toward tomorrow with another big selloff on wall street i guess we are watching the chinese. >> watch the overseas markets, chinese markets, you are having a lot of people looking at the pull back and say is it part of what happened last week a retest relast. >> jitery. >> unstable. >> that's it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins to you. >> life from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square i'm melissa lie tp we have dan nathan guy adam, karen finerman the momentum trade is losing moments up tech stocks are cracking and a top technician says two names are about to break out he will be here plus the new ceo of goldman sachs david solomon speaking out for the first time. he tells you what could have investors excited about the stock. but first the big selloff process. the dow sinking nearly 500 points at the lows of the session as threats from around the world hit home chinese stocks getting crushed

under president xi's rain as trade talks stall. the u.s. pulling out of the summit in saudi arabia after the suspected killing of a journalist by mohamed bin is salman and ezb making comments. and then the looming threat of the fed and the next move. with all of this going on are earnings not enough to save the rally? there more pain ahead, guy two days we go we were paying the brutal song. and i said that's a awful song everything is amazing. >> got your wish. >> it's not my wish. i don't wish for things to go lower. but you ask me is the worst over i said no. i said if you said to me guy, g oochlt o ee 500 point move up or down i said down. i was wrong and then i said but i still there is more pain ahead. here we are today. is there more pain from here i think so, yeah not because i want it. but because the market tells me that i'll give you examples kudos dan

nathan dan said fade it right back to where it was but what we talked about that same night, more importantly i think was chesapeake csx reporting what. >> chesapeake or csx. >> chess ee railroad used to be called chesapeake that's how old i am. >> right process >> yes, thanks. >> the a horse. >> exactly with that said pretty outstanding quarter. we said it needs to get above $75. look where it is two days later tp trading 68. good quarters have been faced with selling bad quarters companies get obliterated completely different than six months. with that said, yes i think there is further downside. >> banks were tough today. industrials were tough. >> yes. >> transports were tough today. >> right. >> small caps, technology. >> thank you for pointing out everything i have. yes tu -- not every single thing.

yeah pretty much every single thing. banks were the least of it i thought in this market that was fine for me, industrials, my exposure tos industrials uri united rentals was awful. i thought the reaction of the stock was way, way bigger than what they actually put out you know, so we china overnight. that's spooked the market. and then so caterpillar traded down and the industrials are down united rentals is an entirely u.s. and canadian business, right? a tiny exposure in europe. so i think that was way, way overdone way beyond what they reported which wasn't terrible. wasn't good enough in this tape. but there were things to like as well process i'd like to buy more united rentals. i didn't feel today was the day to do it i'd like to wait two or three days the three day rule one started coming already, one analyst downgraded but i thought it was not bad i'd like more of that. i probably will buy more but want to wait a little.

>> that's exactly what everybody is saying in the market. all these things that brought the market down today have been around for six months. we have talked about them. we debated about them. all of a sudden it matters and there is no reason to buy. why do i need to rush in and add on to a position why not let it come to me. there is no fomo it's exactly the opposite all of the things the four things we mentioned at the top, any one could be the catalyst that in six months hurts earnings not necessarily doing it today but the market cares about it today. and i guess i'm in the camp with you, i think we go lower it doesn't feel like we washed out on this. >> here is the thing they are hurting earnings and outlooks. and the uncertainty about all the issues geopolitically and the stuff here domestically are weighing on guidance a margins that's why industrials are getting hit. you talk about the uri it's coming to you. 52-week low the last month and made a new one every day i could list off other stocks

economically sensitive doing the same thing the question was will earnings stabilize the market decline we are in right now the s&p is about 5.5% from the all-time highs last month. and i contest there there are five stocks. maga and f appear. microsoft, google, amazon and throw in facebook. they make 20% of the s&p they make up a disproportionate amount of the s&p expected growths. that's what you value. the other stuff is chief for a reason they have hit peak mrjens, seeing massive did seeing the deacceleration. fischer is out sorry cramer it's rerated you take the earnings estimates down dramatically the question we have to ask ourselves into 2019 is that going to happen to maga? if it happens to maga then the s&p is way expense disbelieve i have request kwe in terms of the stocks you watch that matter is it because they

