happens to the stock afterwards, because like -- what you saw this week with netflix and adobe is so interesting. because to me that means that earnings don't really matter. >> the market. >> especially with the macrodrivers. >> on to next week that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square mels aye looer tim seymour, brian kelly and dan nathan tonight on fast, the fate of the tech trade hangs in the balance as some big names get ready to report earnings next woke and one charter thinks there is more trouble ahead. plus the earnings call heard around wall street the ceo of cleveland cliffs attacking analysts and one of the craziest calls we have heard. we tell you what he said that had shareholders fleeing the stock. but first starting off with with another wild week. the dow making triple digit

moves and it roller coaster of eejss then up, up big and down the dow managed to end in the green. snapping the three-week losing streak check out the big movers home depot morgan stanley and united with while swings we thought it's the perfect time to you a play america's favorite game trade it or fade it since guy is not here i'm not going to explain the rules. how is that. >> kick it off. >> that's unusual. >> we do this without guy. >> trade it or fade it. >> home depot down 6% this week. tim. >> trade that thing. bottom line is i think hemidepot is interest rate sensitive i don't thinks it we have the mortgage rates at 2011 highs the reality is this is the ultimate consumer discretionary play in fact the opposite consumers never has been better. housing stock is lower they stay in homes not enough supply out. and spending money on homes. home prices aren't falling but sales are. while mortgage rates go higher >> how are they paying for the

re-dos i agreed with you in the last cycle. but this times it seems the home equity lone will loans are going up the reason how they pay for it is going up not at much in the past fade it. >> i think they have jobs. the wages are going higher the asset value underlying which means they can tap into home equity they may be paying more on the loan i don't think people taking out the equity enlean loans they tlink about it because they get cash and spend it on the houses. >> the one thing you worry about is the home price index year or year is rolling out process we shaw that the last couple housing issues preponderate rate of change is rolling over. then you couple in everything else, maybe the consumer has more money in their pocket but things cost more because of inflation at this point. >> the stocks are -- >> dan they are ganging up on me. >> i hope you have something to say. >> everything these guys said

reflect the sentiment of the move from you look where it bottomed out at 170 back in march or april you are looking at a stock that actually trading at a market multiple obviously a premiere retail name and i think at this rate time you get a chance to buy. give it two days i think fade it little longer then trade it back in the margins. >> i agree there is a $10 below the support knit but everything is getting hit you say might not be a housing crisis all the housing stocks are in crisis right now. >> this isn't housing stock. this is consumer discretionary play. >> it trades like one. >> i think the issue with home depot is it's thrown in that basket but to me the home retailers don't vermont same issue as big box. don't have the overstorying. they are specialized they have the professional services. >> you don't ever trade it like a home builder stocks. >> right now this is the first time in the cycle that home depot traded with the builders as far as i can remember always traded as a retailer

servicing the home builders. >> the troubling thing is how quickly the stock dropped. home builders have been making new lows for months. the fact it joined the party that's curious. >> morgan stanley is the next stock. in week up 7%. steve grasso. >> easy. this whole space has a headwind. down 11% year to date. even with good news the entire space -- sorry, fade it. fade it. >> you can't -- the can't rally the space this should be optimum time for these guys and the rest of the field you can't trade it you can't trade it tough fade it. >> okay. but i know i'm not getting dan's support but i tried it and that's the point the sentiment in the sector so poor. morgan stanley announced numbers yes fee income compression but the bfl is the valuation is interesting. i think the banks if we are in the environment if we are concerned about a stronger economy with higher interest rates. i don't like the chart nothing about it other than the valuation. the sentiment is so poor right now that suddenly the guys are going out of business with the

best balance sheet and best capital return in years. >> i don't think the chart is bad if you are talking short term it held up relatively well with everything else in the market this week. we had the bounce. now you know where the stop it risk, reward trade. >> i see no reason to trade it. >> that means fade it. >> fade it hoping over here keeping talking about how this cycle is turning this is great for them and they go lower it had a pop after earnings after sentiment was so poor and there were things to pick out in the results. but i don't get why you have to stick your toe in the water with the these names. >> do you remember the life cereal medication. once we get to the stock dan likes. we say mikey likes it. >> mikey suffered an unfortunate fate. >> pop rocks. >> urban legend. >> ibm, it was down 8% this woke bk. >> me?

