their worst day in a week after raymond james downgraded the entire sector. now sue herera for a cnbc update. >> thank you so much here's what's happening at this hour everyone. moments ago a judge sentenced bill cosby to three to ten years in prison for drugging and sexually molesting temple university administrator andrea constand in 2004 prosecutors were seeking a sentence of five to ten years. the defense asking for house arrest for the 81-year-old comedian. president trump's address to the u.n. general assembly drawing a variety of reactions from blank stares, head shakes, and even laughter from world leaders. he opened his speech about how successful his administration has been >> in less than two years, my administration has accomplished more than almost any

administration in the history of our country. america's so true. didn't expect that reaction, but that's okay. >> and dunkin' donuts is dropping the doughnuts from its name this to reflect the increasing emphasis on coffee and other drinks the change takes place in january. it has more than 12,000 locations around the world that's the news update this hour back to you. >> thank you very much. let's go over to jackie deangelis, the reporter who has done more than any other reporter in history at the cnbc commodity desk. >> you are right on that one oil is higher today already on these elevated levels. year to date up 20%. the president wants lower oil price prices he wants opec to do something about it meantime, maybe some of this is a little overdone.

the iranian president telling nbc news the u.s. is not capable of bringing the exports to zero. there is some truth to that. u.s. allies may respect the sanctions but that doesn't mean that other folks like the chinese won't, guys. back to you. >> i like that that's knowing your value. >> exactly. oil briefly dipped lower after president trump attacked opec during his speech this morning at the united nations. here it is >> opec and opec nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and i don't like it nobody should like it. we defend many of these nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. not good. >> so with the president attacking opec, what does it mean for oil prices? joining us is helema kroft

good to see you. >> thank you for having me. >> what is opec's role here in terms of trying to cover the gap that may present itself to the global market with the iran sanctions? >> opec has actually been a pretty good first responder. they have put a significant number of barrels on the market since president trump started tweeting and since the june meeting. the challenge for opec going forward and for president trump is there is not a lot of gas in the tank i mean, saudi arabia is about 320,000 barrels away from their 2016 pre-cut high. there is a question mark about how much more they can really do beyond that in the near term so he can denounce opec, but really the question is, is that the real culprit for the price problem right now? >> is it i mean, president trump ditched the iran nuclear deal and is enforcing the sanctions against iran now. >> aggressively enforcing the sanctions against iran china will likely continue to

purchase iranian barrels, but they will likely be the only purchaser and significant volume so you are looking at a situation by year end where you could have, you know, a million to, you know, 1.5 million barrels off the market there were reports out today that india may go close to zero by november 4. it's going to be a significant hole in the market that the opec producer, russia is going to have to fill at a moment when u.s. production, the permian is really bottle nekd the problem for trump is there are not a lot of additional barrels out there. >> so to tease it out a little bit more, it sounds like you do not agree with the president that opec is the culprit here? >> i mean, president trump, i think, was effective when he started tweeting in april about opec i think he was a key reason opec started putting more barrels on the market i think they were responding to his tweets i think going forward it's going to have diminishing returns because they simply can't put that many more barrels on the market in the near term.

the saudis said they will do whatever it takes. they will likely have to draw from inventories if they have to make up for supply gaps over the next six months. >> do you feel like his job is tougher this time around he mentioned specifically we have been protecting the middle east without us, they would not be as safe as they are today. >> again it becomes an interesting dynamic in terms of the middle east. president trump has enjoyed very good relations with saudi arabia the more he goes forward denouncing countries like iran, that could add tensions. the saudis have been fairly responsive in putting more barrels on this market. >> all right thank you. >> thank you. still ahead, trade tensions, risk to the rally and a look at how we went from first to worst in the cnbc stock draft. kevin o'leary joins us next to talk about all of that power lunch is back in two

welcome back to "power lunch. good news on the college savings front to tell you about. joining us with is the newest member of cnbc's family, frank holland. welcome. >> thanks, guys. >> well here it is americans are saving for college

