tv Squawk Alley CNBC October 12, 2018 11:00am-12:00pm EDT
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♪ ♪ ♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk alley." i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and jon fortt the markets are bouncing after 1300 points down in two days another 300 back as stocks rally, the dow is having a tough week let's get to the floor, bob pisani, see what's moving. >> good morning, carl. we have what you would call a classic oversold bounce. sectors moving the stuff with the worst time is on the up side, including emerging market stocks, semiconductor, home building stocks, retailers, material names the dow is largely tech movement, visa, apple, microsoft, dowdupont, walgreens boots turning around
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banks, generally good numbers, jpmorgan, good numbers slowly but surely banks are coming off highs most of the regional banks are negative on the day. lot of people discussing how to read bank reports properly why did we turn around the simplest explanation is correct. drastically oversold conditions. and other incidental things. discussions about president trump and xi possibly meeting in the next few weeks, china not a currency manipulator, mnuchin staff recommending that come down, and kudlow and mnuchin making positive comments on powell remember why we had problems the last couple of weeks, it didn't come out of nowhere, we're dealing with higher rates, tech was dramatically overbought,
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higher costs, peak margin concerns, tariff tensions. concerns on china. it is perhaps understandable why the markets had a tough time dealing with a lot of issues back to you. >> thank you very much let's bring in global head of equities and head of equity strategy good to see you both you've kept us honest in the face of the rally all summer here is your dip is this what you expected? do you think there's more to come >> i would be cautious on a bounce we have only seen eight-tenths of a multiple point compression. a lot of issues are still present. the administration has a lot of incentives to push china harder because there's so much china can do on trade, on iran, on north korea. a lot of levers they can pull.
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also the fed is not going to be shaken off the rate hiking course 3% or better is pretty competitive with forward ten year return of equities, so i think there's a little more to go, i would be cautious in the volatile topping process. >> you have two-thirds of s&p down 10% when do things get interesting for you? >> through the course of the g 20 in bu 20 when he and xi meet it may be tumultuous until then on the trade front we'll know about the december rate hike and what it is for 2019, that could be a positive catalyst there could be more pressure between now and then, but it feels like the normalization of interest rates and yields has some pressure on pe multiple of the s&p. >> for the past week you had a number of experts on air saying
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this is the great rotation from growth to value. do you agree and if so, is that something that can power the market higher through end of the year >> that's a very interesting question actually. in our way of approaching equity markets and valuations, we look for companies with growth that are attractively valued we look for companies that give you that sort of growth where we think that stock markets follow at reasonable valuation. remember, companies can be called value and growth in different parts, different kinds of markets >> what's the lesson for investors from the pull back in terms of the role that tech stocks are going to play going
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forward, as we hit air pockets, perhaps as we continue to see the sell offs and markets finding their way. what should sectors expect based on what we have seen the last few days sorry, that was for barry. >> the lesson is be careful what you wish for normalization of interest rates and yields will bring the multiples down, make bonds more attractive versus stocks we have an environment where the fed back stop and tax inventive companies with low yields and spreads on their debt and can only go up from here, it really can't go down, so the lesson is if things get normal, the cost of money goes up and it is harder to make money in the stock market in a more reasonable multiple than we've had recently >> obviously barry weighed in briefly on the trajectory of
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rate hikes do you believe in the fed's ability to withstand criticism from the president and if they decide to pause, we have been asking guests how do you do that in a manner that doesn't make it look like you're beholden to the executive branch >> i think the fed will absolutely be working to talk about themselves as completely independent, wanting to do whatever is right for the economy going forward so if they are responding to economic data, then whatever they do will be construed by the market as them normalizing rates or looking to contain any inflation that may come in the future i think the fed will stay the course and i think it is the right thing to do in order to have some way further on if we have weakness in the economies as economic growth cycle
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matures. >> going to be one of the key questions in the next several weeks and months thank you so much. good to see you. we keep our eye on equities and european markets as well as germany now on the cusp of going red. >> take a look at the dow, up 279 points, just over 1% s&p is doing better, 1.4%. nasdaq, tech heavy, up better than 2%. and president of the new york stock exchange stacey cunningham joins us after the break a lot more "squawk alley" still to come. x1 is here to help.
