reporting better than expected profit and revenue and arconic spiking on a report of talks to akwoir the parts maker for more than shh 11 billion. >> what's the key you are watching for tomorrow besides equal weighting. >> to see if we g goat gol are follow through. >> we are getting follow through and "fast money" which starts right now. families starts now. live from the nasdaq market site the traders stim teerm brian kelly steve grasso guy adami tonight on fast we are all over the big earnings reports after hours. facebook the big one obviously but watching electronic arts mgm reports and amgen. and julia boorts isn't all over the earnings call for facebook we check back with her a in a few moments. but first the market valuey and stocks fighting back at least for today the dow jumping 400 points

surging into the close the s&p climbing out of correction territory is this another head fake or maybe the rolly for feel. >> it's another head fake if you want me to answer the question. >> an honest answer. >> it is an honest answer. >> always appreciate it. >> a first for everything. >> no. no that's not true. come on, tim you no he that. >> you're right. >> i'm an honest person. >> sometimes i dance around the question but i wind up answering. i will answer again. it's a head fake if the s&p can maybe recapture 27109 thirt handles or so and close above that for a couple of days we have a conversation. but i think this is a head fake and moving lower with the 1.5% today there is another 4.5% to the downside the vix in my opinion if we had a true move the vix should have closed closer to 20 than 23.5. the yeah, impressive day but head falk. >> i'm starting off with head fake pap and you call these --

and inside day. >> a fugaz zbliechlt i don't know if that's legal. >> we stayed within yesterday's high and low which makes we are on trend market still confused no resolution. i would look for more resolution as the week progresses that's what makes apple even more important. >> yeah, i'd feel more comfortable if we had a big big washout day. i know we had big down days but it hasn't felt like the capitulation yet the only thing about today, about 11:00 it looked like we are falling off a cliff. the market picked itself back up that's a change in behavior. whether or not it follow yous through to tomorrow 90 is a 50/50 shot and global growth is slowing numbers from europe were not great. >> amazon and netflix around session lows the market shrugged that off but yesterday we talked about what drove it lower into the close. and and the additional tariffs

on the kbrorts from china appear trump did an interview saying a deal with china would be are could be in store. isn't the reason we went down the other day. >> they are not ready. >> first of all if we didn't have the headlines we'd have two days in a row where we rallied which we haven't done all month which is the number everyone is well aware of and only the sixth update for the month a great deal was clarified to say it will be a great deal because in fact we need to do do a deal and any deal we do is great pl brian talked about slowing growth around the world. and people tend to poo-poo the gdp. but europe grew 0.2% down from 1% where they were a quarter ago. they seem to be slowing. but consumer confidence out today in the states -- i'll feed this to the retail sector which soared like a bird consumer confidence hasn't been this high since september of

2000 right on the eve of falling off a cliff where the markets were but the consumer has jobs, wages, in a place where zbiet the fact that the housing mechanic is slower zbloots contrarien indicator then? ultimately a contrarien for today, a a retail trade. >> a terrible tell on the markets. >> a great point today, before we saw the markets sell off. a lot of the numbers don't put in to it what we have seen maybe the consumer -- i agree -- the consumer has never been in a better place than that at least in the last couple years but i think this is a little bit backward looking. >> how long is that god for sfl. >> i think the consumer confidence numbers are over ee buolient and you havea number are we haven't seen the data hitting our shores we are not going off a cliff but markets don't have more growth i don't think we have higher earnings ahead in consecutive quarters but i think the consumer in the fourth quarter is rockets. and if you look at where the xrt

into black friday last year and a similar vein we thought we were selling in off because we think the consumer is out of ammunition and they aren't. >> big section of that of higher raise. but the tailwinds to the possible rally could be a deal so we saw that with the headlines with trump a deal midterm elections going slightly than we thought they were going to go. >> different than what be, republicans. >> republicans capture both which is still if you look- in the marngen of error with the house i think it's a foregone conclusion that the republicans give up the house. but if you look at the races within the margin of error it is not impossible for the republicans to still keep the house as well. >> rockets and birds in the first five minutes of the show which is tremendous. >> soaring like birds. >> just to splay -- just to go the other way because that's what we have to do otherwise. >> are you being honest again. >> we don't have to do anything. >> we have to die and pay taxes as it turns out.

