tv Mad Money CNBC October 31, 2018 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> dan, great costume tonight by the way. >> what are you going as. >> a bullish costume. >> tony braxton siel be the hand some brothers 15 years in the row. the best member of gang in my view. here tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now ♪ my mission is simple -- to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm trying to make you some money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate you and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer a day where the dow surged 241
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points, the s&p pole vaulted up 1.09% and it skyrocketed more than 2.9% what happens if the stocks make up f.a.n.g. -- they make a come back is anybody ready for that move now that the hedge fund managers have given up on facebook, amazon, netflix and alphabet and the stocks that back them are regarded as frauds and clown shows. all right, call me a chowder head but at the end of the day they're true disrupters. i think it's mistake to write them off how many times have i said that? well, let me go through them one by one first there's the "f," facebook. they got hit with a slew of price target cuts and a lot of chatter about how the turn around is still a work in progress yet, the stock roared higher
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higher because the important thing here is that a turn is even possible. after all the negativity and disappointment on wall street, i seems likes the big advertisers like clorox who we'll hear later from on the show decided to stick with facebook. not only that, the advertisers are spending a fortune on instagram stories. oddly facebook will be able to monetize the other products. while i can't say it's back i do think the company is now in a position to overpromise and underdeliver look, facebook has done some bad things the traditional media companies blast them for good reason but how are they supposed to connect with the people who don't read or cut the cord? and it's costing you less than 8 bucks a share for 2019 even if you assume facebook only deserves a 20 multiple or to trade at 20 times earnings which
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is the lowest most money managers will pay for a company that still has 20% growth, you'd still get $160 stock given the new found expense control and excellent growth i would argue that facebook deserves a higher multiple that's -- let's say you value it like clorox who had 4% growth the stock would trade at $184 a share. how about amazon even after the run today, this stock -- this company has become despised on wall street. just despised. it's extraordinary a month ago amazon was trading at $2,000 a share. everybody loved it now it's just below $1,600, everybody hates it spent some time in the 1400s, egads, people hated me for that. theoretically all of the major businesses have been called into question of late as investors try to figure out how the
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company could have great earnings but so short on sales so short, like a penny we have heard that advertising must be slowing down or that amazon web services is getting beat by it, much less azure after the terrific quarter from mr. softy. and then it got crushed yet again by a new theory. amazon which now pays workers $15 an hour is losing market share to walmart and tabernacle which are better than amazon and pay their workers a lot less the big box chains are playing to the strong suit brick and mortar, omni channel is the most convenient way to shop and for once, they're quaking and they're selling. sell sell sell sell. me, sorry. i believe in amazon. they have a fabulous opportunity to reach those at the point of sale the best place to get. i doubt that ibm's acquisition of red hat will hurt them which
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has a terrific relationship with i want ibm to succeed. but they won't overtake amazon in the cloud regardless it's a huge market. above all though i don't think that online shopping or advertising or cloud are slowing down which means amazon has nothing to fear. next up, netflix this company reported a spectacular quarter but it gave up all the gains and then some -- and because it was in the grips of a hideous marketwide down turn netflix is off roughly 120 points in the highs here stock lost more than a quarter of the value based on i don't know, valuation. let me put it this way you're not getting that last quaet for free, but at a more than 10% discount before they shot the lights out. intriguing alphabet is probably the biggest quandary the cfo, did i tell you that everyone thinks she's one of the
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smartest people ever and then you listen to the horrible things that were said. you know what i thought alphabet had a pretty superb quarter. had about $100 billion in the bank, great balance sheet. alphabet's mistake was a poor run. they disappointed from what they said it would do and look, these are key metrics. alphabet got both of them wrong. they forecast wrong revenue and wrong earnings however, if you listen to the conference calls which the algorithms don't because the smartest people are dumb as wood, it was a terrific call i read over and over it. i think that's why they have made a dramatic comeback and now people are reading the call. even though there were multiple price target cuts and so many people say that the halcion days are way behind them, i think this is attractive