are weights in the index or should we concerned about stocks that are bellwethers in the economy. >> when the market accelerates downside and they go the same direction lower it's dragging everything down with it. you are not going to actually start to pick at these names, that are getting all betten up you are going to the source of funds. i think that's what's happening. i don't think this happenedy yet. >> when you say you're not picking at which names. >> the losers, the gms i keep doing it i just keep some dry powder i understand. >> it's messy. >> here is the thing karen, where you and i disagree. >> on everything but go on. >> no where you -- i got guy laughing over my shoulder. i got worried -- i got to worry about these guys laughing me and divider isn't here yet what the -- so my take -- my point very simply is i don't think -- there are few investors out there that are really repricing the big in megacap

tech stocks for lower growth next year np those are the things when we get the earnings and they start in earnest, the 24th, 25th and to the 1st that's when -- listen but here is the tup if the rest of the market, the rest of the sentiment takes it lower into it we could have this sort of bounce that we saw in netflix. the worst-case scenario they get a bounce. >> and fade like netflix. >> we want to bring in tony divider. he has been laughing at dan during the conversation. >> it would be awkward if we didn't address him. >> sitting next to him usually he is there. >> tony says the market correction in the selloff may not be over yet. tony of course is of drchlt anacorep what are the signs the markets stabilize. >> i'm hunting for a fundamental reason other than what we know in what's going on in the decline, because it feels so awful. a couple weeks ago on the show we identified a couple of

indicators said we're in a correction and getting worse and it did part of that was i think the whole correction was born more out of excessive bullishness with over 60% of news letter writers bullish. and extreme intermediate term overbought condition and vix at 11 or 12. historically low volatility. historically high complacency in a bull market where you in the fed tightening regime that's opening the door for an out of the no where we knew that it's going down now big anyway. i'm in the camp with karen where i think, yeah, this is a tactical market that is under a lot of pressure. obviously, right and i've always said i'm not a great trader right? and i'm good at being wrong. what i'm pretty good about is identifying intermediate term bottoms. historically when you get the vix to spike on a itself or rate of change indicator when you get the market washed out with the percentage of stocks trading above the 10-day moving average, down to 2% last thursday when you get into those numbers

you're kind of circling it and what you really want to see is you want to see a positive divergence on retest you want to be the vix not go back foup 28 when you re-test or even slightly break a low. i could easily see that. but i think you want to be a buyer then. >> tony about six months ago we talked about the flat yield curve. you argued that the market could run 18 months at least with a flat yield curve so now we've got -- we're six months into it you were spot on we have the next 12 months is the market starting to price in potential recession in 2019 >> i think it absolutely is inappropriately beginning to discount a recession here is why. >> inappropriately i wanted i want to underscore that. >> here is why from the initial day of the inversion of the 23/10 u uz li u.s. treasury curve, the market peaks 21% higher 18 and a half months later we haven't inverted. from him turbthe cycle. peak in the nsi. optimism index you go in a

rerecession median months later. that happened last month when the ism mchgt index not just small business but manufacturing peaks for the cycle you have pennsylvania 31-month lead time. >> do these line up to be -- to be exactly right when you look. >> yeah. >> yes in cycles >> basically let's cut to thes chase, right as much as people think i'm a perm a bull i'm a perm a bear when credit is good and bear when it's bad. know matter who is talking jamie dimon knows more about credit than i do. karen knows more about credit than i do. larry feng knows more about credit than i do they run usage companies and any say we don't have issues in credit. >> but they are speaking to slower loan growth one of the things i think is important -- we were just having the discussion with karen. when you look at the -- the economicallysensitive groups look at the autos, industrials, home builders, it's really horrible action. at this stage of the cycle when

we tighten, why would you dip your toe into any of these things in the ninth year of a bull market when everybody sees the inverted yield curve and counting down the 18 months could be late '19. >> fine. >> not fine let's talk data. we could disagree or agree the opinion doesn't matter. >> why would you buy any of the stocks when trading at 52-week low. >> because. >> you're not a trader bear mack rally angle when you get to the 18 basis points tread in the 2/10 curve you get a resteepening like we had. banks wait a bit i've done this on show inappropriately too early and then rip in the 1995 in the banks, guess what, they were breaking down and they looked horrible just before a historic outperformance 2005, a very different cycle from again about 18 basis points you got a resteepening. >> you tell me that citi bank is making a new high, goldman