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markets rebounding, dow at 300. session high was 414 after the two-day selloff. nyc president stacey cunningham joins us good to have you back. >> thank you >> october is seasonally volatile how much of a price is it? >> not much surprise if you think about the trajectory the markets have been on so long, taking a step back, markets are up over 300% since march, 2009. they're never moving one direction forever, there's always up and down it is not surprising to see the volatility this week. >> people point to the speed of yield climb. is that a surprise >> you know, i think anytime the market is reacting to movements
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like that, there's going to be a reaction what's important and what we focus on is how the markets perform, how the exchanges perform, how resilient the markets are. we are sitting here at the new york stock exchange on the floor, it is important to note during periods of volatility is where you see market models matter new york stock exchange doesn, r the only ones that are required to -- when you look at days like this week, you see quoted spreads on exchanges that don't have a market maker like that increase 50% more than the nyc spreads. that's value you can get to listed companies. >> we have seen efts take on a role during the bull market, we haven't seen a lot of big pull back, saw one earlier this year. if you were to point to anything different about the way the market is behaving during a pull
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back, is there anything related to efts? >> i think you see the level increase dramatically as they manage exposure through passive investment, we saw our volumes increase three times in the past couple of days from normal average daily volumes there, given the level of activity in that space. >> behind us, you have anaplan just started trading ten cent may be holding off on the ipo, does it effect plans to go public? >> they make decisions and we have seen that historically. two companies scheduled to price same day, and market volatility, one may choose to go, one may not. anaplan chose to weather the score. they were priced at the high end
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of the range, despite the markets, and up 40% today. >> are you getting the sense from some they're looking to delay next year even >> they're watching the market closely. i get that question a lot. how long can it sustain, is this something we should do should we escalate our plans and come in sooner rather than later. they're all looking at that. >> you're on the list to attend a future investment initiative in riyadh. cnbc backed out of that conference given some of the controversy around a journalist who disappeared in turkey. but that's not the reason why you backed out what is the reason you're no longer attending, is that a concern, the issues around saudi arabia and civil society >> i am no longer attending. i can't attend a conference, i need to be at the sec round
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table on market data, some market structure reforms, so the sec convened a meeting to talk about the market model, like i highlighted today. if we make changes in market structure that are not supporting all types of market conditions and periods of volatility, issuers and public company investors pay the price, so this topic is very important, top of mind. it is critical that i go there and be a voice in d.c. to make sure policy makers understand why the model is the way it is today, there are exchanges out there that may think it is not as important to have that rebate model, and that's a big part of why we are able to deliver more value to our list of companies and their investors. >> if you didn't have the conflict, how would these issues play into decisions to go or not? >> i have the conflict, i haven't talked much about that >> stacey, thank you >> thank you so much. >> what a week to watch.
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critical to know the markets behaved well and markets are resilient. important to understand the exchanges work together on making sure investor confidence is maintained in periods of volatility you're never going to guarantee the market can go up, you want it to operate smoothly thank you. >> good to see the ipo thanks for coming by take a look at the tech spider, that's up 2.5% best day since march 26th, and what's been a tough week for the tech sector. gentlemen, thanks for joining us we have seen a bounce today in faang names and big tech names, but in general a lot of selling there. how would you sort of sum it up? is this a buying opportunity >> you know, we think there's a selective buying opportunity, if
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you look at names like facebook and google, trading north of ten times, it is reasonable. amazon outperformed, there are two new initiatives around amazon that investors are worried about rising postal rates and minimum wage hike and what it does to expenses this is a top line driven story. we get questions from investors, what's the next leg for amazon i would say they're not created equal. there are great opportunities given some sell off. we are bullish over the long haul on big platforms. you go back in history of tech the last 15 years, it has paid to continue to add to the big platform names, stay away from some of the point solution names. we still think the play book will continue to work on ford and many internet platforms will continue to be the right place
