tv Fast Money CNBC October 5, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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across the space while they're different businesses >> mid-market lend something what everyone is focused on expected to be soft. and trading despite the market highs slightly disappointing in terms of guide zbloons real underperformance for the year but up 19.5% for the week. >> that's friday courtney thanks for being with us have a great weekend that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market market site overlooking new york city time squares. steve grasso and guy adami tonight on fast. g.e. lights up the industrial giant on track for the best week in nearly a decade is the turn around here? plus, crypto goes to college they call him the warren buffett of yale and he is betting big on the crypt of universe. we'll tell what you it means we start off with the tech bloodbath. >> that's dramatic. >> a stunning 3% down this weks. the worst week since march and investors press sell on what
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has been the hottest trade of the year check out moves. amd, netflix, paypal master card getting crushed. with no end to the rate rise in sight. is there more pain ahead what does that mean for the market rally overall, guy. >> feels like -- there is going to be an end in sight. but it feels like for the short-now thepath of least resistance feels low are it's funny a couple much days ago i'm like this market can't stop it's going to continue to grind preponderates didn't matter now they do. i'll tell bhu this as well i think it has something to do with the fact that the rhetoric with the chinese escalates instead of going the other way that's part of it as well. you have the unhealthy witches brew of bad news impairs the mechanic some of the stocks are at interesting levels facebook at 155. tim thinks it's going lower. but that's level carter thinks it's going down. but at least it's something to
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trade against. amundsonen look at the move there. 2040, 1860, to 2020. back again at 1870. >> do you feel there was foot teg market today i felt like the s&p hit the 50-day footing. >> we went off those. >> triple q a hundred. iwm 200. >> i don't understand what you are saying >> support held levels >> does that make you want to buy. >> only 2% nothing is happening. >> i hear you. this is a fast forward market. a fast trading show. i do believe that there was some type of support within the market, makes me want to look at it, but buy. >> was there that kind of support for technology though. >> well, i mean, that really gets down to it. the technology has been such a driving part of overall market performance not only the weighting but the performance. and the relatively performance peaked on the fifth of june. in the fifth of october it has been underperforming as a choice other equities as measured by the s&p. that's not likely to be over quickly. it's really just early stage
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everything i can see. >> it's been clare -- this was even before we started into the nastiness of the last couple days, the value was outperforming momentum we had seen rotation at the start of the quarter but there are things you throw out of the window. first of all we waited for rates to go higher to embrace the banks and the bankshave been a major disoirmt appointment with the yield curve steepening you have to wonder how much is fear of credit we came on last night tony divider had a great call on many things, said i don't see any concern or stress in credit. i would push back on that. i would say first of all if you look at high yield we have gone down about a .1/2 the last couple days. in leverage loans and friends of mine in deep credit markets. especially those associated with there is a lot of leverage, you are seeing some stress not crazy stress but to say that this is. >> are you less bullish on the financials at this point >> not necessarily i feel more comfortable holding banks in the environment where they are value by the way and i look at defensive.
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but things like mlkds, starbucks, we have talked about those names. you also see it in some discretionary consumer names that hold up luxury holds pup energy holds up so i don't think that we are going straight down. >> the markets affect the energy space more than the -- i i know it's a different scenario than a couple of years ago. >> theoretically because they have topping era tapping the credit market. >> look at the utilities closing on high with rates up to 3.25 that's the ultimate. >> i'm glad you ask the questions because they are related. i think that utilities and energy sector are in a different place in this cycle than the last time. they are not as levered as they were in fact i talked about mlps. they look like a great yield play when yields go hire higher they have completed cap x pmt consistency in terms of cash flows stay there. >> but if we believe tim, and that is revocable trust signs strain in the credit market should we be concerned about the companies with extended balance sheets who have a lot of leverage on the balance sheets we were talking to a goldman
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sachs internet analyst today on squawk on the treed. heath terry citing netflix we see that decline is because it's seen as a levered balance sheet. there are concerns with rising rates. >> and there should be concerns. and you know, corporate debt to gdp is almost 50%. nobody talks about it. consumer debt to gdp is north of 50%. so it is clearly a concern but that's been the case for quite some time. and the market hasn't cared. for whatever reason now maybe because rates are rising quickly the market cares one other sector that seems to be not impervious but hanging in there. health care hangs in there as well that's a place you can continue to look. >> would you say right now that we are at a point where you should tilt more defensively in the portfolio? >> i feel like every time we're going to tilt defensively it's at the bottom of the cycle and i know that this is a short-term event bup it feels like health care, financials, utilities probably overdone right now. >> do you lighten up on