sachs, morgan stanley make new highs in the cycle not a chance. >> i'll bet you a dan nathan cryptocoin that three months. >> i don't know what thas. >> three months bank outperform. >> they've been massively underperforming the last year. goldman sachs was under performing the day of the election >> they had extraordinary outperformance through the ended of last year and through january. they have absolutely underperformed since then. and i have openly say it's been a horrible call. i'm good at -- i'm not going to say i'm always right can you compound -- and i really want to pass this long to people that wfrp. you can compound a mistake by making another mistake and selling them wrong. >> tony, thanks. >> back to the books by the way. >> i don't know what to bet. >> that's why i made it up so we didn't have to do anything. >> what did you do today. >> there is a positive catalyst potentially 19 days from now in the midterm election which we don't talk about because we don't want to go down -- if the

republicans hold serve i think the market takes that as extraordinarily bullish. i don't know the probability of that happening but process it happens i think you'd get a knee jerk up zblied the bulls in the senate. >> i don't know what happens in the election i don't live in illinois if they hold serve you could see a knee jerk to the up side. >> stay out of the way that's the right thing. last we can we got a tradeable rally two days now you have to get out of the way in the market until this washes out can i come up with catalyst sns absolutely can i disagree with house the veer people are taking powell's comments sure. but the market says stay out of the way right now. that's the only move to make right now. >> we got a market flash on dow you dooucht let's go to eric in the newsroom for the details. >> the stock is down 6%. dow dew point reporting a 4.6 impairment charge related to good will and other assets in

their agriculture reporting unit and this comes at a bad time for the stock. down about 15% the past four equinox. dow dupont down 6% after hours back to you. >> thank you eric. eric in the numerous. >> throw that on the heap of stuff we didn't get to materials and chemicals. we could go on and on. back to what do you do today look at the russell 2000 supposed to be a safe haven with all the turmoil around tariffs it's down 10% from recent highs. look at the qqq, the five stocks maga and facebook make up 50% of the weight i think we see lower lows if the markets continues lower into the prints you can take a shot on them they are massively overdone at some point into what's likely to be decent news they are not guiding down for 2019. >> who are you saying is worth taking a so the on. >> if you see microsoft, apple, google, amazon into the earnings we have another week continue the selloff the

likelihood su see decent results. >> because the bar is lower. >> bar is lower and expectations aren't high at that point. >> that was a great ink blot heated tony divider wasn't here but he was here. >> we have 45 left the show dry powder. >> that's all i have. >> thanks. >> coming up coming up check out the after hours action paypal snores after american express high are we give you the latest reaction from wall street analysts plus what is wrong with goldman sachs? it's the question shareds are asking all year. we hear what the ceo said on the network that could answer the equip. later stocks crushed one unlikely safety trade emerging you won't believe what it is live from times square in new chor"ft ne rht mu me asmoy"ig after this x1 is here to help.

you can do things like change your settings, learn tips and tricks, troubleshoot, and even manage your account. finding your xfinity username or wifi password, restarting your equipment,

or paying your bill is easier than ever with x1. x1 help. another reason to love x1. say "teach me more" into your voice remote to get started. welcome back to "fast money. new goldman sachs ceo david solomon sitting down with wilfred frost moments ago since taking the ceo role. touching on everything from the fed to market volatility and declines in the company's trading business >> there were fundamental structural changes, including regulation that took certain parts of the business away and so the overall wallet has shrink significantly opinion. and the market share in the last 12 months has been growing we have fantastic in the business they do a very very good job we have to going forward articulate what this business, where this business is going from here, not look back to ten years ago and talk about what it was before the financial crisis,

before the remake. >> goldman shares down nearly 12% this year. are there signs of a turn around is it just a communication problem? >> no it's more than communication. well communication and so much they have to explain to wall street investor what is the new goldman sachs looks at if that's a communication problem. but the problem is they don't have the avenues to make money like they did when i was there, 40 something years ago it's a whole entirely different firm and that's fine. >> is that when with the horse. >> both as it turns out. >> the train. >> take the horse to the train you know, going to fee based business all good things. they will probably at some point reduce head count. i would imagine. but you have to ask what's the proper valuation this environment i would suggest 1.5 times price to book value is about right. goldman reported we talked about the other night tangible book in the company is 187 you slap a 1.5 multiple you got a $$275 stock. ky do the math but the market says differently.