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plus, alphabet will start the waymo in the -- in the numbers waymo's prospects give the company a huge leg up on 2019. few of the remaining analysts who still like alphabet, well, they didn't promote it i don't know everyone is so gun shy it's crazy okay now we have a lot of lunacy in the market last night facebook reported, it went up and then rebounded to the mid 140s i was watching the whole gang of f.a.n.g. like a hawk and they practically traded in lock step in after hours with facebook's hours of zigzags and the same thing happened today they were lock step. this is, ladies and gentlemen, irrational behavior but it's the power of etfs. when one rallies they all rally as we saw with facebook only gaining 4% and the rest of
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f.a.n.g. following suit. this kind of moronic action is stupid these four companies are so different. sure they have an overlap but you know what they have in common the fact that put them together using the first letter of their company and they used to spell the word f.a.n.g which is why at "mad money" coined the acronym five years ago. i never thought i'd say this but i don't know who created the silly thing. it was good for one dive the year these days. it's this day. all right? that's all it should be worth. i foolishly came up with the darn acronym and now there are ten f.a.n.g. etfs link them all together shameless and stupid i guess they make a lot of fees doing this stuff, right? they make fees is that what it is one more point i want to make. there are other etfs to spell it with two as, faang
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apple will talk about the chinese slowdown tomorrow and they might have a miss in service revenue or other issues i haven't thought of some revenue miss that will make my admonition about owning apple, which i have had it at 180 points look bad. just as bad by sticking by facebook, amazon and netflix not as good for me so getting ready for more short term volatility, plus i have to admit that the charts here remain terrible and the newly formed facebook will roll over tomorrow and the bottom line here, there's a reason that the four companies have been able to disrupt entire industries over and over again and that's the fundamentals not that they're made up with the f, a and the g when they screw up they're incredible companies and they're despised as much as i have ever seen you know what? i don't blame people becaused they're linked together with the
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stupid fees -- fee generating etfs that everyone says don't worry about it f.a.n.g., the stocks i'm not worried so much. tom in new jersey, tom >> caller: hello, jim. i'm a builder and an investor. i use many suppliers simply because of lack of customer service. and this company has made my job work like a well oiled machine lately and it's got my attention. i see the sales. i see home depot is listening to the customers. earnings are coming. what's your thoughts, jim? >> home depot uses salesforce.com and here's how stupid we are. we are in a wave of stupidity. we should sell home depot, but it was at 215, they have a big buy back and a great balance sheet. how about buying them and if they slam it, buying more? what's the matter with that idea it's called rationality.
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let's go to ryan in michigan >> caller: hey, jim. congratulations on getting golden tate, but i'm a cowboys fan. >> all right well, we'll see you at two sundays from now hold up there, the home game for me >> caller: all right i'm a long time viewer of your program and i'm currently in a management leadership position in our rv dealership so i think i have some insight. but i want to get your take on camping world. they currently sit or are at 52 week lows recently this week. >> yeah. >> caller: yeah. thor recently bought -- and became a global company and also thor is very diversified in the product offerings. so september industry wholesale report they're down almost 29%. >> right well, here's what's going on the numbers haven't been good. for thor the numbers are okay for camping world. but higher gasoline prices made it so that people have been buying fewer of these. higher interest rates make it so
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that the market has cooled higher costs for thor because they make a -- assemble at lot of the lot of the stuff in indiana and this is negative now is the time to really start raising the rates. we have to drive down thor, of course he's not thinking like that only thinking people are thinking like that i expect more volatility tomorrow after apple reports but don't lose sight of the f.a.n.g. reports are not backed up by a stupid acronym that i came up. on "mad money," clorox has come a long way from bottles of bleach but can it keep cleaning up they had a 4% growth and i'll talk to ceo then wingstop headed higher yesterday, and then it started to go down is it the perfect time to take a bite i have the ceo look for a play to keep the lights on after the recent bout of volatility.