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to be over the long haul. >> and josh, there's been a lot of focus on internet names, hardware and semi conductors sell off this week earnings season next week, ibm, netflix and others how should we think about the hardware side? >> yeah, i think that's interesting, morgan, and i did catch up with rbc, guys you know well, we talked about some of the trends tech investors, they're right into the teeth of earnings season his opinion looking at the sub sectors, pc, server, networking are strong he continues to recommend hp and ibm which reports next week, remains bulled up on apple for the chips, that's an interesting conversation if you look at the smh today, that's
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higher amd, nvidia moving higher. i spec'd in with b riley's craig ellis. there is conflicting confluence, the demand picture is mixed. smart phone, broadly underwhelming. he said he is fielding calls from investors after the sell off, and some were asking what looks oversold in his opinion it is tough even as you move into earnings season, you have big, broad questions that we're still dealing with on trade tensions, tariffs. if those worsen, craig's point was there's no name in his coverage universe he considers -- he is trying chip investors, equipment companies you still look for those that pay dividend and pay through the wait of the transition >> brent, one of the big
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overarching debates in tech regards cycling. tons of runway, social, cloud and others, chips aside, i wonder how much validity you put in that argument >> we go through cycles. we have seen the movement. software massively outperformed, internet is weaker, seen a movement in and out of semis into software. software which is the sector we cover with other colleagues is the league you look at anaplan, the success of that launch, we continue to believe that has the strongest sentiment, and we think these overall, the overall software, internet sector will remain one of the go to sectors, has been and there are pockets of strength in each of the sectors. networking has massively outperformed many internet
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names. tech in general, in internet, you have to hold the big platforms. betting on number two or three is not good. in software, we see that strategy worked. it works for different sectors inside tech. >> brentbrent, are we factoring negative drag from the rest of the world, outside north america? you talk about the companies, on one hand, global companies, talk about how well the u.s. stock market is doing. we are entering earnings season, have a relatively strong dollar. you have markets that have diverged, u.s. versus the rest of the world will we see impact on demand for some tech companies that are expected to deliver decent growth numbers across the board? >> yeah, i think it is possible.
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obviously gdpr in europe has been an overhang for a lot of names. seen good names out of china, and pockets of strength foray do -- for adobe. we believe now overall global demand is good we have not seen major decay you look at twitter, the international business outpaces the u.s. business. there's clearly strength in twitter's business, looking for reacceleration it has been good and that's what's worrying investors, demand has been so great, stocks moved hard, multiples have gone up where do we go from here
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clearly the markets are digesting. we will see a little slow down they highlighted potential slow down next year, you're seeing big ceos of major tech companies saying we are about to hit the air brakes we don't think we come to a screaming halt but think growth will moderate, slow, and that will impact multiples. >> something to watch very closely as earnings season gets under way. thanks for joining us. dow continues to try to break out of a slump, up 276 our eye on europe as well. seven minutes left, they try to geerhimoingains they put toth ts rng. back in a moment
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welcome back let's get over to seema mody for the european close in a turbulent week there as well. >> what a week, morgan european stocks bouncing back, fading into the close. stock 600 ended down, but trading at a two year low. this week the italian stock market entered bear market territory on pace for the worst week since november of 2016. the italian benchmark down more than 21% from may highs. technology, auto stocks the two worst performing sectors financials seeing sharp losses look at the performance of major european banks down since the start of 2018
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ubs adown major break through in relations that detained pastor brunson has been released from house arrest in turkey the u.s. imposed sanctions in response to his detention earlier this year, weighing on the currency >> thank you good morning, jon, good morning, everyone. at least 34 people were killed in mud slides triggered by torrential rains in uganda more victims likely to be discovered as they access the effected areas homes destroyed in three villages. italian and french maritime officials continue cleanup after ships collide north of corsica they have barriers to contain the fuel spill that spread more than 12 miles. toyota recalling more than 168,000 pickups, suvs and cars because air bags may not inflate
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in a crash it covers tundra and sequoia and 2019 avalon sedans. and look at that, the robotics company showcasing a robot hopping over a log, upstairs without breaking stride is it just me, is that creepy? that's the news update back downtown to you guys. morgan >> i know a lot of humans can't do that, i think it is impressive if it can break dance, my socks will be knocked off. coming up, alan blienlder and frederick mishkin join us. back after this break. hi i'm joan lunden.