>> what happens during the day on price to book. >> these were north of two and close to three i'm not suggesting we get back to the peak in '7 or '8 but i'm suggesting some level of normalcy they are not jp morgan they're probably like 1.9 times price to bookish >> it should. >> it should. >> i hear what you say and that sounds. >> reasonably. >> trying to get a fee-based steady extreme business. goldman sachs is a very lumpy multiple of under 9. can even if prove sins gets squeezed if they make the transformation does the multiple get high enough to make up for that i don't know maybe. >> i think the question is but how long does it take? and are investors going to be patient enough to stick around if you look at the way the stock traded in this environment and just talking purely on trading, investors don't look like they want to stick around $200, wig level for the stock. that's where it's bounced off

off last couple of years if it breaks through that then the market tells you you have a turnover the investor base from those betting on that big growth model to perhaps the value model. >> is this a short >> no, it feels like it's the first megacap bank stock to reverse the move from the november 2016 spike. where they really took off and had the period of outperformance i don't know why people aren't give him more time to articulate his story a bit. he did a nice job with wilf today. but this is an amtzing franchise. but the biggest risk is where are we in the cycle where do you dip in the water because if the economy starts to turn this stock is back at $150 in two years it's that simple if it's trading one times book right now. and every strategist we bring on every bank analyst we bring on, every investor on this air is pounding the table to buy goldman sachs and it trades like

crap the way it does now what's going to turn it. >> hold on would you say, then if the book value went down from a one times book value. >> it goes to guy's 139 87 the company had $45 billion in sales in 2007. they cot cut in half back to peak earnings 25 bucks the return on equity is lower to your point and now working with much lower taxes. the numbers just don't add up right now. so to me it's got to be all the other stuff. the only reason why jp and bank have the alleges o valuations at 1.5 times book or whatever is because the capital base and how they make money. they do it differently and in a different steal want goldman and morgan. >> for more whn on what david solomon said and "closing bell" you had head over to cnbc.com. you are fachs "fast money" on cnbc in the meantime here is what else is coming up on fast. >> announcer: the tech trade is be cracking. and the top technician says two names are about to breck

he tells us what they are and why he is so worried plus. >> i love gold >> you might love the precious metal. but there could be a new safety trade-in town driving the gold bugs wild. >> oh, behave. >> we'll explain much more "fast moy"ft ts.ne aerhi

welcome back to "fast money. the tech wreck rages on with the sector now down 7% in october alone. our bob pisani joins from us the nyse with more on that hello, bob. >> china worries, higher costs, other margin pressures, higher rates, coming together to make it an ugly month for tech investors. look the biggest damage sectorwise is in the semi conductor. big names are down double digits you see here but hardware isn't doing better. corning and fit bit and seagate down 8 to 11%. apple unskagd down 5%.

software is only marjly better, oracle, adobe, intuit down in the high single digits new issue developed to ish saudi arabia's increasing ice lays as treasury steve unusualen pulled out of a conference in saudi arabia tech investors pointed out throughout the day that the saudis are large investors in technology including tech funds run by softbank and there are concerns they may withdraw from involvement in technology if the isolation increases, another thing to worry about semi conductors drooped on the news np in the nasdaq nasdaq was the 10 oh biggest decliners ones day. down 7% for the month. >> bob pisani at the nyse. what to we do? bad action. >> it's not great action people are just stepping away from it. i think the saudi arabia angle is interesting and going back to what goldman sachs does, you you think about it if there aren't a lot of

venture capital investment what's the exit play for venture capital. it's banking ipo i've heard this from people in silicon valley that they are concerned. if you get less venture capital the investments there is less deals through the pipeline for goldman sachs. >> and there are data points we get real time, taiwan semiovernight. taiwan semihad issues, saying demand for the kmips one fifth of the revenue from apple. and then that's softening. >> i think the issue with semi conductors is that it's highly cyclical and we know there was a lot of pull-through from the first half of the year this is one of the reasons this group in particular did top out back in marni. we have seen the series of lower lows and lower highs if i look at the smh which touched 95 at the lows last thursday in the throes of the selloff it's at 96.5 right now that's wasn't a heck of a bounce i will make one other point nvidia is the sentiment leader in the space that stock started below 200