mikey likes it mikey likes it on this one or you trade it so i know it's been down, yes but it got hit with the market to me in this environment you want to look for i had owe sin kratic growth. they have with watts, blockchain it's not enough but you have to believe in the turn around story. i like that here you trade it. >> i had owe sin kratic growth means no growth. you are -- you are triend to find the ideaio sin krat being growth you i think ibm is a turn around story that continues to try to turn the valuation -- i would argue the valuation isn't cheap especially for a company -- not -- nothing duplicitous here but they engineered earnings five years and i'm not sure it was real i would stay away from this name. >> watson, no offense blockchain it's a rounding error. >> timing. >> fade it. >> everywhere they need to to be can't get there quick enough the ship is too big.

fade. >> don't you acknowledge that watson and blockchain are such a tiny part of revenues that it can't turn the ship around. >> i think it can turn the ship around not today. >> when you extrapolate the growth of those businesses at what point does that make impact in terms of percentage on revenue. >> i think if you look at a stock coming down like this you look back and look where the support is you talk about a turn around story you have to -- that's what investing is we don't have all the information. you have to extrapolate this for me i'd absolutely be in this. >> last but not least. united airlines up 9%. dan nathan. >> yeah, 9% on the week up 30% on the year. massively outperformed almost every name in the space. i'm fading it. let me tell you why. >> oh i was excited. >> you are going to fade it. >> see whatty there. here is the deal the rest of the group acts so badly. look at at the tima, look at american, massive underperformance tim you have been right on the name many from a trading

perspective i don't know what the catalyst to have it break out to new highs to me you have room to trade it down near the 80 level or something like that. i'm not sure you buy it here. >> where dan is going with this is that these have been great trading stocks looking at united ob departmenta you've had 10 to times frayed factual basis north of 15 trading ranges up or down the last six months. with the move higher they found ways to disappoint multiple times mr. munoz could do that again even though i like the sector. i'm comfortable with valuations here as far as i'm concerned people think airlines they raise prices because of higher oil prices i think that's actually a good thing. giving pricing power in a difficult time airlines. >> for me it's a fade. without a doubt. absolutely look at this thing up against $907 you had the rally np now take the overall market not fantastic no mace i want to be. >> i would fade that and buy spirit switch it and my own game. >> trade it or fade it. >> yeah. >> three games in one. >> can't take it back.

>> true a tur ducken the s&p 50 oh may have reached key levels here a wild week for the broader markets. and maybe a comeback could be ahead ahead. grasso heads to the plasma to take us off the charts. >> this is a huge game of trade or fade. let's look at the charts and see what they say. so this is the 200 -day moving average. the market told us that the 200-day moving average is the most important for us to focus on back here when we had the big soloff about 11% move. this move was a 7% move. but we only broke 200-day moving average for one day. and closed below it for one day. same thing in march. here we've been battling with it for about five days. the more you battle with it one or two things happen either weakens it or strengthenens it i think it's weakening i think we go lower from here. to start but i i think we rally into year end because i battle

seasonality of biblicalle proergs. hedge fund behind the eight ball they need to to buy stocks into the close of the year. i think we see this level again, the 2710 level, the recent low if you want to lock in profits if we break the 200 had-day moving average which is 2768 you can lock it in and play for bounce off this. if this level doesn't hold kiss your kids don't go home. >> i've got a question i know we are talking about technicals here but the argument that hedge funds who underperformed have to kmas into year end wouldn't this be the chance to outperform if the market is going lower and they short the market or actually push it lower because that's the mandate. the mandate is to make money and good and bad marketsen and it's the better way to outperform. >> good questioned but you know as well as i lo are do long short hedge funds the longs hurt more than the shorts help. they always lean long, the majorities much hedge funds even if the market goes down and they short the market their longs

still hit them harder than the shorts will help testimony. >> 2710 do to the zoun downside. in that environment what -- what do you see leading the way >> i think the market has shone that you can't rally substantively higher without large cap tech you have to see that netflix indicator. you have to see the amazon netflix, googles facebook is a different entity unto itself. but you have to see the majorities of fangs move higher for the overall market to move high sfleer thanks for that grass ooh rowe he will main make his way. tech stocks crushed this months and on the heels of the biggest week of earnings for the sector we tell you how bad it could g get. car trouble at ford. one trader betting the stock is in reverse and letter megamillions mad knit big prize up to $1.0 billion in case you don't win, just in case the traders have four jackpot stocks to help you get