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technology. >> >> well, i think big multiple heavy momentum stocks i think you continue to stay light on. they haven't tradele well a long time i would go back to where we are on rates no matter what you want to say and every time feels different and it's easy to say that nothing happened every other time we haven't been at this level in rates for a long time not in four years you're at 10-year highs on the 2-year in and out. i licensed to powell this week and he sounded more hawkish than the fed meeting last week. it's strange about this because the fed under yellen and bernanke have been dovish when had the opportunity to walk the market back. powell didn't do that this woke. the fed feels like they must go. >> good for him because he shouldn't walk it back. >> they shouldn't care theoretically. >> what did you call him. >> i feel you called the bernanke. >> i'm not not a fan of him. he probably watches what is it friday night 5:00 he will go
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down as one of the great villains of the 21st century zbloopt come on. >> the powell interview. >> the guy doesn't admit the tray trade well. >> because i doesn't seem to care with what the market -- it shouldn't be about the market. >> but the 10-year spikes the way it did you said it before. the rate of increase, the rate of increase does that give him a little wiggle room. >> it's -- you know what he inherited this they should have moved five years ago. >> you talk about putting on the greatest trade bernanke left it for be else to clean up jerome powell what is exiting the trade well how is that defined? if the markets are stable? >> i think it's defined that the markets don't have a precipitous drop, that we somehow mutdle along the next couple years without any market disruption. >> most importantly leaving the fed conversation alone guy is market a market compensate tear. the. >> gone you think it's there you think it's there >> yeah i think it's there. >> i feel lake i want it to be
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there. doesn't mean that -- doesn't mean i feel it's there. >> it's in your head. >> carder, the the entire market was under pressure this week and you look at a handful offul of charts that could spell more trouble. >> trying to find levels when something goes down or up you got to fine the reference point see where you come from and what that implies where you are head i've drawn lines and let's figure it out. the this this is the 1 year chart of the s&p 500 no drawing no annotations by me process move it forward. we know the minor uptrend of the past two or three months has been broken. you can see that quite clearly here, right, we have broken that line okay let's move on. what's the next reference point? the next reference point -- and we stopped here. this is what grasso was saying today. and we held right at that line second reference point, finally, let's keep going, third reference point. where we come down to this trend
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line whether you -- this way or draw the lines another way, the tops from which we broke out put them all together, were we to simply come down to this reference point this would imply 2,800 again only down about 2.8% peak to trough that would be a 4.5% decline all in how does that stand in comparison to the declines of the past six months? well, last chart we have had a 4.5. we have had a 2.4. a 3.5. a 2.1, 1.8 were we to get down to both the tops from the broke out and the trend line it would be about a 4.5% move. what's so funny, that's nothing. yet here we are talking about my gosh so much has happened. nothing has happen this is a garden variety but the main thing i point out is this, that we are back below a highs of january that is the issue. we never really got above that
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and finally the equal weight s&p never actually did get above this level my hunch is we are not just done two days of selling. more to go. >> i'm a huge carter -- you know. >> we all are. >> does the show the friday at 5:30 "options action." >> it's weird you have to bring it up every time as if you don't believe yourself. >> every time he comes on he is better than the last time. >> is there a question for cart. >> there is. >> go ahead. >> he almost answered the question with we do in fact break the lines will technicians such as yourself say you know there is a very good chance, although not perfect we put in a double top in the s&p from the january high >> right, so let's put that in context. if you were to say where we were -- the s&p itself got above the high the equal weight did not and only three sectors of the 11 are actually above the january high new york stock exchange examines it is not the mid-cap is below that's the key issue are we basically -- it's never to the penny can you go above or below? are we basically contending with stuck at the blow off peak
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associated with record inflowsry retail customers into etfs i think so stuck at the fop. >> i'm not inviting carter back. >> what. >> we're going to have to see if he ends up back on the desk after this breck. >> spuns. >> coming up check out shares of general electric lighting up having the best week in nearly a decade so are we finally seeing the turn around shareholders have been promised? plus it's judgment day for the banks. the financials kicking up oranges next we can and there is one name the traders think could be the big looser. we tell you that and later the good news to bitcoin won't stop where is that rally np spencer goe garratt of blockchain capital says it's here we will back after this.