got to just below 300 a few months ago down 17ners a straight line the last couple weeks. if you lose sentiment leaders like that that's one you want to cope the eye on that's toast. >> the cracks emerge in the tech strayed our next guest says there are stocks about to break. over at the plasma with two names to sell and one to buy, rob what are you looking at. >> we want to step back and think about the market cycle when you think about that think of the low in souf it's consistent with a four-ier cycle low those go back in time. as we see the leadership fraying in various areas sumit dan was talking about the semi conductor peaking out in the beginning of the year tech has held up well with the big up trends pretty much in place and still right on the line, just holding in. but what's critical what i think is really important is this relative performance is beginning to wain a bit.

in fact we this the multiweek low. there is a lot of positioning here, crowded trades and a lot of the software aneurysm t. names pu but you see fraying. we look at names that had quite a bit of damage and are setting up for a trading bounce, but i think you want to sell into the strength the reason for that is when we look at long-term trends on facebook, these things are breaking these uptrends. that's a 20% decline right -- oops that's not working out well that's a 20% decline -- try it one more time. 20% decline where we had the break. now it's down another 30%. these are trend breaks in the stocks looking at the relative performance it's taking out the low we had at the beginning of 2018 what we are seeing is fraying in former loerds pleerds and broken down you have strength in these names you want to be cutting back looking at micron, who huge

uptrends but these are beginning to breck on the stock. i think you want to use strength to market it's good at discounting ar we get the fraying leadership here again the relative performance is taking out the lows you had at the end of 2018. so what do you do? i think the comment has been you want to be diversifying portfolios away from the concentrated leadership don't sell everything but diversify away to some areas that haven't participated during the market cycle through 2016 now, it's a little bit of a forgotten name but wahl grown boots really hasn't done anything for most of this market cycle. it's been we can that relative strength is starting to turn and when we look at the price, again, we have had almost a two-year year bear market. and what's terrific is comes back in the maefts base. it's a diversifier similar to a name like disney stocks doing nothing for two here's and now emerging that's where you put the new capital glow. >> all right rob come on over.

>> just so we get -- can we establish -- dsh we no longer vote. >> we established that and i don't ask you anymore. >> there are no questions here. >> we pass we fast. >> you always say no any how guy i sauls ano. >> the one tech stou recommended was wahl greens boots alliance. >> did it look terrible. >> i wouldn't say that look fat software names adobe crm, mid-cap software names have been big leaders. you could have said they were stretched the last two years now, they don't look lielk like in timely buys as you work through the groups you see the semis roll over. many come a long way applied materials broke at the beginning of 18 you have to be careful at the short side now. they have come down so far you can get a short squeeze quickly. so i wouldn't say the entire sector is terrible but incrementally we see fraying and you want to diversify away. >> you brought up micron

they started as a $40 stock late january, early february. round tripped it now here we are again. is there a chance we put in somewhat of a double bottom and mu and. >> possible. 60 down to 40 and change maybe 40, 50 bucks and it's very overshold on the short-basis you come into earnings a lot of negativity you get bounces but it's part of a bigger cyclical peek when we brink thinking about the broader market cycle s semis are part of that economic area and these are bigger tops developing into 2019 i think we want to look more at values names names not leading the market the last two years. >> so i want to go back to fischer. because i look at the char to my eye, 150 seems really good support, right. >> 100%. >> are you saying to sell -- to sell the rallies and it's breaking through 150 ultimately. >> i think it will when you see the gaps in growth stocks that have been held by so many it generally takes a minimum of one to two quarters before any of the growth managers come back and buy the stock. it's going to have to put up

very strong earnings for the guys that chase and make trends to come back into the name i'd stay on the sidelines i think it's dead money. >> it's been a rough few weeks for investors in general when you look at the market action is there anything causing you to say there has been damage done technically to any parts of the market because of the volatility in the past few weeks. >> yes definitely dang we have all kinds of stocks, groups that rallied back to the 2018 highs the industrials are a good example. in the short-term we want to be cautious getting overly negative the short-term da data is getting oversold at the current levels down 7% or so. and we are putting in the trading balance. coming into earnings you goat a recovery again the bigger risk is moving into 2019. >> okay. rob thank you. >> thank you. >> how are you feeling about facebook, karen. >> a little nervous. but we'll see. it's october 31 i think they are reporting. and the bar has been lowered quite a bit. i'm a little nervous but definitely hanging on until

earnings. >> all right still ahead, it was a sea of of red and wall street with all the major indices slammed again. how do you know if the bottom is in guy has three things to watch pch plus check out paypal soaring in the after hours session. we tell you what's driving the stock and bring you instant reaction from wall street analysts whefomeetnsn r rur something is transforming and our world.. it's the longevity economy - americans 50+ driving 7.6 trillion dollars... of economic activity every year.