at a record level. the total amount in 529 college savings plans an all-time high in the first half of this year that number almost $329 billion, nearly a 3% increase over last year, and a more than 300% increase over 529 savings in 2008 the money in the average account increased to a new all-time high and stands now at $100 more than last year. this even as fewer than half of parents use 529s according to a survey by t. roe price the plans have gotten a boost under the new tax law which allows families to use the money for private k through 12 tuition for the first time experts say the increased flexion bt, the cost of college and the strength of the u.s. economy and generous tax breaks have driven up the savings rate. there are a few things to keep in mind. to get the benefit the money must be used for education if your kid decides not to go to college, you have to pay taxes

on that money saved to get it out of the account you can transfer the account to another family member like another cheeld, a niece or even yourself for continuing education without any penalty. guys. >> is that level of saving expected to keep on going? >> well, you know, the total is likely to increase by maybe one or two more billion. people are going to take money out for fall tuition but the number of families using the 529 plans is expected to increase to 14 million by the end of the year right now it's at 13.6 million. >> why do so few, as a percentage, families take advantage of it? >> they are trying to figure that out here is the thing. >> last year it was only about 27%. so keep that in mind they think that the strengthening economy is allowing more people to put money in 529s. >> a few financial advisors say you are better off maximizing your 401(k) savings so there is no reliance on whether your kid goes to college or not you get conflicting advice. >> parents have that struggle. do i save for my kids college or

myself? in some respects, you might be better off saving for yourself so you are not a burden to your child. >> i am saying to my kids i am going to be a burden on you whether you like it or not. jeff daily on the company's technology play, how it could make a difference when disaster strikes. we are back after this ♪ that's confident. but it's not kayak confident. kayak searches hundreds of travel and airline sites to find the best flights for us. so i'm more than confident.

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trade in focus president trump speaking at the u.n. calling for fairer trade deals. the ustr chief making comments that time could be running out to make a deal with canada joining us is kevin o'leary, o share's etf chairman and "shark tank" co-host and a canadian do you think we will get a deal done with canada, most specially by the self-imposed deadline of the 30th of september? >> no, i don't think it's going to happen. most people don't understand why. it's a very, very simple equation 338 seats in the canadian parliament 78 of them in quebec

quebec is basically controlled by supply side management, that's dairy farmers in those constituencies never has a politician been successful throwing dairy farmers under a bus in canada and winning an election. that never happens because they are very powerful as a lobby and the unfortunate situation is most canadians don't care about supply side management they are overpaying for dairy and poultry by 60% for this. so it's kind of crazy. you have got basically 19,000 farmers controlling the political destiny of the next direction. trudeau doesn't want to lose he doesn't have much to provide in terms of giving on dairy. this is a strange situation. if this fails and the real industries of canada like automotive, which represents 49% to provinces like ontario, if that is tariffed, he will have a different problem. the people who have jobs will start to lose them he is in a horrible place. he can't say throw the dairy farmers under the bus and win an

election, but if he does protect them he may lose next november or whenever the election is called i have never seen a situation like this in canada before. >> the u.s. president has made repeated references to the tariffs on canadian -- on u.s. products going into canada when is the next canadian election, for those of us who don't know >> under canadian law, trudeau can call an election tomorrow morning. there has been speculation while there is this very interesting dynamic to protect its soz, he might do that to do a surprise election it's unlikely though because people want to see the outcome of the nafta negotiations one way or the other that's going to happen in a matter of weeks one way, and either it's going to be settled -- what trump should do is think about is he going to give flexibility on dairy? if he is not, they should telegraph that because trudeau is not and what happens after that,

it's a jump ball it's sheer craziness i have to tell you, as somebody who watches international trading, this is not good for investing in canada. we need to trade with our largest partner. 38 states in the u.s., canada is their largest partner. this is a massive game of chicken. two cars coming right at each other. i don't know what is going to happen nobody does. >> i want to get to brass tacks, kevin, and talk stock draft. last year you famously won the stock draft taking home a giant trophy right now you are in last place. if you had your druthers, what would you do with your picks how would you shuffle them around >> melissa, i wouldn't change a thing. i got to tell you about these stock drafts you have to be bold. you have to take risks i did that i have some controversial names. frankly, i am getting bored of winning all the time it's just -- >> oh, so you want to lose to shake it up >> and i'm not going to lose i'm not going to lose. what's going to happen is probably, and this is the big