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i'm talking about american electric power see if it can play in a tough market, at least in utilities so stay with f.a.n.g. and stay with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets send jim an e-mail to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc call at 1-800-743-cnbc missomhi setng head to madmoney.cnbc.com.what'? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers)
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at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. i know everyone is feeling exuberant today, but let's not forget there are some worries here clorox one of the best out there. it's a terrific consumer package goods stock, it has fantastic leadership this morning they reported a strong quarter modest top and bottom line beat but management was forced to cut the full earnings forecast the problem -- clorox blamed out on cost and currency head winds answer and between the strong dollar taking a little hit, they
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sold up on 3% so what do we make of the results let's dig deeper with benno dorer, the ceo welcome back to "mad money.." >> good to be back happy halloween from san francisco. >> back at you, benno. this had a lot of puts and takes and you ended up making the number you that's not an issue. you kept the forecast like other package goods but i know you're not happy with charcoal or what happened with renew life and out of stock supply. so can you address this for me because these are highly unlike what i expect from clorox and from you. >> yeah, a lot of puts and takes. first of all we grew 4% the last quarter. 6% currency neutral on top of 4%
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growth last fiscal year. so those are very good numbers especially in this tough environment. we are executing well overall and our health of our portfolio is very strong we had two parts of the portfolio that we're addressing, charcoal where we're putting stronger plans in place and confident that we can turn the business around in 2019. and renew life we are facing temporary issues that are related to out of stocks following supply chain problems. again, very solid business and we like the long term trajectory overall, we're executing very well in a tough environment. which is why we have been able to hold our sales outlook and we have taken our earnings outlook down mostly because of lower share repurchases, about 70 to 75% of the lower earnings due to that so they're nonoperational. what we're executing we're executing well and focusing on what we can control. >> now, is it a high quality problem what happened with renew life in other words, the supply chain problems had to do with so much demand or is it just really hard to get product because it's so
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expensive now to ship things >> yeah, we're seeing two things first of all, we have seen very irregular ordering patterns from major customers and that is nothing special in the vitamins, minerals, supplements category but newer to us. then we made integration related, very good changes in the long term that have hurt us in the last quarter. but we're going to benefit from those and we are now focused on getting the consumer back and we're doing that with innovation, doing that with new packaging graphics we are doing that with very strong claims, touting the superior value that we renew life offers to consumers relative to the market leaders importantly we are focused on e-commerce e-commerce is the fastest growing segment in this business it's growing about 50% and growing market share in e-commerce so we are doubling down on what's already working.
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>> so benno, it's everybody's -- it's the higher cost of raw materials, higher cost of logistics. when will these anniversaries so that they're not a problem -- they shouldn't just continue to go up. there is a limit to how things -- how much things can go up endlessly i know that causes a hit short term but at a certain point can't we just say you know what, this is going to end >> logistics is going to remain a head wind but less so in the back half for us in the fiscal year as we start to anniversary the run-up to unpack it, we're missing 50,000 truck drivers in this country today and that's because the job of a truck driver is less attractive today than it was years ago. and as a result, for every available truck there are seven available loads. that's two to three times higher than years ago so that all puts pressure on the supply chain costs that is why a clorox we're
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leaning into cost savings and modern accretive innovation and into pricing we were the first company in the industry to lean into pricing based on the strength of the portfolio. based on the experience that we have executing price increases and based on our analytics price increases have gone very well out of the gate consumption is strong. we have grown 5% volume this last quarter and this is the key reason why even in this difficult cost environment we are projecting gross margin expansion in the back half. >> i think some of the analysts were feeling wait a second, you're slowing down your repurchase plan. if things are going to get better in the back half, why not buy stock now before it goes up on better than expected earnings >> well, you know, we try to be very disciplined with share repurchases and the reason why we have taken down the outlook and told investors that we're going to buy less this fiscal year was -- had much to do with
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what's already happened. so this is mostly a case of the share repurchases that we have made in the last four months, which have been lower than we anticipated initially. and that's because we have a very disciplined approach to repurchases and we're doing certainly what's right for shareholders so, you know, we focus on what we can control stock price is not something we can control. and we're also per today not trying to win every single day but trying to win the fiscal year and every three years, every five years, ten years. certainly we have done very well for our shareholders over a prolonged period of time and we have done so by focusing on what we can control so we'll stay the course on that. >> you said tariffs can be 5 to 7% where does that come into play that worries me from the point of view as a consumer. >> yeah. 5 to 7 cents in earnings is
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included in our outlook right now, jim that's mainly really to do businesses, predominantly brita where we're doing imports. it's not a big deal in the grand scheme of things most of what we manufacture we manufacture in the united states the united states is our home and it's also where we're focused in terms of our growth activities so we feel like tariffs is something that is not a very big factor in our outlook. even if it changes in january. we feel like we're in a pretty good shape as far as tariffs are concerned. >> excellent well, i think that the -- it's been one of the best performers in the group almost at the high so i totally understand benno dorer, chairman and ceo of clorox which has been my favorite in the consumer stocks and even with things that went wrong, the company still did pretty good. "mad money" is back. coming up -- is wingstop ready to take flight to the heated restaurant space?
