Skip to main content

tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  October 19, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EDT

5:00 am
it is 5:00 a.m here are your five at 5:00 wall street looking to rebound following yesterday's big slide. in china, the economy slowing down in a big way. but the stock market is rallying. tesla ceo elon musk making another big announcement we'll tell you what he said about the model 3. and paypal popping after a blowout quarter. and lotto fever sweeping america. the mega millions jackpot nearing a record $1 billion it's friday, october 19th. "worldwide exchange" begins
5:01 am
right now. ♪ all right. good morning welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. the markets are dancing a bit. hello, i'm brian sullivan. stock futures indicating a slight rise at the open. what a week it's been. we were up 500 one day, down 300 points the next. right now indicated up but anything can happen. it's a wild week the only thing certain is that volatility seems to be back in the market the benchmark ten-year yield, it rose, it paused, a slight uptick, now down again 3.25 is the number you want to watch on this. big stories this week have been in asia. overnight the -- here's the
5:02 am
news, the chinese economy slowed the fastest in a decade, the shanghai rising. hang seng up as well nikkei fell. european markets in the red. italy, weak link down 1.2%. france, cac 40 down three quarters of a percent. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc, so as the name says, we are all over the latest global market action. our team of reporters and anchors are fanned out across the globe. willem marx is in brussels, but let's begin with the slowdown in china. eunice yoon is live in beijing with more on that. >> thank you very much china's economy is growing at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. q3 gdp missed expectations, but
5:03 am
it did put the economy on track to meet its full-year growth target these numbers were anticipated because it's the first time when investors and economists could get a sense as to whether or not the u.s./china trade war is having an impact on the chinese economy. there's some evidence to suggest it's starting. exports for the september quarter were surprisingly strong, but the industrial production has been slowing down it dropped again in september by 5.8% so what's happening is that manufacturers have been front-loading shipments, because they want to make sure they get all of their shipments out before the tariffs come in the factory output has been weaker, which suggests the pop we're seeing in exports is probably only temporary. with all the new tariffs coming into play, a lot of manufacturers have been saying
5:04 am
that they expect that the export growth is probably going to continue to weaken into the fourth quarter some analysts expect it to continue to weaken into the early part of next year and have also cut their economic outlooks because of this. >> we need help, you're the one to help us you gave us these bad numbers, yet the shanghai is up 2.5%. why is the market rallying into what appears to be terrible news >> because there were several top officials today who came out in support of the stock market the vice premiere, president xi jinping's economic czar came out this afternoon in a state media interview saying that he's been following the commentary from foreign institutional investors who he says believe that long-term the selloff is going to be good for the chinese stock
5:05 am
markets. he acknowledged the u.s./china trade war has been impacting sentiment and that the u.s. and china are in touch. he was not the only one talking up the market. it was him, also the central bank governor, the chief of the banking regulator as well as the securities commission. all of these people have been coming out saying the stock market performance which has been doing badly has nothing to do with the economic fundamen l fundamentals >> eunice yoon, thank you very much let's switch -- i love eunice. such an easy laugh europe is bouncing back. let's keep a close eye on italy. the italian market in the red again. the eu raising a red flag on that nation's new budget plan. let's get to willem marx live in brussels what is the biggest one or two problems with this proposed
5:06 am
italian budget >> according to the european commission, it's that they're not doing enough with this budget plan to get their deficit lower. it's something they're concerned about. they're also spending more money and the deviation between what they promise to do in the past and what they're now planning to do is what they've called unprecedented. the distinction between those two original plans and the current plans. that's concerning the european commission they have sent them a formal letter saying sort this out. you guys have nine days until we will formally reject your budget plan if that happens, they have three weeks to try to put forward a revised plan that would never happen in the past since the eurozone crisis. that's now a possibility on the table. it would be the first time the european commission has done that that would potentially have a devastating impact on italian
5:07 am
bond yields. >> our news is always fresh, never frozen like a good burger in the united states you have fresh brexit headlines this morning what's the latest on this ongoing saga >> we had theresa may coming here a couple days ago being told by the european union leadership you have not done enough to try to break this deadlock over northern ireland you and i talked about what that meant in detail yesterday. we heard this morning from the irish prime minister saying that if they don't get brexit talks right, we could see a return to violence in the north of ireland. that's something that nobody says they want we also heard from jeremy hunt, the foreign minister from the uk saying that he thinks the eu does want to strike a deal and then michel barnier, the man negotiating all of this on behalf of the europeans saying he thinks they're 90% of the way there. they need to solve this problem with ireland but they don't want to impose a hard brexit. however we're clearly running out of time.