risk i am taking, if blue apron is taken out between $4 and $5 a share, i will yet again another year in a row crush the competition as i did last year i feel bad about this, you know? there is a reason they call me mr. wonderful. i want everybody to feel good all the time there can only be one winner you are looking at him right now. watch this come to pass between now and super bowl i will take it again. >> your hopes and dreams rest on blue apron being taken out >> at least i'm transparent. i'm being transparent. by the way, melissa, if i have to, i'll buy blue apron myself. >> oh! that's your card that's good. >> we will watch the stock chart right now, kevin. >> all right kevin o'leary. >> just kidding. just kidding just kidding. >> k-o thanks appreciate it. "shark tank." >> take care. when faced with floods, fires or accidents, time is of

the he is pence when reporting claims and getting the help you need, farmers insurance teamed up with salesforce's technology hoping to cut that time in half. jim cramer joins us from dream force with farmers insurance ceo jeff, the florence hurricane, how were you able to handle that versus even katrina? >> it is completely different. we have mobile claims and command centers. we know whether they have had property losses or not we are able to speed up the

claims we are actually getting appraisal. technology has sped up the process considerably >> i pay insurers. it's like i write the check or whatever i never feel like i'm being treated well what do they do in order to be able to make it so you're many are in touch did you tell them because you know there were going to b problems >> we didn't do that people give mideastly an event like this dislocated from their homes. we are able to actually -- where we have customer relationship laws is have cell phone numbers to get them a status on their homes. in homeowners insurance we can make sure they have money right away

we can get involved that much faster >> it is people that are in the way of storms ahead of i'm >> is that -- did you flknow whe to go? i think people don't understand that it is for insurance >> absolutely. it is happening for insurance. i would say it's more but it is absolutely helping us predict what we need to do to help them. >> i think people don't understand because there's no stock here technology enables you to be able to have more money to put in other places than just people how has farmers dealt with people so technology can make it so you're more popular >> really it's about two things. one is about making it a lot more efficient

we are also more effective because of the use of technology it allowed us to be more effective. the other thing is our poor business model is around exclusive agents real value that they bring is relationship they can create with thatcustomer

>> florence is a lot like harvey last year. there's biggest mates. i won't say i know what the number is. there are big estimates. i will guess something like 80% will be unsured. >> it is a very tough situation for people >> what do they tell people? when do insurers pay situations? >> so it would pay off in the event of a hurricane >> cars? >> yeah. car insurance is covered homeowners is not covered. and so really what our agents are doing is telling people they need to be buying flood policies we sell them we administer that for the federal government >> i better go get one >> does artificial intelligence

tell you you shouldn't be riding along the beach one day? >> we are using it to understand our exposure here in california with wild fires in terms of ho wild fireshappen >> thanks guys >> check please is next. need a change of scenery?

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ythen you turn 40 ande everything goes. tell me about it. you know, it's made me think, i'm closer to my retirement days than i am my college days. hm. i'm thinking... will i have enough? should i change something? well, you're asking the right questions. i just want to know, am i gonna be okay? i know people who specialize in "am i going to be okay."

i like that. you may need glasses though. yeah. schedule a complimentary goal planning session today with td ameritrade. is judge denying a request cosby sentenced to three to ten years in prison for drugging and sexually assaulting a woman at his home ten years ago >> check please. >> check please here we are watching blue apron he would buy blue apron himself in order to win. he said he was joking.

we see the stocks reacting it is a very small market cap about 350 milli$350 million shares are spiking 10% on this joke that he made. >> after our conversation about knowing your value i want today point out that amazon says that they will be at the announcing team for prime presentation of 11 thursday night football games. this is a huge deal. >> they will be the announcers >> wow staying with sports, seven-year-old malia crushed the national anthem. >> the land of the free and the home of the brave.

♪ >> that was really really good >> what a voice from such small little girl. >> wow >> watch the whole thing if you gate chance. thanks for watching. >> closing bell starts right now. >> instagram founders and what it means for the future of the social media giant >> i'm meg at cnbc headquarters. take ago big step to lower the cost of two of its drugs, what's behind the move and whether others will follow suit. earnings in just over an hour from now. we'll bring you numbers and any impact f