tv Squawk on the Street CNBC October 22, 2018 9:00am-11:00am EDT
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technology to shift in comers and some of the technology stocks, ultimately, this is not like the internet bubble when you look at the earnings that are coming out and at the top line revenue, it is impre impressive stuff >> rick is a tesla fan >> thanks. >> make sure you join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i am carl quintanilla with david faber and jim cramer futures are capped by a ged number by friday the best day for china's stocks in three years as xi vows
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unwaivering support for the private sector china stock bounced, that rally at the open. dispute from china is far from over change at the top of the board of cbs the search is still of course for a permanent ceo at the company. >> the busiest week of earnings, is the picture strong or weak? we have a couple of different ways to look at those numbers. stocks on the rise around the globe fuelled by this rally in china and shanghai over night. oth offset the impact of u.s. tariffs. this typically don't happen when global markets are going up. >> it is very funny last night of the tragic lost of the eagles
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and i see china tapped in and futures are down huge. we have become, when italy is down and greece, we are now china. i this i it -- think it is real funny because the china can do what they want wait a second guys, it is not how to trade, it is well-transcended trade at this point. guys, we don't want you to be a great nation the chinese have to get pressure off the stock market too many wealthy people -- they got a weird country over there it is like russia in 1916. they got this elite group of people all whom invested in the stock markets. >> really? >> what engel says it is a sack of potatoes. >> you are not implying they are
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a year away from evolution you are not? >> oh, he's giving us his defending post >> when you get pete navarro off flying, he's not talking about the earnings per share of procter & gamble >> i am waiting for mr. president. please tear down that wall, this time is the chinese wall i do think there is much more to it than trade now. when larry kudlow comes out, they're doing nothing. when larry uses that term, he drops it with all do respect stuff. >> he's going full spanish >> wilbur with us last week, wilbur ross saying the g-20 meeting is not a trade meeting plating expectations for that.
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>> wilbur ross is a business person when he did that, when he said that, that to me was like okay, he shifted over to navarro campus look, we are done with it. >> i hope that does not involve -- >> they're letting us know there were no plans. that seems to change you got to be up to date >> they're doing it on friday. you and i discussed it to the point of the ones who are making headlines this morning are certainly not positive in terms of any hope for it >> you read the conference call. we are pulling out of china as fast as we can don't worry, we are getting out. i mean it is almost as if they
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are seating at the chinese market we know we are not going to sell much in china. we need to get the heck out of china and as fast as possible. you want to be on the right side of this president. the elites like the prc, well, who are the elites i don't want to get to the ma mainstream because it is too rhetorical mr. president, we are out. >> well, it is not good for sales growth >> no, it is not and that's why a lot of these stocks are going down i thought honeywell quarter were terrific >> i think we are too deep to be out. the one that starts with an a. >> someone says nike is going to be able to move near sneaker manufacturing out of china apple is the most chinese company that we have i can't think that anyone is going to be exempted
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remember the economic policy before it passed away. i am like a diplomat to the associates i think that's what you are going to see here unless the chinese start to come to the table. we'll prove it and you and i both know it is going to be approved and that could be the next -- >> listen. i get asked this a lot >> you do? >> more than how your son play on defense >> the antitrust concerns of china sort of bleeds into the worry of the mma mark, it reaches that level there is conferenidence the confidence they are basing their confidence on, can they be confidence about that. it only come down to one guy,
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the premier itself can you imagine saying no. >> we are talking about two big mma deals that people do not understand wait a second, the chinese have the ability to stop deals? it is brand new. >> right, people need to realize that if you choose not to go ahead with your deal, you can't do business with china utx and you are selling. >> or if you are at fox at disney and you are selling movies and if you want to close your deal and they don't let you. >> you have to pull out shanghai of disney? >> i have no idea. the expectations are going to get their deals approved by the chinese. to the extent this continues to wor wor s worsen, we'll have more on it. >> it is medical way to look at it
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what they can do is signal we want a little better relationship what we are approving collins. that's an analog of what's happening. i want a list. they print a list, right here is what we are taking up. don't you think the prc givers you a chance to make money >> there was a moment at 10:00 last night, the chinese put out a list of here is what we are taking up. >> please do not forward >> i am blocked. if google were to get in there what do you think of google moving to china? that's something that a lot of the people in the u.s. don't want >> google reportedearnings on thursday, nearly a third of the s&p is going to report this week including names like alphabet
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and amazon the chart everybody is talking about is the cover of the journal which looks at about a fifth of the s&p that's reported and 35% missing at the top line would be the highest of the year >> yeah. you know these misses and what i keep thinking about is jay powell he's a very good man i know there is a tough time and in parts of the family i feel bad about his wife and brother it is just terrible, just terrible and jeff is-- yeah is a great guy. i think he's a good man and these numbers are going to be watched. i don't think he's going to be able -- i think he's going to blink. i think it is going to be one
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and done in december >> one and done in december? >> yeah, and he's going to pause. >> goldman at five more hikes. >> that's okay, they have every right to be wrong and i worked there. they were wrong a lot. given their stock prices they have been wrong a lot of things. eight times earnings they should be working around hair suits or sacks of cloths. >> they don't get your respect anymore. >> they can get my respect if they start to deliver new numbers. the eagles won the super bowl, right? i see people leaving the stadium to beat the traffic. i do think that we are going see more and more bad earnings because 5% mortgage is the end that's the line in the sand. you know what's going on all the companies where you go get a line of credit >> sure. >> and go to home depot and fix things up. i want to know what home depot
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has to say about that. their stock is down 40 straight point. kitchen and bath remodel kitchen and bath when you have a couple of bucks that's fine. everyone is at 700 in this country and the balance she sheet -- >> you don't agree percentage of debt service to household income is multi decade lows >> i think it is fine. there is a reluctant to take out loans. i have to tell you that the mortgage rate is very high in this country look at all the regional banks they're starting to proceed this >> the ni non-banking world is very strong right now. i hope the feds are watching i am starting the hear no loans.