5:08 am
march 29, 2019, we need ratification of any agreement by 28 different parliaments on this continent. there's a lot of work to be done >> certainly is. you're on it willem marx, thank you let's bring this all back, tie it together and wrap it up with a bow futures here rebounding this morning. the dow falling 300 points yesterday. let's talk about macro strategy. what do you do right now joining us is mike belt from jpmorgan asset management and paul donovan from ubs wealth management mike, first to you asia -- well, china slowing down all these budget concerns in italy. are markets starting to feel it? what are you recommending to clients? seems like a world of volatility has popped in upon us. >> yeah. when we speak to clients we are talking about getting risk close to neutral whereas last year it made sense
5:09 am
to be positioned relatively aggressively overweight in risk, at the moment it makes more sense to be closer to neutral. we're looking at various different ways of doing that getting closer to neutral in terms of a size bias within portfolios, not being overweight small cap stocks and getting close to neutral from a style perspective, not being overweight growth as much as would have been sensible over the last few years >> paul, i love your latest note it's like think of the children, think of the economists. how do you do your job how do you model anything about u.s. growth or global growth or whatever with all these variables and unknowns that are floating around? big ones >> the bottom line is economists shouldn't make forecasts >> that's your job that's like your whole thing -- >> it's not the job. this is a fallacy created by cnbc my job is to predict trends and
5:10 am
direction. whether growth is 3.2, 3.1, who cares, it will be revised any way. we have to get the broad story right. the broad story this year, economists have been right all year this shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. we have a stable slightly above trend growth number for the global economy this year the numbers have come in as predicted. we will slow down a bit next year politicians keep interfering >> i will add fallacy creator to my twitter bio when this segment is over. mike bell, you have to rely on growth estimates, do you not when you look around the world, where do i invest our money? where should we go you have to make some assumptions about where growth will be. >> i think growth at the moment for this -- the rest of this year and probably for most of next year should still hold up okay but the issue is it's about
5:11 am
starting getting more balanced in portfolios. the risks for the economy in the u.s. are starting to rise once you look beyond the end of 2019. as monetary policy continues to tighten in the u.s., you have potential for a fiscal fade unless something changes there, it's about adding some resilience to portfolios so looking at fixed income, for example, the potential of treasuries acting as a edge to equity exposure. >> paul, here's the $1 trillion question about our federal reserve, which is we know our president has been applying pressure indirectly to the federal reserve. do you think jay powell and company will waiver? do you think this pressure, it will work and they will become less hawkish with regard to interest rates will they bend >> no. nor should they. i mean, if we look at where real
5:12 am
fed funds are today, they are pretty much where they were in 2016 when then candidate trump was complaining that fed funds were far too low the u.s. economy is at full employment it's had a deficit financed tax cut. you do not need zero real rates in this environment. you need positive real raids the federal reserve will take us there. >> paul donovan, mike bell, have a wonderful weekend. appreciate your insight. take care. >> thank you now to your big money story, it's got to be tesla elon musk just making another big announcement about the model 3. jackie deangelis, when ever we have the big stories we roll in jackie deangelis >> we have more musk tweets. >> no good ones or bad ones? >> good once musk tweeting last night that tesla is launching a less expensive version of the model 3. he said just released lower cost midrange tesla model 3 and super simple new order page.