>> you do what you need to do. >> i'll make this point. i hear steve the jobs numbers are great but consumer debt to gdp is now close to 55% a level we haven't seen in ten years or so. although the consumers are very confident, in my opinion, i might be wrong -- all consumer confidence is i've said it before is the overlay of the s&p 500. as long as the market grinds higher as it's been, the skourm feels good if the market sells off in a precipice fashion. the consumer will not be as optimistic. >> the other thing about the consumer, we have this little bit yesterday which got overlooked .capital 1 financial services are tightening lending scattered showers to consumers they are not the affluence consumers but probably representative. >> is that at your house brian. >> yeah exactly. >> if you worried about the consumer in the future they have done this in a timely fashion in the past. >> yes. >> so as you are looking for a

tradeable rally catalyst, you've got the consumer you have holiday spending. you've got the election with potential tax cuts and then maybe even we talk about some kind of fiscal stimulus who knows. i'm not saying we need it at all. but i'm just saying talk like that will get you tradeable rallies. and even in a correction that can be violent can you make a lot of money off them beware of that if you are short this market you are a trader i would not be pushing shorts at these levels. >> edison let's will say bes for instance we have nordstrom up the past month .best performing consumer discretionary stock. >> macies up 10. wal-mart up 8% what do you do with niece? is this what broiing talking about a tradeable rally. >> as we get to big box retailers i'm not a fan. i think the margins are struggling there are discretionary plays within consumer and some of the brands i continue to think some luxury gets a rebound after coming to earth.

a buyer of tiffanys, lvmh. president we are in a place where we have oversold conditions let's be clear the market has been death. and if it wasn't for you know a handful of of days that gave us spring loads we have seen the market sell off after these moves. i think we need to careful but we are waiting for this repositioning to have fallen into place and slowly getting there but not out of the woods. >> last week i said the home builders and i was talking about the autos they had a relief pop. basically 15% in ford. 10% in lennar. but that only works if fang doesn't. if you see fang perform, there is not a buy the laggards anymore. you see the home builders after the facebook print start to retract. >> the auto makers home builders maybe financials lose some steam. >> yeah i think people will say hey, if i can make it with the horse that lorjly got me here on a discount they'd rather do that than to buy a ford that let's be

honest we are buying it for a trade if you buy at these levels. >> are we having a bull come on -- the first time appearance on the cnbc "fast money. you fade the rally the move is lower. >> agreed. >> the next guest says the october selloff is over done phil jp morgan asset management strategist great to have you here. >> thank you. >> why has it gotten extreme to the downside. >> well at the end of the day there is one thing that we're watching we see a very low probability of two things two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth in the next three or four quarters and we see a low probability of inflation running out of control. if those things are in place you got a the 10% off sale in the stock market but here is what's catching our attention in the month the lack of a v is because guess what you get paid more on cash right now. so cash isn't trash anymore. it's not zero. it's not the most greatest asset

class. but i think cash as an alternative it's not a high opportunity cost anymore to be out of the market. the second thing is for a decade we have gone long the equity market because we knew that if we were wrong about growth we would get protected with say fixed income ten-year treasury rates and 5 basis points higher than this month. putting those things in motion we are not panicking in the trade. we are right sizing the equity allocation that's coming down this month. but the highest confidence bet remains the u.s., not the rest of the world be the em not europe it's the u.s. >> when you look at fang names for instance, it's more than 10% off sale it's 20% off sale pb 30% off sale do you see those as valuable as the rest of the market or is there a value trade. >> here is what happens with tech folks consider a tech flight to quality asset class. it went up like crazy. when folks were worried about the equity market they said let me hide in fang. and tech is not a flight to