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lowest two weeks ago investors cheered the aamodt of larry kulp he says it's not irreparable damaged. he has had a sterling reputation at dannaher. earnings activity has been strong since the appointment some investors may see a floor in shares. now to give him wiggle room, the company did some housecleaning they nounlzed free cash flow and earnings will fall short of previous guidance due to weaker performance in the power division in the wake of acquisition of french company in 2006 still plenty of issues for the new ceo. the 12 cent quarterly dividend, 3.7% yield, sweeping up almost all of the discretionary cash can they keep it there and the pension issue, $34 billion pretax short fall at the enof 201737 mr. kulp has a big incentive. the new pay package gives him $21 in salary bonuses and stock the next four years. but if the stock is up more than 50%, he could get an additional
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$47 million. that's a payout. back to you, melissa. >> thanks, bob have a great weekend. and also you -- you bought. >> i've been long it a couple of months i averaged down on it. it was sucks wind the longest time still not -- still not above my average right now. but i think tim shared a little shock at the pay package that's where you showed shock. i was shocked at that kulp has he has -- it's around $33 before that kicks in. so i do think it trades higher "i" staying long. >> it's interesting, because, again, incenting ceo based pond a stock price can prove to be not aligning the interest of shareholders i know that sounds crazy but it could be -- we won't get into it. we've seen it before i think the most important issue for ge is about positioning. i think the things driving the stock move right now is that nobody is in the stock i think the shortage -- i talked about this looked at the positioning, the shorts are out of the name. a lot of big institutions
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lightened up that gives you at least a clear runway to react to fundamentals which aren't extraordinary but the bar is so low that agree with steve. >> is the stock out of the woods technically, carter. >> well, i mean, the first issue is when you have the long pro tracted down trend that's unending and then a gap. let's say you didn't know the news and didn't get the price axe. >> when did he get back. >> i invited myself back. >> i thought we were talking about this. >> i invite him back right now and he is here. >> anyway. >> anyway carder. >> just looking at the chart. >> rudely interrupted. and then the issue is let's say we didn't know the news and there was heavy volume gam on 300 million shares and you were sitting and didn't have a name on it. you would ask was something said did they have fda approval earnings beat? what caused the move we know what it is it's a major operator coming in to change it. does that set the low? i think it does. >> it does. >> i think it does. >> what do you think is the low zbleet what do we do at the smartered board, the more you
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know tim mentioned trade at 140 million shares that day. traded $11.5 we said three reasons why maybe a bottom np hunl volume still in viable businesses and addressed the problem. i think the stock continues to rally. but it rals into october 25th earnings you asked carter a question. are they out of the woods? remember the which had ard of oz. >> that was a scarey movie with the monkeys. >> we are out of the woods remember that whole thing. >> is that in the wizard of o zbloochlt they weren't out of the woods because they had to get the broom were the witch. >> you're saying they are going to kitchen sink it on october 25th. >> on october 25th when they try to get the witch's broom. >> if you could -- guy if you could have been one character on the wizard of oz scare crow. >> really i had you as the tinman. >> no heart. >> you interpret that any way you want. >> we will take a break on for missouri on ge cnbc.com in the meantime here is what else is coming up on fast.
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>> judgment day is inevitable. >> announcer: tvs inevitable for the banks as they get ready to kick-off earnings next week. and there is one name that traders say might fail the test plus speaking of tests, crypto has college bound. and fans are going wild. well, not really so, where is theal rly we will explain. there is much more "fast money" next
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welcome back to "fast money. you may have gotten rejected from yale. but you know who didn't? crypto that's right yale cio david swenson is investing in two crypt of currency dedicated funds earlier this week rk edelman became an adviser or bitwise td ameritrade announced vechg in the erisks but there was no rally for bitcoin. our next guest says it's the best week for crypto all year and things are getting better.
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blockchain capital partner spencer bogart joins from us san francisco. good to see. >> you thanks for having me. >> how could this have been the best week for crypto all year when we saw virtually no movement in bitcoin. >> sure i'd say it's a function of the market. look towards the end of last carrier in the peak of the bull market bad news had no affect on the markets now we see the other side of that where we have a week of amazing new was td rk edelman and yale and has no affect on price. but what's important are these are the important building blocks to leading more institutional capital into the space. >> wouldn't it have been more bullish if swenson had actually invested in cryptocurrencies themselves as opposed to funds which invest in crypto related businesses >> absolutely i definitely think that's the next step that we'll see in the take is to go direct into the markets but for now there is uncertainty about what will be the winners it makes more sense to deploy to a fund and plus for a lot of them
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they're not yet to deal with some of the service providers. some of the custodians and accountants that you would otherwise want to see with-like of an endowment. >> when you look at the price action, spencer, what makes you think the next catalyst, the next great headline is going to be a catalyst and we had three great ones this week and nothing what happened? at what point do you say maybe this trade is not working. >> sure, i think look we're down about 70% from the highs i think that bitcoin is close to bottoming and so the rest of the crypt of market. so i think it's going to take a little bit of time but each of these news items is a piece of kindle that we throw on a future crypt of bonfire when we have the next bull market. >> spencer, it's tim if you feel asleep the last six months you felt like nothing happened in the liquidity for the traded markets, but it -- how about a bonfire in the private markets? give us insight on the vc world because my guess is it's different than what we see in the bitcoin chart on a daily
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basis. >> i'd say overall, the private markets are lacking the public crypt of markets like a couple of months. when we see the public prices come down we start to see the valuations in the raze side on the private deals going down but it took a lag. that's still occurring today i'd expect for those to continue coming down over maybe the next six months or so. >> all right spencer thanks for your time we appreciate it. spencer bogart blockchain capital great to see you carter i want to go to you on this chart. >> it's almost as though it stopped trading. literally it's like flat as a board. i don't see anything particularly drexel. sometimes things are in equal lib ibrahim price. it doesn't look like any eminent weakness or strength. >> it's just there. >> buyers and sellers matched off evenly. >> i would argue that it's -- this is bullish foshag bitcoin ultimately putting in this base with the volatility we had actually seeing stability in the price. it has held this level during bad times.
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i would prefer to be half full on the glass there. >> what's that saying that. >> the longer the base the higher in space. i don't know the outer part. >> you can interpret that many ways i will not give my interpretation. >> the long base on the clarity could break out. >> i would say. >> is that the way you see this chart. >> i would process push back on the spinal tap reference by saying market doesn't give you a long time to sell the highs or in this case buy lows. we've been at this level some time leads me to believe there is another washout to the downside. >> she is talking about huge long bases over multiyears. >> not six months. >> no, but this is -- if you think about bitcoin and the trading history and the volatility in that, this is an extraordinary period i mean even the guy that is said hey we are still up year over year would point out this lack of volatility is extraordinary >> doesn't the base -- doesn't it matter in terms of examining past bases i mean, shouldn't the base be relatively to the current -- the
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asset class it's disbelieve sure then of course if you think about the precondition it's a long pro tracted -- this is an instrument coming off an epic high i mean it's not a base. >> there is not enough data there. if you pull back to a longer, longer term. >> it just blips off. >> right. >> time for the final trade. >> whoa. >> let's go around the around tim. >> tell wlau i think fastfood has been defensive because the consumers lag well wendys has been generating free cash flow like this. >> carter disney a defensive stock. >> steve grasso. >> we had a lengthy debate as far as for a saturday -- for a friday for ge. >> getting ahead of yourself. >> i did for ge i'm long it i do think this thing is coiled to move higher from here g.e. >> chris hill on the hill for red sox hasn't pitched a lot in the last couple months what do you think you get out of crystle when you say four innings one run ball would you take that. >> at least three.
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>> at least three innings bill yant you breaking down baseball like nobody. >> that's insight. >> that's kwhau get on "fast money." >> psx earnings on the 25th of october sister. >> that does it for us on fast 00e you back here monday at do not move "options action" starts right after this break. so, the whole world is talking about ai. big, bold promises like... it'll find life on mars! but here's the thing. you don't live on mars. (beep) you build wind turbines. supply car parts to thousands of cities. answer millions of customer calls a year.
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hey there live at the nasdaq market site in times square. we have a big show coming up these guys behind me getting reviewed while they are doing that here is what's coming up ♪ you're as cold as ice. >> announcer: the hottest stock of the year plunged into a bear market but if you own the name mike has a way to protect yourself. plus dsh. >> home crap home. >> that sums up the homd building seeing the worst losing streak ever. but the chart master says the charts a
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