right before our eyes, aging is unleashing exponential growth... ...in every industry. are you ready? we are. a-a-r-p is teaming up with business leaders and innovators... ...sparking new ideas and real solutions. so, what are you waiting for? the meeting of the executive finance committee is now in session. and... adjourned. business loans for eligible card members up to fifty thousand dollars, decided in as little as 60 seconds. the powerful backing of american express. don't do business without it.

welcome back to "fast money. paypal soaring after hours

following the earnings report. the stock up 7.5%. dedra bosa still across the border in torn o she gives us the details on paypal. >> melissa, the stock is surging in the after hours after the company released the fiscal 2019 guyedens analysts pleased with what they say projected 2019 revenue growth of approximately 17%. in non-gop eps growth up 20% forecast the street was also looking for more signs that paypal is monetizing venmo many saying this is where the long-term growth comes from. earlier this tahoe year the cfo said money station would happen over years but not quarter on the call just now dan showman saying the monetization is reaching a tipping point have a listen. >> well, it's still early. you're monetization efforts appear to be reaching a tipping point. 24% of venmo users have

participated in a monetizable action up from 17% one quarter ago and 13% in may of this year. >> now at the same time, though, melissa, paypal's take rate continues to decline this is the average revenue that paypal makes from each transaction. the company attributing this decline much to p to p that's venmo and saying it would continue the next three-quarters guys while venmo is making money it's also costing more money in terms of take rate back to you. >> thank you dedra dan, you've been active in this name. >> there was three things we focus on on the call and dedra hitpeople them but 2019 guyedens kim in better than consensus the operating margins are important. i think that monetization piece about venmo about peer to peer the kids are using these days that's important because that helps profitability going forward. and ultimately it will assist that take rate because the third

point is about active users. all right. they gained 15 remembers% year over year that's a good number that's where they hit this quarter. you put it together you have a stock relative to expected growth that trades cheap at $25. >> this group overall, the payment space has had a rough rb o, rusch month even though doing nicely for the year. >> i think with paypal -- paypal was $93 stock a month and a half ago traded downed to 75. it's down from the second quarter. in the second quarter 2.77%. and it's lower 2.58 this quarter. but the street expected worse. so it came in better than expectations of 2.52 what's the point uktd see the knee jerk bounce on the back of this without question. valuation wasn't riksds and given what american express said on the back end, maybe there is upside for the names. >> let's stick wegners proctor and gamble set to report before the pel bell options market implying moves what did you see today, dan.

>> this one is about $2.50 in either direction one of the things interesting about proctor it's underperformed the market. staples are one of the worst acting groups in the s&p 500 but the stock on average the last five quarters has moved 3% in line with the implied move. this would be an interesting one, the stock is down 13% from the 52-week highs up 13%ers from the 52-week lows look at the uptrend it broke last month. it seems dpiet the 3.5% dividend yield which is not so exciting anymore with the 10-year yield above 3%, if you have disappointing results and guidance, the stock is going lower, trading at 18 times, you know above a market multiple for low single digits growth not interesting. >> check out the full show for "options action" 5:30 p.m. eastern time still ahead, a wild day for the markets. dow dropping as much as 470 points at the lows with all the crazy market swings, how do you know when

it's safe to buy in guy has three simple rules for spotting a bottom he will break it all done, an expert at spotting a bottom. "fast money" returns (indistinguishable muttering) that was awful. why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh. so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. every call is different, so the only thing that we can do to make sure that we get there safely, and that we leave that scene safely and go home at night, is train. and we train all the time in the fire service. no matter how much we train,

the last thing you want in a disaster is to lose communications. without communications, we have nothing-- people get hurt. when disaster strikes, that is when your communication service can really become your lifeline. ♪ (nicki palmer) we are constantly innovating. from a dedicated lane on our network just for first responders to cell towers on wheels. we can even fly cells in drones so communications stay up. in times of crisis, their calls go through, and they can get their job done. we know what we're getting into when we sign on, to take care of people and make sure everyone comes home safe. that's what my number one goal is. there is a chance that's the last time.