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this restaurant is spreading its wings, going digital and disrupting with delivery can wingstop add some spice to your portfolio >> okay, what happened to the stock? monday night the chicken wings and beer and the next day they got slammed. but was the quarter actually bad? i have to tell when you i look at the numbers i liked what i see. wingstop delivered a top and bottom line beat, cut the same store sales and management raised the full year earnings forecast it wasn't a blowout, but the numbers weren't bad. what went wrong? bad timing they had the misfortune of
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reporting on the same day as the texas roadhouse. another chain that delivered disastrous numbers at the same time, while the stocks pulled back hard from the highs, so it's not that cheap. on the earnings basis. i have been recommending wingstop aggressively ever since we spoke to the ceo in february of 2017. he's given us a 137% gain. let's dig deeper with charlie morrison to find out more about the quarter and the company's prospects. welcome back to "mad money." all right, i went through every single downgrade like valuation, valuation, valuation. i saw the same thing only one other time in my career when pat doyle became ceo of domino's it was at 11 and it then doubled. went to 250 under him. can't this company have a similar trajectory >> i really believe we can and i think it starts with our growth trajectory that you have seen already over the past few years, the
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continued same-store sales growth that we have seen 14 soon to be 15 consecutive years of positive same-store sales growth grew from 10 to 12% each and every year i think it has the opportunity for that kind of trajectory. >> now, i know that some people are saying, wait a second, they are going to have rising construction costs, borrowing costs are higher for the franchisees. they can't maintain that growth. is that really a factor? >> not for us. our investment is quite small at $370,000 we have been able to maintain that average over the last five or six years they enjoy over $1.1 million in average unit volume. $370,000 investment. three to one sales to investment ratio. they'll continue to invest as long as everything keeps cooking the way it is. >> but you have to tell our viewers that this is not a rainbow pot of gold. it's not easy to get a franchise from you you have to demonstrate a level
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of proficiency. >> yeah. 80% of what we sell are to our franchisees today. we want you to be an experienced restaurant operator. >> i thought that this quarter you're talking about digital ordering, delivery you -- that's the game plan. >> it is the game plan there are four key drivers national advertising is a great opportunity to continue to generate brand awareness for the brand. when you look at digital delivery both of those two things go hand in hand we have a fully integrated seamless process for digital orders to come in. today 25% of the revenue comes from digital and then from delivery, we have been testing it for a little over a year as you know. we just announced we'll start the launch of delivery with los angeles coming up quickly followed by houston through 2019 we'll continue to advance delivery to about 80% of our
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restaurant base by the end of the year. >> you have a partnership with doordash and you're happy with them. >> we are happy with them. they take care of the logistics side of the equation we fully integrated our technology with them and it's a fantastic process for the operators. franchisees love it and the customers love it. >> i love international, how is it going >> it's going great. we opened in london with a line out the door and it's been fantastic. that's our tenth - >> i just came -- they have bad wings over this. >> well, now not anymore. >> all right. >> wingstop. so things are looking up and we're really excited about our international presence over 130 locations, continuing to grow. we'll continue to add two to three countries every other year build that foundation with solid infrastructure behind it so that we can continue to grow a long time into the future. >> another thing you did that domino's did, you like to give