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we are in a period right now where lasisser-fare approach >> the mark is offer >> you believe housing in particular, a result of higher interest rates is leading us into lower growth that's certainly not inflationary and means the fed is crazy if they actually think they're going to go up anymore than one time. >> i have nothing more to say. he articulated more better than i could. >> that's really good. now if i can get you to agree with you >> no, that's not going to happen >> the chinese are a preempted company in the world >> the chinese should never be under estimated. >> i think our country over estimates the chinese. >> really? >> yes, i don't want apple stock
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to go down it is not about apple. it is about bipolar world. i don't mean bipolar like needs or mental. >> countries around the world are going to have to make choice whose camps are they in? >> you got it. >> you are convinced they're coming to us >> that's a good thing >> it is a reality i am going to see my cousin. >> i am willing to fly 3,000 miles to get my head beat in i am going to talk about the notion of the world. they never want to choose. if the chinese -- our president wants everybody including the ngo ea ngo's to choose. this is a new world and you better welcome me. >> or what i have not thought about that. >> that's what it is really
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about. >> or else >> i am crazy as a fox right now. >> bipolar world partner >> uh-oh >> just think the navarro world is not about trade >> when we come back, another departure from cbs board, dick parsons is stepping down coming up as the dow and the s&p break that three-week losing streak more "squawk on the street" in a moment team member, tecky. i'm tecky. i can do it all. go ahead, ask it a question. tecky, can you offer low costs and award-winning wealth management with a satisfaction guarantee, like schwab? sorry. tecky can't do that. schwabbb! calling schwab. we don't have a satisfaction guarantee, but we do have tecky! i'm tecky. i ca...
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interesting and we wish the best for mr. parsons who's dealing with health issues and has been. some people questioned why he even took it in the first place given his health conditions. the real question is beyond cbs and the company in terms of its potential reemerging with viacom at some point. joe ianniella i don't think any way in a lay up that he'll be appointed ceo and certainly -- he has a rich exit package potentially if he does in fact leave he has been making plenty of moves. they got a new cfo coming in they got a new cfo coming in at
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showtime ia ianniella is doing some thing and there is the larger question and i have pointed this at a number of time yes, sherry redstone and the weird thing they made, we should revisit those talks, may be better to be together than apart. the very least next spring will be talking a lot about that prospect >> yeah. i think viacom is a great article this morning of how they're doing on facebook and there is a definitely buy back i think monetizing property. david, let me ask you something. >> well, for now zelnick, a very busy man
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this is the redemption period right now. he has a book out. >> he's working on his abs >> obviously a busy man. >> that's photoshop. it can't be real >> he's like 61 years old. >> well, he's got some work cut out for him there. >> he's a chiseled man. >> or jealousy or both >> i just send him an e-mail, everyone in the world is envious of him >> you can do more pull ups. >> there is nothing i can do >> your point is taken he's a businey man and redstones
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exerting her leverage. >> it is time to come back together you know we'll see and certainly can't say for sure but that seems to be a possibility. >> we got how many minutes do we have during the break because i got to do my 60 seconds. >> is he going to be on another network? >> he must have had some body's body grafted on. can he do that how about "time" magazine. >> wow, that coverer model >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash" and a busy week on tap, we'll be back in a moment
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makes me feel that tony is about to change his tune i think he's going to say this new advertising stream despite apple is very, very big and overlooked i think this is a subtle change saying apple's best days could still be ahead of them >> interesting tony is someone that i love. this is what i wanted and i want to get him more positive and sure enough he has come around the bull narrative it turns out he's talking about a gigantic amount of business that he can do >> it is an advertising platform he's talking about being the next amazon. >> they're not going to at all even budge on privacy. he still thinks they're not going to one of the best pieces i read
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about apple for a long time. it is very thoughtful. he's a thoughtful man. he's the bill belichick of the apple of the people. >> did they win? >> yes, they did that was a close contest >> it was. >> now they're back. edelman is back. that's without gronk a lot of people played him and they dn'kn treasidt owhe w a scratch. >> we got opening bell in four minutes. "squawk on the street" is coming right back
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that's why you need a partner dedicated to helping your company reach its goals. u.s. bank -- the power of possible. you are watching cnbc "squawk on the street," live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in about a minute what a week we have on tap earnings on alphabet and amazon and boeing and microsoft we mention china over night. brexit is going to try to defend themselves and the saudis and the explanation over khashoggi >> when i hear the ceo being very defensive on their
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conference calls it concerns me the analysts take that dene defensiveness and they run with it i did a piece on united reynolds yesterday. holy cow, they were fine of whatever it is that's what i am concerned about. paypal is the only company that did well last friday if you say anything negative, you are going to get shipped the analysts are so negative and the ceos giving them a little something, that's all they need. >> like the mamainstream media >> new alternatives for children, we work with the children, roic we did have that p&g rally last week >> that was nice >> kimberley clark answered
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today of the guide above consensus. >> i will tell you about kimberley clark. $210 million up for higher input cost that's incredible. they can deliver any number that's positive. also, don't forget, i think that people are -- i think he did a great job. i think that people are also happy that it is coming in no proctor for them. david taylor is so humble about the terms. anim analysts were nitpicking and were not ready for it. they're talking about working progress they don't believe in the terms. the terms seem to be sustainable in some of the areas that i have
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not been expecting >> certainly he gave it credence but at the same time you don't want to say the turn around is complete they're off to the race. mr. taylor would not do that i think mr. taylor came through a difficult proxy fight and came out on the other side and said he had another plan. i like that stock. anybody who sells that stocks right here, they should read the conference call before they sell it is an uninformed decision we do have some upgrades though. rbc takes chipotle out perform intel, we have not seen that in a while. >> the intel call, basically cross your fingers, we'll be okay i want more substance from that. a amd stock is down. some firm said look you know, there is some rock in it i know micron is in control of
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the board tech of semis. you know what stock we don't talk about that's moving up quietly and involved with china. starbucks, take a look at this thing. it is now at 59. this stock is going from 52 to 59 achman is there at chipotle. >> achman is like catch fund manager own stock. >> you are right, i should not brought it up. he's not going to do it. this is kervin johnson making a good deal with china, with your friend, jack ma. i do like the way of starbucks it is literally a classi classic -- this is three yards cloud of dust. >> piper is the big team survey out today. the number one restaurant is
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chick-fil-a but it is followed by starbucks >> yes, every since i saw kj one of the hottest cities of real estate, nashville this man is getting his hands dirty. he's not running for president >> you come around on this >> from kj >> remember when we did the interview in boston, you were tough on him >> well, i was been showing me many great things and nothing obviously he's doing the financial stuff that you want and fixing all the different aspects including china. u.s. will be the last to turn. that's very tough. his loyalty program, the acceleration of his loyalty program. >> trying to get the afternoon moving >> count me as a believer. >> i really think that and china has this incredible drop off and
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he's turning that around i am very -- a very promising situation. >> not a merger on monday, not even close it is a carl icahn related transaction. it is worth looking. arii, american car industries. 62% owned by mr. icahn they're selling to a fund. ite rail fund, they'll pay 70 bucks per share in cash. you can see it is quite a premium, is it >> yes >> 51% premium to close. transaction values is about 11.5 times 2019 consensus i just want to mention it. we are in for mr. icahn.
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he's got plenty of money >> his performances have been better lately but mix when you look at big numbers over a long period of time many energy investments he made did not pay off until at all or recently he's involved in the dell fight. dell does have a meeting date now, the 11th of noviember is when they'll have the meeting. the tracking stock for vm ware for actual dell and cash there is great opposition to it. mr. icahn believes they'll not be able to do it and won't get the vote in favor and does not believe that they'll go public because he thinks it would be incredibly diluted and opening it up. in delaware in terms of
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fairness, worth going into it and with a later date. not today. >> engineering selling its energy business. stock hav stocks have been moving up two other projects that's interpreted by the analyst and infrastructure was slow and growth of mexico in the area where they are building so many pipes, widening places for ships. it is a great economic activity in the country the rest of the activity is slowing because of the yield r curve. >> morgan stanley -- >> that was unbelievable they reported last week and they were doing buy backs that was like a spit in the eye and a hit and a 500,000 fine is what they should get for that downgrade. that's a reference to nba this
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weekend which was unbelievable adam silver does not like fighting, huh? >> icahn once played into netflix billion dollars offering which you said was on the away >> they have to. they got to develop non-stop content and it has not worked for anybody else people don't talk about non-stop content. at&t, do you have any insights >> big wireless company and also an entertainment company >> maybe wednesday >> did you like that ceo, randall stevenson >> really? >> don stanky running the entertainment access its gotten more information than you have there you go >> jim, oil services not playing today, wti still below 69,
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target extricate and the case of khashoggi. >> people do not want to touch these stocks and halliburton is at its low why is that? i think people feel that -- i don't believe that >> they're talking about the wells that are not as productive that's a big issue hal halliburton is vofred involved u.s. and we have to see if colorado can drill the only good is vf is moving its headquarter to denver. i looked at real estate and
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boulder. >> of course, you did. >> the tech boom is shifting to boulder because it is cheaper. >> they exhausted austin and now they're moving >> yes, they are moving. p polares is up at four. >> that's what's happening >> polaris i thought it was a good quarter but maybe on the conference call they mention china in some way or form. it is incredible to me how negative these calls they all read the same don't worry about china. they have china? it is their north america volume up one verses up 13 a year ago >> that was like holy cow,
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they're playing like buffalo >> speaking of conference call we have the cleveland conference call >> oh, we did not get to that. >> it was during our show or after it >> that was something to read, was it >> someone spoke up. and wilfred maybe explaining to themdignify. you know he got that english accent >> his accent goes along way >> don't start adopting it >> what he calls that was the goldman analyst. >> dow is being led by intel and the upgrade. let's get over to bob pisani
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good morning bob >> 3-1 declining stock but it faded. over in china where they only had one bonsai warning there the shenzhen is down every one in their mother was out since friday talking about how strong the chinese stock market was the president was out offering unwavering support exchanges, help manage risk share-pledge risks and income tax cut proposals that are on there. they're doing everything they possibly can to keep the market supported over there, at least today, it definitely had an impact as for here, it is clear of a few things you want to watch for at the bottom as we use it
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number one, lighter volume, particularly selling volume. that was happening towards the end of last week i mean things like ten-day moving average and only about a quarter of the stock are above their ten-day moving average it was as low as 10% a week and a half ago less volatility, of the vix curve flattening it was not elevated like it was a week and a half ago. 28 in the contact. they are flattening out. at least it is calming down a little bit here. sector, the right stuff is moving here. the stuff that was beating the emerging market for example, and sma's. consumers are up and we got retailers moving jim is right about energy. it is doing nothing here right now. if you look at the halliburton
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number, it is interesting. they talk about customer budget exhausti exhaustion that was an interesting term they are right near at 52-week lows kimberly-clark is an example of what fen companies are facing now. >> and selling prices were higher they made a point about that this is all good news here we had the common on foreign exchange are hurting their growth by 1% then the common by input cost being higher they did affirm their full year earnings and above consensus we have this stew, good organic sales growth and higher prices offset by foreign exchange issues and higher input cost that's your theme.
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how much erosions are we going to see at this point that's what's hard to figure out at this point. it is not bad but it is ebb crea increasing in some cases it is being offset by higher prices the reserve news avenues are go. full-ti finally they were attacking peak earnings growth and now we are talking about peak revenue growth in the article journal today, i am not worried about it right now. we have this outlier of 9% and the s&p 500. we'll do above 7% for the third quarter. 6.6 or 6.8 going into 2019 the historicing avera average it decade is 3% to 5% we had negative reserve new growth in 2016 these numbers are well above that i am concerned of the cost
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factors. if you had 2% growth and cost and you are getting 7% growth in revenue, that's manageable of the price hikes. watch the input. right now guys, we are now negative in the dow after starting 3-1 positive to negative >> guys, back to you >> dow and s&p going red and nasdaq is hanging on let's get to our seema mody. >> hello, we are just about 20 points and getting a lift from the positive session in china. using more tools to stimulate the economy after xi provided a vote of confidence over the weekend. take a look at the move in chinese tech like alibaba and all about 2% to 4% still important to know that these stocks are trading down on the year the big question is whether the rebound can continue, earnings
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will provide the real evidence as to whether market like china are a source of growth or pain this week. technology will dominate earnings intel among others according this weekend despite technology over a year, goldman sachs puts out a note this morning saying they favor technology and higher margins and speaking of earnings, we are keeping a close eye on travel and caribbean and ex paedia t keep an eye on that sector as well guys, back to you. >> seema mody. when we come back, beth comstock is with us as we enter the biggest week of the earnings
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could there be more tax cuts on the way the president says republicans are planning some for middle-income earners. this is what he said about the cuts after a rally in nevada over the weekend. we're looking at a major tax cut for middle-income people who need it. >> reporter: what was the time frame for that >> i would say some time around the first of november, maybe a little before that. >> keep in mind, congress is out of session until after the midterms so there was some confusion over the weekend as to how this would work. >> i think there is concern. i think the democrats are getting increasingly confident that they take the house. >> really. because polls are going the other way. >> i know. i'm surprised at the -- >> so you think that's why he said -- >> yes. >> because apparently nobody was aware -- it's not connected to the even 2.0 tax reform. the reporting is this came out
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of nowhere. >> yeah, i mean, there's just some chatter around washington this weekend, just chatter around the people that i circled which is there is a bit of a surge in the last few weeks. to me people vote their pocketbook and it surprised me to hear that the democrats are gaining confidence because job growth is so plentiful and that's what i -- i feel maybe the democrats are too cloistered. >> is it weird that both the president and president xi are offering -- are promising some elements of tax relief at this stage? >> i think it's interesting to see how the presidents are both more focused on the economy than -- i mean, it's really what they're focused on not on the military, not on any foreign policy stuff you started the show talking about foreign policy it just disappeared. i mean, these are big issues saudi arabia, very big it's kind of just -- >> often times those kinds of things don't resonate during a
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midterm election but this year could be somewhat different. certainly the democrats are hoping it will be. >> but this is such a big week i have to emphasize to people like when you have a call like the halliburton call where people hear about a pause, halliburton is talking about a pause in drilling, it's like boom, sell, sell, sell so the ceos have to measure their words. wow. >> indeed. dow is down a quick 76 we'll get stop trading with jim in a moment.
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time for cramer and stop trading. >> people are talking about how expensive the market is. do you know micron is selling at three times earnings obviously that means people feel micron will not make those earnings and that has been the hole in the whole world of semis is this micron micron is boom/bust, we here in the bust phase of micron clearly. just be careful because three times earnings, wow. that's obviously -- gm is 4.5, but it may not be as cheap as it looks is what i'm saying
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it may not be able to make those numbers and that will reverberate throughout the amd world, through the intel upgrade. be very, very careful of that until the other shoe falls. >> in june it was up 50% for the year. >> they're buying back a gigantic amount of stock $10 billion doesn't seem to affect the stock at all so people feel the d-ram market is collapsing it's not yet. >> hasbro tonight? >> hasbro is down badly and i think hasbro is managing this -- the toys "r" us collapse but periodically the toys appear in other segments of the food chain and he has to battle that and he'll come through it. i don't know how he does it all, he and six-pack zelnick are both on that. >> when we come back, mohamed el-erian will talk about the
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eisen and david faber at the pink that. everything has gone negative dow is down 79, s&p almost 10 and the tech rally was the last to tip our road map for the hour begins with the busiest week of earnings season dominating the market 149 s&p 500 stocks and a third of the dow set to report we'll get you ready. plus the administration teasing this new tax cut, but congress is not in session does it have a chance? and megamillions mania the jackpot soaring to a new all time world record. we begin the busiest week of earnings and stocks have fallen into the red following october's volatility in the market joining us is mohamad elel-erian great to have you back good morning. >> thank you for having me on. >> we're at a point where u.s./china relations appear to be going nowhere quickly more concerns about peak
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earnings growth here, dollar/strength supply chains, raising costs, some hope the fed blinks in december is that where you are? are people overestimated the short-term weakness in the global economy >> so where i am is that the global economy is slowing and, more importantly, becoming more divergent. the u.s. will continue to outpace the others but at some point the convergence question will arise so this is a much more volatile environment and it comes in the context critically of an ongoing accelerating transition in markets from the comfort of continuous repeated predictable central bank support to a market that now has to stand on its own feet on fundamentals and that transition is always tricky. >> last week, i think it was on "squawk" you said we were talking about the difference between developed economies and you said the key question is whether em would rise and meet
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the developed world or whether developed would roll over and meet em. which is more likely >> what i was trying to convey is resist the temptation of fating the u.s. market and going into emerging markets. you hear that over and over again and for good reason. as of last friday, the return deferential between eem and the s&p was 20 percentage points year to date 20 that's huge. so you hear a lot of people say now fade the u.s., go into em and i'm telling people that's too early. if you're going to do it, do it with the mind-set of dollars at risk do it with the mind-set that this is going to be a very volatile trade and certainly don't do it passively. be an active manager if you're going to go into e.m. >> let's talk about your point about the u.s. you think we're going to be just fine and continue to outperform. the one question i think serve debating is what is going on in the housing market
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it's unclear whether this is a leading indicator for the overall economy -- which it has been before -- or just a set of anomalies. which is it? >> that's a great question, sara, and that's the difference between structural forces driving the econom the cycle. supply has become a problem and interest rates are going up. so for me it's no surprise the housing market is slowing, but what's powering the u.s. is something different. what's powering the u.s. is the coming together of three engines -- household income is going up because of a strong labor market and the tax cut, fiscal spending is kicking in and business investment is kicking in so you have the difference between cyclical forces slowing and longer term secular forces kicking in.
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>> if that's true, why would the president talk about an additional tax cut now >> i think that was in the context of an election rally, as you just pointed out congress is out. you need congress for that my hope is that you focus on something else infrastructure spending. you need to move the potential gdp up you need to do more on enabling higher growth the future if you're going to use political capital, i would use it on if infrastructure side, not further tax cuts. >> at what point do you start to worry about the growing budget deficits into next year, rising rates, interest obviously as a percent of overall spending becoming larger and larger >> it's going to become an issue further down the road, david, if growth doesn't go up and stay up i don't think it's a short-term issue. i think the u.s. has further debt capacity. but it's critical that you use that capacity to promote future growth otherwise this will become an
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issue down the road. >> we're all trying to figure out what's going on in the ground in china. we read into the market moves, 4% up after a dismal performance. president xi committed unwaivering support to chinese firms. do you think the u.s. administration is unds estimating how much support the chinese are willing to provide in the case of a slowdown in a prolonged trade war. >> you know the support they're providing is like cranking up an old growth model that is getting tired so what they're doing is simply buying some short term breathing room the problem with income tax cuts is that the private sector in china is risk-averse they don't go out and spend the money. they're very different from the u.s. so i don't think what they're promising is going to have a material impact on growth over the longer term i think china needs to do two things -- one is accelerate its
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internal reform and, two, realize the best thing you can do right now is provide concessions to the u.s. so use the upcoming meeting with president trump to say -- to provide concrete things on intellectual property rights, joint venture requirements and imports and move this forward and defuse the trade tension otherwise it becomes a national security concern for the u.s. and it will be harder for china to defuse it down the road. >> what do you mean by national security concern you may say it's a rational response to do what they just said but it doesn't appear that's likely based on the people i speak to who are familiar with the current regime and their posture. so what are you talking about and what do you expect when you say national security? >> their view is let's wait it out, we've always taken the long view and let's wait it out the problem with that is, a, in the short term your economy and your markets suffer but, b, look
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at the debate going on in the u.s. this started as a trade issue and it's slowly migrating to something much bigger. to a national security issue you heard jim earlier today. he referred to that. the debate in washington is moving and it's moving away from things that can be solved quickly so just like korea, mexico and canada realized, defuse it early otherwise it becomes a much bigger problem for you. >> mohamad, ex-china, there's four big stories there's italy/eu, there's brexit, there's saudi and there's bolsonaro in brazil. what's the fist thing you want to read about when you wake up >> the first thing i want to read about when i wake up is -- >> the jets. >> no, not the jets. carl, no we were doing so well before you mentioned the jets
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look, all this speaks to fragmentation and divergence that's the fundamental theme going on now and markets have to realize that that involves higher volatility. most go for active investment. and keep the powder dry for special opportunities because this divergence isn't s going to get worse before it gets better. is whether it's italy, brexit, china, all that speaks to divergent trends in the global economy. >> it also speaks to political problems each one of those examples carl mentioned speaks to the environment of heightened geopolitical risk, mohamad, and never easy to understand what investors make of that and how they link that to the global economy. >> so so far, sara, investors have basically sidestepped this, and for good reason. when you have the central bank covering your back you don't worry too much about geopolitics. you don't even worry too much
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about domestic politics and central banks aren't covering the market's back as effectively. this is a different fed. the powell fed is fundamentally different from what has come before it's concerned about future technological stability. it's going to hike, as it has signalled. the ecb is getting out of the business of supporting markets through their large-scale purchases. it's just a matter of time before the bank of japan exits so the markets have to realize they no longer have their backs covered by central banks. recessionary calls are still pretty low j.p. morgan is somewhere in the 20% range for 12 months. at what point do you think about wealth effects pushing a recessionary call? >> not for a while i think the u.s. economy has a lot of momentum. if we end up in a recession in the next two years, which i think is a low probability but
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if we do it's either because of a policy mistake on the monetary policy side or because of the rest of the world goes into recession and drags us down but if you look at the baseline, this economy still has a growth one way. >> mohamad, good stuff good to have you on the show, too, mohamad ell-erian is joinin us from california carl, as you mentioned earlier, another tax cut coming. that was certainly the talk of the weekend after the president offered up a new pitch ahead of the midterms our ylan mui in washington with more on the likelihood, ylan, of such a thing happening. >> this comment came after a big rally in nevada on saturday. president trump spoke with reporters and surprised everybody when he talked about a major new middle-class tax cut. >> we are looking at putting in a very major tax cut for middle-income people and if with do that it will be some time just prior i would say to november. >> reporter: going to do what
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again? >> a major tax cut. >> no one i've talked to is sure what the president was referring to trump told reporters that house ways and means chairman kevin brady and speaker paul ryan are already working on this but when i reached out to their office this is weekend they referred me back to the white house and had no comment now, there is a tax package before congress right now that makes the individual tax cuts permanent and also includes measures to encourage retirement savings and entrepreneurship the house passed those bills last month before they went on recess but the senate isn't planning to take this up until after the midterms so the timing the president laid out is confusing. you heard him say this could happen around november but as you pointed out, congress is on rece recess, everyone is in their districts campaigning ahead of the midterms one white house official walked the comments back to me a little bit saying the administration isn't looking to move anything immediately, they're just looking at additional tax cuts
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down the road. republicans haven't gotten the boost in the polls from the tax law they hoped for so the president's comments appear to be more about politics than policy, at least for now, back over to you. >> isn't the other hurd that will the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts added a trillion dollars to the nation's deficit we just got the figure the federal budget deficit widened 17% in 2018. at some point, won't that be a problem for republicans? >> that's right. republicans have been sounding the alarm over the deficit for years. they've shut down the government over these type of fiscal concerns and the tax package currently in front of congress is worth something around $700 billion over a decade so these are big numbers that republicans are starting to become possibly uncomfortable with as they look at additional tax cuts down the road and when you see that perhaps tax cuts are not paying for themselves, we have had economic growth but those deficit numbers are getting
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bigger, that i may give them some second thoughts. >> ylan, thanks. we'll talk to you in a bit ylan mui another departure from the top at cbs this time it's dick parsons stepping down as interim chairman we have details on that. plus, the busiest week of earnings season under way, the former vice chair of ge, beth comstock, is with us to talk about business and ceo sentiment. dow down 72. the quick ssn ghseiohi was up 117. we'll be right back. gather new insights, leave your data protected on-site, and put it all to work with ai. the ibm cloud. the cloud for smarter business.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." dow is down 114. time for our etf spotlight mike santoli looking at tech, tries to rebound after suffering the third negative week. first time we've seen that since brexit, not so convincing today. >> not so convincing slightly outperforming in the early going but not by much. i thought it made sense to look at several different slices of tech since september 20 when the s&p 500 hit its high so the s&p is down about 6.2% since that high and here are a few different parts of tech. so the traditional tech sector, xlk, is actually down, what is that, about 5%, so it's slightly outperformed or basically performed in line with the overall market but look at the equal weighted version of that