300 miles per hour, that's where i feel normal. i might be crazy but i'm not stupid. having an annuity tells me retirement is protected. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retireyourrisk.org

welcome back to "fast money," the october selloff raging on with stocks now down 5% despite a few single day rallies. how to do you know when the bottom is in for that answer we go to guy adami for a segment we like to call the more you know guy. >> i'm sorry i got the music is playing in -- when i hear music i want to dance, mel sometimes you are able to spot the bottom and by the way i point this out. notice signs it's. they didn't have the aapostrophe. and i helped the crack true crew and put it np but idy grease what's the signs for it being safe to buy? number one, unusual volume what does that mean? if a normal volume let's say is a billion shares throwing out a number and for whatever reason you see 1.5 billion or 2 billion that's unusual volume in my world that might be capitulation you see individual names you could see it in the broader

market number two, fear index i don't like that but it's catchy the vix holds steady what does that mean? tony divider earlier alluded to this if you see the down day ant vix is lower, maybe that's telling you the worst is over. wait for that day. you haven't seen it yet. and bearish sentiment is peaking. well for this you need a chart slide it, earl here is the clarity. look at this investors intelligence percentage of bulls. right now, we are at 51.9% if you are to see this go down to let's say here and bullish numbers get down to about 35% and everybody is now on the other side of the boat, maybe it's safe to get back. back to you. >> what's wrong with him. >> i don't know i don't even know where to begin with that. >> geeky. >> go ahead, karen i'm with you. >> let's it plays out as you

said, all things line up, the bottom came and went and you missed it, can you jump in the next day. >> came and went and you miss to do on that da. >> on that day. >> maybe you did miss that day nobody unless you are dan nathan or brian kelly catches it that day. however maybe it's giving you the all clear sign and maybe this 10-year bull market isn't over maybe that was the pause for the next leg higher. maybe you missed the day process. but you are not looking for the day, you are looking for the month or maybe next three to six months. >> thank you, guy for the more you know and a spelling lesson. coming up. >> more of a syntax. >> surprising asset has emerged as a safe haven. bitcoin. is by the waycoin becoming digital gold plus a sneak peek peek into theed "mad money" studio with jim cramer and he is highlighting a stock you should be buying during the sell i don't have live at the nasdaq mkeart site

in times square. much more fast still ahead place, the xfinity xfi gateway.

and it's strengthened by xfi pods, which plug in to extend the wifi even farther, past anything that stands in its way. ...well almost anything. leave no room behind with xfi pods. simple. easy. awesome. click or visit a retail store today. ♪ they call me mellow yellow. >> gone are the days of wild, wild swings. bitcoin has apparently mellowed

out. is plods steadily along with all the market chaos does it mean bitcoin is digital gold dom breaks it down. >> with all the recent volatility in the stock and bond markets has your head spinning head to one of the least volatile trades over the last month. maybe not least but interesting. bitcoin. bet you wouldn't have thought that the course of the last month you have seen bitcoin trade in range of roughly $$6,200 and $6,800 with a few flashes above or below the range that's tight considering the history of the cryptocurrency with its own volatility profile it's especially tight when you compared with the s&p. maybe nasdaq the s&p tumbled 4% in the last month. commodities like oil have fallen and bitcoin remained stabling. with the green back swinging higher than the cryptocurrency you know all about the talk

about bitcoin being digital gold the yellow metal has rallied while bitcoin remains unchange this compares like apples and oranges but process tos an interesting country o question as trading relationships and replaces between assets get tighter could crypt orr countercy be a viable alternate toef tradeable securities or have enough traders been burned trying to manage the market risk with fidelity now wading into the institutional trading and custody aspects of by the waycoin, that debate over the viability of crypto as a tradeable, investable asset class is heating up melissa. back to you. >> thanks. dom kmu in the numerous. for more upon the lack of volatility could bring let's bring in genesis capital michael more oh o. genesis loaned over $550 million in crypt of currency and billcoin reigns supreme. great to have you back welcome back.