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welcome back to "fast money" talk about ceo omg in one of the strangest earnings calls wall street has ever heard, the ceo of cleveland cliffs went on a rant against analysts and short sellers. >> you are a disaster. you are an embarrassment to your parents. with this being said, we are going to use money to reward the long-term shareholders so if the stock continues to go down based on this kids that play with computers and somebody else's money we are going to buy back stock we are going to screw this guy badly that i don't believe they will be able to resign you will have to commit suicide so we are going to screw this guy badly that it will be fun to watch. that will be my first priority

other than to want priorities of paying down hbi and paying down debt you are. >> later he defended his action saying he would do it all over again. >> we were talking about it today, clear because the stock is down. >> you are talking about today i'm talking about the entire story. you are trying to talk about today. i'm trying to talk about the story. >> we are talking about the conference call like this. >> ceos are cooky cutter people they like to say the same things the same for you guys to say the same things on air and life it good i'm different. you like it, great process you don't like it, great. >> okay. the stock ended down about 4% today. off the lows of the day. he sounds similar to maybe an elon musk somebody who doesn't care about convention and what is expected of a ceo to do what do you think, tim. >> did he tell me i was an embarrassment to my parents. >> not the first time. >> come on so first of all this stock had

been an embarrassment to the parents for three or four years. the balance sheet out of control. totally levered at the peak of the cries crisis chasing growth, growth and almost exploded. if shareholders question whether people are going after the stock and questioning whether in a good environment they continue to deliver free cash flow i don't blame them but they are delivering cash flow they are initiated dividend for the first time in i don't know how long and the iron ore prices are near the top of the range in years. they are near on a relative basis all time highs the company better be making money in this environment. i'm not sure unless you believe that growth is going down and that actually you want to be tied to levered plays through global growth that's what the company is if you think it goes down you might want to short it's had a great run. >> 53%. >> when they were making comparisons to elon musk this is much worse than elon musk did on the conference call. this was terrible. terrible it would be fun to watch you

have to commit suicide this is a terrible -- terrible actions by a ceo. >> sop some of it is understandable but how he expressed himself steps over the line. >> usually guys avoid this it's not a drastically high shortage on the name at 16%, not a crazy. but i think with the performance that it's had year to date you are okay shorting the stock. >> you know it's interesting how it ended it didn't end on the lows. you had the massive selloff a little bit of a rebound. i think it's certainly you know where your stop out is that's today's low i'm not all that excited about a ceo who talks that way certainly understand frustration. but i would want a ceo a little more reserved. >> well, market history shows people acting this way in in charge of companies with boards and shareholders it doesn't end well for them. this was a little bit of unhinged this is your president's america. this is what people. >> how did you wind up tying it back to that.

>> just. >> to you. >> i could tie it back to trump in three sentences >> and no shame about it this is not stuff that people used to do. >> getting back to the shorts here you had mentioned 16% short interest in the stock. so look at wall street's most hated stocks there are a lot and they have higher percentages in terms of shorts tesla 25% of the flow shoet. under armour discover, mattel and then you see cleveland cliffs also making the list. it has been a good month for shorts with under armour down 14%. mattel down 9. tesla down 2 which ones of these stocks would you maybe venture a short on >> i'm in the sure i'd venture a short necessarily and owl of those. the one thing i say about in what everybody is missing shorts aren't a bad thing because they have to cover so when the stock goes down that's the buy support i mean this is just nafrl market action so i wouldn't -- i don't get that upset if people are short the stock. >> i think tesla might be worth a gamble on the short side. >> on the short side. >> i think there's been a lot of people saying hey maybe it's run

the course to the downside i'm not one of those people. i think you have a lot of room to the downside in this one. it's dangerous don't get me wrong. all shorts are dangerous but injury you are getting another shot in tesla. >> well the companies up there the most broken are mattel and under armour knows are the companies i think -- under armour more debatable. but you could make the argument that they have had turnover in the c. suite that the growth has run into a wall at a time the competitors have gotten strong mattel is a story that was playing the bottom and it was a terrible call. i do think that a lot of the worst is priced into the name. injury it actually is not cheap. but a lot of bad news has been priced in on the toy sector and mattel is one place i might nibl. >> a piggy back on stevelabts. tesla is interesting could set up similar to netflix. we had the analyst coming out not particularly positive on the stock marylandle three could be a. and if you they pop off capital

you sell. >> does that mean net flex rallied offer the low. >> gapped up afterwards and gave it all become back if you can get a pop off a name like that off news we expect that's when you lay the short out. >> for more on cleveland cliffs and the ceos epic rant head over to cnbc.com. i'm melissa lee. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide in the meantime here is what's coming up on fast. >> i'm so excited. i'm so excited i'm so -- scared. >> that's how investors are feeling heading into the biggest week for tech earnings this season we will tell what you has one of the traders so nervous plus -- that's what the chart master is saying about mcdonald's stock. when he breaks down the charts you might be loving the mena too. there is much more "fast money" after this

welcome back to "fast money. it's megamillions madness with the jackpot jumping into record $1.0 billion today for a closer look into the lottery fever let's get to frank in hackensack, new jersey frank. >> good afternoon, guys. each of the tickets gives you a 1 in 302 million chance of wing the billion dollar jackpot if you think the jangts are getting bigger you're right. we explain why look at the ticket about a year ago megamillions changed the matrix before the first range there was a range of 1 to 70 the last megaball number a range of 1 to 15 now a range of 1 to 25 trmgts you have a better chance of winning the smaller prize but

the odds of winning the big jackpot have gotten longer to put it in perspective right now you have a better chance of maerpg aler, a 1 in 215 chance than winning the megamillions you have a better kmans of getting struck by lightning than winning the megamillions that's a one in a million chance get this you fooul have a better chance of being elected the president of the united states that's true. so think about it. if you win you are lucky enough to win you are going to take that sump sum. that's about $565 million after taxes. about 396 million. what could you do with it if you play the markets who here is how much of the biggest companies that you could get if you want a piece of amazon you could have get this, 0.04 from bog 2 from bowing or .5% of starbucks if you buy that they'd get your name right on your cup of coffee. back to you. >> i would think so.

now frank in your hand that's your actual -- that's your ticket, right. this is my real ticket i bought a few i'm not a lottery person but i did. >> did you pick the numbers or have them random generated you said before the odds are better if randomly generated >> the lottery people told me they are better if you get enemy randomly generated they said most winners do the quick pick dy the quick pick because i i want to get the billion dollars. >> good luck, frank. >> thank you. >> frank holland in hackensack unfortunately we can't be lottery winners if not you're traders bring you the jackpot stocks to make you a billionaire. s let's kick-off with tim. >> i don't think the up sid is gallow gilead as much as the megamillions i think the valuation is clean gilead be biotech, come on go for it zbras o. >> apple is there a better lottery win/winner trade like

value when you need value. trades like growth looking for growth. >> bk. >> kwhoe i think of lottery ticket stocks. has a lot of room to the up side baidu internet stock. >> bk you played it wrong. go something bombed out snap i think you see $2 down $10 up side. >> hope you are are right. >> here on fast you guys play megabucks or whatever it is. go loduck "options action" starts right after the break ♪ what you see ♪

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injuries hey there, live at the nasdaq market site on this expiration friday. the guys getting ready and while they do that here is what's coming up in the show >> announcer: investors anxiously await to see if tech earnings could save the rally. but dan nathan says watch out. another wreck could be coming he will tell how to protect yourself plus -- >> food fight. >> mcdonald's has been eating the competition's lunch the last few months and the chart master says the golden arches like prime