5:13 am
it starts at $45,000 and offers a range of 260 miles per charge. that's not the $35,000 base model that was initially promised but that's been delayed until 2019 the new option comes with the same battery pack as the longer range model three but uses fewer cells. musk says the newer version will cost about $35,000 after you factor in federal and state tax credits and the true cost of ownership is closer to 31,000 after the gas savings. you can start ordering the midrange model 3 now and delivery takes 6 to 10 weeks but to be eligible for the full federal tax credit you must take delivery by the end of the year. under u.s. rules the tax credit will be phased out once an automaker sells 200,000 electric cars tesla just hit that mark in july >> another musk tweet. we'll talk about oil in a bit. your big friday stock
5:14 am
stories involve payments, credit cards and cop protection paypal up 6% third quarter profit topping forecasts. venmo their peer to peer payment app had revenue ruising 78%. american express topped forecasts and it is raising its outlook for the year amexciting a stronger economy for a 10% jump in card spending. dow/dupont will be under pressure today the company taking a 4$4.6 billion charge last quarter to write down the value of its agriculture business hit by weak sales in north and south america. we are just getting started on this busy friday. up next, more on the big china slowdown what the ceo of goldman sachs told cnbc that the white house may be getting wrong about
5:15 am
china. and friday night fever the mega millions jackpot nearing $1 billion the drawing is tonight what are your odds frank holland llwi have the friday lotto fever now i'm thinking...i'd like to retire early. let's talk about this when we meet next week. edward jones came to manage a trillion dollars in assets under care by focusing our mind on whatever's on yours.
5:16 am
5:17 am
[ neighing ] ♪ [ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could have taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. plus get $100 back when you bring in an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today. happy friday 5:17 eastern time. let's check on how stocks are performing around the world. u.s. futures are up a bit. we fell 300 points yesterday
5:18 am
the fact we're in the green today may be comfort heading into the weekend in europe, italy is the trouble spot the italian market is in trouble. down another percent in asia, something interesting happened we had some terrible, horrible, no good, very bad chinese economic data that came out showing the economy slowing the post in a decade the shanghai was up 2.5% goldman sachs ceo david solomon saying it's time to hit the reset button with china. here's what he said to cnbc. >> there's an enormous imbalance in the relationship. this is something the administration has been right on in terms of how they articulated it, in terms of china's openness, the way businesses like ours can participate in china, technology transfer all that has to be rebalanced. trade is one component of that >> let's bring in gordon chang author of "the coming collapse
5:19 am
of china." we have a lot to talk about. we're hearing a lot of that language now, forget about trade. forget about trade there's all these other things we need to be careful of would you agree? >> china is an important country. second largest economy -- >> a lot of people there >> 1.4 billion the point about china is that the economy is extremely fragile. if we get these really bad numbers which were worse than what they reported, but put that aside for the moment you have a stock market that is going up yesterday we saw the so-called national team, the banks, pension funds, brokerages all buying shares in the afternoon >> why do you say that >> because it's clear that the remarkable patterns of stock trading are almost identical for the shanghai composite, the tech index, and there are lots of reports about the government buying if we took all four, three or
5:20 am
four of the major markets there, their index charts on an intraday basis, you say they all look the same? >> yes >> that's a little weird >> it's creepy and spooky. and we've seen this before clearly they're supporting the market they also supported the renminbi yesterday. it's going to a point where it's almost going to hit that magic 7 renminbi to 1 u.s. dollar. that is psychological. when it breaks through that all hell can occur the chinesegovernment is spending money to keep the markets and currency stable. at some point they have to let that go. when they let it go people like david solomon are really going to be surprised. >> why do they have to let it go >> eventually they'll run out of money. they say -- >> will they they got a printing press. >> they do their m2 -- >> money supply. not a bmw. >> their money supply is big
5:21 am
when you look at it, their m2 is almost twice as big as ours, though their economy is 66% of ours they've been printing a lot of money. they're running out of capacity to do that at some point when you look at all of this, they don't have as much in the foreign exchange reserves as they claim they claim 3.09 billion after the end of september a lot of that is illiquid. they have forwards in there. falls in foreign exchange reserves >> so you probably know who kyle bass is, hedge fund manager, friend of cnbc he's been saying this for years. it hasn't played out necessarily the way he had thought >> or the way that i thought >> to be fair to both of you, here's the thing, the chinese economy, if you believe what you're saying, it's not fake but has its weaknesses here and there, they can go on like this for a long time, can they not? they can play that role for as long as they want to or the global markets let them. >> they control markets.