>> thanks for having me. >> in terms of first the aspect of bitcoin being digital gold. there are two aspects. store value and the hedge in the portfolio. do you see that happening. >> one of the positive characteristic that is bitcoin always had is the performed as an uncorrespondented asset as we saw in the charts before bitcoin performs along with the stock market or the fixed market or anything like this it behaves on its own the nature is interesting. whether it's a form of digital gold i think that question is very much an open ended question i do think that investors believe it and use it as a case to sort of buy it but it needs to prove itself to be digital gold i would actually consider it more of a option to become digital gold poot a form of digital gold today. >> so michael, on the lending side, youlend out bitcoin, lending out ethereum are people use going to short bitcoin and then you came out with the report today is there from the lending side

telling you the short something over or we may have bottomed mere. >> of the $130 million of loans active today as of september 30th only about a third was use ford hedging or shorting purposes so we have two thirds of the portfolios not used for anything related to shorting thap petitions one point. 60% of the pofrlt is still bitcoin of the loan portfolio. over 90% of that is not used for shorting that's working capital or arbitage purposes. ethereum only accounts for only 4% of the loan book overall. you could argue that short something not the cause for bitcoin and ethereum price decline we have seen and it's just natural holders actually selling as opposed to naked short guys trying to play the down zblood if it's not the cause though do you feel like your o you're confident that the selling is over? because and what have you seen in terms of your lending that would indicate that maybe the amount that's being borrowed to

short ethereum specificallies has wane over time. >> back in july ethereum accounted for 28% of the loan book we saw decline to about 25% in august from 25 in august down to 4 in september. >> wow dramatic drop. >> a dramatic shift in sort of the portfolio composition between august and sprept september. you could o you can read the tea leaves what that dplies for the bottom same for bitcoin as the priet approached this magical 6,000, 5900 level process. we see short guys closing out positions and buying back in and closing out short positions. we see that on lending side which correlates to some of the price performance you see on the spot side. >> let me ask you more about the lending book that isn't shorting why would someone short bitcoin for a working capital position do they operate the business entirely in bitcoin? i mean it seems like a very risky kind of i don't know

liability to take on. >> sure. i'll give you one example. so once the cme and the cboe futures launched market leaders needed access to the cash market to hedge the price action they are taking on the future side. if you are not long as a futures market maker you can go net short on the cash side which is a more liquid market than the futures market we have actually lent bit skoint arecoin out to future market makers people never playing in the crypt offer sbas before and give access to the cash market to efficiently hedge positions that would be an example of a non-shorting working capital type of a loan. >> lass quick question i'm not asking for you a bitcoin price prediction because you said you won't give it do you think we have seen the lows for the year. >> last time on the show i said we were more likely to see 10,000 in bitcoin than five thousand so far i'm not wrong. >> are you sticking by that. >> i'm sticking by that prediction bus of what we see on the ebbs on flows on the loan

side to have the confidence yoink wrote we see 5 k flat. >> 10,000 this year. >> timingwise probably different question. >> michael thank you. >> thank you for having me. >> genesis capital what do you think of the action so far >> wow, it's boring for a guy who likes volatility and use of the bitcoin volatility it's boring what i can say from my seat we have seen institutional buyers coming in yale, harvard, m.i.t. that's announces ds other institutional buyers coming in. >> up next, final trades

so they say that ai will put the future in the palm of our hands. that's great. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday. that's why you work with watson. i analyzed thousands of contracts and detected a discrepancy. it works with procurement systems you already use to help speed up distribution without slowing down your team. frank, tell fred full force on those french fenders. fine. fine. fantastic. for ai that knows your industry, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job.

time for the final trade dan nagten >> as bk would say xlf is selling. sell it again, everybody. >> brian kelly. >> i like that interesting today, gold was up, even though the dollar was up. i know millennials don't like the dollar but check out gold. >> karen. >> yes gmlp everyone thinks the dividend will be cut but less than people think. >> you know mel you see us every night on tv but there are people behind the scenes far more parn than we are. one of those people max myers our executive producer there he is on the tv. the he is going on to be skeenier executive producer of

squawk box >> yes. >> we wish him nothing but the very best. >> the very best. >> the very best. >> we miss you very dearly. >> max viacom. >> that does it for us here on fast sue you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more, "mad money" you back 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not just to entertain but teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc o