back on bonds right now. it is at a record high so if there's that short covering aspect we could see a snap >> yes >> as we get ready to turn it over the closing bell we should point out the dow is 100 points off of the lows of the day as the bond deal hits 3.2 >> thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell right now ♪ good afternoon warm welcome to the closing bell i'm wilfred frost. >> and let's get straight to the market actions treasury yields have hit fresh multi-yield highs. s&p now down less than 1%. they were down more than 1% earlier in the session nasdaq down sharply almost 2%. yields have had a huge impact.

it did cross taking it to the highest level since 2011 now back just below that 3.2% level. >> nasdaq also well off the session lows coming up we'll talk to former wells fargo about how banks will be impacted by rising rates. that group on focus today. jim grant too will give us his take on what's behind this selloff. those coming up on the closing bell let's begin with today's broader market pictures. bob joining us with the big drivers and the big movers >> it's simple when you get a big move in a short period it unsettles the market let's sum marrize what's been going on number one most importantly global bond yields and even global bond yields have been rising in the last couple of days putting more pressure on the immerging markets. now we have a secondary story.

this story about potential tech spying is effecting the number of tech stocks i say it because the real damage is in the nasdaq you look at apple and amazon which were implicated in this. you know, you see what's going on here about 2% let's take a look at the other sectors also in the tech sector are the most effective the over drps aall market is pry indiscriminate to the downside now banks should have been a big beneficiary of the fact that the yield curve has been moving up in the last couple of days some of the bigger names are up today. you would have expected maybe a little bit more. these were down more earlier they rallying a little bit here. i can still say the reaction fairly muted in the last couple of days. finally, i have been asked a lot about why some of the luxury

retailers are weak today no big stories out there there may be concerning about global luxury consumers pulling back a little bit if the economy slows down the one thing i do want to note is we rallied more than 100 points in the last 25 minutes. stay tuned it will be a very interesting close. >> yes the dow was 356 points let's get to our closing bell. steven is here, rick santelli. rick, i'll start with you. talk us through how big this move in bonds was at the peak of the day and the fact that we have come back off of those peaks. >> yeah. no it was a big move. traded darn close to 290 if you look at ten year they traded it 323. right now all maturities are audiotape one basis point and

all sticking at very short levels the ten year note about 7 and the 30 year bond about 4 the interesting part of this is -- and bob lead off with it, it's about global rates. the ecb is october 1st to cut their purchases in half as the bank of japan is looking around deciding it has to also cut back what we are looking at are the relationships and even though some of those yields in japan and europe have moved up just consider the spread and it is about 267 basis points it has never been this wide. yesterday was up to 275. we need to continue to monitor that it will put pressure on country specific central banks and the other issue is that this dance between the equity markets and treasury markets trying to equate how they harmonize is always a rough process and it

shouldn't be shocking that the big move from a 305 stagnant market escalating close to 3.25 has made the stock market a little nervous some times it takes a couple of days investors are okay with rising rates as long as it's not a persistent head wind in the sector of stocks >> got it. thank you very much. what do you think? is it worried? have things really changed has the game totally switched around >> i feel like we have done this already obviously to rick's point. it is the velocity that the rates increase jamie has commented on it. i think he said -- and correct me if i'm wrong, 4% is the rate it impedes on growth others now you went from 3 to 3.5 to 4 others feel it could be 5. it is the velocity that we get

there. i think we had the preloaded selloff already. i'm not sure why we would see any further escalation in immerging markets and any selloff we would have in domestic has been bought thus far. >> and talk to us about this rise in rates. is it concerning you or based on fundamental bait that which is something we should be positive about? >> rates are rising for all of the right reasons and that's economic growth. we are seeing really good numbers coming out even today on the nonmanufacturing sector. we are expecting a bullish strong markets number. we saw it in the adp report. all systems are a go what's unusual about current economic conditions is it's unusual for unemployment and inflation to be this low for this long. but as we return to normal monetary policy, slightly higher interest rates we can expect

more volatility. i think that's what you're seeing today >> is this really the comments that took us this leg lower on equities we have known that the economy has been strong. was it powell? >> i think it was powell but then also yesterday we had jp morgan downgrading, em equity, chinese ek chinese equities we saw that was happening. for me i would think powell would take his foot off the gas if rates are doing what he wants to do without him involved wouldn't you think it would be a natural progression or am i thinking too dovish on this? >> talk to us about what it means for other markets. clearly it weighed on u.s. equities today in realtimes is it going to hurt markets more than it would hurt the u.s. market? >> i think it will i think it definitely will

in a very generic form it made servicing a bit more expensive you can see countries like china issuing dollar denominated debt only several times in the last 12 to 13 years have they done that i think it obviously puts pressure in the immerging markets. let's put it into context. we are only a penny away from challenging the current highs that were established in august in the dollar indeks i think the other issue whether it's commodities, gold it does have an effect on commodities. i think it is unraveling and the carry trade which also i think could be part of the reason that we are seeing this quick is

exit >> let's take a look down about 2% at this point. is the tech rally over is it time to move on or was this a stutter step for these names? >> it was a stutter step there are three reasons we like tech one it is the internet of things, two and three there's data analytics there's still ways for these tech firms to build and to grow their market share the question we have and what we advise our investors, are you over invested in tech? should you use it to rebalance so you're in a broad range we have seen this as your share, your portfolio gets too slanted or t it is a cause for concern. when that begins to dominate we saw it in financials and now it's tech. so we do raise a little bit of caution in terms of being

overinvested in tech tech is the future we see there's a lot of really good business. >> got it. we appreciate your perspective thanks so much for being with us here today on this important market day let's get more on this story. it could be pressuring some tech stocks today a new report suggests used a small ship including apple and amazon josh has more on that story. >> u.s. government officials have long been concerned about the security of the supply chain that is so many american companies rely on. a new story shows exactly why. bloom bloomberg saying that the chinese military forced chinese manufacturers to insert special chips into components that ultimately went into servers assembled by a company called super micro.

