next few years >> a lot of inevestors have not seen a time when cash paid you some money we were talking a little bit about that it probably will continue where cash is going to be at least acceptable thanks for watching power lunch have a great weekend everybody >> closing bell starts right now. good friday afternoon. i'm wilfred frost. >> a big down day today. the dow down 325 points. we did open briefly higher the jobs number taken as a positive for the economy and initially for markets too. as we look quickly the nasdaq

once again down 1% and s&p down 0.5% the dow is just negative the nasdaq is down significantly. >> not terribly different from yesterday's action here. coming up we'll be joined exclusively by kevin rudd. his thoughts on the global markets, trade and why a wider economic war is upon us. selling out of apple we'll tell you what he is most concerned about. first, let's get more on what's driving today's sellout. we have an hour to go. hi >> a very exciting close here. take a look. we cut our losses in half. we are down 15 points. the jobs report is unlikely to change the base of federal reserves rate hike they are down 15 points.

look at this you're talking apple and boeing here both are up about 30%. apple big loser early on lead the dow to the downside now splitting the losses just about in half. it is the lessening of trade war fears. same situation the whole market stopped going down the biggest losers started moving up again. we started talking about where everybody is hiding today. let's go hide in proctor and gamble and let's go hide in coca-cola andson a johnson & jon new lows across the board. a number of names. your talking about higher rates, higher costs, higher prices. it's just three things in a row that are not companies on top of that so where are we right now? most of the people i talked to

feel rates are going up for the right reason when was the last time you head 25% earnings growth? three quarters in a row. 20% unheard of gdp we haven't seen that since 2005 the lowest unemployment numbers, consumer confidence near a record recession with a very very low probability. when you get this kind of con fluns of data points here it's no wonder it goes up and no wonder rates are rising. back to you. >> thanks very much. today keith and rick at the cme chicago. what do you make of today's actions? it first felt a little goldie locks. revigtss were very strong making the last several months stronger zbli don't think the headline has too much to do right now you'll get fewer and fewer job

creations. there could be weather related details in there that may have impacted the number for last month. the real issue for jobs report number for me was the wage growth we are continuing to take it and that's what the market reacted to today reflecting what bob was saying -- and i know this is what he is saying, it's all about rates right here right now. what we saw today is all of the major averages got oversold in our work the s&p bounced off the 50 day moving average the russell bounced off and we would expect to see that when we have conditions. >> so last point i'll make is i think equities will start to trend back a little bit. they will probably move a little sideways what will be interesting is to see what happens when the bond market is closed will it give enough to try to make gains back? >> we are now able to join

michael. rick, i will come to you next. i have been following all of your coverage on the move in rates. i'm also interested in why we haven't seen a similar reaction. flat a little bit today. not much given the rates >> i think part of that could be attributed to what's going on in the equity markets i also think a lot of it go to the notion that the dollar is for the most part in heavy demand around the globe. the problem is with the interest rate differentials, a, it could be a bit expensive and b if you want to take on that expense especially if you're a foreign investor the hedging cost can be a bit prohibitive not so much on volatility side but just on the notion that everybody is trying to accomplish the same thing and it has gone up i personally think the other issue is the euro currency

itself you can only swim so far in a circumstance lal pool. it really kind of gives us almost a false view of the dlafr in certainways i think you'll not only see it reflected in the dollar index but i think you'll get an extra move in that regard. i think it is quite stable here. the less i'm inclined to think there's any significant downside on the horizon >> michael, to come to you the other big factor has been china. update us on how you think china is handling the move in rates, trade war, etcetera.

it really doesn't matter if president trump comes to an agreement tonight. it won't change the trajectory companies are wake up to the fact that if you source all of your production in china you could lose access to your products you'll have to pay giant tariffs. they are realizing the notion of china is fundamentally flawed. they are looking to die verts fi out of china that will depress investment spending far long period of time and be a big head wind of

chinese growth >> do you think any part of that is the reason we are seeing thi that's lot of small home builders and companies that feed

into the system that if you start to take up inflation they will start to get hurt ton bottom line. >> it is one of the few sectors higher would you be buying them >> yeah. i think the steepening yield curve is a very very good sign for bank i also think if you pull back the lens and look at all of the financials they all benefit from the bond market. the other thing i think will help going forward they get hurt when you have a big crisis like hurricane florence but it

includes pricing power and it's also really really good going forward. it also includes demand in the banking sector >> okay. we'll leave you there. thank you all very much. have a wonderful weekend let's take a deeper dive we are in washington hi >> it was a disappointing september. 134,000 but the gust of this support looked pretty good 3.7% for the unemployment rate is the lowest level since 1969 there were also revisions for july and august. july was up and august jumped from 201 to 270,000 jobs that's a total of more than 87,000 jobs than were previously reported the three month average is 190,000 jobs for the month before they try to anticipate revisions. it could help explain the headline and payroll number. hurricane florence might have distorted the data they say the responses to the surveys they do to calculate, they were in the range of normal but they did call out the as

particularly robust. we have been running it around this level we are running it an economy that on average it has been stronger than it has been this year that's a function of the tax cut. that's waning off. as we go into 2019 it will come settling back. >> what are some of the downsides when you're at full employment there has to be some at a skills gap that are potentially lower in retail stores you just kind of do what you have. >> the biggest thing is that they are 6 points which is a massive skills gap over 90% of companies based on

the study we do found they are looking to hire people without a four year college degree we have to be expanding the talent pool because we can't just count on colleges to provide companies with the right talent at the right time it is something by not having this talent. >> is there a problem out there for companies to find the right type of work at the moment >> i think companies have been looking for the ideal worker they want everybody to be compatible they haven't wanted to train or cultivate and build a bench. i think they are beginning to see the downside of that we are 9 plus years into this expansion. you also have to remember there's a huge huge outside pul pool of workers. i think the real problem here is health care. it's not just wages. it's health care that's the defining decision between whether or not some people take

jobs or don't take jobs. until they come around to dealing with health care it will be a very very tough play. >> all things considered the wage number we are looking at do you think is not the right number in terms of how much extra companiesare having to pay? >> i think they are avoiding paying the health care that's keeping them from getting the right workers. if you have a little bit of of a gain in wages which is 2.8% year over year. you a rise in real wages sale taxes with going up real estate taxes are going up income taxes are going up at state levels debt servicing cost are going up so really the way to get workers in is to change the health care dynamics that's something nobody wants to do >> they said some are actually waiting things like road testing

requirements i'm not trying to pass any judgments but just that idea, does it look like they are getting a little desperate >> it is not a good decision long term. you hire the wrong person and if they get caught doing drugs again it could cost the company up to $100,000 to replace. retention is really important just as it is to recruit the right people at the right time artificial intelligence is changing the game. a lot of companies would rather invest in machines than retrain their current people >> where are all of the robots maybe they can fill some of these jobs >> do you change the rate height expectation? >> no. i think there's one more possible i actually believe that the economy is already at a restrictive rate i think it is overstating where they are going to have to go

i think what you're looking at in terms of what's happening and what will happen and what's happening with equity and the fiscal policy will roll off then i think you're looking at where the feds will wind up doing less next year. >> we have to leave it here. thank you for joining us appreciate it. coming up on the closing bell, we'll be joined by former australian prime minister. we'll get his thoughts on trade. why the wider economic war is upon us. he'll join us in a cnbc exclusive. selling out of apple in full we'll tell you why he has dropped the stock. that's coming up next.

>> rest leasing a letter disclosing they sold remaining apple shares a less intiesing evaluation and trade saying we are some what worried about chinese retaliation. am shares are down

it's ban rough several day -- been a rough several days for apple. joining us now is edward snyder from charter equity research gene, what do you make of giving up three examples saying look, what we had in 2011 a little less than telling. >> i think it has made a lot of money, close to a billion dollars on this seven year trade here i don't think that the substance of what he said is around the china i think what's most important here is symbolish of whc is whaa

shift. it was david in playing the iphone product cycle were moving to a new era which is apple as a service and investors understand that this is coming and are grappling. i think it's at the substance of what he is doing he made some money >> so i guess that's exactly his point. he is saying he always believed apple is a luxury good company that could defend its brand through a mixture of hardware and software everyone now realizes that that's the sort of easy money that's been made he actually goes onto talk more broadly about tech evaluation. are you concerned it is not such a consensus-type play at the moment >> i would agree with that i think it is extended right now.

i think am is a littpple is a lo a different area now the hardware is operating like a software business like a services type of high visibility business over the last eight quarters it has been 1%. it has been very tight range around that 1% it is symbolic of a software type visibility. i am not concerned about apple i think there's substantial upside i think as more investors understand this is different than i was for the past eight years it will be positive. >> and i understand you don't own any apple shares but if you're someone in the same position as you he points out he did pretty well. it wasn't so great you follow his idea at this point.

are you going to walk away from apple? are you going to say maybe it is an attractive point to get in. >> a trade perhaps but as a long-term investment he has a lot of merit in what he is saying the services are pulled through. look at the profit it all comes from iphone yeah the future is a service play i it doesn't work out very well. the unit volume sales, the flag ship product and pulls through all of that services has been flat for years they have the same problem and ideas have done in the past. so far i have not heard them articulate a strategy on how to

avoid the same thing that happened to those companies unless you someone like jobs innovating something new that someone has seen before you'll probably get stuck in the same cycle. >> what about the china issue whether they are talking about supply chain or sales. is china going to weigh on this as the sort of trade battle continues? >> well, there's a shift going on in the hands of business at this point you see it three years in apple and you have seen it the last three or four years the chinese are now starting to move up to that. they declared they would be the worst country in the world to deploy a fully functional system to get there they will have to start mimicking more of the high end phone architectures and they are. in the last six to nine months they have exhilarated that

the competitive dynamic of that will start to bear on the high end. if you look at the business that is apple's core business you will see that the chinese are starting to ascend they have the downside of the academic war and economy is weakening. it remains to be seen how this plays out. >> thank you very much for discussing this. we are going leave it there. still to come, we'll take a look at how the market faired last time. we had a strong job maetrk >> and later we'll discuss whether we are into a new market and how it might impact investors. don't go any where

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welcome back to the closing bell sue herrera is here now. >> here is what's happening at this hour. homes ago a jury convicted jason van dyke of second-degree murder in the fatal shooting of mcdonald in 2014 the shooting was unnecessary and unreasonable it carries the sentence of less than 20 years. has been charged with five federal felony counts targeting president trump and james mattis

and christopher ray and a high ranking naval admiral. he was arrested at his home on wednesday. the situation whose abs became infamous on jersey shore was sentenced for tax fraud today. his brother received a two year sentence on the same charge. and the mormon tabernacle trial has been renamed to drop the name mormon showing the church is serious about ending shorthand names for faith. it will be called the tabernacle choir at temple square back down to you guys. >> thanks very much. >> yeah. the u.s. trade deficit increasing to $53.2 billion a

very good afternoon to you >> good to be with you >> let's talk about the battle with china it is encouraging. vice president really upping the anti-china rhetoric. is china in a different situation? is there any prospects of tensions easing? >> strategy as i see it is all of these other guys that you thought you had a common alliance with on trade against the united states, we dealt with each of them

number one we can't actually begin to cut a deal because who knows what will immerge after midterms >> the vice president's speech yesterday is a massive hot shot across and it's a broadside. therefore the chinese political establishment is in the moment as to whether the united states wants to at all. >> do you think china is in fact losing the trade war >> i spent two or three visits in china during the summer didn't go to beijing went to cities where a bunch of big firms are. it included a slower price of economic reform and crowds out

of some of the market space against pry separaspry private s the question really is what will china's actions now be not just against the measures now further by the yuts bunited states but n response to the statement by vice president trump yesterday >> do you -- is he getting hit by this domestic at all? we refer to him as all powerful and the recent change in the constitution is it a possibility he could get toppled? >> it is not complete in china

[ laught [ laughter ] >> slack over the relationship of the united states i think chinese government in the first quarter under estimated the resolve of the trump administration to act in the way in which it is done. my bottom line guess is particularly after president trump yesterday which is an attack -- vice president pence yesterday which is on multiple levels is that there are two strategies for china beginning to negotiate or double down in a nationalist response i'm beginning to see much more on the latter rather than the former there may be a domestic critique it's not difficult to begin to wave the national flag when you sense you're under external affair >> it is all about globalization. we are starting to see

protectionist policies if there are other countries that have trading relationships are you going to be forced to pick a side? >> the resolve for 25 years is never have security partners of the united states has been that way for 100 years. countries like australia are enough to reconcile these two worlds the pressure is starting to come on some. >> i want to switch to the topic of brexit. how is it viewed in australia? i ask it whose commonwealth, do australians welcome or do they look at it as that's a crazy thing to be doing?

>> we have our own in australia. i'm sure they love the idea. we can reconstitute about the way things used to be. i think most of modern australia scratches their head and says what are you folks doing there's kind of a reason for it as well. australia wants britain to succeed. we do not see your exit from europe as an ingredient in your long-term success or survival of institutions like the city a bunch of australians stacks of them all over the place. one of the reasons they go there is they like it but you

uncollege cloeg that so the reason the old empires out there i think is tactical. >> a very clear perspective there. i like that you said autotrail yans to be powerful. >> that's religion that's quite different >> yes >> thank you so much >> thank you we have got 24 minutes left of trade we are well off the lows of the day. the low of the session is down 326 points right across the street from me. why they are some pairing tesla to lehman brothers what if we could turn trash into money? plastic bank is doing just that, by exchanging plastic for digital credits

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>> a little more than 20 minutes to go before the closing bell. the dow is low this session with 325. at one point we were positive. s&p is down by about .6% up next engulfed with higher

interest rates and fears over employment are we looking for a repeat of thatisry hto that's coming up next. >> a premakt spike following a leaked memo. that's coming up on the closing bell in a couple of minutes. ♪ all night long... is that lionel richie? let's reopen the market. mr. richie, would you ring the 24/5 bell? sure can, jim. ♪ trade 24/5, with td ameritrade. ♪

rising rates we have seen this before the markets did not react well, we have the story and the data what happened then and is it going to happen again? >> i wish i could detell you ift would happen again we can tell you it happened just this year. remember on february 2nd it was a shot jobs number it feels similar to what's happening right now. it is what come call a correction down 10% as we take a look at some of the other ways we can look at those moves and contexts some of the sectors during that time span, take a look at these. the energy financials were real

underperformers. we have rising oil prices and these rising rates are positive for financials as opposed to the outperforming sectors all were -- it was one of the best between february 2nd and february 8th now, let's cool dune little bit more i want do you follow me to the wall as we take a look at some of the stocks that were the under performers du performers during that time there were names that we know. prices were falling. it is down 15% a familiar name in technology off 15%. advance micro devices. it fell back then as well down 15%. chipotle down 15%. as far couple of the names that have been some what outperforming during that span during february 1st and the 8th

those were the best performers then a look back in time might provide us with a little bit of guidance if things play out similar to what happened back in early february if i knew the future i would be rich those are some of the stocks that were in play at the time. >> so outstanding use of all of the toys and technology. >> yeah. >> and the other point which we talked about with mike yesterday, volatility and corporate debt, they are not pointing to desperate times. >> no. they are not there is a little bit of weakness as well generally speaking we haven't seen a blowout that would be indicative of somebody that would be more problematic. if we start to see those things it could be another brick in the wall of worry so to speak.

for now yes, markets are down. they did fall pretty sharply back then. look where we are now. we'll see if it remains that way with the market is the way it is structured right now >> if you manage to bring it out it would have rounded off. >> yeah. >> and over here with the spreads the next time. we have 14 minutes left of trade. >> 14. >> i said 14 but i realize it wasn't that clear. >> i did do the math correctly i just didn't do the talking very well we are down 0.6% we are well off session lows we have a leg up the s&p now down less than half a percent. and facebook turning instagram into the spy ware. we'll tell you what developments

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bringing the company to profit nlt in 2019. we will also that the company rushed to the redesign writing in our excitement to bring many products into the world we have lost the corp. of what made sna communicate. >> ed lee is from the new york times. thanks for joining us. >> is iz feasible it could be back here? >> they have only seen losses since they went public and before that. maybe 750 million and this year. so i think it will be a really tough shot he is ceo. he can decide what he wants to do with it it is certainly going up as well there is some possibility. the main thing is they really

have to turn around the user base they actually lost daily active user count the last quarter from the previous quarter so it's been a really rough road for them the redesign is the reason for that >> isn't it is redesign ed but also the emergence of those store i haves. and you don't even really need snap chat anymore do you >> it is interesting between this rivalry, for a while snap chat had the cool bells and whistles people were screen shotting the filters and moving over to instagram because they had more friends on instagram once instagram started putting in their own filters it wasn't a reason to go to snap chat. i think the fact that instagram has the network effect or

built-in sort of friendship or your network is what's allowing them to see. snap chat they had to better sort of pull their innovations i think if they can't turn that around the numbers will continue to go south. >> and thanks so much for joining us i'm afraid we have breaking news out of washington on kavanaugh susan collins is a yes on brett kavanaugh's nomination that means republicans have the vote within their own party to support his nomination and place him on that bench. susan collins just wrapping up a speech on the floor where she defended kavanaugh's record and temperament as well and said she believes he deserves due process and presumption of innocence even though that battle has exposed deep divisions within

america and the profit that hit rock bottom. collins voted far to advance the nomination earlier in the day. he said he was very optimistic as they came out of that together now she is putting her full support behind kavanaugh for the supreme court. a final vote on the confirmation is expected to happen some time saturday night perhaps into sunday morning the question now is whether any democrat of west virginia will break rank with his own party to also support judge kavanaugh's nomination we will be watching and we will keep you posted as well. back over to you >> a crucial take away from this, the republicans should make it to 50 on their own >> that's right. there is only now one republican senator of alaska who they said

she opposes brett kavanaugh's. susan collins was the crucial vote here. collins is offering her support to judge kavanaugh it means he has enough streets have republicans only. >> thanks. we are live in washington. we have six minutes left in trade. a little butt of recovery. we are still low with red across the screen we'll be back with the close in five or six minutes time after the bell sing aythat the company could go the way of lehman brothers. we'll discuss that coming up on we'll discuss that coming up on the closing bell yep...you're on the hook for the rest. that's why it's important to consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.

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but you'd like them better if you made more money than they do. don't get mad at your well-liked neighbors. get e*trade. welcome back to the closing bell the dow is down 172 points as we start. i want to start with the weak picture. first the ten year treasury note so we had -- it happened earlier in the week. we crossed 3.2% taken to the highest level. it has weighed on equity markets. it is only down about half a percent today but for the week as a whole it is down 1% you can see the last couple of days in particular we have sold off as the rates have risen.

what about the picture today itself it has been the scene. the nasdaq is down 4%. str the dow for example was down 326. as for the sector performer today only a couple of sectors holding onto positive territory. only one holding on and it is utilities up 1.6%. everything else is in the red. >> it's very simple. the jobs report is unlikely to change the pace of federal rate hikes. i think it was down the line in the middle it's a lot it's a sudden move up.

it is given the combination we are seeing here. record earnings and 50 year lows in unemployment. remote possibility in the six to eight months i think the market could handle higher rates they are not that concerned. notice we cut it in half >> yeah. >> we did yesterday. let's have a look at the performance for the week as a whole. only a few sectors interestingly given such a rate during the week. testimonies are both yhigher >> focused on the financials it is probably 7 or 8 basis points. it is between the two and ten years. finally, remember we were talking three months ago about inverted-year-old curve. now the yield curve is

steepening we have a different set of problems >> also worth pointing out the nasdaq is down we have hong kong 4.5. china closed all week. there goes the bell. we are down 185 points on the dow. the low is well over 300 that does it for the first hour of closing bell. back to you. >> thank you very much welcome back to the closing bell wilfred will join me back here in a moment. the nasdaq and s&p did end low s&p down by a little more than

.5%. the russell 2000 down about 1% as well. tesla shares falling further after compared the company to lehman brothers. we'll debate whether tesla could face a sloimilar collapse. joining us to discuss it all chief investment officer and chief investment strategist here we can start with the biggest winner on the dout the biggest loser, ge, the biggest winner are you making anything over the last two days. maybe it's for the right

reasons. we have a strong economy unemployment could not be tighter. we need it we are getting top heavy >> i think it is nothing to panic over so we had a big run. strang data. >> the backbone that we are no fonger near the recession. it doesn't mean. >> at one looks very -- on other days you can see them recover kig nif cantly straight.

>> i think it says there's a rotation on the small stocks our we put out a note the other day saying we would take small trading. >> let's beg. >> yeah. we are seeing today that it was technology that had some of the bigst downdraft and provided a lot of weakness. the russell 2000 down well over

3.5% for the week. tech is off for the week when you take a look at the biggest news rooms today tesla, what's interesting is for the week tesla is down about 1%. that th is a stock that had a 17% surge on monday after the sec settlement housings have changed. costco's earnings were disappointed am a loser today not the worst performer in terms of those momentum names. it amazon down four days in a row. had one of the worst weeks sinc february retailers face higher prices, greater competitions

one of them, stitch fix talking about the subscription model being much more urnnder pressur. stock the falling after having a big momentum finally a couple jocks back to you. >> all right thank you very much. >> and it is down 3% year to date up 15.5%. it is double is it going to narrow that the other two will continue to play catch up like they did this week >> that's a great question.

texas had a huge run not just this year but last year. some of the stocks are expensive. you have the worst over china. finally the regulatory i think if we see congress going on the campaign trail regulation, china, these are great political stories. that rhetoric stays there. what do you think? i know you're here in the long run do you think we have a number of years left when it comes to tech and leadership it has taken pulled back recently are you a buyer in

tech or do you think that is over >> i would point out that the russell 2000 from late january to early february was up like 23% in september it has been one of the leading groups out there i think with this weakness as they row tatate it out, i think puts it back at the google of the world again >> we are some what worried about trade policy

you brought it up as a note of concern for all of tech. apple specifically is a concern for you. >> i let them look at the specific company but i do think it is reasonable to have a concern we go from what we are seeing as tariffs right now to a cold war making it harder for companies to do direct investments and america. the tariffs, now we are seeing possibilities of china saying let's buy national champions you are starting to see more economic and qualitative steps that could hurt the u.s. i think going after some of the supply chains is another step that could be taken. being cautious right now is very reasonable again, longer terms structurally i think there's a lot to like. >> do you think apple has more

to lose from china than perhaps some of the other big names and is now a time to be taking profit in those with exposure to china or do you think you use the current headlines as a buying opportunity >> i think that the trade war with china is going to get settled probably not before the midterm elections. china is in a hard place here. markets are down now they can't pay the interest on those loans i think that t trade tariff is going to go away probably in the first quarter of next year i'm not sure if we are not in it yet but we are in some kind of

trade war. >> i also thought it was interesting even within that analysis it is very modest it is not the pure economic hit. it is the level of uncertainty to the degree we see these qualitative measures does it to prices and margins as we head in >> it is all down 4 to 5%. it is closed all week. we'll get their reaction on monday is that the way on u.s. growth in due course or do you think it's sort of a move? >> so if the pain gets large enough it can have a spillover

effect banking and trade linkages with china with europe is a lot greater. it's not surprising to me that europe is under spruzing so much >> and it is on housing stocks today and this week. kb homes down 1.5. jeff, what's your take on both the housing stocks for the consumers and mortgage shoulders. >> they have been telling us dose to 21.4 quite frankly that they are moving into the 500 to

$350,000 priegs range instead of 100 to 200 so we like housing but we are not getting back to the $1.5 million run rate. >> what are you thinking >> goo it's a much smaller piece compared to '06. they have fallen four out of the last five months in august we are down again, another 1.8% year on year. so you are seeing leading indicators it is not falling out of bed we are not falling apart you're starting to see the signs that things are slowing down it doesn't mean a recession is eminent. it means we are closer to that end point. you want to be a little cautious >> what about the possible

beneficiaries? people have already kind of priced that in >> i think one of the true value plays out is in the financial complex. i think we have to pick and choose which companies and kp issues you'll buy. i do like the financials you're cheap they tell me good things happen to cheap stocks. >> good things come from cheap stock. >> yes >> and i was going to say i want to go back to tampa and saint pete i don't want you to get too bullish on housing down there. i have to bait and get my retirement home some time soon at one hand a steeper curve to go to the bangs. i think we are seeing this in

parts of what's going on with china. we are not getting over right now in financials. >> what about the loan growth? do you an the more the trade war gets bigger i think it is slowing down what cube good story. >> okay. thank you. coming up what interest rates will keep spiking higher and tesla tumbling after the company's problems lehman brothers brothers we'll have more straight ahead

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welcome back to the closing bell comparing it to bankrupt lehman brothers and saying deception is about to catch up with them.

he writes short sellers refuse to pull backstock. >> joining us is short tesla who is tesla shareholder great to have you with us. let me start with you. i guess you agree with this take from david >> let's look at what tesla suppliers are saying specifically i'm talking about the credit and swap market it's showing an 18% chance that

tesla goes bankrupt in 2 years compare it to ford and general motors compare it to 1.3 billion of tesla cash not customer deposits which is frk than general motors was before it declared bankruptcy. >> i can imagine you probably feel differently i know you are along tesla shares why do you think it is very very different from lehman brothers >> first of all he has the most poor results of any manager of money over the last five years she a lot more like lehman brothers than anybody else we started a fund where we do exactly opposite of what he

does it works amazingly it is up 25% on the year if jv p-- they have about to -- >> i think it is already different. >> those are very different business models. >> it's not about business models the fact that these companies have been struggling for so long and manage to stay in business is a miracle so a vibrant fast growing growth story that has one of the most amazing products ever created doubling revenue, how many companies are like that? >> well, he writes out 26% >> the temperature was the second biggest >> what do you make of the

developments this week it seemed like he had got a relative task and he is doubling down fighting back in a way that seems very shortsighted and arrogant >> i think it's an accurate statement. he is having yet steve jobs reality disconnect problem right now where he thinks she a b-- ha big tough guy. it is a really bad game in general. so i'm not very happy with that. i made it known to the company and to him directly i can't explain it i think there's a little bit of it like things are going so well i think it's a mistake

>> it is the strongest because of what's going on with capital? >> tesla needs at least $5 billion in my view right now to have any chance of surviving. the reality is wall street banks have paid tens over the last decade or so there's no way they would raise money into financial projections as well as doj and other things. the simplest is the most likely to be correct. that is that things are much worse than the stock price indicates. i'm not talking about marijuana. >> first of all taking ambien.

we have sources inside the company. the company has never been doing better everybody is really pumped at the company right now. they achieved incredible success. they made more than any company in history has ever made in a year really it's not a huge demoralizer but it is starting to effect people because things are going so well so we think the risk has gone up we have taken note of it we are not changing our position in tesla >> so it can go to $4,000 per share. what's realistic to you? >> our numbers are they do 24 to

25 billion over the next 12 months we had four times revenue multiple to it of course so much on the perception of tesla too. that's where elon needs to get his ducks in a row and start playing the game a little bit better >> i guess your price target is zero >> i would remind people that all it would take is a couple of hundreds of suppliers to decide they would like to get paid cash on delivery. you can have the company go into a quick bankruptcy >> love them

>> as always a great debate. we thank you both for coming on and listening to each other total opposite sue >> thank you >> very different. very different rising interest rates today. coming up we'll discuss whether investors should be worried about a bond market forming in the fallout that it could have >> and how the shortage is impacting the airlines industry. we we are back there a couple of minutes. your company is constantly evolving.

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unemployment rate falling to 1969 last month. some can't find workers fast enough we are in queens with a look at where job demand is really shaking off. i had to do it >> i don't mind it the industry set to meet some 750,000 aviation maintenance over the next two decades like these two here who have been fixing it for the better part of today. it is facing a gender and field gap along with an ageing worse force. they are calling is up for the challenge. she is currently with jet blue here in queens mostly working overnight shifts fixing and maintaining their plans. >> i love aviation i love this field. it is mainly hands on. i don't see myself working in an

office setting so i mainly love the hands on aspect of it >> finds teches to work in the field could be a challenge it is why they are partnering with training schools around the country like aviation in queens. they are graduates of the school even decades into it it is exciting and challenging >> the toughest part, it's not always the same routine every day. tom time -- some times we have to figure it out and we figure it out >> they can pay around $70,000 a year and what's important to note is you don't need a four year college degree to even go up from there. back over to you >> i found it interesting that they are training diana because a lot of criticisms is there is

not enough training when there is a skills gap that exists. you said that she's going it overnight. is that normal for this job? >> that's one of the big challenges is finding young people to want to work that overnight shift. it is not someone that want to work a traditional 9:00 to 5:00. some of the students from aviation high school go to college during the day and put the licenses they get from that school to work at night doing a third shift and an overnight shift. it is certain lly a challenge bt there are certainly people willing to do it >> 70k is the starting salary? >> yes you make around $25 an hour and some times higher than that. if you have been doing that you can certainly make six figures and more

>> they deserve it >> thank you very much the retail industry could be facing its own hiring hurdles. >> yes key time to hire they are looking for thousands and thousands of folks there will be enough holiday workers but probably not going to be as easy as it was in years past to find them. they are expecting they will hire up to 650,000 workers the low end is above last year we know that the sales forecast are projects better sales than we saw last year they will really need them the work force is made up of students or recent graduates and retired workers looking for extra income a chief economist says implorable looks or younger or less experienced and maybe even more minority candidates and chief economist estimates there

are 16 million americans in the big economy. retailers could happen to them or the group that's considered under employed but retailers are going to be recruiting pretty much from the same labor pool as hospitality. it is to be competitive. kohl's started holiday hiring in june j.c. penne offering dlauings for if $5,000 gift packages. it is a bump up from 2017. and macy's seasonal workers eligible for bonuses the bonuses as well as moe men tum is w-- momentum says she confide confident it will find the work rs they need amazon is looking for 20,000 less and target looking for

20,000 more. >> so is that hiding something underneath that they are going to hire less people or cut work force compared to the others >> it is down and potentially that's why they don't need as many almost any retailer will hang onto some of the seasonal workers. they become more than a seasonal worker $15 an hour is definitely competitive. i think they probably needed to do it for some time. this labor market is getting tighter and tighter. >> yes >> time now for cnbc news update sue has that for us. here is what's happening at this hour. speaking for almost an hour on the senate floor susan collins says she will vote for kavanaugh to the supreme court >> brett kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the

supreme court so that we have far fewer decision and so that public confidence in our judiciary and our highest courts is resourced >> owe mansion telling reporters that he will also vote to confirm brett kavanaugh. he was heckled by protesters as he spoke during a tour of animal rescue center in kenya melania trump was almost knocked over bay baby elephant. >> don't get too close it was helping while she was helping to feed them another elephant pushed her. she was caught by people standing near her. >> a close encounter >> we love baby animals. >> they are so cute. >> she got back and stayed on her feet >> she stayed on her feet.

>> she sure did. >> do we know the name >> usually i do but i do not in this case. i'm not sure they name those elephants. it is a conservation area and they roam wild >> we should give it a name, gerald >> wally >> gerald was the big one that pushed it over >> you got it. >> have a wonderful weekend. rising rates taking a toll on stocks. up next we'll talk about how long this bond selloff could last and believe it or not wernings season kicks off next we'll tell you what to expect and whether banks can bounce back after a rough year and a pretty good week

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>> welcome back to the closing bell the stock is down 0.5 for the s&p and full percent for nasdaq. >> the bottom line here is we came well off of our lows and more importantly i think rates are raising for the right reasons. take a look. we were down 30 points and we

came back the bottom line here is it is likely to change. stock market will get a little nervous. banks were the big gainers it is about time they do something and s&p was only down 0.9% they were up on that home builders, higher costs, higher prices and a lot of new 52 week lows there the banks are the key. the ten year up and highest levels in seven years. don't get too excited and bank stocks are flat for the year

any time we have a rate hike move up like we have seen -- not a rate hike, a move up we have seen this week you'll see the stock market getting nervous i don't think they should worry that much. we don't have an ordinary economy when things are getting little bit better. 25% earnings growth. 3% gdp growth. consumer confidence and low probability of recession this is just an extraordinary and i think the question is whether the stock market can handle higher rates >> i like the ayou saway you sa, extra ordinary it is definitely broken above a multi-year base. it should over time carry us to

significantly higher yields. joining in on the discussion is john bellows what's your take in terms of whether it is the start of something much more meaningful >> it has been a volatile week i think you have to return to the fundamentals i think what's holding and what is not isn't really useful we are not aware of a long-term track record you have to focus on the fundamentals growth has been okay in the united states. it is okay to good and that was obviously true this week we had a positive jobs report this week coming after surveys that were good this week we resist we see an access ration in growth the three month average is 200,000. that's unchanged for the year. that's unchanged since last year that's unchanged since the year before that and slightly lower

than it was in 2015. we are not seeing an acceleration in growth yes it is good and enduring but not accelerating from here i think the bigger message is we are having bigger growth we are not seeing inflation. we are not seeing any ax acceleration inflation you had a number where they reiterated the view that the low inflation environment is likely to continue. they are not worried about higher wages as a consequence we don't think that the fed is going to do much different here i think that's the thing to focus on growth has been good but it's not axccelerating. federal reserve is unchanged as they look at the landscape >> is there a rate at which you would be concerned for a long time we were watching that we are getting much closer to

3.25 is it 3.5 or 4% where you start to get a little concerned? >> i would agree with the characterization that better growth has corresponded with higher yields. you know, the previous person said that was for the right reasons. i think that's largely right as we look forward growth moderates from here. inflation doesn't accelerate i wouldn't expect yields to keep going up i think we are at the top of the range. some moderation and growth and lack of acceleration will keep yields relatively low. what you worry about is you worry about tightening in monetary policy or much higher yield structure. again, they gave speeches about low inflation and about letting

the economy continue to recover you don't need to be too worried at current levels. >> you mentioned that earnings growth has been as an offset so the rising rate environment. how important is that? we'll kick off more next week including with the banks if it's a bit soft do you think the fallout could be much more pronounced >>. >> yes but i don't see that happening. it is pretty extraordinary given the past we have seen already. we will see likely 10% growth. that's where the market's head is at. it is in 2019 right now. all indications are we'll continue to see that we were worried about the yield curve inverting. remember that?

we are worried about it steepening i am much happier now than i was three months ago a recession will not materialize. >> great stuff thanks very much for joining us. >> i like how you use the right reasons. i feel like we missed an opportunity to talk about the bachelor there >> why was the bachelor? >> when you watch the bachelor you have to figure out if the women are there for the right reasons. >> yeah. >> my wife is. >> sarah is a big fan. >> see >> she gets me >> i tried it. >> it doesn't work >> thank you very much i appreciate that. thanks for being with us >> a check on the market it ended the day lower almost a peen 'lcontinue the discussion after this short break

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economic impact of brazilian election seema. >> hey, wilfred. citizens in brazil choose between 13 presidential candidates this weekend, leading the polls a far right leader a former army captain often referred to as brazil's trump because of his anti-establishment rhetoric and pop list views

he is widely favored a university of chicago trained investment banker who has said he will deploy market friendly policies helping to turn around the brazil economy, the latest poll shows him extending his lead over leftist leaders. that's triggered a rally in brazilian stocks, outperforming the emerging market index this we can check out the reeial on hopes that he had revif the brazil economy we'll see how the first round goes october 7th but will likely lead to a second right now on october 28th back to you. >> seema, thanks very much. up next we talk about the big business of the ufc with the big business of the ufc with the presiden the alerian mlp etf can diversify your equity portfolio and add potential income.

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well at this time tomorrow the biggest star of the ufc conner mcgregor will prepare to return to the october gone for a megapay-per-view even with projected purchases between two and four million the ufc mcgregor seemed destined for a big payday joining us is the man behind the deals ufc president dana white thanks for being with us today i suppose you have big hopes and dreams for what's to come saturday do you have any financial projections for what this means? >> yeah, well the trend keeps going like this. so every day, you know we trend higher and higher on pay-per-view and all of the numbers, everything whether social media, whatever it is and like you said, we're between 2.3 and 3 million pay-per-views buys on the fight.

>> what's the view on conner mcgregor's decision to leave the sport a couple of years take on a couple of big boxing fights and come back? has it hurt the sport and hurt him. >> obviously not at all. the ufc is doing just fine and he is doing just fine. he is back now and hotter than ever and he only took one boxing match pch he fought floyd may weather a year ago he made $100 million whoa you make that kind of money, he -- i'm sure you o he went upon a couple of trips and had a good time. >> dana, you know, hbo of course ending their relationship with boxing saying it's not unique. when we first tarted it was. i want not anymore is this something the ufc is at all worried about, that there is wasn'ting interest in this being a unique spectacle it's a different format but in the general vein. >> i love that hbo is getting out of it. i'm looking to get into it

hbo was one of the biggest and most powerful people in the sport of boxing. they're not getting out of boxing because there is no money. they are getting out of boxes because they are completely changing their model and how they're showing content. so i get what they are doing i get why they are doing it. and i'm glad they're doing it. >> wme had paid a significant figure, $4 billion for ufc in the past there is rumors they might go public what would your view be towards of the ipo of the property >> you know, obviously this business is very cool. fun to be in and you know, i think it will do well with investors. there is fans for the ufc all over the world people love this sport and love this brand i think it would do well. >> in terms of the deal you announced today, a deal with australian public and hotel chain alh group, to make them the official home of ufc in australia. is potential deal similar to that possible in the united

states >> i think it is i think we could do that in many countries around the world you know, australia is a massive market for us. and i could see this happening anywhere >> and just to round things off for us, the fight it this weekend, is it the single biggest in ufc history and any predictions you can give us >> yeah, it's the single biggest in ufc history and one of the biggest in combat sports history. the any sport. the biggest pay-per-view was dela jolla may weather, not many fights not many that have gotten that many. this is one of the biggest ever. >> i have to admit, i actually watched that crossover fight with mcgregor and may weather. is there more of the those to come. >> thank you and probably not >> oh, shoot one time chance. i'm glad i saw it then >> dana thanks for joining us. dana white, president of the ufc. now it's been a wild week on

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minutes. you thought this week was busy let's look at key releases we are watching next we can monday the bond market is closed for

columbus day although the stock market will still be open. let's see what happens to the action then. and tuesday brings the nfib small business index wednesday brings us wholesale inventories and reading on inflation with the producer price index. thursday we get earnings from wahl green's and delta airlines and weekly jobless claims and the consumer price index. and friday a barrage of bank earnings jp morgan, citigroup and economic data on import prices and consumer sentiment. and court, on the banks, the prior two quarters they came in with incredibly tough expectations and pretty good share price performance. this is slightly easier for the group because any haven't performed well of late half in the last we can. but i think there is a lot of stock differentation as well there might be divergent based on her individual quarters but the valuations coming in are easier. >> any other themes to watch

across the space while they're different businesses >> mid-market lend something what everyone is focused on expected to be soft. and trading despite the market highs slightly disappointing in terms of guide zbloons real underperformance for the year but up 19.5% for the week. >> that's friday courtney thanks for being with us have a great weekend that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market market site overlooking new york city time squares. steve grasso and guy adami tonight on fast. g.e. lights up the industrial giant on track for the best week in nearly a decade is the turn around here? plus, crypto goes to college they call him the warren buffett of yale and he is betting big on the crypt of universe. we'll tell what you it means we start off with the tech bloodbath. >> that's dramatic. >> a stunning 3% down this weks. the worst week since