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special dividends to shareholders you reward them. >> we did that two times since we have been a public company. in fact, if you look at wingstop since we have been a public company over a 200% total shareholder return, inclusive of the strength of the stock as well as the return of capital. >> natural voice recognition, we think voice is very important to technology you do too. >> we have been testing that already. early stages right now but what we see is the opportunity to digitize every transaction at wingstop no matter if you call, come in, or you use our web applications we think we have that opportunity well into the future. >> now, could you give me -- you call it crm in the comp -- is that salesforce's or your own -- >> it's a third party product we are leveraging to build the database and investing in front end technology so we won't use a third party for our databases. we want to build what's sustainable for delivery as
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well. >> you see my number, will - >> we'll know if you're a fan of lemon pepper you haven't ordered any, we'll serve up a message, hey, don't forget to add five more to your order. >> that's so good. how about the $15 package? >> it was the first time we nationally promoted a bundled deal, it happened at a perfect time for us that we had some softness in traffic. we restored traffic growth to the business this year in the third quarter. now year to date, positive 6.7 year to date and same-store sales with positive traffic. >> each month was better. >> absolutely. each sequential month has been stronger for us. >> and the -- one last question. i don't know if you're the best judge of it because you have such inexpensive, but great value. where do you see the consumer right now? strong >> seems very strong there are drivers for the consumer to have more money in their pocket and to go out and visit to wingstop and i think it's reflect give in the same-store sales growth and overall performance. >> well, i'm so glad when you
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came on the show i said this guy is real, the numbers are real i looked at the economics of owning one of them, it was too good to be true. because i'm not a franchisee, you only want successful people to do it if you want one at home, you have to have something good before you can get it from these guys charlie morrison, ceo and chairman of wingstop i see lots of prices going up. stick with cramer. tomorrow -- kick off the trading day with "squawk on the street." live from post 9 at the nyse. >> it was -- we all knew that we had been tracked what a terrible thing. gotten rid of tracking, right? >> i believe so. yes. >> still angry about it. >> i can tell. >> i was, i was angry about it. >> it all starts at 9:00 a.m. eastern.
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power generation assets. now when long term treasury yields start to tick higher this year, they got slammed but thanks to the flight to safe city trade they got the group back in october. it was doing just fine even in a slowdown which is why it's gained 3.5%. even though the average is hammered they raised the quarter last week, but can they keep climbing, i don't know let's speak to nick akin mr. akin, welcome back to "mad money." >> great to be back with you, jim. >> i have to tell your stock has been among the best in the month of october there are utilities that did better you lamented how well the stock is doing, given how great your earnings are lamented to the point that you sang some chaka khan what is that about >> yeah. they're up for the rock hall of fame this year so i thought i'd
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use that as reference to give our shareholders that warm and fuzzy feeling going forward. >> it's i feel for you, i get a warm feeling >> that's right. >> well, that is you i should tell people, nick is deeply involved with the rock & roll hall of fame, one of the greatest events in the world and -- it's in cleveland he takes it to heart but i have to tell you, nick, in the end your stock did do better than most stocks that i follow in the month of october a lot is because you had a great quarter. you should talk about how terrific it was. >> we did have a great quarter weather drove a lot of it. but obviously the 8.1% dividend increase was really very good for our investors. really showed the confidence that our board has in the business plan going forward. we're obviously seeing 5 to 7% earnings growth rate for the foreseeable future and certainly we expect dividends to be commensurate with that growth. we have a solid financial plan solid company.
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focused on capital deployment, particularly in transmission and other areas and certainly it just shows that our business plan going forward is very positive. >> now, nick, one of the things to happen in this quarter that was interesting to me, you measure yourself and your stuff is so transparent against the gdp of the rest of the country your areas did not outperform the gdp, so why was that >> that's right. for the first time we see some tempering of the economy, particularly when it's non-oil and gas related. oil and gas is doing fine. industrials grew by 2.4% but we saw residential and commercial growth come down a little bit. we think it's really driven by strong dollar. certainly some of the tariffs are having an impact on non-oil and gas related activities chemicals and so forth and we're seeing some level of tempering so we're watching that very closely as we go forward. >> i have been telling people, look, i'm very worried that the economy could slow down, because of the 5% mortgage rates and
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because of what i regard as what tariffs have done to this economy. but the reason i say it is not political. i looked at your numbers your numbers clearly indicate that if the economy is no longer accelerating at least the industrial economy, that does matter for america. >> yes, it absolutely does because you're seeing some -- really sort of -- it roads -- it erodes confidence and your mom and pop stores and the commercial big box stores, those kind of things you want to make sure that that continues to progress because residential will follow. industrial's are doing well. but only in particular sectors >> thank heavens, you are not a political person you are straight out telling us what your data shows and that's the data that i think that the fed should be looking at not just their federal reserve books that they have let me ask you, if the president
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were to call you and say, you know what, you have a lot of coal in your districts that you serve. i want you to use more coal. would you be able to explain it's more complex than that? >> yeah, i think i would it's much more complex than that and obviously we're trying to do things to develop those particular coal related territories like our appalachian sky initiative that focuses on really a lot of the people in those areas are well versed toward industrial type activity. so we are trying to get industrials to locate in those particular areas to give options going forward. but for coal, coal fired generation continues to fall in this country certainly exports. our big -- the big impact from that perspective particularly metallurgical coal. we want to see that continue to progress but i think it will be tempered relative to the coal fired generation so we have to think about what that means to the economies in those regions of the country. >> i was on the general electric
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call and they have a straight shooter in there now that company badly misjudged something that i think i may have misjudged with natural gas so cheap you would expect a lot of turbines would be built but the big -- you're in -- but the era of big projects is gone. >> i think you're seeing a much broader view of resources going forward. certainly renewables are coming into play. natural gas is being looked at as a backup source for renewables but you're also seeing we view transmission as a resource to bring renewables to market and to be able to optimize the entire grid from a resource perspective. and you're seeing energy efficiency in those smart analytics that are in place relative to the system that are really enabling us not to build that next central station generation facility. so you can expect that to continue to be tempered in the future. >> one of the reasons why i have been recommending your stock for years and years and years is you don't take big bets.
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there are utilities that have build big complexes that have wrecked that and that's your style. >> that's right. that's deliberate from our perspective because we're able to really have execution control around these projects and adjust based upon what we're seeing financially. so it really gives us an opportunity to focus on the ins and outs of those kinds of projects to accumulate to really the steady earnings dividend quality for the shareholders >> that's what shareholders want, you take the least risk and you give a consistent return that's what people want. nick akin, thank you president and ceo of the company. chaka khan, i don't know my gran ncr: as you grow older, your brain naturally
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lightning round is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? let's start with amy in nevada >> caller: hi, jim thank you for taking my call today. >> you're welcome. >> caller: i need your valuable advice valorian they're not worried about the trade war with china because they won't start trading until 2023 it go my - >> yeah. well, look, i'm a believer in the chairman the chairman has not let us down i'm talking -- you know, i'm talking about suki i have to do more work though. we have to get him back on kevin in massachusetts kevin. >> caller: hi, jim the biotech stock -- the biotech stock has recently received
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european approval for the breast cancer drug. the stock is pbyi puma biotech. >> i won't put a gun to my head i want to see what they say. you know how often they're dictated by what they report, so to be so presumptuous as to what they'll say ahead of time i can't do that jonathan in california >> caller: thank you for everything that you do and helping us understand this volatile market. my question is, should we start nibbling on some costco? >> i think you can buy a little costco the ones i like, i like costco, i like kohl's, i like walmart. i think those are all pretty good i like target. so i think it fits the pattern of what i think it's okay to buy. let's go to mitch in arizona mitch. >> caller: hi, jim. >> what's up >> caller: golden tate. >> golden tate can you believe it yeah, i think he let us do some screen passes, stretches the field.
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we're finally good i think we should pick up smallwood, that's probably off key. >> caller: exact sciences. >> still a big short position, i like the numbers to wendell in florida. >> caller: booyah, cramer. happy halloween. calling from coral spring, florida. >> okay. >> caller: i have a question i have a positioning xpo - >> the clients file for bankruptcy it will bring down the stock. they hired a buddy of mine out of goldman i think the weakness caused by the bankruptcy might be an opportunity to -- buy buy buy buy. let's go to vinny in illinois. vinny. >> caller: jim, how are you? >> good. >> caller: alliance technology - >> that was not a good quarter the competition has caught up to them they did not do the number, that was shocking to me.
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that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. [ buzzer ] >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade y. . jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade
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was actually from a company that reported a pretty bad quarter. sell sell sell but the company reports awful numbers and the stock sells, nobody cares, but when it surges high, that's a classic signal that the psychology of the market is changing and changing for the better it's a very important signal that many like me were looking for and we got it yesterday morning from masco, the giant buildings and material company and i think it carried over through the day yesterday and through today. if you go through the headlines about the maker of bath fixtures you will see how badly they're doing. housing is falling, fed is tightening, tariffs are expanding. of course masco's numbers are coming down, right they have to right up front the management cut the full year earnings forecast they have been what i call a terrific short almost an annuity. the stock's are down 35% from the highs in january but every so often we reach a point where the bad news is totally baked in and the short
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becomes a long that's what happened to masco yesterday. and reverberate throughout the group. they cut numbers in the stock rally more than 7% this is an important tell people, an important tell for the prodder market i want you to understand how it happened and give you the context so you can spot them yourself masco is a very well run company with excellent financial discipline and really great slots in the big box stores especially home depot. but because it's heavily tied to the l.a. housing market this was one of the best performing stocks around coming into the quarter. the higher interest rates and the higher costs by tariffs, they have been crushed they were loaded for bear, and wall street was trashing this to sunday but they didn't hear the story they were expecting. first it turns out that raw costs, raw costs for masco have peaked wood, copper, zinc even titanium oxide, it's a
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whitener they're all coming down. when demands rise up, commodity prices fall off a cliff. but that was unexpected. it is going to bolster masco's bottom line next year. second, housing has slowed and the repair and remodeling business has gotten stronger when people are reluctant to buy new homes they spend more on renovations. and home equity loans have gotten more expensive, but the job market is so strong people don't need to take out a loan to renovate big companies like masco they have an abilityto pass on tariffs and to profit from them. get this i got to quote this at length because it's so important. they had a statement on the call that just stunned me they wrote, we import approximately $600 million of components and finished goods that come under the tariffs. then they go on if the 301 tariffs rise to 25% as is planned on january 1, this would amount to $150 million of inflation. or roughly 2.7% of our annual costs of goods sold.
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this is less than the amount of raw material in other inflation we dealt with in 2018. end quote. masco dealt with worse this past year and sales held up fine. what else? we believe this amount of additional cost is manageable through supply chain repositioning and other internal productivity measures end quote. means hey listen, don't cut our numbers too deep because we could beat them. then the coup de gras. they're going to shift production from china to southeast asia over time can't do it tomorrow and to the plants in indiana, tennessee, california, north carolina and texas. but the competition, oh, how about this, how about this people, quote, many competitors such as private label source nearly 100% of their products from china so we would have a competitive advantage against the competitors. in other words, if you're nimble like masco, the tariffs can give you a real edge over the private label competition. you have a stock that's down 32%
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for the year even as the raw costs are going down, the end markets are holding up thanks to repair and remodeling demand and the supply chain is strong enough that the tariffs may allow the company to crush the private label competition. that's how a stock like masco managed to rally on seemingly horrific news. i bet it's got more room to run. that's how you get a bottom in a terrible group stick with cramer.
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all right. they did it again. they pronounced f.a.n.g. dead. let me tell you f.a.n.g. is the greatest thing i have ever come up with when it comes to the stocks what i'm upset about is the linkage by the etf i'm proud that i identified them five years ago and you have made a killing. r.i.p. to them no way as a matter of fact, i like them maybe down here. a little more than ever. there's a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it for you right here at "mad money." happy halloween. see you tomorrow
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>> welcome to the shark tank, where entrepreneurs seeking an investment will face these sharks. if they hear a great ide, they'll invest their own money or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪ bam! good luck, rook. good luck, nick. thank you. one more. there's only one rule in "shark tank" -- don't screw it up. [ laughs ] narrator: first into the tank is an innovative way to control bad habits. man: here we go. five, four... here we go. man #2: four, three -- man: four, three, two -- [ exhales sharply ] hello, sharks. i'm ryan tseng.
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