they then made they way including some u.s. tech giants. the apparent role of such implanted devices opening doors that attackers could exploit getting their hands on sense tifr corporate information the targets of this attack dispute it amazon saying there are so many inak cure sis as it relates to amazon they are hard to count. apple saying each time we have conducted rigorous internal investigations based on their inquiries and each time we have found absolutely no evidence to support any of them. super micro saying it has never found any malicious chips for been informed that such chips have been found. investors sending stocks cratering. the market cap falling below 500 million. today mark warner telling cnbc it provides more evidence that

china's pattern of behavior is a serious threat to national security and supply chain risk management back to you. >> thanks very much for that i mean those clear responses that you read us from the companies we note but we didn't get an outright guarantee from the likes of apple and amazon that these have not happened is that also fair to say >> i think it's fair to say. to me these apparently came as real denials i have been covering apple far while. in talking to the company this is a full denial they are not acknowledging that there are any vulnerabilities here it is a complicated story. obviously it hits, gets everybody in tech talking. the intended targets seem to deny it. it's not clear also when i read through that article i didn't get a good sense of how much data is being alleged that

the chinese got ahold of they did say in clear back and white here no consumer data is known to have been stolen. listen, probably not the end of the story but certainly a complicated one. >> appreciate you following this for us for more we'll get to ceo of area one security and john of intelligence analysis. you studied this every day all of the time. what do you think? is this a serious concern? did it happen? did it not what now >> supply chain attacks are a really serious concern you know, we see that attackers consistently don't go directly after their targets. they often work through the third party trust in business relationships that companies rely on so much. certainly something needs to be taken extremely seriously despite the denials or despite like of evidence this is something that needs to

be addressed and there's a greater role here for government and driving accountability and how we will respond going forward. >> how capable are china for the u.s. versus china whether it is hacking or legitimate activitie when it koncomes to the likes do you think these have been going on unnoticed for quite some time? >> they are certainly stepping up their game. we started seeing them really with very simplistic fishing attacks and going after very specific individuals but every one of these actors is attempting to make the evolutionary jump up the supply chain and further into -- further up the chain where they can control more the only problem is as they sort of scale up they risk

exposeture it is much harder to hide an operation of that nature recently -- >> and now -- >> sorry go ahead >> and we have seen china carry out attacks on cloud providers for instance that allowed them to target not just one organization but all of the organizations that cloud providers served >> and john brings up an interesting point about being able to detect some of these it suggests it could have been as small as a grain of rice. i'm stuck on the fact that the companies are basically saying no no no, this isn't true. could they know for sure they found it or not? >> it could certainly be challenging to know that i think it's important to take a step back. you know, the challenge that we are facing here in cyber security is not really about china or russia.

it's a much broader problem. we are not seeing companies are able to be accountable either. you can survive attacks. the reality is if they are effective that's what the attackers are going after. it's far too easy to cause challenges through the hardware supply chain, software supply chain. we know they love to use fishing campaigns and really it should be what we will do to reverse and drive more accountability from all of the different players. i think it means we have to work more wholistically and think about the success that we can have here. humans have accomplished so many things here there's no reason we can't be successful here i'm not

talking about reports of today's latest attacks but have they been too keen to expand profits by going into regions like china and russia

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only two sectors on the s&p are higher, financials the rest are all lower including one, two, three, four sectors down more than 1% tech and the bottom at less than 1.9%.

as u.s. treasury yields have hit multi-year highs former chairman and ceo, very good afternoon to you. thanks for joining us. i have a chart of the index year to date. despite a couple of daysov of gains a clear performance. why do you think they have been so sluggish? >> i think that's lot of concerns about tariffs there are concerns and how long can this very strong economic environment continue banks are very dependent on strong economic growth >> is that a catalyst to reignite the sector?

>> i have been wrong yes. bangs are one of the few industries that benefit from increased interest rates especially the steepening of the yield curve. again, just look at the facts here it is 25 to 30% less than the market the market is very elevated. i like the fact they have good dividends. so i just think they are cheap and eventually the market will wake up and particularly if they continue to have reasonably good earnings the next week or so we'll see good earnings. >> as interest rates go higher the interest margin expands. that is assuming it stays robust any concerns about loan growth demand as rates move higher? >> really not.

rates are still low by any historical standards remember, a lot of bonds, rightfully so, corporations are buying bonds when they were so ridiculously low they weren't really using loans or commercial loans as much. i think you're not going to see as many bond issuers anymore they will need to fund themselves with commercial loans and i think it will be a benefit. >> you mentioned the weighing down of places like italy has done is that legitimate is it fair that u.s. banks have sold off on negative days for italy assets >> no. i don't think it's about the banks in italy could italy cause a deep recession in europe? could it unravel other currencies around the world because it's a big country

it's not grease. it's four or five times bigger it could start some sort of a worldwide reduction in economic growth >> it sounds like you're interested in looking into this sector how are you? of course financials have lagged any chance that we could see banks sort of become the new tech names as we go into the year >> i don't know. i believe, as i said, they are priced to go up a lot. i personally have been selling everything except my -- not everything but a lot of my tech and other stocks here in the past two months and buying banks because i think they are company and get paid to wait because you have a good dividend >> which banks in particular it looks like they are moving higher in today's action >> yeah, well i like the

regionals. i like -- i have a lot of banks that i own and i also own bank indexes particularly regional bank indexes so it's a very diversified portfolio. let's put it that way. >> okay. great stuff. always good to see you former wells fargo ceo we have 34 pliminutes left of trade. the dow is down 234 points the low has been 356 still red across the screens nasdaq is down nearly 2% stocks have been falling due to fears of rising rates. coming up we'll discuss why the midterm elections could be a catalyst and later he correctly called the record rally. ndutf he thinks today's selloff is the start of something larger or buying opportunities. stick with the closing bell. we help farmers lock in future prices,

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welcome back to the closing bell nasdaq is the best part of 2%. 31 minutes left of trade let's dive into individual stocks to watch. gold man says it is caused by rate declines and they also site increasing competition saying they need to find some new

scripted content they know that it is pretty attractive and the downgrade is from a price at 64 to price starting at 61 so it's not drastic. the other point they make is they feel like there's a premium and doeld man doesn't believe they are a target. so down 5.5% even though the price target was 34. >> got to be a lot of pressure ton writers. it st it isn't as good as it used to be a commercial committee to review the retailer says it received interest to acquire the company. stocks trading higher by more than 19% it is certainly not the time chairman owns 19%. there has been five ceo's.

it could be a tough one but invest fors for whatever reason seem optimistic. good afternoon, sue. >> good afternoon everyone here is what's happening at this hour gop senate leadership holding a conference to talk about the fbi report on brett kavanaugh. chuck grassly had this to say. >> this person is very well qualified. a person that believes in the principals of due process, readiness to serve are recognized so judge kavanaugh should be confirmed on saturday. >> miami-dade officials have closed select public beaches in that county siting an abundance of caution

kanye west paid a surprise visit to the college of creative studies. well, there you see the rapper he jumped up on a desk and defended tesla's ceo pleading he be left alone. a video of his rant which was posted on twitter went viral that's the news update this hour see you in an hour >> sue herrera back. we are down a full 2% on nasdaq and 4% on s&p and dow just outperforming dow stays in positive territory but all of the others in negative territory coming up president trump touted the record stock market. midterm election 33 days away. concerns about what a blue or red wave could do. we'll talk about what to watch ahead. first we'll talk about

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percent. nike, microsoft and home depot down about 2.5 nike down is 3%. today is grant's interest rate observer thanks for being here with us. >> hi. >> bond cycles often have a long lifetime is today overdue, right on time? >> it is overdue here we are nine years into what is turning out to be a pretty fair business expansion and the federal funds rate is after adjustment for inflation is about exactly zero and ten year treasury has delivered an inflation adjusted return of more than 2 percentage points is delivering less than half of that now so yeah, it's overdue. >> whether or not it's overdue put in perspective for us where we are in real terms and whether it should be really hurting the

economy fundamentally yet. >> well, i think we have to realize that interest rates, the key, the most important thing is it has been under the thumb of central banks for ten years. even today some 6 trillion of debt is priced to yield less than zero. there's been a huge distortion of interest rates worldwide. so you ask whether it will have a consequence. yeah people have borrowed in effect false prices we are all living in a hall of mirrors. it is artificial information it is kind of fake information >> yes >> so what happens next then are you saying that will be a big wake-up call for investors >> one at least i have blown out too many birthday candles but

what may happen, it may be that the great bond ended in july of 2016, that's a possibility the ten year yield prinltted in july of that year, it is now 330 there abouts if it were the case we embarked about it would be a rather long process. interest rates are unusual among oil prices and they tend to trend half of 2030 years 35 years up, 35 years down, 25 years this direction so it might be that we are in the early stages of a persistent rise in rates. we'll know more in 2050. >> and rates are moving higher around the globe you sort of eluded to this japan seeing the highest rate since 2016 >> yeah.

i know good point perspective of course but it's not just isolated here >> all major movements here tend to be global and not localized so that -- that is an argument on the side of this being something important. >> how much will china be feeling the pressure whether we are talking about the dollar or yields >> i think china will feel it. certainly a great deal of natural leverage in china. a great deal of very low quality borrowing and lending. and in such a case rivets begin to pop because people have structured their balance sheets and they have borrowed in the expectation of low rates and maybe, just maybe, the central bankers are losing rates what are they going to do? it might be that they are going to be responding to events

rather than seeming to expand them >> the deep central bank >> right >> earlier one of our traders says it's not so much the level they are sitting at but the pace at which they got there. >> here is what is different the last market was one beginning in 1946. that began at about 2.25%. not until ten years later did that yield reach 3.25. ten years for one percentage point. the tempo for this market if it is a bear market is much faster. it has gone to 3 point whatever it is now. >> just below 3 points >> yeah. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you >> always welcome to make a short walk across the road as you revealed jim is joining us. we have 20 minutes left to trade

and we are a full 2% on the nasdaq we kind of came off the lows and we are slipping again towards them still off the lows of the day. coming up consolation brands, one of the few stocks solidly in the green today. we'll find out what's behind that surge next. e > and we'll get his take on thmarket and how worries the u.s. should be about china the closing bell is back after this

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we are back on the closing bell banks and utilities the two sectors that are higher. >> shares of consolation plans are higher after reporting earnings this morning. we have more on the results and today's stock move hi frank hi the maker of corona reporting growth in beer, wine and spirits

and early returns on investments and q2 reporting a $639 million gain from its investment today constellation posting. a street consensus at $9.34 for the physical year. they are raising the bottom and top aend to $9.60 to $9.75 the stock outperforming over the last year. for the best trading day of the year for the core business on the call they were optimistic about their partnerships saying they have high hopes for cannabis. later this month able to give a 35% expected to be finalized they also have option to increase that stake to 50% in the future >> and vodka sales are pretty

strong today is national vodka day. >> i have heard that around the news room. also their wine sales are stronger that introduced corona premier beer business doing very well. >> as i understand because it's taco day today there were free tacos. was there free vodka as well >> i don't know if i should ek pose everything we got for free. yes. i can confirm there were free tacos. >> maybe they should quickly rectify and repay us with vodka. >> they that would be wonderful. i would take that trade. >> thanks very much. here we go about 14 minutes before the bell the dow is lower but certainly well off session highs the s&p down 25 points nasdaq composite down about 2% also off session lows. >> that is because it is among

some of the worst performers we'll head for a look at all of those movers closing bell back in a couple of minutes. don't go any where across web and tablet? do you want $4.95 commissions for stocks, $0.50 options contracts? $1.50 futures contracts? what about a dedicated service team of trading specialists? did you say yes? good, then it's time for power e*trade. the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. looks like we have a couple seconds left. let's do some card twirling twirling cards e*trade. the original place to invest online.

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welcome back to the closing

bell we have about ten minutes left dow is lower we were down as much as 357 points so certainly have come back. we have a important ten minutes left to go the sector down by 1.7%. hi what's all the action like >> those are new concerns and the rise in yields has lead to a sharp decline. sit today's big losers apple down about 2 to 4% with increased concerns around china it is worth noting chinese tech stocks are lower. it's not just technology the nasdaq is on pace for the biggest single day decline since

early april. it is one of the longest winning streaks dating back to 1985. >> and those big cap tech stocks very much effected by this china chip story still down significantly >> it is a trend we have seen throughout the year. it is what we are seeing today >> thanks very much for that we are coming back in a few minutes time with closing countdown. after the bell jeremy siegel, what he says is behind the market melt down that's later on the closing bell keep it right here

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bell juli julia is back at headquarters. >> stocks heading for their 12th strait day of decline. home builder dropping more than 1% today lowest close since april of 2017 it is also bracing for longest losing streak since february of 2006 they have lost 20% since the record close in late january >> thank you very much nar let's kick off with the ten year yield curve. we are of course lower the ten year yield has been a big factor we are back below 3.2. earlier we did cross to 3.23%. it was a seven year high it is the highest since 2011 it is one of the factors that

spooked equity markets today you can see significant declines we are below the dow down 356 points and it is now currently only 192 points the dow and the s&p both down less than 1% nasdaq down less than 2% those were not true about an hour or so ago let's have a look at the s&p to see how trade has gone the lows of the day were around about when the highs of the day. only two sectors in positive territories. they benefit from rising yields slightly stranger. they have had a very tough week coming into this technology. consumer discretionary all down more than 1% even though we have come off of

those lows clearly a lot of negative sector performances joining me now is bob to talk through the action today we have about three and a half minutes left to trade. main story for you today >> it was a little bit of a coop fusing day we started out with the interest rate story we saw interest rates throughout the day because higher markets were weak throughout the day we had an additional complication with the china tech story. we saw nasdaq notably weaker i thought it was why they were notably weaker we can't confirm any of this because it definitely clearly influenced the market overall. >> absolutely. it was the story for broader market it started with the whole surging interest rate no bun should really be surprised we have had a massive surge. the market has to back off at

some point what's really the number that will tip the balance is it 3.5? you had record highs recently. >> first of all you're making an assumption that i was selling today. why are you making that assumption >> i was a buyer today there you go >> there are some people looking at value in this >> did it kick in half way through the day as well? >> a little bit better can't talk about that. no early this morning they took a breather and as the day kind of settled in after we broke 2,900 i think people stood back from it to see if it was going to build when it didn't you kind of stick your toe back in >> i want to go back about the rate story and how high will it go corporate bond yields, we haven't seen it widen as well as their underlying treasuries yet.

if it starts to happen it means funding costs will go up that's what everyone is trying to figure out. it will be the little bit. >> it will be the concern when we start to see it that will be the problem >> wage growth tomorrow is what everybody is looking at tomorrow we are expecting 2.8% yearly growth in wages. if we get stronger than that you'll see this rate hike story come back. >> will we see banks continue? you have been look at least banks are positive >> i am surprised the banks have not responded better to not only the hike in yields but the steeper yield curve. >> yes >> they are up very very modestly though given the dramatic under performance of financials we have been talking about this. >> final thoughts? >> the bell is going to ring my final thought is i have to get out of here. >> okay. tomorrow 2.8% wage growth expected on the year

if we get notably higher this whole sbroes rate story is going to have a lot more >> there goes the bell today 356 points we are closing down around 200 points it is still down the best part of a percent and best part of 2% ringing the bell here are the big boards is investor relations conference and the nasdaq that does it book you -- back to you. welcome to the second half of closing bell. it ended up to be a wild day on wall street. the dow closed by only three quarters of a percent. the s&p down by a little more, eight tents of a percent

nasdaq down by .1% russell sell off shy of 1.5% jeremy siegel will join us to talk about today's selloff we'll want to follow about this for the rest of the hour what it means going forward. joining us today is michael and rob cox. the best performer on the dow today down by about 2.8% earnings higher by more than 5%. all right. let's get right into this. what a day it was. things really turned around towards the end of the day what do you make

>> we did stabilize towards the end of the day we basically also came up off of that 1% loss level on the dow. it seems to me it was another stress test bay two day rise across the market. he says what does it actually mean it has been pulling back below the market already ahead of a jobs report it wants to pull itself into a more knew r -- neutral position i think a stress test, a little bit of a gut check of whether we need more of this october pull-back action >> lots of factors out there whether it is tech, china or interest rates >> i went to a long lunch and i saw what had gone on it actually made sense to me if you have a pricing of the risk free rate it will be competitive with the equity

market it will have to be come t-- competitive. i was sort of struggling with what's the big stock story today? what's the thing that triggered this that suggested earnings would be down. really like mike said, the market repriced because the bond market did the same thing. it has to. >> we came off the -- we came off the lows of the day clearly. the s and p knocked down as much as a percent we haven't now had more than a 1% decline in a single day on the s&p for four months. is that kind of encouraging for whether we can get optimism? >> it is encouraging in the sense that the character is to kind of find something in the way of support when something else is going down it can't last necessarily forever. i think the average long term is 1% moves up or down. here we are going over a month without a single one

yeah it's an unusual period of time you did see a little bit of a response today it kind of crossed up above 15 which is some times a little bit of a level that says pay attention or start to become on alert. it closed back below it. the market kind of flirted with this idea that we are in a more unstable type environment. so it's encouraging in the sense that the market pulled itself together i don't think it changes cha the market has been this year, which is do to decide what the right is to place on a really good economy. >> so does that mean that earnings become even more important to sort of make the market's decision? >> it is going to merit looking at thee these numbers. i don't know if people have been properly looking at earnings every quarter. they have been kind of jacking up stocks or at least they haven't been responding

necessarily in the way they should you know, it should give people jitters. again, you a risk free rate that is now higher. you'll have to make a decision if you look at some of the stocks that sold off i think you had real tech selloff today. it skuggests that people will want to see some evidence before they get back on the bandwagon >> i think tech was the biggest lagger today tech still remains the best performing sector so far this year because it had run so far do you think that's real rotation underway or is it a plip on t blip on the radar? >> it doesn't strike me as a huge reallocation. i think it is where you had the highest profits where if you had a portfolio that said it is looking a little risky where treasury yields are looking

higher that's where you're going to take them down the most. i do think the china story matters, the report that was out there only because maybe it brings up the idea that it's going to have a harder line on trade with china and on essentially the relationships even if it was all just an excuse to take more profits. >> but on that point we also got a pretty strong rhetoric from the vice president today >> it was a level higher in a more considerate and thoughtful way does it concern you that any form sr. hopeless in terms of the near sneterm >> i think it entrenches the idea is that it's a trade cold war. it is kind of a long-term standoff and not looking for a way to become more integrated

but looking for ways to become less integrated with the global supply chain i think that's an issue. it started out with globalization. nobody knew exactly what that meant in terms of what you pay for stocks it was considered to be a prop for evaluations long term. >> when you talk about the facebook recent issue, whether it is true or not could it face a way bigger cost going forward for making sure they are safe whether it is data issues? >> they already are. they are trying to get -- i mean they are trying to get in front of the problem they are so far behind the curve in dealing with some of these

issues china is actually interesting. you mentioned thevice president's speech he talks about how the chinese are targeting states with retaliatory tariffs. they did that going after, you know, wisconsin and harley-davidsons or going after bourbon. so it's quite fascinating to think maybe a little bit of a double standard. the rhetoric against china is quite a bit higher than our friends in france and belgium. >> let's talk about how it is impacting markets today, the international picture including the rising rates and how it impacted markets around the world. the dollar was soft against the major currencies that are down 0.6% it is down and the dollar indeks at the bottom flat immerging market currencies were

so soft. it is down about a percent today or 0.8% there against the dollar you got the year to date star there. it is on a more median term time frame. it is definitely taking its toll this is the more domestic facing companies. year to date down some 23% so even more so compared to shanghai nasdaq still up some double digits it looked luke it was up today it was the return on tuesday china could wake up to catch up. and i guess it's long winltded with me saying that rates rising here but the people are really going to hurt of which china still is one and tied to what u.s. yields are doing. >> yeah. the front lines of the global

liquidity story. i do think they have been feeling the effects. it is down 2.5%. they bounced over the prior couple weeks it looks like maybe a tail wind and now it looks like a bounce it is a stress point in the global markets for now >> and your view on how china is taking all of this what about the fundamental economy and if it does continue to elevate as the vice president's rhetoric suggests it will, will he win out in this? >> the correlation between the stock market and rhetoric is pretty, that stock market is -- i'm not even sure it is anything is economically sensitive. it is a difficult market i do think you will see it in the economy. the sensitivity of the chinese economy to the exports is much

greater than it is in the united states our guys in china suggest that there is -- there's a lot of concern when they talk to ceos of any company there the first thing is they just sit there grilling them trying to find out more like what's going on it's funny they actually loved donald trump when they came in. they far preferred donald trump even though on the campaign trail there was so much about china being the bad guys they are quite scared. >> yes it's quite an interesting scenario that continues to unfold we want to bring in jeremy siegel thank you so much for joining us here today what do you think of the moves today? is this something that will be a blip ton the radar of which yields rose?