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sector, it's down a good deal more than the s&p 500. down 10% from its high of 8.8% since the september 20 level so you've had this unusual situation lately where tech has been leading this corrective phase we've had in the market and that's why i think people are looking for a bounce there communications services, that's the new sector with the media-like tech companies as well as old media. that had a bad start in the spring when the etf listed but it's outperformed the markets since then facebook had taken its pain before this little correction in the broad market semis, intel gets an upgrade intel stock responding, the broader sector not so much about flat and that's down 11% since september 20 so itseems as if the engine of so much of the upside we had has been sputtering and has not yet kicked in again. >> we were talking to jim
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earlier. micron is trading at 3.5 times earnings now. >> exactly it's one of the sectors that if you're listening to market is saying okay, that was your cycle. who knows if it's wrong but that's how they're pricing these things >> are we going to look back as the sector creation as a peak? >> i resisted the idea at the time but i think it was reflective of the fact there was a problem and the market was choking on too much technology. >> i wonder if netflix stock tells you anything it had great earnings. totally blew out estimates on subscribers which was an important answer after last quarter's miss and now it's 20% off its high. >> i think it might signal something in terms of how much good news was front-loaded into the stocks which i think is raising stakes for other big tech earnings. not so much because of what they'll say but is the market looking for an excuse to have
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this group bounce or are they going to sell the good news and look to something worse. >> netflix is scary. that was a strong quarter and now it's below the price in which it was. >> netflix is a balance sheet story and the others aren't so that gives you a different flavor they've managed to raise more debt but longer term it's not great for it. >> still up 69%. >> people talk about incredible expenses in terms of that content. >> yeah. >> thanks, mike. just 15 days away from the midterms, that's where we are right now and issues of regulation rollback and what it means for companies in the energy industry are front and center jackie deangelis joins us now with more on what's at stake for these names. >> good morning. if republicans hang on to their majorities president trump will have a better chance of pursuing his pro-energy agenda but if democrats get control it could be harder. this data was compiled by platz. in new mexico, one candidate
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likely to embrace drilling regulations, the other expected to oppose. in new york, natural gas infrastructure regulators have stopped several pipeline projects. in michigan, enbridge energy's line 5 oil and natural gas pipeline, does it stay or go texas, at issue, reforming the renewable fuel standard. in colorado, will there be new drilling in the dj basin the fastest-growing production area in the rocky mountain region california consumes about 43 million gallons of gasoline everyday is a proposition going to be approved to repeal a 12 cent per gallon increase in the gas tax in florida, an amendment prohibiting drilling in all state waters along florida's shoreline is at stake. washington, oil refineries, natural gas fired power plants could be hit by fees that would generate an estimated $2.3 billion in five years but could cost the industry. arizona proposition 127. it would create challenges for grid stability if passed so a lot of states to watch here and
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we're just not that far away the energy industry could be impacted. >> indeed, jackie, what a ride it's been these past few weeks when we come back, hasbro getting hit as lingering toys "r" us woes dent their earnings. we'll look at this morning's big movers in a few moments. meantime, getting another check on the major averages. dow opened up 117, now down 136 and the s&p back to 2751 your company is constantly evolving.
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let's get you caught up on a few movers we begin with kimberly clark, the consumer products company named president and c.o.o. michael su that begins in january separately, the company reported quarterly results beat on the top and bottom line. fx will have a larger-than-expected negative sales impact hasbro a miss, the toy maker citing lost revenue from the toys "r" us liquidation. and cbs interim chair dick
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parsons has stepped down he's replaced by strauss zelnick. >> there were people who were surprised that mr. parson's chose to take the job in the first place. he's battling multiple myeloma we wish him the best strauss zelnick stepping in. key question is more around the leadership of joe ianello, current interim ceo and whether redstone and the board will make a move there and i think that's still uncertain at this point but certainly a possibility they will, as is the possibility at some point they'll revisit the potential of a combination of viacom and cbs as i've been reporting. not this year but perhaps next year on friday kimberly clark was up on the p&g numbers and now down today. >> the numbers were better, 1% organic growth was better than the street was expecting expectationings wes were low
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the leadership change also not hugely surprising. su was number two to faulk who had been ceo of the company for 16 years investors see it as continuity in the strategy su is a familiar face previously at craft hynes then kimberly-clark still big brands are having trouble. number two, the currency pressure is intense right now and so is commodities so higher input costs on everything from tissues to diapers then, of course, all of those foreign sales get chopped with the stronger u.s. dollar i would say p&g is a big competitive threat it's a category leader, it's dominant so that will be tough to compete with and then there's the private label which continues to grow with walmart and amazon and everybody making moves. having said that kimberly has seen better luck when it comes to passing on the price increases.
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it looks like they have more pricing power thanks to their stronger brands than originally expected to see will see that will be the story throughout the year. clearly not having such a great reaction there was a lot not to like, declining sales derks kleining volume, stronger dollar. so we'll see isu can bring fresh energy. >> the currency markets? there's not a lot you can do about that. >> but look what p&g did they're dealing with a stronger dollar as well and focusing and streamlining the decision making is starting to help on the innovation front so it will be an interesting industry to watch and a new leader in the household products base when we come back, stocks in the red not helping. reversing course this morning. we'll look at where to put your money to work in this selloff coming up next and speaking of money, it's lotto fever out there. the megamillions jackpot swelling to an all-time record we'll tell youowuc h mh the at
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good morning, everyone, i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update at this hour. saudi arabia announcing saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman has called the son of jamal khashoggi to express condolences over the death of the journalist saudi arabia's explanation that khashoggi was killed in a fistfig fistfight has been met with international skepticism sergei lavrov speaking at a news conference with his madagascar counterpart says if the u.s. is ready to withdraw from their landmark nuclear treaty, they will assess the situation after speaking with national security adviser john bolton bolton will be in moscow for two days of talks. work crews moving train cars upright after one of taiwan's
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fastest passenger trains derailed on a curve over the weekend killing at least 18 people and injuring more than 180 others the derailment is under investigation. and former carolina panthers football player rae carruth released from prison after 18 years after conspiring to kill his girlfriend in 1989 that's the news update sara, back downtown to you. >> sue herherera, thank you. welcome back to "squawk on the street" live from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. checking the markets one hour into trade, all major averages are lower after what started out as a strong session earlier. this as the busiest week of earnings season gets under way boeing, amazon, mcdonald's all set to report results this week.
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so let's talk about how to read into this. david, bank of america put out a note saying beat reactions have gone from slim to negative earnings per share have underperformed the next day so if companies aren't get regular warded for better numbers, can this earnings season safe the market or not? >> it's important to recognize we're still waiting on a handful of big names to report here which could certainly lead things in a different direction. to my mind, the micro, which has provided a bit of a safety net for equity markets throughout the course of the year, is beginning to fray a bit as people talk about peak growth, peak earnings, expectations for 2019 begin to come into greater focus so i wouldn't read too much into the price action around earnings announcements so far this season. what i would read into is kind of what companies are saying, what's going on with the dollar, are they worried about tariffs,
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what's going on with margins because to me that will be the broader narrative for investors to focus on over the next couple quarters. >> what are you getting on that front? >> we're seeing a lot of concern about the u.s. dollar. people came into this earnings season expecting tariffs to be the hot item but people talking about how with the dollar strengthening that's weighing on revenues, particularly for those more internationally exposed sectors and we expect that trend will continue so watching the details closely. >> with investors pickier here, ernesto, where do you find value in the big cap names >> we find value in the so-called value stocks if you look at the russell 1000 valuation which is about 13.5 times 2019 earnings and compare it to the russell 1,000 growth which is tech heavier trading at 19.5 times earnings, that's a big difference and given the
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uncertainty around the earnings as david mentioned, earnings have come in very strong but the outlook that company are delivering may not be as strong as it has been in the past that's going to set the tone for the markets. so you want to have some protection in terms of not buying the most expensive stocks which, when they disappointed, then tend to get hit very hard and that's where we favor stocks in the financial sectors, companies such as city groigrou companies such as conoco phillips because they're trading at a much cheaper valuation than the high-flying tech stocks at this point. >> david, it's hard to believe it was a few weeks ago that jay powell said the economy was at an extraordinary moment. at what point do you calculate whether or not they turn tail in december or early 2019 >> so, you know i think the outlook for the u.s. economy still looks fairly solid our expectation for the better part of this year has been for
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3% growth to be maintained through the end of 2019 -- sorry, through the end of 2018 and the middle of 2019 expectations that have are for growth to slow back down to 2% so from where we sit with the labor market tight and the fed uncomfortable in terms of where that unemployment rate is sitting, they'll probably hike in december. they'll probably go twice in the first half of next year but i wonder a little bit about what the second half of 2019 may hold will the fed pause in september, hike in december will they just abandon that third hike all together and cut rates in early 2020? the data will have to be the guide but for the next couple quarters the fed has policy below their estimate of neutral. they're viewing this as continued normalization rather than active tightening and with 14 of 16 fed governors saying last week in the minutes they expect policy to have to move into restrictive territory, i don't think the fed is going to pause any time soon unless the data begins to warrant such a
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paus pause. >> which is a question and it hasn't been, you said you like financials and citigroup in particular do you need to see the fed continuing to gradually raise interest rates here for that group to outperform? >> well, that would certainly be very helpful it's not necessary but that's going to be the primary driver so financials are driven by two things, strong economic growth, because they're cyclical companies or sensitive economic companies and higher interest rates because it translated to higher net interest margins. if you don't get the higher interest rates on the long end, that would complicate the start a little bit but the story with financials is a big one of returning capital to shareholders, that won't stop. clearly, for example, citigroup has been improving their capital position to the point where now they're starting to bump up their dividend and that will drive the stock. of course higher interest -- net
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interest margin would be helpful and strong economic growth, which we're seeing and will continue to see, as david mentioned, we will be very helpful as well. >> and the banks are down 5.5% this year, we're seeing our best growth we've seen in years when it comes to u.s. gdp how reliable is that >> nobody seems to believe in financials it will take next quarter -- this quarter and next quarter of reporting to convince people banks are on a good trajectory but you can't expect the market to understand the story because there have been -- they have been punished for so long by regulation and other factors adverse to them. >> we'll see if that changes thank you for joining us on a monday morning david liebovitz and ernesto ramos. when we return, ceo confidence in question a new survey shows optimism might be topping out the former vice chair of ge, beth comstock, will join us to
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discuss that plus, money mania. that megamillions jackpot hits the new all time record. a look at the odds of hitting it big straight ahead now let's look at the top performing names on the s&p as the nasdaq tries to go green again. again. ♪ acan echo throughout ane entire community.nge that's why we proudly support, invest and volunteer in communities like yours. because the changes we make today... can you hear me? ...shape the possibilities of tomorrow. u.s. bank the power of possible.
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oh, there weren't enough hours in the day to maintain are old data center. so we made a twelve a fifteen. three extra hours. but that really doesn't add hours to the day. yeah it does, look. i'm not sure it works that way, but at cdw we get that time is precious. so we'd access your needs then design a nutanix enterprise cloud. to give you more time to grow your business. yeah that's better. hey we still on for lunch at 15 o'clock? you bet. for private cloud solutions you need nutanix and it orchestration by cdw. ceos across america are feeling the least confident they have all year, that's according to "chief executive" magazine and its latest sentiment survey. dominic chu has a breakdown of the numbers. zm dom? >> we are coming off elevated levels for ceo confidence. if you look at this chart what it shows is that we have seen a downward trend in terms of ceo
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confidence across hundreds of ceos polled across this magazine it's the lowest level of 2018, the lowest level we've seen over the course of the past 12 months we had ceo surveys indicating a more positive sentiment given tax cuts and everything else but if you drill down into the reaction, there are three main themes for the pessimism coming through. number one, a fear of rising interest rates, no surprise there. also fears of inflation. so fed inflation very much in focus. also some idea there might be a late-stage fear that the economic cycle is somehow coming to a close those three things echoing prominently with ceos across america. if you look from a macro perspective, it's the smaller and middle-sized companies within america and their ceos that have some of the more i guess pessimistic views is the best way to put it on a relative basis, larger company ceos seem to be weathering this sentiment storm a little better than others. if you look at where the positivity was, construction,