5:22 am
they control banks they control the courts. borrowers, lenders that works for a long time a lot longer than i thought. but the point is they'll lose confidence we saw this in 2015 and 2016 where each year you had more than $1 trillion of net capital outflow. the only reason they stabilized it last year is because they went to draconian capital controls, many unannounced right now you have an american president not being soliciting a >> gordon, thank you very much still ahead, weighing the big market risk. the four big factors all investors need to have on your radar. we'll break them down. as we head down, another check of stocks. they're in the green after losterday's big fall
5:23 am
a t to do. we're back after this. valerie: but we worry if we have enough to last. ♪ cal: ellen, our certified financial planner™ professional, helps us manage our cash flow and plan for the unexpected. valerie: her experience and training gave us the courage to go for it. it's our "confident forever plan"... cal: ...and it's all possible with a cfp® professional. find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org. you mighyour joints...ng for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally discovered in jellyfish, prevagen has been shown in clinical trials to improve short-term memory. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.
5:24 am
so they say that ai will put the future in the palm of our hands. that's great. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday. that's why you work with watson. i analyzed thousands of contracts and detected a discrepancy. it works with procurement systems you already use to help speed up distribution without slowing down your team. frank, tell fred full force on those french fenders. fine. fine. fantastic. for ai that knows your industry, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job. hello! i am proud of you, my man. making simple, smart cash back choices... with quicksilver from capital one. you're earning unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase, everywhere. like on that new laptop. quicksilver keeps things simple, gary. and smart, like you! and i like that. i guess i am pretty smart. don't let that go to your head, gary. what's in your wallet?
5:25 am
♪ all right. welcome back 5:25 about 40 degrees in new york city let's check the other top headlines. phillip mena has more on a couple of scary stories out of the military >> that's right. good morning hope has all but faded that the missing saudi journalist is still alive. president trump acknowledged
5:26 am
that it appears jamal khashoggi is dead but he says he is waiting until the saudi investigation wraps up before making an official statement he said if saudi is found to be involved in the disappearance there will be very severe consequences breaking overnight, an mh-60 seahawk helicopter crashed on board the aircraft carrier "uss ronald reagan. the navy said several people were injured but none of the injuries are thought to be life threatening. the "uss ronald reagan" remains mission capable and has resumed flight operations. and a deadly insider attack nearly took the life of the top u.s. commander in afghanistan on thursday general scott miller escaped unhurt but asenior afghan official was killed when a member of an afghan security team turned his gun on american and afghan officials as they were concluding a high-level meeting. the shooter was killed the taliban has claimed responsibility >> that is a scary story
5:27 am
thank you very much. up next, what that news around jamal khashoggi means for the world of oil and we have an upgrade on a dow component, a little company o lled disney. whis saying what about an important stock. important stock. stick around 10... 9... guidance is internal. 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1... ♪ take your razor, yup. up and down, never side to side, shaquem, you got it? come on stay focused. hard work baby, it gonna pay off.