>> i think yields will definitely be a challenge to the stock market this quarter. remember, the two most important factors in stock prices are earnings and the interest rate now, the earnings this year was fantastic. if you want to know the truth is good news is out when i look at forward looking earnings estimates they are stable and even slightly declining. all of that is basically in the market now the sudden move upward in yields, that's the denominator of what we capitalize earnings on it will be a challenge last year i said that i was always asked what do you think 2018 will be i said 0 to 10%. we just about got to that 10%. we did i said yields were going to be a challenge. i thought it was going to come a little earlier it may be this quarter that we'll see the impact >> so are you saying that we are

going to see a pull back for the rest of the year or just a plateau? >> well, a plateau or a slight pull back. i mean even before the strong economic news we have gotten 12 out of the 16 fomc members said we are going to hike again in december and feds said it will hike three more times next year. that trajectory looks very very strong if it is going to be, you know, also moving up along with those rates it seems to me hard for the stock market to make a lot of progress. what is the good news? maybe if they make a deal on china before year end it will give you some pop. other than that i don't see what could drive stocks marketedly high they are quarter. >> tomorrow we'll get the jobs report how important is wage growth going to be this time around it was something that really tripped us up in the markets we want to see it but what does

that mean for equities what are your expectations for tomorrow >> yeah. it is very good. wage growth that's driven by labor markets is a problem the unemployment rate then becomes a problem as that keeps on heading down to multidecade lows yes. tomorrow is important. there is also going to be a november and december report before the fed meets in the december meeting there is still a lot more data that's going to come all of these early in a business cycle strong economic news is great for stocks that's lot of slack in the economy. higher interest rates don't matter like in an economic cycle, labor markets and you get a big push on demand that becomes a problem for interest rates and a problem for stock market this is really pretty classical

on how the business cycle works. >> yeah. which i guess brings really the big open question to exactly how late we are in this cycle. you look at all of the leading incaters none of them seem to be familiaring up rigflaring up right now most don't really happen unless you have a recession where does that leave the stock market being less generous and more choppy? >> we don't have any indicators of a recession this big jump goes against the inversion of the yield curve >> right >> you could argue the jump would make the fed more aggressive because they are not worrying about inverting and usually once you flatten the curve you still have 6 to 12 months before the recession begins some will argument it is a delay. i look at that unemployment

rate you know, it's supposed to take down to 3.8. look at the number that we got yesterday. i mean we don't -- the population and demographics is giving us 100,000 at most a month. if we will be at 250 driving jobs unless we can squeeze out but it's hope against hope we'll keep on lowering unemployment you know, we'll look at historical charts. if we hit 3.5% it is unleashed wage inflation so these are the factors that we'll be looking at. these are the factors that will be worrying stock investors in this quarter >> when we look at the dates released tomorrow do you think it will be one of those days when you're surprised to the upside that equity markets -- >> yeah. it will be -- >> sorry, continue

>> i guess it will really depend on how the bond market responds. if it sees the good economic news they don't like because we have an overheating economy or the drum tight labor market then if this market is going to be following the risk free rate then that's what we'll have to watch. >> i think high wages or the unemployment rate falling or maybe even 37 i think that's going to be a big problem for the ten year and that will be a problem for stock market late in the business cycle we get that between good economic news and what happens to stocks. >> okay. what would that imply for other central banks if we continue to get better than expected good news here and rates moving higher does it put pressure on the likes to follow or does it make it harder for them to do so >> i think their interest rate

sector is much lower they are not growing as fast labor markets are nowhere near as tight they have more room. but don't forget if we keep on raising short rates i think it does mean strong dollar and a strong dollar is a challenge for stocks also. it is an additional tightening along with the ten year rate >> stocks sold off in parts surrounding china. we are down close to 2%. we'll discuss whether next month's midterm elections will be a catalyst. first, find out whether reports that china is using technology could escalate the trade dispute between the two nations.

>> welcome back.

spy chips have been found in hardware used by over 30 companies including apple and amazon it was installed by super micro and could have enabled china to trade secrets from american company. they have all denied the initial report relaces between the u.s. and china have already been strained with an ongoing trade war. how this could report is michael. gentlemen, thank you for joining us let's kind of get started with that very big question it du does not seem like something that moves trade negotiations forward in a very positive light. >> that's right. i think the vice president's speech was particularly notable.

so this is showing that is u.s. is committed to a confrontational approach i think in terms of trade negotiations if you're a policymaker you're thinking anything i put on the table at this point is probably not going to be enough this is a broad bush back against china. this is to contain dmien not to strike narrow trade deal it is another reason to think it is quite unlikely any time soon. to is recent deals did they increase the pressure on china or did they make the prospect of a deal more likely >>. >> once you stort soft clear the deck negotiations i think the

hacking story today is a perfect example of why the united states needs to build a big coalition this is really is focus they should be focusing on. it is china is the big question mark, elephant in the room >> does the united states even want to negotiation? it does not work with the way that china policymakers like to do negotiations. we are not moving any closer to the way they want to talk this through. >> well, i think that's right. i think once you see some of the fallout from the tariffs and some of the pain being inflicted from the trump administration's

tariffs i think they will be making a more concerted effort to deescalate the situation at the negotiating table rather than going back and forth on tariffs. >> you said that this all gives the impression to china that it is more of a comprehensive containment policy do you think it is taking shape? >> it is one of big questions right now. really where the question lies is with the president. we are gearing up far broad bush back in foreign policy and economic diplomacy you have to wond fer he is committed to this as well. i wonder if we are in for a c confrontational relationship

>> okay. thanks for joining us. we have an earnings alert. it is costc onchts. >> they are in line $2.36. revenues a slightly beat the stock is down and it is because of a statement saying there were a material weakness and internal controls as it relate tod related to users it may be the reason we are seeing the stock down over 3% despite the in line earnings report it will be something we'll have to watch back to you guys >> thanks very much for that what's your take on this >> yeah. i think eric is probably right i think it's important and i --

>> it seems as if it is a some what driven thing that says you have to come dpor ward and say we detected some, you know, insufficiencies. it's in the necessarily saying anything has been wrong with the financial reports. >> the numbers. >> >> the spike in treasury yields a red flag and the broader market, we'll see if it is we'll look at whether rising rates are creating a dark cloud over the housing markets we'll discuss that cinomg up later on the show. don't go any where big, bold promises like... it'll find life on mars! but here's the thing. you don't live on mars. (beep) you build wind turbines. supply car parts to thousands of cities.

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>> welcome back. we were off the lows of the day. the dow closed down 200 points the low for the dow is 356 points the dow and s&p closing down less than 1% nasdaq closing down less than 2% tech was the worst performing sector we have the details back at hq on elon musk. >> yes a tweet coming out right now referring to the sec as the

short seller enrichment commission they say the name clang is so on point. no surprise the stock down about 3% after hours the sec declined to comment to cnbc no word yet back from tesla about whether it is truly his tweet or if he was hacked. for now it is on his twitter account. >> one of the reasons the stock might be down this settlement needs to be approved bay judge if judge asked both parties to justify why it is a settlement he just entered into so right now it isn't enforced they say it will maybe reflect on bl it goes through.

i guess it means the tweets aren't being voted what about the medium to long term they say this whole issue made him realize he would act more appropriate going forward? >> so will he truly in the spirit of this settlement back away and no longer be chairman and also kind of seed a little bit of authority to the two new independent directors? that's a huge question >> yeah. he made that point about how an e-mail was sent out and tesla followed up by filing a case it seemed like there was a step forward. >> yes >> i guess it was supposed to be a vote >> and to be fair it's kind of witty. >> yes >> it sounds like this has not been vetted yes. i would love to see what --

>> yeah right. >>. >> the key point that the stock was down. >> we have it for us here is what's happening at this hour a developing story, about 3,000 demonstrators to protest it is at the nation's highest court. they include a loud contention from main to vote against kavanaugh. >> i have planned number one take back the senate of. >> take back the house >> number three, turn the power to the people where it belongs >> that of course senator

elizabeth warren democratic senator considered by some as a swing vote in the nomination saying that she will vote against kavanaugh she is up for reelection in north dakota which is a state where president trump won by nearly 40 points in 2016 and former rap mogul has been sentenced to 28 years in prison for killing a man in california knight listening to impactful testimony of the victim's relatives. back to you. >> thanks very much. the ten year treasure yield has hit a seven year high today. mike looks at whether that will have an impact on corporate debt >> yes this is an impact of the bbb effective yield. this is a broks si fproxy what e to pay right now

right here this peak is february of 2016. so this was at the tail end of that when oil was crashing we had a stock market and you had the effective yield being up around 4.5%. rates went down from there credit spreads became compressed and here we are. it is right back to the 4.5 level. right here it was about 1.7% the spread between treasuries very wide. it shows a lot of risk eversion. spread is very tight the credit markets are firm and sturdy far company the costs are going up nonetheless that's why it has a squeeze on corporate cash flows even when it's not about investors panicking. >> a reason to justify why they remain tighter than they did in 2016 earnings have been so small. >> that's a factor if that started to slip away we could see quite a big gap.

>> earnings are very strong and really sales so nominal gdp growth is 7% even so therefore companies had the ability to earn more in sales and cover the debt that is why some people worry about the marginal borrower. >> and certainly we are higher than we were are we at the point of panic and real concern >> no. if this went back 15 years you would see yields way way higher. it is still very very low cost of debt for a mid-grade credit in the corporate >> so we'll get an indication of what sort of lending is like >> great stuff >> yes >> up next we'll discuss why the november midterm elections could result in a boom regardless of which party wins and we'll preview tomorrow's big september jobs reports and whether it could help rally back

or if thseing ntuee llcoins. we'll be back after this

we are 32 days away from the

midterm elections. joining us now is januaette and petter thank you for joining us janette, i have to start with you. you said if you look at the last 18 midterms the market has rallied over the next 12 months post midterms 100% regardless of the outcome. does it really matter? >> that's that great question. he's right we haven't seen the market down in the 12 months following the midterm elections since 1946 what really is elections matter more than they do for the market as a whole regardless if it is the democrats or republicans the market is going to rally because there will be more certainty heading into the next year you're going to see certain sectors are going to benefit or be hurt by the policies of which ever party takes control

so if the democrats stay in control it is the industrials because you have a lot of infrastructures. work with president trump to get it passed. on the republican side we would see things like financials and energy and consumer discretionary. you have the tax cuts that have gone into place since december and they were good for consumers as well as businesses as well as the president try to go push energy policy and financial deregulation >> could midterms really rock markets? >> i think when you look at rolling 12 month periods you'll see three-fourths of the time the market is higher anyway. is it because of midterms? there's not a lot of date to to

truly support it other than the fact that the market is up for often than it is down over longer periods of time i think the earlier point made that if you're owning the broader market and what we are tealing people is if you're owning the market and you focus on more of the things you control but i think if you look at political landscape it does play that psychological role that is part psychology and part kal c kalg lus >> do you think that there is any specific economic ageneral dpa that investors are really looking for? i wonder how high the stakes are in the next. >> the republicans have been

trying to push tax reform and there is also a potential push they would try to lower the tax rate on capital gains. you could see something like that happen which would benefit financials as well as obviously market holders i think the other thing you need to think about too is if the democrats come in there is also a possibility they could try to pull back trump's deregulatory agenda and it could hurt different sectors. >> so peter what do you think we should do here if we are going into the midterms? we have 32 days to go. knowing what happened historically but knowing it won't always repeat itself going forward how are you positioning? >> we are telling our clients we are at all time high evaluations

ultimately you have to remember in order to order the average returns. the s&p has typically seen a correction 10% and under roughly every three years and roughly a 20% correction there as we are going into the year end you'll have a lot of headlines. if there is any evidence of political gridlock that typically has been something that has been shared by markets. i think you'll look at earnings and interest rates it will play a bigger role than who is in congress >> okay. we will leave it there thank you very much. as we discussed, ten year treasure yields not seen since 2011 what will it mean for the housing market we'll discuss that coming up and the september jobs numbers, the potential market

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average rate is up 14 basis points to 4.9% that's the average for borrowers with solid down payments and solid credit scores. 5% and above for the not so pristine bo pristine borrowers it is the highest in more than seven years. it comes in conjunction with very hot home prices sales slow but prices are still rising faster than incomes and in most major markets home price are well above the last peak in 2006 what does it mean for the average home buyers? about 80 bucks more for the median priced home they are strict in how much debt you can carry versus your income friday could be an even bigger day for mortgage rates in either directions as we get the results of the all important september jobs report. back to you guys you flow, the home depot cfo

said she doesn't start to worry about the housing market until mortgage rates are around 7% so you said they are around 5% or 4.94% right now do you think she needs to begin to worry a little bit before we get to that point? >> you know, when i talk to my sources they say 5.5% is their worry point. when you talk about 7% that is considerably higher. just the changes we have seen in the last couple weeks payments could be up $200 a month it takes out expenses you might want to put into your home >> the vast majority of mortgages in the u.s. floating as opposed to fixed or lots of people over the last two or three years taking advantage to lock in a set rate for an extended period of time. >> yes the vast majority are fixed rate mof mortgage that's what most want today do for their own sanity when you look at rates now that's why we have actually a problem with supply in the housing market so many people are locked into

rates at 3.5% or lower they don't want to sell and move up to the higher mortgage rate. that's why you're seeing fewer homeowners list their homes for sale and we desperately need more supply in the housing market because there's a iona, still constrained in the housing market thanks. up next find out why chipotle got knocked off the messaging during the food illness outbreaks. "closing bell" back after this don't forget that the past can speak to the future.

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about how the restaurant handled the previous illness outbreaks and why it got knocked off messaging. >> we got knocked on our heels we have always been about food, real food, real cooking. making sure we hire great people to run great restaurants we got knocked on our heels a bit. we stop talking about the things that made it special we brought a new team together and we are back on the front foot. >> you can catch that entire interview on national tucker day as well. with the chip on that and cfo and ceo on "mad money. i hope they brought tacos to jim. >> the shares were up and 55% for the year, one month to three-month. >> in an amazing roll. never got cheap. as badly as the stock did. people still believed in the concept. and what's interesting with the new ceo, the idea any will experiment a little bit and loosen up a little what the definitions of a chipotle

product or promotion is, i think has made a difference here. >> i was looking for the qeaso. >> it doesn't look good. it is low grade. >> she is a fan of the queso. >> i love every kind of cheese i was like. >> we knew she would love it. >> i love cheese cheese in a can. i will eat that. >> anyway, make sure to tune into "mad money" coming up for that interview now coming up on "closing bell" we'll discuss the september jobs report which of course comes out tomorrow well thamit t ghdo to rates and equities coming up. cal: we saved our money and now, we get to spend it - our way.

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and put it all to work with ai. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business. welcome back to the "closing bell." let's have a check on the headlines making news after hours. kiosk o shares under pressure. despite meeting expectations but investors concerned about one specific line in the report about quote, material weakness in internal controls the stock down 2.5%. slightly off the immediate reaction but that's the line people focus on. >> i think that is the focus point. i want to point out the company said as a result they don't anticipate any financials were misstated or will be miss stated i think that's actually quite important. and we still get a lot of sales

results from costco regularly. and the retail environment over the last several year have had only five negative quarters of same store sales in ten years. and another really bang on quarter here is we are talking about sales. >> a quick note on costco in general as people look at financials is that it's not a company perceived as stretching to make the earnings number or the sales number they don't give guidance it's kind of a long-term oriented management. i don't know anyone looks at it and says the financials are suspect. >> rw baird calls it a growth staple which is rare in that group. >> on the broader staples, mike, clearly year to date they haven't been a great sector. but the last two, three months catching up. >> picking up a little bit the question is if that was a trend change or just the fact that treasuresry yields stay compressed and the market looked for the laggard secretary zbleers sure foam is the jobs number for septembers. what are you watching for wage

growth. >> i do. the leading indicators of the jobs number are pointing toward stronger than anticipated. stronger than forecasts because of the ad pieft private sector payrolls, the ism employment numbers are showing i think the market is leaning toward maybe bracing for a strong number whether on wages or the headline number which means it's hard to anticipate the market reaction because i don't think a strong number is going to shock anybody. >> right sloo. >> but a really strong wage number you have to watch yields. often yields will participate the number and then settle out after the gain. >> as you said the last couple days and last week of data does suggest as professor segal says it's about expectations the market shouldn't be surprise the. but does this change the number of fed hikes this year not. next year probably not. >> this number will not. it's confirming what the fetid has been telling us. but there is the perceived gap between what the fed has been taelg you about next year in terms of hikes and the market

expectations so maybe fed chair powell was trying to bridge that a bit and put the market on alert. >> well, it's been great to have you courtney and look forward to tomorrow when of course we will be dissecting reaction to that jobs number. but for new that does it for "closing bell. >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. pete najarian karen finerman, tim seymour. tonight on fast, fangs fall from grace. getting wrecked today but there is a name the traders say is a screaming by plus td ameritrade going crypto giving investors what they want. more bitcoin steve quirk explains why they go all in on bitcoin. but start with the rate shock. >> scarey music. >> perfect storm on wall street as rates go parabolic. stocks slammed