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believe it or not, had the best sentiment gains across this survey, flying in the face of that home construction pessimism we've seen but professional services. that seemed to be one of the places where ceos were less optimistic if you're looking for where the biggest points of negativity were, no surprise that it was technology and communications services ceos that had the biggest year-over-year decline in sentiment so we'll see if that reverses course but it's playing out in the form of small and midcap stock performance and technology and communications services as well back to you. >> thank you, dom. it's a lot for the c suite to navigate you have tariffs, geopolitics and the real help of the economy. joining us, beth comstock, former general electric vice chair is here to talk about that. >> great to be here. >> does that ring true to you? >> it's surprising given what a
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year most businesses have had. i want to know what they'll do about the fear i'm surprised the menopause businesses are expressing more concern than the big businesses. we're hearing small businesses feel good right now. >> the job of the c suite is to see through cycles so what do you think they're thinking about? >> well, volatility has to be a part of their job, that shouldn't be a surprised tariffs, inflation, u.s. elections, maybe post-election it will be interesting to see where this survey comes out but i do think -- it was interesting, the service nature of it. every company, every industry is going through digital transformation it usually takes much longer and is much more difficult than service companies imagine sod that may be playing into it as well. >> think how to navigate china must be a tricky one your former company ge and the company you're on the board of at nameky, the nike, there's sot
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stake. how are ceos thinking about that >> i think china looms largely for most ceos, global ceos, it has to, whether it's ge or nike, china is a huge market but china plays the long game and companies in china have to play the long game. you have to adapt to the variability, to the volatility i think the tariffs probably have caused a lot of c suite folks concern as they should be but news is coming out today, i think it's still early in the tariff wars so i think hopefully most c-suite folks are thinking long term in the tariffs and not overreacting. >> do you need to think about changing your area of manufacturing if you are relying on china given many people -- certainly a number of people believe this is going to be the state of affairs for years to come. >> some people are saying 20 years. depend on your perspective most companies have a very global supply chain, the
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ability -- it's not flexible, they can't just on a dime switch to another market but they have interconnected supply chains s they can make some variable changes, clearly i'm sure people are looking into that. >> then you have europe which is a whole other ball of wax. we talk about who has the edge on brexit, right >> i was in london two weeks ago. one, you wouldn't know brexit was happening in london. cranes everywhere, real estate boom, it's amazing, yet underneath the surface there's anxiety and nervousness, what does it mean i met several people who said we're thinking of moving back to europe, these are more individuals, small business people our concern, will the uk keep its edge, new innovations happening in the uk, will that keep the edge? so a lot of anxiety. we'll see what happens. >> we had a discussion with jim about the 5% mortgage and how you really -- there's a generation of traders,
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investors, just americans who have never seen that before. do you think it comes as a shock? are the things we're seeing now, the pressure on credit, the pressure on housing, is it all because of that? >> i'm not smart enough to know. but any pressure makes people put things into perspective and question it. many people are living on the edge that's the other thing we have to think about the economy is doing well but people still have individual debt, student loan debt, so i think people are living on the edge and little things -- even the perception of things we don't talk enough about perception your ceo survey is about optimism do people feel good about the future >> beth, we haven't had you on since flannery was ousted and culp came in you're a long time former executive of ge. typical ceos last for 20 years in the case of jack, 16 years in the case of jeff immelt. were you shocked and do you have a sense as to what culp is
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capable of cling to? >> i don't have any sense just from what i read i think it's interesting to have an outsider. i'm a big believer that an outside perspective helps, especially times of change he's been on the board for a reasonable period of time so he has an inside sense, so an outsider with an inside perspective is something to watch, we'll give him time, he has to move quickly. does he have a vision for the future as well as what needs to happen anyone new coming into a job, they have to recognize the strengths. there's been a lot of attention on what's wrong with ge. there's a lot right with ge and i want to hear from him as well. what are the basis of strength he's going to work with not just what he has to do to shore up the balance sheet. >> what's your sense when you think about ge >> the aviation business is amazing. an amazing business. it's making the future in manufacturing new kinds of digitization of manufacturing. digital is a huge opportunity.
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maybe there's a new path for how you do it but you can't turn your head away from the digitization of industry >> that was such a big selling point of immelt's, right the intelligent industrial economy. turn their back on that >> they may change how they do it, it would be wise to look at how do you do it but you can't turn your back on digitization of any industry now, that is part of it. it is getting that balance right, the physical world is not going away digital has to come in, how do you get that right a lot of near term challenges. how are they going to balance the near and long term >> the flannery short year, is that lost time or is there something to take from that? >> i hope it is not lost time. certainly he did what he could to get in there. it is an amazing business. is there a new model for companies like ge where it is
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more of a constellation of businesses, less of a tightly held portfolio and more of a constellation. how do you keep a piece in health care given the future of the world. >> all interesting questions we're going to be waiting to get answered over time thank you for coming in. beth comstock. jon fortt has a look at what's coming up on "squawk alley. hi, jon. >> hey, sara how should investors position themselves in tech ahead of earnings we have oracle open world this week, intel enof td he week. we take a broad look at stocks coming up on "squawk alley." ♪ ♪
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seeing a move, a half percent. among names, nectar they are putin -- they arerapeutics. you can see the fourth straight negative day and worst month since october of 2016. health care is one to watch. back to you, carl. >> thank you very much, dominic chu. lottery mania this week. no winner in friday's mega millions drawing it sent it to 1.6 billion, the next drawing is set for tomorrow no winners in saturday's powerball. that jackpot tops 620 million. guys, win both, there's $2 billion there. >> i don't get, like i bought a lottery ticket and i never do. it is so bizarre that the worst the chances are, the more people
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buy. according to a nebraska newspaper, tickets sold at 400 a minute friday, in california thursday, 5.7 million in the first half day that's a lot of losers. >> you take the money, cash up front. >> you take the annuity. >> take the annuity i think. >> but nobody does that actually >> right >> i don't play, i mean, i wouldn't want to change my life at all. >> you have a zero chance of winning. >> zero. i noticed a ticket my son bought >> that's what happens apparently he wants it >> maybe he'll share with you. coming up on "closing bell" we keep a close eye on market volatility nasdaq is positive, after being negative territory 20 minutes ago. s&p 500 is headed toward the flat line. tech, consumer, discretionary and communications services which are higher in the s&p.
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good morning, it is 8:00 a.m. at amazon headquarters in seattle, 11:00 a.m. on wall street and "squawk alley" is live ♪ ♪ ♪ california knows how to party ♪ california knows how to party ♪ in the city ♪ in the city. good monday morning. i am carl quintanilla with morgan brennan at post 9 at the new york stock exchange. jon fortt is out
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