quality sector what we have seen this earnings period is that that the growth proposal yum that you had to pay for all year that hurdle got too high doesn't mean the companies are trash. it means the hurdle quote too high to pay up for the growth that could be a buying opportunity. >> i'm looking around the globe and you said slowing grouting. how can the u.s. outperform how can we not be worried about the u.s. economy if everything around us is slowing. >> a couple of things i say there, first we are not saying that we are going to have 25% earnings growth again next year. we are not saying that we are also not saying we are going into recession if the rest of the world grows at trend and the key again is inflation -- the fed has to be over the next six months, months a little bit more dovish here. if you get to that point where they pause, that could be another boost for the u.s. equity market. and what we -- ironically that might be what you need to invest

elsewhere. because if the dollar weakens that's a tailwind for the emerging markets. >> phil, welcome to the show great to have. >> you thank you >> you have a problem with what i just said. >> faced away from softening the blow my point is if you don't have tech to take leadership and doesn't sound like you are ready to jump back in the 10, 20, 30% off in the big cap tech who leads us out is it bikinis bombed out industrial names that's proven the last three years a difficult row. >> financials can you make a case for two things. you can make the case that every time the federal funds rate goes up all the cash that jp morgan and every other company is sitting on that cash becomes more profitable. deregulation is also important here if the financials start to put divides back -- we haven't seen that in a long time -- that could be a push for financials but when you've gotten this incredible selloff like in october. this is the first year since 1950 that the market dropped 10%

twice in the same calendar year. folks are scared, paniciced. we think there is value to be seen right now. >> phil, you just as a follow-up you said the market needs to right size size. you had said that. >> reducing. >> reducing in equities. if the market now as cash as a competition. >> yeah. >> right and the market now know that is rates are moving higher, does that right size happen 100 hams from here or 300 handles from here? it splounds sounds like even you are. >> it's happening now. it's happening now so what we're saying here is u.s. equity market versus the rest of the world looks attractive cash looks a little bit more attractive and not getting the protection you normally got in defensive fixed income that's why you take equities down the posture gets more defensive. but u.s. still makes up the lion share of our view. you have to right size it based on the fact that we haven't seen the dynamics since this whole bull market began.

the whole dynamic of cash -- only three fies the temper tantrum february and october of this year where you haven't gotten protection from treasuries that can caught our attention. what also caught our attention is we see no risk of inflation running away >> that makes the mistake of a fed even more possible if you don't see inflation running away then rates can sky rocket. we can invert the yield curve. then you wind uppulling yourself in a risk that. >> that's a tail risk. that real kind of high raise in rates is a risk. not the base case. why? because the fed has gone eight times. they're likely to go it nine times in the tightening cycle. they have gone a lot we are going to hopefully get a point sometime next year where they say, you know, things are about where we want them to be and then look out below on the dollar that creates hopefully another nice run for equities. >> phil great to have you with us. >> sure. >> thanks for joining us. >> phil from jp morgan.

>> everybody needs a name. great name. >> definitelier than phil camperly. >> i'm not as optimistic as he is i understand what steve is saying i think there is tremendous risk to the downside, the wild card with the chinese deal getting done are you a fan of homeland security. >> i watched it. >> we don't give anything away because i didn't watch. >> phil was a dead ringer for dante allen and homeland am i right. >> split screen next time he is on. >> just say sfwloog we'll be all the over the after hours action throughout the show. facebook just turned lower in the after hours session. now down about 1.25% electronic arts, ee bay. am fen also on the move as we monitor conference calls apple launching a slough of new products but the stock sat out the rally. we tell what you it could mean and later retails ripping higher some of the beaten down names

showing life but should you trust the bounce? live from times square in new york city, much more "fast money" right after this. you're still here? we're voya! we stay with you to and through retirement. i get that voya is with me through retirement, i'm just surprised it means in my kitchen. so, that means no breakfast? voya. helping you to and through retirement. whooo! want to take your next vacation to new heights? tripadvisor now lets you book over a hundred thousand tours, attractions, and experiences in destinations around the world!