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i am here at the engage student investment conference. we sat down with charles evans this morning who became the first fed official to talk about response to the president's remarks after calling the federal reserve crazy. usually we don't play responses like this, but i thought it was instructive to hear how mr. evans responds when i asked if he thought the president should be commenting on the federal reserve the way he has >> i can't answer that, but i'll say the federal reserve has a large amount of autonomy that is granted us by congress and the president through the federal reserve act. we are supposed to support monetary conditions that promote price stability. >> this is how the fed officials are going to respond, they're not going to engage in a back and forth with president trump but what they're going to do is talk about their policy and charles evans said the economy
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is very strong, necessitating rate hikes here's what he says about the outlook for interest rates. >> i kind of think neutral, 2.75 to 3%. after many years of accommodative policy which i supported strongly because inflation is now 2%, it is time to readjust the policy stance to at least neutral, see how the economy is performing, and we may have to do more after that >> i asked him what a little bit more is. maybe 50 basis points. do the math. 3.25 to 3.5 if needed with stronger economy i will say, he pointed to the president's policies as part of the reason why the economy is so strong so give on one hand, have to take it away someplace else when it comes to interest rates and need to adjust policy away from the financial crisis here. >> good stuff, steve
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thank you. steve liesman has been busy this week. let's bring in alan blinder and frederic mishkin good to see you both good morning to you. >> good morning. >> fred, i am keeping a list of people that have been asked to respond to the loco comment. yellen, la guard, evans, carney, diamond, mnuchin, summers. no one thinks it is extraordinarily dangerous. you? >> well, hears the issue which is it is clearly not helpful that the president is making these kind of comments but this is trump being trump and i think we can't take it too seriously, and i think the reason why where you worry is if the president was making comments and then taking actions to interfere with the independence of the federal reserve. what's in some ways good and also surprising is how strong the appointments are that strtr
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is making to federal reserve jay powell, the situation with nelly lange, the new vice chairman, superb appointments. i would worry if trump was saying these kinds of things if he was doing things hostile to the fed and trying to interfere with their independence. trump loves to say wild and crazy things this is just another example of it >> alan, it does raise the question what true interference would look like, issuing your own dot plot, saying which way you would vote at a meeting if you were at the table. do you agree with kudlow's view this is not interfering with the independence >> with michigshkin's view, yes. trump shoots his mouth off on every subject without any knowledge of what he is talking about. we are used to that. action would be something like making terrible appointments to
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the fed, which as you heard from rick is the opposite of what he was doing. bringing up some of the things that congress had rejected in the so-called choice act that would put shackles on the feds i wouldn't worry if he spouted off, said the funds rate should be 1%. the key thing there which the fed is doing exactly correctly now is that the fed not take the bait i think they're all too smart to start engaging in a verbal ping pong game with the white house i don't believe they'll do that. i think they'll basically ignore him. >> i completelyagree with alan on this. >> okay. fred, there seems to be a brewing debate in light of what we have seen in markets the last week and a half around the normalization process by the fed. what the neutral rate should look like and how quickly we get
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there. breakdown for me what you think normal should be, especially given the fact we have seen the market moves we have, and the fact that we have a whole generation invested in the market millennials that haven't known anything but unprecedented monetary stimulus. >> i think it is important to recognize that we don't know what neutral is. this is very important in terms of thinking how to do monetary policy we frequently talk about this neutral rate and we don't know exactly what it is you have to be open to the fact that when you do policy, it may not work out quite the way you hoped and you have to change things this is similar to the issue of natural rate of unemployment we don't know, the fed changed its views on it substantially recently if you look at the dot plots, they changed view on what that
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equ is if you try to stick to a number you think is right and you're wrong, that can create huge problems and that has happened in the past. >> in the past couple of days we had a few people say the u.s. has been outperforming the rest of the world in terms of the stock market for awhile, and that couldn't continue forever today we have a rebound. things in the green. what's the lesson we take away as far as the u.s.'s ability to disconnect from the rest of the world financial performance wise in the stock market and how does it play into what we should expect to see the rest of the year >> i think first of all, step back to the u.s. economy i think we have more ability than most countries because of our size and relative lack of dependence on exports and imports compared to most countries to disconnect substantially the economy from the rest of the world, and some of that is happening now