5:28 am
5:29 am
bouncing back on a friday. wall street pointing to a higher open this morning following yesterday's 300-point tumble
5:30 am
why is oil suddenly down even as tensions are up? are you feeling lucky? mega millions jackpot nearing $1 billion. we'll break down your odds of a gigantic pay day as "worldwide exchange" rolls on ♪ mowe might be over $1 billin on that lotto jackpot. $1 billion thank you for being with us on cnbc i'm brian sullivan let's kick off the second half of the show. jackie deangelis has the news for us if you won the lottery, what would you do >> at 6:00, you and i need to run out and get a ticket >> i got mine.
5:31 am
>> really? you're not sharing >> lunch on me >> thanks. here's what's leading cnbc right now. china hits the skids the world's second biggest economy posting its slowest growth rate in nearly a decade and tesla's elon musk making another big announcement on twitter, this time a new car musk tweeting out the details of a lower cost midrange tesla model 3. musk says the new vehicle will cost $35,000 after federal and state tax rebates in california. shares of paypal seeing a pop in the premarket, this after the company posted better than expected third quarter results the company seeing a surge in payment volume in its venmo app. brian, you know, i'm not sure the first thing i'll do, but i'll buy you a sandwich. >> when i said buy lunch, i meant for the world. for everybody. >> yes
5:32 am
>> not just jackie deangelis i'd buy everyone lunch >> i'll buy you a turkey sandwich >> thank you very much we'll see you in a bit here's how your money and investments look right now stock features a s futures ap volatility, i think it's fair to say is back. in the bond market seeing some buying bond yields coming down to 3.17%. if you went to bed before the market move and you saw the chinese data and the economy slowing down, you would say wow, terrible day for the chinese stock market you're wrong like betting on the cardinals last night like i would know that shanghai market up 2.5%. apparently the market coming in, big buying by the centralized government there italy in europe is the big
5:33 am
problem. let's talk more about the markets, money and how to make money off of money joining us is senior market analyst at fx street welcome. >> good morning. >> our u.s. treasury did not label klechina a currency manipulator. i will ask you, is china a currency manipulator >> no by the standards the government has to follow set by congress, they are no manipulating the currency. the key point there is whether or not they're intervening in the market to obtain an advantage from their currency. >> sounds like manipulation, just a fancy way to say it. >> it is, but the key is for advantage in trade that would mean they're manipulating to move the yuan lower against the dollar if anything, they're probably supporting it a bit. the yuan is a managed currency it trades on a band around a mid
5:34 am
point fixed by the chinese yesterday it was 6.25% >> but there is a tiny sliver that trades sort of -- what they call the offshore yuan, cnh, not cny, but free floats a bit >> what happened there is the chinese back in '16 and the beginning of 2017, they intervened in that market because there was too much speculative excess so people have calmed down in that market. it's not really moving as a free currency if the chinese yuan on the mainland was traded freely, it would probably be considerably lower against the dollar than it actually is. that's a clear sign they're not letting it go where it might looking for trade advantage. so they're not a currency manipulator. if they wanted to use the yu yuan -- >> maybe they are but the other way. they're not weakening their currency to gain a benefit for
5:35 am
cheap everer exports mitigatinge of the negative or cost inflation from the tariffs >> you are correct that's what they're doing. remember the trade manipulation issue is one from the united states point of view that has to do with trade advantage. the way to get a trade advantage if you're moving currency is to make it weaker so your exports are cheaper. they're not doing that it is not a two-way street it's not just a definition of manipulation >> 99% of our audience probably doesn't trade china's currency on a daily basis >> you really can't. >> so here's the thing if the chinese currency were to trade, free float, no government intervention, no band, no support, no nothing as they say, would it be 7.5 to $1, or 8 yuan to 1 dollar? >> it's hard to tell i would think at least 8 to 1. >> you think so. >> i do.
5:36 am
the dispute with china is one that in my view the chinese will have to settle towards the benefit of the united states >> meaning what? >> they're going to have to loosen some of their markets and stop some of the intellectual issues, intellectual property issues i think the accusations are accurate and correct once they do that they have to find a way to use their own economy to support their own industrial base. they have not done that successfully >> we learned this in the united states in the early 1900s. >> that's correct. >> that type of shift takes decades. >> that is correct >> generations >> it also takes an attitude to permit and view the growth of a middle class which is where you're looking for the consumption to come from there are certain questions about whether or not this is actually something which the chinese government is comfortable with those lead to political
5:37 am
questions, because a large active and moneyed middle class is one which tens to look for expressions outside of consumption. >> we did not even get to the euro, we'll invite you back on soon to talk about the euro and the risk around that currency. >> that is an interesting proposition. >> we'll see you soon. >> thank you very much >> thank you for coming in believe it or not the analyst community is active on a friday morning two big calls crossing apple, wedbush initiating coverage on apple with an outperform the firm going bullish on the next generation of iphones and a $310 price target on the stock apple at 218 so wedbush sees more than $90 a share in upside on apple i don't know if that's the most bullish call on apple out there.
5:38 am
it's got to be close barclays upgrading disney to overweight they like the current multiple compared to its peers. they upped the price target to $130 from $105 to some other big stock stories. shares of skechers are soaring the company posting strong profits topping analyst estimates. skechers also offering upbeat guidance and earnings. aig shares are down. the company saying they expect catastrophe losses to be a catastrophe. aig adding to the losses because of several weather events, ie typhoons and a hurricane in japan and hurricane florence here in the united states. bank ozk falling in a big way, formerly the bank of the ozarks. the abank missing on the top an bottom lines wow. bank of the ozarks, not good down nearly 20%.
5:39 am
up next, mega mania. lottery fever is gripping the nation the mega millions lottery is nearing $1 billion frank holland is live at a 7-eleven in new jersey >> hopefully not long odds of me winning. we're at a convenience store where later on we expect people to be playing the mega millions. we'll have some fun. we'll show you what your odds are of winning and break down how rich you would really be if you did.
5:40 am
5:41 am
5:42 am
now to the story that will have everybody in the office talking today. the mega millions drawing is tonight. nearly $1 billion, maybe more b the time the drawing takes place. lotto fever is sweeping the nation and sweeping a 7-eleven nearby because frank holland is there the lines are not there yet but they're coming >> not yet actually there's one guy here. he might be buying a lottery ticket >> i am. >> he just said yes, he is everybody kind of has mega millions fever this jackpot keeps growing, it is nearing $1 billion right now it's 970 million that's huge. it may seem pretty easy to pick
5:43 am
the numbers. you have to pick a number from 1 to 70 for the first five and then 1 to 25 for the mega millions one you have a chance of about 1 in 302 million of doing it right and getting the whole jackpot. easier to get one of those small jackpots but don't you really want the big one? here's the thing you have a better chance of getting drafted to play in the nba, the nfl or major league baseball than getting all these numbers right. crazy odds right there i think everybody is excited about the possibility of being a billionaire. the question is what would you do if you won it and how much would you really get? it's 970 million you got to think, you won't take the installments, you want all the money. that would break down to about 548 million. after taxes that's about 300 million. only 300 million some would say.
5:44 am
i wouldn't say that. that's a lot of money. think about how much money that is it wouldn't make you one of the richest people in the world, not a jeff bezos type, but a nice chunk of change if you win we expect a lot of people to be lining up. i see somebody behind me here, i think he's thinking about getting that money we'll follow this story all day. we'll also follow if it does turn out to be a billion dollar jackpot. >> i wonder, everybody takes the lump sum, i get it they're afraid they won't get it maybe the government goes out of business i think you get more money if you take the installments. nobody wants that. that's hiwhy 60% of lottery winners go bankrupt. be safe, be boring >> don't you want everything right now? invest it yourself >> it's like me at a shony's
5:45 am
buff buffet, i want everything now. this high. share the wealth let's find out what else you will be talking about today. jackie deangelis has the top trending stories did you buy a ticket >> i have not. >> are you going to? >> i am. i saw a report regarding the odds, you have a better chance of becoming president of the united states. >> what would you do if you won the lottery and you were the president of the united states >> that's a conversation for another hour let's get to those headlines can tissue be sexist some kleenex customers say yes, now the folks at kleenex are branding the man-sized kleenex to extra large in response to some customer complaints the new branding will roll out in the uk. they'll start it there >> i love that some customer complaints does hungry-man change its name
5:46 am
to hungry thing? "elle" magazine is apologizing. the u.s. account tweeted kim kardashian and kanye west are splitting up and it included a photo of the couple and a link. the headline was false when users colle s clicked on t, they were redirected to a site where to vote. "elle" magazine said we're sorry. >> that's just lying lying. >> even if the intent was good >> is there good intent? >> to get people to vote >> the intent was to get people to read their website or their instagram. it was to get people to click. >> clicks are good. >> clicks is money >> clicks are good for business. jackie, thank you very much. we'll see you in a bit to the sports world. the red sox of boston are heading back to the world series sox beat the astros in game five of the alcs. they took an early lead over houston and nerver looked back.
5:47 am
the world series kicks off on tuesday. a boston/l.a. world series, fairly epic. go brewers as well pressure mounting on saudi arabia following the disappearance and likely killing of a saudi journalist. helima croft joins us ahead. and today's rbi. it has to do with a major anniversary today and a staggering stat around what would happen if the market fell like it did in '87 you have to hear this number you'll be talking about it all day long
5:48 am
5:49 am
there are so many toothpastes out there which one should i use? choose one that takes care of your gums and enamel. crest gum & enamel repair cleans below the gum line and helps repair weakened enamel. gum & enamel repair, from crest. welcome back something interesting is happening in the oil and gas markets. despite the ratcheting up of tensions around the disappearance of jamal khashoggi and some threats back and forth,
5:50 am
the price of oil has fallen. it's up a bit today. wti is back below 79 a barrel. helima, is that because as much as the back and forth, the terrible story around khashoggi, the threats by saudi arabia using oil as a political weapon, is it that envin toinventories o high, that it won't matter yet >> it won't matter yet there are fears weighing on the market, but the saudi oil minister also walked back the oil weapon threat. i don't think people now are believing saudi will take 3 million barrels off the market we have to see how this story plays out. right now people are focused on the demand side. >> rising rates, cooling stock market not good for demand. >> also the whole macro selloff. that is weighing as we get further out, get a
5:51 am
turnaround, i think then we'll look at fundamental issues right now we're in the negative spot >> back to the saudi picture for one second i heard people say look the president is taking iran on. he doesn't want to take saudi arabia on, too even though the situation is obviously gruesome and horrific. >> also he invested a lot of political capital in mohammad bin salman a a leader. so people in the white house are reluctant to walk away from this leader both sides of the aisle are not letting this go. you had congress send letters to the white house triggering the magnitsky act. this will not go away. >> you know who has got to be loving this? iran >> the iranians have done nothing. they're letting this situation play out and standing on the sidelines and signaling you think we're the ones in the region causing trouble this will be interesting the white house will try to
5:52 am
pivot focus back to iran but saudi will linger. >> if we pivoted a little towards iran, do you think the sanctions would ease up at all >> here's the interesting process. people keep talking about waivers. it's not the waivers, you need a significant reduction. some countries will get the exemptions, but you have to be showing you made a significant reduction to get one >> some data is showing iran is still exporting their oil. they'll send it to -- >> to where, we don't know >> the stories are coming up about these ghost ships. the enforcement effort has not started yet. when you talk to u.s. officials they say we learned a lot from north korea enforcement, stopping ship to ship transfers. we're ready for this we're prepared to crack down hard. >> but could that backfire to jackie's point, if the exports for iran continue, these ships turn off their gps, they're not actually run by
5:53 am
ghosts, i hope, if they start selling on the black market, how do you sell on the black market anything you lower the price. take my oil, it's 40 bucks a barrel take it. >> that's the issue. they can off every the barroffeh barrels, but if you want to do business with the u.s. and they catch you taking it, you get sanctioned >> it will get sticky. >> yeah. >> i guess the sanctions could last forever, but that's unlikely so how does it play out? >> there are 12 conditions that pompeo laid out for reducing sanctions. right now we don't see signs of them backing off we have to see how things play out in the middle east, but right now we have not altered our policy >> what is your best guess how does it all play out >> it terms of the khashoggi incident >> yes
5:54 am
we have the horrible personal side of the story. >> yes there's a missing journalist, it's horrible, but there's also a massive geopolitical side. >> right now you'll look at a serious rift between u.s./saudi relations. the white house will try to maintain strong ties but the u.s. is serious. if that tape emerges in terms of anything -- telling people really what happened and it matches what the story is, congress will not back off >> a lot of people may not realize, khashoggi was a u.s. resident u.s. resident. a u.s. resident who walked into his original country's consulate and never came out >> and he's a "washington post" writer he was a critic of mohammad bin salman but a respectful critic he had an enormous network >> mbs, i never met the man. i'm sure you have. they have this finance conference, which now no one is going to cnbc backed out as well.
5:55 am
he's trying to promote investment into saudi arabia, vision 202330 suddenly he locks people up in the ritz carlton now we don't know if he's behind this but his country is involved >> it raises questions on whether this man was visionary at all, whether he can transform saudi arabia we are at a low point with saudi relations not seen since september 11th >> let's find out what's coming up on squawk squaw"squawk box. >> we will continue on about that issue with khashoggi. oil prices also earnings alert. we have the cfo of procter & gamble joining us in a bit and the ceo of snap-on tools this is always a conversation we like to have we have dr. scott gottlieb, the
5:56 am
fda missioner, we will talk about the problem of kids and vaping those are a couple things on tap. >> as the father of a teen, thank you. juuling is taking over it's everywhere. >> thank you let's wrap it up with the morning rbi. this will get your attention 31 years ago today there was panic on wall street today is the anniversary of the single biggest percentage drop day ever it was known as black money. at current prices, if the dow had a similar day, we would fall 5,583 points that's right if the dow did today what it did on that monday, in 1987, it would be 5,500-point drop. can you imagine what would happen to bob pisani's tie
5:57 am
the power of percentages it's math. have a great weekend quk x"next ♪ lean on me, when you're not strong ♪ ♪ and i'll be your friend ♪ ♪ i'll help you carry on ♪ ♪ lean on me.
5:58 am
[ neighing ] ♪ [ sigh ] it's bring your own phone, not pony. so i could have taken the bus? yeah. bring your phone. switch your carrier. save hundreds a year with xfinity mobile. plus get $100 back when you bring in an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today.
5:59 am
good morning breaking overnight, china posted its weakest gdp growth since the financial crisis but stock there's are soaring after officials announced new measures to prop up the stock market. wouldn't that be nice to be able to do that elon musk making headlines with a tweet this time announcing a new midrange model 3. and paypal shares are soaring after the company posted a big earnings beat and a huge jump in transactions on venmo. big on colleges. it's friday october 19, 2018
6:00 am
"squawk box" begins now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equity futures. it's friday. we have had two wild weeks where we have been watching things this morning you will see the dow futures are indicated up by 33 points. s&p up by 3 1/2. nasdaq up by 18. anything could happen. big losses that we saw yesterday with the dow off 327 points. the s&p down by over 40. nasdaq lower yesterday by 157. even with those losses from yesterday, you are still looking at the dow and s&p up for the week the nasdaq just below break even wow. we will talk about what'

101 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on