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welcome back to "fast money. we have a news alert on comments

from jp morgan ceo jamie dimon let's get to eamon javers in d.c. >> jamie dimon speaking at a conference sponsored by jp morgan at ucla giving his take here on the battle between the united states and china, whether or not it's a trade war and what its impact is likely to be here is what he had to say. >> a trade war is that people stop trading with each other and that they immediately change supply lines and that will -- that will rattle the global economy. there is no question about that. that is a lot of movement around the world then you are going to have foreign trading partnership partnering taking actions. you can offset it could cause a recession. >> jamie. >> but it's not a war. okay a war is people pick up guns and people die >> so dimon there saying it's not as serious as a war obviously in which people are shooting at each other but laying out the sowers economic consequences coming from a trade war.

the nuance here we need to find out more information on is whether or not dimon thinks we are in a trade war right now or whether this is red had he hadded to a trade war and whether or not he thinks the current situation is one that could cause a recession. something to monitor there in terms of the comments from jp morgan's jamie dimen >> thank you eamon in terms of tariffs we could could get another round of tariffs on the remaining comports from china. the tariffs in place could move up to 25% come the greer unless there are developments at g20 in argentina it's a slippery slope. >> the prom is this is not a trade war. and forget the terminology, because it's obviously not a war with guns. but it's not a skirmish. and in fact this is a geopolitical standoff. this is not your father's trade war. this is absolutely about geopolitical dominance of technology for the next century or beyond. and there is no reason why either side will let off quickly. i think that's why you have to

be a bit concerned and that's why i don't think when we see headlines like we saw yesterday that's why i think this market is reacting every time. >> and the yuan hitting the lowest level in 10 years. >> the chinese economy is slowing. and slowing before this. the prom is the uncertainty. we don't know how long this is going on initially everybody said, hey, it's going to be short this is negotiating tactic we are coming to agreement we have come to agreement with canada and with mexico we'll come to agreement potentially with europe. but then it comes down to china. that adds uncertainty and how much is that slowing the u.s. economy. >> you know, again, i keep coming back to it. we say when our president is ready to make a deal there will be a deal. i don't know if that works that way. i think it's more when the chinese are ready they'll make a deal i don't see any reason for them to be ready. understanding the market has gotten -- >> to tim's point there are

tariffs around the whole bigger issue that it's impossible to really sort of mend it the way that canada was mended or mexico was mended it is going to be difficult. but i believe they're getting something done even if it's baby steps. >> in the meantime we hear did -- we talk about this -- commentary on the conference call about the negative impact on tariffs holding back cap exet cetera the fed is data dependent and we have this debate but as as the markets fwriend and there is volatility it's because of this. has the data changed is that consider data in the eyes of the fed that changed >> potentially here is what you have to understand we talked about the consumer but the tariffs you know who pays we do the president talks about billions of dollars coming in. when what happens is our companies have to pay a higher tariff to bring it in. fast on to consumers that reflective in the data yet? probably not

maybe that's what the st. croix market is looking for. but i would say that is something as long as it continues -- right, if we had the trade skirmish osh whatever we call it that's reflected in the data thengs will be 25% higher. >> i think there is a deleterious effect pork farmer there will be pork bought from other parts of the world. that's not coming back new core steel prices all time highs down 49% on average across the board since the tariffs were nounsed thousand are they doing. you can't tell me the businesses aren't beings. >> delete yurs. >> we've been -- are you okay? are you holding up. >> i'm doing -- i'm enjoying up big words all night like. it would be fantastic a great show. >> it wouldn't actually be a good show. >> it would be an okay show. >> it's interesting if the fed does -- let's say the fed takes a pause, what does that mean for

the u.s. dollar? maybe the dollar gets smacked. our buying power as a consumer goes down. maybe that's not necessarily good >> the market does rip knee jerk. >> knee north america. >> knee jerk the market rids. >> check out where we stand with facebook the stock all over the map here. it is now down by almost 4%. this happened at the ceo made comments on the conference call. we tell bhau he said that moved that stock lower i'm melissa lee. rsif b watching "fast money," fit usiness worldwide. much more "fast money" coming up next

welcome back to "fast money. ceo mark zuckerberg speaking on the earnings call moments ago. julia boorstin here it tell us more about what he said that sent the stock lower. >> the shares moved lower asset zuckerberg made warnings about business challenges facing the company and transitions. he said that 2019 will be near year of significant investment to make the platform safe.