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so that's a jumping off point for the stock market, but only a jumping off point, and you know the stock market, i think rick used the craze before, wild and crazy guys, there are a lot of wild and crazy guys in the stock market stocks go up, stocks go down i think i looked a little before i came on camera, it may have changed radically by now, we are down about 4% over the three days who knows if 4% higher or 4% lower is where the stock market should be. i certainly don't. frankly most people that aren't trading stocks for a living don't care that much either. >> this is true. doesn't mean we can'tcover it "tick by tick. we will continue to do so. appreciate it. see you guys soon. let's get to sue herera. >> sources are telling cnbc.com,
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sears is closing in on bankruptcy, may file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend is also near a deal for some financing to keep stores open through the upcoming holiday season it does apparently according to cnbc include closing some stores we don't know how many or how it may effect the 900 stores and whether or not there are certain markets they're going to keep open and certain markets they're going to close, but the long shot is they're looking for a buyer. they're close to getting financing that would keep them alive through the holiday season, but they're expected to file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend guys, back to you. the stock is a micro cap at this point. that's why you're seeing a big percentage move in the stock back to you. >> it is a stock that stays alive. that's amazing sue, thanks. up next, anaplan opened for
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again? and the call of the day, one of the most beaten down faang stocks can netflix get out of the bear market see you in 15. >> sounds good looking forward to it. market turmoil led to postponement of a number of offerings. anaplan surging in its debut, the stock up more than 38% joining us, the ceo. >> thank you, jon. great to be here. >> congratulations let's dig into what anaplan is, what sets it apart you do business planning that involves data from a lot of different areas, on one hand in a category similar to sales force, adobe when you talk about relationship management. on the other hand, seems old school way to do the planning was was in excel
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>> so what we have is what we call connective planning all organizations have a challenge for so many years. i have been doing planning myself over 30 years primarily because planning, most of us think of financial planning, but really it is business planning. everybody in an organization plans, in finance, sales, supply chain. but it is allowing them all to be together on a common platform, so data is consistent, so they're not spending all their time trying to reconcile different aspects of the business, and really to make decisions real time about the future rather than focus on the past it is a cloud based platform that enables more effective planning across an enterprise. >> before you were a ceo, you were the lebron james of cfos. >> i worked with some great
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companies. >> you did a lot of planning in this cloud environment where you have data living in so many different clouds, kind of organized different ways, what kind of new challenges does that present to an enterprise trying to take financial data, marketing data, take employee data, and put together a plan on who is doing what, how it is going to work based on all of that. >> that's what anaplan does. our platform pulls in data from so many sources, allows you as user, say a planner, to have all of it on one platform. again, you're not worrying about reconciling information so you can make more effective decisions. think about that, right? bring it all together, in front of you, on a real time basis through the organization we have tens of thousands on our platform in a particular company with access, they're able to plan faster. my experience, jon, in the past we spent 8 months putting plans together when you do it in real time, you talk about doing it daily or
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instantly. being able to be more reactive to changes in your business. >> i have to get your thoughts on the week that was it was quite a week to take the company public mind you, stocks are in rally mode today, but given what we have seen, the dow falling more than 1300 points in two days, did you think about or consider holding off? >> no. i look at anaplan and what we have been able to accomplish so far, and i think we have a strong business, a very strong business on a unique platform that no one else has anything close to us. i know about our future. we have almost a thousand customers and those customers have been with anaplan, and we're adding a new number of customers on a regular basis so i was looking at the future of anaplan, how it can be positioned i think things worked out well in the last two weeks. but again, it is one day of many to come. we are focused on continuing to grow a successful business. >> how does profitability happen
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for you guys is this a traditional story, add more customers, you add more features, then it comes at some point down the line? what does the model have to look like >> we call this a land and expand we sell users, right, those that subscribe into the platform, and as companies start to work with anaplan, they can start with 100 users, they find the value they get from effective planning and add hundreds and thousands of users into the platform. for us, that's how we scale with the customer and add new customers. number of users, as we expand we get more revenue that allows us to provide the foundation to be profitable. a compelling business model. >> we will continue to track it. anaplan, priced at 17, trading about $23 a share. increase of better than 36%.
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frank, thanks for being here. 75% of the s&p closing in correction territory yesterday back in rally mode today we have more on why markets are bouncing back coming up in a few minus.ayituste st wh of helping people. of helping people. we're in the business of helping you. business loans for eligible card members up to fifty thousand dollars, decided in as little as 60 seconds. the powerful backing of american express. don't do business without it. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today.
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you'll only pay $4.95. unstopand it's strengthenedting place, the by xfi pods,gateway. which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. let's get to rick san it'te and get "the santelli exchange." >> reporter: if it's earnings season, it's rebecca corbin. i welcome you, corbin advisers,
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of course. >> good to be back >> reporter: what was the cutoff survey for the survey? >> september 11 through october 2, 79 global institutional investors totaling almost $800 billion in equity assets >> reporter: october 2nd they missed some of the biggest volatility >> these are not traders these are long-term investors focused on the market. i was sitting in my airplane seat on the way thinking today would be a rebound >> reporter: did they see anything in the crystal ball >> absolutely. they took 35% cash out of the market october is notorious for being extremely volatile it's the third quarter we see more preannouncements and we have inflation, input costs and tariffs. >> reporter: so rising interest rates has been the theme and its effects on equities, it's part of that input cost turnstile so input costs and tariffs is the biggest worry. >> we have had a very strong economic backdrop, great growth from these organizations they've put in dealing with input costs since january and cost increases in place.
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they've been able to keep up with it. this latest tariff of $200 billion came in september. their organizations are focused. if tariffs go off the table, there will be a big sigh of relief >> reporter: listen, we talk about trade wars a lot, but you're really on the boardroom level. this is very interesting >> all ceos -- >> reporter: we have jamie dimon and he expressed worries as well >> i agree with him. that's what we see this is a major concern and something that investors are talking about and corporations are speaking about and whether or not they'll be able to do that, i don't think we'll see in the third quarter fourth quarter we'll see guidance revisions downward, more cautious tone from executives until they work through the price increases. >> reporter: you're more worried about guidance in q4 mile get squashed but
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you're ott optimistic. they could at least give us a buy on all the negative issues while they discuss it. >> i think the market was oversold, we've seen that. more room to run investors are focused on the back half of 2019 for a recession. we still have good growth. these things are snowballing to some extent and it's crushing, squeezing the profits that companies have been able to have >> reporter: this is the big topic, earnings compression. so if operating costs get affected because of rising input costs and they can't pass on to the consumer, they have to grow their way out and tariffs is the impediment >> they're going to have to cut their way, out if these tariffs stay and they can't pass on that cost, we are going to look at cost cutting at companies and that will be head count reduction and what i'm looking for to signal the first signs of a recession >> reporter: rebecca corbin, it's always interesting. i always welcome the thoughts of your 79 respondents.
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thank you for joining me carl quintanilla, back to you. >> rick, thank you we're watching the markets the dow up 153, about 250 points off the highs of the session some of these regional banks are really leading the way lower hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. these are affordable, all-in-one plans that help pay for doctor visits, hospital stays and emergency care. but they also include prescription drug coverage. in fact, last year humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members
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major indexes are higher today though off the highs of the morning. the dow is up about 181 points or 0.7%. the s&p up 28 points, 1% the nasdaq up 1.6% keep in mind, guys, we're still down more than 4% for each of the indexes after what's been a roller coaster ride for stocks >> financials, especially the regionals, rolling over into this later part of the session even despite good numbers out of jpmorgan, citi and wells next week morgan stanley, netflix, ibm, csx -- you name it that will be huge. >> today in social, snap is way
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up a bit of a rally of the unloved there, up almost 5%. twitter doing pretty well also up 2.5%. facebook one of the few tech stocks i'm looking at that is not higher that is off by two-thirds of a percent. >> the big cap stocks have been not hit as hard this week. >> let's hear what kudlow tells the judge. let's get to "the half." thanks, carl i'm scott wapner stocks are bouncing back following the biggest two-day sell-off in eight months is the worst of the correction now over is it really safe to buy stocks? it's noon and this is "the halftime report. larry kudlow is back on "the halftime report. on the agenda, fed fight, the trade battle, and how fast the economy is really growing. plus, market veteran liz ann sonders on whether or not it's time to buy stocks after this week's stocks. and a big call on beaten down netflix as we debate big tech after the beatdown "the
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