and also shift revenue to businesses both around private messaging and video. he spoke to the challenge about transitioning facebook users from reliance on the news and advertisers news feed to the stories format he said that transitioned started off slower than they hoped. he warned about the challenge of userer interactions with stories on ads as profitable >> i want to be up-front that even assuming we get to where we want to go from a feet only world to a feed plus stories world, it will take some time and the revenue growth may be slower during that period like it was while transitioning the product to mobile. >> reporter: zuckerberg also warning about their investment in video and another transition there take a listen. >> beyond the mission challenges of video displaysing social interactions, there is also a business challenge, which is that video monetizes significantly less well per minute than people interacting

and feeds. this means even though we made the community more community other thanned minimized displaysment as video grows it displays some services where we probably make more money. >> reporter: so you are hearing a lot of warnings there about transitions and business challenges now he did speak about the value of fem what's ach as a build business around it he talked about the potential for users and advertisers. he said that what's app is so stronger because of the record on privacy and the systems are set up so that messages can't be seen orp accessed by government or bad actors. back to that term booed bad actors but he said the mid-terms will be a big test of the privacy and the protections on the platform they've been investing so much in melissa, the call is going on now. i'm sure we will hear mores countries and more from david wayner about what we can expect in terms of development dollars next year back to you. >> julia, thank you. facebook dropping down 4.5%.

i hear what julia said and i hear this is a company trading at 20 times next year earnings and we have higher spending and slow transition moving to stories et cetera and a feed. >> less profit. >> like 2 q. >> and revenue growth slower. >> and their maus -- they're saturated. they have everybody on the platform that they can ever get on, now they can't charge them as much as they used to. or can't get the adds they used to that's a recipe for a lower stock price. we talked about the fangs being the growth area. this doesn't sound like a growth stock anymore. >> interesting cbw has been over all over this. and tim has been -- everything sthaer they are saying in the quarter. i thought it wouldn't hold 150 the overshoot now in the middle of the overshoot to the downside but at a certain point everything you said is accurate. the company gets interesting understanding valuation a nebulous term on valuation. >> there is a reason it trades

16 times next year because it doesn't stev the high multiple does it deserve the high multiple it's the question i've been asking for six mohns even before july. when mark zurich zuckerberg says i want to be up front what you what toes that imply in erms it of what he has he not been up front about? c suites that don't understand the complexity of the data and the business risk are getting banged around with a multiple -- facebook is not going out of business there is $2.6 billion users i want to be clear but what multiple does the company deserve when this management team continuing to not be able to tell you the costs, the costs. >> any don't know. >> this is. >> they don't know. >> ant costs have gone up they told you second quarter they are going up going up. >> for more on facebook gene munster, great to have you with us what's your take so far >> it's not good in part because we talk about

the engagement going from dau growth of 14%, 3/4s ago to 9%. but there is something bigger going on facebook ht glory days of organic growth where it was viral usage, didn't cost them a lot of money to build that now they are shifting in a phase. this is the reason the stock is trading down in the after market the third consecutive quarter, talking about more investment than has been expected that's a shift of a company when it becomes a growth company to a non-growth company this is reminiscent of what happened to yahoo! as googled gained from search and yahoo! needed to aggressively invest. i think that the company is essentially scrambling to stay ahead of the changing business. >> so you mentioned the third quarter in a row of spending more than it average originally said, gene we had the debate before we went to you, that i think -- do you think the company has a handle on how much it needs to spend, whether it be to stay ahead of competition and/or to stay ahead

of regulators to keem them off their backs? >> the simple answer is no and this is a different facebook than a year or two ago when they gave expectations about more spending and ultimately spending less than they said they would we are seeing the opposite and the reason is you are right. the business is shifting more quickly than what they had expected for example, a couple quarters ago it was about users and privacy and cambridge analytic and trying to get that under control. now they are talking about the increase of video on the platform and monetizing lower or the shift from facebook feed to private najt engagement through messaging and stories appear how that's a need-term headwind and they need invest in that there is difficulty of the user behavior around facebook and instagram is changing that's causing more investment which means that it's open-ended as far as how long it takes for them to sort it out. >> gene, now when you candidate have an amazon breathing down

their neck as far as ad spend going towards amazon versus facebook, is that another thing where now facebook is not the only gorilla in the room >> it is and still facebook has incredible reach we are talking about 2.5 billion monthly users. that outpaces some platforms but google is a formal competitor and i think that this is more about a natural shift in terms of how people are communicating away from this the decade-period of public engagement to different forms. they mentioned on the call in the u.s. i memg something the prefrmt messaging platform and they said it's unlikely they make meaningful gains on that because imessage is embedded in iphones. it's those things -- maybe it's more about those than competition that is impacting theis. >> what's your grade for the quarter, gene? >> i started out as a c plus before the earnings call

and i might have to drift to c minus given the update in terms of how the video and the messaging is exacting, also the increased spending we're at c minus tas stands. this that may change throughout the call. >> still a half hour gene, thanks for phonecall in. gene with loop ventures. we have seen a dramatic reversal in facebook shares moments ago, the stock was down six% now hovering at plat line. more from julia. >> yes, interesting comment artery are from cf on the david wayner he said in q 4 they expect the growth rate to deaccelerate by single digit percentage. revenue dproegt rate was 33% on the quarter. that's when the stock kipped more but recovered -- recovering a bit when he gave some guidance around the expense outlook he said the expect aches is the full-ier -- full-year 2018 total

expenses to grow in the 50 to 5 a% range, versus the provide range of 50 to 60% tightening the range and bringing it down to the lower end of the range also saying they anticipate the full-year capital expenditures to be approximately 14 to 14.5 billion compared to the prior estimate of $15 billion. so that full cap exrange is down below the prior estimates. i think that's why we see the stock moving up slightly though still down a little bit less than 1% so a lot of concern here, it seems, about the expenses and the q and a session is ongoing we are jumping back on and see what else happens. >> all right process and julia, quickly in terms of the provider guidance of 50 to 60% growth in cap exfor a toemgts of 15 billion was that change the second quarter also i'm wondering if we should believe the numbers as firm guidance. >> well i think what we are seeing in facebook is they are investing so much in the safety appear security issue.

we have seen the employee base grow dramatically every quarter. and they are trying to sort out mouch this issue of the safety security, the tens of thousands of people they hired are going to have to hire are going to really impact the bottom line. so they point to issues in terms of revenue because that's an issue and they see the deacceleration in revenue and this is new for the quarter, expecting more of the impression growth, growth in where adz coming from coming from product services and geoography, making more monies overseas for ads and that's not as profitable that's a question sort of how much growth comes internationally and also as they grow stories, which is the new ad form, this they are going to be relying on for growth it's less profitable especially right now. i think that's a big factor that's going to impact revenue then in terms of capital expenditures and expenses overall expenses i think a lot of that is going to be impacted

by the cost of safety and security >> right julia, thanks. julia boorstin we will check in as she has more news here. do we believe the guidance >> do we believe. >> i mean, obviously they are going to give us guyedens they believe. do you think it holds firm >> do they have any real understanding of what this is going to cost. this is not a community of sharing. this is about data -- prokourg whatever you want with data. does require a couple of coders. it's major expenditure and cap exand security major. >> but the good news people aren't freeing facebook. yeah request, daus were down slightly monthly average down slight. total users down slightly but people are not fleeing people would be fleeing saying we have a problem houston. but they are spending money to try to make the experience better which is at the end is probably good. they dent know how much they need to spend which is a problem. some point, againing with o, valuation is interesting. >> here is the problem i don't think they are spending money to

make the experience better they are spending money to keep the finger in the dig. it's regulations nothing they spend on is saying i can get more money out of advertisers. this is like maintenance of a -- of a legacy type of business i mean, for me, i don't think in- dsh it doens deserve the multiple it's trading at, no longer a growth stock. >> i would love to hear it i'm not sure about the kmeentary, the impact of gdp on useners europe and the monetization in europe because if the u.s. is close to adopting a gdp r which not many expect. but that could give us an mts view on how it impacts the core business in the u.s. >> i get what he is saying the came from july at 217 then lower highs since august i do think at some points attractive with you if they don't the expenses and less profitable, how are we supposed to know that you could see it trade volatile process. i wouldn't step in just yet. >> i just think investors have a

tool in the tool box which is understand how executives deal with the complexity of governance and data risk in business and that means the multiple you put on is what you are willing to pay for it. it's cheap for a ren it doesn't mean the company is going out of business. it means it doesn't need to trade at 25 or 30 times. >> all right we will monitor the facebook call if you still ahead with electronic arts sinking after the earnings report the stock shellacked this month, down 20% we bring you headline. plus retail stocks, a pricing winner over the laste n. wca should you trust the bounce? thalon the inside... ...& that way you can focus on expanding into eastern europe... ...& that makes the branch managers happy & yes, that's the branch managers happy. money" returns it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on.

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we have a news alert on comments made by the former fed chair janet yellen let's get to ylan muy in d.c. >> melissa yellen was speaking with steve liesman at the conference earlier she said there was a danger that the economy could overheat but now she acknowledges that there is a risk the fed could tight. too much and that would increase around the year 2020 she spoke about the deficit and that's a major problem and the u.s. is on a unsustainable path for the national debt. she said if she had a magic wand she would raise taxes and cut retirement spending. she is concerned about the impact on investment spending over the next year or two. but she sees only a temporary and small impact on inflation.

she said she doesn't see inflation pressures building rapidly. yellen also defended the fed's independence in light of criticism from president trump, saying she would do what jay powell is doing which is to keep calm on carry on. >> ylan, thank you 2020, that seems to coincide with where many people think a recession could enter the picture. >> right, exactly. and again that is what the stock market tells you the confounding or the conundrum if you will and see the bond market hasn't said that. the bond market is still predicting a lot of growth next year and not necessarily predicting a recession i know the yield curve is flat but if you look at the 10-year they say there is a disconnect. >> you think there is a disconnect between yellen and powell as well actually not, because powell said that inflation is not in any danger of running away. >> right. >> are we surprised that janet yellen is dovish

all she is doing is pressing dove, dove, dove the fed infence god blesser this is an important point. i would expect every major fed official outside of the fed should continue this but everything she said sounds like a fed that wants to be dovish that's what she was. >> good for janet doing a book tour. >> talking to liesman in d.c. >> i don't think she said anything ground breaking obviously the fed should be independent. good for her recession in 2020 i think market sell off causes a recession more than a recession causes a sell off. >> what would you do with a magic wand. >> buy the new york knicks and make wholesale changes you asked the question. >> great answer. >> is that what you go for first if you had a magic wand. >> world peace, cure hunger. you buy the knicks. >> he said he was always honest. >> deep. >> i guess it's the honesty to a fault. still heyde, ee bay soaring

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welcome wak to "fast money." we have a quick earnings update. check out ebay the stock rallying up almost 6% after the earning boat and it's not the only sign of consumer strepgt in the market.

bob pisani at the nys he breaking it down. >> is the retail hitting a bottom after a month where retail sold off with the rest of the market most retailers having a good weak aseen pi appear macies and chicos up 10% in a couple days most gains coming today. still most of the retailers do not report earnings for several weeks now. the question for retailers is simple are we near or at peak sales comp store sales have been great through the second quarter up about 4.7% in the second quarter. expected to slow down a bit in q 3. now expected to be up about 3% still good but remember, remember what's going on, the wig trade this year in retail has been go long amazon and short bricks and mortar retailers there is a partial unwind of the trade going on since amazon reported a and as amazon moves on many are covering smorts in bricken a mortar that's why retailer rally. given the peak sales concerns it's little wonder the retailers

have been down since the second quarter despite the recent gains. luxury a worry athletic brands like nike a and under armour and lulu lemon down 8, 9%, 10% since the second quarter. but the worst performers have been those selling accessories mike cores and tap evidentiary, formerly coach the at that pointivery did beat on the bottom line they raised the low end of the guidance range but we have more to go in retailers back to you. >> thanks, bob sounds like bob is saying you don't want to believe the bounce in the bricks and mortar retail zbleers it has been a good -- when we go to the smart board there. >> the plasma. >> and we do the thing. >> working on power point. >> power point power pitch and if you call back in the summer it was august. we power pitched jw ford strom now that's off to the races bounced, flat lined at 60. next leg higher. if you think about buying it in

earnest of to have your head examined given the valuation it has now. you own it into earnings on the 15th but pull the rip cord on this. >> the problem you have is the dynamic gnat price signal doesn't necessarily mean that things are better. it just means long short hedge ds funds are unwinding a position i wouldn't read too much into the rally the last couple days. >> but things are better better for the consumer and better for the business. think of where we were all niece guys we thought they are broken. a lot of people naught macies was out of business. that's what we heard 12 months ago. macies trades 8.5 times. they have the business model in order. and ebay what happened with ebay, the expectation going into this printy terrible. as adjusted roughly about 8 times adjusted p.e this is great stock. it doesn't deserve the high rate multiple >> but most moves are happening in the last month. they've been up.

i grow it's an unwind of this. what do we hear about the holiday season, probably not as rosy i would lock ht profits and get out of the trades sooner rather than later. >> remember people aren't going just to amazon anymore other people are online. >> coming up check out shares of electric ib arts sinking in the after hours session. the stock down 20% in this mthon alone. instant reaction from wall instant reaction from wall street about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today. money" returns

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money. video game jiept electronic arts sinking after hours. seema mody has the latest from the newsroom. >> on the conference call management touted its cities rowe success with fifa redemption 27 made by rival take 2 interactive listen in. >> despite the fact of red dead redemption taking up a lot of attention in the marketplace we have one of our strongest fifa weekends ultimate team weekends we have seen in a long time we are confident and but also careful in how we forecast we want to make sure we are being straightforward with investors. >> shares of ea down about 5% in extended trade after q 3 guyedens disappointed. melissa. >> seema, thanks seema mody in the newsroom guy, what do you think. >> facebook- electronic arts was $150 stock earlier this year trading at $90 this is where it took off from back if the spring i understand where it came from. take two going up i think the

stock is interesting at shh 90 this is where this accelerated from back in the spring this is where it holds the next couple weeks. >> the core franchises need to remain strong and it's a crowded october on releases. i have to say, $30 ago or 30% ago i thought the stock deserve the multiples which was somewhere around 30 times. that's the big question right now. >> this getting bring battle field five trail activision blizzard but they stayed away from the releases in october to take a little bit of the air themselves come november. >> fortnite, tough to compete. >> i'm a buyer at 80 sometime you get the buns. but it's closer to 80. i think in in environment unless you execute it's going to be very hard to get investors come in and full force. >> up next final check and facebook now after hours highs what a is session. more "fast money" when we come

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in advance for a full refund. so your whole trip... will be smooth sailing! read reviews check hotel prices book things to do tripadvisor well let's get a final check on facebook. wow, the stock at after hour session highs up by a% following a wild ride. it had been done 6%. gene munster telling us that zuckerberg sounded more positive about the earning growth during the q appear a backing off the prepared remarks that's why we see the turn around in the stock. do we hold the levels what do we look at tomorrow, guy. >> i think so.

well i don't want to give away the final trade. i won't. but the fact that i have no idea. >> you have no idea. >> the fact that they didn't lose users, weren't hemorrhaging use certifies a encouraging sign i think it holds the gains. >> tech had a good day for a change does this help tomorrow? >> of course i mean, and obviously if tech can hold here, maybe we have a short term bottom pef with to chop wood test the february lows but if large cap tech does well the market does well. >> victoria secret struggle a long time will have a strongest fourth quarter just got numbers stay in this trade. it's bombed oh ut. >> bk. >> for bk stay with the spending rating ondefense spending coming. >> grasso. >> i like ford but remember, if large cap tech does well ford doesn't keep it on a short leash. >> guy. >> unfortunate we didn't do the final trades when facebook waste

trading 1.44 dance with the girl you brought. >> you want to sell it now guy. >> no, tim facebook. facebook to you, mel. >> back tomorrow at 5:00 with more fast. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. at this point in the business cyc